证 券 研 究 报 告 科技制造引领，寻找景气成长 ——北交所25年二季报总结 2025.09.02 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 主要内容 2 ◼ 北证二季报盈利压力再现。截至25Q2，北证单季营收增速+4.9%、环比-0.4pct，单季归母净利润增速-16.6%、环比 -8.8pct，ROEttm达+6.0%、环比-0.1pct；拆分ROE来看，25Q2，北证资产周转率TTM达62.6%、环比+0.5pct， 北证销售净利率TTM达5.5%、环比-0.2pct。其中，盈利压力主要源于两方面，1）Q2海外扰动影响显现，我国对美 出口增速大幅下滑，25Q2，北证出口50%以上企业单季扣非净利润增速转负、达-4.4%，环比-21.0pct。2）供给压 力、北证固定资产增速达历史高位，25Q2，北证固定资产增速达+30.2%、环比+2.0pct，处于历史高位，对北证盈 利能力形成压力，25Q2北证毛利率TTM达22.4%、环比-0.3pct，下滑幅度高于其他板块。展望后续，固定资产增速 的拐点有望在下半年出现，关注北证供给优化后的盈利弹性，截至2 ...

Group 1: Overall Performance of ChiNext Companies - The ChiNext companies achieved a total revenue of 2.05 trillion yuan, with an average revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.03% [1] - The total net profit reached 150.54 billion yuan, with an average net profit of 109 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.18% [1] - The operating cash flow significantly improved, with an average net inflow of 113 million yuan, a substantial increase of 54.44% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Profitability and Growth Rates - Over 70% of the ChiNext companies reported profits, with 1,028 companies achieving profitability, accounting for 74.28% [2] - More than half of the companies saw a year-on-year increase in net profit, with 728 companies (52.6%) reporting growth, an increase of 4.86 percentage points from the previous year [2] - In the green and low-carbon sector, over 190 companies generated a total revenue of 507.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.85%, and a net profit of 496.99 billion yuan, up 25.55% [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Performance - The new energy vehicle industry saw a revenue increase of 11.45% and a net profit growth of 23.38%, with leading companies like CATL maintaining strong profitability [3] - The digital economy sector, comprising over 300 companies, achieved a total revenue of 370.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.66%, and a net profit of 29.22 billion yuan, up 40.03% [3] - The advanced manufacturing sector reported a revenue of 461.13 billion yuan, growing by 9.79%, with significant improvements in the second quarter [4] Group 4: Investment and R&D Trends - The top 100 companies in the ChiNext achieved a total revenue of 937.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.59%, and a net profit of 102.45 billion yuan, up 21.56% [5] - The overseas revenue of ChiNext companies grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 21.26%, particularly in the electronics and communication sectors [5][6] - R&D expenditures totaled 94.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.35%, with 188 companies spending over 100 million yuan on R&D [6][7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback on September 2, with all three major indices declining [1] - The main funds saw a net outflow of 119.685 billion yuan throughout the day [1] Sector Performance - Only three sectors saw net inflows: Public Utilities (2.04 million yuan), Comprehensive (1.89 million yuan), and Textile & Apparel (403.974 billion yuan) [1] - The electronics, computer, and communication sectors had the largest net outflows, with amounts of 24.716 billion yuan, 22.009 billion yuan, and 17.822 billion yuan respectively [1] - Other sectors with significant net outflows included Power Equipment, Non-ferrous Metals, and National Defense & Military Industry, each exceeding 5 billion yuan [1] - Non-bank financials, pharmaceutical biology, and machinery equipment sectors also experienced net outflows exceeding 4 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The report discusses how price increases are transmitted through the industrial chain, emphasizing the correlation between PPI and various manufacturing sectors, with a focus on six consumer goods chains: construction materials, electrical equipment, home appliances, automobiles, food and beverage, and apparel [1][9][10] - It highlights that upstream price increases in mining, metallurgy, and chemicals show strong correlation, while downstream sectors like components, equipment, and consumer goods exhibit a lag of 3 to 12 months in price transmission [1][9][10] - The report also analyzes the transmission of PPI to CPI, noting that since 2017, PPI has generally led CPI by about 6 months, indicating a potential widening of transmission lags across different industrial chains [2][19][22] Group 2 - The market review for August indicates a strong bullish sentiment, with A-shares leading the market, driven by AI catalysts and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][31] - The report notes that the growth style has outperformed, particularly in the TMT sector, while traditional sectors like banking have seen slight declines [3][31][34] - It mentions that the inflow of margin financing has accelerated, with a net inflow of approximately 274 billion yuan in August, particularly favoring sectors like computing, communication, and electrical equipment [34][38] Group 3 - The report suggests investment strategies that balance win rates and payoffs, recommending a focus on cyclical sectors and potential catalysts in the market [4][5] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring price signals in specific products and the verification of transmission across the industrial chain as key to the next profit cycle [29][30] - The report also highlights the potential for a global monetary easing trend if interest rate cut expectations continue to rise, which could support asset pricing in commodities and equities [4][5]

