Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with a continued rise in meat prices expected until 2027, driven by supply adjustments and improved market conditions [4][16] - The domestic beef and milk prices have diverged, with the beef-to-milk price ratio reaching a historical high of 20.97, indicating potential for accelerated dairy cow culling and a subsequent recovery in raw milk prices [3][20] - The report highlights that the domestic beef market is expected to tighten due to reduced supply and import pressures, leading to a sustained upward trend in beef prices [11][16] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - The report projects that the beef market will experience a significant recovery starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and reduced losses among farmers [5][16] - The current beef price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of nearly 25% from the peak in 2023, but the report suggests that the market is poised for recovery [5][10] Dairy Market Outlook - The raw milk market has been underperforming, with prices dropping below cash costs, but improvements are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply and demand dynamics shift [17][25] - The report notes that the culling of dairy cows will provide additional beef supply, reinforcing the interconnectedness of the beef and dairy markets [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies directly benefiting from the beef market recovery, such as Bright Meat Industry, and suggests monitoring dairy farming companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu for potential performance recovery [4][26]

文章转自2025年03月18日太平洋农林牧渔团队报告 ，分析师： 程晓东/ 李忠华 投资要点 原奶行业特点： 来需要 24垒场短时间内很难进入其供应链。 ，个目月2前；年以上的时间。其次，消费需求稳增。供给刚性主要由两方面因素决定： 投b.生资产新区建1）域奶周比牛期较场性集的较中投强，资：难额近以度年扩较来张大，。，原奶私奶牛人价喜资格凉本波怕占动热比通，较常生小五产。年性3）左能下右受游一温客个度户周影稳期响定。较a.性周生物资产特点。奶牛这一生物资产生产周期较长，从补栏到原奶产出需要至少 大较期，强性全，主球由要公于受认食两的品方"安黄面全金因特奶素殊源影性响带要："在求首我，先国大，仅型供占乳给国企具土对有面原刚积奶性的质，15%量一要旦。求生2）非产较短常高缺的，资恢新复本建起牧壁 优然牧业为国内奶牛养殖第一龙头，集规模、成本和客户优势为一体。 1）优然牧业是国内最大原奶供应商，产能规模位居全国第一。现拥有96座牧场、管理饲 养近60万头奶牛，原奶产量占全国的9.7%。2）产业链覆盖奶牛育种、饲料、养殖，规模效应显著，奶牛单产达到12.6吨，原奶饲料成本2.17元/公斤。3）手握优 质客户，优势明显 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dairy price has stabilized at the bottom, with an inflection point expected soon, as indicated by the recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showing the raw milk price at 3.07 CNY/kg, which has been fluctuating slightly for about 11 weeks [1] - Modern Dairy's data supports this, with a projected raw milk price of 3.61 CNY/kg in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, but the decline is narrowing, with a forecasted price of approximately 3.56 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, indicating a low single-digit decline [1] - The industry is showing signs of a cyclical bottom, with a continuous reduction in the cattle supply, as evidenced by the monthly decrease of about 40,000 heads, leading to an expected cattle population of 5.8 to 5.9 million by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Modern Dairy has demonstrated significant cost control effectiveness, with the cost of milk per kilogram dropping to 2.53 CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, particularly in feed costs which fell by 16.7% to 1.95 CNY/kg [2] - The company is expected to see further reductions in feed costs, with a projected decrease of about 6.9% to 1.88 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, while other costs remain stable at 0.58 CNY/kg [2] - This comprehensive cost optimization has resulted in an increase in the gross profit margin for raw milk business to 31.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing the management's ability to control costs and maintain operational resilience [2] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a significant Matthew effect, with the top 20 dairy companies increasing their milk production by 14.9% despite a 2.8% decline in national milk production in 2024 [3] - Modern Dairy's market share is increasing, with raw milk sales reaching 2.893 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, and an expansion in the breeding scale to 491,000 heads, up 9% [3] - The company is expected to enter a dual growth cycle of volume and price increase once milk prices begin to rise [3] Group 4 - Revenue forecasts for Modern Dairy are projected at 14.44 billion CNY, 15.28 billion CNY, and 16.06 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 310 million CNY, 750 million CNY, and 1.1 billion CNY respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.04 CNY, 0.10 CNY, and 0.14 CNY, with a target price set at 1.3 HKD based on an increased valuation due to the anticipated industry reversal [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5][14] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are as follows: 2025: 14.44 billion yuan, 2026: 15.28 billion yuan, 2027: 16.06 billion yuan [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 310 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 1.1 billion yuan in 2027 [6][15] - The gross margin for the raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call was held by YouRan Dairy, focusing on the company's annual performance and future outlook for 2024. The call included presentations from the CEO and CFO, followed by a Q&A session [1][20]. Key Points Industry Context - The raw milk industry faced significant challenges in 2024, with a decrease in dairy product consumption and a prolonged oversupply situation. Raw milk prices have been declining for three consecutive years [1][3]. - The overall sales of dairy products in China decreased by 27% in 2024, with production down by 1.9% according to Nielsen data and National Bureau of Statistics [3][12]. - The number of dairy cows in the country decreased by approximately 5% in 2024, leading to a 9% decline in total raw milk production in the last quarter of the year [3][12]. Financial Performance - YouRan Dairy achieved a revenue of nearly 20.1 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The gross profit margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 28.8% [2][13]. - The company reported a net loss of 690 million RMB, a reduction of 34.2% compared to the previous year's loss of 1.05 billion RMB [13][19]. - Cash flow from operations increased significantly, reaching 5.32 billion RMB, up 38.3% from 3.85 billion RMB in 2023 [13][17]. Operational Highlights - The average price of raw milk sold by YouRan