Grain Prices - Grain prices remain stable, with average prices for various grains showing slight fluctuations. For instance, the average price of long-grain rice is 3.26 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.31% from last week but down 0.61% from last month and 2.27% from last year [2] - Wheat and corn prices are stable, with wheat at 1.18 yuan and corn at 1.19 yuan, both unchanged from last week [2] Edible Oil and Oilseed Prices - The prices of edible oils are stable, with 5-liter bottled peanut oil averaging 133.10 yuan, unchanged from last week and last month, but down 2.02% from last year [3] - Soybean prices remain stable at 4.34 yuan, while peanut prices have increased by 0.40% from last month to 7.46 yuan [3] Pork Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.07 yuan, down 0.18% from last week and 33.09% from last year, indicating a narrowing decline [4] - Prices for various pork cuts, such as five-spice meat and lean meat, remain stable compared to last week, with five-spice meat at 15.50 yuan and lean meat at 15.70 yuan [4] Egg Prices - Egg prices have seen a slight rebound, with an average price of 3.73 yuan, up 3.65% from last week and 3.08% from last month, although down 32.07% from last year [5] Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices continue to rise, with average wholesale prices at 2.60 yuan, up 7.93% from last week and 24.86% from last month, but down 12.46% from last year [6] - Retail prices for vegetables have also increased, averaging 3.89 yuan, up 3.73% from last week and 3.46% from last month [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Each sector has specific option strategies and suggestions based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - The overall market situation shows that oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils are in a volatile range, agricultural by - products are volatile, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidating. The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,996 with a 0.18% increase, and its trading volume is 9.95 million lots with an increase of 1.45 million lots, and open interest is 20.61 million lots with an increase of 0.91 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different quantity and open interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the quantity PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.62 with a 0.18 change, and the open interest PCR is 0.41 with a 0.04 change [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500 and the support level is 3900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared with the annual average. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 13.87% with a 0.28% change, and the annual average is 14.30% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: In terms of fundamentals, the US soybean good - rate is 68%, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import cost have corresponding changes. The market shows a weak - volatile pattern. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for selling, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean crushing volume and operating rate have specific data. The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then a rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for selling and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals show that the domestic oil inventory is sufficient. The palm oil market shows a bullish pattern with a pull - back. Option strategies include constructing a bullish spread combination for call options, a bullish - biased call + put option combination for selling, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanut kernels has decreased. The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread combination for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: The fundamentals show that the demand is average, and the slaughter volume is large. The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bearish - biased call + put option combination for selling and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is higher than expected. The market shows a bearish pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread combination for put options, a bearish - biased call + put option combination for selling [12]. - **Apples**: The inventory of cold - stored apples is at a low level. The market shows a pattern of continuous recovery. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for selling [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates has decreased. The market shows a pattern of short - term pull - back. Option strategies include constructing a wide - straddle option combination for selling and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is volatile. The market shows a bearish pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bearish - biased call + put option combination for selling and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The opening rates of spinning and weaving factories and the commercial inventory of cotton have specific data. The market shows a short - term weak pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bullish - biased call + put option combination for selling and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The import of corn is regularly auctioned, and the domestic corn price is falling. The market shows a bearish pattern. Option strategies include constructing a bearish spread combination for put options, a bearish - biased call + put option combination for selling [14].

