兴业证券指出，行业配置方面坚持"景气成长+红利"策略，配置高股息资产以持续获得稳定的现金回 报。反内卷政策有助于提高利润率和ROE，企业利润率对股票市场收益至关重要。在境内股市日益机构 化的背景下，市场更关注盈利与股东回报，而非短暂的收益弹性。参考日本经验，净利润率的扩张能显 著推动股价回报。此外，政策对高内卷行业出台供给侧优化措施，缓解低价竞争，推动光伏、电池、化 工等传统行业利润修复，这些板块现金流改善、分红率提升，与成长资产形成互补，为投资者带来周期 稳定和现金收益机会。 红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从沪市中精选分红能力强、记录稳 定的优质企业，覆盖银行、煤炭及交运等高股息行业。指数侧重于选取具有高现金股息率和良好流动性 的证券，以体现稳健的价值投资风格。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选 ...

红利国企ETF（510720）跟踪的是上国红利指数（000151），该指数从沪市中筛选分红能力显著且分红 记录稳定的优质企业，成分股涵盖银行、煤炭及交运等高股息行业。通过现金股息率和流动性筛选机 制，该指数集中体现了高股息上市公司的整体表现，为投资者提供稳定收益的参考标的。 每日经济新闻 西部证券指出，"红利+"是短期稳妥的配置策略，是第一波回流消费资金首选。随着高端消费、速冻等 部分大众品数据回暖，市场会逐渐重回关注消费板块，但由于底部盘整周期较长、消费景气度分歧较 大，当前红利+成为阻力最小方向。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic growth shows cost reduction and widespread decline in steel prices, with production - related indicators such as power plant daily consumption, blast furnace operation rate, tire operation rate, and loom operation rate showing different trends; demand - side data for real estate, automobiles, steel, cement, glass, and shipping also vary [1][4]. - Inflation is characterized by the agricultural product price index being higher than in recent years, with different price trends for various agricultural products; PPI shows weak oil prices, and different trends for copper and aluminum prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices 1.1 Production: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - **1.1.1 Production End: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On December 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 79.7 tons, a 2.3% increase from December 2; on December 2, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 190.8 tons, a 3.9% increase from November 25. Heating demand in the north boosts power consumption, but demand in non - power industries has limited growth [4][12]. - **1.1.2 Production End: Overall Decline in Blast Furnace Operation Rate** - On December 5, the national blast furnace operation rate was 80.1%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from November 28; the capacity utilization rate was 87.1%, also a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease. However, the blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 2.4 percentage points. Heavy - pollution response measures and weakening demand in the off - season led to the decline [4][17]. - **1.1.3 Production End: Slight Recovery in Tire Operation Rate** - On December 4, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 63.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from November 27; the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 70.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point increase. The loom operation rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region continued to decline [4][20]. 1.2 Demand: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices - **1.2.1 Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From December 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 256,000 square meters, a 42.0% increase from November, but a decline compared to the same period in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased year - on - year [4][25]. - **1.2.2 Demand End: Weak Growth in Automobile Retail Sales** - In December, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year. The low growth was due to high sales in December last year and the weakening impact of the trade - in policy [4][29]. - **1.2.3 Demand End: Widespread Decline in Steel Prices** - On December 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.4%, 2.1%, 2.7%, and 0.5% respectively compared to December 2. Steel inventory reduction accelerated [4][34]. - **1.2.4 Demand End: Moderate Increase in Cement Prices** - On December 9, the national cement price index increased by 0.4% compared to December 2, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions performing better. However, price increases were difficult to implement due to high inventory in some areas. The year - on - year decline in cement prices narrowed [4][35]. - **1.2.5 Demand End: Glass Prices Reached a New Low in the Second Half of the Year** - On December 9, the active glass futures contract price was 985 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decrease from December 2. Weak demand and high inventory were the main reasons [4][40]. - **1.2.6 Demand End: Container Shipping Freight Index Turned Down Again** - On December 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% compared to November 28. Weak market demand and expanding container ship capacity dragged down freight rates [4][44]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years - **2.1.1 Pork Prices Rose and Then Fell** - On December 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.6 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from December 2. The pressure came from the concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The month - on - month decline widened [4][49]. - **2.1.2 Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years** - On December 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to December 2. Different agricultural products had different price trends. The year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the agricultural product price index were 6.0% and 2.4% respectively [4][55]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Oil Prices - **2.2.1 Oil Prices Weakened** - On December 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $62.8 and $58.3 per barrel respectively, a 2.2% and 0.7% decrease from December 2. Oversupply expectations and weakening geopolitical support led to the decline [4][58]. - **2.2.2 Copper Prices Rose and Aluminum Prices Fell** - On December 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.0% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to December 2. The domestic commodity index showed different trends in month - on - month changes [4][63]. - **2.2.3 Most Industrial Product Prices Declined Month - on - Month** - Since December, most industrial product prices declined month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices narrowed, except for cold - rolled sheet and glass [4][65].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.1 times and PB at 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 77% and 39% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.9 times and PB at 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14 times and PB at 1.5 times, at the historical 62% and 32% percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 32.4 times and PB at 2.2 times, at the historical 60% and 43% percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 46.5 times and PB at 2.4 times, at the historical 66% and 44% percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 59.5 times and PB at 2.6 times, at the historical 76% and 60% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 39.8 times and PB at 5.1 times, at the historical 32% and 57% percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 149.6 times and PB at 5.9 times, at the historical 95% and 62% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE is at 2.8 times and PB at 3.5 times, at the historical 20% and 57% percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices continue to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures down 1.6% and spot prices stable [3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3.0% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales up by 27.2% [3] Cyclical Industries - The copper price increased by 4.4%, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance and characteristics of the Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720), which has consistently provided monthly dividends since its launch, with a current monthly dividend rate of approximately 3‰ to 4‰ [1][9] - The ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which has a relatively high dividend yield compared to similar indices, historically ranging from 4% to 7% [3][7] - The index is expected to undergo annual adjustments in December, which may lead to the removal of certain large-cap bank stocks that have not maintained a competitive dividend yield [2][3] Group 2 - The current industry distribution of the index is primarily focused on high-dividend sectors such as banking, coal, and transportation, with potential for future diversification as some component stocks' dividend yields decline [3][8] - Historical performance indicates that the Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has outperformed other similar indices in terms of absolute returns from 2021 to 2024 [5][7] - The article suggests that the current market environment, characterized by low-risk returns and a focus on dividend-paying stocks, presents a favorable opportunity for long-term investment in dividend strategies [8][9]

华创证券指出，中证A500行业配置聚焦四大方向：科创、顺周期、出海及地产链。科创领域受益 于康波周期下的科技博弈，估值上限有望继续打开，重点关注光学元件、PCB、集成电路等细分领域； 顺周期行业在再通胀交易中表现突出，尤其是供给紧张的周期（有色/化工/钢铁/煤炭）、制造（机械/ 医药/交运）、消费（养殖/纺服）及科技（消费电子/光学光电子）板块。出海逻辑强调产能全球化布 局，关注电新、机械、通信等高景气赛道；地产链则处于中期触底阶段，建筑建材、家居家电、物管等 具备困境反转的高赔率机会。行业新旧动能转换中，科技制造ROE稳步抬升。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 把握A股机遇，或可关注中证A500ETF（159338），中证A500创新指数编制方案，以国际通用 的"行业均衡"方式编制。从客户数量来看，根据2025年中报，国泰中证A500ETF总户数位列 ...

大摩闭门会：新能源、锂电、交运行业更新 20251203 摘要 火电核准项目将在今年到"十五五"前期陆续投产，2021 年起每年有 10-12 台核电机组核准和开工，预计 2027-2028 年迎来核电投产高峰 期，关注相关产业链投资机会。 光伏方面，虽然"十四五"期间增长迅猛，但受政策和推进速度影响， 预计 2026 年光伏装机容量将下降，2027 年开始可能恢复性增长，需 关注政策变化对市场的影响。 风电整体需求强劲，"十五五"期间年装机容量预计 100-120 吉瓦，海 上风电受益于深远海发展规划，长期发展潜力巨大，关注技术进步和成 本下降带来的投资机会。 储能行业快速发展，独立储能投资积极性高，受益于新能源占比提升、 政策支持以及稳定的收入来源，关注储能技术创新和商业模式变革。 电网投资将持续增加，"十五五"期间特高压投资规模巨大，智能微网 发展潜力可期，关注电网设备升级和智能化改造带来的投资机会。 2025 年电池装机量预计达 150GWh，2026 年行业预期增速 50%- 100%，储能市场经济性显现，预计 2026 年政策调整后储能系统将更 广泛应用，关注电池技术和储能系统集成商。 上海机场和 ...

