Financial Performance - Year-to-date adjusted diluted EPS increased by 10% from $3.22 in FY24 to $3.55 in FY25[13] - Year-to-date FY25 GAAP diluted EPS is $3.16, compared to $2.52 in year-to-date FY24[14] - Year-to-date FY25 free cash flow is $558 million[14], an 11% increase compared to year-to-date FY24[15] - Available liquidity as of June 30, 2025, is $1.9 billion[14] - The company expects to achieve the top end of its FY25 adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.00 to $3.15 per share[15] Segment Results (Q3 FY25) - Utilities EBIT decreased from $39 million in Q3 FY24 to $30 million in Q3 FY25[22] - Midstream & Marketing EBIT decreased from $43 million in Q3 FY24 to $27 million in Q3 FY25[24] - UGI International EBIT increased from -$19 million in Q3 FY24 to $43 million in Q3 FY25[28] - AmeriGas Propane EBIT decreased from $9 million in Q3 FY24 to -$28 million in Q3 FY25[28, 32] Strategic Initiatives - The company is generating approximately $150 million of cash through LPG asset sales in Hawaii, Italy, and a small cylinder business in the UK[16] - Year-to-date capital expenditure is $605 million, with over 80% allocated to the natural gas businesses[16] - Utilities added approximately 9,000 residential heating and commercial customers year-to-date FY25[16] - AmeriGas is substantially exiting the wholesale business, which represented approximately 11% of total LPG gallons sold and was essentially a breakeven business in FY24[16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Core View - Propane dehydrogenation unit operating rate increased to 73.13% (weekly increase of 1.35%), and the support for chemical demand marginally strengthened [2] - Saudi CP prices were lowered (propane at $575/ton, butane at $545/ton), reducing the import cost at the port of arrival and partially alleviating domestic price pressure [2] - Domestic refinery operating rate was at a high level, with the commercial volume maintained above 520,000 tons and port inventory exceeding 3 million tons [2] - Consumption was sluggish during the off - season, and the sales - to - production ratios in East China and South China dropped to 99% and 93% respectively (weekly decrease of 1% - 7%) [2] - Despite the marginal improvement in chemical demand, supply pressure and the off - season for combustion dominated the market. Coupled with high port inventory, the price rebound space was limited [3] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the daily settlement price of propane's Far - East Inbound Price FEI: M1, the seasonal comparison between FEI and Brent, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/MOPJ spread seasonality, propane's US FOB price, MB and WTI ratio seasonality, VLGC freight, US propane weekly production, import volume, inventory, and export volume [4][5][7]

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Import costs are decreasing, and prices are weakly oscillating. Domestic civil gas supply and demand are both weak, and the overall price is fluctuating weakly. Ether C4 prices are oscillating, and the overall chemical industry's start - up is expected to have limited short - term boost. [3] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are under pressure and weak. Although the supply - demand gap may narrow further, it is difficult to drive price increases. The supply - demand pressure may ease from late August to September, and prices may turn around. [4] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices in various regions have decreased. For example, from July 25 to August 1, Shandong civil gas decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and South China imported gas decreased by 120 yuan/ton. [8][15] - CP prices were released lower, and FEI discounts narrowed and then decreased again. [16] Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly, while shipments to China decreased significantly. [26] - Middle East LPG shipments decreased significantly, and shipments to China, India, and Southeast Asia all decreased. [34][40] - China's LPG total commodity volume was 52.7 million tons (+0.3%), with civil gas at 21.0 million tons (-0.0%). Propane imports increased by 22.5 million tons. [50][59] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH decreased slightly, and MTBE's operating rate decreased for the first time after 8 consecutive weeks of increase. [65] - LPG refinery inventories: Some regions decreased, such as East China's civil gas refinery inventory decreased from 18.43 million tons to 18.08 million tons. [68] - LPG terminal import inventories: East China and Fujian reduced inventories, while other regions' terminals increased inventories. [78] Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent rose by 1.13 dollars/bbl, and WTI rose by 2.19 dollars/bbl week - on - week. [89] - Propylene prices: Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 35, 125, and 100 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week. [89] - Downstream prices/profits: Some products' prices and profits changed, such as PP powder profit in East China increased by 105 yuan/ton. [91] Balance Sheet - **National Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene production was 529 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%. [105] - **National Balance Sheet - Demand**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand was 526 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.0%. [108] - **Shandong Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, Shandong's total propylene production was 90 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 64.0%. [112]

Core View - Supply contraction and import cost inversion support prices, but weak demand in the off - season and a weakening international market exert downward pressure. LPG futures will maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and the sustainability of PDH operations [3][4] Fundamental Information Supply - The commodity volume of domestic sample enterprises decreased by 0.53% week - on - week to 524,900 tons, port inventories decreased by 5.17% week - on - week to 3.04 million tons, and the import arrival volume decreased by 6.95% week - on - week, leading to a marginal easing of supply pressure [3] Cost - In the first half of the year, the import arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic imported gas price was consistently lower than the import cost line, providing bottom support for the spot market. In July, the Saudi CP propane price was $575 per ton, and the loose supply - demand situation of crude oil suppressed cost - side expectations [3] Demand - The combustion end is in the off - season with weak terminal consumption. The PDH operating rate has rebounded to 75%, but the demand for MTBE and alkylation is differentiated, and the production - sales ratio is only barely balanced [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report LPG Part - This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. Supply slightly contracted, but seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined. Overall, prices fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, and the domestic basis strengthened due to the decline in PG futures. The price of etherified C4 oscillated downward and stabilized at the end of the week. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production start - up is likely to receive some short - term support [3][4]. Propylene Part - This week, the domestic propylene market price first declined and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, multiple restarted PDH units led to a significant increase in propylene supply, causing prices to decline. Later in the week, the restart of downstream parking units increased propylene demand, and prices stabilized [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG futures and paper prices showed certain fluctuations. For domestic spot and basis, civil gas prices in different regions had varying degrees of change, and the basis also changed. Regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates also had corresponding adjustments. Propane prices decreased compared to the previous period [8][10][18]. Supply - In domestic production, the total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 million tons, a slight reduction. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.2 million tons (-5.1%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.1 million tons (+0.7%). In terms of imports, the international vessel arrivals this week were 52.5 million tons (-16.4%). The production and imports of propane in China both decreased [4][38][45]. Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, civil combustion demand remained seasonally weak due to high temperatures. The PDH operating rate increased significantly this week, and it is expected to rise further next week. The MTBE operating rate continued to increase to 67.6%, up 0.8% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, domestic refinery inventories of LPG and civil gas slightly increased, and LPG terminal import inventories in East China, South China, and Shandong all increased [4][48][52]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, upstream prices such as NAP, methanol, and propane showed different degrees of decline. Propylene prices in different regions also changed, with prices in Shandong, East China, and South China falling by 85, 15, and 100 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Downstream product prices and profits also had corresponding fluctuations [77][79][90]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain, such as domestic majors, Shandong local refineries, and PDH, changed. The national and Shandong propylene balance sheets showed the supply and demand situation in different months, including production, demand, and balance quantities [98][100][109]. Supply - This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased due to the gradual return of previously shut - down PDH units. The weekly propylene output was 1.166 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period, and the industry's overall capacity utilization rate increased by 1.9% to 73.1% [5]. Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of propylene downstream industries increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as butanol, acrylic acid, and PO all increased, mainly due to the gradual return of multiple shut - down units [5]. Downstream Inventory No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]