Market Performance Review - A-shares continued to rise this week, with all major indices showing gains. The ChiNext Index had the best performance, rising by 7.74%, while the Sci-Tech 50 also continued its strong performance with a 7.49% increase [4][12] - There was a clear differentiation in market styles this week, with growth styles maintaining strong performance, while cyclical and consumer styles saw a significant reduction in gains compared to the previous week. Stability and financial styles turned negative [4][12] - The mid-cap index performed the best this week, while large-cap and small-cap styles saw a slowdown in gains compared to last week. Core assets represented by the "Mao" index and "Ning" combination also saw significant increases, with the Ning combination rising by 3.91% and the Mao index by 3.63% [4][12] Industry Analysis - The TMT sector continued to lead the market, with significant gains in communication (12.38%), non-ferrous metals (7.16%), and electronics (6.28%). The overall trend remains dominated by TMT [5][16] - Conversely, dividend stocks underperformed, with textiles and apparel (-2.87%), coal (-2.76%), and banking (-2.13%) lagging behind. The value proposition of dividend stocks continues to decline amid rising government bond yields and increased market volatility [5][16] Future Outlook and Investment Views - Market volatility is expected to increase, and investors should pay attention to changes in market rhythm. Despite reaching new highs, market fluctuations have intensified, indicating growing divergence after two months of a trend upward [5][31] - The options market has shown a significant increase in volatility expectations for the next 30 days, suggesting that some funds believe the trend may change and are using options for hedging and protection [5][31] - With the completion of mid-term report disclosures, the overall performance of A-shares is still in a bottom-seeking process, prompting a reassessment of the alignment between macro/micro environments and individual stock valuations [5][31] - In terms of asset allocation, individual stock alpha logic is preferred over industry beta logic, with a focus on valuation recovery opportunities in technology growth sectors. The TMT growth direction, represented by AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules, is expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [5][31]

9月1日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3875.53点，上涨0.46%，深证成指收报12828.95点，上涨1.05%，创业板指收 报2956.37点，上涨2.29%，北证50指数下跌0.36%。A股市场合计成交27780.05亿元，较上一交易日减少 525.88亿元。 1. A股市场全天资金净流出364.22亿元 今日A股市场主力资金开盘净流出183.69亿元，尾盘净流出41.39亿元，A股市场全天资金净流出364.22 亿元。 4.利欧股份主力资金净流入18.51亿元居首 | | | 沪深两市近五日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | | 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | 2025-9-1 | -364.22 | -183.69 | -41.39 | -131.29 | | 2025-8-29 | -527.66 | -222. 09 | -41.04 | -247.22 | | 2025-8-28 | -389.74 | -174. 52 | 88. 42 | -122. 21 | ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 八月行情收官 投资要点： 本周（8/25-8/29）市场震荡上行，全 A 收涨 1.90%。从指数情况看， 创业板指、科创 50 领涨，中证红利、微盘股收跌。从风格情况看，科技领 涨，金融地产领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨跌不一，通信、有色金属、电子 领涨，银行、煤炭、纺织服饰领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：市场情绪上升，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股债 收益差下降至 0.7%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市场 情绪：市场情绪上升，行业轮动强度下降。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股指 数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在光模块(CPO)、光通信、6G。（3）市场 结构：市场量能创下新高，通信、电子、有色金属多头个股占比居前，轻 工制造、美容护理、建筑装饰内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆 股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 536 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平均成 交笔数较上周上升 166 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为宁德时 代、新易盛、东方财富，近 5 日涨幅分别为 6.6%、30.1%、3.8%。杠杆资 金净流入 1004 亿元，主要流入行业为电子、 ...

