Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued a notification outlining 19 measures to expand service consumption, indicating a shift from strategic positioning to practical implementation [1] - The measures include exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, increasing service consumption time for tourism, and supporting cross-industry IP cooperation and the introduction of foreign sports events [1] - Analysts believe that the combination of clear subsidy directions and financial support will stimulate the IP economy, event economy, and AI+ consumption, while also providing subsidies to residents from the demand side and reducing costs and improving efficiency from the supply side [1] Industry Analysis - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes a range of new consumption leaders, with service-oriented consumption accounting for over 50%, covering sectors such as cultural tourism, dining, sports goods, medical beauty, and freshly brewed tea [1] - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the index is 22 times, positioned at the 24.5% percentile since its launch in 2020, indicating emerging investment value [1] - The E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (513070) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% per year among stock ETFs and supports T+0 trading, providing investors with opportunities to capitalize on service consumption investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hu Shang A Yi (02589) surged over 26%, reflecting strong market interest and growth potential in the ready-to-drink tea market, particularly in lower-tier cities in China [1] Company Performance - As of the latest report, Hu Shang A Yi's revenue from franchise sales, franchise services, and self-operated stores for the first half of 2025 showed year-on-year changes of +10%, +3%, and -10%, respectively, totaling 1.471 billion, 283 million, and 24 million yuan [1] - The company has a total of 9,436 stores as of June 30, 2025, with a net increase of 999 stores since the beginning of the year, representing a 12% year-on-year growth [1] - The proportion of stores located in third-tier and below cities increased by 1 percentage point to 51.12% [1] Industry Insights - According to a report by Zhi Shi Consulting, the ready-to-drink tea market in China's third-tier and below cities is expected to be the largest and fastest-growing segment from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant future growth potential [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities, leveraging its advantages in store coverage and supply chain network [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hu Shang A Yi (02589) surged over 26%, reflecting strong market interest driven by growth potential in the ready-to-drink tea market in lower-tier cities in China [1] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the latest report, Hu Shang A Yi's stock rose by 25.98% to HKD 166.3, with a trading volume of HKD 80.57 million [1] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from franchise sales, which rose by 10% to CNY 1.471 billion, driven by network expansion and GMV growth [1] - The total number of stores reached 9,436, with a net increase of 999 stores since the beginning of the year, marking a 12% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Market Insights - According to a report by Zhi Shi Consulting, the ready-to-drink tea market in China's third-tier and below cities is expected to be the largest and fastest-growing segment from 2023 to 2028 [1] - The company emphasizes its focus on lower-tier cities, where it holds advantages in store coverage and supply chain networks [1] - As of June 30, 2025, stores in third-tier and below cities accounted for 51.1% of the total, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [9]. Core Insights - The company benefits from a high-growth industry, achieving steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 1.818 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company has successfully expanded its store network, with a total of 9,436 stores as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 999 stores from the beginning of the year, and a 12% increase year-on-year [8]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from industry growth, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 4.76, 5.63, and 6.48 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.43%, while the net profit margin rose by 1 percentage point to 11.16% [7]. - The company reported a decrease in sales expense ratio by 2 percentage points to 10.33% due to reduced employee compensation [7]. Business Expansion - The company has seen significant growth in franchise sales, with revenue from franchise sales increasing by 10% to 1.471 billion yuan, driven by network expansion and GMV growth [8]. - New product launches have been successful, with the "Dark Night Rose" series selling over 2.1 million cups in its first week and the "Daily Fiber+" fruit and vegetable tea selling over 3 million cups in its first week [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected revenues of 3.925 billion yuan in 2025, 4.623 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.288 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.51%, 17.77%, and 14.39% respectively [12]. - The net profit is forecasted to reach 500.84 million yuan in 2025, 592.07 million yuan in 2026, and 681.70 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.26%, 18.22%, and 15.14% respectively [12].

