Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It experiences wide - range fluctuations, and the disturbances at the mine end have not materialized [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has weakened [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Events include Canada's Ontario province potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesia's mining quota policy, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, an increase of 48,749 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 272,753 lots, a decrease of 27,867 lots from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Greenbushes and Pilbara released their production and sales data and 2026 fiscal - year plans [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 605,161 lots; the open interest was 242,677 lots, a decrease of 34,057 lots from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 54,705 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,900 yuan from the previous day [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will partially cancel trade tariffs on certain small - scale solar equipment imported from China [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with the short - term market dominated by macro logic. The overall oversupply pattern is still significant, and the nickel price is expected to be weak. The upstream nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, the support from iron plants and stainless steel is limited, and the battery - grade nickel sulfate price has rebounded. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2509, closed down 0.85% at 121,800, and the total open interest of the index decreased by 3,705 to 174,585 lots. [7] - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the ore price is likely to fall. [7] - The support from nickel iron plants and the stainless - steel market is limited. The cost of nickel iron plants is high, and some Indonesian production lines have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte. The stainless - steel market is weak due to the traditional off - season and high inventory. [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to rise, reaching 27,370 yuan/ton on the 29th, supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and low inventory of nickel salt plants. [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry, considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan. [8][10] - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. [9] - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and low silver usage, which can significantly reduce production costs. [9] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with a total approved storage capacity of over 1.6 GW. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - **Reality**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - **Supply - demand**: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - **后市观点**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - **后市观点**: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - **后市观点**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movements**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - **Market Outlook**: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the resonance of macro and news factors, with the policy expectations of macro - structural adjustment and supply optimization fermenting, but the logic between fundamental verification and macro expectations may fluctuate before clear policies on nickel are implemented. The nickel ore support is weakening, and the low - cost supply increment of refined nickel and high inventory in the ferronickel segment have an impact on the price [1]. - The marginal direction of stainless steel prices is dominated by macro sentiment, and the elasticity of the real - world fundamental logic is poor. The macro policy expectations on the domestic supply - side boost commodities, but a clear policy is needed for a trend - upward movement. The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to follow the macro sentiment and fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Fundamentals - **Macro and News Factors**: Macro policy expectations are fermenting, but no clear policies on nickel have been implemented. Short - term policy news from Indonesia is frequent but within market expectations. APNI suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, and the Indonesian government may change the RKAB approval cycle [1]. - **Real - world Situation**: The support of nickel ore is weakening, with the premium starting to decline in July after an increase in Indonesian quota approvals, and the fire - method cash cost has decreased by 1.4%. Refined nickel inventory is stable in the short term, but the expected increase in low - cost supply is a drag. Ferronickel inventory is high, but marginal restocking slightly boosts the price [1]. 3.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Macro and Real - world Logic**: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices. The real - world fundamental logic has poor elasticity. The macro policy expectations on the supply - side boost commodities, but specific policies are needed for a trend - upward movement [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand of stainless steel shows a double - weak pattern. The resonance production cuts in China and Indonesia from June to July have alleviated the over - supply situation. The apparent demand in June increased by 2% year - on - year, and the production in June increased by 4% year - on - year, while the production plan for July decreased [2]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, with an increase in warehouse receipt inventory and a decrease in spot inventory. LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: The ferronickel inventory in mid - July was 37,534 tons, up 50% year - on - year and down 11% month - on - month [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. The inventory of various types of stainless steel also decreased [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 395,100 wet tons to 9.8787 million wet tons [5]. 3.4 Market News - **Trade - related News**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - **Project - related News**: In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, entered the trial - production stage [6]. - **Environmental - related News**: Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on the verified illegal companies [6]. - **Policy - related News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year, and mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [6][7]. - **Production - related News**: Due to long - term production losses, an Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial park has suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. 3.5 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and spreads of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as the prices and spreads of various nickel - related products such as imported nickel, ferronickel, and nickel ore are provided [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - **Lead**: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - On July 23, the nickel price shifted to narrow - range fluctuations as the continuously surging varieties adjusted, indicating emerging market divergence. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and price pressure persists. With the approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. Although the ferronickel price has slightly rebounded, most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss, and the production reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, providing limited price support. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained flat. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the subsequent support from the ore end may weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - On July 23, the SHFE nickel 2509 closed at 123,370, down 0.06% from the previous day, and the total index positions decreased by 2,860 to 173,672 lots. The nickel market's excess situation remains, and price pressure exists. The supply of nickel ore will be loose, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The ferronickel price has a slight rebound, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss, and the support for prices is limited. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, and it is difficult to support the raw material end. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained at 27,250, and it is expected to stop falling temporarily. The overall performance of each industrial link is weakening, and the support from the ore end may loosen. The macro - sentiment currently dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be treated with caution [7]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far lower than the approved RKAB quota of 364.1 million tons in the first half of the year. The low utilization rate of the quota was due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance its international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria launched a 124 - megawatt/496.2 - megawatt - hour battery energy storage system, marking a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 megawatt - hours of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A Turkish research team developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency, potentially reducing production costs [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its energy and emission - reduction goals [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - optimistic atmosphere supports the continued strength of Shanghai nickel. On the 22nd, Shanghai nickel 2509 closed up 1.52% at 123,720 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index increased by 12,011 to 176,532 lots. However, the nickel surplus pattern has not reversed, and price pressure still exists. The nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the overall performance of each industrial link continues to weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro - optimism supports Shanghai nickel's strength, with the 2509 contract rising 1.52% to 123,720 yuan/ton and the index's total open interest increasing by 12,011 to 176,532 lots [8]. - The nickel surplus situation remains, and prices face pressure. As the supplementary quotas of Indonesia's RKAB are gradually approved, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and premiums and ore prices may decline [8]. - Nickel - iron prices rebounded slightly at a low level, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss at this price. After the conversion to high - grade nickel matte, the reduction is limited, and the support for prices is also limited. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, making it difficult to support the raw material end. The weak atmosphere of nickel - iron and stainless steel drags down the nickel ore end [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate continued to rise to 27,250. It is expected to stop falling temporarily under the support of low inventories of nickel salt plants and the rigid restocking demand of precursors [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In 2025, Indonesia's actual nickel ore production was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of RKAB quotas was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas such as Sulawesi. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio from B40 to B50, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT). The APNI is formulating ESG regulations in line with IRMA standards and conducting a gap analysis of 57 local regulations to enhance the international reputation of Indonesia's nickel industry [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This project is an important step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver consumption is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency. This innovation is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved energy storage project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [11]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 120,300 yuan/ton and closed at 122,550 yuan/ton, a change of 1.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 134,799 lots, and the open interest was 41,520 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened slightly lower at night, then rose rapidly and oscillated horizontally. During the day session, it oscillated upwards, slightly declined in the afternoon, and closed with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [2]. - The spot market saw an upward adjustment in the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel by about 1,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotes of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the futures market rose strongly, but the demand did not show obvious growth. The premium remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The spot trading was average [2]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,111 (551.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,876 (300) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of nickel have not improved, the nickel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The strategy for nickel is to be cautiously bullish on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,735 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 255,058 lots, and the open interest was 122,622 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher at night, rose rapidly, and then declined slightly in the second half of the night. During the day session, it rose rapidly to a new high and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [3]. - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold successively in August, and a mine has offered a quote of 1.3% FOB 31, which is lower than the previous period. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to the production cuts of smelters in local industrial parks. Currently, the nickel ore supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) has decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat compared with the previous period [3]. - There are obvious price differences in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from +23 to +28, but +24 is still the mainstream premium. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing nickel ice, and some small smelters have cut production. Some domestic smelters have also stopped production [4]. - According to Mysteel's research, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in China has remained stable at 900 - 905 yuan/nickel. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, driving most spot prices up, and the market inquiry atmosphere has improved. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 12,900 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 55 to 255 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 901.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, the stainless steel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].