Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.15 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 38.26 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in its pig farming business, with both volume and price increasing, alongside effective cost control measures leading to a turnaround in profitability [7][8]. - The report highlights a robust expansion in pig production capacity and a continuous reduction in breeding costs, aiming for an average cost of 12 CNY/kg by 2025 [7][8]. - The company is strategically advancing its slaughtering business, which has shown improved profitability, achieving monthly profits by the end of 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 137,947 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17,881 million CNY, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 42,630 million CNY in the previous year [7][8]. - The company sold 71.6 million pigs in 2024, a 12.20% increase from the previous year, with a notable rise in average selling prices [7][8]. - The complete cost of pig farming decreased to 14 CNY/kg in 2024, with further reductions expected in early 2025 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for EPS is 3.55 CNY for 2025, 4.47 CNY for 2026, and 5.82 CNY for 2027, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [2][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 6.01% in 2025, followed by 9.97% in 2026 and 2027 [2][8]. Business Segmentation - The pig farming segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projected sales volume increases of 20% in 2025, followed by 7% in the subsequent years [8]. - The slaughtering and meat processing segment is also expected to grow, with revenue forecasted to increase by 20% in 2025 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The company is compared with industry peers, showing a slightly higher PE ratio than the industry average, reflecting its position as a market leader with potential for high-quality growth [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 178.81 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company sold 71.602 million pigs in 2024, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with a target of 72-78 million for 2025 [1] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to a target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The slaughtering segment achieved monthly profitability in December 2024, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to 50 yuan in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business and enhancing its technological capabilities in smart farming applications [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 206.29 billion yuan, 220.67 billion yuan, and 353.65 billion yuan respectively, with EPS expected to be 3.88, 4.03, and 6.46 yuan [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the same years are forecasted to be 10, 10, and 6 times [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 142.48 billion yuan in 2025 to 162.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 13.77% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant turnaround in 2024, achieving a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a revenue increase of 24.43% to 137.95 billion yuan [7] - The company experienced a notable increase in pig sales, with a total of 71.60 million pigs sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [7] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 16.75 yuan/kg, up 11.62% year-on-year, contributing to an estimated profit of 250 yuan per pig sold [7] - The company aims to reduce production costs further, targeting a cost of 12 yuan/kg by 2025, down from 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [7] - The company plans to increase its pig output to between 72 million and 78 million pigs in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10% to 19% year-on-year [7] - The company has implemented a cash dividend plan, proposing a distribution of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 30.83 billion yuan, which indicates a commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 135.50 billion yuan in 2025, a slight decrease of 1.8% from 2024, with net profit expected to reach 20.83 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.5% [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 24.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 23.1% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.81 yuan in 2025, up from 3.30 yuan in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 178.81 billion yuan, reversing a loss of 42.63 billion yuan in the previous year [5] - The company plans to slaughter between 72 million to 78 million pigs in 2025, with a total of 71.6 million pigs slaughtered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [5] - The company has improved its gross profit margin significantly, with a comprehensive gross margin of 19.05% in 2024, up by 15.94 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company has established a nationwide pork sales network, with 70 service stations across 20 provincial-level administrative regions [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024 to 1465.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 6.20% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 178.81 billion yuan in 2024 to 189.46 billion yuan in 2025, a growth rate of 5.95% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.47 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times [6] Operational Highlights - The company’s total pig slaughtering volume in 2024 was 12.52 million heads, with a revenue contribution from slaughtering and meat products of 24.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03% [5] - The company has achieved a monthly profit in its slaughtering business as of December 2024 [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1876.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 2823.87 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to improve to 19.86% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.69% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21.53% in 2025 [9] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 58.68% by the end of 2024 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, turning from a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in the previous year [5]. - The company plans to slaughter between 72 million to 78 million pigs in 2025, with a total of 71.60 million pigs slaughtered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [5]. - The company has improved its gross profit margin significantly, with a comprehensive gross margin of 19.05% in 2024, up by 15.94 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: The company reported a revenue of 1379.47 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 178.81 million yuan, showing a significant recovery from previous losses [5][6]. - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 411.72 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.61%, and a net profit of 74.00 million yuan, also turning from a loss [5]. - **Cost Management**: The company has optimized its breeding costs, with the total breeding cost dropping to approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024, and further down to 13 yuan/kg by the end of the year [5]. Production and Sales - The company has established a nationwide pork sales network, with over 70 service stations across 20 provincial-level administrative regions [5]. - The average selling price of commodity pigs was approximately 16.5 yuan/kg in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.91% [5]. Future Projections - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 3.47 yuan in 2025 and 4.80 yuan in 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11 times and 8 times, respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations for its 2025 output plan, with costs dropping to 12.9 yuan per kilogram as of February 2025 [1][5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [3][9] - The company plans to slaughter 72-78 million commodity pigs and 8-12 million piglets in 2025, with a strong foundation laid by a 12.2% year-on-year increase in breeding sows [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares [2][3] - The company's total assets at the end of 2024 were 187.65 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.7%, down 3.43 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 150.66 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 22.46 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6% [9] Production and Sales - The company plans to increase its pig output to 90.5 million, 95.9 million, and 100.49 million from 2025 to 2027, with commodity pig output projected at 78 million, 81 million, and 83.43 million respectively [7] - The company has achieved a significant increase in piglet sales, with 2.19 million sold in January-February 2025, accounting for 16% of total output [3][6] Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its breeding costs to approximately 13.1 yuan per kilogram in Q4 2024, with a target to lower it to 12 yuan per kilogram in 2025 [5][6] - The cost of weaned piglets has reached 260-270 yuan per head, providing a competitive advantage in the industry [3][5]

当前公司海外业务团队正在熟悉当地市场及产业发展状况，公司会根据未来战略发展需求制定不同国家 和地区的业务发展方式及目标。 2024年，公司与越南本土养殖公司BAF达成合作协议，为其提供养猪技术服务方案、硬件支持、人员培 训等，致力于提升越南当地生猪养殖企业的养殖水平和管理能力。 人民财讯3月20日电，牧原股份3与19日在2024年年度报告交流会上表示，当前，越南及周边东南亚国家 的生猪养殖行业从业者对于非瘟防控、猪场改造、硬件升级、生物安全防控体系等需求较为迫切，这也 成为公司海外业务开展的切入点。 ...