Market Overview - The A-share indices experienced an overall increase during the week from August 25 to August 29, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.36%, and the ChiNext Index by 7.74% [2][3] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 15 saw gains while 16 experienced declines, with the top three performing sectors being Communication (up 12.38%), Non-ferrous Metals (up 7.16%), and Electronics (up 6.28%) [2][4] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 29,831 billion yuan [2] Bond Market Review - The central bank conducted a net monetary injection of 196.1 billion yuan, with total monetary supply at 22,731 billion yuan and monetary withdrawal at 20,770 billion yuan [8] - Most interest rates declined, with the interbank pledged repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M changing by -2.58 BP, +0.23 BP, -0.85 BP, and +1.49 BP respectively [11] - The major bond market indices mostly saw declines, with the China Bond Composite Index changing by +0.08% and the China Convertible Bond Index decreasing by -2.58% [20] Public Fund Products Review - A total of 36 new funds were established during the week, with a total issuance of 26.337 billion units, including 25 equity funds and 5 bond funds [21][23] - As of August 29, 2025, there were 13,120 public funds in China, with a total net asset value of 34,601.8 billion yuan, including 3,164 equity funds and 3,903 bond funds [25] Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers highlighted the importance of sectors such as AI, semiconductor, and consumer electronics, indicating a focus on growth opportunities in these areas [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the A-share market, particularly in the technology sector [45] - Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade tensions persist, but the market appears to be desensitized to these issues, with potential for a bullish market outlook [46]

25家公司的营收及归母净利润在今年二季度均实现了单季度同比和环比正增长，如卓兆点胶、贝特瑞、 建邦科技等。同时21家公司宣布半年度分红计划，股东回报日益获得关注。 展望下半年，北交所公司整体业绩表现或将进一步延续增速回升趋势，北交所已经涌现了一批具备高壁 垒的稀缺性标的，凭借其竞争优势不断提升赛道份额、加快业务开拓。 四年来北交所市场规模稳步提升，市场运行保持稳中向好 8月份北交所北证50指数创出年内新高，显示市场情绪正在逐步修复。成交额较前期有所回升，新股上 市依旧延续高弹性特征，首日涨幅亮眼，凸显稀缺供给对资金的吸引力。市场在中报验证、政策预期和 资金回暖的共振下，已显现出活跃度提升的迹象。 截至8月31日，274家北交所上市公司全部完成半年报披露，平均实现营业收入3.36亿元，同比增长 6.01%。从业绩情况看，225家公司实现盈利，盈利面82.12%，168家公司（占比61.31%）营业收入同比 增长，137家公司（占比50 %）净利润同比增长。 华源证券北交所首席赵昊告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，整体来看，北交所上市公司上半年收入、盈利增速 均较2023—2024年有所回升，整体业绩表现有转暖迹象。 北交 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged over 300 points, breaking the 7.12 mark, reaching a nearly 9-month high on August 28 [1] - Historical experience indicates that bull markets in Hong Kong stocks are often accompanied by rapid appreciation of the offshore RMB [3] - Despite the focus on the A-share bull market, Hong Kong stocks have also been part of the current market rally, with significant gains, especially in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] Group 2 - Private equity A focuses on deep value investing, adhering to Graham's "cigar butt" philosophy, investing in undervalued securities [5] - The fund has achieved nearly 70% returns this year, with a maximum drawdown of only -5.14%, and has consistently generated positive returns over six years [8] - Private equity B emphasizes individual stock alpha, maintaining high positions when extreme valuation bubbles are absent, with a historical average position of around 70% [9][10] Group 3 - Private equity C adopts a contrarian approach, focusing on undervalued assets and maintaining a high position without following market trends [16][17] - The fund has achieved a 15% return this year and a 31% return over the past year, with a consistent annual return of 21% over six years [22] - The investment strategy involves a diversified portfolio across various sectors, including industrial, telecommunications, and energy, while avoiding crowded trades [20][23]