1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Weak Consolidation for Soybean Meal**: Although the soybean meal inventory increased slightly week - on - week and is lower year - on - year, the estimated soybean imports in April are nearly 2 million tons higher year - on - year, indicating a good short - term supply. Overnight US soybean data is not strongly bearish. Soybean meal is expected to open slightly higher and consolidate. Due to the loosening domestic fundamentals, be cautious about going long and manage positions carefully. Pay attention to the cost impact from crude oil fluctuations [1][5]. - **Weak Consolidation for Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal and closed slightly lower. The bearish pressure of Canadian rapeseed arrivals in April has been largely reflected in the market. With domestic rapeseed approaching harvest, be cautious about going long and it's advisable to wait and see. Focus on the subsequent inventory build - up of domestic rapeseed meal, the trend of crude oil, and the Canadian rapeseed planting report [1][6]. - **Short - term Bullish for Palm Oil**: Palm oil rose and then fell. Although the March Malaysian palm oil data is good and there is a growing call for Indonesia's B50, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia is expected to gradually recover in April. Be cautious about chasing long positions and manage positions well. Pay short - term attention to the guidance from the crude oil market [1][9]. - **Short - term Bullish for Soybean Oil**: Domestic soybean imports in April are optimistic, with sufficient short - term supply. However, it is greatly disturbed by the crude oil market. Manage positions well and focus on the final situation of Brazilian soybean export inspections and the subsequent trend of crude oil [1]. - **Short - term Bullish for Rapeseed Oil**: Domestic rapeseed oil is in a low - inventory state. Although a large amount of Canadian rapeseed will arrive in April, the short - term spot market strongly supports the near - month contract. The near - month rapeseed oil is expected to remain strongly volatile, but be cautious about going long due to the approaching domestic rapeseed harvest. Treat it as an event - driven market caused by crude oil market disturbances and participate in the short - term. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of crude oil, the outlook for Canadian rapeseed planting area, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory build - up [1]. - **Beware of Callback for Cotton**: Internationally, the new - year US cotton is expected to decline more than previously expected, and its exports are at a record high, so it is expected to run strongly in the short - term and narrow the price gap with domestic cotton. Domestically, the current spot basis is still high, and the downstream orders and machine - running rate are better than the same period, supporting the short - term cotton price. However, beware of the over - consumption of April orders due to pre - demand, and the high import of cotton and yarn puts pressure on inventory reduction. If the reduction in planting area in early April is limited, the market will face a high callback demand, and be cautious about holding long positions in the next two weeks [1][13]. - **Pressured Operation for Red Dates**: Currently, the market is in the off - season with a loose supply - demand pattern. The inventory reduction is slow, and rising temperatures will further suppress red date consumption. Without positive factors, the enthusiasm for holding positions by funds has significantly decreased. However, the current valuation is relatively low, so the deep - decline space is also limited. The market is expected to operate under pressure [1][15]. - **Differentiated Performance for Live Pigs**: As the spot price further declines, the losses of fattening pigs and piglets are deepening, which may accelerate the reduction of sow inventory. However, the high supply base of live pigs this year remains unchanged, and the contango structure of far - month contracts may strengthen further. The demand is in the off - season, and the market may continue to push down prices. Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure, and it's difficult for the market to reverse in the short - term. You can pay attention to the bottom - inventory build - up rebound of medium - term contracts. Far - month contracts such as 01 and subsequent ones may see the expected acceleration of production capacity reduction on the supply side. Continue to pay attention to the bottom - buying opportunities or reverse - spread configurations driven by the decline of near - month contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract) closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3288.86 yuan/ton, down 11.43 yuan or 0.35%. The soybean crushing profit and basis have changed to some extent [3]. - **Industry Information**: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 1.784 billion tons, higher than the previous estimate. The USDA planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters expectation. As of March 1, 2026, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 2.1 billion bushels, up 10% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The national rapeseed meal market price dropped by 0 - 30 yuan/ton. As of March 27, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 97,000 tons, down 31,000 tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 23,000 tons, down 1,000 tons week - on - week; the unexecuted contracts were 50,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week [6]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week of March 22, Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 33.2% to 195,000 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to March 22, 2026, Canadian rapeseed exports were 5.0739 million tons, 23.5% less than the same period of the previous year [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract) closed at 9866 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The national average price was 9855 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 1.65%. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory decreased by 15,800 tons week - on - week to 792,400 tons [8]. - **Industry Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 increased by 56.7% to 1,607,065 tons compared with the same period of the previous month. The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 20 increased by 0.92% [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: The futures prices of domestic cotton contracts such as CF2605, CF2609, etc. declined slightly. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) increased by 27 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The inventory of national commercial cotton decreased by 150,000 tons to 4.8938 million tons [10]. - **Industry Information**: Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production is estimated to be 3.7951 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease. India's cotton planting area in the 2026 rainy season is expected to increase significantly, with a maximum increase of 20%. In China, the new - year seed cotton purchase price is expected to rise, and the 26/27 cotton production is estimated to be 7.24 million tons, a decrease of more than 6% year - on - year. From January to February, China's cotton imports increased by 41.0% year - on - year, and the yarn imports increased by 40.2% year - on - year [11][12]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: The futures prices of red date contracts such as CJ2605, CJ2609, etc. declined slightly. The spot prices in various regions were relatively stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 81 tons to 11,459 tons, still 656 tons higher than the same period [14]. - **Industry Information**: In the production area, Xinjiang jujube farmers are carrying out pruning and fertilization. In the downstream market, the trading volume in Hebei and Guangdong markets is light, and the market is in the off - season [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The futures prices of live pig contracts such as Ih2605, Ih2607, etc. declined. The national average slaughter price remained unchanged at 9420 yuan/ton. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume decreased by 12.23% month - on - month. The profit of pig slaughtering and self - raising is in a loss state [16]. - **Industry Information**: On the supply side, the intention of farmers to reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter has increased, and the second - fattening is sporadic. The number of piglets born in February increased, and the reduction of sow inventory is slow. On the demand side, the terminal consumption is weak, and the slaughter enterprises mainly purchase on demand [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales, but considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3727, down 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3440, down 13; JD09 closed at 3778, down 11 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 287, up 9; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 338, down 2; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 51, down 7 [2]. - **Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.01. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.18, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.26, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices were stable or falling [4]. - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 5.02 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the cost of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2449 yuan, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3260 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.69 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 11.71 yuan, down 3.75 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in February was about 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Chicken Culling**: In the week of March 19, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 15.4 million, an increase of 5.8% from the previous week. The average culling age was 505 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6898 tons, an increase of 7.2% from the previous week, in the middle - low position of the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of March 19, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a recovery of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 10.39 yuan per chicken, a recovery of 0.2 yuan per chicken from the previous week. The average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

Core Insights - The report analyzes the commodity bull market of the 1970s and 1980s, attributing it to the collapse of the monetary credit system, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic mismanagement, which collectively led to a systemic revaluation of assets [1][12] - Understanding this historical cycle is crucial for assessing current asset allocation strategies amid structural challenges in global monetary credit and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][12] Commodity Price Mechanism (1970-1980) - The commodity price surge during this period was driven by three main forces: the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic governance failures [8][12] - The first phase (1970-1972) saw the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system, leading to significant price increases in gold and fertilizers due to supply shortages and increased usage [14][18] - The second phase (1973-1974) was marked by the first oil crisis, where oil prices surged from $2.7 to $13 per barrel, a 381% increase, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply cuts [24][28] - The third phase (1975-1977) experienced economic recession and high inflation, with mixed commodity performance; while many prices fell, oil and coal prices remained strong [31][33] - The fourth phase (1978-1980) was characterized by the second oil crisis, with oil prices reaching $40 per barrel, driven by geopolitical instability and inflation expectations [35][36] Market Reactions - The energy sector consistently outperformed during the commodity bull market, with significant excess returns noted in the energy index during periods of inflation [2][12] - The "Nifty Fifty" phenomenon emerged in the early 1970s, driven by fiscal and monetary expansion, but ultimately collapsed due to macroeconomic reversals and external shocks like the oil crises [12][14] Optimal Assets in Stagflation - Precious metals and oil were identified as optimal assets during stagflation periods, with gold being the most reliable core investment [2][12] - The report suggests that if geopolitical tensions ease, a return to a tech and cyclical market focus may occur, benefiting sectors like non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and semiconductors [12][14] - Conversely, prolonged geopolitical conflicts could lead to stagflation risks, making gold, oil, and chemical sectors critical areas for investment [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for precious metals in the short term, with potential for recovery in the medium to long term [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The precious metals sector is currently under pressure due to tightening liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve, but concerns over "stagflation" may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal in the medium term [1][3][9]. - The energy and chemical sector is experiencing heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation in this area [1][4][19]. - The black metal sector, represented by iron ore, is less sensitive to geopolitical issues and is more influenced by domestic macro policies, indicating