Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price rose 0.49% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.04% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, while smelting output continued to grow. After the release of optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may experience a phased correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Overnight price up 0.49%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 100,990 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 110 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 12,966 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 67.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory 143,575 tons with a daily increase of 2,450 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,025 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 150 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,159 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 15.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 488,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: Overnight price down 0.04%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,234 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 41.66 dollars/ton, LME inventory 106,525 tons with a daily decrease of 175 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 142,320 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5,750 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 18,133 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 196.02 dollars/ton, LME inventory 285,732 tons with a daily increase of 450 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 135 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,061 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 47.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory 206,350 tons with a daily decrease of 5,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 389,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis 26,370 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 49,258 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 108.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,935 tons with a daily increase of 10 tons [2]. Demand - side Information - For copper and zinc, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is decreasing, and the real - estate market remains weak. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment for zinc is slowing down, and the galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level [2].

Macroeconomic Overview - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, while real estate development investment is expected to decline by 17.2% [1][2] - The economic performance shows a clear divergence, with supply and external demand improving while internal demand remains weak, particularly in investment growth [1][2] - The government is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand to stabilize growth, with fiscal and monetary policies already showing signs of support [1][2] Currency Exchange - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 6.9636, appreciating by 53 basis points, while the central parity rate was adjusted to 7.0051, up by 27 basis points [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by resilient exports and increased willingness of enterprises to settle in RMB, despite potential pressures from international trade tensions [4] Investment Strategies - Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange rates around 7.01 to mitigate risks from potential currency depreciation, while importers should consider rolling purchases near the 6.93 mark [5] - The bond market is expected to face limited upward potential due to a lack of driving factors, with short-term strategies suggesting a cautious approach [6] Commodity Market Insights - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a slight increase, with prices at 147,260 RMB/ton, while the overall lithium battery supply chain is experiencing weak performance [11][12] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to rise due to anticipated production cuts, with the main contract trading at 8,845 RMB/ton [12][13] - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices rebounding to 5.9055 USD/pound, driven by external factors and market sentiment [15][17] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is facing a potential supply gap in Q1 2025, with imports expected to be lower than previous years, while domestic soybean meal inventories are decreasing [22][23] - The canola market is showing signs of recovery due to improved trade relations with Canada, which may lead to lower tariffs and increased imports [22][25] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising, driven by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. tariff policies, with gold reaching 4,676.7 USD/ounce and silver at 94.28 USD/ounce [29][30] - The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with expectations of continued demand from central banks and investors amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [27][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as tariff expectations and market liquidity. Although there are some negative factors, the sentiment is not overly pessimistic in the context of a bullish precious metals market and loose US financial market liquidity expectations. In the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is generally regarded positively. However, the prices of different metals will show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On January 19th, LME copper 3M rose 1.28% to $12,987/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,850 tons to 147,425 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 10,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The SHFE copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,440 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of Trump's additional tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the US plan to impose additional tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment. However, with the strong performance of precious metals and the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market, the sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME spot market is strong, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 100,000 - 103,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,200/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On January 19th, LME aluminum closed up 1.12% at $3,165/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,225 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position slightly increased to 698,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum bar social inventory increased by 9,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 485,000 tons. [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The precious metals market has strengthened again, and market sentiment has improved. The high spot premium of US aluminum and the low LME global aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downside of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment may increase. Coupled with the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, the aluminum price may be relatively strong in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 23,900 - 24,400 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - 3,200/ton. [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.68% at 22,890 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 11,100 lots, a decrease month - on - month. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 tons to 69,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts was 1,200 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 remained flat, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased by 300 tons to 43,200 tons. [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and supply - side disturbances continue. However, demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [9] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 1.65% to 17,185 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S fell $26.5 to $2,048.