1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily outlooks and analysis for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has a specific trend judgment, such as gold continuing to reach new highs, silver experiencing a pull - back after a spike, and many commodities showing wide - range oscillations [2][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to continue reaching new highs, with positive price trends driven by factors like geopolitical events and market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][8]. - **Silver**: After the spot contradiction eases, the price is expected to pull back after a spike, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][6][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot premiums support prices. Despite a slight decline in the futures price, the overall price is expected to be stable. The trend intensity is 0 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is an internal - external differentiation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][13]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventories limits price declines. The trend intensity is 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend intensity is 0 [2][19][21]. - **Aluminum**: It has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [2][22][24]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and nickel prices oscillate at a low level. Stainless steel is pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with its downward movement limited by cost. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [2][25][27]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Due to supply shortage expectations, prices have risen significantly [2][5]. - **Propylene**: Cost supports a rebound, but supply - demand pressure remains [2][5]. - **PVC**: The trend is weak [2][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [2][5]. - **PTA and p - Xylene**: Both are expected to be weak in the medium term. MEG is recommended for a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [2][5][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Tax increases support B50, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support [2][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [2][5]. - **Corn**: It has rebounded [2][5]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased year - on - year [2][5]. - **Cotton**: It has a slight rebound [2][5]. - **Eggs**: They oscillate weakly [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Supply is postponed, and the price center continues to decline [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [2][5]. Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates in a wide range, with the trend intensity of 0 [2][36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Both oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][39][40]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Cost provides bottom - support, and they oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][44][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][49][51]. - **Logs**: They oscillate repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][52][56]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory reduction accelerates, and the number of warrants continues to decrease, resulting in a strong - side oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [2][28][30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It maintains a range - bound oscillation pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][31][34]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][32][34].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the changes in metal and rubber inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the week of October 17, with copper inventory increasing by 550 tons, aluminum decreasing by 2,749 tons, zinc increasing by 2,677 tons, lead increasing by 1,785 tons, nickel increasing by 1,300 tons, tin decreasing by 188 tons, and natural rubber decreasing by 7,282 tons [1] Group 2 - Copper inventory saw an increase of 550 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory experienced a significant decrease of 2,749 tons [1] - Zinc inventory increased by 2,677 tons [1] - Lead inventory rose by 1,785 tons [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,300 tons [1] - Tin inventory decreased by 188 tons [1] - Natural rubber inventory saw a notable decrease of 7,282 tons [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of Yuguang Gold Lead, which fell by 5.01% to 14.22 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.115 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 6.91%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 15.504 billion CNY [1] - Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. is located in Jiyuan City, Henan Province, and was established on January 6, 2000, with its listing date on July 30, 2002. The company primarily engages in non-ferrous metal smelting and sales of chemical raw materials, precious metal smelting, and sales of gold and silver products [1] - The main business revenue composition includes silver products (25.90%), copper products (25.75%), lead products (21.74%), gold products (21.38%), antimony products (1.66%), zinc products (1.65%), other products (1.27%), and sulfuric acid (0.66%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Yuguang Gold Lead, a fund under Yongying Fund ranks among the top shareholders. The Gold Stock ETF (517520) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the second quarter, holding 4.8222 million shares, accounting for 0.44% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating loss of approximately 3.6167 million CNY today [2] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) was established on October 24, 2023, with a latest scale of 4.75 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 95.09%, ranking 2 out of 4218 in its category; the one-year return is 71.42%, ranking 172 out of 3865; and since inception, the return is 107.85% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Gold Stock ETF (517520) is Liu Tingyu, who has been in the position for 2 years and 66 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 9.046 billion CNY, with the best fund return during the tenure being 111.26% and the worst being -1.28% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodity futures, including agricultural products, ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, relevant information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies for each commodity or commodity group. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The market is generally stable with a fluctuating trend. International soybean pressure is high, and domestic soybean meal may decline under supply pressure. Suggestions include shorting at high points for the 05 contract, conducting M11 - 1 positive spreads, and selling call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is weak, and the domestic market is expected to follow the external trend. It is recommended to short at high points, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [18][23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by Indonesia's tax adjustment, the short - term trend is volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips, consider OI 1 - 5 positive spreads without chasing high, and keep an eye on options [25][26][27]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The pressure of new grain has weakened, and the price trend is strong. Suggestions are to go long on dips for the 12 - month corn externally, hold long positions for the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions for the 05 and 07 contracts [27][29][30]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is still high, and the price is expected to decline. A short - side approach is recommended, along with LH15 reverse spreads, and keep an eye on options [30][31]. - **Peanuts**: Affected by the weather in the producing areas, the short - term trend is strongly volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts without chasing high, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [31][33][35]. - **Eggs**: The demand is good, and the price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [35][36][37]. - **Apples**: The quality of new fruits is average, and the price is supported. The short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [38][40][41]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is expected that the US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will remain stable. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [42][43][44]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low points, and keep an eye on options [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading is good, and there is support at the bottom. It is not advisable to chase high at present, and it is safer to go long on dips. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. It is advisable to short in the medium - term, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and keep an eye on options [50][51][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: After falling to a low level, they rebounded, but the upward drive is not strong. They are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on short - term rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money put options [54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Due to the credit explosion of US regional banks, gold and silver prices have risen strongly. It is advisable to hold previous long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, there is a need for consolidation, and the long - term trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to go long on dips, hold long positions in cross - market positive spreads, and keep an eye on options [62][63][66]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus leads to a weak trend. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [66][67][68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The downstream demand shows resilience, and the medium - term trend is strong. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [71][72][73]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro panic has subsided, and the price can be bought on dips. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [73][76][77]. - **Zinc**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is advisable to short at high points, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak. Be vigilant about the price falling from a high level. It is advisable to hold short positions, and sell out - of - the - money call options [81][82][84]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at the upper edge of the fluctuation range, and sell a 2512 contract straddle [85][86][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak, testing the cost support. It is advisable to short on rebounds, and keep an eye on arbitrage [89][90][91]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range. It is advisable to short at high points and go long at low points. Wait for a full correction in the short - term, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [91][92][95]. - **Polysilicon**: After an intraday correction and stabilization, continue to go long. It is advisable to go long after a correction, hold 2511 and 2512 contract reverse spreads, and adjust the previous double - buying strategy [95][96]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supported by demand and with uncertain supply, the price is rising in a volatile manner. It is advisable to go long in a volatile market, and sell out - of - the - money put options [97][100][101]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and keep an eye on the market [101][102].

Core Insights - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index has increased by 0.47% as of October 17, 2025, with leading stocks including Silver Nonferrous, Juneyao Airlines, Shenhuo Co., Tianshan Aluminum, and Hailan Home [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF (560120) rose by 1.31%, with the latest price at 1.16 yuan [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 7.97% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being 2 months and a total increase of 12.37% [1] Performance Metrics - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF has an average monthly return of 6.02% and a 100% probability of profit in the months it has increased [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index consists of 50 listed companies with high free cash flow rates selected from the CSI 500 Index, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] Top Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index are CIMC Group, Zhejiang Longsheng, Juneyao Airlines, Yuntianhua, Silver Nonferrous, Shougang Co., Shenhuo Co., Hisense Home Appliances, Yongtai Energy, and Tianshan Aluminum, collectively accounting for 44.66% of the index [1]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 10 月 17 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and Hold [2] - Silver: Long - term Hold [2] - Copper: Long - term Hold [2] - Zinc: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Lead: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Tin: Under Pressure [2] - Aluminum: Rebound [2] - Nickel: Rebound [2] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously Bullish [2] Core Views - The overall investment opportunities and risks in the non - ferrous metals and new energy metals sectors are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, gold has strong short - and long - term investment value due to risk - aversion sentiment and long - term support factors; while zinc is expected to have limited upside potential in the short - term and is a bearish configuration in the medium - to - long - term due to supply increase and demand decrease [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: G2 relations stagnated, the US government remained shut down, and the Russia - Ukraine issue showed a negative turn, leading to a strong rally in gold and silver prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Although investors worry about gold being overbought and potential rebounds in interest rates and the dollar, the overall gold holdings are still at a low level. Long - term factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring support the long - term bullish trend of gold. For silver, there is a risk of short - squeeze in the short - term due to low inventory, and long - term demand is driven by global policies [4][2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long terms. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidated in a short - term high - level range, oscillating around 85,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Freeport - McMoRan plans to change the copper concentrate pricing benchmark, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to a wait - and - see attitude among downstream buyers. However, the demand for green copper in industries such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles remains strong [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper with trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long - term, be bullish on copper. Short - term, focus on the range of 83,500 - 88,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc stopped falling and rebounded slightly [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts an increase in the global refined zinc supply surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase in October. Weak real estate and infrastructure have dragged down galvanized zinc demand. Overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft - squeeze risk, and domestic social inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, although zinc has rebounded due to improved macro and sector sentiment and inventory reduction, the upside space is limited. Consider selling hedging at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is a bearish configuration in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for LME zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, while alumina continued to be weak [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. In October, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was high, and inventory increased during the holiday. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate increased slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect arrivals, and the market is in an oversupply situation [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, consider buying Shanghai aluminum on dips, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized slightly, and stainless steel rebounded slightly [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the supply disruption of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain, with increased inventory and production [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a gain of over 2% throughout the day [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: In September, the shipment of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased. In October, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, with domestic supply and production increasing. Overseas lithium ore supply is expected to increase in November. Lithium battery and cathode production increased in October, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in contract 2601 within the range of 74,300 - 76,000 yuan/ton [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Financial Futures - The domestic economy is in the process of repair, with potential for incremental policies to promote price stability. The recent intensification of Sino-US trade friction is likely a game between the two sides, and short - term expectations for trade talks should not be too high [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with the TACO trade having short - term stability but long - term concerns [1]. - The stock index is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with the short - term trend difficult to capture. It is advisable to try cross - variety arbitrage in index futures. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with limited upward and downward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising strongly, with medium - to - long - term bullish trends but increased short - term volatility. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9][10]. - The copper price is suppressed by demand but may rebound due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts. A "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy can be tried [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. - Zinc is expected to be in a state of uncertainty, mainly in a volatile state [13]. - Nickel and stainless steel have a weakening downward drive, with short - term volatility. Nickel ore quotas in 2026 are expected to decline, and stainless steel exports have positive factors [15]. - Tin is still bullish in the long - term, with a stable mid - to - short - term wave - like upward trend. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [16]. - Carbonate lithium has strong demand, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing. It is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon have weak fundamentals. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. - Lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside [20]. Black Metals - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. - Iron ore has been under pressure recently, affected by the decline in market risk appetite and the rise in coking coal prices. Short - term short positions can consider taking profits at the right time [23]. - Coking coal and coke are in a state of upward rebound but face negative feedback risks. Unilateral trading should adopt a volatile strategy [24]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are affected by coking coal. They are in a state of high supply and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are falling due to increased避险 sentiment. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, and is likely to continue to adjust in the short term [27]. - PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a state of relative surplus. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [29][31]. - MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. - Methanol is affected by macro - trading. After the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. - PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. - PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. Pure benzene has a difficult - to - rise and easy - to - fall situation, and styrene supply is tightening. Unilateral trading should wait and see [41]. - Fuel oil is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread, considering the supply and demand situation [42]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. - Asphalt has no super - expected performance in the peak season. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Rubber and 20 - day rubber have differentiated trends. In the short term, they are under pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have upstream inventory build - up. Soda ash has long - term supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - For live pigs, with high supply, it is advisable to short at high prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the game between farmers' sentiment and prices, and long - term attention to capacity - reduction policies [50]. - In the oilseed market, the domestic market is weakening, and the external market is in a narrow - range bottom oscillation. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand changes [51]. - For edible oils, palm oil may have limited downside, and it is advisable to buy on dips after a pullback. Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil's inventory may slowly decline [53]. - For soybeans, the 11 - contract should adjust short - positions according to spot sales, and new low - cost inventory can consider hedging in the 01 - contract [53]. - Corn and starch are in a weak state, with the corn starch market oscillating [53]. - Cotton has new cotton picking over half - way. The market is affected by the US government shutdown and consumption concerns [54]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes Sino - US trade talks, US bank credit issues, Fed interest - rate cut disagreements, and the US government shutdown [1]. - The core logic is that the domestic economy needs to focus on consumer demand, with potential for incremental policies. Sino - US trade friction is a new market focus, and the short - term outlook for trade talks is uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. The main influencing factors are Sino - US trade talks and US government policies [1]. - The core logic is that the impact of this trade friction on the exchange rate is limited, and the RMB is expected to remain stable [1]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of the stock index, with large - cap indexes rising and small - cap indexes falling. Trading volume decreased, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The core view is that short - term trends are difficult to capture, and cross - variety arbitrage in index futures can be tried. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a volatile bond market, with some varieties rising and some falling. Trading volume decreased significantly [3]. - The core view is that the bond market lacks momentum, with limited upward and downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The previous trading day saw the shipping index futures price first decline and then oscillate at a low level [4]. - The core view is that the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - The previous trading day saw a strong rise in precious metals prices, with a decline in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and other related assets. This reflects increased financial market risks in the US [7]. - The core view is that gold and silver prices are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term but volatile in the short - term. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9]. Copper - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of copper prices in different markets. The supply side has some maintenance situations, and the demand side suppresses price increases [10][11]. - The core view is that the expectation of interest rate cuts may drive copper prices to rebound. It is advisable to try a "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day saw different trends in aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices, while alumina is in a state of oversupply [11][12]. - The core view is that aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw zinc prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is relatively stable domestically and has some production cuts overseas. Low inventory provides support [12][13]. - The core view is that the direction of zinc prices is unclear, and it is mainly in a volatile state [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day saw a slight rise in nickel and stainless - steel prices. The macro - environment has expectations of interest rate cuts and some easing of Sino - US tariffs. The supply and demand of nickel ore and stainless steel have different trends [14][15]. - The core view is that the downward drive of nickel and stainless steel is weakening, with short - term volatility. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [15]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin prices opening low and then rising. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is still bullish [16]. - The core view is that it is advisable to hold long positions for those already in the market and continue to observe for those not yet in [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day saw an increase in carbonate lithium futures prices. The market demand is strong, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing [16]. - The core view is that it is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw different trends in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices. The supply and demand of the industrial silicon industry chain are general, and the polysilicon market is affected by news [17][18]. - The core view is that industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. Lead - The previous trading day saw lead prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is affected by silver prices and raw - material restrictions, and the demand side has some export potential. Inventory may increase in the short term [19][20]. - The core view is that the upside of lead prices is limited [20]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a rebound in rebar with reduced positions, and hot - rolled coils performed weaker. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the de - stocking speed is slower than in previous years [22]. - The core view is that the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a continuous decline in iron ore prices. The increase in coking coal prices has squeezed iron ore prices, and the inventory has increased [23]. - The core view is that iron ore is under short - term pressure, and it is advisable to take profits on short positions at the right time [23]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke prices oscillating strongly. The coking coal market is facing a situation of tight supply and potential negative feedback risks [23][24]. - The core view is that the rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. It is advisable to adopt a volatile strategy on the unilateral side [24]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The previous trading day saw an increase in ferroalloy prices affected by coking coal. The industry is facing a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [25]. - The core view is that there is no obvious upward drive in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in crude oil prices. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, with increased避险 sentiment [27]. - The core view is that the market is likely to continue to adjust in the short term, and the downward risk is the focus [27]. PTA - PX - The supply of PX is expected to increase in October, with a tight - balance or slight inventory - build - up situation. PTA supply has some changes, and demand is seasonally strong but not as good as in previous years [29][30]. - The core view is that PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [31]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased. The supply side has changes in various devices, and demand is in a state of seasonal improvement but not strong [31][32]. - The core view is that it is mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. Methanol - The previous trading day saw methanol prices at a certain level. The inventory of methanol ports has increased after the holiday, and it is affected by Iranian shipments and Sino - US trade [33]. - The core view is that after the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. PP - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PP prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to improved profits, while the demand side is "off - peak" [35][36]. - The core view is that PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. PE - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PE prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to device restarts and potential imports, while the demand side is slow to recover [38][39]. - The core view is that PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The previous trading day saw an increase in pure benzene and styrene prices. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and styrene supply is tightening [40][41]. - The core view is that they are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [41]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply of fuel oil is tightening, and the demand is in a state of change. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread [42]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw low - sulfur fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. Asphalt - The previous trading day saw asphalt prices at a certain level. The supply of asphalt is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. Inventory has changed in structure [43]. - The core view is that the peak season has no super - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. Rubber and 20 - Day Rubber - The previous trading day saw a differentiation in rubber prices, with 20 - day rubber rebounding. The macro - environment and supply - demand have certain pressures, but the price of 20 - day rubber delivery products is firm [43]. - The core view is that in the short term, there is pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash inventory has increased, with long - term supply pressure. Glass inventory is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. - The core view is that soda ash is affected by supply pressure, glass is restricted by inventory and demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the production changes in Kazakhstan's metal industry, with refined copper output increasing by 1.2% year-on-year to 355,305 tons, while refined zinc production decreased by 3% to 193,859 tons, and alumina and unprocessed aluminum production fell by 0.8% to 1,345,312 tons [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the challenges faced by China's copper industry, including rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the integration of "Party Building + Business" to support industrial upgrades and high-quality development, focusing on tailored financing solutions for key sectors such as agricultural processing, public transport, chemical production, and non-ferrous metal smelting [1] Group 2 - A specific case highlights a food company in Binzhou, a national key leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization, which processes 2 million tons of wheat annually and is undergoing a smart and green transformation of its production line [2] Group 3 - The bank's client manager quickly acted upon understanding the company's needs, utilizing innovative product solutions to complete a 5-year fixed asset loan process in just 20 days, enabling the company to save and increase production of high-quality flour by 27,000 tons and wheat protein powder by 4,300 tons annually [3] Group 4 - The bank has approved a total of 507 million yuan in equipment procurement loans across various industries, including public transport, chemical production, and non-ferrous metal smelting, to support green development initiatives [4] Group 5 - Future plans include increasing financial support for rural revitalization and green economy initiatives, continuously innovating financial products and service models to address corporate funding challenges and promote transformation and upgrading [5]