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农业农村部答21:肉牛养殖总体扭亏为盈,将加力落实纾困措施
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-17 10:36
Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, is recovering from previous losses due to a series of supportive policies and market improvements [2][3]. Group 1: Market Situation - The beef cattle industry has turned profitable after a period of losses, with live cattle prices rebounding since the Spring Festival, leading to three consecutive months of profitability [2]. - In the dairy sector, there has been a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in the number of Holstein cows, and the cost of milk production has dropped by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in dairy farming [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing various relief measures, including financial support and monitoring of dairy farms, to stabilize the market and improve production efficiency [3]. - Policies are being guided to enhance the quality of breeding stock and to control production capacity, aiming to stabilize market expectations [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Ministry plans to continue promoting relief measures, focusing on extending the industrial chain, increasing added value, and enhancing competitiveness in both beef and dairy sectors [2][3]. - Upcoming factors such as reduced production due to heat stress in dairy cows and increased consumption of cold drinks are expected to further support the recovery of the dairy market [2].
【广发•早间速递】关税对美国通胀的影响开始体现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 01:13
Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, with energy prices rebounding as a key factor [1] - Core CPI growth remained moderate, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [1] - The US core goods prices rebounded to 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the second consecutive month of recovery [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is evident but remains moderate, suggesting the Federal Reserve needs more time for assessment before making quick decisions [2] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2] - The data has not significantly affected US stock pricing, with market differentiation occurring under industry logic [2] Group 3: Economic Growth and Investment Trends - The actual GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, recovering from 4.6% and 4.7% in the previous two quarters [3] - Nominal GDP growth remains a shortcoming, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in Q2, indicating constraints on microeconomic sentiment [3] - Fixed asset investment growth in June was significantly low, suggesting potential issues with capital formation in the economy [3] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Developments - The dairy industry is experiencing a prolonged loss cycle, with milk prices at a low point for 18 months [4] - Social milk prices have rebounded in Q2 due to the reduction in dairy cow inventory, but profitability remains a challenge for social farms [4] - The upcoming autumn season poses financial pressures on farms due to the need for silage procurement, potentially accelerating industry capacity reduction [4] Group 5: Retail Sector Performance - In June, China's retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with total retail sales amounting to 4.23 trillion yuan [7] - The retail performance varied by category, with food and beverage retail sales showing mixed results [7] - Online retail leaders are reshaping supply chains, improving profitability by closing unprofitable stores [8]
优然牧业20250714
2025-07-15 01:58
Summary of the Conference Call for YouRan Agriculture Company Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest dairy cattle farming enterprise globally, controlled by Yili Group, covering the entire cycle of breeding, farming, and feed raw material production. Over 90% of its raw milk products are sold to Yili [2][5][10]. Industry Insights - Domestic beef prices are expected to reach historical highs within the next two to three years, while milk prices are rebounding after hitting a low. The industry has already reduced about 10% of its capacity, with further reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The domestic beef cattle farming industry has experienced significant losses, with a reduction of nearly 30% in breeding and technical cows. A decrease in domestic beef supply is expected by the second half of 2025, indicating a clear price turning point [4][11]. - Globally, beef cattle production has decreased by about 5%, with beef prices starting to recover since 2024, having risen nearly 40% cumulatively [4][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, YouRan Agriculture's revenue is projected to reach 20.1 billion yuan, but it is expected to incur a net loss of nearly 700 million yuan due to falling raw milk prices and biological asset impairments. Profitability is anticipated to improve starting in 2025 as costs decline and beef prices recover [2][6]. - YouRan's revenue composition includes 75% from goat milk with a gross margin of 30%-40%, and 25% from ancillary businesses like feed, which has a gross margin of 17% [2][7][8]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures have significantly increased since 2020, but no large-scale capacity expansion is planned in the short to medium term. A reduction in capital expenditures is expected starting in 2025 [9]. - The cash cost of producing raw milk is approximately 3.9 yuan per kilogram, with a sales average of 4.1 yuan per kilogram in 2023, indicating a premium of about 30% over industry costs [9]. Future Profitability and Market Dynamics - The company expects to sell approximately 100,000 culled cows annually, with prices currently at historical lows of 7,000 yuan per head, potentially rising to 14,000-15,000 yuan per head by 2026, contributing significantly to profits [15][16]. - The raw milk business is projected to significantly enhance profitability, with expected sales volumes reaching 4.1 million tons by 2025 and 4.3 million tons by 2026. An increase in raw milk prices could add approximately 2 billion yuan to profits by 2027 [17]. Valuation and Market Position - YouRan Agriculture's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is around 1.1, at historical lows, with potential for significant recovery. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is also expected to double as market conditions improve [18]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for YouRan Agriculture is positive, driven by anticipated price recoveries in both beef and raw milk markets, alongside strategic operational adjustments and a strong market position as a leading enterprise in the dairy sector [18].
