Group 1: US Employment Data - US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 106,000 and the previous value of 139,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of better-than-expected results [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite hiring uncertainties [1] - Following the non-farm payroll report, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate cut diminished significantly, with the probability dropping from 98% to approximately 80% [1] Group 2: Japan Wage Negotiations - Japan's average wage increase for the fiscal year 2025 reached 5.25%, the highest in 34 years, with small enterprises seeing a growth of 4.65% [2] - The wage growth reflects a tight labor market, potentially supporting the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, although persistent inflation pressures may limit consumer spending and corporate profit margins [2] - Global investors are reducing long positions in the yen due to various short-term challenges, including slow progress on US-Japan trade agreements and uncertainties surrounding Japan's elections [2] Group 3: US Banking Sector - All 22 banks passed the Federal Reserve's stress tests, with an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.6%, significantly above the 4.5% regulatory requirement [3] - Major banks announced increased dividends and stock buyback plans, with Goldman Sachs raising its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, reflecting its strong capital position [3][4] - The banking sector's performance has led to record highs in bank stock prices, with Goldman Sachs' market capitalization surpassing $220 billion [4] Group 4: EDA Software Market - The US government lifted export restrictions on three major chip design software suppliers: Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, allowing them to fully resume services to Chinese clients [5] - These three companies dominate the EDA market, holding a combined market share of 82% in China, with Synopsys at 32%, Cadence at 30%, and Siemens at 13% [5] - Following the announcement, Cadence and Synopsys saw stock price increases of 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, with their combined market capitalization exceeding $170 billion [5] Group 5: Oracle and OpenAI Partnership - OpenAI has agreed to lease significant computing power from Oracle, totaling approximately 4.5 gigawatts, which is enough to power millions of American homes [6] - Oracle's stock price rose over 3%, reaching a new high of $237.03, as the company continues to expand its cloud computing business, particularly targeting AI clients [6][7] - The partnership is part of a larger $500 billion "Star Gate" initiative involving SoftBank, Oracle, and OpenAI, aimed at enhancing cloud computing capabilities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment remains high, with the ChiNext Index strongly rebounding due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. The US labor market shows resilience, affecting the Fed's interest - rate decision and the performance of various financial and commodity markets [2][22]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals like lead may see an upward shift in the price oscillation center, while some agricultural products like corn have a strong spot market due to decreasing visible inventory [6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 6 - month employment report exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The market dispelled the expectation of a July interest - rate cut, and gold is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of decline [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The US has revoked restrictions on China's EDA. The ChiNext Index rebounded strongly due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. It is recommended to evenly allocate various stock indices to cope with sector rotation [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The latest non - farm data in June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate decreasing and new employment exceeding expectations. The US dollar index rebounded significantly. It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US economic data shows resilience, but there are signs of structural deterioration. The US stock market is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the risks of tariff negotiations and weakening economic data. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 572 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The Treasury bond futures are expected to be in an oscillating trend, with a higher probability of strengthening in the future. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal is stabilizing. With the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia, supply has increased slightly. High - temperature weather supports coal prices, making it difficult for them to decline during the peak season [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices have rebounded, with improved spot trading. Although the molten iron output decreased this period, it is expected to remain stable in July, and port inventory will slightly accumulate. The overall trend is difficult to reverse, but it is expected to remain strong in the short term [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. There are rumors about a China - US agreement, but China's purchases of US soybeans remain stagnant. The domestic import cost of soybeans has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products is basically flat compared with last week. The demand decline due to high - temperature weather is not obvious. Although the current expectation and fundamentals are strong, the external demand risk remains. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy on rallies for the spot [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The main hog futures contract LH2509 has risen rapidly. The fundamental sentiment is strong, driving the spot price to stabilize and rebound. However, the supply in July - August is still relatively large, and the long - short game intensifies. It is recommended to wait for the signal of pressure from hog sales and then short on rallies [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The demand for starch sugar fails to meet expectations. The consumption of corn decreases, while that of corn starch increases slightly. The starch is expected to continue to reduce production to reduce inventory. The factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex, and the future is uncertain [45]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The visible inventory of corn continues to decline, and the first batch of imported corn auctions had high premiums, supporting the strong spot market. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts 11 and 01 on rallies [47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton supply is stable, while the demand is uncertain. The trade policy is a major variable. The domestic cotton market is supported by a tight supply of old - crop commercial inventory but is dragged down by the weak downstream industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply - demand in the long term. The price oscillation center may shift upward. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened, and the domestic inventory has increased. The macro - situation affects the price, and fundamentally, there is an expectation of oversupply in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Policy rumors drive the polysilicon futures price up, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price still has downward pressure. It is recommended to stop profiting from the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread due to high policy - related risks [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased. The supply side has new changes, and the demand side may be affected by polysilicon production cuts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Copper prices are affected by factors such as AI, renewable energy, and tariffs. The US non - farm data affects the dollar index and copper prices. The domestic inventory shows a weak accumulation trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased strategy for the short - term high - level oscillation [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Fulin Seiko and Chuanfa Longmang is expected to enhance the former's layout in the lithium - battery material industry. The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price up. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of LME and SHFE has decreased. The raw - material cost support is weakening, and the supply of nickel is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [73]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical Industry (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly production of domestic LPG has decreased, and the inventory has also decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is no upward price drive [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical Industry (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The summer temperature will support the price, and the demand for gas - electricity is expected to decline slightly. The NYMEX is expected to oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly, with improved demand and increased supply. The futures price has rebounded, but the rebound height is expected to be limited [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical Industry (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable with a slight decline. The futures price is rising slightly. The market is expected to oscillate due to the weak fundamentals [83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is narrowly adjusted. The futures price is oscillating. The inventory is turning from decreasing to increasing, and the subsequent market rise may be limited [85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene has decreased slightly. The supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene has different trends. The future supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken. It is recommended to pay attention to the release rhythm of Yulong's new capacity [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemical Industry (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories has been mostly reduced. The factories plan to cut production in July. If the production cuts are implemented, the inventory pressure will be relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin on dips [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemical Industry (Carbon Emissions) - The EU Commission proposes a flexible 2040 climate target, but there are many internal objections. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The market is in a weak adjustment, with high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [92]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has decreased slightly. The futures price has risen slightly, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed much. It is recommended to consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - commodity arbitrage strategy [93].

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed a consistent and clear stance on the potential visit of a U.S. business delegation to China, emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation to enhance Sino-U.S. economic relations [2] - Siemens confirmed that the U.S. government has lifted the licensing requirements for exporting chip design software to China, allowing full access for Chinese customers to their software and technology [2] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade grew steadily in the first five months of 2025, with total service trade reaching 32,543.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting focusing on accelerating the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, addressing issues of low-price competition and promoting the exit of outdated capacity [3] - The Tianjin Municipal Government is soliciting opinions on a plan to enhance the development of new productivity through technology finance, aiming to support 300 companies in listing and establishing a reserve of 100 technology firms with listing potential [4] - Chinese scientists made a breakthrough in brain mapping research, successfully creating a three-dimensional brain region and stereotactic atlas with a resolution of 1 micron, providing a key tool for neuroscience [4] Group 3 - The National Medical Products Administration announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision of high-end medical devices, supporting the rapid market entry of innovative medical devices with significant clinical value [5] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the non-farm employment population in June increased by 147,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [5] Group 4 - Li Lecheng, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, emphasized the need for comprehensive governance of the photovoltaic industry to promote sustainable development [3] - Huazhong Steel received a stake increase from Xintai Life Insurance, raising its holding to 5% [7] - China Merchants Bank has been approved to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [15]

美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子和西门子，此前要求其在华业 务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子称已全面恢复中国客户对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思 科技与楷登电子称正在逐步重启相关服务。美国国会众议院以 218 票赞成、 214 票反对的表决结果通过 了总统特朗普推动的"大而美"税收与支出法案。该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及 大企业减税等而备受争议。白宫说，特朗普定于 7 月 4 日即美国"独立日"当天签署该法案，使其生效。 该法案将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限提高 5 万亿美元，国会预算办公室（ CBO ）估计，这可能会让 政府预算赤字未来十年内增加 3.4 万亿美元。国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一， COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.71% 报 3336.00 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.85% 报 37.04 美元 / 盎司。美联储政策转向预期 与贸易紧张局势支撑金价，但强劲非农数据削弱避险需求。美国财长暗示更大降息幅度，欧盟与美国贸 易谈判进展引发市场关注。 重点品种： 贵金属、甲醇、玻璃 甲醇： 甲醇上涨 0.88% 。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃 ...

Group 1: US-China Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed hope for mutual respect and cooperation in US-China economic relations, following reports of a potential visit by a US presidential delegation to China [2] - The US government has lifted certain export restrictions on semiconductor design software to China, which could significantly impact the Chinese EDA software market, where three major companies hold an 82% market share [3] Group 2: Corporate News - Cloudy Yihai's CEO pleaded guilty in a food poisoning case involving ByteDance employees in Singapore, with evidence showing a bacterial contamination level 2000 times above the legal limit [5][6] - Rumors regarding Pop Mart's acquisition of a property in London for £63 million were denied by the company, labeling the information as false [13][14] - Xiaohongshu denied rumors of being acquired by Alibaba, reiterating that such claims are unfounded [18][19] Group 3: Financial Developments - Vanke received a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from its major shareholder to address maturing debts, with a loan interest rate of 2.34% [24] - Yushu Technology is reportedly planning an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, following a name change that suggests preparations for public listing [21][22] Group 4: Regulatory Actions - France imposed a €40 million fine on SHEIN for violations related to product pricing and environmental labeling, highlighting increased scrutiny on Chinese e-commerce platforms [26][27] - Nearly 50 European companies are urging the EU to delay the implementation of new AI regulations, citing concerns over innovation and competitiveness [28][29]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has responded to reports about the U.S. President's planned business delegation visit to China, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and cooperation to enhance Sino-U.S. economic relations [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has notified major global chip design software suppliers, including Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, that the previous requirement for government licensing for their operations in China has been lifted, allowing Siemens to fully restore access for Chinese customers [1] - The National Medical Products Administration of China is focusing on the full lifecycle regulation of high-end medical devices, proposing ten key measures to support major innovations in this sector [1] Group 2 - Shanghai plans to optimize the outbound tax refund consumption environment, aiming to have over 3,000 tax refund stores and more than 10,000 outlets by 2027, with over 80% of stores offering "buy and refund" services [2] - The Ministry of Emergency Management has indicated that China has entered the main flood season, with 2 to 3 typhoons expected to impact the country in July [2] Group 3 - The total summer grain purchase in China has exceeded 50 million tons as the purchasing season peaks [3] - The State Council has issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, covering various sectors including service trade and digital trade [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced a list of 12 companies for IPO inspections, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [4] Group 4 - Insurance funds have significantly increased their stake acquisitions in the capital market, with 18 instances recorded in 2025, surpassing the total for 2023 [4] - Seven brokerage firms have conducted share buybacks in the first half of the year, totaling 191 million shares and 2.03 billion yuan in buyback amounts, indicating a positive market environment for the brokerage sector [4] Group 5 - Tesla's sales in Germany fell by 60% in June, with total sales for the first half of 2025 down by 58.2% [5] - Audi has announced that it will not raise prices in the U.S. market in July, as it faces a continuous decline in sales for six consecutive quarters [5] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new record high for the year [5] Group 6 - The conversation between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump covered issues such as the Middle East situation and Russia-Ukraine negotiations [6] Group 7 - Guangzhou Railway Station has undergone upgrades that are expected to transform the surrounding commercial area [7] - The market for virtual assets is gaining momentum, with stablecoins becoming a hot topic in both Hong Kong and mainland stock markets [7]

Group 1 - China's successful launch of the experimental satellite Tiankong-28B01 demonstrates the country's solid development in space technology, with the Long March 4B rocket completing its 583rd flight [1] - The satellite is primarily used for space environment detection and related technology experiments, reinforcing China's capability in autonomous space technology [1] Group 2 - Siemens announced that the U.S. government has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China, allowing full access for Chinese customers to Siemens' software and technology [2] - This change indicates a potential easing of trade tensions and could enhance collaboration in the technology sector between the U.S. and China [2] Group 3 - The National Medical Products Administration of China is implementing supportive policies for high-end medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology, aiming to optimize the innovation review process [3] - The initiative includes special reviews for innovative medical devices with significant clinical value, enhancing communication between applicants and review experts [3] - The regulatory framework aims to accelerate the market entry of high-end medical devices, ultimately improving accessibility to advanced medical technologies for patients [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has lifted export restrictions on three chip design software suppliers, allowing them to resume exports to China, signaling a potential easing of trade tensions [1] - The companies affected include Synopsys, Siemens, and Cadence, which collectively hold over 70% of the global EDA market share [1] - Following the announcement, shares of U.S. chip design software companies rose, with Synopsys increasing by over 6% and Cadence by 5.5% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. also lifted licensing requirements for two ethane producers, Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer, allowing them to resume exports to China [2] - Prior to this, U.S. ethane exports to China had significantly declined due to the implementation of licensing measures, with many vessels stalled [2] - Analysts suggest that these actions indicate a planned progression towards a "trade truce" between the U.S. and China [2] Group 3 - Experts view these moves as a positive signal for U.S.