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 166,000 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 135 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 206,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 43,700 tons. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the operating rate of primary lead has remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory on the recycling side has increased, and the weekly operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery manufacturers has improved marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. After the winter cooling, the transportation of waste batteries has become difficult, the scrap pricing coefficient has increased, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has declined slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [11][12] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index fell 1.17% to 24,456 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 232,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S fell $41.5 to $3,222.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 232,200 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,420 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was at par, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 40 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,500 tons. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of zinc ore has decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrates has decreased slightly. However, the increase in zinc price has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, and the industrial situation has not improved significantly. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to increase, and the SHFE - LME ratio has stopped rising and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of SHFE zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price has a large potential for catch - up growth compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. It has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [14] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the tin price continued to weaken. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 389,500 yuan/ton, a 3.88% decrease from the previous day. The smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and production was normal. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar has accelerated, and the increase in tin price has boosted the enthusiasm for resumption. In addition, it is estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore will be imported in December, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan has significantly eased compared to the previous period, with an expectation of further import increases. However, after the two regions resumed from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price waiting - and - seeing. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday. [15][16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation of tin has improved marginally, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on the price. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, the tin price may continue to decline in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [17] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the nickel price rebounded after hitting a low. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 142,710 yuan/ton, a 0.66% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The nickel ore price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, and the price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of nickel iron increased significantly, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day. [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory in the short term. It is expected that the SHFE nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the SHFE nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton. [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 144,461 yuan in the evening session, a 2.84% decrease from the previous working day. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 143,500 - 146,300 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 4,100 yuan (- 2.75%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 140,600 - 143,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3.30% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 147,260 yuan, a 0.73% increase from the previous day's closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. [22][23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic sentiment has eased, and the lithium price fluctuated widely on Monday. The progress of mine type change in Jiangxi mines has been made, but even if the mining license is obtained, there are still procedures such as the safety production license and environmental impact assessment approval, and it is difficult to directly translate into supply at present. The impact of this event on the sentiment level should be mainly concerned. If the increase in lithium price is fully transmitted to the end - users, the increase in battery cost will suppress some energy - storage demand, and the current price still has a certain emotional premium. The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly recently, and there are many disturbances in the industrial and macro aspects. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream acceptance willingness, and changes in position on the disk. The reference range for the GZFE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 140,200 - 151,000 yuan/ton. [23] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 19, 2026, as of 3 pm, the alumina index fell 0.69% to 2,726 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 704,400 lots, an increase of 12,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,565 yuan/ton, at a discount of 168 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $305/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Monday were reported at 187,900 tons, an increase of 111,000 tons from the previous trading day. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $63/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton. [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mine is expected to cause the ore price to decline in an oscillatory manner. Pay attention to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market expectation for the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, continued rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The cost - performance of chasing up is not high. One can wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contract at a high price. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [26] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,305 yuan/ton, a 0.21% (+ 30) increase on the day, with a unilateral position of 263,700 lots, an increase of 2,294 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 455 (- 130), and the Wuxi basis was - 205 (- 80). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 1,015 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous day. The recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Stock Index**: In the long - term, policies support the capital market, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 2. **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market rally, government bond supply pressure, and inflation expectations in the first quarter [6]. 3. **Precious Metals**: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [8]. 4. **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as supply and demand, tariffs, and market sentiment [11][13][16]. 5. **Black Building Materials**: The steel market continues to be weak and volatile, and iron ore prices may be adjusted at high levels. Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and strong. Glass and soda ash markets lack obvious drivers and are expected to be volatile [32][35][39]. 6. **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be short - sold if it breaks through a certain price, and methanol is recommended to be bought on dips [57][61]. 