专家:2023年至今奶牛养殖业损失700亿元
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-13 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The dairy farming industry in China is facing significant challenges, with cumulative income losses projected to reach 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, and losses from fresh milk powder estimated at 20 billion yuan. The current reliance on government support and project subsidies is insufficient to fundamentally resolve these issues, and capacity reduction is deemed the most effective way to achieve supply-demand balance and stabilize milk prices [2][6]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry is experiencing a phase of supply-demand imbalance, with consumer demand showing signs of weakness. In 2024, the national dairy product output is expected to reach 29.618 million tons, indicating relative stability in overall production [2][6]. - The bottom of the current cycle has been identified, with a reversal expected in approximately one year [4][5]. Recommendations for Recovery - Continuous implementation of industry relief policies for 1-2 years is necessary, focusing on leading dairy enterprises to manage capacity reduction effectively. This includes adjusting the breeding structure and increasing the proportion of mature cows to 55%-60% over the next year [6][9]. - Leading dairy companies are encouraged to stabilize basic production capacity through mergers, equity participation, and long-term management of social pastures over the next three years [6][9]. Growth Potential - Economic growth is expected to drive an increase in milk consumption, with an estimated annual consumption increment of 1 million tons, despite a decline in population [8]. - The national dairy cow stock is projected to be controlled at an overall increase of no more than 500,000 heads during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 100,000 heads [8]. Strategic Upgrades - Establishing a strategic regulation mechanism for the dairy farming industry is recommended, drawing on successful management experiences from developed dairy countries [11][12]. - A legal and effective fresh milk pricing mechanism should be developed to reflect supply-demand dynamics, production costs, and consumer conditions [11][12]. - Promoting the integration of dairy farming and feed production, enhancing land support policies, and ensuring each dairy cow has a land allocation of 2 acres are also suggested [11][12].
