12月27日，国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—11月份工业企业利润数据。1—11月份， 规模以上装备制造业利润同比增长7.7%，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点，是对规模 以上工业企业利润增长拉动作用最强的板块。从行业看，装备制造业的8个大类行业中有7个行业利润实 现同比增长，其中，铁路船舶航空航天、电子行业利润两位数增长，增速分别达27.8%、15.0%；汽车 行业利润增长7.5%，较1—10月份加快3.1个百分点；通用设备、专用设备、电气机械行业利润继续增 长，增速分别为4.8%、4.6%、4.2%。 ...

多家A股公司被证监会立案调查。 臻镭科技（688270） 公告称，公司于2025年12月26日收到中国证监会下发的《立案告知 书》，因公司涉嫌信息披露违法违规，根据相关法律法规，中国证监会决定对公司予以立 案。目前公司各项经营管理、业务及财务状况均正常。 ST长园（600525） 公告称，公司于2025年12月26日收到中国证监会下发的《立案告知 书》。因公司涉嫌信息披露违法违规，根据相关法律法规，中国证监会决定对公司立案。ST 长园表示，目前公司各项生产经营活动正常开展。立案调查期间，公司将积极配合中国证监 会的调查工作，并严格按照相关法律法规及监管要求及时履行信息披露义务。 公开资料显示，ST长园核心业务包括智能电网设备与能源互联网技术服务、消费类电子及其 他领域智能设备、磷酸铁锂材料。今年前三季度，公司实现营业收入54.38亿元，同比减少 1.34%；实现归母净利润-3.28亿元。 就在两天前，臻镭科技发布了《关于前期会计差错更正的公告》，公告显示，公司全资子公 司杭州城芯科技有限公司2022年营业收入中存在842.65万元收入（占2022年度营业收入 3.47%）确认依据不足，导致2022年半年度报告 ...

黄海之滨，胶州湾畔，资本市场的浪潮与实业发展的脉搏同频共振。 青岛，作为沿海重要中心城市和计划单列市，既是山东经济发展的"龙头"，也是北方资本市场活跃的高地。"十四五"时期，青岛资本市场在 风浪中强身健体，在改革中破浪前行，交出了一份沉甸甸的成绩单：上市公司数量稳居北方城市第三位，直接融资规模创下新高，期货与衍 生品市场特色鲜明。资本市场"青岛板块"正以前所未有的韧性与活力，为区域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 展望"十五五"，青岛资本市场将继续深耕蓝海，强化枢纽功能，努力打造公司治理规范、竞争优势突出、服务实体经济质效显著的资本市 场"青岛样板"。 资本市场基本盘稳固 上市公司是资本市场的基石，也是区域经济发展的缩影。"十四五"以来，青岛把推动企业上市作为经济转型升级的重要抓手，多层次资本市 场体系日益完善，企业上市梯队呈现出量质齐升的良好态势。 数据显示，五年间，青岛境内外上市公司数量增加33家，现有86家，较"十三五"末增长46%。其中，境内上市公司数量增加23家，现有65 家，较"十三五"末增长48%，在北方城市中仅次于北京和天津，位列第3位。这一数字的背后，是青岛资本市场生态的持续优化。目前，青 岛有 ...

黄海之滨，胶州湾畔，资本市场的浪潮与实业发展的脉搏同频共振。 不仅是金字塔尖的上市公司，作为"塔基"的基础层建设同样厚积薄发。"十四五"时期，青岛新三板创新 层挂牌公司达到28家，比"十三五"末增长了133%。区域性股权市场积极探索创新发展，获批全国唯一 非上市公司财务顾问业务试点，全国首批设立"专精特新"专板，全国首批落地三四板对接"绿色通道"机 制，并已有6家企业通过该通道挂牌新三板，目前服务企业数量超3500家，资本市场的普惠性与包容性 显著增强。 制造业挺起高质量脊梁 在严峻复杂的内外部环境下，青岛资本市场不仅仅是融资的场所，更在稳住地方经济"基本盘"中发挥了 重要作用。 五年间，青岛境内上市公司总市值稳步增长，证券化率由52%增至65%，提升13个百分点。2024年度， 青岛境内上市公司实现营业收入6491亿元、净利润450亿元，较2020年度分别增长50%和54%。 进入2025年，这种增长势头依然强劲。前三季度，青岛辖区上市公司营收突破5000亿元，同比增长 6.07%，高于全国1.36%的整体水平；净利润合计454亿元，同比增长9.28%，高于全国5.5%的水平，增 长率在5个计划单列市中仅次 ...

