Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% from November 3 to November 7, ranking low among all primary industries, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's performance was characterized by a 0.04% decline, with energy metals up by 1.43%, industrial metals up by 0.42%, and precious metals down by 2.53% during the same period [1][2]. Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices faced pressure due to cooling macro sentiment, with LME copper closing at $10,695 per ton, down 1.80% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also fell, with SHFE copper at 85,940 CNY per ton, down 1.23% [3]. - Supply concerns arose from potential closures of smelting facilities in Canada and ongoing disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Demand showed slight improvement, with a reduction in the discount for spot copper prices [3]. Aluminum Market Analysis - Aluminum prices showed high volatility, with LME aluminum closing at $2,862 per ton, down 0.90%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 21,625 CNY per ton. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum increased, and social inventory rose by 0.13% to 627,100 tons [4]. - Expectations for rising energy prices both domestically and internationally could support aluminum prices in the future [4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, with COMEX gold at $4,007.80 per ounce, down 0.14%, and SHFE gold at 921.26 CNY per gram, down 0.07%. The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold, with expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5]. - The market is currently in a bottoming phase for precious metals, with volatility decreasing significantly after a three-week correction period [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% during the week of November 3 to November 7, ranking low among all primary industries. The industrial metals prices are under pressure due to disappointing manufacturing PMI data from both China and the U.S., alongside a strengthening dollar [1][14] - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive for precious metals, with a continued bullish outlook despite recent price corrections [4][45] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the non-ferrous metals sector fell by 0.04%, underperforming the index by 1.12 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 1.43%, industrial metals by 0.42%, while precious metals declined by 2.53% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of November 7, LME copper closed at $10,695 per ton, down 1.80% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also fell, indicating a cooling macro sentiment. However, there are signs of demand stabilization as the current price level is more acceptable to downstream users [2][31] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,862 per ton, down 0.90%, while domestic prices increased by 1.53%. The market anticipates upward pressure on aluminum prices due to rising energy costs [3][37] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose by 0.54% to $3,067 per ton, with inventories decreasing week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [39] - **Tin**: LME tin prices fell by 1.00% to $35,820 per ton, with supply constraints providing some price support despite a cooling macro environment [41] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,007.80 per ounce, down 0.14%. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in interest rate expectations, impacting gold prices. However, the overall macro framework remains bullish for precious metals [4][45] - **Silver**: The report notes a significant drop in volatility for precious metals, with silver prices showing signs of tightness in the physical market [46]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has established an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1][2] Asset Allocation Framework - The framework aims to diversify macro risks through SAA, setting a long-term allocation benchmark for portfolio stability [2] - TAA employs quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics, allowing for moderate adjustments in portfolio weights to enhance returns [2] - Major events are subjectively reviewed to calibrate and supplement the quantitative results [2] Equity Market Outlook - The firm holds an optimistic view on Chinese equities, recommending a 45% allocation in November, with overweight positions in A-shares (8.50%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.50%), while maintaining benchmark positions in US (15.00%), European (5.00%), and Japanese stocks (5.00%), and underweight in Indian stocks (3.00%) [3] - The improvement in China-US bilateral relations is seen as beneficial for Chinese assets, supported by stable domestic financial conditions and a favorable fiscal and monetary environment [3] - The demand for quality assets in China continues to surge, driven by a solid development logic [3] Bond Market Outlook - The firm maintains a neutral stance on bonds, suggesting a 45% allocation in October, with benchmark positions in long-term (10.00%) and short-term (12.50%) government bonds, as well as US Treasury bonds [4] - The bond market is supported by an imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, which enhances the cost-effectiveness of bond allocations [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion are expected to lead to wide fluctuations in domestic interest rates [4] Commodity Market Outlook - The firm holds a neutral to slightly optimistic view on commodities, recommending a 10% allocation in October, with benchmark positions in gold (5.00%), underweight in oil (1.25%), and overweight in industrial commodities (3.75%) [4] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are anticipated to experience performance opportunities due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles [4] - The rising complexity and cost of copper development may reduce investment willingness, potentially pushing copper prices higher [4]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on sector rotation ETFs from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025 [2] Core Views - The strategy is based on two research reports and constructs a strategy portfolio of sector and thematic ETFs [2] - For the week of November 10, 2025, the model recommends allocating to sectors such as communication equipment, software development, and consumer electronics [2] - The strategy will add holdings of Cloud Computing ETF, Battery ETF, Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, etc., and continue to hold Communication ETF, VR ETF, etc. Some