1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend forecasts and analysis of influencing factors for each commodity [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: Drops from the trading range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: The situation reverses and rebounds, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. - **Palladium**: Rebounds upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Risk sentiment improves, and prices rise. The trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Runs strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventories decline, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Supply pressure persists. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. The trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is 1 [2][21]. - **Nickel**: Inventory accumulation slows down marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of the pyrometallurgical cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between demand and cost. The trend strength is 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The document does not directly cover crude oil, but it mentions the impact of geopolitical factors on energy prices [68][69]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Urea**: Oscillates in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Benzene**: Oscillates strongly. The trend strength is 0 [2][110]. - **PTA**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is -1 [2][68]. - **Rubber**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][76]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Widely oscillates within the day. The trend strength is 0 [2][79]. - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and the structure is differentiated. The trend strength is 1 [2][83]. - **PP**: The supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April. The trend strength is 1 [2][84]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation is at a low level. The trend strength is 1 [2][89]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][93]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is 0 [2][98]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The trend strength is 0 [2][116]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks remain, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The trend strength is 1 [2][121]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supportive, and the trend remains strong. The trend strength is 1 [2][122]. - **PVC**: Widely oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][130]. - **Fuel Oil**: Drops at the night session and remains high in the short - term. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounds overseas. The trend strength is 0 [2][133]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Stimulated by B50 news, it shows a short - term strong performance. The trend strength is 1 [2][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sown area is lower than expected, boosting the sentiment of the soybean sector. The trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA area report is bullish, and the market may rebound. The trend strength is 1 [2][170]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the market rebounds and oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][170]. - **Corn**: Oscillates. The trend strength is 0 [2][173]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates within a range. The trend strength is 0 [2][177]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new domestic crop planting. The trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts. The trend strength is 0 [2][185]. - **Hogs**: The L - bottom expectation is recognized, and the central price continues to decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][188]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills. The trend strength is 0 [2][192]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The resumption of hot metal production is slow, and ore prices are under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][52]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market trading sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Manganese Silicide**: The expected demand from the ore end tightens, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillates weakly. The trend strength is -1 [2][60]. - **Log**: The demand improves, and the price oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][64]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The trend strength is 0 [2][135]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillates at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [2][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The trend strength is 0 [2][151].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core View of the Report - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The report mentions the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures, but no specific price analysis data is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of March 31, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions the rebar basis (active contract), but no specific analysis data is provided [16][17] Important Market Information - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its first - quarter meeting on March 26, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions [18] Supply - side Situation - The report mentions the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and rebar production, but no specific analysis data is provided [19][23] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the current value of the Lange Iron and Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 53.4, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% [28] Fundamental Analysis - In March 2026, the PMI of the steel industry was 50.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months. It is expected that in April, the steel industry will maintain a stable and positive operation, with market demand recovering and steel mill production increasing steadily. Raw material and steel prices still have room to rise [35] - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron output was 13,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel output was 16,034 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; steel output was 22,119 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6][36] - In February 2026, China exported 783,800 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with an export average price of 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel exports were 1,559,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, with an export average price of 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36,900 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, with an import average price of 1,740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, China's cumulative steel imports were 82,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, with an import average price of 1,769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [36] - In February 2026, global crude steel output was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%; from January to February 2026, global crude steel output was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [6][36] - In mid - March, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 17.91 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, a growth of 0.6%; a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, a growth of 5.9% [6][37] 后市展望 - In March, due to the geopolitical conflict driving up oil prices and strengthening inflation expectations, there was a positive impact on black commodities, and market sentiment improved. Demand entered the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season and has been increasing for five consecutive weeks. However, due to weak real - estate demand, the overall release rhythm is still weak. On the cost side, rising raw material prices provide strong cost support for steel prices. In general, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In April, steel prices lack a basis for a strong rebound and may