7. **Agricultural Products**: The short - term of some agricultural products such as live pigs and eggs may be strong, while the medium - term of live pigs may be under pressure. Protein meal and oil prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [81][83][86]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. Memory chip shortages intensify, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts for different terms are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short - term, as the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year and the unchanged policy support for the capital market in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts change. China's GDP in 2025 grows by 5%, and relevant economic data for December 2025 is released. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 722 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, the demand side is weak, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the first quarter, affected by factors such as the stock market rally and government bond supply [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise, and relevant information about the Fed's new chairman's candidate and the Fed's independence is provided [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, buy on dips after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rise, LME copper inventory increases, domestic electrolytic copper inventory changes, and the import loss and refined - scrap copper price difference are given [10]. - **Strategy**: Although market sentiment is affected by tariffs, it is not pessimistic. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise, inventory changes, and the processing fee and spot premium/discount are provided [12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The industrial situation has no obvious improvement, but zinc has a large room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead supply increases, and the price may be affected by market sentiment. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise, and the cost and price of nickel ore and nickel iron change [19][20]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall, supply and demand change, and inventory increases [21]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price index of lithium carbonate falls, and the futures price rises [22]. - **Strategy**: The price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price index of alumina falls, inventory increases, and relevant cost data are provided [24][25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts on rallies, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise, inventory decreases, and raw material prices are provided [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, with a reference price range for the main contract [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is stable, inventory decreases, and the price difference between contracts changes [28]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile and consolidate in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall, and inventory and position data change [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is weak and volatile. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to a short - term supply contraction, and attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking and policy changes [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore falls, and relevant data such as inventory and basis are provided [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure eases, but the new driving force is insufficient. The price may be adjusted at high levels, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and hot metal production [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but attention should be paid to short - term market sentiment shocks and high volatility risks [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Market Information**: The price of glass falls, inventory decreases, and position changes [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand are in a loose balance, and the price is expected to be volatile in a wide range, with a reference price range for the main contract [40]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash is stable, inventory changes, and position changes [41]. - **Strategy**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted out, with a reference price range for the main contract [42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fall, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [43][44]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment affects the price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [47]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of large - factory production cuts [49]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [50]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [51]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are weak, with different views from bulls and bears. Tire factory开工率 changes, and inventory increases [53][54][55]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy if the price breaks through a certain level, and consider partial position - building for a spread trading strategy [57]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the inventory of refined oil products changes [58]. - **Strategy**: Raise the valuation of heavy - oil products, and expect the spread of asphalt or fuel oil to rise [59]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol changes, and MTO profit changes [60]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips due to geopolitical expectations [61]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea changes, and the basis is provided [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC falls, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is poor, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term, with short - term support from electricity prices and export - rush [68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term and expect further valuation compression in the medium - term [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy**: The price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the spread between LL5 and LL9 contracts on dips [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year under the background of weak supply and demand [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends in the north and south, and the market sentiment changes [80]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure due to large supply [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and inventory and demand data are provided [82]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is strong, but the overall supply is abundant. The long - term of the far - end contract is expected to be good, but there are uncertainties [83][84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fall, and relevant trade and inventory data are provided [85]. - **Strategy**: The prices are affected by multiple negative factors, and short - term fluctuations may increase [86]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils fall, and relevant inventory and policy information are provided [87][88]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term is expected to be optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fluctuates, and relevant import and production data are provided [90][91]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton fluctuates, and relevant import, production, and inventory data are provided [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room for growth in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [95].