黄海之滨，胶州湾畔，资本市场的浪潮与实业发展的脉搏同频共振。 青岛，作为沿海重要中心城市和计划单列市，既是山东经济发展的"龙头"，也是北方资本市场活跃的高 地。"十四五"时期，青岛资本市场在风浪中强身健体，在改革中破浪前行，交出了一份沉甸甸的成绩 单：上市公司数量稳居北方城市第三位，直接融资规模创下新高，期货与衍生品市场特色鲜明。资本市 场"青岛板块"正以前所未有的韧性与活力，为区域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 展望"十五五"，青岛资本市场将继续深耕蓝海，强化枢纽功能，努力打造公司治理规范、竞争优势突 出、服务实体经济质效显著的资本市场"青岛样板"。 资本市场基本盘稳固 上市公司是资本市场的基石，也是区域经济发展的缩影。"十四五"以来，青岛把推动企业上市作为经济 转型升级的重要抓手，多层次资本市场体系日益完善，企业上市梯队呈现出量质齐升的良好态势。 数据显示，五年间，青岛境内外上市公司数量增加33家，现有86家，较"十三五"末增长46%。其中，境 内上市公司数量增加23家，现有65家，较"十三五"末增长48%，在北方城市中仅次于北京和天津，位列 第3位。这一数字的背后，是青岛资本市场生态的持续优化。目前，青岛 ...

作者简介： 赵 伟， 经济学博士，申万宏源证券首席经济学家，上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司副总经 理，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 侯倩楠 （通信作者），管理学博士，申万宏源研究所宏观分析师 屠 强， 申万宏源研究所资深高级宏观分析师 摘要 ： 本文立足纵深推进全国统一大市场背景，系统探讨眼下"内卷"现象的成因、影响与 政策应对。研究指出，本轮"内卷"核心表现为PPI长期负增长及中下游产能利用率偏低，挤压企 业盈利、阻碍产业升级。深层根源是经济转型期新旧动能分化，叠加地方政府为追求GDP和财 政收入的同质化无序竞争。破解困境的对策包括：供给侧通过产量调控、淘汰落后产能优化产业 结构，提升产品质量以修复价格、增强竞争力；需求侧大力发展居民服务消费，借财政补贴与社 保完善释放消费潜力，同时引导就业从制造业向服务业转移，实现供需结构适配。本文贡献在 于，系统论证"反内卷"政策与经济高质量发展的内在联系，为相关部门优化产业结构、激发市 场活力提供理论依据与实践方向。 本文来源《新金融》2025年第12期 全 文 内 容 综合整治"内卷式"竞争： 背景、成因、影响及应对 与以往的供给侧 ...

