证券之星消息，格林美(002340)09月22日在投资者关系平台上答复投资者关心的问题。 投资者提问：董秘好，刚果(金)钴供应收紧，市场普遍看好印尼钴资源。请问公司印尼项目的伴生钴产 能有多少，禁令对公司有什么影响? 格林美回复：感谢您的关注！格林美印尼镍冶炼项目产能共15万金属吨/年，可伴生钴资源约1.2万金属 吨/年。2025年上半年，公司印尼镍资源项目自产钴金属3,667吨，同比增长125%。2024年和2025年上半 年，公司钴回收分别达10,128吨和5,187吨，这不仅显著强化了公司镍钴原料的自主可控能力，更在全球 钴供应链面临重大政策扰动之际，构筑起一道坚实的资源护城河。刚果（金）出口配额政策可能加剧中 间流通环节的供给紧张和价格波动，但对格林美而言，这恰恰是彰显其一体化优势的战略契机。公司依 托印尼资源实现钴原料高度自供，有效对冲外部依赖风险，大幅平滑采购成本，同时MHP产品极强的 成本竞争力（吨镍成本经钴收益抵扣后极具弹性）将驱动利润空间显著扩张。在行业面临"无钴可用"的 困境时，格林美稳定的自供能力将成为下游客户争夺的关键资源，进而加速市场份额提升，强化行业定 价权。 以上内容为证券之星据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting highlighted significant divisions among members, indicating ongoing challenges for the Fed's independence and a prevailing expectation for future rate cuts, which supports a long-term upward trend for gold and copper prices [2][6][8]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.05% and silver by 1.6%, while SHFE gold and silver fell by 0.73% and 0.89% respectively [4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, leading to a slight pullback in precious metal prices as the market had already priced in the rate cut [8][26]. - Despite the cautious tone from Fed Chair Powell, the long-term drivers for gold remain strong due to a weak labor market, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the dollar's credibility [8][53]. Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a technical pullback, with COMEX copper down by 0.38% and SHFE copper down by 1.52% [4]. - The FOMC meeting led to a retreat in copper prices as traders took profits, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the meeting [6][10]. - Despite being in a typical consumption peak season, copper demand has shown weakness, and while price declines may stimulate some buying, expectations for a robust demand recovery are tempered [12][53]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased, surpassing 310,000 tons, indicating potential supply pressures despite a forecasted rise in imports [12][13]. - The copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) index fell to -41.25 USD/ton, reflecting a cautious market with subdued trading activity [15]. Market Dynamics - The overall market sentiment for both precious metals and copper is influenced by the Fed's policy direction, with ongoing discussions about future rate cuts being a key factor in price movements [6][8][10]. - The interplay between supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the copper market, suggests that while prices may stabilize, significant upward movement is limited due to anticipated increases in imports and existing supply pressures [12][13].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Liqin Resources (02245) experienced a significant stock price increase of 8.1% to HKD 16.54, driven by news regarding cobalt export regulations in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - The Congolese government announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, with a planned lifting on October 16, and will implement annual export quotas [1] - The annual export limit for cobalt is set at 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025, and 96,600 tons for both 2026 and 2027, indicating a controlled supply environment [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the tightening supply situation is expected to lead to a continued rise in cobalt prices in the short term, with strong long-term support for cobalt price levels due to the government's clear stance on supply control [1] - Minsheng Securities reported that Liqin Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, all expected to be operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a significant production capacity increase planned, with phase one of the pyrometallurgical project already producing 95,000 tons, and additional production lines expected to come online in 2025 and 2026, raising total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Youyan New Materials (SH 600206) held a temporary board meeting on September 19, 2025, to discuss a proposal regarding equity investment in Rongcheng Rare Earth by Youyan Rare Earth and Zhukou Group [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, Youyan New Materials' revenue composition is as follows: electronic new materials account for 74.79%, rare earth metal smelting accounts for 23.86%, medical device materials account for 0.87%, and other businesses account for 0.47% [1] - As of the report date, Youyan New Materials has a market capitalization of 17.8 billion yuan [1]

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 19 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：下跌只是插曲，潜力悄然集聚 美国上周首申失业金人数超预期大幅回落至 23.1 万，较前周降 3.2 万，创近四 年最大降幅。回落主要反映了德州地区异常数据的正常化，德州上周从申请人数 增幅最大的州转为降幅最大的州。英国央行决定维持利率不变，但对年内进一步 降息持谨慎态度，原因是对通胀反弹的担忧日益加剧，英国央行声明称，虽然预 期通胀将回到 2%的目标，但尚未走出困境。海外投资者 7 月美债持仓再创新高， 日本持仓又创逾一年新高，中国持仓创逾十六年新低，加拿大持仓剧减 571 亿美 元。 重点品种：股指、黄金、铜 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指冲高回落，电子板块领涨，有色金属 板块领跌，市场成交额 3.17 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 17 日融资余额增加 127.11 亿元至 23885.22 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折，我们认 为是进入了持续上涨后的高位整固阶段，在行情长时间持续上涨后部分资金在高 位对冲需求增加使得多空力量出现一定分歧从而带来股指较大波动，但从中长期 角度来说，我们认为中国资本市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. The Canadian central bank also cut rates. Hong Kong aims to assist mainland tech firms in financing, promote RMB - denominated trading of Hong Kong stocks, and build a regional gold reserve hub [1]. - Gold has long - term upward drivers due to factors like the Fed's rate - cut cycle, weak U.S. employment data, and central banks' gold purchases, but short - term adjustments may occur after the expected rate cut [2]. - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, along with mixed downstream demand [3]. - The Chinese stock index has entered a high - level consolidation phase in September. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun, with different index characteristics for offensive and defensive strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day - **International News**: On September 18, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with the dot - plot indicating another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 and a 2026 median rate of 3.4% [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China requires leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas like chips [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public comments on a mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles' combined driving assistance systems. From January to July, the sales of passenger cars with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.7599 million, a 21.31% year - on - year increase [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.63%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.85%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 1.93%, and other commodities had various changes in price on September 17 compared to September 16 [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance. The Chinese stock index rose, with the power equipment sector leading the gain and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.40 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased on September 16. September's trend is more volatile, and the market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just started [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank increased net reverse - repurchase operations. With the Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and the bond price has stabilized [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.52% at night. Eight countries decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel voluntary cut may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.67% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol inventory along the coast increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Supply is increasing, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded. The current market is mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has eased, and the stable oil price provides support. Terminal demand recovery may support the price rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures are consolidating. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased last week. The market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the future depends on consumption and policy changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated more after the Fed's rate - cut decision. Gold has long - term upward drivers but may face short - term adjustments [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.84% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is high. Downstream demand is mixed, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.76% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and smelting output is expected to rise. Short - term supply may exceed demand, and zinc prices may be weakly volatile [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is increasing, while demand shows a mixed trend. The inventory is decreasing. Futures prices may be highly volatile, and the price is under pressure from the expected resumption of production [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend at night. The short - term market is under pressure but also supported by policy expectations [23]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The steel market has a small supply - demand contradiction. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is facing challenges, and the market is in a short - term adjustment phase [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With the improvement of Sino - U.S. trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats were weakly volatile at night. The MPOB report had a negative impact on palm oil, but the impact has been mostly digested. The market is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventory but is also under pressure from imported sugar and new - season beet sugar. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend and be weak [29]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. The domestic cotton market is entering the new - flower acquisition period, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [30]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak. During the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies' cargo - booking pressure increased, and price cuts intensified. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and attention should be paid to the follow - up price - cut rhythm of shipping companies [31].

(二)仪器集成：设备兼容性差与数据采集误差 金属检测所涉及的仪器种类繁多，包含光谱仪(ICP - OES、XRF)、万能试验机、金相显微镜、硬度计等 等。不同品牌、型号的设备，其通信协议存在很大差异，如 RS232、OPC UA、LIS 等，这无疑给 LIMS 与仪器的对接增添了极大难度。某稀有金属冶炼厂统计表明，在未解决仪器集成问题时，仅有 35% 的设备能够实现数据自动采集，其余设备都依赖人工抄录，这样不仅效率低下，数据误差率更是 高达 2.8%。此外，部分老旧设备没有数字接口，如同 "信息孤岛" 一般，严重阻碍了数据的采集工作。 在金属行业迈向数字化转型的进程中，实验室信息管理系统(LIMS)宛如一座桥梁，紧密连接着生产、 质检以及决策环节。金属检测所产生的数据，涵盖成分分析、力学性能、耐腐蚀度等关键指标，这些数 据不仅直接关乎产品质量的判定，更是生产工艺优化、履行客户质量承诺以及保护商业机密的重要依 据。不过，金属行业实验室有着样品批次量大、检测项目繁杂、仪器类型多样的显著特点，这使得 LIMS 在实际应用过程中遭遇诸多棘手挑战。接下来，我们将系统梳理这些常见问题，提供切实可行的 解决对策，并结合 2 ...

