证券研究报告 【平安固收】2025年12月托管月报： 跨年后债券供给上升，市场承接力 面临考验 平安证券研究所固定收益团队 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 2026年1月5日 核心摘要 4 1.1同业存单新增托管量明显下降，地方债小幅下降 2 25年11月新增债券规模同比下降。2025年11月，债券托管余额为193.57万亿元，同比增速为13.37%，较上月下降0.67个百 分点；11月新增托管规模为14397亿元，同比下降 8221亿元。 分券种：25年11月债券供给同比下降，主要受同业存单拖累。25年11月利率债新增托管量同比小降，其中国债和地方债 下降，政金债增加；11月公司信用债新增托管量同比增加374亿元，全靠产业债支撑。 分机构：25年11月银行明显多增配，其余投资者需求偏弱。25年11月10Y国债利率小幅上升3.7BP，银行明显多增配，其 余投资者普遍降仓位。考虑央行买断式逆回购后，25年11月商业银行债券投资同比多增9170亿元，银行增持政府债规模/ 政府债净供给为90.9%，明显上升且处于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core background for the bond market in 2026 remains the continuation of the "liquidation phase" of the debt cycle. The bond yield central - downward space is limited, and the risk of a significant upward movement is also controllable [3]. - Inflation is likely to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026. The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to disappear, but it is unlikely to drive interest rates up [4]. - Fiscal policy maintains a more proactive stance, with a high supply of government bonds in 2026. The supply shock of government bonds remains the main risk factor in the "low - interest - rate" phase [5]. - Monetary policy continues its moderately loose tone, shifting its focus from quantity to price. There is still room for a small - scale reduction in policy rates [6]. - In 2026, the bond market's capital structure will be dominated by allocation - type accounts. The yield curve is likely to remain steep, and the riding strategy may be the best choice [7]. - For the credit strategy, avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums and apply the riding strategy to safe assets. Focus on the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds, infrastructure chains, and cyclical industrial bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Debt Cycle: "Liquidation Phase" Still in Progress - **Leverage Ratio Clearing and Transfer in 2026**: The macro - leverage ratio is in a state of "structural differentiation and overall stability". The de - leveraging process of the household sector is deepening, the enterprise sector's leverage ratio fluctuates at a high level, and the government sector's leverage ratio is expected to rise [23][25][26]. - **Relief of Liability Pressure in Three Sectors**: The liability cost of the household sector has decreased, the enterprise sector's interest - payment pressure has eased but the overall debt pressure remains large, and the government sector's interest - payment pressure is under control [31][35][38]. - **Policy Combination and Asset Prices in the "Liquidation Phase"**: China's debt cycle is still in the "liquidation phase". Fiscal and monetary policies need to maintain a "double - loose" combination. Asset prices should reflect new kinetic energy and improved expectations while considering the background of the debt cycle [43][44][45]. 3.2 Price Trends: Inflation May Enter a Mild Recovery Phase - **Food Prices**: The pig cycle may reach an inflection point in mid - 2026. Food prices are expected to show a trend of "stable first, then rising, with converging fluctuations", and the negative contribution of food prices to CPI is expected to weaken [52]. - **Energy Prices**: In 2026, energy prices are likely to be in a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and fluctuating weakly", with limited direct support for inflation [55]. - **Core Inflation**: Policy may drive the central trend to be low in the first half and high in the second half of the year, with a mild recovery throughout the year. The core CPI central may be between 0.8% - 1.2% [59]. - **Industrial Product Prices**: With the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the decline of PPI is expected to narrow. The PPI is expected to have an annual central around - 1.95%, and may turn positive periodically [63]. - **Inflation Outlook**: The drag of inflation on nominal growth is expected to be zero. CPI is expected to rise moderately, and PPI's decline is expected to narrow to - 2.0% [66]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy: More Proactive Stance with Maintained Debt - Issuing Scale - **Policy Tone**: Fiscal policy remains proactive in 2026. The general deficit rate is expected to remain around 4%, and the general deficit scale is about 14.55 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2025 [74]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The maturity pressure in 2026 is reduced, and the net issuance is expected to increase steadily. The annual issuance is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan [77]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance scale in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, and attention should be paid to the progress of debt - resolution work [85]. 3.4 Monetary Policy: Continued Loose Tone with Focus Shifted to Price Regulation - **Policy Tone**: In 2026, the pattern of stable and loose liquidity is likely to continue. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and the marketization of the interest - rate corridor, policy - rate system, and liability - side price mechanism will further improve [97][98]. - **Price - based Tools**: There is still room for a 20BP reduction in policy rates in 2026, which may guide a new round of adjustments in the interest - rate system [101][102]. - **Quantity - based Tools**: The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has significantly decreased. The regular operations of repurchase and MLF are expected to continue, and the scale of central bank bond - buying operations may decline [105][110][111]. - **Credit and Social Financing**: The de - leveraging cycles of households and enterprises continue, and credit growth faces continuous pressure. Government bond financing and enterprise bond financing expand to offset the weakening of general loan demand [117][120][123]. - **Deposit Situation**: Personal savings continue to grow at a high rate, and non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics. Unit deposits show differentiated fluctuations [129]. - **Narrow - sense Liquidity**: Liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable" characteristics of a downward price central and further converging volatility [140]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Allocation - type Accounts Dominate, Trading - type Accounts Under Pressure - **Banks**: In 2025, banks' bond investment thinking has changed systematically. In 2026, the main line of banks' bond investment with an allocation mindset will continue [155]. - **Insurance**: Insurance has a rigid demand for asset - liability duration matching. The allocation of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds has decreased, and the allocation of high - grade credit bonds and policy - based financial bonds has increased [175][180][186]. - **Wealth Management**: The scale of wealth management products is expected to grow in 2026. Asset allocation will focus on "net - value stability", with a preference for short - duration, high - liquidity assets [205][217]. - **Bond Funds**: The pattern of public - offering bond funds is about to change significantly. The trends of amortized - cost and ETF products will continue [218][230][231]. 3.6 Interest Rate Strategy: The Limit of Steepness and the Boundary of Riding - **Curve Shape**: In 2026, the yield curve is likely to remain steep, with the short - end likely to fall and the long - end difficult to decline [237][238]. - **Four Constraints**: Four factors limit the significant upward movement of long - end yields, including the decline of ROIC, the downward trend of long - term loan rates, the neutral stock - bond ratio, and the decline of banks' and insurance companies' liability costs [239][242][244]. - **Interest Rate Strategy**: The riding strategy may be the best choice in 2026, with a focus on the 5 - year Treasury bond [253][254][258]. 3.7 Credit Strategy: Supply Pattern Changes Significantly, Risk Premium Re - evaluated - **Credit Bond Supply**: The issuance of urban investment bonds continues to decline, while the issuance of industrial bonds and quasi - urban investment bonds increases rapidly. Science and technology innovation bonds have become the main incremental source of credit bond supply [263][276][281]. - **Capital Bond Supply**: The issuance of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continues to decline, and there is still a small gap in TLAC for some banks [290][296]. - **Credit Strategy**: Avoid the re - evaluation of risk premiums in some credit bond sectors. The riding strategy is applicable to short - duration credit bonds, and attention should be paid to the riding opportunities of medium - region urban investment bonds and infrastructure - related industrial bonds [303][316][320].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The bond market continued to fluctuate last week, with the yield curve flattening and rising. Affected by multiple factors such as the long - term local bond issuance plan in Shandong, the increase in cross - year funding costs, and better - than - expected official PMI data in December, the market sentiment weakened at the end of the year, and the bond market continued to operate weakly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the new regulations on public fund fees were officially implemented and were more lenient than expected, and the funding pressure eased after the New Year, so the bond market recovered somewhat. Overall, the bond market fluctuated weakly last week, and long - term bond yields rose slightly. For short - term bonds, although the central bank made continuous net injections before the holiday, affected by the cross - New Year's Day holiday, the increase in funding costs led to a significant rise in short - end yields, and the yield curve showed a flat upward trend. [3] - This week (the week of January 5), the bond market is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating pattern. Although the implementation of the new regulations on public fund fees and the loose funding at the beginning of the year will support the bond market to some extent, due to the high supply of local bonds with a high proportion of long - term bonds under the front - loaded fiscal efforts, the expected warming of the A - share spring market may cause capital diversion, and the "good start" of credit, the bond market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] Group 2: Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated weakly last week. Long - term bond yields first rose and then fell, with an overall slight increase. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.39% cumulatively last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.51bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.50bp compared with the previous Friday, with the term spread narrowing. [4] - On December 29, the local bond issuance plan in Shandong broke the previous expectation of "term contraction" of local bonds, causing concerns about the supply of ultra - long - term bonds. Coupled with the cross - year funding fluctuations, the market sentiment cooled, and the bond market weakened significantly. On December 30, the market sentiment recovered somewhat, ultra - long - term bonds recovered, but medium - and short - term bonds were still weak. On December 31, the official PMI data was better than expected, the market sentiment weakened, and the bond market fluctuated weakly. On January 4, the new regulations on fund fees were implemented, which were significantly more lenient than expected, the market sentiment recovered, and the bond market had a good start. [5] Primary Market - A total of 9 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, the same as the previous week. The issuance volume was 26 billion yuan, a decrease of 184.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was - 32.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 207.4 billion yuan compared with the previous week. There were no Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds issued last week, while the issuance volume and net financing of local bonds increased compared with the previous week. The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable, with an average subscription multiple of 6.91 times for 9 local bonds issued. [16][17] Group 3: Last Week's Important Events - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a rebound of 0.9 percentage points from November; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, a rebound of 0.7 percentage points from November; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from November. Driven by factors such as the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and the resilience of exports, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded significantly in December and returned to the expansion range since April. However, the service industry PMI index only increased slightly and was still in the contraction range, and the weak consumer demand needs further improvement. Looking forward, the supporting effect of growth - stabilizing policies on manufacturing prosperity is expected to continue, and the manufacturing PMI index in January 2026 is expected to remain in the expansion range. [19] Group 4: Real - Economy Observation - Most of the high - frequency data on the production side increased last week. The blast furnace operating rate, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants, and the average daily pig iron output all increased, while the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased significantly. From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise; the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rebounded slightly overall last week, and most commodity prices rose. Among them, copper and rebar prices both increased, while oil prices fell significantly. [20] Group 5: Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank made a net injection of 73.74 billion yuan in the open - market last week. The R007 and DR007 first rose and then fell, with an overall decline; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks decreased slightly overall; the discount interest rates of national and stock - holding banks at all terms increased significantly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to decrease; and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased. [31][33][35]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association is intensifying penalties for violations related to bond trading record-keeping, highlighting widespread issues in internal controls and compliance among institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The association will impose stricter penalties on institutions that fail to establish proper internal control systems for bond trading record-keeping [2]. - Specific violations include inadequate internal controls, failure to maintain complete trading records, and inability to provide records for serious violations [2][3]. - The association emphasizes the importance of accurate and comprehensive record-keeping as a fundamental requirement for the bond market [2]. Group 2: Market Context - There has been a rise in low-price bidding and "price competition" in the bond underwriting sector, which affects industry quality and investor rights [3]. - The bond underwriting business should focus on providing professional services for pricing, distribution, and risk control, reflecting "technical content" and "value creation" [3]. - As of November 2025, the interbank bond market's custody balance reached 173 trillion yuan, accounting for 88.1% of the total bond market custody balance [3].