Group 1 - The company plans to conduct necessary daily related transactions with its controlling shareholder, Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., and its subsidiaries, with an estimated total amount not exceeding 510.17 million yuan for the year 2026 [1][2] - The actual amount of daily related transactions with related parties from January to November 2025 was 430.06 million yuan [1] - The board of directors approved the proposal for the estimated daily related transactions with a unanimous vote of 6 in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [1][7] Group 2 - The independent directors believe that the daily related transactions for 2026 are necessary for the company's operations, are fairly priced, and do not affect the company's independence or harm the interests of shareholders [7][8] - The audit committee also approved the proposal, stating that the transactions are normal commercial activities and comply with market fairness principles [8] Group 3 - The company aims to optimize resource allocation, improve asset utilization efficiency, and reduce operational costs through these related transactions, which are essential for daily operations [6] - The transactions will be based on market prices and will follow fair pricing principles, ensuring no harm to the company or shareholders [6] Group 4 - The company plans to conduct commodity futures hedging to mitigate price volatility risks associated with its main products, with a maximum margin of 700 million yuan [30][31] - The hedging activities will be limited to transactions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and will not involve speculative trading [31][32] Group 5 - The company intends to use idle self-owned funds for cash management, with an investment limit of up to 1.5 billion yuan, focusing on high-security and high-liquidity products [42][44] - The cash management activities are designed to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization without affecting the company's normal operations [44][50] Group 6 - The company will hold its first extraordinary general meeting of 2026 on February 12, 2026, to discuss the approved proposals, including the daily related transactions and cash management [58][59] - The meeting will allow for both on-site and online voting, ensuring participation from all shareholders [59][60]

（来源：宝钛启明星） 责编丨刘俐彤 张静宇 1月16日，2026年省属企业负责人会议在西安召开。会上，陕西有色金属集团同时荣获省国资委2025年度"稳增长突出贡献奖""科技创新奖"和"改革发展提 升奖"3项大奖。 生产经营提质向好。2025年，陕西有色金属集团"高端绿色、材装并进"新主业格局加速构建，首谋并着力推动"25+12"首要标志性重点任务优化、落地、 见效，以"高质量+新质生产力"破解经营堵点和市场变化，健全产能运行监管体系，统筹"产、供、运、销"四链协同，深化"五新"增长"矩阵"，全面完成 年度目标任务。 科技研发成果丰硕。集团公司聚焦有色金属材料、碳硅新材料、镁合金轻量化产业、新能源等领域共性关键技术，深化产学研协同创新。"奋斗者号全海 深载人深潜器"获国家科技进步特等奖；"钼合金、钛合金"领域2项关键技术获国家科技进步二等奖。"航空用TA18钛合金管材""中间相沥青基碳纤维"等获 省工信厅2025年度新材料首批次应用产品销售奖励，"钼铼合金无缝薄壁管材""汽车碳陶刹车盘"等22项产品获批2025年陕西省重点新产品开发项目。 国企改革答卷亮丽。国企改革深化提升行动改革任务全面完成。"12项深化改革 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's aluminum and non-ferrous metal production is showing positive growth trends, with specific figures highlighting the production increases for both raw aluminum and ten types of non-ferrous metals in December 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - In December 2025, China's raw aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production reached 3.87 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The cumulative production of raw aluminum from January to December 2025 was 45.02 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1] - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals in December 2025 was 7.21 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - The cumulative production of these non-ferrous metals from January to December 2025 totaled 81.75 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in zinc futures prices indicates potential short-term volatility, with various institutions providing differing outlooks on future price movements [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 19, zinc futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 24,335.00 yuan and closing at 24,445.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - **Shenwan Hongyuan Futures**: Anticipates a potential phase of price correction for zinc due to a combination of factors including a decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees, tight concentrate supply, and a high inventory of galvanized sheets. The overall supply-demand balance for zinc appears stable, suggesting a possible price pullback [2]. - **Wheaton Precious Metals Futures**: Highlights that zinc prices still have significant room for upward adjustment compared to copper and aluminum, despite a slight decrease in port inventories and processing fees. The current zinc-copper and zinc-aluminum ratios are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3]. - **CICC Wealth Futures**: Suggests that zinc prices may experience short-term fluctuations, driven by external factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks. The market is currently facing a tug-of-war between strong expectations and weak demand, with domestic zinc supply tightening providing some support for prices [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Asset Allocation**: In the equity market, Chinese stocks have high return odds, while US stocks need to be carefully differentiated, and Japanese stocks offer short - term event - driven opportunities. In the fixed - income market, the Chinese bond market will likely fluctuate, and the US bond market will be volatile. In commodities and foreign exchange, crude oil will be highly volatile, the value of gold will be prominent, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the equilibrium level with a mild appreciation basis [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar before the Spring Festival. The appreciation space depends on the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation of the RMB exchange rate [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The short - term adjustment of the stock index is only a slowdown in rhythm, not a trend reversal. It is expected to strengthen again after the adjustment [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may need new catalysts to continue rising. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [5][6]. - **Commodities** - **Carbonate Lithium**: There is support on the demand side before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, but beware of the impact on downstream demand. Investors can look for structural long - making opportunities [7][8]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon enterprises' production resumption. In the medium - term, polysilicon prices may decline, but industrial silicon has support at the bottom [8][10][11]. - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by multiple events. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations and avoid new positions above 100,000 yuan [11][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may rise in the long - term; alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [15][16]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the bottom in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe the entry opportunity after a significant correction [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The trend is volatile, and the quota issuance rhythm is the core factor [19]. - **Tin**: It may maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lead**: It will mainly fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds** - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal has limited downward space, and rapeseed meal may be re - priced internationally [22][23]. - **Oils**: The support for rapeseed oil is weakening, and attention can be paid to the narrowing of the rapeseed - palm oil price difference [24][25]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak long - term trend, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a sluggish cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt**: The basis may be passively strengthened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread [28][29]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a high - level wide - range shock. Be wary of the callback risk during the Spring Festival [31][32][35]. - **Gold and Silver**: They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern. Long - term bullish, but pay attention to position control [35][36]. - **Chemicals** - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current situation is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term, but there may be a phased correction in the short - term [42][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The excess supply will suppress the valuation, and the "reversal" may rely on macro - narrative [44][45]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical logic [46]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [48][49]. - **PE**: It may maintain a weak trend in the short - term [49][50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene is relatively strong, but do not chase high prices [50][51][52]. - **Rubber**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][68][69]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions, with a possible short - term correction [54][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash has an over - supply expectation; glass has a weak supply - demand pattern [56][57]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise in the short - term, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [57][58]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is over - valued in the short - term, but there is support at the bottom [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the macro - sentiment and the resumption of domestic mines after the Spring Festival [62]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They may oscillate at the bottom after the correction [62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Hogs**: The price will continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend change in the short - term [64][65]. - **Cotton**: It may fluctuate in a narrow range, and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [65][66]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and pay attention to the production progress in Thailand and India [66][67]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the near - term contracts [68]. - **Apples**: The disk may continue to decline if the Spring Festival stocking does not improve [70][71]. - **Red Dates**: The price will likely fluctuate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [72]. - **Logs**: The 03 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 795 yuan, and consider the 3 - 5 positive spread [73][74][75]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market News**: The US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries; China adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages; China's electricity consumption in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh; the CSRC emphasizes market stability [1]. - **Core Logic**: Five core logic lines for asset allocation are proposed, covering the Fed's policy, geopolitics, global growth sources, social vulnerability, and policy cycle differences [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The short - term adjustment of the stock index is temporary, and it is expected to strengthen again [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market needs new catalysts, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the medium - term and wait in the short - term [5][6]. Commodities - **New Energy** - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price dropped last week, but the demand is supported before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the industry fundamentals are stable [7]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon fluctuates widely, and polysilicon focuses on inventory reduction. Pay attention to polysilicon enterprises' production resumption [8][10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The price dropped last week due to multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [11][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may rise in the long - term; alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [15][16]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the bottom in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe the entry opportunity after a significant correction [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The trend is volatile, and the quota issuance rhythm is the core factor [19]. - **Tin**: It may maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lead**: It will mainly fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds** - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal has limited downward space, and rapeseed meal may be re - priced internationally [22][23]. - **Oils**: The support for rapeseed oil is weakening, and attention can be paid to the narrowing of the rapeseed - palm oil price difference [24][25]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak long - term trend, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a sluggish cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27]. - **Asphalt**: The basis may be passively strengthened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread [28][29]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a high - level wide - range shock. Be wary of the callback risk during the Spring Festival [31][32]. - **Gold and Silver**: They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern. Long - term bullish, but pay attention to position control [35][36]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price dropped, and the offset paper futures are bearish. It is recommended to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term, but there may be a phased correction in the short - term [42][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The excess supply will suppress the valuation, and the "reversal" may rely on macro - narrative [44][45]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical logic [46]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [48][49]. - **PE**: It may maintain a weak trend in the short - term [49][50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene is relatively strong, but do not chase high prices [50][51][52]. - **Rubber**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][68][69]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions, with a possible short - term correction [54][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash has an over - supply expectation; glass has a weak supply - demand pattern [56][57]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise in the short - term, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [57][58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is over - valued in the short - term, but there is support at the bottom [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the macro - sentiment and the resumption of domestic mines after the Spring Festival [62]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They may oscillate at the bottom after the correction [62][63]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The price will continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend change in the short - term [64][65]. - **Cotton**: It may fluctuate in a narrow range, and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [65][66]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and pay attention to the production progress in Thailand and India [66][67]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the near - term contracts [68]. - **Apples**: The disk may continue to decline if the Spring Festival stocking does not improve [70][71]. - **Red Dates**: The price will likely fluctuate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [72]. - **Logs**: The 03 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 795 yuan, and consider the 3 - 5 positive spread [73][74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has entered a volatile period. The Shanghai Composite Index once soared to 4190 points last Tuesday, but then fluctuated due to the increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading. Market enthusiasm declined, and funds shifted from theme stocks to stable - growth technology stocks. The net outflow of funds from equity ETFs suppressed