Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were boosted by rising crude oil futures, breaking through the 4,200 ringgit resistance and expected to oscillate between 4,200 - 4,300 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures also maintained a strong trend, with short - term expectations of oscillating between 9,000 - 9,200 yuan [1]. - CBOT soybean oil has risen for two and a half months and may experience a stagflation correction. In China, the end of pre - school procurement and the traditional off - season have dragged down the market, and the basis may decline if soybean oil prices continue to rise [1]. - Rapeseed oil was driven up by the rebound of US crude oil and the rise of BMD palm oil but then adjusted due to news. The spot basis weakened due to low market purchasing意愿 [1]. 2. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to the conflict in the Middle East and a stronger US dollar. In China, the supply is supported by the expected reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the decline in commercial inventory. However, the lack of new orders from spinning mills and large internal - external price differences limit the upward space. In the long - term, the overall trend is expected to be stronger [2]. 3. Sugar - Globally, the bearish factors have been fully priced in. Czarnikow expects a 6.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production in India reduced. The raw sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly. In China, the short - term bearish factors have been fully priced in, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. 4. Red Dates - After the Spring Festival, the red date market consumption was flat. Futures are expected to oscillate in a low - valuation range, with limited upward space due to hedging and inventory pressure [4]. 5. Apples - The apple market is active, with good - quality apples in short supply. The inventory in cold storage has decreased, and the short - term futures price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and weather changes [6]. 6. Corn - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is tight, the North Port has low inventory, and the North China market has a small increase in supply. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, while feed enterprises mainly have rigid demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8]. 7. Meal - US soybeans are oscillating at a high level. In China, the spot market is loose, and the basis of soybean meal is falling. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 8. Pigs - After the Spring Festival, the supply of pigs has recovered, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is under pressure, and the futures price is grinding at the bottom. The rise depends on the support of secondary fattening [15]. 9. Eggs - The supply of eggs is slowly decreasing, but there is inventory to be digested. The demand is in the off - season. The egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 8,640 yuan, with a 0.12% increase. The futures price of Y2605 remained unchanged at 8,370 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan to 270 yuan, a 3.85% increase [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 12 yuan to 8,978 yuan, a 0.13% decrease. The futures price of P2605 increased by 68 yuan to 9,070 yuan, a 0.76% increase. The basis decreased by 80 yuan to - 92 yuan, a 666.67% decrease [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 14 yuan to 9,968 yuan, a 0.14% decrease. The futures price of OIROS increased by 3 yuan to 9,489 yuan, a 0.03% increase. The basis decreased by 17 yuan to 479 yuan, a 3.43% decrease [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - Soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 2 yuan to 58 yuan, a 6.67% decrease. - Palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) remained unchanged at - 22 yuan. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 11 yuan to 74 yuan, a 12.94% decrease [1]. 2. Cotton - **Futures Market**: - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 45 yuan to 15,250 yuan, a 0.30% increase. The price of cotton 2609 increased by 65 yuan to 15,320 yuan, a 0.43% increase. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 70 yuan, a 40.00% decrease [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 2 yuan to 16,396 yuan, a 0.01% increase. The CC Index: 3128B increased by 12 yuan to 16,583 yuan, a 0.07% increase [2]. - **Industry Situation**: - Commercial inventory decreased by 578.87 million tons to 0, a 100.0% decrease. Industrial inventory increased by 3.3 million tons to 89.4 million tons, a 3.8% increase. Import volume increased by 5.89 million tons to 17.79 million tons, a 49.5% increase [2]. 3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 22 yuan to 5,330 yuan, a 0.41% increase. The price of sugar 2609 increased by 25 yuan to 5,346 yuan, a 0.47% increase. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 0.24 cents to 13.71 cents per pound, a 1.72% decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: - The price in Nanning increased by 10 yuan to 5,380 yuan, a 0.19% increase. The price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5,215 yuan. The Nanning basis decreased by 12 yuan to 50 yuan, a 19.35% decrease. The Kunming basis decreased by 22 yuan to - 115 yuan, a 23.66% decrease [3]. - **Industry Situation**: - National sugar production decreased by 60.28 million tons to 689 million tons, an 8.05% decrease. National sugar sales decreased by 103.5 million tons to 270 million tons, a 27.71% decrease [3]. 4. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: - The price of red dates 2605 increased by 170 yuan to 8,980 yuan, a 1.93% increase. The price of red dates 2607 increased by 162 yuan to 9,135 yuan, a 1.84% increase. The price of red dates 2609 increased by 155 yuan to 9,290 yuan, a 1.70% increase [4]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Cangzhou's top - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,190 yuan. The price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7,900 yuan. The price of second - grade red dates remained unchanged at 6,900 yuan [4]. 5. Apples - **Futures Market**: - The price of apple 2605 increased by 304 yuan to 10,753 yuan, a 2.91% increase. The price of apple 2610 decreased by 58 yuan to 8,690 yuan, a 0.66% decrease. The 5 - 10 spread increased by 362 yuan to 2,063 yuan, a 21.28% increase [6]. - **Spot Market**: - The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 2 vehicles to 20 vehicles, a 9.09% decrease. The arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 1 vehicle to 11 vehicles, an 8.33% decrease. The arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 1 vehicle to 14 vehicles, a 6.67% decrease [6]. - **Inventory**: - The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 25.39 million tons to 527.53 million tons, a 4.59% decrease [6]. 6. Corn - **Corn**: - The price of corn 2605 increased by 5 yuan to 2,384 yuan, a 0.21% increase. The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 5 yuan to 2,405 yuan, a 0.21% increase. The basis remained unchanged at 21 yuan [8]. - **Corn Starch**: - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 4 yuan to 2,696 yuan, a 0.15% increase. The average price of corn starch increased by 18 yuan to 2,841 yuan, a 0.64% increase [8]. 7. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: - The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 3,040 yuan, a 0.65% decrease. The futures price of M2605 increased by 14 yuan to 2,843 yuan, a 0.49% increase. The basis decreased by 34 yuan to 197 yuan, a 14.72% decrease [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2,510 yuan, a 0.80% increase. The futures price of RM2605 increased by 15 yuan to 2,318 yuan, a 0.65% increase. The basis increased by 5 yuan to 192 yuan, a 2.67% increase [11]. 