供需端的利好进一步支撑价格。原油市场方面，EIA 数据显示截至 2 月 13 日美国原油库存减少 900 万 桶，远超市场预期的增加 210 万桶，库存意外下降为油价提供了基本面支撑。贵金属方面，全球央行持 续购金的长期逻辑未变，叠加白银库存紧张，为银价上涨提供了额外动力中经网。 尽管假期行情强势，业内机构对后市却保持谨慎，认为多重变量将加剧价格波动。原油市场方面，南华 期货指出，3 月至 4 月全球炼厂将进入传统检修季，需求可能出现阶段性收缩，同时 "欧佩克 +"4 月是 否重启增产、非欧佩克产油国产量增长情况，均为供应端带来不确定性中国经济网。此外，IEA、EIA 预测 2026 年全球原油可能出现供应过剩超 200 万桶 / 天，基本面与当前地缘溢价存在背离。 贵金属市场方面，正信期货表示，当前市场不确定性较高，操作需以谨慎为主中国经济网。黄金虽有央 行购金、地缘避险等利多逻辑支撑，但短期涨幅较大，面临获利了结压力；白银因兼具工业属性，且市 场规模小、投机头寸集中，波动率约为黄金的 1.5 倍，价格急涨急跌的风险更高。 后续，市场将聚焦四大核心变量：2 月 26 日美伊日内瓦谈判的实际进展、美国 15% ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11%, leading among major commodities, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3% [2] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were identified as a key driver for the price fluctuations in precious metals, with the market reacting to developments in negotiations and conflicts [2][3] - The US Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is seen as a significant event affecting precious metal prices, with potential implications for inflation and market risk preferences [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 5% and WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 4% [5] - The core pricing of the oil market remains influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the developments related to the US-Iran situation [5][6] - The reduction in US crude oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the holiday period provided additional support for market prices [5] Group 3: Future Price Volatility - Looking ahead, the oil market faces several core issues, including uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production policies and the growth of non-OPEC oil production [6] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected as global refineries enter a traditional maintenance period, which may lead to temporary demand contraction [6] - The precious metals market is characterized by high uncertainty, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies, particularly for gold and silver, based on geopolitical tensions and central bank activities [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in oil prices, reaching a six-month high, and the rebound in gold and silver prices, attributed to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as the conflict between the US Supreme Court and the President over tariffs, reflecting a deepening trend of de-globalization and resource nationalism [3][25]. - The US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, which has significant implications for the future of US tariff policy [4][26]. - The ruling redefines the constitutional boundaries of tariff authority, indicating that the power to impose tariffs belongs to Congress, potentially leading to a refund pressure of up to hundreds of billions of dollars on the government [4][26]. Group 2 - The article outlines two potential scenarios regarding the future of US tariff policy: a pessimistic view where tariff threats persist under new frameworks, and an optimistic view where the ruling creates legal barriers for future presidents to impose tariffs without congressional approval, potentially leading to a more stable global trade environment [5][27]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains tense, with military action still a possibility despite ongoing diplomatic talks, which has heightened risks in the oil market [6][28]. - Brent crude oil prices have risen to approximately $70-72 per barrel, reflecting increased geopolitical premiums and market consensus leaning towards a lower probability of reconciliation between the US and Iran [7][29]. Group 3 - The domestic macroeconomic environment is entering a critical observation period ahead of the "Two Sessions," with financial data indicating a rebound in M2 and M1 growth rates, driven primarily by government financing [8][30]. - The article identifies potential investment opportunities in domestic commodities, particularly in products that are currently at low price levels and have upward supply elasticity, such as caustic soda [8][30]. - In the agricultural sector, the palm oil market is showing signs of a bullish trend due to significant production declines in Malaysia and geopolitical factors affecting supply [9][31].