generally fluctuate, with the price center rising due to cost support and a possible slight increase [6][38] Operation Strategy - Single - side: Short - term long positions on dips within the range - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [7][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President has signaled a cease - fire, and there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to ending the war through negotiation. Crude oil prices have fallen, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased significantly. Domestically, China's PMI improved significantly in March, the economy exceeded expectations, exports were much better than expected, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The short - term domestic economic situation is better than expected, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term; government bonds will be in a short - term shock; in the commodity sector, black metals may weaken in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, energy and chemical products may be strong in the short term, and precious metals may rebound in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's cease - fire signal and Iran's potential for negotiation led to a drop in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, and a significant increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy and inflation in March were better than expected. The government work report set 2026 development targets and policies. The short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. [2][3] - Asset operation suggestions: short - term cautious observation for stock indices and government bonds; short - term cautious observation for black metals; short - term cautious observation for non - ferrous metals; short - term cautious long for energy and chemical products; short - term cautious long for precious metals. [2] Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and energy metals, the domestic stock market declined. However, the economic fundamentals in March were better than expected, and the short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. With the hope of an end to the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold and silver rebounded. Precious metals are in a state of significant short - term shock and short - term rebound. Short - term cautious long is recommended. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined on Tuesday, and the market volume was low. The steel market follows energy prices, and the decline in coking coal prices has led to further weakness. The real - world demand has improved slightly, but the apparent consumption of the five major steel products still shows a downward trend year - on - year. The steel production of the five major varieties decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron production increased slightly. There is a risk of a phased correction in April. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Tuesday. The previous price increase was supported by energy prices and price negotiation news. The demand for iron ore remains resilient as molten iron production has increased, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is around 43%. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 6.71 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 2.113 million tons. The problem of supply - demand mismatch is gradually being resolved. The room for further price increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the weakening of energy prices. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Tuesday, while the decline in the futures prices widened. The prices follow energy prices. The cost increase has led to some factory production cuts. The inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese is at a low level, and the overall production cost is supported. The futures prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - shock mindset. [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventories. After the replenishment, the inventory decline rate is expected to slow down. The copper market supply is loose, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts the inventory decline. The current inventory is still at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. [7] - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly. The domestic aluminum supply remains high. [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically the same as last week, at 214,000 tons, and is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in the southern region have rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting production remains at a relatively high level, and overseas smelting production will recover in 2026. The demand is not optimistic. [8][9] - **Lead**: The decline in domestic lead ingot inventory has stopped, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and the demand is in the off - season. The import volume of refined and crude lead has increased significantly. [9] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy is changeable. The core contradiction lies in the mining end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and there are risks in MHP supply. Nickel prices have support at the bottom, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad. [10] - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar has increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand in the semiconductor industry is good, but other industries are not performing well, and the overall demand is not good. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, and the LME inventory has decreased. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell significantly on Tuesday. The decline is mainly due to the rumored news of the opening of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, with both supply and demand booming, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Tuesday. The supply and demand are weak, the production capacity is excessive, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is recommended to operate within an interval, paying attention to the cost support at the bottom. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell on Tuesday. The price has returned to the cost - based pricing, and the inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran and the US have signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict, leading to a narrowing of the risk premium and a decline in oil prices. However, the market is still worried about the impact on the global energy system. The average gasoline price in the US has exceeded $4 per gallon, posing a political risk to the Trump administration. Oil prices will remain at a high - central and high - volatility level in the short term. [14] - **Asphalt**: As oil prices decline, asphalt is likely to follow. There are short - term supply problems, and seasonal demand will increase, driving inventory depletion. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is limited, and the new contract price is expected to rise significantly after April, supporting the market bottom. The absolute price will continue to fluctuate significantly with crude oil. [14] - **PX**: The shortage of naphtha continues, and overseas PX prices remain strong. With the increase in domestic PX plant maintenance plans, the PX price is expected to remain strong, but the upside may be limited by the increase in PTA plant maintenance plans. [15] - **PTA**: In the peak season, terminal orders and开工 are lower than in previous years, and the negative feedback continues. The PTA cost is still supported, but the downstream filament production reduction has increased. The PTA basis has rebounded slightly, and the negative feedback restricts the price increase. PTA is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by export expectations, ethylene glycol prices rose, but after the decline in oil prices, inventory pressure was reflected in the futures price. Overseas supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the price will remain high - volatile. Attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback. [15] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the high - volatility of crude oil prices and negative feedback in the polyester sector, short - fiber prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, following PTA and other varieties. [16][17] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is strong, and the port basis is strengthening. Affected by the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the energy and chemical futures market has declined. However, due to the obstruction of Iranian exports and unstable Middle East plants, the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The domestic demand is warming up in the peak season, and the spot is in short supply. The market is strong, but the volatility has increased significantly. [17] - **PP**: The market price has declined. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is increasing, providing support for the price. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the situation of the cease - fire talks. [18] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory is depleting rapidly. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but there is inventory pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are the key variables for external supply. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Affected by external positive factors, the futures market has strengthened, boosting the spot market sentiment. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still in place, and the industrial demand is supporting the market. The export is tightening, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT July soybean contract closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst's estimate. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans for domestic oil mills in April are balanced, and the inventory is loose. The basis is under seasonal pressure. The far - month oil mill crushing profit supports more purchases of soybeans, and the future supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, as the import of rapeseed increases in the far - month, the supply concern fades, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal widens. It will follow the soybean meal's shock adjustment. [20] - **Oils**: The overnight BMD palm oil closed higher. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran cease - fire intention has put pressure on the vegetable oil premium. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is stable, and the demand is weak. Palm oil exports from Malaysia are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Palm oil will maintain a high - level shock. [21] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, but the market atmosphere is not high. Traders are more willing to sell, and the inventory of downstream deep - processing enterprises is accumulating. The feed enterprises are using more imported and policy - auctioned grains, and the acceptance of high - price corn is decreasing. The unconfirmed news of brown rice auction in early April may limit the corn price. [21] - **Pigs**: The average weight of pigs is increasing, and small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, while large - scale farms are increasing the supply with a slight weight reduction. The short - term breeding profit is in a loss, and the policy is guiding weight reduction and production reduction. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - month contract, while the long - term contract has stronger support. [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the black futures market declined overall. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with low - price rigid demand purchases as the main form, and there was price - holding behavior in the spot market. - Last week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly. Among them, rebar production decreased while hot - rolled coil production continued to increase. It is expected that the molten iron output will continue to rise this week. - Steel apparent demand is still recovering, but the recovery progress has slowed down. Rebar performs better than hot - rolled coil. Rebar inventory is decreasing rapidly, while the inventory reduction speed of hot - rolled coil has slowed down. - Recently, the capital and resumption of work of downstream construction sites have continued to improve. Plate exports have declined due to the impact of the Middle East region. The overall inventory level of hot - rolled coil is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, billet exports have continued to improve, and the order - receiving situation is generally good. Steel exports have returned to profitability. - Affected by overseas raw material sentiment, the black sector rose earlier, but the sentiment has declined recently, driving the sector down. The subsequent performance of downstream demand and overseas geopolitical frictions still need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Relevant Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is priced at 3,190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,170 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3,290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3,230 yuan (-) [4]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It will still maintain a volatile trend following overseas sentiment and the raw material end. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to go long on the HC05 - 10 spread at low prices. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Important Information** - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.3472 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 77.1% and a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level [7]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [10][14][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved significant profit growth in 2025, with total profits, net profits, and net profits attributable to shareholders increasing by 16.37%, 20.97%, and 28.49% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The company's financial health remains robust, with a year-end debt-to-asset ratio of 53.46%, down 2.55 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] - The company is focusing on high-end product transformation, with the sales proportion of key steel products reaching 68.5%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 121.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.94% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.61 billion yuan, an increase of 28.49% [1][4] - The company's operating cash flow net amount was 6.57 billion yuan, up 13.78% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margins for major steel products improved, with long products, plates, and pipes achieving gross margins of 4.66%, 14.09%, and 9.35%, respectively, reflecting increases from the previous year [4] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a quarterly revenue of 26.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101 million yuan, down 86.76% quarter-on-quarter [2] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.6 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.1 billion yuan, which represents 50.01% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 [7] - The company has also initiated a share buyback amounting to 209 million yuan, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to benefit from increased production scale and high-end product profitability, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 estimated at 3.73 billion, 4.30 billion, and 4.97 billion yuan, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved significant profit growth in 2025, with total profit, net profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 16.37%, 20.97%, and 28.49% respectively, despite a 15.94% decline in revenue [4] - The company is undergoing a transformation towards high-end products, with the sales proportion of key steel varieties reaching 68.5%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from 2024 [4] - The company has maintained a healthy financial status, with a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio to 53.46%, down 2.55 percentage points from the end of 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company