8. Pigs - **Futures Market**: - The price of pig 2605 increased by 10 yuan to 11,140 yuan, a 0.09% increase. The price of pig 2603 increased by 75 yuan to 10,180 yuan, a 0.74% increase. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 65 yuan to - 960 yuan, a 6.34% increase [15]. - **Spot Market**: - The price in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 10,500 yuan. The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 10,700 yuan. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan [15]. 9. Eggs - **Futures Market**: - The price of egg 04 contract increased by 37 yuan to 3,246 yuan per 500 kg, a 1.15% increase. The price of egg 05 contract increased by 31 yuan to 3,396 yuan per 500 kg, a 0.92% increase [17]. - **Spot Market**: - The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.02 yuan to 2.94 yuan per jin, a 0.73% decrease. The basis decreased by 209 yuan to - 458 yuan per 500 kg, an 83.76% decrease [17]. - **Industry Situation**: - The egg - chick price increased by 0.10 yuan to 3.30 yuan per chick, a 3.12% increase. The culled - hen price remained unchanged at 4.44 yuan per jin. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.26 to 2.63, a 9.00% decrease [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The bond market has certain pressures, and caution should be maintained [8]. - The domestic stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and long positions can be continued to hold [10]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified fluctuations, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [13]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils lack bullish drivers but are at low valuations. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities [15]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities [18]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillatory pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [20]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall surplus pressure. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider the opportunity to exit long positions on rallies [24]. - The crude oil price has a basis for rising. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [26]. - The polyolefin market price is expected to be strong in the short term, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [32]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong and oscillatory state [34]. - The urea market may be in a strong and oscillatory state in the short term [36]. - The PX price center may move up, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [39]. - The PTA price will rise in tandem with PX and oil prices, and it is advisable to operate in the low - range [40]. - The ethylene glycol price may oscillate upwards, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [42]. - The short - fiber market is still driven by the cost side, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [43]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate strongly [45]. - The soda ash market may have short - term emotional fluctuations, and the disk may return to reality in the future [46]. - The glass market may oscillate slightly and strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [49]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [50]. - The pulp price has insufficient upward momentum, and the port inventory suppresses the pulp price [52]. - The lithium carbonate price has strong downward support, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53]. - The copper price is under pressure and oscillating [55]. - The aluminum price is running strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [56]. - The zinc price is oscillating [58]. - The lead price is weakly oscillating [61]. - The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to controlling risks [63]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and events [65]. - For soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66]. - For palm oil, long positions can be considered to be closed [68]. - For rapeseed oil, a bullish trading idea can be considered [72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. - The sugar price has upward pressure due to strong domestic supply [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. - The pig price may continue to decline in the short term, and investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [80]. - For eggs, investors can hold short positions in the far - month contracts [82]. - The corn and corn starch markets may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [83]. - The log market is expected to have its industry prosperity repaired, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [86]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 3% to 155,860 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped. The domestic production in Jiangxi is still uncertain, and the supply of the ore end may be in a tight balance. The social inventory of carbonate lithium is gradually decreasing, and the price has short - term support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [53]. 3.2 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,980 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.35%. The overseas macro - environment is complex. The supply pressure at the ore end is prominent, and the electrolytic copper output increase is limited. The demand side will show a pattern of seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The copper price is under pressure and oscillating [55]. 3.3 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate to a historical high. The aluminum price is running strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [56]. 3.4 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,180 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is expected to improve, but the recovery speed may be slow. The refined zinc social inventory may accumulate until the middle and late stages. The zinc price is oscillating [58]. 3.5 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The production of primary lead and secondary lead is gradually recovering, but the consumption is weak. The social inventory of primary lead has accumulated significantly, and the lead price is weakly oscillating [61]. 3.6 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.59% to 394,100 yuan/ton. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side shows a complex picture. The refined tin inventory is decreasing, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [63]. 3.7 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 1.49% to 135,710 yuan/ton. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the real - world consumption is not optimistic, and the primary nickel market is in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and macro - events [65]. 3.8 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 0.28% to 2,843 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract remained flat at 8,370 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean import is slowing down. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range; the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly, and it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [66]. 3.9 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rebounded. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in February is expected to decline. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively high level. Long positions can be considered to be closed [68]. 3.10 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures closed higher. China has adjusted the tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. For rapeseed oil, a bullish trading idea can be considered [70]. 