Core Viewpoint - Haotong Technology (301026.SZ) has approved the application for designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which is expected to enhance the company's risk resistance and market competitiveness, thereby improving profitability [1] Group 1 - The seventh board of directors' tenth meeting approved the proposal to apply for designated delivery warehouses for platinum and palladium futures [1] - The company is authorized to submit application materials and handle related matters [1] - This application aims to integrate the spot market, futures market, and delivery warehouses, enhancing the company's overall operational capabilities [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US stock market continues to decline despite an improvement in the "small non - farm" data. The international economic and trade order is impacted by high tariffs and other barriers. [1] - The stock index market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. The technology sector is a long - term focus. The domestic glass and纯碱 markets are in a process of inventory digestion, and the crude oil market has a downward trend. [2][3] 3. Summary by Category A. Main News - **International News**: Trump claims to have selected the next Fed Chair candidate, and the short - listed candidates include current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. [6] - **Domestic News**: In October, the unemployment rates of the non - student urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 are 17.3%, 7.2%, and 3.8% respectively. [1][7] - **Industry News**: After Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Tianjin, Nanjing and Suzhou in Jiangsu Province will carry out real - estate trust property registration pilot projects. [8] B. Performance of Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: US indices decline. The domestic stock index market had a correction, with the media and computer sectors leading the rise, and coal and power equipment sectors leading the fall. The trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The technology sector is a long - term direction, and the market is expected to maintain a long - term slow - bull trend. [2][11] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures remain weak, with last week's inventory at 5962 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 54 million heavy cases. Soda ash futures slightly decline, with last week's inventory at 154.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 tons. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. [2][17] - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rises 0.74%. An attack on a port in Russia causes it to suspend oil exports, equivalent to 2% of global supply. US refined oil demand is lower than last year, and the number of online drilling rigs shows a long - term downward trend. [3][13] C. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The long - term trend is positive, with a focus on the technology sector. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and external funds may flow in. [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rise slightly. The central bank's open - market operations and the economic situation at home and abroad affect the bond market. The market liquidity is expected to be reasonably abundant. [12] - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse, affected by supply and demand factors. [3][13] - **Methanol**: It rises slightly at night. The inventory is accumulating, and the short - term trend is weak. [14] - **Rubber**: It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, affected by supply and demand and weather conditions. [15] - **Polyolefins**: Futures decline. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by the overall market. It may continue to fluctuate at a low level. [16] - **Metals** - **Copper**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the long - term price may be supported by the supply - demand gap. [19] - **Zinc**: The price rises at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and the price may fluctuate within a range. [20] - **Black Products** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend may correct, depending on factors such as supply, steel de - stocking speed, and iron - water production. [21] - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: It adjusts weakly at night. The US soybean production and inventory data are mixed, and the domestic market is in a loose pattern. [22] - **Oils and Fats**: They run strongly at night. The palm oil market has different supply - demand situations, and the soybean oil is supported. The rapeseed oil may fluctuate. [23] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is expected to decline, while the domestic market may fluctuate within a range. [24][25] - **Cotton**: The price is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. [26] - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price fluctuates and declines. The price support in November is uncertain, and the 02 contract has limited upward space. [27]

| G国贸期货 | 日時 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 20 | 份格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 農湯 | | 投稿 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 无刘全部 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 国 | 震荡 | 至间。 | 近期市场对美联储12月降息预期降温,铜价回调,但预计回调幅 | | | | | 農汤 | 度有限。 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而美联储12月份降息预期降温,铝价回调 | | | | | | 農汤 | JE | 在生产仍有小幅利润情况下,国内氧化铝产能持续释放,氧化铝 | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价格继续围绕 | HE STAC | 成本线附近震荡运行。 | 美联储12月降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, and agricultural products, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions. For example, it suggests short - term trading opportunities in oil and copper, and provides outlooks on the price trends of other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, and lithium carbonate. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: After OPEC and IEA adjusted their balance sheet forecasts, and EIA crude oil inventories increased by 641,300 barrels last week, there is still room for the oil price to decline this year. Traders are advised to look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by Russian supply risks but is offset by OPEC+ production increases. Low - sulfur fuel oil benefits from supply pressure relief and demand improvement in the fourth - quarter shipping season. The previously - laid out strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread has been gradually realized, and it is advisable to consider closing positions [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The international LPG market is strong, with tight import supply. Improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation devices and increased demand for combustion due to cooling weather have tightened supply - demand, so LPG is expected to be strong [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information provided. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: With Mongolian coal imports at a high level and a slight decline in coking coal mine production, the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The coking coal price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [17]. - **Thermal Coal**: No relevant information provided. - **Urea**: Market rumors of the release of the fifth batch of export quotas support the market, but caution is needed during the key storage period. Xinjiang Zhongneng's new device is producing, and industrial demand is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward price center [24]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures contract is in a low - level oscillation. Port inventories are increasing, overseas device operation rates are high, and downstream demand is weak. However, the valuation is low, and the market may rebound with positive news [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US government ended its shutdown, the sustainability of the upward movement of international gold and silver is questionable, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous high levels [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After the US government ended its shutdown, the market focused on economic growth. Domestic copper inventories increased, and the copper price is in a short - term oscillation. Short - term high - level short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand of the aluminum market is promising. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price has reached a three - year high. Attention should be paid to capital trends [4]. - **Zinc**: Overseas smelter profits are recovering, and domestic smelters are reducing production. The gap between domestic and foreign fundamentals is narrowing. It is advisable to close long - short cross - market arbitrage positions and consider short - long cross - market arbitrage [7]. - **Lead**: No relevant information provided. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is affected by overall over - supply, and the price is weak. Stainless steel prices are also under pressure [9]. - **Tin**: The tin market is trading on the tight current situation, but the trend of inventory reduction is unclear. From a fundamental perspective, short positions can be considered for the long - term [10]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and there is no obvious driving force for the price difference [5]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is oscillating, with a large - scale steel mill's tender price unchanged. Iron - water production has increased, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is oscillating, with a large - scale steel mill's tender price increasing. Demand is resilient, and supply is high. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [19]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Rebar demand has declined slightly, and hot - rolled coil demand is stable. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Cement**: No relevant information provided. - **Glass**: The glass market is weak, with high intermediate inventories. The cost has increased, and the profit has narrowed. The price is expected to have limited decline space, and it is advisable to wait and see [32]. - **Gypsum Board**: No relevant information provided. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene market supply is loose, and demand is supported to some extent. Polyethylene demand is weakening, and polypropylene prices are showing signs of stabilizing [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a narrow - range oscillation. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact, and the market is supply - high and demand - low. Caustic soda is in an oscillating trend, with cost increasing and demand weak [29]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline prices are strong, and the price of pure benzene has elasticity, but downstream profits are weak, and caution is needed when looking at the rebound height [26]. - **Styrene**: The overseas market is strong, but domestic supply is expected to increase [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. A short - term bearish view is maintained [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and the long - term problem of over - capacity exists [31]. - **PTA & PX**: Affected by the tight overseas aromatic hydrocarbon market, PX and PTA prices have rebounded, but there is still an expectation of industry production reduction. Caution is needed when being bullish [29]. - **Asphalt**: The decline of asphalt has slowed down, and the demand is lower than expected. The inventory reduction has slowed down, and the long - term fundamentals are bearish [22]. Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: The selling progress of corn in Northeast China is slower than expected, and the price is stable and slightly strong. The price of wheat is weakening. The Dalian corn futures contract is expected to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Rice**: No relevant information provided. - **Oilseeds & Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a recent high. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in South America is slow, and attention should be paid to the USDA November supply - demand report. There may be opportunities to go long at low prices after Sino - US trade eases [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: This week, attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is strong, soybean oil follows, and palm oil has a weak follow - up. The price of palm oil is oscillating, and attention should be paid to its supply - demand and the trend of surrounding oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil is strong, with inventory declining. The Canadian bio - fuel incentive plan boosts demand. The rapeseed price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and the oil - strong and meal - weak situation is expected to continue [37]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar price faces pressure. In China, the market focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate, and the production expectation in Guangxi is good [43]. - **Cotton**: Before the release of the US agricultural report, the market is cautious. The new - cotton cost provides support, but the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: The apple price has risen sharply. The inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the short - term price is strong. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure on the far - month contract [44]. - **Oranges**: No relevant information provided. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The far - month futures price of pigs is rising, and the near - month price follows. The spot price is weak. The market is trading on the expectation of capacity reduction, and the price is expected to have a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. - **Chickens**: No relevant information provided. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price is falling, and the supply is at a high level. High - level short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to spot performance and old - hen culling [41]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is in an oscillating pattern. The realization of the price increase in December is in question, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [20]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has risen, and the inventory has increased. The overseas price is strong, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is advisable to hold long positions cautiously [46]. - **Timber**: The timber price is weak, with high external quotes and low domestic prices. The demand provides support, and the inventory is low. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares opened low and closed high, and the stock index futures rose. Overseas markets are weak, and the risk preference has declined. Technology and advanced manufacturing are still the mid - term focus, and attention can be paid to the recovery opportunities of consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures have declined, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The A-share market showed a general upward trend on Thursday, with cyclical sectors performing actively and some high-dividend sectors slightly correcting. The bond market was affected by the strong performance of the risk market, and the precious metal market experienced a decline after an initial rise. The shipping index fluctuated, and various commodity futures markets had different trends [2][5][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For stock index futures, it is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. For bond futures, it is advisable to wait for the release of economic data and consider going long on dips. For precious metals, it is recommended to buy on dips. For various commodity futures, different trading strategies are proposed according to their respective market conditions [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market rose across the board on Thursday, with major indices closing in the green. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest rate bonds mostly rose. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between multiple and short factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees and the fermentation of broad monetary policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on dips [5][6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US government ended its shutdown, and Fed officials were cautious about a December rate cut, causing precious metals to rise initially and then fall. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **EC**: The spot price is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1650 - 1850 points. It is recommended to conduct band operations [11][12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The liquidity risk has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's rate cut rhythm and Sino-US tariff situation [12][13][15]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction trend of high-cost enterprises [15][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: The market shows a strong macro-drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [21][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of demand and the change of inventory [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: The supply side remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [27][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The market is in a state of more short-term and long-term factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak macro-drive and strong fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and steel mill supply [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of strong supply and demand expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and the marginal change of demand [37][40][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a state of high price and weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the establishment of platform companies and the change of demand [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is in a state of supply pressure and cost support, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][46]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The overall demand for five major steel products declined, and steel mills reduced production. The inventory continued to be destocked. It is recommended to short on rallies and hold the long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market fluctuated. The global shipment volume decreased, the port arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side and partially take profit on the long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market showed a low-level volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The coke market showed a low-level volatile trend. The fourth round of price increases was partially implemented, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [56][58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot market price was stable with an upward adjustment, and the rapeseed meal market price decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair of crushing margins and the adjustment of the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report [59].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased slightly, while other base metals mostly declined, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the reopening of the U.S. government [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On November 13, LME three-month copper rose by $12, or 0.11%, closing at $10,956 per ton [2]. - During the trading session, copper prices briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $11,000, reaching $11,018 per ton for the first time this month before retracting [1]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum increased by $2, or 0.07%, closing at $2,896.50 per ton [2]. - In contrast, three-month zinc decreased by $20, or 0.65%, to $3,055.00 per ton, and three-month lead fell by $17.50, or 0.84%, to $2,078.00 per ton [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Analysts emphasize that strong demand, particularly from major consumer countries, is crucial for sustaining price increases [4]. - Investors are awaiting key economic data from China, including new home prices, retail sales, and industrial output [5]. - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President noted mixed economic signals, with inflation around 3% and pressures in certain labor market sectors [5]. Group 4: Aluminum Price Forecast - ANZ raised its short-term aluminum price target from $2,700 to $2,900 per ton due to strong demand from manufacturing, construction, and automotive sectors [5]. - The bank forecasts aluminum prices could reach $3,000 per ton by June 2026, driven by tightening supply against rising demand [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and the bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [6]. - For precious metals, in the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio still has room for further downward repair [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; aluminum prices may rise further; zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle; lead prices are expected to be strong; nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term; tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile; lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [10][12][14][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future; iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short term; glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities; for industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation, and polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [31][33][35][37][39][43][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for short - term trading; for crude oil, a low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended; for methanol, it is recommended to observe; for urea, it is recommended to observe; for pure benzene and styrene, styrene prices may stop falling; for PVC, it is recommended to short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies; for PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up; for p - xylene, pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity; for polyethylene, prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation; for polypropylene, prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [50][52][53][54][57][59][61][63][65][68][70]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the first strategy is to do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies; for eggs, prices are expected to be strong in the short term; for soybean and rapeseed meal, short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies; for oils and fats, take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline; for sugar, wait to short after the rebound weakens; for cotton, prices are expected to be in oscillation [73][76][78][81][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Energy Administration explores the construction of new water - wind - solar integration bases; the China Photovoltaic Industry Association refutes rumors; Haibo Sichuang signs a cooperation agreement with CATL; Morgan Stanley raises the target prices of Samsung and SK Hynix and predicts a rise in DRAM and NAND prices [2]. - **Strategy**: The market's main line is technology growth. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The Fed has a growing divergence on December rate cuts, and the US - EU trade tension affects European enterprises. The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1300 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The retirement of the Atlanta Fed President may bring a dovish tendency. The US government is likely to reopen, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - **Strategy**: Go long on silver on dips, and the gold - silver ratio has room for downward repair [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose slightly. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference declined [9]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong but pulled back. The weighted contract positions increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [11]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may rise further [12]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle [14]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased continuously [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell. The spot premium was stable, the nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price fell [18]. - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term, and consider going long if the price drops enough [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The warehouse receipts decreased, the tin concentrate price rose, and the smelting plant's operating rate rebounded but remained low due to raw material shortages [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices were in high - level oscillation. The spot index declined slightly, and the futures contract price rose slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the high - level selling pressure, and focus on December's lithium - battery material production and the equity market atmosphere [22]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The positions increased, the basis was at a discount, and the overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts were unchanged [23]. - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term, and focus on supply - side policies and other factors [24]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The positions increased, the spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [25][26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. The positions increased, the trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions decreased [30]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The positions decreased, and the spot price rose. The Simandou iron ore project was put into production [32]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and the inventory decreased; soda ash prices fell, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Both are in the oscillation range [38]. - **Strategy**: The short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [39]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Industrial silicon production increased, and polysilicon production decreased in November [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation; polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [43][45]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The 11 - month warehouse receipts are about to expire, and there are different views on the market [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [50]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related refined product prices rose [51]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and observe in the short term [52]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [53]. - **Strategy**: Observe [53]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [54]. - **Strategy**: Observe [54]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices were mixed. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling [57]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies [59]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies [61]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [62]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up [63]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity [65]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Polyethylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [66][67]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation [68]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Polypropylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell. The demand was weak, and the supply was high [72]. - **Strategy**: First, do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies [73][74]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was average [75]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term [76]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean inventory increased, and the meal price was stable [77]. - **Strategy**: Short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies [78]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil prices were mixed. The production increased, and the export decreased; rapeseed production was stable [79][80]. - **Strategy**: Take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline [81]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices were in oscillation. Brazilian sugar production increased, and the global supply surplus was revised down [82]. - **Strategy**: Wait to short after the rebound weakens [83]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices were in oscillation. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [84][85]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be in oscillation [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have seen rapid rotation, with the technology - growth sector remaining the market's main theme. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - Given that the Fed's current easing cycle is in its early stage, it is advisable to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - The short - term trend of copper prices is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while aluminum prices may rise further. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term [13][15][17][20][22]. - The short - term trend of tin prices is expected to be strong and volatile. The price of lithium carbonate may see high - level selling pressure. Alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [24][27][29][32][34]. - Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term but may see a demand inflection point in the future. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term. Glass prices are expected to remain weak, and soda ash prices may continue to fluctuate [38][40][42][44]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short. Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [48][51][53]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and other chemical products are generally recommended to be observed [59][62][63][64]. - For agricultural products, the general strategy for hogs is to go short on rebounds, eggs are expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term, and soybean meal is recommended to be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term. The trend of oils and fats depends on the export and production of palm oil, and sugar is recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [83][85][87][90][92][96]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the financial market, and Mexico has postponed the plan to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports. SoftBank has sold all its Nvidia shares worth $5.83 billion [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and the technology - growth sector is the main theme. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The main contracts of treasury bonds showed different changes. The 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, and the US Senate has passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown. The central bank conducted a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The CPI in October exceeded expectations, and the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve in the fourth quarter, and the market is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver showed different trends. The US non - farm payroll data could not be released normally, and the US government shutdown problem is likely to be resolved, which will improve market liquidity [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market prices a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December. It is advisable to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for gold and silver contracts are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices adjusted. LME and domestic warehouse inventories decreased, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The expected reopening of the US government and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, and copper prices may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China narrowed [14]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas supply concerns and expected improvement in domestic exports may push aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to changes in domestic inventories [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are provided, and the import loss of zinc ingots was - 4957.57 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to tighten marginally. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [18][19]. - **Strategy View**: Lead concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of lead is expected to be tight in the near - term. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [21]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider going long if the price drops sufficiently [22]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [23]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in tight balance, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips [24]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the futures price decreased slightly [26]. - **Strategy View**: The demand is expected to reach a new high this month, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [27]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decreased slightly. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase [28]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [29]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices decreased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The inventory is being released, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [30][31]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weak in the short - term due to supply - demand imbalance [32]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices decreased. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [34]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, but demand may improve in the future [38]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices decreased slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand from steel mills weakened. The port inventory increased [39]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of iron ore is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to weaken. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [40]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash decreased, and the inventory increased [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market lacks fundamental support and is expected to remain weak. The soda ash market is expected to be volatile due to supply - demand factors [42][44]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The market is affected by macro and fundamental factors [45]. - **Strategy View**: The price trend is affected by macro events. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short [47][48]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon decreased. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease in the future [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [51][53]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The opening rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the inventory increased [55][57]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions [59]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products decreased. The inventory of refined products in Fujeirah Port increased [60]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [62]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, leading to an increase in inventory [63]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [63]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of urea is in a relatively loose pattern, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [64]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply and demand showed different trends [65]. - **Strategy View**: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily due to inventory reduction, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair [67]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of PVC is imbalanced, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [69]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short on rallies [71]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable, and the inventory is expected to increase [72]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the processing fee is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN [73]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of p - xylene is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium - term [75]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The price of PE is expected to remain low and volatile due to factors such as inventory and demand [78]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP decreased. The supply is expected to be under pressure, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally [79]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [80]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was not improved [82]. - **Strategy View**: The future supply of hogs is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short - term, there may be a rebound [83]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. The supply was stable, and the demand was general [84]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term. It is recommended to observe or trade short - term [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans was stable. The domestic soybean inventory was at a high level, and the demand for soybean meal was weak [86]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans fluctuates, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production showed different trends. The US Department of Agriculture will release a report [88]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of palm oil is expected to be large, and the price trend depends on production and export. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective [90]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fluctuated. India has allowed sugar exports, and the opening of sugar mills in China has different situations [91]. - **Strategy View**: The import control of syrup and premix has driven up the price of sugar, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton fluctuated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton market lacks strong driving factors, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [96].