仍需纾困:2023年至今奶牛养殖业损失700亿元丨消费一线
Core Insights - The dairy farming industry in China is facing significant challenges, with cumulative income losses projected to reach 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, and losses from fresh milk powder estimated at 20 billion yuan [1][4] - Current government support and project subsidies are insufficient to fundamentally resolve the issues, and capacity reduction is deemed the most effective way to achieve supply-demand balance and stabilize milk prices [1][4] Industry Overview - The national dairy product output is expected to reach 29.618 million tons in 2024, indicating relative stability in overall production, but the market is experiencing a phase of supply-demand imbalance due to a weak consumption environment [1] - The bottom of the current cycle has been identified, with a reversal expected in about one year [3] Capacity Reduction Strategies - Continuous implementation of industry relief policies is necessary for 1-2 years, focusing on leading dairy enterprises to drive capacity reduction in milk source bases by 2025-2026 [4][5] - Recommendations include increasing the proportion of breeding cows to 55%-60% and enhancing the standards for reserve cows, alongside using core breeding technologies to prevent significant future capacity declines [4][5] Consumption Growth Potential - Economic growth is expected to drive an increase in milk consumption, with an estimated annual consumption increment of 1 million tons, despite a decline in population [5] - The average annual increase in dairy cow stock is planned to be controlled at 100,000 heads, with a target of breaking through an average milk yield of 11 tons per cow [5] Strategic Recommendations - Establishing a strategic regulatory mechanism for the dairy industry is suggested, drawing on successful management practices from developed dairy nations [7] - A legal and effective pricing mechanism for fresh milk should be developed to reflect supply-demand dynamics and production costs [7] Transition Pathways - The industry is encouraged to transition towards a green and low-carbon model, enhancing cow longevity and management practices, and increasing research and technology promotion [8] - The integration of dairy farming with land use policies is recommended, aiming for a land allocation of 2 acres per cow [7][8]
2025年肉牛大周期或迎拐点,看好国内肉奶景气共振上行
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-22 15:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with a continued rise in meat prices expected until 2027, driven by supply adjustments and improved market conditions [4][16] - The domestic beef and milk prices have diverged, with the beef-to-milk price ratio reaching a historical high of 20.97, indicating potential for accelerated dairy cow culling and a subsequent recovery in raw milk prices [3][20] - The report highlights that the domestic beef market is expected to tighten due to reduced supply and import pressures, leading to a sustained upward trend in beef prices [11][16] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - The report projects that the beef market will experience a significant recovery starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and reduced losses among farmers [5][16] - The current beef price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of nearly 25% from the peak in 2023, but the report suggests that the market is poised for recovery [5][10] Dairy Market Outlook - The raw milk market has been underperforming, with prices dropping below cash costs, but improvements are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply and demand dynamics shift [17][25] - The report notes that the culling of dairy cows will provide additional beef supply, reinforcing the interconnectedness of the beef and dairy markets [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies directly benefiting from the beef market recovery, such as Bright Meat Industry, and suggests monitoring dairy farming companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu for potential performance recovery [4][26]
【转|太平洋农林牧渔-优然牧业深度】原奶周期反转在即,牧业龙头冬去春来
远峰电子· 2025-06-03 11:26
文章转自2025年03月18日太平洋农林牧渔团队报告 ,分析师: 程晓东/ 李忠华 投资要点 原奶行业特点: 来需要 24垒场短时间内很难进入其供应链。 ,个目月2前;年以上的时间。其次,消费需求稳增。供给刚性主要由两方面因素决定: 投b.生资产新区建1)域奶周比牛期较场性集的较中投强,资:难额近以度年扩较来张大,。,原奶私奶牛人价喜资格凉本波怕占动热比通,较常生小五产。年性3)左能下右受游一温客个度户周影稳期响定。较a.性周生物资产特点。奶牛这一生物资产生产周期较长,从补栏到原奶产出需要至少 大较期,强性全,主球由要公于受认食两的品方"安黄面全金因特奶素殊源影性响带要:"在求首我,先国大,仅型供占乳给国企具土对有面原刚积奶性的质,15%量一要旦。求生2)非产较短常高缺的,资恢新复本建起牧壁 优然牧业为国内奶牛养殖第一龙头,集规模、成本和客户优势为一体。 1)优然牧业是国内最大原奶供应商,产能规模位居全国第一。现拥有96座牧场、管理饲 养近60万头奶牛,原奶产量占全国的9.7%。2)产业链覆盖奶牛育种、饲料、养殖,规模效应显著,奶牛单产达到12.6吨,原奶饲料成本2.17元/公斤。3)手握优 质客户,优势明显 ...