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In November 2025, the bond market issued a total of 70,179.3 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including government bonds (10,444.2 billion yuan), local government bonds (9,126.9 billion yuan), financial bonds (11,955.0 billion yuan), corporate credit bonds (13,948.8 billion yuan), credit asset-backed securities (327.2 billion yuan), and interbank certificates of deposit (24,009.2 billion yuan) [1] - As of the end of November 2025, the bond market's custody balance reached 196.3 trillion yuan, with the interbank market holding 173.0 trillion yuan and the exchange market holding 23.2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - In November 2025, the interbank bond market recorded a transaction volume of 30.5 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2] - The exchange bond market had a transaction volume of 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 188.7 billion yuan [2] - The commercial bank counter bond transactions totaled 860.4 billion yuan across 8.1 million transactions [2] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of November 2025, foreign institutions held a custody balance of 3.6 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, accounting for 1.9% of the total custody balance [2] - Among foreign holdings, 2.0 trillion yuan (56.2%) were in government bonds, 0.7 trillion yuan (19.1%) in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan (21.1%) in policy bank bonds [2] Group 4: Money Market Conditions - In November 2025, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% but a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [2] - The bond repurchase transactions totaled 149.8 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% but a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [2] Group 5: Interest Rates and Commercial Paper - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.42%, up by 2.5 basis points month-on-month, while the weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.44%, up by 3.2 basis points [3] - In November 2025, the commercial bill acceptance amount was 4.0 trillion yuan, and the discount amount was 3.1 trillion yuan [3] - As of the end of November 2025, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 20.9 trillion yuan, and the discount balance was 16.2 trillion yuan [3] Group 6: Stock Market Performance - By the end of November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, a decrease of 66.2 points or 1.7% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,984.1 points, down 394.1 points or 2.9% [3] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 808.5 billion yuan, down 16.0% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 1,089.8 billion yuan, down 7.9% month-on-month [3] Group 7: Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of November 2025, there were 3,987 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [4] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [4] - The top 200 investors accounted for 84.6% of the holdings, indicating a high concentration of ownership [4]

Group 1 - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 3.0 basis points to 3.015% [1]

Group 1 - The bond market experienced significant volatility throughout 2025, with a notable concentration of investor positions in 1 to 3-year interest-bearing assets as a defensive strategy against net value uncertainty [2][10][11] - In December, the yield on 30-year government bonds reached a high of 2.2925%, reflecting the market's fragile sentiment and the impact of year-end assessments [10][11] - The introduction of new regulations regarding redemption fees for bond funds provided some relief to the anxious bond market, potentially reshaping investment strategies going into 2026 [10][11] Group 2 - The regulatory environment has shifted positively, with the new redemption fee rules easing previous constraints, which may lead to a recovery in the bond market [3][27] - The pricing of 5-year bank subordinated bonds is expected to see a valuation recovery of 5 to 10 basis points, with new pricing logic anticipated to return to the range of 2.1% to 2.15% [4][43] - The high yields on long-term credit bonds are influenced not only by the new redemption regulations but also by inherent liquidity issues, which may limit trading activity [3][38] Group 3 - The market has shifted focus from seeking excess returns to strictly controlling drawdowns, as evidenced by the significant trading volume in medium-term municipal bonds [11][22] - Fund managers have been the primary drivers of mid-term bond allocations, with net purchases reaching a weekly high of 21.2 billion, surpassing the average weekly volume from October to year-end [11][20] - The strategy of investing in 3-year AA+ municipal bonds has proven to be the most effective in December, highlighting the trend towards medium-term securities [22][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the end of 2025 was volatile and weak, mainly affected by year - end institutional behavior changes and strong December PMI data. The official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market, and the bond market at the beginning of 2026 is likely to recover [13][16]. - In 2026 Q1, the bond market has both risks and opportunities. At the beginning of 2026, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds similar to that in early 2025 is small. Higher interest rates are beneficial for allocation - type institutions, while trading - type institutions can focus on capital interest rates and potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [17]. - The "grand narrative" pricing and cyclical factors of gold are positive in 2026, and gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The long - term value of the RMB is underestimated, but in the medium - term, the supporting role of macro - policies during the transformation from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [20]. - The latest PMI and EIA data in the US show increased inflationary pressure and slowed economic expansion momentum. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has become more cautious. There are significant policy differences within the Fed, and the monetary policy path requires more data for confirmation [21]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Impact of PMI and New Fund Sales Regulations on the Bond Market**: From December 26 to 31, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.45bp from 1.8355% to 1.85%. On December 31, the release of PMI data initially suppressed the bond market sentiment, and the official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales had limited impact on the bond market that day [11][12]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data and Bond Yields**: The US December PMI initial values were all lower than expected, EIA inventory data changed, and the housing and labor markets showed mixed signals. The Fed's policy differences were significant, and the short - term interest - rate cut faced resistance [21][22][32]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries - **Liquidity Tracking**: From December 29 to 31, 2025, the net investment in the open market was 117.1 billion yuan. The money market interest rates and bond yields showed certain changes [36][41]. - **Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices generally rose, LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased across the board. Overseas, the US stock and bond markets, and commodity prices also had corresponding fluctuations [59]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, 9 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 26 billion yuan, including 11.5 billion yuan in refinancing bonds and 14.5 billion yuan in new special bonds. The net financing amount was 17.449 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [84]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The local bond stock was 54.61 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 133.992 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.25%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [97]. - **This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan**: The issuance plans for Shandong and Zhejiang provinces from January 5 to 9, 2026, were provided [103]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 81 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 74.42 billion yuan, a total repayment of 136.119 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 61.7 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 8.818 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was - 52.882 billion yuan [104][105]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds showed different degrees of change [118]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total trading volume of credit bonds was 242.219 billion yuan, with short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes having relatively large trading volumes [119]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [121][123][125]. - **Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different degrees of change, with the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widening [128][131][134]. - **Grade Spreads**: The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [135][141][142]. - **Trading Activity**: The industrial sector had the largest trading volume of bonds, reaching 152.732 billion yuan. The top five most actively traded bonds in each category were listed [147]. - **Subject Rating Changes**: The subject ratings of several companies were upgraded, including Yichun Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Suining Tianyi Investment Group Co., Ltd. [149].

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of global stock markets during the New Year holiday, noting a general decline from Monday to Wednesday, followed by a significant rise on Friday, with the global stock index increasing by 0.74% [4][7][8]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.76% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 4% on Friday, marking a strong start to 2026 [10]. - Chinese concept stocks in the US saw a notable increase of 4.64%, attributed to the recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, which positively impacted the valuation of Renminbi-denominated assets [11][21]. Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of the Renminbi's strong performance on asset valuations, particularly during periods of US dollar depreciation, which has been observed over the past year [21][23]. - It mentions that the last bull market for A-shares and H-shares occurred during a similar dollar depreciation phase from 2019 to 2021, suggesting that continued dollar easing in 2026 could benefit these markets [25][26]. - The article also notes that interest and exchange rates are cyclical, indicating potential buying opportunities during rate hikes and selling opportunities during rate cuts [28][29]. Group 3 - A star rating system for global stock markets is introduced, indicating that the market was undervalued during certain periods in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the current rating around 3 stars, suggesting a normal valuation [30][31]. - The article points out that while there are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, there are currently no such funds in mainland China, although a simulated global index investment strategy is available through advisory combinations [33]. Group 4 - The article promotes a new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret," which has been updated with nearly 30 years of data and includes new chapters on various asset classes, emphasizing the long-term benefits of stock investments [39][40]. - It concludes that a certain proportion of family assets should be allocated to stocks for wealth accumulation, despite the inherent volatility and risks associated with stock investments [41].