Core Viewpoint - Shunxin Agriculture is facing significant financial challenges, with projected net losses for 2025 despite divesting from its real estate segment, primarily due to ongoing pressures in the liquor industry and declining sales [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between -116 million to -188 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 150.18% to 181.33% [1][2]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is approximately 7.5 billion yuan, which is half of the peak revenue of 15.511 billion yuan achieved in 2020 [1][6]. Business Segments - Shunxin Agriculture's main businesses include liquor production and sales, as well as pork-related operations, which have been underperforming [2][3]. - The liquor segment, particularly the "Niulanshan" and "Ningcheng" brands, is experiencing a decline in sales volume, contributing to the overall revenue drop [2][4]. - The pork segment has shown signs of improvement, with a reported revenue of 889 million yuan in the first half of 2025, although it still faces losses [3][6]. Product Performance - Revenue from high-end liquor decreased by 12.32%, mid-range liquor by 21.87%, and low-end liquor by 25.41% in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The gross margins for high, medium, and low-end liquor products have also declined, with respective margins of 69.32%, 42.12%, and 36.91%, down by 2.16, 1.93, and 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Management Changes - The company has undergone several management changes, with the recent appointment of Song Lisheng as chairman, raising questions about his ability to lead the company out of its current financial difficulties due to his lack of direct experience in the liquor and pork industries [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but includes detailed valuation metrics for various indices and sectors, indicating a mixed outlook based on historical percentiles [2][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant valuation metrics for various indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.5x and PB at 1.9x, indicating it is at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles respectively [2][5]. - The report identifies sectors with high PE and PB valuations, such as real estate, automation equipment, and electronics, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][7]. - The report tracks the mid-cycle economic conditions across various industries, noting price fluctuations in the photovoltaic and battery sectors, as well as trends in consumer electronics and financial services [2][3][6]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The CSI All Share PE is 22.5x, with a PB of 1.9x, positioned at the 83rd and 50th historical percentiles [2][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 11.7x, PB is 1.3x, at the 61st and 41st percentiles [2][5]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, PB is 5.7x, at the 41st and 67th percentiles [2][5]. Industry Valuation - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, automation equipment, and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include industrial metals and electronics (semiconductors) [2][7]. - The white goods industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7]. Mid-Cycle Economic Tracking - In the new energy sector, the report notes a 9.2% decline in upstream polysilicon futures prices, while downstream battery prices increased by 3.4% [2][3]. - The semiconductor sector shows a 0.5% increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, indicating positive momentum [3]. - The insurance sector reports a 7.4% year-on-year growth in premium income, although growth has slowed compared to previous months [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report details fluctuations in the steel and cement markets, with rebar prices down by 0.2% and cement prices down by 0.6% [3]. - In the consumer sector, pork prices have decreased by 5.2%, reflecting supply pressures ahead of the Spring Festival [3]. - The report also highlights a 50.9% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations, indicating strong growth in renewable energy [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shunxin Agriculture, is forecasting a significant loss for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to intense competition and declining sales in the liquor industry, which has led to a substantial decrease in overall performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss between 116 million to 188 million yuan, compared to a profit of 231 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is also projected to be a loss between 116 million to 188 million yuan, down from a profit of 246 million yuan year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, characterized by fierce market competition, which has adversely affected the company's white liquor business [1] - The company is responding to market changes by launching new products, such as the "Golden Standard Light Flavor Liquor," and enhancing brand exposure through diversified content marketing [1] Group 3: Other Business Segments - The pork industry is improving its product lineup and optimizing its product structure, resulting in a reduction of losses compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shunxin Agriculture is forecasting a loss in earnings per share for the year 2025, estimating a range between -0.1564 yuan and -0.2534 yuan due to ongoing challenges in the liquor industry and declining sales [1] Industry Summary - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment with intense market competition, significantly impacting Shunxin Agriculture's white liquor business, leading to a decrease in sales year-on-year [1] - The company is responding to market changes by launching new products, such as the "Jinbiao Niu Light Flavor Liquor," and enhancing brand exposure through diversified content marketing [1] Company Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shunxin Agriculture reported a main revenue of 5.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 76.9828 million yuan, down 79.85% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 82.7556 million yuan, a decline of 78.31% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a single-quarter main revenue of 1.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -95.9045 million yuan, down 136.75% year-on-year [1] - The company’s debt ratio stands at 45.62%, with financial expenses of -5844.31 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 33.35% [1]

