1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 活的关 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2601收盘价 | 6439 | 6516 | -77 | -1.18% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6479 | 6543 | -64 | -0.98% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6196 | 6192 | 4 | 0.06% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6254 | 6256 | -2 | -0.03% | | | L15价差 | -40 | -27 | -13 | -48.15% | | | PP15价差 | -58 | -64 | 6 | 9.38% | | | LP01价差 | 243 | 324 | -81 | -25.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6120 | 6110 | 10 | 0.16% | | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月14日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 2 本周LPG观点：短期低位震荡，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.3万吨，较上周环比增加1.1%；其中，民用气商品量21.9万吨（+3.0%），醚后商品量17.1万吨（-1.2%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价呈下跌趋势；国际市场供应方面， 美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担 忧未来前景。隆众口径中国国际船期到港量60.6万吨，以山东为主；下周计划到船量仍然较多且个别港口较集中， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Crude Oil - Wednesday saw a rebound in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the Fed's interest - rate cut. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Short - term Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel. Keep an eye on the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations [1]. Natural Rubber - Overseas supply increase expectations are rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the market may have speculative sentiment. Demand from the tire industry is gradually recovering, but overall capacity utilization improvement is limited. Market inventory is being digested. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,500 [4]. Urea - Urea futures fluctuated and closed higher. Shandong Ruixing's production reduction boosted the spot price in the central region. Downstream demand and export orders reduced the inventory pressure. However, the overall supply - demand outlook is weak, and the price rebound space is limited. Short - term urea is expected to continue to fluctuate between 1630 - 1700 [6]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillated at a low level. The inland supply increased, but profits were weak. The traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. Port imports are expected to decline significantly, and the port de - stocking expectation is strengthened, but the current overseas shipments are still high. Continue to pay attention to MTO05 [7]. Polyolefins - The fundamentals of polyolefins show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene's supply - side maintenance is high, but there is an expectation of an increase. Polyethylene's supply is increasing, and the upstream inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply is high, demand is shrinking, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern. The overall situation is bearish, and short positions can be held. Glass prices were affected by real - estate news, and the current short - term demand has support, but the medium - and long - term outlook is not optimistic [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's supply and demand are under pressure, and prices are expected to continue to weaken. PVC's supply pressure remains high, demand is weak, and the overall situation is in an oversupply pattern, with prices expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 in the short term. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and TA5 - 9 can be long - short hedged at a low level. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended. Short - fiber prices are expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG No specific view on the trend of LPG is provided in the report, only price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented [19]. Benzene - Styrene - Benzene's short - term supply - demand is weak, and BZ2603 may follow the oil price and styrene fluctuations. Styrene's supply - demand is in a tight balance, but the upside space is limited, and EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On December 10, Brent rose 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel, WTI rose 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel, and SC fell 1.11% to 444.30 yuan per barrel. Some spreads also changed [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB fell 0.46%, NYM ULSD rose 0.57%, and ICE Gasoil rose 0.16%. Some spreads of refined oil also changed [1]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of some refined oil products changed, such as the US gasoline cracking spread fell 3.28% [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rose 1.02%, and the whole - latex basis fell 28.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber fell 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference fell 61.68% [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread rose 250.00%, the 1 - 5 spread fell 90.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread rose 50.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while India's production increased. Tire开工率 increased slightly, but domestic tire production and export volume decreased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the outbound rate of dry - rubber bonded warehouses decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of general - trade dry - rubber warehouses increased [4]. Urea - **Futures Price**: The main methanol contract fell 0.63%. Some futures contract spreads and主力持仓 also changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of some upstream raw materials such as anthracite and动力煤 changed slightly [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer remained stable, and the compound fertilizer - urea ratio fell 0.59% [6]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production increased, coal - based urea daily production increased, and gas - based urea daily production decreased. The weekly production remained stable, the plant - inventory decreased, and the order - days decreased [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices fell. The MA15 spread,太仓基差, and MTO05 changed. The spot prices of some regions remained unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存,港口库存, and社会库存 all decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream domestic企业开工率 increased, the MTO装置开工率 increased, and some downstream开工率 changed slightly [7]. Polyolefins - **Futures Price**: L2601 and L2605 prices changed slightly, and PP2601 and PP2605 prices fell. Some spreads and基差 changed [12]. - **Non - Standard Price**: The prices of some non - standard PE and PP products changed [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased, and PE下游加权开工率 decreased slightly. PP装置开工率 decreased slightly, and PP粉料开工率 increased [12]. - **Inventory**: PE企业库存 increased, and PE社会库存 decreased. PP企业库存 decreased, and PP贸易商库存 increased [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of glass in some regions and the prices of glass futures contracts changed. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The prices of soda ash in some regions and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased. The 01基差 increased [14]. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率 increased, the weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The浮法日熔量 decreased, and the光伏日熔量 remained unchanged [14]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate changed [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Price**: The prices of some PVC and caustic soda products changed. Some spreads and基差 changed [15]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The overseas quotations of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits also changed [15]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the PVC industry increased slightly, and the profits of some production processes decreased [15]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products in the chlor - alkali industry changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and PX changed [16]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and the cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX - Related**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [16]. - **PTA - Related**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed. PTA开工率 remained stable, and the processing fee decreased [16]. - **MEG - Related**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed. MEG港口库存 increased, and the综合开工率 decreased slightly [16]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the开工率 of亚洲PX, PTA, and MEG [16]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and some spreads changed. The spot price of South China increased, and the基差 changed [19]. - **External Price**: The prices of FEI and CP swaps increased [19]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比,港口库存, and港口库容比 all decreased [19]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The upstream主营炼开工率 decreased slightly, and the下游PDH开工率 increased [19]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of some upstream products such as Brent crude oil,石脑油, and pure benzene changed. The spreads of pure benzene also changed [21]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene and its futures contracts changed. The spreads and cash flows also changed [21]. - **Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed [21]. - **开工率 Change**: The开工率 of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Monday saw a decline in international crude oil prices due to factors such as the resumption of normal operations in some Iraqi oil fields, the continuous production - increase plan of OPEC+, high - level US crude oil production, and an increase in crude oil inventory. However, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the expected Fed rate cut next week are likely to support prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade between $60 - 65 per barrel [1]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the continuous decline in Thai raw material prices, the expected increase in overseas supply, the weakening of upstream cost support, and the seasonal increase in overseas shipments have led to a continuous build - up of natural rubber inventory, suppressing spot prices. On the demand side, although tire production is gradually recovering, the overall output increase is limited, and the market is mainly focused on inventory digestion. Short - term rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Methanol - Methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. Spot was purchased on - demand, and the basis was firm. Inland supply increased with plant restarts, but coal - and gas - based production profits were weak. Traditional downstream demand increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple plant shutdowns, strengthening the expectation of inventory reduction, but high overseas shipments and a large number of registered warrants kept prices weak. Attention should be paid to MTO05 [6][7]. LLDPE and PP - The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, and supply is on the rise. Although upstream inventory is being depleted, it is still higher than the same period last year, and the profit from naphtha cracking is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion is accelerating, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of PP production processes. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, domestic supply is expected to remain stable, downstream cash flow has improved slightly, but demand support is limited. There will be a large number of imports arriving at ports, and port inventory is expected to continue to build up. The short - term price driver is weak, and it may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. For styrene, although planned and unplanned maintenance is expected to increase, the overall operating rate may rise slightly, and port inventory may continue to decline. However, due to weak cost support and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, the upside space is limited [14]. Urea - Supply pressure is continuously released as the daily production on December 8 reached a recent high. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. Although the inventory depletion rate of enterprises has accelerated, the overall inventory level is still high. The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for price decline, and short - term prices are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, short - term supply is less affected, but there is an expected supply contraction in the medium - term. Demand is relatively strong, and short - term price drivers are limited, but medium - term support is strong. PTA supply is expected to decrease in November - December, and demand is relatively strong, with short - term price support. Ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to high overseas supply and inventory build - up. Short - fiber supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak, with limited price drivers. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak, with processing fees expected to be squeezed [16]. LPG - The data shows price fluctuations in LPG futures and spot markets, as well as changes in inventory and operating rates. Overall, the market is in a state of adjustment, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and international market prices [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash production is at a high level, and it is expected to return to the inventory - build - up pattern this week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Glass prices in some regions are weakening, and although there is still some short - term demand support, the medium - and long - term demand outlook is not optimistic [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda industry supply is abundant, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply pressure remains high, demand is low, and although there is some export advantage, overall supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude fell from $63.75 to $62.49 per barrel (-1.98%), WTI from $60.08 to $58.88 per barrel (-2.00%), and SC rose from 453.40 to 456.40 yuan/ton (0.66%). Various spreads also showed different degrees of change [1]. - **Refined Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all declined, and their spreads also changed [1]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oil products in different regions decreased [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu new - type rubber increased slightly, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased significantly, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased, while production in India increased. Tire production and export decreased, and inventory increased [3]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices showed small fluctuations, and various spreads also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased [6]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates increased slightly, while some downstream operating rates changed [7]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP decreased slightly, and various spreads changed [11]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP operating rates showed different trends, and enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other upstream prices changed, and spreads between products also changed [14]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and spreads showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates in different regions changed [14]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices and spreads changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [16]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: Prices, spreads, inventory, and operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG all changed [16]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LPG changed, and various spreads also changed [17]. - **External Market Prices**: LPG external market prices increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: LPG inventory decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices and spreads changed [19]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: Supply, inventory, and real - estate data showed different trends [19]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices and spreads changed [20]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Supply, demand, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda showed different trends [20].