3.11 Cotton - The domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and the overseas cotton market fluctuated slightly. The new - season global cotton is expected to have reduced production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. 3.12 Sugar - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar oscillated weakly. India has revised its production forecast, which is bullish for the market. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the price has upward pressure [76]. 3.13 Apple - The apple futures rose to a new high, and the spot market was stable. The current inventory is low, and the quality is poor compared with previous years. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [78]. 3.14 Pig - The main pig futures contract fell 0.18% to 11,140 yuan/ton. The supply pressure in the short term is still large, and the price may continue to decline. Investors can wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [80]. 3.15 Egg - The main egg futures contract rose 1.28% to 3,396 yuan/500kg. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Investors can hold short positions in the far - month contracts [82]. 3.16 Corn & Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.34% to 2,384 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.33% to 2,696 yuan/ton. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply pressure needs to be released. The corn starch may follow the corn market [83]. 3.17 Log - The main log contract closed at 800.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.19%. The wood transportation is affected, and the industry prosperity is expected to be repaired. The log price is at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to relevant developments [86].

Group 1: Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - CME Group reduces margin requirements for precious metals, with the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures dropping from 9% to 7% and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective after the close on March 6, 2026 [11] - The Polish central bank governor proposes selling gold reserves to fund defense spending, which may further weaken gold prices. However, due to geopolitical risks, there is still demand for gold allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities during price corrections [12] - Short - term precious metals are expected to be weak, with silver weaker than gold [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed officials are optimistic about the labor market, making short - term interest rate cuts unlikely and causing the US dollar index to rise [15] - It is recommended that the US dollar will rise in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5% [17] - A - shares have risen with the improvement of global risk appetite, but the situation in Iran is unclear, and overnight European and American stock markets have resumed their downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18] - It is recommended to hold a low - position long - strategy for stock index futures and wait and see [19] 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran is ready to deal with US ground operations and refuses to negotiate with the US, increasing short - term geopolitical risks. If the conflict persists, inflation may rise, and the Fed's rate - cut rhythm may be suppressed. The US stock market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [22] - It is recommended to wait and see for the US stock market [23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations and 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The Government Work Report is slightly positive for the bond market. Bond prices are expected to rise in mid - and early March, but attention should be paid to the risk of imported inflation [24][25][27] Group 2: Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Seaborne coking coal port spot prices are stable. Supply has recovered rapidly after the holiday, but terminal demand has not started significantly. Spot prices are weak, and the market is in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to policy changes and downstream resumption of work [28][29] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Government Work Report deploys real - estate policies for 2026. The economic growth target and macro - policy intensity are in line with market expectations, with limited incremental space. The inventory of five major varieties has increased, and the fundamentals of finished products are under pressure. However, due to low valuation and cost support, prices are expected to be in a volatile bottom - seeking state [30][31] - It is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to undervalued opportunities [32] 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is weakly stable. Overseas coal prices have risen, but the domestic market is not affected, and there is a large gap between domestic and foreign prices. Considering high terminal power - plant inventories and seasonal decline in daily consumption, domestic coal prices are expected to be difficult to rise in the short term [33][34] 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazil's Natal Port will start iron - ore export business in 2028. The high inventory of finished products restricts the rebound of raw materials. Ore prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to external conflicts [35] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its forecast of Argentina's soybean and corn production. Brazil exported 7.114 million tons of soybeans in February, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The USDA will release a monthly supply - and - demand report on March 10. CBOT soybeans provide strong cost support for soybean meal, but the domestic supply - and - demand situation is not optimistic [36][37][38] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The price of palm oil has the potential to rise if diesel prices remain high, but attention should be paid to risks and avoid excessive chasing [39] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are oscillating strongly. Low inventory in ports, slow release of farmers' selling pressure, and tight high - quality grain sources support prices. However, there are risks of concentrated selling of ground - stored grain in the Northeast, weak demand from downstream industries, and potential disturbances from wheat auctions. It is recommended to trade along the trend and not chase high prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Bahrain Aluminium declares force majeure, and overseas demand has decreased significantly, with many transactions at a discount. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium - tantalum project's flotation plant construction is progressing smoothly. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are intertwined. In the short term, it is recommended to take a bullish view, but beware of order - cutting if power demand recovers less than expected [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to consider buying on dips from a unilateral perspective and wait and see from an arbitrage perspective [48][49] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and domestic inventory has increased. Zinc prices are expected to enter a stage of volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see from a unilateral and monthly - spread arbitrage perspective and adopt a medium - term positive cross - market arbitrage strategy [50][51] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - MMG's Khoemacau copper mine starts its second - phase expansion. Copper smelting processing fees are at a historical low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic and cross - market positive arbitrage opportunities [52][54][55] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The "14th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the development of artificial intelligence. The short - term supply of tin ore is gradually easing, but the supply is concentrated and vulnerable in the long term. Tin prices are under macro - level pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream purchasing and macro - situation changes [56][59][60] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The inventory of LPG ports in China has increased. The LPG market is oscillating widely. Attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [61][62] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Kuwait and Bahrain cut refinery capacities. If the Strait of Hormuz situation eases, the high - sulfur cracking spread may fall sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased slightly. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the overall trend of styrene is bullish. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the conflict and the spread of credit risks [64][65][66] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash manufacturers' inventory has continued to increase. In the medium term, a bearish view is recommended, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [68][69] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has continued to accumulate. The glass market is under pressure, and the rebound space is limited [70][71] 2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A container ship was hit by a shell. The near - month and far - month contracts of the European line have different trading logics. It is recommended to consider shorting on rallies for the near - month contract and focus on shorting the far - month contract [72][73]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [6] 3. Core View - The futures contracts of US soybeans in the external market were strong first and then weak during the holiday, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range, and the main contract was close to 1150 cents. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, mainly following the trend of crude oil, showing a differentiated performance. The war has exceeded market expectations, and the market is gradually pricing in a longer Strait blockade, which has led to excellent performance in energy and chemical products. Although there is no direct relationship with agricultural products, price transmission can occur through many channels. The overall impact of crude oil on CPI is significant, and the market is gradually moving towards inflation expectations. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable and may be more inclined to inflation expectations. Therefore, although the fundamentals are weak, soybean meal is treated with cautious optimism, and future attention should be paid to the duration of the Strait blockade [6] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market review**: The table shows the market conditions of soybean meal contracts 2603, 2605, and 2607, including pre - settlement price, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 2603 was 3012, with a change of 20 and a change rate of 0.67% [6] - **Operation suggestions**: Cautiously bullish on soybean meal, and pay attention to the duration of the Strait blockade [6] 4.2 Industry News - **USDA Annual Outlook Forum**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, with exports increasing by 125 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels and crushing increasing by 85 million bushels to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending inventory will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The Chief Economist of the US Department of Agriculture warned that production costs are expected to remain high, which will continue to squeeze the profit margin of planting [9] - **BAGE**: As of the week of February 18, rainfall occurred in the central and northern agricultural areas of Argentina. Although the distribution was uneven and the intensity varied, it significantly improved the moisture conditions of soybean crops. Currently, 75% of soybean crops are rated normal to good, higher than 68% a week ago and 68% in the same period last year; 66% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 56% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year. The proportion of poorly rated soybeans is 25%, down from 32% a week ago and 32% in the same period last year [10] 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of news about Sino-US contact is beneficial to economic and trade negotiations, and it is estimated that cotton will continue to fluctuate and rise [1] - The sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to the trend of raw sugar after the March delivery [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Bloomberg reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng are expected to hold talks in Paris at the end of next week to discuss possible business agreements from the meeting of the two leaders, which is beneficial to cotton demand and leads to a stable and strong cotton market today [1] Sugar - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India's Maharashtra state, 113 sugar mills have stopped crushing, 97 are still operating (102 less than the same period last year). The cumulative crushed sugarcane is 100.51 million tons (18.179 million tons more than last year), the sugar production is 9.5031 million tons (about 1.7805 million tons more than last year), and the average sugar production rate is 9.45% (0.07% higher than last year) [2] - Affected by factors such as increased sugarcane planting area, abundant rainfall, and improved field management, the single - yield and crushed amount of sugarcane in Guangxi have increased. The estimated crushed amount of sugarcane in Guangxi in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is adjusted to 57.5 - 58.5 million tons (2.15 - 2.5 million tons higher than the previous estimate), the sugar production rate is slightly adjusted to 12.3% - 12.4% (0.1% lower than the previous estimate), and the total sugar production is adjusted to 7.1 - 7.22 million tons (220,000 - 300,000 tons higher than the previous estimate) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The cotton sector lacks continuous upward drivers and is under pressure to fluctuate. The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the new year, and the domestic cotton price center may rise in the medium - long term [1][2] - The sugar sector is in a situation of short - to - medium - term oversupply, but the long - term supply may have potential positive factors. The current sugar price decline space is limited [4][5] - The pulp sector has a weak fundamental situation, with high port inventories, and the short - term pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,205 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,394 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,571 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - In Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of seed cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 869,000 tons of lint cotton, a 1.2% increase year - on - year. Sindh Province accounted for 52% with a 4% year - on - year increase, and Punjab Province accounted for 48% with a 1% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's outlook shows that in the 2026/27 season, global cotton production will decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption will increase by 1.2% year - on - year, and the ending inventory will decrease by 5.2% year - on - year. Domestically, the textile market is gradually resuming after the holiday, and the medium - long - term cotton price center may rise [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference. Focus on the reduction of the new - year planting area and the release of the target price subsidy policy [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,308 