Market Overview - The overall market saw an increase today, with the index returning to 3.8 stars [2] - All market caps (large, mid, and small) experienced gains, with small-cap stocks rising more significantly [3] - The low volatility index reached a high valuation after today's increase [3] - Value styles, including dividends, saw slight increases [4] - Growth styles, particularly in the ChiNext board, experienced more substantial gains [5] - Hong Kong stocks also rose overall, with gains similar to those in A-shares [6] Global Market Dynamics - From last Monday to Thursday, global stock and commodity markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping by 4% [7] - Concerns about the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affected market sentiment [8] - However, on Friday, the Federal Reserve indicated expectations of a continued decrease in inflation later this year [9] - A reduction in the dollar's inflation rate is favorable for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - This alleviated short-term liquidity concerns in the market [11] - Following this, global stock and commodity markets rebounded significantly on Friday night [12] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also saw a catch-up rally after opening on Monday [13] Interest Rate Outlook - Since September 2024, the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, leading to increased global liquidity and asset valuations [14] - Global stock markets have risen approximately 30%, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have surged by 50-60% [14] - The abundance of liquidity is likely to result in significant increases in smaller assets, such as small-cap stocks and smaller markets [14] - There may be intermittent phases of liquidity tightening, as seen in April 2025 and early February [15][16] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates into 2026 [17] - A significant amount of maturing deposits in RMB will occur in the first half of 2026, contributing to overall liquidity [18] - In the latter half of 2026, the focus will shift to the trends in dollar interest rates, as the Fed will not remain in a rate-cutting cycle indefinitely [19] Upcoming Events and Publications - This week marks the last week before the Spring Festival holiday, with specific arrangements for live classes and fund operations [20][21][22] - A live session is scheduled for February 10 to discuss investment strategies for year-end bonuses and suitable investment options [24] - The performance report for the "Screw Nut" investment advisory portfolio will be released, showing a cumulative profit of 2.72 billion yuan and a holder profit ratio exceeding 90% [26] - A new book titled "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released, focusing on the growing interest in dividend index funds [26] Investment Insights - The "Screw Nut" investment advisory has developed a gold bull-bear signal board to assist investors in evaluating gold valuations [29] - A clear and objective reference can help investors remain calm and make informed decisions [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market indices related to healthcare, consumer, and technology sectors have shown positive performance, with significant net inflows into related ETFs, indicating investor confidence in these sectors. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Index increased by 2.1% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rose by 1.9% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index saw a rise of 1.7% [1] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index increased by 1.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.3% [1] Group 2: ETF Inflows - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF managed by E Fund (513040) experienced a net inflow of 600 million yuan last week [1] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF managed by E Fund (513010) saw a net inflow of 1.8 billion yuan last week [1] Group 3: ETF Details - The Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy ETF (513320) tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of 50 large-cap stocks in the "new economy" sectors, with a rolling P/E ratio of 23.9 times and a valuation percentile of 47.5% since its inception in 2018 [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, comprising 30 large-cap stocks related to technology, with a rolling P/E ratio of 22.1 times and a valuation percentile of 23.1% since its launch in 2020 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare ETF (513200) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Index, consisting of 50 liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, with a rolling P/E ratio of 32.3 times and a valuation percentile of 51.2% since its inception in 2017 [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (513040) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, which includes 30 leading internet companies, with a rolling P/E ratio of 23.8 times and a valuation percentile of 19.5% since its launch in 2021 [2]

每经AI快讯，2月9日，易思维公告，经上交所审核同意，易思维(杭州)科技股份有限公司发行的人民币 普通股股票将于2026年2月11日在上海证券交易所科创板上市。