在经历10月红利板块整体回暖后，11月红利资产的表现则明显分化。 Wind数据显示，11月，银行、石油石化、有色板块继续成为避险资金的核心配置方向。其中，银行板 块在10月上涨4.18%后，11月再涨3.1%。石油石化板块同样如此，在10月获得5.68%的涨幅后，11月再 攀升3.37%。有色板块截至11月末已连续6个月收红，不过11月涨幅收窄为0.61%。而电力、交运、公用 事业等传统红利板块则结束了10月的上行，在11月相继回调，相关指数分别下跌2.23%、2.49%、 1.76%。 业内人士表示，资金正从"全面防御"向"结构性高股息"切换。业内人士预计，未来红利资产还将继续分 化，资金将更聚焦于分红稳定、基本面扎实的优质标的。其中，"稳"字头的细分红利板块或可成为避险 或者"安全垫"资产，高股息叠加顺周期的细分板块则是配置型资金的重要选择。 红利资产现结构性分化 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉强调，红利资产近期已呈现结构性分化特征，他预计，未来这一分化态势大概率 会持续。 "之所以会出现这种情况，主要有两大因素影响了红利资产的股息率变化。"宝晓辉解释道，一是股价上 涨、下跌带来的"被动股息率变化"，二是经营基本面 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a shift in investment strategy for Chinese assets from a short-term focus to a long-term perspective, driven by significant changes in long-term factors and a restructuring of the valuation system [2][15][32] - It highlights the advantages of RMB assets from a global perspective, including a stable fiscal environment, a complete industrial chain, a talent pool, and attractive valuations [2][3][15] - The report identifies key points for sustaining growth, focusing on economic construction and the expansion of the middle class, indicating a transition from low prices to a new phase of recovery [2][3][15] Group 2 - The report discusses a new macro paradigm characterized by a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven growth, emphasizing efficient operations and high return on equity (ROE) [3][16] - It notes the completion of the transition from old to new economic drivers, with a decline in the real estate sector's drag on A-share ROE, and a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors [3][16] - The report mentions a change in the investment landscape, where equities are seen as a preservation tool rather than just a financing instrument, leading to improved asset quality and reduced volatility [3][16] Group 3 - The analysis predicts a "re-inflation" phase in the second half of the bull market, driven by improved liquidity, supply-side adjustments, and demand stimulation, with a projected net profit growth of 11.1% for non-financial A-shares in 2026 [4][17] - It outlines the expected performance of the stock market, with a neutral return of 7.8% and an optimistic scenario suggesting a 31.5% return, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking service consumption subsidies and housing price stabilization as key demand drivers [4][17] Group 4 - The report advocates for a focus on growth quality factors and large-cap growth stocks, suggesting that high-quality growth will outperform pure cash dividends in the current market environment [5][18] - It identifies key sectors for investment, including finance, high-end manufacturing, electronics, and consumer goods, which are expected to lead the market upward [5][18] - The report highlights the importance of technology and cyclical sectors, as well as the potential for overseas expansion and the real estate consumption chain to drive future growth [5][18] Group 5 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: technology innovation, cyclical sectors, overseas expansion, and the real estate consumption chain [6][19] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying high-potential stocks, referred to as "ten-bagger" opportunities, and building a core portfolio of quality large-cap growth stocks [6][19] - The report suggests that the current market environment presents unique opportunities for investors to capitalize on structural transformations and growth potential [6][19]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market shows that the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) has a PE of 21.0x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 38th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 42nd percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.2x and a PB of 5.1x, at the 30th and 56th percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 149.7x and a PB of 5.9x, at the 95th and 62nd percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 7.0%, while the average price of silicon wafers fell by 3.1% [2] - Battery materials saw cobalt prices rise by 1.1% and nickel by 2.4%, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices increasing by 6.7% [2] - Wind and solar power installations from January to October 2025 increased by 52.9% and 39.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] Financial Sector - Insurance premiums from January to October 2025 grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous nine months [2] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.9%, while the price index for cement fell by 0.7% [2] - Glass prices rose by 1.5% for spot prices and 5.7% for futures [2] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.9%, while the wholesale price of pork fell by 0.4% [2] - The price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.04% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - The value of overseas contracted engineering projects increased by 7.9% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [2] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.19 per barrel [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 12.5% [2]