ETFs and target index trading timing signals gave daily or weekly risk warnings as of last weekend [2] Performance Tracking - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 0.76%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately - 1.58% [2] - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 25.60%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.13% [2] Recommended Portfolio for the Next Week (20251110 - 20251114) | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Cap (Billion Yuan) | Holding Status | Coincident Shenwan Sector and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 515880 | Communication ETF | 117.77 | Continue to hold | Communication Equipment (75.3%) | 1 | 0 | | 516510 | Cloud Computing ETF | 19.86 | Add | Software Development (30.54%) | 0 | 0 | | 159786 | VR ETF | 2.10 | Continue to hold | Consumer Electronics (28.46%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 165.64 | Add | Battery (62.54%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF | 56.84 | Add | Industrial Metals (57.65%) | 1 | 1 | | 512220 | TMT ETF | 5.48 | Continue to hold | Semiconductor (37.25%) | 1 | 0 | | 512660 | Military Industry ETF | 142.21 | Add | Aviation Equipment (35.02%) | 0 | - 1 | | 159870 | Chemical Industry ETF | 172.55 | Add | Chemical Products (25.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.04 | Add | Automation Equipment (47.2%) | 1 | - 1 | | 588830 | Science and Innovation New Energy ETF | 10.06 | Add | Photovoltaic Equipment (46.08%) | 1 | 1 | [2] Holdings and Performance in the Past Week (20251103 - 20251107) | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Cap (Billion Yuan) | Recent 1 - week Return (%) | Holding Status | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 515880 | Communication ETF | 117.77 | 0.40 | Continue to hold | | 159768 | Real Estate ETF | 5.88 | - 0.66 | Remove | | 159869 | Game ETF | 113.12 | - 0.49 | Remove | | 562050 | Pharmaceutical ETF | 1.06 | - 3.04 | Remove | | 512800 | Bank ETF | 205.57 | 2.71 | Remove | | 159766 | Tourism ETF | 35.92 | 2.32 | Remove | | 512220 | TMT ETF | 5.48 | - 0.47 | Continue to hold | | 159786 | VR ETF | 2.10 | - 2.04 | Continue to hold | | 516560 | Pension ETF | 1.33 | - 1.25 | Remove | | 588700 | Science and Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (Harvest) | 3.16 | - 5.10 | Remove | | | ETF Portfolio Average Return | | - 0.76 | | | 510300 | CSI 300 ETF | 4277.20 | 0.82 | | | | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | | - 1.58 | | [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with a slight weekly increase and active trading, but there is a notable rotation of funds towards consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, while previously strong AI and technology stocks are undergoing adjustments [1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index has increased by 21.65% since the beginning of 2023, with a current rolling TTM PE of approximately 14.1 times, positioned at about the 64th percentile historically [2] - The CSI 500 Index has risen by 25.01% in 2023, with a TTM PE of around 34 times, situated at about the 62nd percentile historically, indicating a higher valuation cost-effectiveness [2] - The ChiNext Index has seen a 38.47% increase since the start of 2023, with a TTM PE of approximately 41 times, located at the 35th percentile historically, suggesting a greater undervaluation compared to the other indices [2] Valuation Comparison - The A-share market, represented by the CSI 300 Index at 14.1 times PE, is significantly lower than major global indices such as the S&P 500 (29.1 times), NASDAQ (42.3 times), Nikkei 225 (23.2 times), and Sensex (23.2 times), highlighting the valuation advantage of A-shares [3] - The risk premium, indicated by the dividend yield minus the ten-year government bond yield, is currently at 0.73, which is notably above the historical average, suggesting attractive excess returns for equity investors [2] Investor Sentiment - Despite the market's rise over the past year, A-share investors remain cautious rather than overly optimistic, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors, with some benefiting from the global AI cycle while others, like real estate and midstream manufacturing, continue to struggle [4] - The current market environment does not indicate systemic overvaluation risks but rather a correction of overly pessimistic expectations, particularly in growth and cyclical sectors [4] - The outlook for A-shares is optimistic, supported by clear policy frameworks, stable economic fundamentals, improving liquidity, and healthier valuations, suggesting a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "crazy bull" scenario [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Wanshun New Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 34.10% and a recent rise of 2.06% on November 10, reaching a stock price of 6.45 yuan per share [1] - As of October 31, Wanshun New Materials reported a decrease in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, with total revenue of 4.09 billion yuan, down 13.86% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 87.08 million yuan, a decline of 140.53% [2] - The company has a market capitalization of 5.79 billion yuan and has seen significant trading activity, with a turnover rate of 2.95% and a net inflow of main funds amounting to 8.77 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Wanshun New Materials is primarily engaged in the production and sales of aluminum foil and aluminum plates, with aluminum processing products accounting for 89.05% of its main business revenue [1] - The company is classified under the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in the aluminum sector, and is associated with various concept sectors including aluminum-plastic film and flexible electronics [2] - Since its A-share listing, Wanshun New Materials has distributed a total of 433.94 million yuan in dividends, with 53.33 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Market Strategy - The market is currently experiencing a volatile rotation, with a focus on defensive strategies. It is recommended to prioritize defensive tactics while considering low-value recovery opportunities in the mid-term [2][8] - The "dumbbell strategy" is suggested as a foundational approach, balancing between high dividend yield and low volatility sectors, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [8] Style Strategy - The technology growth sector is under pressure, while cyclical consumer sectors are positioned for defensive layouts. The market is seeing rapid rotation between technology growth and