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum titled "Return of Active Equity" focused on how active equity can generate excess returns, featuring discussions among prominent fund managers from foreign asset management firms [1] Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry is currently in a phase of continuous expansion, with significant structural changes occurring within the sector [3] - The early days of AI were dominated by OpenAI, but by the end of 2025, Google’s Gemini is expected to make significant advancements, posing a strong challenge to OpenAI [4] - The company has identified investment opportunities in both domestic and overseas computing power, contributing positively to product returns [1][7] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The active equity products managed by the company are benchmarked against a composite of the CSI 800 Index (80%), the Hang Seng Index (10% adjusted for RMB), and a one-year fixed deposit rate (10% after tax) [5][8] - A strict risk control mechanism is in place to prevent fund managers from concentrating investments in a few sectors, maintaining a consistent investment style [5] - The investment approach varies depending on the lifecycle stage of technology; early-stage investments require a broad strategy, while later-stage investments focus on companies with competitive advantages [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about two main directions for 2026: the AI sector, particularly focusing on Google's related industry chain, and upstream resources, where supply constraints are expected to drive prices higher [9][10] - Concerns about an AI bubble are addressed, with the distinction made that AI differs fundamentally from the internet business model, lacking the same network effects [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job vacancies in December dropping to 6.542 million, the lowest level in over five years, significantly below market expectations of 7.25 million [1] - The number of layoffs in December reached 1.762 million, a slight increase from 1.701 million in November, with job vacancy reductions primarily concentrated in professional business services and retail sectors [1] - The JOLTS report indicates that while the labor market is cooling, it has not yet "stalled," with hiring increasing by 172,000 to 5.293 million, remaining relatively stable year-over-year [2] Group 2 - The weak labor market has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with traders anticipating the first interest rate cut to occur in June or July [2] - Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, suggest that one or two rate cuts may be necessary to address the labor market's weakness [3] - As of February 9, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 19.9%, with a 51.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by June [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations due to liquidity expectations surrounding the US dollar, particularly after Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, who supports significant balance sheet reduction and emphasizes the independence of the central bank [1] - The A-share market adjusted in response to international market influences, with investor sentiment turning cautious and trading volume significantly shrinking, averaging below 24,000 billion yuan [1] - The major market focus last week was on consumer goods and the new energy sector, with large-cap blue-chip stocks showing relative resilience while small-cap and technology stocks underperformed [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index entered a consolidation phase after a period of continuous rebound, characterized by sector differentiation and rapid industry rotation, alongside declining trading volume [2] - The current market phase requires attention to whether the index can maintain its position above the 5-day moving average [2]

每经AI快讯，澜起科技(06809.HK)首挂上市，公告显示，每股定价106.89港元，共发行6589万股份，每 手100股，所得款项净额约69.05亿港元。截至发稿，涨57.17%，报168港元，成交额9.75亿港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market adjusted, with a decline in risk appetite. Weighted indices were relatively resilient. The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, communications, and electronics sectors led the losses. The core driver was the news of the new Fed chair appointment, which led to a convergence of easing expectations and continuous disruptions. In the commodity market, precious metals and non-ferrous sectors continued to fluctuate weakly, and related A-share sectors led the decline. In the technology theme, although some large US technology companies and domestic AI leading companies released good financial reports or performance forecasts, they failed to show stronger upward momentum due to over-optimistic expectations, resulting in a pullback after reaching a high. Funds shifted to the previously underperforming weighted blue-chip sectors, and the consumption recovery expectation before the Spring Festival led to a continuous rebound of blue-chip weighted stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, driving the weighted indices to perform strongly [1]. - This week is the last trading day before the Spring Festival. Trading may become light, and trading volume is expected to decline. Due to the long holiday and many external uncertainties, the wait-and-see sentiment among funds is rising. The market is expected to show no significant performance this week, and the style may still focus on high-to-low switching. However, the domestic policy continues to support the market, and there are policy expectations for the upcoming Two Sessions. The AI industry is booming, and the global monetary and fiscal easing is certain in the long term, so the market is expected to have certain support and is unlikely to have a large adjustment space. If there are no black swans externally, the stock index is expected to have a good start after the holiday. After the holiday, the market will enter the trading time for the Two Sessions and then transition to the "Golden March and Silver April" trading logic at the real economy level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Spot Market Review** - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.84%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 1.43%, Germany's DAX rose 0.74%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.81%. In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.02%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27% [9]. - Since 2025, major indices have risen, but last week, all major domestic indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.28% [11]. - Last week, industries in the CSI 300 Index showed mixed performance, while most industries in the CSI 500 Index declined. The market trading volume and turnover rate declined [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Market Review** - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, IM had the largest decline, and IC had the largest amplitude. The trading volume of stock index futures remained flat, and the open interest increased slightly. The basis of the main contracts and the cross-variety ratio of stock index futures showed certain trends [17]. - **Index Valuation Tracking** - As of January 30, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.15 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.22 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.74 times. The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 38.13 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 50.72 times [18][20]. - **Market Capital Flow Review** - The margin trading balance in the two markets and the share of newly established equity funds showed certain trends. The capital interest rate once declined last week, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [20][21]. 2. Strategy Recommendations - **Short-term Strategy** - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1-minute and 5-minute K-line charts. The stop-loss and take-profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, and 221 points/294 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy** - Adopt an interval thinking or buy on dips. It is expected that the core operating interval of the main contract IF2602 of IF is between 4524 and 4733 points; that of the main contract IH2602 of IH is between 2961 and 3098 points; that of the main contract IC2602 of IC is between 7815 and 8426 points; and that of the main contract IM2602 of IM is between 7746 and 8348 points [4]. - **Cross-variety Strategy** - Hold the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) cautiously [5]. 3. Factors to Watch - Fed policy trends and China's January monetary and credit data [3]

Economic Growth - In 2025, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5%, maintaining this rate for three consecutive years, with the total economic output surpassing 140 trillion yuan [1] - Despite external uncertainties and domestic challenges, China's economy contributed approximately 30% to global economic growth, showcasing its stability and reliability [1] Production and Industry - The stable growth in production remains a crucial support for GDP growth, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% and service sector added value rising by 5.4% in 2025 [2] - The contribution rate of industrial added value to economic growth reached 35%, with the manufacturing sector maintaining its position as the world's largest for 16 consecutive years [2] Foreign Trade - China's foreign trade exceeded expectations in 2025, with total import and export value surpassing 45 trillion yuan, achieving a growth rate of 3.8% [3] - This marks the ninth consecutive year of growth in foreign trade, supported by strong product competitiveness and supply chain advantages [3] Technological Innovation - The focus on technological development shifted towards new narratives, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing, boosting market confidence [4] - Final consumption expenditure contributed over 50% to economic growth, reinforcing the position of domestic demand as the main engine [4]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound of Moutai has ignited the entire liquor sector, with significant price movements and market reactions indicating a potential recovery in the industry after a prolonged adjustment period [1][2][4]. Group 1: Moutai's Market Performance - Moutai's stock price surged by 8.61% on January 29, marking the highest single-day increase since February 2025, and its market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan with a trading volume exceeding 26.3 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price of Moutai has rebounded over 18% from its low, approaching a critical technical bull market position, which could influence the extent of its price increase and the nature of the rebound [4]. - The price of Moutai's 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai is psychologically anchored at 1499 yuan, and if the market price falls below this level, Moutai may implement strategies to stabilize prices [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is traditionally a peak consumption period for liquor, and the introduction of iMoutai has helped stabilize prices after a previous decline [1][4]. - There is a notable increase in demand for flying Moutai during the Spring Festival, but post-holiday, consumer purchasing behavior may revert to more rational levels, potentially affecting prices [4]. - The overall liquor industry is showing signs of recovery, with first-tier brands like Moutai indicating a gradual exit from the adjustment phase, which could positively impact the pricing structure across the sector [7]. Group 3: Collectible Liquor Market - The collectible value of Moutai's zodiac-themed products is under scrutiny, with some experts advising caution regarding their investment potential, as past releases have shown significant price fluctuations [5]. - The market for zodiac-themed Moutai has seen substantial price adjustments, with the latest batch experiencing a drop from 2750 yuan to 2280 yuan per bottle [4][5]. - Comparatively, other collectible products, such as the zodiac water from Nongfu Spring, have demonstrated even higher premium rates, raising questions about Moutai's relative value in the collectible market [1]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The liquor industry has experienced multiple adjustment cycles since 1999, with the current cycle, which began in 2022, being notably prolonged, reflecting broader economic challenges and shifts in consumer demand [8][9]. - The recovery of the liquor sector is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, with expectations for a turning point in the industry by the second half of 2026 as inventory levels normalize [9].