Core Insights - The tea beverage industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by increased consumer health awareness and diverse taste preferences [1] - Digital technology is facilitating the emergence of new industries, business formats, and models within the tea sector [1] Group 1: Strategic Upgrades - Companies are leveraging data to enhance strategic upgrades, with Nayuki Tea launching the "No Sugar Natural Nutrition+" plan in collaboration with nutritionists, focusing on healthy product formulas [1] - This initiative marks a critical extension of Nayuki's product strategy in the health beverage sector [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Nayuki's health product strategy positively impacted operational efficiency, with average daily sales per store increasing by 4.1% year-on-year, and average daily order volume rising from 265.9 to 296.3, a growth of 11.4% [1] - In first-tier cities, the average daily sales per store saw a notable increase of over 9%, indicating strong acceptance of health-oriented products across various market tiers [1] Group 3: Market Expansion - Nayuki is expanding its consumption scenarios through "Nayuki Green" and other light food store formats, covering traditional tea times to breakfast, lunch, and afternoon tea, enhancing user engagement [2] - The competitive landscape in the ready-to-drink tea industry is intensifying, with digitalization and health becoming focal points for leading brands [2] - Nayuki plans to continue utilizing its membership system and consumer data to refine store models, expand consumption scenarios, and focus on health product lines, while developing more precise membership operation strategies to adapt to market changes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent subsidy wars among food delivery platforms have significantly impacted the ready-to-drink tea and coffee market, leading to unsustainable growth driven by external incentives rather than organic demand [1][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition among major food delivery platforms like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD has intensified, resulting in substantial subsidies that have disrupted the pricing structure of the ready-to-drink tea and coffee market [2][3]. - In the first half of 2025, major brands such as Luckin Coffee, Gu Ming, and Mi Xue Ice City reported a combined revenue of 55 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5 billion yuan year-on-year, largely attributed to these subsidies [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Luckin Coffee reported a net income of 21.22 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 44.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, up from 788 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - Gu Ming achieved a revenue of 5.663 billion yuan in the same period, marking a 41.2% year-on-year growth, while Mi Xue Ice City expanded its store count significantly, contributing to its revenue growth [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainability Concerns - Analysts express concerns regarding the sustainability of the growth driven by delivery subsidies, suggesting that the impressive financial results may not be replicable in the absence of such incentives [5][8]. - The reliance on delivery platforms has led to a decline in dine-in orders, which are more profitable for stores, raising questions about the long-term viability of the current business model [9]. Group 4: Future Strategies - The market regulator has indicated a shift towards more sustainable practices, urging platforms to control subsidies and enhance service quality, which may lead to a decline in sales growth for tea and coffee brands [7][10]. - Companies are now focusing on improving in-store efficiency, increasing customer retention, and exploring international markets as part of their long-term strategies [9][10].

证券分析师 证券研究报告 | 商贸零售 | | --- | 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 07 日 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 体育产业支持政策落地；国内折叠自行车龙头新股上市 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.9.1-2025.9.5） 投资要点： 1）品牌力：根据灼识咨询的数据，按 2024 年零售量计，公司在中国内地折叠自行 车行业排名第一，市场份额达 26.3%，按 2024 年零售额计，公司亦位居中国内地折 叠自行车行业首位，市场份额为 36.5%。 2）渠道力：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，公司与遍布中国 30 个省级行政区的 38 家经 销商合作，覆盖 680 个零售点。分渠道看，国内经销收入为公司收入的主要构成， 2024 年公司国内经销收入 3.07 亿元，占公司总收入的 68%；国内直销收入占 2024 年公司收入的 25%。于往绩记录期间，大行的产品销往中国内地以外的 28 个国家和 地区，包括日本、泰国、美国及欧盟。 3）产品力：大行自行车主要包括 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [1][2] - The company's store network continues to expand, with a total of 53,014 stores as of mid-2025, representing a net increase of 6,535 stores compared to the end of 2024 [3][4] - The company is focusing on both domestic and overseas markets, with strategies tailored to different regions, including aggressive expansion in the domestic market and optimization of existing stores in Southeast Asia [3][4] Revenue Growth - The revenue growth in 25H1 was driven by the expansion of the store network and an increase in average store sales, with the average single-store contribution to sales reaching 278,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - The revenue structure remains stable, with product sales, equipment sales, and franchise-related services contributing 13.84 billion, 650 million, and 380 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.5%, 42.3%, and 29.8% [2] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating store openings, particularly in lower-tier cities, while also expanding the "Lucky Coffee" brand, which has seen a significant increase in store numbers [3][4] - The operational strategy for the domestic market focuses on steady expansion and improving store operational quality, while the overseas strategy emphasizes deepening market presence in Southeast Asia [4] Profitability - The gross margin for 25H1 was 31.