1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

能源化工日报 2025-12-31 2025/12/31 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 0.50 元/桶，涨幅 0.11%，报 436.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 0.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.00%，报 2473.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 7.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.23%，报 2977.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 0.41 百万桶至 424.82 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；SPR 补库 0.80 百万桶至 412.97 百万桶，环比补库 0.19%；汽油库存累库 2.86 百万桶 至 228.49 百万桶，环比累库 1.27%；柴油库存累库 0.20 百万桶至 118.70 百万桶，环比累库 0.17%；燃料油库存累库 0.85 百万桶至 22.99 百万桶，环比累库 3.85%；航空煤油库存累库 1.32 百万桶至 44.89 百万桶，环比累库 3.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

能源化工日报 2025-12-30 2025/12/30 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 8.60 元/桶，跌幅 1.94%，报 434.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 44.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.76%，报 2459.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 49.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.62%，报 2974.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.94 百万桶至 10.16 百万桶，环比累库 10.14%； 柴油库存环比去库 0.27 百万桶至 14.70 百万桶，环比去库 1.79%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.01 百万桶至 7.21 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%；石脑油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 4.98 百万桶，环比 去库 1.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.05 百万桶至 8.84 百万桶，环比累库 0.54%；总体成品油环 比累库 0.67 百万桶至 45.89 百万桶，环比累库 1.49%。 刘洁文 ...

进入12月，伊朗甲醇装置集中限气检修，在港口库存出现拐点后，甲醇价格开始触底反弹。 从供给格局来看，非一体化投产基本达峰，产能增量主要由一体化装置贡献。 2025年，国内甲醇产能增加705万吨，产能增速为6.51%。其中，一体化产能增加660万吨／年，非一体 化产能增加10万吨／年，绿色甲醇产能增加35万吨／年。考虑到一体化产能配套有下游加工装置，而绿 色甲醇对传统甲醇的替代作用不大，因此实际可流通的甲醇增量寥寥无几，仅在10万吨／年。2026年， 虽然国内甲醇产能继续增加370万吨，但产能增速放缓至3.38%。与2025年类似，增量主要由一体化装 置贡献，实际可以外放流通的甲醇增量仅有20万吨，国内甲醇的非一体化投产基本达峰。 同时，"反内卷"背景下，存量装置产出受限，增量项目审批趋严。 从投产年限上看，20年以上的甲醇产能约为880万吨／年，占国内甲醇总产能的8%左右，但2005年之前 的很多装置已经被淘汰或者进行了节能减排技术改造。如果剔除这部分淘汰产能和正在技术改造及计划 关停的装置产能，预计20年以上的甲醇产能仅剩下180万吨／年左右，约占国内甲醇总产能的1.6%。因 此，落后产能的有序退出对甲醇的 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