基本面信息3：PDH装置生产利润持续亏损，若开工率下降5%，可能拖累整体需求；MTBE等化工下游利润亦走弱。 LPG行业周报 2025/12/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月7日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量51.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.9%；其中，民用气商品量21.2万吨（+0.7%），醚后商品量17.3万吨（+2.4%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量处于低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。国际市场供应方面，美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏 紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担忧未来前景；此外，高价抑制买兴，买盘 热情不及上周，丙烷价格震荡整理 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The fundamentals of LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with both cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2]. Methanol - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream demand has a slight increase, and the winter fuel demand provides support. In ports, the reduction of imports due to Iranian gas restrictions strengthens the de - stocking expectation and supports prices [6]. Natural Rubber - The supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The terminal demand improvement is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15000 - 15500 [9]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but the continuous increase in OPEC+ production and the record - high US crude oil production put pressure on the supply - demand pattern. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with Brent crude oil likely to trade between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is good, but the short - term valuation drive is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to tighten in December but be relatively loose in Q1. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in December. - Short - fiber: The short - term price support is strong, but the absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is likely to be compressed. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price is under upward pressure. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, but the upward drive is insufficient [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. - Glass: The short - term spot market is strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure later [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to continue the bottom - range fluctuation [17]. LPG No overall view was provided in the LPG report, but price, inventory, and开工率 data were presented [18]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 had different price changes on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some products also changed, with the price of华东PP拉丝现货 increasing by 0.32% and华北LLDPE现货 increasing by 0.30% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE企业库存 decreasing by 9.80% and PP企业库存 decreasing by 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 2.17%, while PP装置开工率 decreased by 0.18% [2]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices changed slightly on December 1st compared to November 28th. Spot prices of some regions also had minor changes [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 4.19%, while甲醇港口库存 decreased by 7.83% [5]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with the上游 - domestic企业开工率 decreasing by 0.67% and the下游 -外采MTO装置开工率 decreasing by 0.78% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.33%, and the price of泰标混合胶 increased by 0.34% [9]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of some countries in September changed, with Thailand's production decreasing by 5.45%. The domestic tire production and export in October decreased [9]. - **Inventory**: The保税区库存 increased by 2.74% [9]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased on December 1st compared to November 28th [11]. - **Spreads**: Some price spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products also had different changes [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and CFR日本石脑油 changed. Downstream polyester product prices also had various changes, with POY150/48价格 decreasing by 0.1% [14]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads changed, such as PX -原油 increasing by 1.9% [14]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the亚洲PX开工率 decreasing by 1.3% [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, with纯苯华东现货 decreasing by 0.6% and苯乙烯华东现货 decreasing by 0.2% [15]. - **Spreads**: Related spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased by 1.6% [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and开工率 changed, with纯苯江苏港口库存 increasing by 36.6% and苯乙烯开工率 decreasing by 2.4% [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, with the华东报价 of glass increasing by 0.84% and the纯碱2605 increasing by 0.68% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 and production of soda ash decreased, and the浮法日熔量 and光伏日熔量 also decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased, with the玻璃厂库 decreasing by 1.49% and the纯碱厂库 decreasing by 3.47% [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, with山东32%液碱折自价 decreasing by 2.7% [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries changed, with the烧碱行业开工率 decreasing by 0.7% [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PVC and caustic soda changed, with the液碱华东厂库库存 increasing by 6.0% [17]. LPG - **Prices**: LPG futures and spot prices changed, with the主力 PG2601 decreasing by 1.59% and the华南现货(民用气) increasing by 1.81% [18]. - **Inventory**: LPG inventories decreased, with theLPG炼厂库容比 decreasing by 7.70% [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of upstream and downstream industries changed, with the上游 -主营炼厂开工率 decreasing by 1.26% [18].