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [4] - In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, a 26.6% increase from the same period in 2024. The cumulative yield from April to December in the 2025/26 season was 74.7 tons/hectare, a 4.6% decrease from the same period in the previous season [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but the expected tightening of import licenses provides some support [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - to - medium - term. Focus on changes in domestic import policies [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,246 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.50%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [6] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market changed little, with only individual narrow adjustments [6] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. In terms of demand, although the domestic paper production capacity is expanding, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term due to high port inventories [8]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict has a significant impact on various commodity markets, injecting risk premiums into the oil market and increasing short - term volatility in the precious metals market. The conflict also affects the supply and demand of base metals, energy, and agricultural products. The future trends of these markets are highly dependent on the development of the geopolitical situation and relevant economic data [2][3]. - In the stock and bond markets, the A - share market is expected to maintain a relatively stable and strong pattern, with attention on sector rotation. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are opportunities for curve - flattening operations [46][47]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has led to a supply disruption, and the SC crude oil has risen by 9% to 680 yuan/barrel, with a premium of $16.6 per barrel over Brent. Geopolitical risk premiums will continue to support oil prices until the conflict eases and shipping resumes [2]. - **Natural Gas**: There is no information about natural gas in the report. - **LPG**: There is no information about LPG in the report. - **Fuel Oil**: There is no information about fuel oil in the report. - **Bitumen**: Affected by the rising crude oil prices, bitumen prices have strengthened, but the upward space is limited due to the "strong cost, weak supply - demand" pattern [22]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. The short - term volatility has increased, and the future trend depends on the development of the war. The US economic data has been released, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices continued to fluctuate. The tense situation in the Middle East has a limited impact on the copper supply chain, but it may affect copper prices due to high inventory and uncertainty [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise. Supply concerns have increased due to production cuts in the Middle East, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a slightly improved fundamental situation, but the direction is not clear in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual inventory - reduction rhythm and wait for policy and economic data guidance [8]. - **Lead**: High inventory has led to a narrow - range fluctuation of lead prices at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - reduction rhythm after the full resumption of downstream production [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel has fallen in a volatile manner. The market is mainly driven by policy sentiment. The nickel market lacks an independent driver in the short term and is gradually weakening [10]. - **Tin**: After two consecutive days of sharp declines, tin prices rebounded. The supply side is slowly changing. It is advisable to hold out - of - the - money short - call options [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate is in a weak consolidation state. The overall inventory reduction rate has slowed down, and the futures price is highly uncertain in the short term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon futures have risen, but the overall fundamental situation is poor, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [13]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have continued to decline. Although there is an expectation of inventory reduction in March, the market sentiment is weak, and the downward space may be limited [14]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rose slightly. The demand has recovered, but the inventory is still accumulating. The steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate with low trading volume in the short term [15]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose overnight. The supply is abundant, and the demand has improved marginally. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to policy signals [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the coal - chemical industry [17][18]. - **Silicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are rising in a volatile manner. They are likely to be in a strong - oscillating state, and attention should be paid to international conflict - related news [19][20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to decrease, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell in the night session. The supply is expected to shrink, and the market may rise in a pulsed manner, depending on the development of the geopolitical situation [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by rising oil prices, pure benzene futures are expected to run strongly, and attention should be paid to the development of the geopolitical situation [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost side of styrene is strongly supported, but the market sentiment is weak, and the buying intention is insufficient [26]. - **Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene**: The cost of propylene provides strong support, but the downstream demand is weak. The market trading volume has decreased [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are oscillating strongly, and caustic soda is expected to run in the bottom range [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices and spreads of PX and PTA are strengthening. The polyester industry chain is under pressure, and the price trends are affected by the Middle - East situation [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a long - term supply pressure, but there is a possibility of short - term improvement in supply - demand. The Iranian situation has multiple positive effects [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - grade chip are running strongly in the short term, following the raw materials. The medium - term trend depends on the development of the situation and the recovery of terminal demand [31]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The inventory has increased significantly after the festival. The market is trading lightly. The valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the recovery of post - festival demand [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The industry inventory continues to increase. There is an expectation of supply - demand surplus in the long term. A short - selling strategy is advisable when the price rebounds [34]. Rubber - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber**: The natural rubber supply is in the low - production period, and the synthetic rubber supply is increasing. Rubber inventories have increased. It is advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR is expected to be strong [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic vegetable oil market has risen and then fallen. The short - term market is driven by the uncertainty of Middle - East energy. The supply - demand pattern is not tight [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean supply - demand is becoming more relaxed. The oil - strong, meal - weak situation may continue. Attention should be paid to soybean import policies [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: The main contract of domestic soybeans is oscillating and adjusting. The supply - demand pattern is not tight, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [37]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn futures is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in the Northeast, state - reserve auction information, and futures fund trends [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The live - pig futures are in a weak adjustment. The inventory pressure is high, but there are potential support factors. It is advisable to go long on the far - month contracts at low prices after the premium narrows [39]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices have continued to fall in the short term. The long - term inventory is in a downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the futures at low prices [40]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. The supply is expected to be tight, but the demand feedback is general. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion and demand performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar production situation varies. The domestic sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production progress [42]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices have continued to rise. The demand in the Northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: Timber futures are oscillating. The low inventory provides some support. It is advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Pulp**: The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level. The long - term cost has some support, but the demand is general. The medium - term trend is expected to be range - bound [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, which may support the market. Attention should be paid to sector rotation [46]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures generally rose on March 4. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there is an opportunity to flatten the yield curve [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, focus on risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [11][13]. - For steel, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For iron ore, short - term high - level short positions can take profits, and long - term partial short positions can be held lightly. For double - coking, the price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines, downstream demand recovery, and international crude oil price fluctuations after the Spring Festival [15][16][18]. - For various non - ferrous metals and new materials, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, zinc is recommended to maintain a bearish view, and lead is recommended to hold short positions [24][27]. - For agricultural products, different varieties also have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to enter a volatile stage, sugar is recommended to be operated with a volatile mindset, and eggs are expected to have a limited increase in price in March [34][35][36]. - For energy and chemical products, the short - term trading of crude oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the price of fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation after continuous daily limit increases. Different chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol also have their own characteristics and trends [42][44][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th. The State Council Premier Li Qiang will deliver the "Government Work Report", and relevant personnel will interpret it [6]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer. The US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US may officially adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. The US will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [7]. - The South Korean stock market fell sharply, and the financial regulatory agency will start a 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if market fluctuations intensify [7]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO said that the company's $30 billion investment in OpenAI may be its last investment before the company goes public, and OpenAI is expected to start an IPO by the end of the year. The $10 billion investment in Anthropic may also be the last [8]. - Mediterranean Shipping Company will unload all goods bound for ports in the Gulf region at the nearest safe port and charge a mandatory surcharge of $800 per container. Maersk will temporarily stop accepting cargo bookings to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia [8]. - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [8]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025. The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and the PPI showed different changes [9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 0.69%. The market traded 2.39 trillion yuan throughout the day. The market's focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the oil and gas sector's volatility increased. The semiconductor sentiment weakened due to the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The official PMI was affected by seasonality and was weak, while the Hong Kong ratingdogPMI was strong. The continuous sharp rise in crude oil prices pushed up the bond market due to market risk - aversion sentiment [13]. Black Steel - The current order - receiving situation of steel is acceptable, but the inventory is high, especially for coils, which suppresses steel prices. The real - estate sales and new construction data are weak, and infrastructure projects have not started much. The downstream consumption of coils is acceptable, and the export and steel mills' orders are good. The supply side has low - level profits, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal fluctuates, and the overall steel price is expected to fluctuate. The recommended strategies include selling wide - straddle options and holding, taking profits on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term, and holding partial short positions in the long term [15][16]. Coal and Coke - The price of double - coking may fluctuate in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coal mines has recovered, and the demand from steel mills will increase. However, the recovery of terminal steel demand is uncertain, and there is still an expectation of price cuts for coke. The rise in international crude oil prices may support the price of double - coking [18]. Iron Alloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The current price is at a stage high, and there are negative impacts such as hedging pressure and production resumption pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions and try short positions at high prices [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The new production capacity of leading enterprises has made progress. For glass, the upstream price has loosened, and there are both cold - repair and ignition plans on the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see at present [22]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and Kevin Warsh may promote balance - sheet reduction, which will put pressure on copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long term, the global copper - mine supply is tight, which will support the copper - price center [24]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and treat it with a volatile mindset [24]. Lead - The consumption of lead is gradually recovering, and the supply recovery is slower than the consumption end. It is recommended to hold short positions [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The short - term supply increases, and the demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is valued at a relatively low level, and previous long positions can be held. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][32]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to enter a volatile stage. The global cotton output is expected to decline, and the demand remains stable. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the actual consumption and orders of textile enterprises are the key to the market [34]. Sugar - The global sugar market has a supply surplus, but the surplus has been adjusted. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and there is a replenishment demand after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to operate with a volatile mindset [35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs may stabilize, and there is an expectation of price increase in March, but the increase space is limited. The futures contracts in the second quarter are supported by the expectation of spot - price increase, but the premium over the spot is large, and the upside pressure is large [36]. Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly. The prices of high - quality products in the western region are rising, while those in the Shandong region are stable [38]. Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn price is strong in the spot market and fluctuates in the futures market. There is a certain stage pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [39]. Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The consumption after the Spring Festival is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still impassable, and the domestic crude - oil price continues to rise sharply. Geopolitical factors are the main trading line in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a great impact on global crude - oil supply. The oil - price premium is relatively high, and the increase range is limited if there is no extreme conflict [42]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices on fuel oil under the influence of geopolitics. After continuous daily limit increases, it is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. The supply risk has not been eliminated [44]. Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the price of polyolefins. It is recommended to beware of the rebound risk and adopt a bullish mindset [45]. Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between RU - NR and RU - BR [46]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to go long on dips, but be cautious about the rapid decline of energy prices and high inventory. Partially take profits on the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [48]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, which may affect the supply of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - volatile mindset, but beware of the callback caused by the shutdown of downstream MTO factories [49]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate widely. The spot price is relatively weak, and the futures price has insufficient upward drive and relatively high valuation [50]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. PVC - The short - term PVC may be bullish - volatile. The increase in oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and adopt a range - volatile mindset [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the long term [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply of LPG is abundant in the future, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. The high inventory pressure and the forced production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the focus. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under the support of the cost. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the commodity and macro - sentiment [58]. Urea - The futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to lay out short positions when the price rises [59].

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/03/05 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/02/26 2180 | 2320 | 2310 | 2460 | -22 | 20 310 | 2750 | 2860 | 67 | -69 | | 2026/02/27 2200 | 2330 | 2320 | 2460 | -30 | 10 310 | 2750 | 2860 | 58 | -88 | | 2026/03/02 2200 | 2350 | 2320 | 2490 | -34 | 20 340 | 2750 | 2880 | 61 | -67 | | 2026/03/03 2200 | 2350 | 2330 | 2490 | -23 | 20 344 | 2780 | 2900 | 77 | -87 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment of stock index futures has improved significantly, and the short - term market is expected to bottom out. Treasury bond futures show a strengthening trend due to looser funds [18][22]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal may decline, while the sugar price is likely to oscillate at the bottom. The fluctuation of the oil and fat sector has increased, and the corn and its starch futures are in high - level oscillation [26][29][32][33]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate during the two sessions, and the trend of coking coal and coke is not obvious. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to geopolitical conflicts [56][58][61]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals such as gold and silver will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and the price of copper will oscillate in the short term [66][72]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the spot freight rate of container shipping may rise if the geopolitical conflict persists, and the freight rate of dry bulk shipping is supported by overseas demand [110][114]. - In the energy and chemical market, the price difference between domestic and foreign crude oil markets has soared, and asphalt is supported by cost with a reduced supply expectation [122][125]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to decline, but the market sentiment has improved. The adjustment is expected to end, and it is recommended to go long on dips and conduct index - futures and ETF arbitrage [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher. With the central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the release of the February official manufacturing PMI, the bond market was generally strong. It is recommended to hold long positions in the T contract lightly [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The supply of domestic protein meal is under pressure, and the price may decline. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side and narrow the MRM09 spread [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price has fallen, and the domestic sugar price has corrected. The international sugar market may oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to buy low and sell high on the single - side [29][31][32]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil have changed. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and fundamentals, the oil and fat market may oscillate with increased volatility. It is recommended to consider reverse arbitrage on p59 and y59 [33][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures have declined. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on the 05 corn on the single - side and expand the spread between 05 corn and starch [37][38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is oscillating, with sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and some short - term support. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts on the single - side [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut lightly on dips and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has declined due to the off - season consumption. It is recommended to short the June contract on the single - side [45][47]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is at a relatively low level, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long - 5 and short - 10 arbitrage [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external cotton market is oscillating. The domestic cotton price has strong support below and is likely to oscillate stronger. It is recommended to go long on the domestic cotton on dips [53][54][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: During the two sessions, steel prices will continue to oscillate. The overall fundamentals of steel are weakening, but the short - term trend is oscillating stronger. It is recommended to go short on the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating greatly but without an obvious trend. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating stronger. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased, but the impact on domestic iron ore supply is small. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The profit - loss ratio of ferroalloys has decreased, and it is recommended to partially close long positions [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment has recovered, but inflation concerns still exist. Gold and silver will continue the high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and go long on silver on dips [66][67][68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The concern about re - inflation has slightly weakened, and the precious metals will oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, wait and see on palladium, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [72][73]. - **Alumina**: The overseas alumina price has fallen, and the domestic market is also under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [74][76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have affected the Qatalum electrolysis plant, and the aluminum price is expected to rise. The internal - external price difference is expected to widen [78][79][80]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise with the aluminum price [81]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may be stronger in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions with the stop - loss line raised [83][84][85]. - **Lead**: The lead price will oscillate within a range [86]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy is favorable, but the macro - sentiment dominates. It is recommended to buy on dips after the macro - sentiment stabilizes [90][92]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, the stainless steel price follows the nickel price. It is recommended to buy after the macro - sentiment stabilizes [94][96][97]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The sudden increase in electricity prices has consolidated the bottom of the industrial silicon market. It is recommended to buy on dips and try shorting after the manufacturer hedges [98]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot transaction price has driven the futures price down. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side and pay attention to liquidity risks [100][103]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk preference has decreased, and funds have withdrawn. It is recommended to go long on dips [104][105]. - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the tin price may oscillate and consolidate [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Maersk's wk12 opening price has increased. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the spot freight rate may rise. It is recommended to close long positions in the off - season contract 04 in batches [110][111][112]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The freight rate index has risen. Affected by the resumption of work in China and geopolitical conflicts, the freight rate of all ship - types has increased. The freight rate of small and medium - sized ships may be supported by overseas demand [115][116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market is trading lightly, and the EU carbon price is affected by policies and energy prices. The short - term trend of the domestic carbon price is expected to be oscillating stronger, and the EU carbon price will continue to be affected by geopolitical conflicts [117][120][121]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The situation of the war is unclear, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has soared. It is recommended to take a bullish view on the single - side [122][123][124]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks [125][126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The focus of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the near - term is on supply contradictions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks [128][129][130]. - **LPG**: The supply is tightening, and the freight rate has increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate stronger [131][133]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price is continuing to correct, and the market risk is still extremely high. It is recommended to wait and see [134][136]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has carried out preventive load - reduction measures. It is recommended to follow the cost trend on the single - side [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are many maintenance plans for styrene in March. The styrene price is expected to be oscillating stronger [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants have stopped production, and the supply from the Middle East is affected. The price is expected to be stronger with a strengthening basis [142][143][144]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost trend. It is recommended to hold long positions before the end of geopolitical conflicts and conduct arbitrage on the processing fee [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to follow the cost trend on the single - side [147]. - **Propylene**: The price of the main raw materials has risen, and the supply - demand side has support. The price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [149][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The LLDPE and PP prices have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts and conduct short - arbitrage on the L2605&PP2605 contract [152][153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is oscillating. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side and wait and see on arbitrage [156][157]. - **PVC**: The PVC price is rising firmly. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is oscillating stronger. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage [161][162][163]. - **Glass**: The glass price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies on the single - side and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [166][168]. - **Urea**: The urea price is oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range on the single - side and wait and see on arbitrage [169][170][172]. - **Pulp**: It is necessary to pay attention to the supply of European pulp. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [172][173][174]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to short on rallies and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [175][176]. - **Logs**: The external price has risen, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [176][177][179]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The El Niño index continues to cool down. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU and NR 05 contracts [180][181][182]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production increase of butadiene rubber has expanded. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract and conduct long - BR2605 and short - RU2605 arbitrage [184][185][186].