马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚8月1-25日的棕榈油出口量为1065005吨，上月同期为 914924吨，环比增加16.4%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, and PTA all decreasing, and the output of rebar decreasing, while the operating rate of tires has increased [2][32]. - The real - estate market has weakened marginally, with the transaction area of commercial housing decreasing and the land supply area increasing [2][32]. - The price trends are diverging. Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen. Agricultural product prices continue the seasonal upward trend [2][32]. - Shipping indices have continued to decline, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI [2][32]. - In the short term, focus on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production: The heat of blast furnaces, rebar, asphalt, and PTA has all declined, and the tire operating rate has increased - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.23 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory increased by 2.27 tons [8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate decreased by 2.2 pct [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 7.52 pct [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.67 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.06 pct [9]. 3.2 Demand: The transaction of commercial housing has continued to decline, and shipping indices have continued the downward trend - **Real Estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing continued to decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased. The land supply area increased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increased [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It decreased by 399 million yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 13,800 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 22,400 vehicles [17]. - **Shipping Indices**: SCFI decreased by 3.07%, CCFI decreased by 1.55%, and BDI decreased by 4.89% [20]. 3.3 Prices: Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price rose by 2.85% to $67.73 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price fell by 6.7% to 1,141.5 yuan per ton [22]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.37%, +0.73%, and +0.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 2.1% [23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price continued the seasonal upward trend. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.25%, +1.05%, +1.89%, and - 1.30% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. 3.4 Logistics: The number of international flights has decreased, and the congestion index in first - tier cities has continued to rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [28]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: Domestic flights increased slightly, and international flights decreased [29]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to rise [29]. 3.5 Summary: The overall production heat has declined, and the prices of crude oil and non - ferrous metals have risen The summary is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the changes in production, real - estate, prices, and shipping indices, and suggesting short - term focus areas [32].

Group 1 - The new trade agreement between the EU and the US, while easing some trade tensions, highlights Europe's vulnerability and the challenges in transatlantic relations [1][2] - Several EU officials criticize the agreement as a "yielding" to the US, with Belgium's Foreign Minister stating it is not a celebratory deal and Italy's Prime Minister calling it "incomplete" [1] - France's Prime Minister describes the agreement as "unbalanced," leading to calls for the EU to utilize counter-coercion tools [1] Group 2 - The agreement requires the EU to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products in exchange for a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, increasing dependence on the US [2] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion in energy products and $40 billion in AI chips from the US over the next three years, deepening economic ties [2] - A researcher from the Bruegel Institute states that the trade agreement has significantly worsened trade relations compared to the previous year, describing it as a "disaster" in economic terms [2]

商品研究 | | | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西供应不及预期，白糖短期调整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-08-25 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5970.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5855.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15050.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.44，涨跌幅 0.00%。美棉花收 68.0，涨跌幅 0.00%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 15555.0 张，涨跌幅为-1.24%；郑棉仓单 7198.0 张， 涨跌幅为-1.87%。 结论： 白糖：7 月起，云南、内蒙古遭遇极端降水，降雨量远超常年，局 ...

在全球贸易舞台上，加拿大和美国正因为与中国的关系紧张，面临前所未有的经济压力。近期，西方国家终于意识到关税战的深远影响，尤其是加拿大。萨 斯喀彻温省省长公开表示，希望能亲自访问中国，寻求对话机会，主要是关于油菜籽问题的解决。对于加拿大来说，油菜籽产业极其重要，它不仅是该国农 业的支柱之一，20多万人的生计直接与此挂钩，年产值高达430亿加元，远超钢铁、汽车等传统产业。 不仅如此，美国和中国的贸易关系愈发紧张，而加拿大、欧盟等美国的传统盟友也开始重新审视与中国的经济关系。特别是加拿大，在跟随美国对中国施压 后，油菜籽市场却大幅受损，这使得这些盟友们开始担心惹怒中国会导致自身经济的损失。对于美国来说，虽然它一再声称要拉拢盟友一起对抗中国，但实 际上，越来越多的国家担心与中国的贸易关系受到破坏，从而放缓了对美国的支持。 中国的态度一贯明确：我们不主动挑起争端，但也不害怕冲突。如果你遵守国际规则，我们可以进行平等的商业往来；如果你采取单边主义，强加关税和制 裁，我们必定采取反制措施。对于加拿大的油菜籽问题，中国的反制显得尤为精准。加方在未经过充分考虑的情况下选择加入美国的关税战，最终导致了中 国对其油菜籽加税，这不仅 ...

