Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic developments, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][64][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data Asset Classes - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [2] - Major stock indices in developed markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.5% [3] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.6% to 56.5 USD per barrel, while COMEX gold increased by 1.2% to 4,354.0 USD per ounce [2][45] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing expectations [74] - The CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, significantly lower than expected, with core CPI at 2.6% [76] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank maintained its rates [2][64] Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices saw increases, with WTI crude oil down 1.6% and COMEX silver up 9.4% [45][52] - The prices of various metals, including LME copper and aluminum, also increased [52]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic events, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][70][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus package amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately $118 billion), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [3] - Developed market indices showed mixed performance, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising by 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index fell by 2.6% and 1.1% [3] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices increased by 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.16% [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 4.6% [74] - The labor force participation rate was reported at 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [74] Group 3: Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, both significantly lower than market expectations [76] - The data collection for CPI was affected by the government shutdown, leading to potential distortions in the reported figures [76]

本周国际市场风云变幻，美国CPI好于预期，科技股一度遭遇抛售。美股涨跌互现，道指周跌0.67%， 纳指周涨0.48%，标普500指数周涨0.10%，欧洲三大股指走强，英国富时100指数周涨2.57%，德国DAX 30指数周涨1.07%，法国CAC 40指数周涨0.57%。 本周看点颇多，此前美国政府停摆导致多项关键经济数据陆续公布，眼下投资者正通过新发布的数据评 估美国经济表现，并试图从中寻找美联储下一次降息时机的线索。日本央行、澳大利亚联储会议纪要值 得关注，或给出更多政策路径信息。不过，受圣诞及新年假期影响，市场交易料将趋于清淡。 美国GDP数据揭晓 本周公布的数据显示，美国劳动力市场依然显露疲态，通胀虽回落但数据质量存疑。 下周二发布的三季度国内生产总值（GDP）预估值被认为是未来两周美国公布的所有经济数据中的重中 之重。近期各项指标已证实美国劳动力市场正在走弱。这一趋势很可能对整体经济形成拖累，并增加美 联储再次降息的可能性。 法国巴黎银行分析师在一份报告中指出："我们认为最新数据表明美国经济目前基本面尚佳，但风险依 然存在。多项调查显示，家庭对就业市场前景心存担忧，同时已有多家知名企业以人工智能技术 ...

【资讯导读】 ·英国11月CPI同比涨幅放缓至3.2% ·欧洲议会批准逐步停止进口俄天然气计划 ·德国12月商业景气指数环比继续下降 ·委内瑞拉：石油出口业务仍正常进行 【市场资讯】 ·英国11月CPI同比涨幅放缓至3.2%，为今年3月以来的最低水平；环比则下降0.2%，为2024年7月以来最 低水平。英国11月零售物价指数环比下降0.5%，为2023年7月以来最大降幅。市场押注英国央行本周四 将降息。 ·新西兰第三季度GDP环比增长1.1%，经济学家此前预期为增长0.9%。零售支出、制造业和建筑业指标 开始改善。由于经济中仍存在大量闲置产能，预计经济增长在未来一年内不会增加通胀压力。 ·知情人士透露，韩国国家养老基金已启动其最近与韩国央行签署的外汇互换协议。知情人士表示，韩 国国家养老基金本周也开始与央行进行货币对冲交易。 ·美联储官员博斯蒂克称，美联储的政策对结构性就业变革无济于事。 ·据多家美国媒体报道，由于不满英国在食品、工业品标准以及数字监管领域的政策，美国已经暂停执 行今年9月与英国达成的一份科技合作协议。 ·美国《政治报》17日以四名欧盟官员为消息源报道，美国政府近期一直向欧盟成员国施压，要求他 ...