作者简介： 赵 伟， 经济学博士，申万宏源证券首席经济学家，上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司副总经 理，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 侯倩楠 （通信作者），管理学博士，申万宏源研究所宏观分析师 屠 强， 申万宏源研究所资深高级宏观分析师 摘要 ： 本文立足纵深推进全国统一大市场背景，系统探讨眼下"内卷"现象的成因、影响与 政策应对。研究指出，本轮"内卷"核心表现为PPI长期负增长及中下游产能利用率偏低，挤压企 业盈利、阻碍产业升级。深层根源是经济转型期新旧动能分化，叠加地方政府为追求GDP和财 政收入的同质化无序竞争。破解困境的对策包括：供给侧通过产量调控、淘汰落后产能优化产业 结构，提升产品质量以修复价格、增强竞争力；需求侧大力发展居民服务消费，借财政补贴与社 保完善释放消费潜力，同时引导就业从制造业向服务业转移，实现供需结构适配。本文贡献在 于，系统论证"反内卷"政策与经济高质量发展的内在联系，为相关部门优化产业结构、激发市 场活力提供理论依据与实践方向。 本文来源《新金融》2025年第12期 全文内容 综合整治"内卷式"竞争： 背景、成因、影响及应对 一 引言 近年来，" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance economic quality and stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the chaotic competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [5][6]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Recommendations - To address the "involution," policies should focus on both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion, which benefits both the present and the long term [6][11]. - Supply-side measures include production adjustment, elimination of backward production capacity, and improving product quality to restore prices and enhance competitiveness [6][11]. - Demand-side strategies should promote resident service consumption through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements to unleash consumption potential, while guiding employment from manufacturing to services [6][11]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have consistently addressed the need to combat "involutionary" competition, with significant policy decisions made to regulate local government and corporate behaviors [7][8]. - The 2025 government work report outlined specific actions to establish a unified national market and comprehensively address "involutionary" competition [8][11]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on both local governments and enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [14][16]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries, particularly in the mid- and downstream sectors, experiencing negative profit growth [16][19]. - The "involution" is more pronounced in mid- and downstream industries, where the competition has intensified, leading to a decline in profitability and increased cost pressures [19][21]. Group 5: Structural Issues and Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to break the cycle of "price-income-consumption" contraction, advocating for a shift from an investment-driven to an innovation-driven economy [20][42]. - The service sector is identified as a key area for absorbing employment and addressing structural unemployment, with significant potential for growth in service consumption [42][43]. - Policies should focus on enhancing service sector development, improving social security systems, and optimizing service industry regulations to stimulate demand and support economic transformation [37][42].

Economic Overview - Guangdong's economy has shown overall stability in 2023, with the industrial added value of above-scale enterprises growing by 3.2% year-on-year from January to November, and manufacturing increasing by 3.4% [1][2] - The automotive manufacturing sector has experienced a significant growth of 9.9%, with an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth is supported by key sectors, with the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing growing by 7.1%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 5.2% [2] - High-tech product output has maintained double-digit growth, with civilian drones, industrial robots, servers, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 41.2%, 32.8%, 36.9%, and 44.1% respectively [2] Service Sector Performance - The revenue of above-scale service industries increased by 6.9% year-on-year from January to October, with strong support from information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 9.4% [3] - The transportation market has remained stable, with freight volume holding steady at 34.73 million tons year-on-year, and cargo turnover increasing by 9.0% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 15.7% year-on-year from January to November, while investment in equipment and tools has grown by 0.8%, accounting for 16.1% of total investment [4] - Investment in modern service industries has seen rapid growth, with internet and related services investment increasing by 86.6% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year from January to November, with urban consumption growing by 2.7% and rural consumption by 0.6% [5][6] - Sales of certain upgraded products have seen rapid growth, with retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment increasing by 13.8% and 19.7% respectively [6]

Group 1: Profitability Insights - The ROE of the entire A-share market (excluding finance and oil) increased from 6.32% in mid-2025 to 6.37% by Q3 2025, primarily driven by improved sales net profit margins due to effective cost control[3] - Sales net profit margin rose from 4.65% to 4.69%, indicating effective cost management despite a decline in gross profit margin from 17.73% to 17.48%[13] - Asset turnover improved slightly from 56.21% to 56.37%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency[28] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Among 17 industries, 10 are experiencing low capacity utilization and low capital expenditure/depreciation, indicating a poor current supply-demand balance but potential for future improvement[4] - Over two-thirds of industries have capacity utilization below historical medians, highlighting persistent demand weakness in the economy[41] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Trends - In the past year, 24 out of 33 industries exhibited a trend of rising valuations and declining dividends, suggesting a marginal increase in market risk appetite[5] - The report identifies industries with high valuations and low dividends as needing caution, while those with low valuations and high dividends are seen as having better risk-reward profiles[53] Group 4: Dynamic Transmission of Profitability - Historical data shows that improvements in ROE and asset turnover typically lead capital expenditure by six months to a year, indicating a lag in investment response to profitability improvements[6] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream construction materials show a one-year lead of ROE over capital expenditure, while downstream goods show a six-month lead[64]