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11%, leading among major commodities, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were identified as a core driver for the price fluctuations in precious metals, with initial negotiations leading to a drop in oil prices and subsequent strong recoveries in both oil and precious metals [1][2] - The global silver inventory remains tight, and the upcoming March delivery month for COMEX silver futures is expected to test the market, with a high probability of price increases similar to previous delivery months [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 5% and WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 4% [2] - The pricing of international oil remains heavily influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the developments surrounding the US-Iran situation [2] - A significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, as reported by the EIA, provided additional support for market prices during the holiday period [2] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Trends - Other commodities displayed mixed performance, with industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper showing slight increases, while tin experienced a small decline during the Spring Festival [3] - Looking ahead, the oil market faces several core issues, including uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production policies and the growth of non-OPEC oil production, which will impact market balance [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are anticipated as global refineries enter a traditional maintenance period, potentially leading to temporary demand contractions [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The precious metals market is characterized by high uncertainty, suggesting a cautious approach to trading, with recommendations for gold investors to reduce positions during price spikes and accumulate during sharp declines [4] - For silver, which is more influenced by events and capital flows, strategies may include buying during sharp declines or following effective breakouts [4]

Global Assets: Rebalancing Continues - The current market rebalancing is based on internal and external recovery, with AI trading entering its second phase, leading to a focus on the actual impact of AI on various industries [3][13] - From February 16 to February 20, 2026, global risk assets showed an overall upward trend, but internal performance was mixed, with industrial, financial, and energy sectors gaining favor [3][13] - The focus has shifted from whether AI is a bubble to identifying the real industrial impacts and critical supply-demand issues as AI transitions from a thematic to a macro factor [3][13] Manufacturing Cycle Further Rising - The U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025 showed slower growth primarily due to government spending disruptions, while AI-related investments remained strong [4][25] - Non-AI and residential investment growth is showing signs of bottoming out, indicating a broader recovery in investment activities beyond just AI [4][25] - The February manufacturing PMI data indicated a recovery in global manufacturing, with Europe exceeding expectations and the U.S. maintaining expansion, suggesting a positive trend in manufacturing cycles [4][25][34] Commodities: Transitioning from Financial Overtrading to Industrial Pricing - Recent fluctuations in industrial and precious metals prices are attributed to macro and industrial events, with a return to real supply-demand signals expected [5][44] - Geopolitical risks continue to support industrial metal prices, while demand from tech giants for AI investments remains robust, indicating a potential new support for demand [5][44] - Historical data suggests that current copper and aluminum price ratios are low compared to historical manufacturing PMI levels, indicating potential for price recovery [5][44][45] Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets - The core of market rebalancing is not about the existence of an AI bubble but rather the macro impacts of AI combined with monetary and major country policy choices [6][56] - The relative smooth path for future U.S. interest rate cuts is expected to support the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese asset capacity [6][56] - Specific investment recommendations include physical assets like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors benefiting from capital inflows and consumption recovery in China [6][56]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, which have influenced market dynamics and asset prices, especially in precious metals and oil [2][12][21] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariff policies has created uncertainty in trade, impacting various sectors and leading to a rebound in certain stocks [4][48] - The report notes a divergence in global asset performance, with risk assets and safe-haven assets showing strength simultaneously during the holiday period [12][48] Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - The report discusses the impact of the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which has led to a significant shift in trade policy and market sentiment [4][5] - It notes that the ruling could erase nearly three-quarters of the revenue generated from Trump's tariffs, affecting various sectors [5][9] Commodities - Precious metals have seen a rise due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX silver increasing by 8.47% and gold by 1.66% during the holiday period [12][19] - Oil prices have also surged, with ICE Brent oil up 5.62% and NYMEX WTI up 5.57%, driven by supply risks and geopolitical factors [21][23] Bond Market - The US Treasury yield curve has shown a bear flattening trend, with short-term yields rising more significantly than long-term yields, indicating market expectations for future interest rate movements [28][30] - The report highlights that despite geopolitical tensions, the inflow of safe-haven funds into US Treasuries has been relatively restrained, suggesting that inflation and Federal Reserve policy expectations are more influential at this stage [28][30] Currency Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.91%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards cautious optimism amid