Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Various commodities in the market show different trends and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be strong, some are in a tight - balance or weak situation, and investors should adjust their strategies according to different market conditions [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Daily Selections - **Tin**: With strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong this year. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor US interest rate decisions and supply - side changes [2] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [4] - **Corn**: The supply is increasing, and the futures price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to the continuity of shipments [5] Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The stock index opened low and closed low, while the ChiNext and STAR Market showed an upward trend. The market is affected by domestic and overseas policies and capital flows. Consider a bullish spread strategy on CSI 1000 put options on dips [6][7][8] Bond Futures - Bond futures rose across the board. The market may return to a volatile state in the short - term. Temporarily observe and focus on the central economic work conference. Consider participating in bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [9][10][11] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals generally rose, with silver hitting a new high. Gold may oscillate around $4,200. Be cautious when chasing high on silver. Consider a low - buying strategy for platinum [12][13][14] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index showed an upward trend. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [16] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global inventory imbalance drives price increases. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be closed on rallies. Pay attention to inventory changes and squeeze risks [17][18][21] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Short - term traders can consider light - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options [22][23] - **Aluminum**: Affected by macro factors, prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may pull back. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory changes [24][26][27] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a high level. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [27][28][29] - **Zinc**: TC is falling, and exports are improving the supply - demand structure. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and inventory changes [29][30][33] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to be strong. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [33][34][37] - **Nickel**: The surplus is narrowing, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to macro and industrial policies [37][38][39] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply pressure is slightly relieved, but demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate and repair. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material prices [40][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of divergence, and prices are expected to oscillate widely. Observe the market [44][45][46] - **Polysilicon**: Affected by the news of the establishment of a storage platform, futures prices are rising. However, demand is weak, and prices may fall. Observe the market [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are falling. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing positions [50][51][52] Black Metals - **Steel**: Raw material price drops drag down steel prices. Consider closing long - rebar short - iron - ore positions and continue to hold the strategy of narrowing the hot - rolled and rebar spread [52][53][56] - **Iron Ore**: Iron production is falling, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies [58][59] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [60][64] - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is an expectation of further cuts. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [65][67][68] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The USDA report is lackluster, and the domestic supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to domestic procurement trends [69][70][71] - **Pig**: Spot prices are stabilizing, and the futures market may be slightly strong. However, the overall supply pattern remains unchanged [72][73][74] - **Corn**: Supply is increasing, and the price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to shipment continuity [75][76] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate weakly. Observe the market [77][78] - **Cotton**: The international cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate within a range [79][80] - **Egg**: Supply is in excess, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside is limited [83] - **Oil**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices are affected by various factors and are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Indian procurement and MPOB reports [84][85] - **Jujube**: Supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to downstream sales [87] - **Apple**: The trading volume is slow, and the price is stable. Observe the market [88] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Supply may shrink in the medium - term, and demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6,600 - 7,000 yuan/ton [89][90] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider a short - term oscillation range of 4,500 - 4,800 yuan/ton and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread [91][92][93] - **Short - Fiber**: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. Follow the PTA strategy and consider compressing processing fees on rallies [94] - **Bottle Chip**: Supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak. The price is expected to follow the cost and compress processing fees. Consider a short - term strategy of compressing processing fees [96][97] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is increasing, but domestic production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing the EG1 - 5 reverse spread [98] - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is limited. It may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Pay attention to domestic device changes [99][100] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [101][102] - **LLDPE**: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Observe the inventory and basis [103] - **PP**: Supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract has pressure. Pay attention to PDH profit expansion [104] - **Methanol**: The basis is strong, and trading is okay. Consider reducing the 05MTO position [104] - **Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. Hold short positions [105][106] - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak at the bottom [108] - **Soda Ash**: Production is high, and supply is in excess. Hold short positions [109][110] - **Glass**: Spot prices are weakening, and the market has pressure. Treat it bearishly [110][111] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The price is expected to oscillate [112][113] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supply in the upstream and mid - stream is abundant, and the price is expected to face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies [114][116]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is characterized by volatility, with different commodities affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical events. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, testing the 3900 - point support and confirming the breakthrough direction of the triangular consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has eased but remains cautious. It is advisable to go long on the TL contract on dips and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities for the TF contract [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The bullish factors have limited impact, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, it is likely to move sideways at a low level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and sell put options at a low level [30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and short on rallies, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the market is expected to continue to fall. It is recommended to go long on the 03 contract on dips and short on rallies, conduct 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [38]. - **Hogs**: The short - term pressure has improved, but the overall supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [41]. - **Peanuts**: The market has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [44]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the near - term contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [48]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in a range and the Zhengzhou cotton to be strong in the short term, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The market sentiment is volatile, and the steel price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the start of winter storage. It is recommended to expect the coking coal to oscillate, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [60]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a bearish view. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost provides support, but the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to expect the market to oscillate at the bottom, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level, and silver may remain strong. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips, go long on silver cautiously on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are following the strength of gold and silver. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, stay on the sidelines for palladium, conduct long platinum - short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for platinum [70]. - **Copper**: The short - term profit - taking of funds has occurred, but the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to take profits on long positions on rallies, pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, and stay on the sidelines for options [74]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be under pressure before the expiration of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [78]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price has fallen due to the departure of funds before the interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [82]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price has fallen with the aluminum price due to macro - expectations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the narrowing of the AD - AL spread during the aluminum price correction, and stay on the sidelines for options [84]. - **Zinc**: The market is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [87]. - **Lead**: The price has risen and then fallen. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [90]. - **Nickel**: The price may still face downward pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to expect a downward - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to expect a low - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Shihezi silicon plants have not significantly reduced production, and the short - term trend is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Polysilicon**: With the establishment of the platform company, it is recommended to buy on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and use the strategy of buying both call and put options [100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has returned to the spotlight, and the price continues to correct. It is recommended to buy after the mid - term correction, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the 2605 contract on rallies [102]. - **Tin**: The price has retreated from a high level, waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to wait and stay on the sidelines for options [105]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK WK52 price has slightly decreased, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions in the EC2602 contract and conduct 2 - 4 cash - and - carry arbitrage and take profits on rallies and then stay on the sidelines [108]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the oil price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for gasoline, be bearish on diesel, and expect a weak contango for crude oil. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. - **Asphalt**: There are signs of winter storage, and the price is in a dilemma. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2601 contract [113]. - **Fuel Oil**: Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have weak fundamentals. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, have a neutral view on low - sulfur cracking and a bearish view on high - sulfur cracking, and stay on the sidelines for options [116]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price has strong resistance to decline, and the HH price continues to correct. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, sell call options for TTF, sell out - of - the - money call options and buy out - of - the - money put options for HH [118]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply remains abundant, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, conduct TA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call and put options [120]. - **BZ & EB**: Pure benzene supply is loose, and the styrene basis has weakened. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [123]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory has a de - stocking pressure, and the price is falling. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [127]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling both call and put options [129]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: The supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling both call and put options [132]. - **Propylene**: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [133]. - **Plastic PP**: PE inventory has marginally increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in the L2601 contract, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2601 contract, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [136]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [141]. - **PVC**: The price continues to decline. It is recommended to expect a weak - rebound trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [144]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, pay attention to the 05 contract short - soda - long - glass spread opportunity, and stay on the sidelines for options [147]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to expect a weak trend, pay attention to the 05 contract short - soda - long - glass strategy opportunity, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [150]. - **Methanol**: The price is declining weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 05 contract long opportunity, conduct 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [154]. - **Urea**: Low - price transactions are acceptable. It is recommended to expect a weak trend in the short and medium terms, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [157]. - **Pulp**: Demand has not improved, and the market is weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [160]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can go long slightly near the previous low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and pay attention to 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Stay on the sidelines for options [163]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply pressure remains, and the market has limited rebound momentum. It is recommended to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [166]. - **Natural Rubber**: The growth rate of the predicted natural rubber production in October by the rubber alliance has slowed down. It is recommended to reduce positions in the RU01 contract, stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract, hold long positions in the NR 02 contract, conduct RU2605 - NR2605 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [170]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The crude - oil cost support has been declining. It is recommended to go long slightly in the BR 02 contract, stay on the sidelines for BR2602 - NR2602 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [174].