the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices, and the index performance was differentiated [19]. - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but there are still unfavorable factors. Although the central bank maintains a loose monetary policy tone and there is room for increasing total - volume policies, the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, and there are more disturbances in the capital market next week. The downward momentum of long - term bond yields is also insufficient [22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of protein meal increases, and the overall disk is under pressure. The sugar price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic due to the large increase in sugar imports in December. The vegetable oil market may continue to fluctuate due to the possible resumption of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The driving force for coking coal and coke is not obvious, and they will continue to fluctuate. Iron ore prices are treated with a bearish attitude at high levels, and ferroalloys have strong bottom support after adjustment [58][62][66]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals such as gold and silver are affected by multiple factors and have large fluctuations. Platinum and palladium are in high - level oscillations. Copper has a short - term increase in fluctuations but maintains a long - term upward trend. Alumina runs weakly, and aluminum prices decline due to the cooling of market sentiment [73][76][78]. - In the shipping market, the spot freight rate shows an inflection point, and there are differences in the market's view on the strength of the pre - Spring Festival rush. The large - scale resumption of shipping on the European line is still difficult in the first half of the year [110][112]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices may be under pressure due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. Asphalt supply and demand are weakly operating, and fuel oil has large fluctuations due to geopolitical risks [115][118][120]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: The market is in a volatile period, with funds shifting from theme stocks to technology stocks. The futures basis has changed, and the net short position has increased [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options [20]. Treasury Futures - **Core View**: The bond market sentiment has recovered, but the short - term policy rate cut probability is not high, and the long - term yield downward momentum is insufficient [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading; short the basis of the 30Y active bond for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core View**: The supply pressure increases, and the domestic cost side is under pressure. Although the spot has some support in the short term, the overall disk pressure still exists in the long term [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: A bearish mindset for single - side trading; expand the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell the wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core View**: The sugar price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic due to the large increase in imports in December. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic sugar price will maintain a volatile trend [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider low - buying and high - selling in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Vegetable Oil - **Core View**: The possible resumption of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade may increase the supply, and the vegetable oil market will continue to fluctuate [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Black Metals Steel - **Core View**: The demand has support, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment may affect the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price may be under pressure in a volatile manner for single - side trading; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short coil - rebar spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core View**: The driving force is not obvious, and they will continue to fluctuate. The spot price increase is difficult to sustain [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate and operate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [63]. Iron Ore - **Core View**: The market expectation is repeated, and the iron ore price is treated with a bearish attitude at high levels due to the weakening of the domestic fundamentals [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lightly short at high levels for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [66]. Ferroalloys - **Core View**: After adjustment, the bottom support is strong. Although affected by the overall market adjustment, the alloy valuation is not high, and the cost support is firm [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider as a long - position allocation when the price is low for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options when the price is high for options [70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Core View**: Affected by multiple factors such as macro, policy, and emotion, the price fluctuates greatly. Silver may maintain a high - level and high - volatility pattern, and gold is relatively more stable [73][74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for Shanghai gold; protect profits for Shanghai silver. Use the bull call spread strategy for options [74]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core View**: The tariff expectation has failed, and they are in high - level oscillations. Platinum has stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long platinum at low levels; wait and see for palladium; wait and see for arbitrage and options [77]. Copper - **Core View**: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic market has entered the inventory accumulation period, and the LME inventory will increase [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to profit protection in the short term and control positions; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - **Core View**: It runs weakly. The increase in warehouse receipts and the downward trend of cost drag the price [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core View**: The market sentiment cools down, and the aluminum price回调. There are uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be vigilant against the callback risk in the short term and be optimistic in the medium term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][86]. Shipping Container Shipping - **Core View**: The spot freight rate shows an inflection point, and there are differences in the market's view on the strength of the rush. The large - scale resumption of shipping on the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [110][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; go long 6 - 10 contracts for cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price is low [113]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core View**: The geopolitical premium fades, and the oil price may be under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely [115]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [116]. Asphalt - **Core View**: The supply and demand are weakly operating, and the price is in high - level oscillations due to the large fluctuation of crude oil cost [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for single - side trading; pay attention to the BU4 - 6 cash - and - carry arbitrage; wait and see for options [119]. Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The geopolitical risk fluctuates greatly, and the single - side fluctuation of fuel oil increases. The high - sulfur fundamentals are expected to be weakly stable in the first quarter [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillations, be vigilant against geopolitical risks for single - side trading; pay attention to the FU59 cash - and - carry arbitrage; wait and see for options [121].