2025 年 06 月 08 日 震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 金融工程定期报告 证券研究报告 本期要点：震荡偏强，科技板块仍具性价比 正如上周所述，当前市场走势比 2024 年 6 月要强一些，结构上可以 考虑在均衡的基础上偏向低吸科技板块，目前来看基本符合预期。 上周市场表现相对较强，上证则是再度形成了向上一笔，有挑战 5 月 高点的迹象。但在有效突破 5 月高点之前，上证也有可能因存在日线 顶背离的压制而出现调整的可能性。因此，我们当下维持市场震荡偏 强的判断，但将密切关注在前高附近市场是否展现出有效突破的迹 象；而如果一旦确认突破失败，那么后续或将迎来真正的调整。 上周四盘后，我们的四轮驱动模型再次发出 TMT 方向的多个看多信 号。从相对于市场的低频温度计角度看，目前 TMT 板块仍处于相对低 位；而从拥挤度的角度看，TMT 板块在 5 月底下探两年来的低点之后， 又有再度小幅上行的迹象。这两个因素或使得至少未来一两周内 TMT 是一个值得认真关注的方向。 具体而言，行业上，除了电子、计算机、传媒等板块外，还可以关注 非银、食品饮料、纺织服饰、通信、机械、军工等板块的机会。 风险提示：根据历史数据构 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting external risks and the need for new momentum for upward movement [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology and consumer sectors, suggesting a defensive allocation in high-dividend stocks due to ongoing overseas risks [2][3] - The report lists a selection of "golden stocks" with detailed financial metrics, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and others, indicating their potential for growth and investment value [3][72] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings is recognized for its strong competitive advantages across multiple business areas, particularly in gaming and advertising, with expectations for EPS growth driven by high-margin business expansion [11][12] - Alibaba is noted for its leadership in AI and cloud computing, with anticipated revenue growth from its cloud services and improved profitability from its core business segments [19][20] - Kuaishou is expected to benefit from its AI capabilities and content consumption trends, with projections for significant revenue growth in the coming years [24][25] - Xiaomi is highlighted for its innovative automotive business and strong performance in the smartphone market, with expectations for continued growth in high-end products [30][31] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is expected to see improved performance due to lower international oil prices and a high dividend payout ratio, making it attractive for income-focused investors [43][44] - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned for growth in the online investment sector, leveraging technology to enhance its product offerings and market share [51][52] - Anta Sports is recognized for its strong brand performance and strategic acquisitions, which are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [56][57] - New Energy is anticipated to benefit from privatization efforts and improved profit structures, with a significant valuation upside [60][61] - Innovent Biologics is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth driven by its expanding product pipeline and effective cost management [66][67]

Group 1: Food and Beverage - The investment suggestion emphasizes structural differentiation and growth potential, with a focus on new consumption and high growth in consumer goods, while the liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, highlighting its value for allocation [2][3] - The liquor industry is experiencing increased differentiation and rationality, with the industry still seeking a bottom in Q2 2025, and the head companies showing resilience during the off-season [2] - Beer is expected to recover as the peak season approaches, while the beverage sector is in a phase of releasing single product potential [3] Group 2: Cosmetics - The investment recommendation suggests increasing holdings in personal care and beauty sectors, focusing on companies benefiting from product innovation and new channel opportunities [6] - The demand for cosmetics remains stable, with domestic brands gaining market share, particularly in skincare and makeup categories [6] - Trends indicate accelerated product innovation and emotional consumption, with a focus on cost-effective products benefiting from supply-demand dynamics [6] Group 3: Education and Consumer Services - The high school education sector is projected to have a stable demand for the next 7-8 years, supported by policy initiatives aimed at expanding education [12] - Emotional and experiential consumption is accelerating, with traditional demands being met by new supply, particularly in the IP toy sector [12] - The tea and coffee sectors are undergoing product, channel, and technological iterations, indicating structural growth opportunities [12] Group 4: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is witnessing a recovery led by major brands, with a focus on price competition and market consolidation [17] - New consumption trends are emerging, with high aesthetic product designs and AI integration driving innovation in the sector [17] - Investment suggestions highlight opportunities in both domestic and international markets for leading brands [17] Group 5: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The agricultural sector maintains a "buy" rating, with slow growth expected in livestock output and a recovery in the animal health feed sector [29] - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth, driven by domestic brands gaining market competitiveness [29] - The planting sector is expected to see rising grain prices due to reduced import volumes, with core seed varieties becoming increasingly important [30] Group 6: Internet and AI - The investment outlook for the internet sector remains positive, particularly for technology stocks, with a focus on AI-driven growth [34] - The AI narrative is expected to enhance the value of social networks, with a strong emphasis on user engagement and ecosystem development [59] - The evolution of AI capabilities is anticipated to create new demand and enhance the social network's value proposition [59] Group 7: Non-Banking Financials - The non-banking financial sector is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on wealth management and asset management business models [73] - The recommendation is to favor leading comprehensive brokerages that demonstrate balanced business structures and strong professional capabilities [73] - The insurance sector is expected to see stable growth in new business value, with an emphasis on improving asset allocation [76] Group 8: Banking - The banking sector is projected to face revenue pressure but maintain positive net profit growth, with a stable policy environment supporting sustainable operations [79] - The expectation of increased long-term capital inflow into the banking sector is driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [80] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on high-growth regional banks and those showing signs of loan recovery [81]

Core Viewpoints - The article summarizes the insights from fund managers based on their Q1 2025 reports, focusing on their investment strategies and market outlooks [1]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers typically cover two main areas in their reports: a review of past investments and future market outlooks, with the latter being more significant [3]. - Different fund managers exhibit varying levels of detail in their reports, influenced by their investment styles, such as value or growth [3]. - The deep value style emphasizes low valuations and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [4][5]. - Growth value style focuses on companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term [10]. Group 2: Deep Value Style Insights - Deep value style has shown strong performance from 2021 to 2024, while it underperformed in 2019-2020 [6]. - Fund managers express confidence in their holdings despite market uncertainties, citing factors like geopolitical changes and technological advancements as influential [7]. - The current market environment is characterized by structural changes, with some sectors facing prolonged competition, while others show clear competitive advantages [7]. Group 3: Growth Value Style Insights - Growth value managers highlight the resilience of high-frequency economic data and improved financing conditions, suggesting a positive outlook for the second quarter [12]. - They emphasize the importance of focusing on domestic economic transformation and internal demand rather than external pressures [12][13]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios to capitalize on sectors like AI and healthcare, anticipating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [15][16]. Group 4: Balanced Style Insights - The balanced style seeks to combine growth potential with valuation, often looking for stocks that offer good value relative to their growth prospects [26]. - Fund managers maintain a diversified approach, focusing on sectors with favorable valuations and growth potential, such as healthcare and technology [29][30]. - They express optimism about domestic consumption policies and liquidity, which may support market performance despite external uncertainties [30]. Group 5: Growth Style Insights - The growth style prioritizes companies with high revenue and profit growth, often accepting higher valuations for strong growth potential [39][40]. - Fund managers are actively seeking opportunities in emerging industries, such as renewable energy and technology, which are expected to drive future growth [41].

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 5 月投资观点及金股推荐 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 5 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 13 %% %% %% %% ...