Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong performance early in the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3400 points and reaching a new high for the year, followed by a slight adjustment later in the week [1] - Weekly trading volume increased significantly to 7.43 trillion yuan, the highest in two and a half months [1] - Margin trading saw a net buy of over 25.6 billion yuan, the largest weekly net purchase in four months [1] Sector Performance - The computer and non-bank financial sectors attracted over 4 billion yuan in net buying, while the electronics sector saw over 3.5 billion yuan and the power equipment sector over 2.6 billion yuan in net buying [1] - The real estate and construction decoration sectors experienced net selling of over 200 million yuan, with textiles, coal, and oil and petrochemicals also facing slight net selling [1] Capital Inflows - The computer sector received over 48.1 billion yuan in net inflows from major funds, with electronics, non-bank financials, and power equipment sectors each attracting over 30 billion yuan [1] - The defense and military industry saw net inflows exceeding 25.1 billion yuan, while communication, machinery, automotive, and basic chemicals also received over 10 billion yuan each [1] - Banking, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities sectors experienced net outflows exceeding 2 billion yuan, with food and beverage and beauty care sectors also seeing slight outflows [1] Military and Metal Sectors - The military sector strengthened significantly following the approval of a restructuring plan, with the ground equipment index rising 20.81% and reaching an 8-year high [2] - Leading stocks in the military sector, such as Changcheng Military Industry, saw a cumulative increase of over 91% in the past eight trading days [2] - Metal sector stocks also performed well, with industrial metals, rare metals, and rare resources indices all achieving new highs [2] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 6.24%, while copper, zinc, and other main contracts also saw five consecutive days of price increases [2] Future Outlook - Domestic policy is expected to gradually improve terminal demand, with metal demand elasticity set to increase [3] - Supply constraints for metals like copper and aluminum are anticipated to continue, leading to a tightening supply-demand situation [3] - Market sentiment indicators suggest potential for further index increases, but caution is advised regarding the brokerage sector's role in market movements [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.7% to 3424 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.34% and 0.47% respectively [1][2] - Total trading volume for the day was 1.58 trillion yuan, a decrease of 475 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3400 stocks rising [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index gained 5.69% [1] Sector Performance - The industrial metals sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Electric Alloy and North Copper hitting the daily limit [4] - CPO concept stocks surged, with companies such as Lian Te Technology and Huada Technology reaching their daily limits [6] - Stocks related to the "horse" theme experienced notable increases, with Yuma Technology and other related stocks hitting the daily limit [8] Banking Sector - The banking sector faced declines, with several banks including Qingdao Bank and Hangzhou Bank dropping over 4% [11] - Overall, the banking stocks showed a downward trend, impacting market sentiment [11] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector experienced significant losses, with Zhun Oil shares hitting the limit down and other companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Beiken Energy also declining sharply [12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on breakthrough opportunities in technology-related fields such as semiconductors and components, as well as dividend sectors like banking and insurance [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

金属行业 2025 年中期投资策略系列报告之工业金属篇 20260626 摘要 2025 年下半年铝供给预计增长 0-1%，整体供给仍然紧张。上半年电解 铝盈利能力显著提升，单吨税前盈利接近 4,000 元。全年产能增长预测 维持在 1.2%-1.3%，主要增量来自云南地区。预计 2026 年新增产能 55 万吨，与今年相似，需关注俄乌冲突缓解后俄罗斯铝进口量减少的影 响。 年初预计铜矿端供给增长 3%，但受矿企检修和停产影响，全年增速下 调至 1%左右，导致 LME 现货价格上涨。未来三个月铜矿紧缺将持续， 可能引发冶炼厂减产。即使美国 232 审查落地，铜价回调幅度预计可控。 若美联储降息等宽松政策出台，可能引发类似去年 3 月的大行情。 2025 年全球铝市场供给增速预计较低，约为 2%。国内需求端表现良好， 交通和电力电子成为主要需求领域。1-4 月国内消费量同比增长 4%， 库存处于历史低位。新能源用铝占比约为 16.5%，地产竣工下滑导致铝 缺口为 25 万吨。电解铝供应偏紧，高盈利状态预计持续。 氧化铝价格大幅波动，预计在 3,000 元左右震荡。国内氧化铝对外依赖 度高，几内亚收回采矿证影响了 ...