was 4.12 RMB per kilogram, a decrease of 5.9% compared to the previous year, which is lower than the industry average price drop of 13.5% [5][16]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 32.7% for its raw milk business, reflecting effective cost control measures [6][15]. - YouRan's solution business revenue reached 5 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.8%, indicating a positive trend in this segment despite overall sales volume pressure [6][17]. Strategic Initiatives - YouRan Dairy is focusing on technological innovation and sustainable practices, having been recognized in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook [2][12]. - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through improved management practices and the promotion of exemplary farm management models [4][6]. - YouRan is also expanding its product offerings in the feed sector, with a focus on developing new feed products and enhancing its brand portfolio [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued industry consolidation and expects to optimize production capacity in response to market pressures [12][23]. - There is an expectation for a recovery in the dairy market in the second half of 2025, driven by consumer confidence and government stimulus policies [23][24]. - YouRan aims to maintain its competitive edge through ongoing technological advancements and strategic management of its resources [12][19]. Additional Insights - The company has implemented a comprehensive quality management system to ensure product quality and compliance with industry standards [10][11]. - YouRan's focus on sustainable development includes the construction of solar-powered farms and the establishment of a carbon credit system [11][12]. - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced pricing strategy for both regular and specialty milk products, adapting to market conditions while ensuring profitability [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting YouRan Dairy's performance, strategic direction, and the broader industry context.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The dairy farming industry is cyclical, with the current round of milk price decline exceeding three years. The average price of fresh milk in major production areas has been in a downward trend since September 2021, dropping nearly 30% from its peak [2][30] - The industry is entering a capacity adjustment phase in 2023, with a more accelerated phase expected in 2025. The national dairy cow inventory is projected to decrease, with a potential balance point around 590 million heads [2][84] - Investment suggestions focus on large leading farms, as they are better positioned to withstand cyclical downturns and benefit from potential upturns [2][84] Summary by Sections Industry Introduction - Dairy cows are primarily Holstein cattle, which are known for their high milk production. The industry has evolved from traditional farming to modern, large-scale operations [8][13] Demand: Phase Adjustment, Market Potential - The demand for raw milk is relatively inelastic, but supply fluctuations are more pronounced. The consumption of dairy products has started to decline since 2022 due to various macroeconomic and demographic factors [20][36] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is still significantly lower than the global average, indicating room for growth [39][42] Supply: Capacity Deconstruction at a Critical Moment - The milk production in China has seen a continuous increase from 2018 to 2023, but is expected to decline in 2024 due to oversupply and reduced demand [44] - The increase in dairy cow inventory from 2019 to 2023 was 1.77 million heads, a growth rate of 37.6%, while the average milk yield per cow increased from 7.4 tons to 9.4 tons [47] Market Structure: Dairy Enterprises Competing for Milk Sources - The concentration of dairy farms is high, with over 76% of farms having more than 100 cows. Major dairy companies have secured a significant portion of the milk supply through acquisitions and partnerships [75][76] - The pricing power of private farms is weak compared to corporate farms, leading to significant price disparities in raw milk purchases [80] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dairy farming industry is approaching a stabilization phase, with potential for investment in large-scale farms that can better manage risks associated with cyclical downturns [84]

Supply and Demand Analysis - The fresh milk market has experienced a supply-demand imbalance due to overcapacity and increased competition, leading to a continuous decline in average prices[2] - As of February 20, 2025, the average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.10 CNY/kg, indicating a low operating status for dairy farming enterprises[3] - The number of dairy cows has been increasing, with stock levels rising from 10.43 million in 2020 to 11.61 million in 2022, contributing to overproduction[6] Financial Performance of Dairy Farms - The overall profitability of dairy farming enterprises has declined since 2023, with major companies like Modern Farming and China Shengmu reporting losses in 2024[12] - For instance, Modern Farming's net profit dropped from 10.19 million CNY in 2021 to -2.28 million CNY in the first half of 2024[13] - The financial data indicates that profit margins are under pressure, with gross profit margins for major companies like Modern Farming decreasing from 10.35% in 2021 to 4.21% in 2024[13] Market Competition and Structural Changes - The market has seen increased consolidation among large dairy companies, with the top five companies now holding over 60% market share, intensifying competition[7] - Smaller dairy enterprises are struggling to compete, leading to market exits or acquisitions by larger firms[7] Impact of Policy Changes - The Central Document No. 1, issued in February 2025, emphasizes the need to support the dairy industry, indicating government commitment to revitalize the sector[15] - Proposed measures include subsidies and support for integrated dairy farming and processing, which may help alleviate the financial pressures faced by dairy farmers[15] Future Outlook - With the implementation of supportive policies, the supply-demand relationship in the fresh milk market is expected to adjust, potentially stabilizing prices in the long term[16] - However, short-term demand for dairy products may remain low due to previous promotional activities reaching their limits[16]