reported total revenue of 121.14 billion, a decrease of 15.94% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.61 billion, an increase of 28.49% [4][6] - The gross profit margin for major steel products improved, with long products, plates, and pipes showing margins of 4.66%, 14.09%, and 9.35% respectively, reflecting increases from the previous year [4] - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 13.78% year-on-year, reaching 6.57 billion [4] Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q4 2025, the company experienced a significant decline in net profit to 0.10 billion, down 86.76% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to one-time expenses and market fluctuations [2][4] - The decline in Q4 was attributed to a 3.65 billion expense related to environmental tax penalties and a challenging market environment affecting steel prices [4] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.6 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.10 billion, which represents 50.01% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7] - The company has also initiated a share buyback program amounting to 0.21 billion, further enhancing shareholder value [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to benefit from increased production scale and enhanced profitability from high-end product offerings, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 estimated at 3.73 billion, 4.30 billion, and 4.97 billion respectively [7][6] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the company is projected to be 9.30, 8.08, and 6.99 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for hot - rolled coils is "oscillating weakly", and the short - term view is "oscillating strongly", with a mid - term need to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and steel mill resumption of production [1][7] Core View - Hot - rolled coil presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand and continuous inventory reduction. In the short term, it is mainly oscillating strongly. In the mid - term, if demand continues to pick up and production is controlled, it is expected to start a trend rebound; if demand is weak and resumption of production accelerates, the price will maintain an oscillating pattern [7] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 49,639 lots on Tuesday, with a trading volume of 223,929 lots, slightly increasing volume compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke below the 5 - day moving average around 3315 and was running above the 30 - day moving average at 3275 and the 60 - day moving average at 3290 in the medium term [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 20 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 3.0561 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 tons. The output slightly rebounded, and steel mills' willingness to resume production increased marginally. If the price of hot - rolled coils continues to rebound and steel mills' profits are further repaired, the output may continue to rise; if demand falls short of expectations, steel mills are likely to tighten production again [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 3.1363 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons. The demand recovered month - on - month, but the increase was weaker than the output, indicating that the demand repair was still insufficient. If the production and sales data of industries such as automobiles and home appliances are good, the apparent demand is expected to further rise; if overseas demand is weak and domestic manufacturing starts are lower than expected, demand repair will be hindered [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 3.6942 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons. The social inventory continued to be destocked, and the destocking pace of traders accelerated. The steel mill inventory was 838,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons month - on - month. The total inventory was 4.5327 million tons, a decrease of 80,200 tons month - on - month, and the overall inventory pressure was marginally relieved [4] - Policy side: The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, which boosted the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and it takes time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The total inventory is continuously destocked, the destocking pace of social inventory is accelerating, the apparent demand is recovering month - on - month, and the hot - rolled coil price has bottom support; the manufacturing demand has stronger toughness than construction steel and has long - term fundamental support [6] - Bearish factors: The output has slightly rebounded, and the supply side has expanded marginally; the demand repair amplitude is weaker than the output, and the supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of rebar; the total inventory is still at a high level, which restricts the price rebound height [6] Short - term View Summary - The main hot - rolled coil contract was weakly oscillating on Tuesday. It has completed the main contract change. The support below the October contract is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. In the short term, hot - rolled coils are mainly oscillating strongly. In the medium term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of manufacturing demand and steel mill resumption of production [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.48%. During the roll - over period, both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply is shrinking, while demand is seasonally improving, leading to marginal improvement in the fundamental situation. Coupled with cost support, steel prices have returned to the upper edge of the volatile range. However, the strength of peak - season demand is in doubt, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.33%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. At present, the fundamental situation of hot - rolled coil has improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. Coupled with cost support, the price has returned to the upper edge of the range. However, demand concerns remain, and the high - inventory situation limits the upward driving force. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.80%. During the roll - over period, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, supply disruptions support the high - level operation of iron ore prices, but the room for demand growth is limited, and there is no substantial improvement in the iron ore fundamental situation. The over - valued iron ore price continues to face pressure. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Recently, three Chinese vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and China called for a cease - fire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region [7]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level [8]. - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully resumed. The company expects to make up for half of the approximately 8 million tons of iron ore shipment volume affected by cyclones, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipment guidance remains at 323 - 338 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,200 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,333 yuan, down 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price is 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price is 3,328 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet remains unchanged at 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remains unchanged at 2,180 yuan. The volume - screw price difference is 90 yuan, and the screw - scrap price difference is 1,010 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports is 775 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 772 yuan, unchanged. The Australian freight is 10.93 yuan, up 0.17 yuan; the Brazilian freight is 30.56 yuan, down 0.10 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 106.