能源化工日报 2025-12-29 原油 2025/12/29 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.20 元/桶，跌幅 0.27%，报 441.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 5.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.17%，报 3017.00 元/吨。 新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 0.06 百万桶至 15.06 百万桶，环比累库 0.43%； 柴油库存累库 0.07 百万桶至 8.43 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库存去库 1.40 百万桶至 24.66 百万桶，环比去库 5.39%；总成品油去库 1.27 百万桶至 48.15 百万桶，环比去库 2.57%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term methanol market fundamentals are weak. After the previous port unloading issue was resolved, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has resurfaced. Inland, after the restart of Jiutai and the increase in freight rates, the inland demand is met by the port, leading to inventory accumulation and price cuts. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics decreases, and factories want to reduce inventory through price cuts. Attention should be paid to the turning points in the inland market, such as concentrated bearish sentiment or the start of inventory reduction. The port is concerned about MTO profits due to poor downstream performance, but MTO's own profits are still acceptable, and Fude may return before the festival. The main negative factor is the upcoming port inventory accumulation, which may last until mid - January, reaching a level of 160. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract when the price is between 2050 - 2100 [3]. - The near - term trading logic is the enhanced willingness to hold goods due to the shutdown of Iranian plants. The long - term trading expectation is that the key point for methanol is how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract will be stronger than the 2601 contract, with the 1 - 5 spread in a reverse arbitrage situation, and the process is affected by macro sentiment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term market fundamentals are weak. Port inventory accumulation is expected, and inland inventory is also increasing with price cuts. Attention should be paid to inland turning points and port MTO profit concerns. The main negative is port inventory accumulation, but there are still positive factors in the future, such as Fude's restart, a sharp decrease in Iranian imports, and a reduction in non - Iranian imports, which may lead to port inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at 2050 - 2100 [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 01 base spread remained stable [12]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread was in a positive arbitrage situation [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term operating range of methanol 2601 is 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the position of selling put options on methanol 2601 and sell call options at the same time [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the inland area are presented, including the inventory of the northwest region, southern and northern lines, and the national factory - level inventory, as well as the weekly pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][25][28]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the port area are presented, including the weekly inventory of Chinese ports, the inventory of different provinces, and the inventory of various warehouses in Jiangsu. In addition, data on the shipping volume and arrival volume of methanol are also provided [36][44][50]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including using futures, put options, and call options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [61]. - **Positive Information**: The 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the goods will be available after the post - festival device approval is completed [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [63]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The fundamental support is average. Although the production area factories have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they still intend to maintain low inventory and mainly reduce prices to sell goods in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling. The market in the sales area is also declining [65]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, after the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will shrink in the future, and the upward momentum of methanol in the northwest region will be limited. In the sales area, the logic of demand growth is clear. Yangmei Hydrocarbon plans to restart at the beginning of December, and Lianhong's new olefin project is expected to start in early December. After the arbitrage space between the port and Henan to northern Shandong is closed, the local supply in the sales area will be limited, and the supply - demand tight situation will be more prominent. The price support in the southern sales area is strong and is expected to continue to be stronger than that in the northern production area [66]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuated, mainly because of the increase in Iranian shipments [68]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Price Tracking - The prices of upstream coal (such as Ordos pit - mouth coal price and Qinhuangdao port coal price) and downstream methanol (such as methanol in Lunan and Taicang markets) are tracked. In addition, data on the number of warehouse receipts and methanol valuation are also provided [71][72][81]. 3.4.2 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei) are tracked, as well as the profits of downstream products such as MTO [83][104]. 3.4.3 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Production and Output Tracking - The weekly operating rates and production of methanol from different raw materials and different regions are tracked, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO, traditional downstream products, and some chemical products [91][100][108]. 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes of methanol from different countries (such as Malaysia and Venezuela) and the shipping volume of Iranian methanol are tracked. In addition, data on the external structure of methanol, import profits, and price differences are also provided [128]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - The weekly capacity utilization rate, output, and operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants overseas are tracked [131][132]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet for methanol from January 2025 to May 2026 is presented, including the supply (imports, olefin production, etc.), demand (olefin consumption, acetic acid consumption, etc.), and inventory changes in the port area [135].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四 WTI 与布伦特原油期货因圣诞节假期休市，SC2602 以 444.7 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.7 元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。俄罗斯今年的石油和 凝析油产量与 2024 年大致持平，约为 5.16 亿吨，即约 1032 万桶 | | | | /日。诺瓦克称，俄罗斯将继续以 OPEC+形式开展工作。全球石 | | | | 油市场保持平衡，OPEC+机制在双向调节产量方面成效显著。荷 | | | 原油 | 兰银行 ING 认为，2026 年石油盈余将对油价产生影响。在 OPEC+ | 震荡 | | | 决定以快于预期的速度逐步取消供应削减措施后，石油市场的盈 | | | | 余量在 2026 年内势必会有所增加。尽管今年价格表现疲软，但非 | | | | OPEC 国家的供应预计也将以稳健的速度增长。根据该银行的平 | | | | 衡表，预计到 2026 年将出现超过每日 200 万桶的过剩。进入假 | | | | 期，油价预计延续震 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].