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属双周报 2025 年 06 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 避险情绪支撑金价，刚果钴临时禁令延长 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 0.08% 近 2 周（2025.6.09-2025.6.20），有色金属行业指数上涨 0.08%，跑 赢沪深 300 指数，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 5。从细分领域看， 能源金属（1.54%）、金属新材料（0.90%）涨幅居前，贵金属、小金 属分别变化 0.54%、-2.00%，工业金属涨幅基本不变。 金属价格:地缘政治加大避险需求，贵金属价格回升 截至 6 月 20 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3384 美元/盎司，近 2 周上 涨 1.60%；COMEX 银收盘价为 35.95 美元/盎司，近 2 周下跌 0.50%； LME 锡现价 32,690 美元/吨，近两周上涨 1.35%；65%黑钨精矿现价 172,000 元/吨，近两周下跌 0.58%；稀土价格指数现价 182.17，近两 周下跌 0.70%；镨钕氧 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals sector as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant price increase due to limited strategic metal reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, coupled with rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. Geopolitical tensions and China's export controls on tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have exacerbated supply-demand conflicts, leading to a sustained upward price trend for small metals [12][15][17] - In May 2025, the overall non-ferrous metals sector saw a moderate increase, with precious metals (gold) and strategic small metals (rare earths, tungsten) leading the gains. The geopolitical situation has intensified, causing a decline in risk appetite in international financial markets, which has driven gold prices higher as a traditional safe-haven asset [12][15] Summary by Sections 1. Focus Areas: Supply-Demand Conflicts and Geopolitical Impact - The small metals market is currently hot, with prices rising due to limited reserves and high extraction difficulty. The rapid growth in demand from new energy and military sectors, along with geopolitical tensions, has intensified supply-demand conflicts [12][15] 2. Small Metals Price Increase Cycle and Strategic Resource Valuation - Small metals are experiencing a significant price increase, with tungsten concentrate prices reaching historical highs of 169,000 yuan/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increasing by 57.02%. The main drivers include limited reserves, high extraction costs, and increased demand from various industries [15][17] 3. Market Trends: Macroeconomic Sentiment Recovery and Non-Ferrous Sector Growth - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a recovery in May, with small metals leading the way. The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and China's economic recovery [12][46] 4. Policy Changes: Global Policies on Key Mineral Resource Protection and Development - Multiple countries are implementing policies to protect and develop key mineral resources, including the U.S. signing a "mineral agreement" with Ukraine and South Africa launching a critical minerals strategy. China is also taking measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals [13][27] 5. Key Industry and Company Developments - Harmony Gold's acquisition of Macarthur Copper for $1.03 billion and other significant mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector are noted. Companies are using diverse capital strategies to strengthen resource control and optimize capacity [14][15]

Market Overview - The US stock market has shown positive performance recently, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Dow Jones reaching its highest level since early March [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, marking its largest single-day gain since May 13, driven by expectations of liquidity easing following signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point level on June 24, with a trading volume of 1.41 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market signal [3] - Technical indicators such as RSI rising above 50, narrowing MACD bars, and KDJ golden cross suggest improving market sentiment [3] - However, significant selling pressure exists around the 3400-point mark, with historical failures to break through due to insufficient volume and trapped positions [3] Capital Flow - Northbound capital recorded a net sell of 6.304 billion yuan on June 24, with significant sell-offs in electronics, utilities, and home appliances, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage saw net inflows [4] - Main capital flows indicate net inflows in banking, industrial metals, and real estate development, while sectors like semiconductors and computer applications experienced net outflows, reflecting a shift in capital between high and low-performing sectors [4] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan on June 24, releasing liquidity into the market [4] - A joint initiative from six departments introduced a 500 billion yuan loan program to support service consumption and the elderly care industry, which is expected to benefit related sectors in the long term [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in supporting technological innovation, potentially boosting confidence in the tech sector [4] Geopolitical Context - High-level trade talks between China and the US have resumed, which may help ease trade tensions [4] - The ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is in effect, but ongoing conflicts warrant attention to geopolitical risks that could impact the market [4] Investment Strategy - A-shares are expected to continue an upward trend on June 25, but attention is needed around the 3400-point resistance level [5] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on sectors supported by policy, such as consumption, technology, and elderly care, which have strong growth potential [5] - Short-term investors should monitor volume changes, with a sustained increase to 1.5 trillion yuan or more indicating potential for further market breakthroughs [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are driving an increase in risk aversion, which supports the rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) has risen over 1.1%, reflecting the strengthening of precious metals due to heightened risk aversion [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), tracked by the gold stock ETF, includes companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, providing a representative performance of the gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has led to continued fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with strong long-term support for copper prices [1] - In the energy metals sector, cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, while strategic metals like neodymium oxide have seen a price recovery from a low point [1] - The black tungsten concentrate price has reached a historical high, indicating a potential revaluation opportunity for strategic minor metals like antimony and tungsten amid supply chain autonomy trends [1]