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 108.50 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,121 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume is 477,403 lots, a decrease of 139,352 lots, and the open interest is 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,294 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume is 310,343 lots, an increase of 27,129 lots, and the open interest is 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 808.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.80%. The trading volume is 158,111 lots, an increase of 15,153 lots, and the open interest is 353,624 lots, a decrease of 17,797 lots [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory changes and total inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production conditions (including 247 - sample - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 - independent - electric - furnace - steel - mill operating rate, and profit situation) [14][22][30] 3.5后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the weekly output has decreased by 5.460,000 tons. Demand is seasonally improving, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 17.280,000 tons. However, the strength of future demand improvement is in doubt. The subsequent trend will mainly be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand continue to rise. The weekly output has increased by 5.400,000 tons, and the inventory level is still high. Demand has some resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.120,000 tons. However, there are still concerns about demand. The subsequent trend will maintain a volatile operation, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is rising seasonally. However, the room for future demand growth needs further observation. Supply is running smoothly. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the steel supply and demand fundamentals will continue to be in a game between relatively weak demand and relatively strong cost support. The core trading logic of the market lies in the macro - level, and the steel's own fundamentals lack obvious contradictions, increasing the operation difficulty. In the first half of the second quarter, steel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening pattern, but in the second half, if the conflict eases, market correction risks should be watched out for [3][88][89] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - quarter Steel Market Review - In the first quarter of 2026, steel prices continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The black industry chain showed a flat performance due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal domestic demand and the suppression of steel prices by the increase in absolute inventory levels. The upward and downward price spaces were limited, resulting in a narrow - range oscillating pattern. The forward curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil were relatively flat, and the forward premium of rebar after the Spring Festival was lower than that of last year. The basis of rebar was relatively higher than in previous years, and the supply - side pressure of hot - rolled coil was greater [10] 3.2 Demand Changes are Limited, Focus on the Rhythm of External Demand 3.2.1 Domestic Demand Remains Stable, with Limited Expectations for Incremental Policies - After the Two Sessions in March 2026, it became clear that the domestic economy in 2026 would focus on stability, with limited incremental policy space. The GDP growth target was lowered, and the scale of fiscal policies such as the deficit rate, special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds remained the same as last year. The incremental funds for "two important" and "two new" aspects were also limited. Therefore, the outlook for steel domestic demand is not optimistic [19][20] 3.2.2 Real Estate Demand is Difficult to Improve, Infrastructure Focuses on Rhythm - Since the beginning of 2026, the second - hand housing market in first - tier cities has shown signs of a slight rebound, but the sustainability is to be observed. The improvement in the first - hand housing market is limited, and the year - on - year decline in real estate sales and new construction areas is still significant. For infrastructure investment, the incremental space depends on the participation of social capital. The fiscal policy shows a pre - set trend this year, and infrastructure investment in the spring is expected to support building material demand, but it may show a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [23][24] 3.2.3 The Decline in National Subsidies May Lead to a Decline in Manufacturing Domestic Demand - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars and home appliances have declined due to the reduction of national subsidies. In early 2026, the recovery of national subsidies had limited impact on demand. The production and sales of passenger cars in January - February decreased year - on - year, and the inventory coefficient of car dealers increased. The demand for home appliances has slightly improved, but the improvement space is limited. However, the manufacturing export remains strong, and although the export to the Middle East is affected by the conflict, the long - term external demand is expected to remain strong [33][34] 3.2.4 Steel Exports are Slightly Better than Expected, and Structural Differentiation Intensifies - In early 2026, the direct exports of steel and semi - finished products were slightly better than expected. The implementation of the export license management system affected steel exports, with a year - on - year decrease in steel exports and an increase in billet exports. The export of plates decreased significantly, and the export to most regions declined. In March, the steel exports to the Middle East were affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Although the short - term export is affected, the medium - term trend is not pessimistic [51][60][61] 3.3 Inventory Structural Contradictions Remain, and Cost Support is Strengthened 3.3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts Further Strengthen Cost Support - In the first quarter of 2026, with the slight resumption of hot metal production and the increase in energy prices, the profit of finished products declined again. The cost of the long - process steelmaking has been in a relatively stable and narrow - range oscillating pattern since the fourth quarter of last year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, energy prices are unlikely to return to the pre - conflict low. If the domestic demand does not decline significantly in the second quarter, the upward risk of the cost side is higher than the downward risk [63][64][73] 3.3.2 The Total Inventory Contradiction is Controllable, and Structural Differentiation is Obvious - After the Spring Festival, the structural contradiction of finished product inventory is obvious, but the overall inventory pressure is not prominent. The inventory of five major varieties is slightly higher than that of the same period last year, mainly due to the low inventory of building materials. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil is relatively obvious, and the inventory of non - five major varieties is also at a high level. High inventory mainly suppresses the upward space of steel prices, and the risk of negative feedback in the second quarter may come from the macro - level [74][75] 3.4 Second - quarter Steel Supply and Demand Outlook and Market Trading Logic - In the second quarter, the steel market will be in a game between weak demand and strong cost support. The energy price fluctuations caused by the Middle East situation and the market's expectations for the global economy will be important influencing factors. If a cease - fire agreement is reached in April, the upward space of steel prices will be limited; if not, there will be an obvious upward risk in supply and raw material costs. The core trading logic of the steel market in the second quarter lies in the macro - level, and the operation difficulty increases. In the first half of the second quarter, steel prices may be oscillating and strengthening, while in the second half, if the conflict eases, market correction risks should be watched out for [88][89]