-China trade negotiations, potentially fostering further trust and cooperation [3] - However, there are still fundamental issues to address, such as increasing Chinese purchases of U.S. goods and allowing more U.S. companies access to the Chinese market [3]

Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the ADP employment numbers in the U.S. decreased by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with May's figures revised down to an increase of only 29,000 [1] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [1] - Despite the job losses, year-on-year wage growth remained stable at 4.4%, only slightly down from 4.5% in May [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump announced that Vietnam agreed to open its market to U.S. products at zero tariffs, while U.S. exports to Vietnam would face at least a 20% tariff [3] - The trade deficit with Vietnam exceeds $123 billion, with the U.S. importing over $136 billion from Vietnam in 2024 [3] - The potential trade agreement could impact China's transshipment trade, as Vietnam's supply chain heavily relies on Chinese technology and materials [4] Group 3: Technology Exports - The U.S. government has lifted some export restrictions on EDA software to China, which could enhance China's semiconductor design capabilities [5] - Major EDA companies hold approximately 82% of the Chinese market, indicating a significant reliance on U.S. technology [5] - The easing of restrictions may encourage Chinese firms to increase their preference for domestic EDA software solutions [6] Group 4: Real Estate Policies - Guangzhou is proposing a "commercial to public loan" policy to convert commercial housing loans to public housing loans when the public loan rate is below 75% [7] - This policy aims to stimulate demand in the real estate market while ensuring liquidity safety [8] Group 5: Gaming Market - Tencent and ByteDance are competing for the burgeoning mini-game market, which is projected to generate revenues of 39.836 billion yuan in 2024, a 99.18% increase year-on-year [9] - The mini-game sector benefits from low entry barriers and high user engagement, making it an attractive area for both companies [10] Group 6: IPO Activity - In the first half of the year, A-share IPO applications exceeded the total for the previous year, with 177 companies applying [11] - The total financing scale reached 38 billion yuan, a 25.53% increase year-on-year [12] - The surge in IPO applications is attributed to companies rushing to submit before the financial reports expire [12] Group 7: Market Trends - A-share new account openings reached 1.65 million in June, a 53% year-on-year increase, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts in the first half of the year [13] - The overall trading volume in June was 26.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a 79.57% increase compared to the previous year [13] - The market's performance in June was characterized by a lack of significant upward momentum, despite the increase in new accounts [14]

Group 1 - The National Medical Products Administration has announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, along with policies for medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology [1] - The Trump administration has lifted some export licensing requirements for chip design software to China, allowing major chip software companies like Synopsys to resume supply to China [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch reported that silicon wafer prices are currently below the cash costs of most producing silicon wafer companies, leading to strong price support intentions from companies; production cuts among silicon wafer manufacturers have noticeably increased under low-price conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing the need for legal and regulatory compliance to address low-price disorder in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry stating that China advocates for resolving trade differences through equal dialogue and negotiation, and that such negotiations should not target or harm the interests of third parties [1] Group 2 - The company Weiming Pharmaceutical has experienced a situation that may trigger other risk warnings after two consecutive trading halts [2] - Wealth Trend's actual controller and chairman plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [2] - Yamaton, which has seen two consecutive trading halts, did not disclose its own production arrangements or performance forecasts in an interview regarding the photovoltaic glass industry's temporary production cuts [2] - Huayin Power, after two consecutive trading halts, expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million to 220 million yuan for the half-year period (unaudited) [2] - Jieli Rigging, which has seen two consecutive trading halts, confirmed that it does not violate information disclosure regulations [2] - Chengbang Co., which has seen six consecutive trading halts, has a high pledge ratio for its controlling shareholder and concerted parties [2] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of no more than 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and has extended part of its existing loans [2] - Dazhongnan, which has seen eight consecutive trading halts, produces CPP aluminum-plastic film suitable for solid-state lithium battery packaging but has not yet started production of this product [2]