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵 | 增减 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 150950 | - -1,675 J -1.10% | | 品 | 483775 - | -1,500 J -0.31% | | 锌 | 48975 | - -1.175 J -2.34% | | 寝 | 226434 | 1 +1,950 1 +0.87% | | 铝 | 227850 | 1 +2,225 1 +0.99% | | 锡 | 2645 | 0 - 0.00% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 金屋 | 库 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 注销占比 上日占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 150950 | 135150 | -0.22% | 15800 | -8.01% | 10.47% | 11.25% | | 篇 | 483775 | 375025 | · 0.00% | 108750 | - - - 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. - In the bond market, with weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term outlook is for a volatile recovery, considering the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - The current macro background is favorable for precious metals, especially silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or volatile - strong trend. For example, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as Fed policy expectations, industry fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships [8][9][11]. - In the black building materials sector, although the short - term prices may have a callback risk due to weak real - time demand, in the future, with overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of domestic policy space, the sector may gradually have multi - allocation value [31]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation, while methanol and urea have different strategies based on their supply - demand and inventory situations [42][43]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these situations [55][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **News**: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published, NVIDIA is under investigation, black - series futures rose, a press conference on service consumption policies is upcoming, and Tesla's stock price reached a new high [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided. After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. Economic data in August showed a slowdown, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold slightly declined and COMEX silver rose. Trump's remarks and the expected Fed policy have increased the market's expectation of a dovish Fed stance. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's expected policy, copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract being 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, but aluminum prices rose. Downstream consumption is in the peak season, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong [9]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a short - term strong trend. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the import window closed. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [10][11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices broke through the shock range. Lead concentrate is in short supply, and downstream demand is improving. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [12][13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated. Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the medium - and long - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Demand expectations are optimistic, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose. The supply - side has an over - capacity situation, but the Fed's expected policy may drive the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Raw material prices recovered, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [18][19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices were at a high level. Downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and prices are expected to remain high [20]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the AD2511 contract is 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The overall commodity market atmosphere improved, but steel prices showed a weak trend. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - rolled coil demand is relatively strong [22][23]. - **Outlook**: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline further [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and demand was supported in the short - term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Industry supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Industry supply decreased slightly, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. They are expected to follow the black sector, but their independent strong trends are difficult to form [29][30]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The short - term valuation is neutral, and it is necessary to pay attention to industry policies [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices fluctuated. Supply was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. The short - term market is affected by policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices rebounded. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish, while the short - term outlook is neutral [38][39]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade quickly [41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical premiums have disappeared, but OPEC's actions are seen as a market pressure test. It is recommended for multi - allocation [42]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Port inventory is high, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider 1 - 5 positive spreads [43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [44]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices fell, and futures prices rose. BZN spreads are expected to repair, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [45][46]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is affected by unexpected maintenance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. p - Xylene - **Market**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply is high, and demand from downstream PTA is affected by maintenance. It is recommended to wait and see [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose. Cost support exists, and demand is expected to improve. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose. Supply pressure is high, and demand is recovering seasonally. The short - term trend is not clear [53]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is general. It is recommended to pay attention to potential rebound opportunities and short - sell after rebounds [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable with some increases. Supply is stable, and demand is normal. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the distant month after a decline [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. It is recommended to trade within a range [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips after a decline [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic and foreign markets are bearish, and the overall outlook is bearish [62][63]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and short - term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [64][65].

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals show a decline in copper and zinc, while aluminum remains stable, and tin has seen a slight increase [1][2][4] - Copper inventory decreased by 1,325 tons, representing a 0.86% drop, with a total of 152,625 tons in stock [1][4] - Zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, a 0.74% decline, bringing the total to 50,150 tons [1][9] Group 2 - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no new entries or exits reported [1][5] - Tin inventory increased by 25 tons, a 0.95% rise, resulting in a total of 2,645 tons [1][11] - The registered warehouse receipts for copper decreased by 17.13%, while the cancellation rate for zinc was reported at 34.50% [2][9]