以本次披露业绩预告均值计算，公司近年市盈率（TTM）图如下所示： 市净率(LF)历史分位(%) 100 - -99-89 ଛି ୨୦ 80-64 80 75o21 72.92 70 60-88 60 5268 50 46.3 40 30 20 14:33 10 0 2020-12-37 1 2021-06-30 2021-12-37 -12-37 2n- 公司 -○- 行业均值 制图数据来自恒生聚源数据库 资料显示，公司从事的主要业务包括：白酒酿造与销售；种猪繁育、生猪养殖、屠宰及肉制品加工。 据公告，公司业绩变动原因为， 报告期内，白酒行业持续深度调整，市场竞争激烈。公司白酒业务面临较大压力，销量同比减少，影响公司整体业绩水 平。在此背景下，公司围绕"产品焕新"开展系列工作，推出"金标牛轻口味白酒"等新品回应市场变化，通过多元化内容营销提升品牌曝光度。 猪肉产业则持续完善产品梯队，优化产品结构，报告期内猪肉产业经营向好，实现同比减亏。 历年净利、扣非同比增长情况(%) 200 - 178.2 % 56.09 0 -48.1 -7५.64 -165.75 -200 -400 -600 -753.08 -800 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shunxin Agriculture, anticipates a net profit loss of 116 million to 188 million yuan for the entire year of 2025 due to ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry and increased market competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's main revenue was 5.869 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 76.9828 million yuan, down 79.85% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 82.7556 million yuan, a decline of 78.31% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, the company's single-quarter main revenue was 1.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72% [1] - The single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was -95.9045 million yuan, a decline of 136.75% year-on-year [1] - The single-quarter net profit excluding non-recurring items was -94.6875 million yuan, down 134.64% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Industry Context and Strategic Response - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, leading to significant pressure on the company's liquor business, resulting in decreased sales [1] - In response to market changes, the company is focusing on "product renewal" and has launched new products such as "Jinbiao Niu Light Flavor Liquor" to enhance brand exposure through diversified content marketing [1] - The pork industry is improving its product lineup and optimizing its product structure, with operations showing a reduction in losses during the reporting period [1]

1月29日，顺鑫农业发布2025年业绩预告称，预计2025年公司由盈转亏。 数据显示，2025年公司预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为亏损1.16亿元~1.88亿元，相比上年同期下滑 150.18%~181.33%，而上年同期盈利2.3亿元；预计扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为亏损1.16亿元~1.88亿元，相比 上年同期下滑147.22%~176.52%。 | 项 目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | 亏损:11,600 万元- 18,800 万元 | 盈利:23,117.11 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:150.18%-181.33% | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | 亏损:11,600 万元 - 18,800万元 | 盈利: 24,567.77 万元 | | | 比上年同期下降:147. 22%-176. 52% | | | 基本每股收益 | 亏损:0.1564元/股-0.2534元/股 | 盈利:0.3116元/股 | （文章来源：每日经济新闻） | (二)业绩换告情况: 澳计净利润为负值 | | --- | 对于 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) expects a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2025, estimated between 116 million to 188 million yuan, compared to a profit of 231 million yuan in the same period last year, marking a year-on-year shift to loss [1] - The performance change is primarily attributed to a deep adjustment in the liquor industry, intensified market competition, and a year-on-year decrease in the company's liquor sales [1] - The pork industry is showing improved operations, achieving a year-on-year reduction in losses [1]

Group 1 - The liquor industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with the major consumption index rising by 1.21% as of 11:24 AM on January 29, 2026, driven by stocks like Hainan Rubber hitting the daily limit and notable increases in Luzhou Laojiao (5.06%) and Gujing Gongjiu (4.06%) [1] - The State Council has initiated measures to boost consumption, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to stimulate consumption and cultivate new growth points in service consumption [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the food and beverage sector is currently at a low point in both fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend [1] - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a low point historically, with market expectations being pessimistic and a favorable chip structure, suggesting a good entry point for investments [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with particular focus on investment opportunities in the dairy, snacks, and catering supply chain segments [1] Group 3 - The CSI Major Consumption Index includes leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with the top ten stocks accounting for 68.63% of the index, including Yili, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI Major Consumption Index, which encompasses essential consumer leaders from various sectors, with liquor being the largest segment at nearly 38% weight [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].