现代牧业(01117.HK):奶价拐点将至 量价齐升可期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-22 02:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dairy price has stabilized at the bottom, with an inflection point expected soon, as indicated by the recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showing the raw milk price at 3.07 CNY/kg, which has been fluctuating slightly for about 11 weeks [1] - Modern Dairy's data supports this, with a projected raw milk price of 3.61 CNY/kg in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, but the decline is narrowing, with a forecasted price of approximately 3.56 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, indicating a low single-digit decline [1] - The industry is showing signs of a cyclical bottom, with a continuous reduction in the cattle supply, as evidenced by the monthly decrease of about 40,000 heads, leading to an expected cattle population of 5.8 to 5.9 million by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Modern Dairy has demonstrated significant cost control effectiveness, with the cost of milk per kilogram dropping to 2.53 CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, particularly in feed costs which fell by 16.7% to 1.95 CNY/kg [2] - The company is expected to see further reductions in feed costs, with a projected decrease of about 6.9% to 1.88 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, while other costs remain stable at 0.58 CNY/kg [2] - This comprehensive cost optimization has resulted in an increase in the gross profit margin for raw milk business to 31.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing the management's ability to control costs and maintain operational resilience [2] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a significant Matthew effect, with the top 20 dairy companies increasing their milk production by 14.9% despite a 2.8% decline in national milk production in 2024 [3] - Modern Dairy's market share is increasing, with raw milk sales reaching 2.893 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, and an expansion in the breeding scale to 491,000 heads, up 9% [3] - The company is expected to enter a dual growth cycle of volume and price increase once milk prices begin to rise [3] Group 4 - Revenue forecasts for Modern Dairy are projected at 14.44 billion CNY, 15.28 billion CNY, and 16.06 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 310 million CNY, 750 million CNY, and 1.1 billion CNY respectively [3] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.04 CNY, 0.10 CNY, and 0.14 CNY, with a target price set at 1.3 HKD based on an increased valuation due to the anticipated industry reversal [3]
现代牧业(01117):奶价拐点将至,量价齐升可期
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5][14] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are as follows: 2025: 14.44 billion yuan, 2026: 15.28 billion yuan, 2027: 16.06 billion yuan [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 310 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 1.1 billion yuan in 2027 [6][15] - The gross margin for the raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]
原料奶产量7年来首降,奶价拐点或在下半年出现
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-05-14 08:27
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy farming industry is undergoing a significant transformation after three years of bottom adjustment, with a notable decline in raw milk production expected in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018. The industry is focusing on increasing milk yield per cow and eliminating low-yield cows to enhance profitability and efficiency [1][2]. Industry Adjustment - In 2024, China's raw milk production is projected to be 40.79 million tons, a 2.8% decrease year-on-year, with a clear acceleration in capacity clearance [2] - The number of dairy cows in the top 10 producing provinces has decreased by 6.7% as of the first three quarters of 2024, with an estimated 12 million dairy cows eliminated from the industry [2] - The number of large-scale dairy farms is expected to drop from 4,600 in 2022 to 3,700 by the end of 2024 due to ongoing losses and cash flow issues [2] Financial Performance of Companies - Companies like Junhua Agriculture have faced continuous losses, leading to risk warnings and potential delisting due to negative net assets [3] - Other companies, such as Woyue Mufeng, have exited the New Third Board due to ongoing financial struggles, while Xialing Muyu has not recovered from losses post-restructuring [3] - Knight Dairy, the first dairy company listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, reported its first loss in ten years in 2024, facing criticism for not timely disclosing performance forecast corrections [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average price of raw milk has decreased from 4.4 yuan/kg in August 2021 to 3.1 yuan/kg by December 2024, reflecting a persistent supply-demand imbalance [6][7] - In 2024, the average price of raw milk in major producing provinces was 3.32 yuan/kg, down 13.5% year-on-year [6] - The reliance on imported dairy products has decreased, with imports dropping by 9.5% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline [7] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to see a turning point in the second half of 2024 as milk prices stabilize and cost-reduction measures take effect, with companies reporting improved operating metrics [9] - Modern Dairy's EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 2.986 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase year-on-year, while Yuran Dairy's EBITDA is expected to rise by 38.3% [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a better supply-demand balance in 2025, with potential improvements in milk prices and a reduction in production capacity [10]