技术面来看，美元兑加元短期处于1.3764-1.3781窄幅震荡区间，日线级别指标呈现中性特征。当前汇价 围绕1.3770关口波动，尚未形成明确趋势方向，MACD指标动能减弱，暗示短期缺乏明确突破动力。关 键阻力位聚焦1.3781当日高点及1.3800心理关口，若有效突破，后续有望向1.3865布林带中轨附近发起 冲击；下方核心支撑则集中在1.3764当日低点及1.3750一线，该点位若失守可能引发进一步回调。 后市展望方面，美元兑加元走势将高度依赖四大核心变量。其一为美国核心PCE数据表现，若今日公布 的数据超预期上行，将强化美联储降息滞后预期，支撑美元走强；其二是加拿大央行政策动向，后续通 胀与就业数据将决定其2026年是否开启降息；其三是原油价格走势，供应过剩压力若持续，将进一步压 制加元；其四是美加贸易谈判进展，协议审查结果可能引发汇价突发波动。机构观点显示，中金预测 2026年美元兑加元中枢在1.35-1.38区间，短期内需重点关注1.3750-1.3800区间突破情况，投资者应保持 谨慎，等待关键信号明确后再布局。 2025年12月16日(周二)亚盘时段，美元兑加元交投于1.3771一线，较前一交 ...

黄金方面： 当地时间12月10日，美联储将公布新一轮利率决议。市场普遍预测可能出现鹰派降息，但也有观点认为，鉴于美国当前就业环 境并未显著改善，决议可能偏向鸽派。 在美联储公布利率决议前夕，市场密切关注美联储决议前公布的少数关键经济数据。美国10月职位空缺数据优于市场预期，显 示出劳动力市场的强劲韧性，这可能是鲍威尔维持鹰派立场的原因之一，进而支撑了美元。 针对最后一次利率决议，市场已充分预期降息25个基点，目前降息的概率接近90%。市场的关注点已不再局限于美联储是否会 降息，而是本次决议将如何为2026年后的美国经济走势定调。 被誉为"美联储传声筒"的尼克·蒂米劳斯在周二表示，尽管存在较大分歧，最终决策者鲍威尔仍有望推动降息。因此，本次会议 的焦点将集中在鲍威尔能否凝聚足够共识，以尽量减少异议。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，当前黄金市场在区间内震荡，缺乏突破潜力；期待本次利率决议能为市场带来明确 政策，助力黄金突破区间。 技术面分析：昨日收小阳线。日线级别显示，黄金在4165美元至4265美元之间震荡。1小时级别则显示市场震荡区间进一步收 窄，目前在4190美元至4220美元之间收敛，晚间重点关注 ...

人民财讯12月1日电，央行召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议；央行、科技部等部门联合召 开科技金融统筹推进机制第一次会议；证监会剑指财务造假，发行人+中介机构被同步追责；工信部： 依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业"内卷式"竞争；11月份我国制造业PMI升至49.2%；国家航天局设立 商业航天司，持续推动商业航天高质量发展；直播电商监管新规拟出台；取款超5万不再需要登记；主 要产油国宣布维持明年头三个月暂停增产计划。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, with the overall impact to be assessed over weeks or months[4] - The IMF predicts that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 will be below the previous forecast of 1.9% due to the shutdown[4] - U.S. October PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations[4][5] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed officials are divided on interest rate decisions, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others prefer to maintain current rates[4] - The probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in December decreased from 66.9% to 44.4%[5] - The weighted average expected policy rate for the end of 2026 increased from 2.90% to 2.96%[5] Group 3: Global Market Trends - U.S. stocks saw modest gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%[11] - European stocks rose, with the STOXX 600 index increasing by 1.8% driven by healthcare valuations[11] - The dollar index weakened by 0.26%, while the euro and pound strengthened against the dollar[20] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, closing at $64.4 and $60.1 per barrel[18] - Gold prices increased by 1.9%, reaching $4,071.1 per ounce, while silver surged by 6.8% to $52.0 per ounce[18]

Group 1 - Global stock markets faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] - The Middle East stock market was the first major market to open for trading this week, showing varied performance across different countries [1] Group 2 - The Egyptian stock market surged over 2.5%, reaching a record closing high, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar indices fell by 1%, indicating a stark contrast in market performance [2] - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [3] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 0.63% to 12.54 Saudi Riyals, while the Egyptian EGX 30 index rose by 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous record [4] Group 3 - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, with the likelihood of maintaining current rates rising to 55.6% [5] - Market analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold in December, contrasting with a month ago when the probability of a rate cut was as high as 95% [6] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to be influenced by external factors, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but overseas rate cut expectations declining [7] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [7]