a potential for a fluctuating market [1][16]. - Industrial metals are facing downward pressure from tightening liquidity and stagflation expectations, although aluminum prices may remain relatively strong due to supply disruptions [1][14]. - Agricultural products are expected to see increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with certain commodities like soybean oil potentially offering better value compared to industrial metals [1][21]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The South China precious metals index has decreased by 13.73% over the past two weeks, with gold and silver prices also declining significantly [3][8]. - Historical data from the 1970s oil crises shows that while gold and silver may initially drop in value, they tend to rebound over longer periods [9][12]. Energy and Chemicals - The South China energy and chemical index has increased by 1.52% recently, but geopolitical factors remain a significant risk for oil prices [4][19]. - Brent crude oil prices have shown fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [19]. Black Metals - The South China black metal index has risen by 0.63%, with iron ore prices showing stability amidst mixed domestic demand signals [16]. Industrial Metals - The South China non-ferrous metal index has decreased by 2.05%, with copper and aluminum prices under pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions [14][19]. Agricultural Products - The South China agricultural index has seen a decline of 3.03%, with soybean oil prices expected to remain strong due to their role as a substitute for fossil fuels [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which has a wide - ranging impact on various industries such as energy, metals, and shipping. - Different industries show different trends. Some industries are supported by cost and supply - demand factors, while others are restricted by high inventory or weak demand. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index shows a low - opening and high - walking pattern, with sector rotation and overall volatility. The market has low - level buying power but lacks the impetus for further upward movement. It is recommended to use grid operations for unilateral trading, conduct IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the end of the quarter, the central bank injects liquidity, and the bond market sentiment is positive. However, the short - end may face adjustment pressure after the quarter. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading, hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) in moderation, and try to short the 30Y new - old bond spread (TL - 30Y active bond) [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market has limited changes, and the price fluctuates. The US soybean market lacks bullish support, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term. For trading, it is suggested to be bearish on the short - term for the unilateral strategy, narrow the MRM09 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is slightly adjusted, but the general trend is still strong. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow slightly. It is recommended to go long at low prices and go short at high prices for the unilateral strategy, long ICE sugar and short Zhengzhou sugar for the arbitrage strategy, and sell put options for the option strategy [28][31][32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Indonesia's implementation of B50 policy drives the oil market up. The oil market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to hold a high - level shock view for the unilateral strategy and stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price falls, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the callback of CBOT corn 05 contract for the unilateral strategy, narrow the 07 corn - starch spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [36][39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure eases, but the overall price still has pressure. It is recommended to be bearish on the 07 contract for the unilateral strategy, conduct LH79 reverse arbitrage for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell pk605 - P - 7700 options [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The spot price stabilizes, and the number of culled hens increases. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [45][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is good, and the price is strong. It is expected that the 5 - month contract will fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Supported by bullish factors, the price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and buy call options [50][52][53]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Overseas sentiment affects the futures price, and there is no obvious trend. It is recommended to maintain a shock view for the unilateral strategy, hold the long hc05 - 10 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The impact of geopolitical disturbances weakens, and it is necessary to focus on the actual changes in the fundamentals. It is recommended to conduct band trading for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances still exist, and the price is at a high level. It is recommended to conduct high - level hedging for the spot for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [60][62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by demand and cost, the price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The situation between the US and Iran is tense, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of the 10 - day moving average and the impact of sudden war news for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The dovish statement of the Fed supports market confidence, and the price stops falling and fluctuates. It is recommended that investors with high risk tolerance can cautiously go long on platinum for the unilateral strategy, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [72][73][74]. - **Copper**: It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran situation. The price fluctuates weakly at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [76][77]. - **Alumina**: It is necessary to pay attention to the mining policy in Guinea and the situation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The start - up situation of aluminum plants in the Middle - East after being attacked is uncertain. The price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the price fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the macro and capital sentiment. The price may fluctuate strongly in the range. It is recommended to hold long positions and raise the stop - loss line for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [87][88]. - **Lead**: The price fluctuates at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [90][91]. - **Nickel**: The macro uncertainty is high. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [94][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, it follows the nickel price. The price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [98][99]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to take short positions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [101]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a bearish view. It is recommended to take short positions for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply disturbance supports the price at a high level. It is recommended to have a bullish view. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [105]. - **Tin**: The Middle - East war expands, and the price fluctuates strongly in a narrow range. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Iran plans to establish a strait toll system, and the SCFIS index rises. It is recommended that the near - month contract EC2604 fluctuates mainly, and the far - month contract may rise due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy [110][111][112]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict continues. If Iran's toll policy is implemented, it will increase the operating cost of dry bulk ships. It is necessary to pay attention to the shutdown duration of some bauxite mines in Western Australia [114][115]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The Chinese carbon market is in the off - season, and the EU carbon market is about to be reformed. The Chinese carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the EU carbon price is expected to show a shock - strengthening trend [117][118][119]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The WTI crude oil price closes above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [122][123]. - **Asphalt**: The cost rises and the supply shrinks, with strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [124][125][126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the geopolitical conflict, it remains strong. It is recommended to be bullish at a high level for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the low - sulfur production reduction and high - sulfur peak - season demand start rhythm for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [128][129]. - **LPG**: The CP is expected to rise. The price fluctuates strongly at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [130]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the TTF contract for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options for the option strategy [133][134][135]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by raw materials, future PTA devices may change. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [137][138][139]. - **BZ & EB**: The refinery's load reduction affects the pure benzene supply, and the benzene import volume decreases year - on - year. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas shutdowns increase, and the supply tightens. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [143][144][145]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing margin fluctuates within a range. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [146][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory is continuously reduced. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [149][150]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline, and the export expectation increases. The price fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [152][153]. - **Plastic PP**: The import and external purchase are at a loss. It is recommended to take small long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [154][156]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price weakens. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [157][159]. - **PVC**: The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the unilateral, arbitrage, and option strategies [160][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, conduct long glass and short soda ash 09 contract arbitrage, and sell call options [163][164]. - **Glass**: The price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, conduct long glass and short soda ash 09 contract arbitrage, and sell call options [165][166]. - **Methanol**: The price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to have a bullish view on the shock for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [167]. - **Urea**: The price fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage and option strategies [170]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the pulp price. It is recommended to conduct range operations for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell SP2605 - P - 5100 options [175][176][177]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at a high level for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and sell OP2606 - C - 4200 options [178][180][181]. - **Logs**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [182][185]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The commercial housing sales area decreases. It is recommended to hold long positions in the RU05 and NR05 contracts and short positions in the RU 09 contract for the unilateral strategy, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [186][188][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene gross profit reaches a new high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at the recent low of 17520 points for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the support at the recent low of +840 points for the BR2505 - RU2505 spread for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options [192][194].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, due to the recovery of MPOA production and concerns about the slowdown in export growth, there is a risk of the crude palm oil futures stalling and falling around 4,800 ringgit. Domestically, with the strong performance of international crude oil futures, attention should be paid to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can effectively break through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - For soybean oil, the Trump administration's order to increase the proportion of bio - fuels in gasoline and diesel in the US provides short - term upward momentum for CBOT soybean oil. In China, the plan of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel project and the decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory due to lower factory operating rates support the futures market, but the weak procurement and stable basis quotes show a mixed situation [1]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, market rumors of the second batch of Australian seed crushing commercial pilot opening and the increase in the proportion of palm - oil - blended diesel in Indonesia from 40% to 50% in 2026 have boosted the market. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is in a wide - range shock around 9,800 yuan, with the upper pressure at 10,000 yuan. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state [1]. 2.2 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose, reaching a six - month high, supported by the overall optimistic sentiment in CBOT grain futures, crude oil, and the stock market. In the Mississippi Delta, farmers may switch to more profitable soybeans due to low cotton prices and high input costs, and the cotton planting area may reach a ten - year low. The market estimates the planting area to be 9.229 million acres, lower than the previous expectation. In China, the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference limits the upside of domestic cotton. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, slower yarn de - stocking, and some mills reducing their operating rates. The "Silver April" order sustainability is uncertain, but the low downstream inventory provides support for cotton prices [2]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower after reaching a five - month high. A moderate correction is expected after the 18% increase since early March. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has the flexibility to adjust sugar production. Before the geopolitical situation eases, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is supported by futures, expected to remain high and volatile [4]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the consumption off - season, with light trading in the main sales areas. The prices are weakening, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory pressure is evident, and the futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The short - term futures price is expected to remain low and volatile [6]. 2.5 Apples - The apple spot market shows a differentiated trend, with good - quality apples having firm prices and ordinary apples facing de - stocking pressure. The downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The market sentiment has weakened due to capital withdrawal. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main producing areas on the far - month contracts [7][11]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch - The current grain sales progress is slower than last year. With the warming temperature and the decline in futures prices, the enthusiasm of grain - holding entities to sell has increased. The continuous release of policy wheat and the expected auction of directional rice have weakened the bullish sentiment, and the price is under pressure. However, the price decline may be limited due to the strong price - holding attitude of traders. On the demand side, the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still low, and feed enterprises have rigid demand for corn, with an increasing substitution of wheat. In general, the short - term corn price is weak, but the limited remaining grain and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises support the price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the directional rice release [15]. 2.7 Meal - US soybeans find support around 1,160 cents but lack upward momentum. After the bio - diesel policy is implemented, funds take profits. The crude oil price fluctuates due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. In China, the concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity in the soybean meal market have been fully priced in, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading volume has declined recently. Although the overall inventory is still not loose, the speculation sentiment is weak. There is a bearish expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is relatively limited [17]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices show signs of stabilizing. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening in the north has increased significantly, while the south is still observing, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. The 05 contract of the futures market rebounded, but the far - month contracts are worried about the slow weight reduction and the decline in piglet prices. The current capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish piglets is lower than last year. Although the short - term market price may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation of the support for secondary fattening sentiment. The 05 contract may have bottomed out, but the far - month contracts may decline further under capacity pressure [19]. 2.9 Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled by the breeding industry is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply remains stable due to the high inventory of laying hens, the increase in newly - laid hens, and the resumption of laying by molting hens. On the demand side, as the Qingming Festival stocking comes to an end, the demand support weakens, the shipment speed in some production areas slows down, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing. The overall egg market transaction is mediocre, and the egg price is expected to remain low and volatile [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, the price of Y2605 soybean oil futures was 8,714 yuan, up 0.30% from March 27; the price of P2605 palm oil futures was 9,768 yuan, up 1.66%; the price of OI605 rapeseed oil futures was 9,891 yuan, up 0.14% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,980 yuan, down 0.11% from March 27; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,930 yuan, up 0.36%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,304 yuan, down 0.02% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Y2605 soybean oil was - 36 yuan; the basis of P2605 palm oil was - 235 yuan; the basis of OI605 rapeseed oil was 413 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons, the inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2072 million tons, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants was not clearly stated [1]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,385 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,515 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, down 4.00%. The main contract's open interest was 515,084 lots, down 3.03%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,435, up 0.01%, and the valid forecasts were 371, up 9.44% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 0.05%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,489 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0.00 million tons, down 100.0% from the previous value; the industrial inventory was 102.40 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 16.65 million tons, down 19.0%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 million tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning mill C32s immediate processing profit was - 2,225.30 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.10 billion