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3% [5] - The company maintains a stable cost structure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining relatively unchanged [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 32.81 billion, 37.40 billion, and 42.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.1%, 14.0%, and 14.5% respectively [11] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to be 5.81 billion, 6.67 billion, and 7.69 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30.9%, 14.8%, and 15.3% [11]

Core Insights - The current state of the ready-to-drink tea industry shows significant revenue growth among major players, with Mixue Group leading the market with a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [3][6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying due to aggressive subsidy wars initiated by delivery platforms, impacting various brands differently [7][9] - The overall performance of the industry is mixed, with some brands like Nayuki experiencing a decline in revenue, while others like Mixue and Gu Ming continue to grow [4][6] Revenue and Growth - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, up 39.3%, with a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 44.1% increase [6] - Gu Ming achieved a revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, up 119.8% [6] - Bawang Tea Ji generated 6.725 billion yuan in revenue, a 21.61% increase, with a net profit of 1.307 billion yuan, up 6.8% [6] Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a surge in store openings, with the top five brands adding nearly 9,000 new stores in the first half of the year [3] - Nayuki is the only major brand to report a revenue decline, with a revenue of 2.178 billion yuan, down 14.4% [4][6] - The competitive environment is characterized by a price war, with some brands opting out of aggressive discounting strategies [7][10] Strategic Responses - Brands are diversifying their offerings, with many entering the ready-to-drink coffee market as a new growth avenue [16][18] - Mixue's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, aims to expand to over 10,000 stores, with significant investments in the coffee supply chain [16] - Gu Ming has equipped over 8,000 stores with coffee machines to enhance its coffee product offerings [17] International Expansion - The overseas expansion of brands is accelerating, with Bawang Tea Ji opening 39 new stores abroad in the second quarter [19] - The Southeast Asian market is becoming crowded, prompting brands like Mixue to optimize existing stores [20] - North America is emerging as a new battleground for Chinese tea brands, with Bawang Tea Ji and others making significant inroads [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in 1H25 aligns with expectations, showing stable revenue growth and improved profitability metrics [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 reached 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, up 37.5% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 340 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% [1]. - Gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 32.6% due to optimized raw material structure and enhanced supply chain efficiency [2]. - Net profit margin increased by 3.1 percentage points to 13.0%, although adjusted net profit margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 13.6% [2]. Development Trends - The company experienced strong same-store performance, with a significant increase in average daily GMV per store in 2Q, up approximately 15% from 1Q [1]. - The number of stores increased by 59 to 8,444, with a 9% year-on-year growth in stores located in lower-tier cities [1]. - The product development strategy shifted from supply chain-driven to demand-driven, launching 55 new products focused on core categories like fresh fruit tea and fresh milk tea [1]. Marketing and Cost Management - Sales expense ratio rose by 1.6 percentage points to 6.0% due to increased marketing investments aimed at specific demographics and channels [2]. - Management expense ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 10.3%, primarily due to higher employee compensation and consulting fees [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in the second half of the year, with significant product development results and steady overseas expansion [2]. - Despite potential short-term disruptions from reduced delivery subsidies, the company expects to cultivate a broader consumer base and enhance user loyalty in the long term [3]. - The company aims to maintain a healthy growth trajectory in same-store sales, with expectations for a notable increase in net new store openings in the second half of the year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026, currently trading at 14 and 11 times P/E for those years [3]. - The target price is set at 12 HKD, corresponding to 19 and 15 times P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 36% [3].