geopolitical tensions [32][35] - The report notes that the euro has weakened against the dollar, primarily due to disappointing economic indicators from Germany [36] - The British pound has also faced downward pressure due to rising expectations for interest rate cuts [40] Equity Market - The report indicates that the South Korean index outperformed globally, driven by optimism in the AI sector, while US indices showed mixed performance due to rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions [48][49] - The report emphasizes that the global trade risk alleviation has boosted investor confidence in risk assets, contributing to the rise in various stock indices [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in global commodity markets driven by geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and economic data, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S. military actions in the Middle East and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military presence in the Middle East, particularly the deployment of the USS Ford, is exerting pressure on Iran amid negotiations, with predictions of increased likelihood of military action by the end of March 2026 [5][18]. - The oil market has partially priced in the potential for conflict, which could lead to sharp price increases if tensions escalate, followed by a potential price drop once the situation stabilizes [6][19]. Policy Factors - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval, affecting the legality of previously imposed tariffs [22]. - The Trump administration's response includes raising tariffs under a different legal framework, but the overall impact of these changes on the market may be limited due to existing exemptions and the temporary nature of the new tariffs [22]. Economic Data - The U.S. economy is showing signs of "stagflation," with Q4 2025 GDP growth at approximately 1.4% and core PCE inflation at 3% year-over-year, indicating economic weakness [11][23]. - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction remains uncertain, influenced by the balance of dovish and hawkish members in upcoming appointments, which could lead to shifts in market expectations [12][24]. Commodity Market Performance - During the holiday period, commodities such as gold, silver, and oil saw significant price increases, with WTI crude oil rising from $62.83 to $66.31, a 5.54% increase, and Brent crude oil increasing by 5.46% [17]. - The report notes that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements, reflecting the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors [4][20].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices are experiencing significant upward momentum, reaching new highs, while the domestic market is expected to catch up due to a "catch-up" effect after the holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Market Influences - Recent increases in gold prices are attributed to concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth and a rise in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which has surpassed 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined, trading around 97.40, which has further supported gold prices [1]. - President Trump's announcement of a 10% global import tariff, later raised to 15%, has heightened market uncertainty regarding trade, boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold opened with a jump, reaching a peak of $5,171, indicating a bullish trend following previous fluctuations [3][5]. - The technical indicators suggest a strong upward trend, with potential resistance levels identified at $5,250-$5,300 and support levels at $5,110-$5,120 [5][6]. - The market is expected to see a strong single-direction upward movement in gold prices, with a focus on maintaining positions in line with the current trend [5]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and employment figures, which could influence inflation trends and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly U.S.-Iran negotiations, may also impact market sentiment and gold prices [2].

Group 1 - The recent negotiations between the US and Iran have not led to a de-escalation of tensions, but rather have intensified the situation, suggesting a brewing storm in the Middle East [1] - Financial markets are reacting to the geopolitical tensions, with significant declines in European and Japanese stock markets, while energy stocks are rising, indicating a potential military action by the US against Iran [3] - The Polish Prime Minister's urgent call for citizens to evacuate Iran signals an imminent military action by the US, as historical precedents show that conflict often leads to the closure of airspace [5] Group 2 - The US military has completed its deployment in the Middle East, with a significant presence of naval and air forces ready for combat, indicating a high level of preparedness for potential military engagement [7] - The financial burden of maintaining such a large military presence is substantial, with daily costs for fuel, maintenance, and personnel support, raising concerns about the sustainability of this military strategy [8] - In terms of military capability, Iran is at a significant disadvantage compared to the combined forces of the US and Israel, which possess advanced technology and extensive combat experience [10] Group 3 - President Trump's objective of resolving the Iran issue with zero casualties presents a challenging goal, requiring precise intelligence and military execution to avoid retaliation [12] - The Trump administration is currently assessing the potential consequences of a military strike on Iran, weighing military, political, and economic factors before making a decision [14]

Core Insights - India's major industrial output grew by 4% year-on-year in January [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - Crude oil production decreased by 5.8% year-on-year [1] - Coal production increased by 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Natural gas production declined by 5% year-on-year [1] - Refinery products output remained flat year-on-year [1] - Fertilizer production rose by 3.7% year-on-year [1] - Steel production increased by 9.9% year-on-year [1] - Cement production grew by 10.7% year-on-year [1] - Electricity generation increased by 3.8% year-on-year [1]