株冶集团近日发布公告称，公司将于2025年12月26日召开2025年第四次临时股东会，现场会议于当日 15:00在湖南省株洲市天元区衡山东路12号株冶集团会议室举行。网络投票通过中国证券登记结算有限 责任公司持有人大会网络投票系统进行，时间为2025年12月25日15:00至12月26日15:00。本次会议审议 包括2026年度日常关联交易预计、商品期货套期保值及外汇衍生品业务相关议案。股权登记日为2025年 12月22日，A股股东可参会。涉及关联股东需回避表决的议案为日常关联交易预计。 截至2025年12月9日收盘，株冶集团（600961）报收于14.43元，较前一交易日下跌4.69%，最新总市值 为154.82亿元。该股当日开盘15.15元，最高15.15元，最低14.38元，成交额达3.98亿元，换手率为 3.62%。 最新公告列表 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 《株冶集团独立董事专门会议决议》 《株冶集团关于2026年度公司开展商品期货套期保值业务和外汇衍生品业务的公告》 《株冶集团关于开展商品期货套期保值 ...

市场等待本周美联储议息会议，港股三大指数今日再度走低，恒指及国指均跌超1%，恒科指数一度跌 超2%。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.29%或331.13点，报25434.23点，全日成交额为2102.36亿港元；恒生国 企指数跌1.62%，报8936.41点；恒生科技指数跌1.9%，报5554.68点。 中金指出，关于近期港股为何在三地中走得更弱，资金面上可以找到一些解释：1）南向过去几周持续 萎缩，港股不在基准的话可能导致调仓；对比之下，港股IPO 一点不少，且上半年集中上市的大票纷纷 到了6个月解禁期；2）日央行下周加息担忧挥之不去；3）美联储本周虽然降息，但觉得也很难鸽派， 所以美债利率不降反升，诸如此类。 蓝筹股表现 药明生物(02269)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨1.88%，报33.56港元，成交额14.34亿港元，贡献恒指3.64点。 交银国际指，2025年CXO整体订单和业绩复苏势头明显。该行预计，随着下游融资边际改善+出海热潮 带动上游景气度逐步进一步回升，2026年板块有望维持较快的业绩增速。但在美国药品相关监管收紧、 新药研发难度升级的长期大趋势下，行业整合或才刚拉开序幕，未来将继续淘汰落后产能及企业 ...