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang WEI index rose to 7.14% as of August 17, 2025, up from 6.52% the previous week, marking an increase of 0.62 percentage points[1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 8% year-on-year as of August 17, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 4%[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, 2025, with a two-week average of 6%[1] Trade and Consumption - Container throughput at Chinese ports maintained a high level, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 5% as of August 17, 2025[1] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 22.7% year-on-year as of August 23, 2025, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July[2] - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August 2025[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $3,373.6 per ounce, an increase of 1.1%, while U.S. oil prices reached $63.7 per barrel, up 1.4%[2] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 8.9%, marking the largest decline among "anti-involution" commodities[2] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance reached 3.26 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 74.2% as of August 25, 2025[3] - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, with increases of 1.59bps, 4.94bps, and 5.74bps compared to August 8, 2025[3]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple U.S. food industry groups are seeking exemptions from high tariffs imposed by President Trump, citing the vulnerability of the food sector to these tariffs due to reliance on imports for various agricultural products [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Food Industry - The U.S. food industry is particularly affected by Trump's tariffs, as many agricultural products are difficult to grow domestically at affordable costs [1] - Approximately 20% of food consumed in the U.S. is imported, with 85% of seafood consumption relying on imports [1] - The U.S. seafood trade deficit reached $24 billion in 2022, highlighting the significant reliance on foreign sources [1] Group 2: Specific Product Concerns - Shrimp imports account for about 90% of the U.S. supply, with India providing over one-third of this supply [2] - The annual import value of fresh fruits and vegetables in the U.S. is $36 billion, with Mexico being the largest supplier [2] Group 3: Exemption Process and Challenges - The process for obtaining tariff exemptions in the food sector may be complex due to the lack of a defined application procedure [3] - Some food products may be exempt from tariffs based on existing trade agreements, such as those with Indonesia and the EU [3] - The U.S. has proposed exemptions for certain natural resources not produced domestically, including coffee and tropical fruits [3] Group 4: Price Implications - Without additional tariff exemptions, food prices in the U.S. could rise significantly, particularly for seasonal fresh ingredients [4] - The National Restaurant Association has warned that tariffs on seasonal produce could lead to substantial menu price increases [4] Group 5: Domestic Production Challenges - The import share of cucumbers in the U.S. has increased from 35% in 1990 to nearly 90%, indicating a shift towards reliance on imports [5] - Growing 90% of cucumbers domestically would require extensive greenhouse cultivation, significantly raising costs [5] - The food industry is advocating for targeted approaches to tariffs to support domestic production and job retention [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term due to new - season supply and cost changes [4]. - Starch is likely to remain bearish in both the short and long term because of high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [4]. - The price of sugar is under pressure in the international market, and the domestic market follows the trend with limited upward movement [7][20]. - Cotton is in a range - bound state, and its downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. - Egg prices may trigger more old - hen culling if the rebound in late August fails to meet expectations [14]. - Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year, and attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. - The pig market has short - term positive factors, but medium - term supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the port spot price of corn weakened, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in some regions. The processing profit of starch increased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, new - season corn is about to be listed, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply increase is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, the price is likely to decline under the influence of increased production and lower costs. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and low downstream demand, remaining bearish [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot prices in some regions remained stable, the basis changed, and the import profit decreased. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 196 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil is in the peak crushing season, putting pressure on international sugar prices. The domestic market follows the trend, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices dropping, limiting the upward movement of the futures price [7][20]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 155 yuan/ton, the import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 262 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a range - bound state. If there are no major macro - risks, the price is expected to have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to demand changes [10]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, egg prices in major producing areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 70 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: High temperatures in mid - July and post - plum - rain replenishment drove up egg prices, but weakening and delayed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand led to a decline in prices in early August. If the price rebound in late August fails to meet expectations, more old - hen culling may be triggered [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory decreased by 14, and the basis changed [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Apple production in the new season may not differ much from last year. The current consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Attention should be paid to the final production determination [18]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 18 - 22, 2025, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis decreased by 75 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: There are long - term policy expectations, but medium - term supply pressure remains. There are short - term positive factors such as supply reduction and consumption improvement, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [18].