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 137.947 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 17.881 billion, a significant year-on-year growth of 519.42%, marking a turnaround from losses [4] - Net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 37.543 billion, up 279.50% year-on-year [4] - The asset-liability ratio at the end of 2024 was 58.68%, a decrease of 3.43 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] Livestock Production - The company sold 71.602 million pigs in 2024, including 65.477 million market pigs, 5.659 million piglets, and 465,000 breeding pigs [5] - By the end of 2024, the annual pig breeding capacity was approximately 81 million heads, with a breeding sow inventory of 3.512 million heads [5] - The average cost of pig farming decreased from CNY 15.8/kg in January-February to around CNY 13/kg by the end of the year, with an annual average cost of CNY 14/kg [5] - For 2025, the company expects market pig output to be between 72 million and 78 million heads, and piglet output between 8 million and 12 million heads [5] Slaughtering and Meat Processing - In 2024, the company slaughtered 12.5244 million pigs, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 43% [6] - The company has invested in 10 slaughterhouses with an annual capacity of 29 million heads [6] - The average loss per head decreased from CNY 70 in 2023 to around CNY 50 in 2024, achieving profitability in December [6] - The company aims to maintain a capacity utilization rate of over 60% in 2025 and improve product and channel structures [13] Cost Reduction Strategies - The company achieved its cost target of CNY 13/kg by December 2024, with plans to reduce the average cost to CNY 12/kg in 2025 [7] - Key focus areas for cost reduction include health management, breeding, nutritional formulation, and smart applications [8] Capital Expenditure Plans - The company plans to maintain a low level of capital expenditure in 2024, with an estimated amount of CNY 9 billion for 2025 [9] - Specific allocations include CNY 3 billion for pig house upgrades and CNY 4-5 billion for the Zhengzhou industrial park and breeding platform construction [9] Debt Reduction Goals - The company aims to reduce its overall debt by approximately CNY 10 billion in 2025, continuing the trend of decreasing the asset-liability ratio [10] Smart Agriculture Development - The company has made progress in smart agriculture, focusing on health management, nutritional feeding, breeding efficiency, and personnel empowerment through AI technology [11][12] International Business Development - The company has partnered with a local Vietnamese company to provide pig farming technology services, hardware support, and training to enhance local farming practices [14]

牧原股份 20250319 摘要 2024 年公司销售生猪 7,160.2 万头，其中商品猪 6,547.7 万头，死猪 565.9 万 头，种猪 46.5 万头。截至 2024 年末，公司生猪养殖产能约 8,100 万头，每年 母猪存栏 351.2 万头。公司的生猪养殖完全成本从 2024 年初的 15.8 元每公斤 下降到年底的 13 元每公斤左右，全年的平均成本在 14 元每公斤左右。到 2025 年 2 月，公司最新的生猪养殖完全成本已降至 12.9 元每公斤。 公司对未来三年的出栏目标和资本开支有何规划？ 牧原股份预计 2025 年商品猪出栏量为 7,200 万头到 7,800 万头，仔猪出栏量为 800 万头到 1,200 万头。未来三年的出栏目标将逐渐达到理想产能状态，并将 仔猪出栏作为重要业务和利润增长点，通过仔猪业务带动更多农户和不同规模 的养殖群体共同发展。在资本开支方面，公司设定了 2025 年的目标为 90 亿元 左右，主要用于现有猪舍的维护升级改造，以及郑州产业园项目，该产业园将 打造超洁净种猪生产平台。 公司在降低成本方面有哪些具体措施？ 公司在降低成本方面采取了多项措施，包括疾病 ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 3月20日，猪茅牧原股份将发布2024年度财报业绩。 根据此前的预告，牧原2024年度的归母净利润将达170亿元–180亿元，由上年同期亏损42.63亿元转为增长约5.0-5.2倍。扣非净利润190亿元– 200亿元，由上年同期亏损39.18亿元转为增长约5.85-6.1倍。 预告解释，利润巨幅扭亏的主要原因是报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。 也就是量价齐升，同时成本下降，使得利润-成本剪刀差重新急速扩大。 这无疑是一份堪称非常亮眼的数据。 "猪茅"牧原的业绩飙升，会是今年猪行业迎来景气周期的开始吗？ 从历史看，每一轮猪周期大约持续3-4年，本质是能繁母猪补栏→育肥→出栏的滞后性引发的猪肉价格波动。 简单来说，当猪价上涨时，养殖户扩产导致未来供给过剩，价格下跌；亏损后产能出清，供给减少又推动价格回升，如此循环往复。猪企业对 应的也有经典的四阶段为：亏损去产能→供给收缩→价格上涨→盈利扩产。 自2003年以来，中国生猪产业大致经历了六轮完整周期。 其中，在由非洲猪瘟引发的第五轮超级 ...