新华财经北京12月9日电（罗浩）沪深两市三大股指9日早间普遍低开，开盘后表现分化。沪指早盘期间 窄幅整理，午后波动下行，尾盘再呈窄幅整理态势，收盘时小幅下跌。深成指盘初冲高回落后在上一交 易日收盘点位附近宽幅整理，至午间收盘时小幅上涨，午后波动下行，尾盘小幅反弹，至收盘时仍小幅 下跌。创业板指盘初上涨幅度较大，早盘盘中在相对高位宽幅震荡，午后调整至平盘位置后震荡反弹， 收盘时显著上涨。 9日，通信设备股整体涨幅靠前，尤以CPO概念股表现强势。当日，元器件、船舶、PVDF概念、福建 自贸区、PCB概念、银行、乳业等板块亦有显著上涨。受中国中冶拟出售资产收于跌停、铝业股普遍显 著调整影响，有色金属股整体跌幅靠前。分散染料、海南自贸区、钢铁、医美概念、仿制药等板块亦有 显著调整。 截至收盘，沪指报3909.52点，跌幅0.37%，成交额约7812亿元；深成指报13277.36点，跌幅0.39%，成 交额约11228亿元；创业板指报3209.60点，涨幅0.61%，成交额约5350亿元；科创综指报1602.39点，跌 幅0.34%，成交额约1791亿元；北证50指数报1401.73点，跌幅1.72%，成交额约139亿 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a potential "electricity revolution" driven by the explosion of AI computing power, with data center power concepts gaining strength. Companies like Oulutong have seen over a 10% increase, along with others such as KOTAI Power, KWH Data, Aike Cyber, Zhongheng Electric, and Magmi Tech also experiencing gains. This sector may represent a short-term speculative opportunity for funds [1] - The Fujian sector remains active, with Anji Food achieving six consecutive trading limits, and several other stocks like Longzhou Co. and Shuhua Sports also showing strong performance with multiple consecutive limits. This indicates a bullish trend in the region [1] - The non-ferrous copper sector continues to decline, with companies like China Metallurgical Group, Hainan Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum leading the downturn. The underlying reasons for this trend raise questions about the viability of high-copper-content stocks [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为163.00美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至23130元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至23030元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-30元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至23010元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-08沪锌主力合约开于23190元/吨，收于23285元/吨，较前一交易日225元/吨，全天交易日成交 180254手，全天交易日持仓108666手，日内价格最高点达到23335元/吨，最低点达到22965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-08，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.60万吨，较上期变化-0.43万吨。截止2025-12-08，LME 锌库存为57750吨，较上一交易日变化2375吨。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 矿端TC持续下滑趋势不改，冶炼厂原料库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers detailed analyses and outlooks for various futures products, encompassing financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions for each product based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, market sentiment, and macro - economic policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in certain sectors is stable. A bullish stance on tin prices is recommended, with existing long positions to be held and additional long positions to be added on price pullbacks [2]. - **Corn**: The corn market is under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. The short - term outlook is for a downward trend, but the decline may be limited. Short - term trading is advised [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventories are continuously increasing, and market sentiment is bearish. EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [4]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. A bearish view on coking coal is maintained, with a recommended trading range of 1000 - 1150. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is suggested [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The A - share market rallied on Monday, with most major indices rising. TMT sectors were particularly strong, while cyclical sectors corrected. - **News**: The Politburo meeting proposed a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026. Overseas, Trump ordered an investigation into the US food supply chain. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume increased by over 300 billion yuan, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the upcoming Fed meeting and the expected rate cut, it is recommended to lightly and gradually build a bullish spread on CSI 1000 put options on price pullbacks [6][7][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year contract declined, while the 10 - year contract rose slightly. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality and effectiveness of policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to temporarily observe the market. If market sentiment improves, consider going long on Treasury bond futures with maturities of less than 10 years. A curve - steepening strategy is also suggested [9][10][12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US inflation expectations were stable, and employment data improved. Japan's GDP contracted in Q3. The Fed's "shadow chairman" was less dovish than expected, leading to a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields. Precious metals prices continued to fluctuate. - **Outlook**: Gold prices are expected to trade sideways around $4200. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides is recommended. Silver prices are also expected to be range - bound. Platinum prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term but may be affected by short - term fluctuations in gold and silver prices [13][14][15]. Shipping Index (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - **Index**: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and other related indices showed a downward trend. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's PMI was above 50, while the US manufacturing PMI was below 50. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term sideways movement [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level and volatile. Supply concerns are growing, and demand has weakened at high prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long - term and take profits on short - term long positions when prices are high [19][20][23]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a weak downward trend, with high supply and inventory. It is expected to trade at the bottom, and short - term traders can consider going long on dips or selling out - of - the money put options [24][25][26]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback at high prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory changes [26][27][28]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to trade in a narrow range at a high level. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are at a high level and volatile. Export demand has tightened the spot market. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC inflection point and changes in refined zinc inventories [31][32][35]. - **Tin**: The fundamental outlook is strong, and prices are expected to remain strong. Existing long positions should be held, and additional long positions can be added on dips [35][37][38]. - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to macro - economic expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [38][39][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is expected to recover through oscillations. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production cuts and raw material price changes [41][42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is expected to trade in a wide range. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44][45][48]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to trade at a high level and may decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [49][50][51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to trade at a low level and may decline slightly. If there are existing long positions, they can be held [52][53][54]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are affected by falling raw material prices. A strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended [54][55][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to weaken. A strategy of shorting the 2605 contract on rallies is recommended [59][60]. - **Coke**: Coke prices are expected to decline. A bearish view is maintained, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is recommended [61][62][63]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic meal market is in a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. The market is expected to be weak, but the basis may strengthen [64][65][68]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are showing signs of stabilization and rebound. The futures market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term [69][70]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. Short - term trading is advised [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a bearish situation, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly [74]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is at the bottom and trading sideways, and the domestic cotton price is expected to trade within a range [76][77]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be weak but with limited downside potential [79]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are expected to trade sideways, and soybean oil prices are expected to decline slightly [80][81]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market is expected to trade in a low - level range, with limited upside potential [82]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are expected to remain stable with slow sales [83][84]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices are expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton in the short term, with a positive medium - term outlook [85][86]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to trade in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton in the short term. A TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread strategy is recommended [87][88][89]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber market is expected to see a compression of processing margins. A strategy similar to PTA is recommended [90]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips (PR)**: PR prices are expected to follow the cost trend, and processing margins are expected to be squeezed. A strategy of shorting processing margins is recommended [91][92]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [93][94]. - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term outlook for pure benzene is weak, and it may follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [95][96]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside potential is limited [97][99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are expected to trade in the range of 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton [100]. - **PP**: The 01 contract of PP is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [101]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to decline. Short positions can be held [103][104]. - **PVC**: PVC prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [105]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices are expected to decline. Short positions can be held [106][107]. - **Glass**: Glass prices are expected to be bearish [106][108]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [108][109][110]. - **Synthetic Rubber (BR)**: BR prices are expected to face resistance at the upper level. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [111][112].

文字早评 2025/12/09 星期二 宏观金融类 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.53%/-0.99%/-2.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.40%/-1.14%/-2.78%/-5.77%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.57%/-1.61%/-3.73%/-7.04%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.33%/-0.44%/-0.94%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，短 期重点关注 12 月份的中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 股指 【行情资讯】 1、中共中央政治局召开会议 分析研究 2026 年经济工作； 2、征求对经济工作的意见和建议 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 李强 通报有关情况 蔡奇丁薛祥出席； 3、乘联分会：11 月全国乘用车市场零售 224.4 万辆 同比下降 8.5%； 4、美国银行预测大宗商品将成为 2026 年最佳投资选择，因减税和降息政策将激发新一轮经济增长，大 宗商品有望表现 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-09 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金 ETF 持有量微降 金价震荡收跌白银高位回落，市场等待本周美联储降息落地， 缺乏增量利多后步入盘整阶段，如果是鹰派降息落地则面临回 调风险，市场对降息 25bp 已经充分定价。 中央政治局会议召开 宏观策略（股指期货） 中央政治局会议召开 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 11 月中国出口增速超预期 短线市场调整风险或并未完全释放，但做多胜率和赔率均较此 前上升。 农产品（豆粕） 上周豆粕库存略降 美国将我国采购 1200 万吨大豆的目标延期至 2 月底，关注今晚 USDA 月度供需报告。我国 11 月进口大豆 810.7 万吨，同环比国 内大豆供应仍然充足，豆粕库存维持高位。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中国工程机械工业协会：11 月我国挖掘机开工率为 57% 综 合 11 月中国出口大超预期，贸易顺差快速积累，前 11 月已超 1 万 亿美元，对经济形成较强支撑。出口链或成为 2026 年增长最为 强劲的板块。 钢价震荡回落，市场走弱一方面由于政治局会议并未提出明显 政策增量，市场预期转弱。另一方面在于双 ...