low-value cyclical sectors [3][8] Industry Strategy - The construction materials industry is expected to emerge from its cyclical bottom, supported by the "Construction Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" which provides clear policy guidance and development momentum. This plan aims to improve supply-demand relationships and restore profitability through systematic measures [4][8] - Structural opportunities in the construction materials sector include traditional leading companies with optimized supply patterns, leaders in green and emerging materials, and pioneers in digital transformation [8] Thematic Strategy - The environmental protection sector is gaining momentum, with potential for long-term driving forces. Recent climate commitments and policy changes signal a significant shift towards green and low-carbon transitions [5][8] - Relevant stocks in the environmental sector include Xuedilong (002658) and Yongqing Environmental Protection (300187), with associated ETFs such as the Environmental ETF (512580) and Carbon Neutrality ETF (159885) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and cooling interest rate expectations. However, the long-term price trend remains upward, supported by domestic demand improvements from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3]. - In the industrial metals segment, copper prices are under pressure due to a rebound in the U.S. dollar and reduced import costs, while aluminum production is stable despite environmental restrictions [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite regulatory delays in cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][4]. - Precious metals are forecasted to rise in value, driven by central bank gold purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit, despite short-term pressures from hawkish Federal Reserve signals [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices have decreased by 1.80% to $10,695 per ton, with a stable demand outlook for Q4 [9][35]. - Aluminum production capacity remains steady, with a slight increase in inventory by 0.3 thousand tons, indicating a stable demand environment [2][18]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to high demand from the battery sector, while cobalt supply is constrained by regulatory delays [3][4]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to rise, with current prices at $4,007.80 per ounce, despite recent fluctuations due to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy [4][62]. - Key companies recommended include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold International [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting its resilience and dividend attributes [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing power supply disruptions affecting aluminum production, suggesting a focus on the sector's elasticity and dividend potential [2]. - It notes that the global economic environment is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, which may benefit sectors like real estate and photovoltaics, leading to a tight supply-demand balance for aluminum and supporting prices [6][7]. - The report also discusses the recent acquisition of exploration rights by Tongling Nonferrous Metals, which is expected to enhance the company's resource reserves and sustainability [6]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 471.046 billion yuan, representing 3.92% of the market [3]. - The sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 4.9% over one month, 63.7% over six months, and 56.8% over twelve months [4]. Aluminum Industry Data - Power costs account for 30%-40% of the total cost of electrolytic aluminum, and disruptions in power supply are expected to impact the stability of existing production capacities [6]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 7,000 tons week-on-week, while aluminum rod inventory increased slightly [6]. - The report indicates that the profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are expected to remain high due to strong domestic supply constraints and resilient demand [6]. Copper Industry Data - The report highlights a decrease in copper inventories, with SHFE copper inventory at 115,000 tons, down 1,105 tons week-on-week [6]. - The overall copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the performance of key companies in the sector [7]. Precious Metals Outlook - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [6]. - It recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that international relations have improved, leading to a further increase in spot aluminum prices [3]. - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices have been supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, although recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have put pressure on these prices [12]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are expected to remain supported due to tight supply conditions and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [3][19]. - The lithium market is experiencing a shift in demand from electric vehicles to energy storage, which is expected to support lithium prices in the short term [19]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand in the hard alloy sector and a tight supply outlook [24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are under pressure due to a decrease in the probability of further Fed rate cuts and a strengthening dollar [11][12]. - Silver prices have also been affected, with recent data showing a decline in manufacturing activity in the U.S. [12]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices have been buoyed by improved international relations, maintaining levels above 21,000 CNY/ton [3][17]. - Copper supply remains constrained due to production disruptions in major mining countries, while demand is expected to recover as construction projects resume [14][19]. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand for energy storage solutions, with expectations of a significant supply-demand balance improvement by 2026 [19]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to low demand and production cuts in the domestic market [20][23]. Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to strong demand and tight supply conditions, with market sentiment remaining bullish [24]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the rare earth market, with some prices increasing while others decline [24]. Market Review - The report provides a weekly market review, highlighting significant stock movements, with Shenzhen New Star leading with a 32.62% increase [31].