yuan, up 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60, down 82.9%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,441 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,467 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 13.04%. The main contract's open interest was 304,083 lots, down 2.81%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,862, up 3.18%, and the valid forecasts were 0, down 100.00% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the price in Kunming was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 550.00%; the Kunming basis was - 116 yuan/ton, up 16.55%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,364 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%; the sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, up 1100.00%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons [4]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of jujube 2605 (main contract) was 8,775 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous value; the price of jujube 2607 was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the price of jujube 2609 was 9,160 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 42.31%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 385 yuan/ton, down 10.00%. The open interest was 165,841 lots, down 1.70%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,273, unchanged; the valid forecasts were 131, up 43.96%; the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,404, up 0.92% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; the price of first - grade jujubes was 7,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - grade jujubes was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes to the main contract was - 295 yuan/ton, up 20.27%; the basis of first - grade jujubes to the main contract was 325 yuan/ton, up 41.30% [6]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous value; the price of apple 2610 was 8,763 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33%. The open interest was 81,103 lots, down 7.24% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 25 vehicles, up 13.64%; the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 11 vehicles, unchanged; the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 14 vehicles, up 7.69%. The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 5.69% [7]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On March 31, the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous value; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 209.09%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6.67%. The market price at Shekou Port was 2,480 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 9 yuan, down 68.97%. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2,366 yuan/ton, down 1.20%. The import profit was 114 yuan, up 19.70%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 891, down 32.55%. The trading volume was 2,032,676 lots, down 1.04%. The number of warehouse receipts was 58,377, down 1.68% [15]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value; the average price of corn starch was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, up 7.08%. The spot price in Weifang was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the spot price in Changchun was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 33.33%. The 05 spread between starch and corn on the disk was 391 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The Shandong starch profit was 13 yuan, up 85.71%. The open interest was 386,073 lots, up 0.23%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,510, down 3.01% [15]. 3.7 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,240 yuan, unchanged. The price of M2605 futures was 2,937 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 was 303 yuan,

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The overall market is affected by factors such as the Iranian situation, with significant uncertainties and potential for increased volatility [6][9][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line increase in treasury bond futures. Given the current relatively low treasury bond yields, a stable economic recovery in China, rising core inflation, and potential for domestic demand policies, the market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day witnessed mixed performance in stock index futures. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, the economy has resilience, the policy environment is favorable, and there is potential for anti - "involution" and domestic demand expansion policies. Due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw increases in gold and silver futures. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and central banks' gold purchases, the long - term logic for precious metals remains strong. However, due to significant previous price increases and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [11]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are determined by industry supply - demand. Rebar demand is on a decline, but the supply pressure has eased, and inventory pressure is low. Prices may rebound but with limited space. The situation for hot - rolled coil is similar. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The daily output of molten iron may continue to rise, which is positive for prices, but the supply is also increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. Prices may rebound in the short term. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, while demand is rising. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Prices may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [18]. Ferroalloys - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The cost of ferroalloys is rising slightly, and production is at a low level, with weak demand and continued surplus pressure. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is complex, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely during the negotiation period. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for INE crude oil [22][23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. Future supply pressure is expected to ease, but downstream demand growth is expected to slow, and the market trend is unclear. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [26]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The core contradiction lies in the cost - push and supply - demand game. Cost support is still there but weakening, supply pressure has eased slightly, and demand has recovered. The market is expected to be strongly volatile [28][29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and natural rubber substitution demand due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the approaching domestic production season and slow demand recovery. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [31][32]. Chemicals - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The core contradiction is the game between overseas geopolitical conflicts, domestic spring demand, and high inventory. Cost support is strong in the short term, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside is limited by high inventory [33][34][35]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and policy - imposed price ceilings. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downside is limited due to cost support and the approaching demand peak season [36][37]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. PX factories have reduced their loads due to concerns about raw material supply. The short - term PX price may fluctuate widely, and cautious operation is recommended [38][39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. More PTA plants have restarted, and downstream filament factories have increased their production cuts. The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supply from the Persian Gulf may decline, and prices may be more volatile. However, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and cautious attention is needed [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has increased, and terminal demand has declined. The short - term market is mainly driven by cost, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, plant operations, and downstream factory resumption [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and the processing fee has been continuously repaired. Given the changing Middle East situation, cautious participation is recommended [44][45]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. Cost support is expected to be suppressed by the actual fundamentals, and the price adjustment range is limited. The market is expected to be in a stalemate [46][47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures rose. The production line is shrinking, inventory removal is slowing down, and cost support is still there. The market sentiment is expected to fluctuate [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. Supply has decreased slightly, and inventory has not been significantly removed. The export price of high - grade caustic soda has risen strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in procurement prices and factory inventory [49][50]. Pulp - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, paper pulp futures rose. Port inventory has increased rapidly, and domestic supply has also increased slightly. Inventory accumulation and weak demand restrict the rebound height [51][52]. Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures fell. Macro - sentiment fluctuations are the key to short - term price movements. The mine supply is in a tight balance, and the consumption is structurally differentiated. The domestic inventory is in the process of reduction, and the price downside is limited [54][55]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of alumina is tightened, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts. Demand is strong, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise slightly [56][57]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The mining cost provides support, and the demand has recovered slightly, but the real - estate demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and the price rebound space is limited [58][59]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures rose. The supply of recycled lead is tightened, and the demand for batteries has increased, but the overseas inventory is high, and the domestic demand in the off - season is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [60][61][62]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The geopolitical situation affects the market risk sentiment. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support, but attention should be paid to risk control [63]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The Indonesian policy has changed, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, but the stainless - steel demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in surplus. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [64][65]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the US soybean planting area is awaited. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [66][67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. Indonesia plans to promote the B50 biodiesel project, and the export volume has increased. The inventory is in the middle - high level in the past 7 years. Short - term long - entry can be considered [68][69][70]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures rose. The vegetable oil market is supported by the rising crude oil price. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is increasing. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [71][72]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures showed sideways movements, and overseas cotton futures rose. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory is in the process of reduction. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance. The long - term cotton price is expected to rise after a decline [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose and then fell, and overseas sugar futures also showed a similar trend. The overseas sugar price has support due to the Indian production shortfall and the change in Brazilian sugar - making ratio. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, but the long - term price bottom has risen [76][77]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures showed sideways movements. It is now the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking period, and attention should be paid to the weather during the apple - flowering period. The market is expected to be stable and strong [78]. - **Pig**: The previous trading day, pig futures rose. The northern market is expected to adjust slightly, and the southern market is expected to be in a stalemate. The supply pressure is large, and short - position rolling and light - position holding can be considered [79][80]. - **Egg**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply has improved, and the supply structure of large and small eggs is differentiated. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [81]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the wheat substitution effect may strengthen. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is high. For a significant price increase, attention can be paid to the out - of - the - money put options of the forward contract [82][83]. - **Log**: The previous trading day, log futures rose. The New Zealand log supply may shrink, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The market is affected by the geopolitical conflict [84][85][86].

021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 行业 鸡蛋 日期 2026 年 3 月 31 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].