我们看好公司①全球玻纤龙头，走出周期底部，毛利率逐季修复，②玻纤需求结构性回暖，供给压力测 试期步入尾声，期待价格向上信号，③成本管控典范，产品结构+基地布局构筑核心竞争力。我们预计 公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为35.31、42.10 和45.90亿元，现价对应动态PE 分别为15x、12x、 11x，给以2025 年17倍估值，目标价14.98 元，首次覆盖，给予公司"买入"评级。 风险提示 玻纤行业需求，①风电纱：内需景气方向，2024 年全国风电设备公开招标量164.1GW、同比+90%，预 计2025 年我国风电新增装机达到115GW，对应增速31%。头部玻纤厂风电纱产品结构占比提升，其他 领域用普通直接纱产能被挤占，粗纱实际供给降低，②电子布：中游制造环节稀缺的供给新增偏少品 种，巨石在7628 电子布环节领先优势更为明显，2 月末涨价函落地较为充分，③出口：俄乌可能带来的 新建需求，及欧洲基建、新能源资本开支再启，玻纤外需敞口相对其他建材品种更为突出。 玻纤行业供给端，25Q2 是最后的压力测试期，25H2 新增产能预计将下降，随着国内需求逐步筑底回 升，中低端玻纤价格或迎来向上弹性 ...

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Performance - The performance of the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices over the past year shows a significant decline, with the CSI 300 down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1]. Industry Performance - The top five performing industries yesterday included textiles and apparel (+1.448%), beauty and personal care (+1.014%), telecommunications (+0.971%), banking (+0.897%), and diversified industries (+0.742%) [1]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing industries were defense and military (-1.17%), non-ferrous metals (-0.866%), utilities (-0.801%), steel (-0.580%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.537%) [1]. Communication Industry - The satellite internet construction in China is gradually taking shape, with significant developments in the commercial aerospace industry [10]. - On April 1, 2025, China successfully launched a satellite for internet technology testing, marking a step towards the integration of satellite and terrestrial networks [12]. - The "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan aims to deploy 648 satellites by the end of 2025 and 1,296 satellites globally by 2027, with a long-term goal of 15,000 satellites by 2030 [13]. Coal Mining Industry - China Jushi (600176.SH) reported a significant increase in Q4 2024 performance, with revenue reaching 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.49% [16]. - The company’s glass fiber yarn sales reached a record high of 3.025 million tons in 2024, driven by structural optimization and market expansion [17]. Real Estate and Construction Industry - China Overseas Development (00688.HK) ranked first in equity sales and land acquisition, with a steady growth in commercial income [21]. - The company reported a revenue of 1,851.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while its equity sales amounted to 3,107 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% [22][23]. Food and Beverage Industry - China Feihe (06186.HK) achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a proposed dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share [27]. - The company’s ultra-high-end product series continues to drive growth, with a focus on expanding its market share in the infant formula sector [28]. Chemical Industry - Shengquan Group (605589.SH) reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 9.87% [37]. - The company is expanding its high-frequency and high-speed resin varieties, indicating a robust growth trajectory [38]. Light Industry - Jiayi Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ) achieved a revenue of 2.836 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, supported by strong customer relationships [31]. - The company’s overseas revenue growth is a significant driver of its overall performance [32].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，建材行业作为与房地产高度关联的领域，自2021年起面临收 入、利润的下行压力，行业也迎来了出清和竞争格局的优化。当前，中信证券预计需求下行幅度收窄， 二阶导转正，配合"反内卷"政策导向，部分细分行业迎来涨价及经营利润的提升，超出市场预期，行业 配置价值已经显现。 配置节奏上，中信证券认为需求压力越小、既有竞争格局越好的板块，越先迎来配置机会。推荐次序为 玻纤、水泥、消费建材。市值弹性上，中信证券认为出清产能越多，后续弹性越高。消费建材行业虽然 尚未迎来利润拐点，但是底部确立，考虑到龙头企业的长期成长性和行业出清情况，中信证券认为今年 下半年后或将迎来趋势性投资机会和相较玻纤、水泥更好的市值弹性。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025年建材需求的判断：需求下滑，但二阶导转正。 基建端，随着化债工作的深入推进，地方政府债务压力得到有效缓解。一方面，有息负债增速明显放 缓，2024年全国城投有息负债41.2亿元，同比增速由双位数大幅下降至2.8%。另一方面，城投平台融资 成本显著下行，2025年1-2月新发城投债平均票面利率2.5%，同比下降0.6pct。待城投平台通过化债资金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The building materials industry, closely linked to real estate, has faced revenue and profit pressures since 2021, but is now showing signs of demand stabilization and potential profit recovery due to policy shifts and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Demand Outlook - The demand for building materials is expected to decline in 2025, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with a positive second derivative indicating potential recovery [2][4]. - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to improve due to reduced local government debt pressures and a more favorable financing environment, with a notable decrease in the growth rate of municipal financing debt [2]. - The real estate sector is experiencing significant declines in new construction and completion areas, but overall sales are expected to turn positive, indicating a potential shift in demand for building materials [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy introduced by the government aims to curb excessive competition in the building materials sector, which has seen profit margins reach historical lows [6]. - The competitive landscape is crucial for recovery; larger firms with better market positions can influence pricing more effectively, while smaller firms may struggle [6][9]. - Companies like Beixin Building Materials, with over 60% market share, have demonstrated resilience during demand downturns, maintaining profitability in their gypsum board business [7]. Group 3: Price Recovery and Elasticity - The price recovery in the fiberglass sector is leading the way, with price increases initiated in early 2025 due to better demand and competitive conditions [8]. - The cement industry, while facing weaker demand than fiberglass, has a favorable competitive structure, with significant price increases observed in early 2025 [9]. - The consumer building materials sector, although lagging behind in demand recovery, shows potential for higher market value elasticity as the industry undergoes consolidation [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The building materials industry presents structural investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" policy, with profits at a bottom and companies collaborating on price increases [12].

Group 1: REITs and Data Centers - The first data center REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, has been accepted for review on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, attracting significant investor attention due to its business model and asset characteristics [4]. Group 2: Defense and AI - Kosi Technology (688788.SH) is positioned as a leader in AI and unmanned equipment for military applications, with a strong focus on AI command and control systems, having accumulated over 20 years of core data and experience [5][6]. - The company has invested over 1 billion yuan in R&D, with a team of over 400 people dedicated to AI and military applications, indicating significant growth potential in both military and civilian sectors [6]. Group 3: Healthcare - Meinian Health (002044.SZ) is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the health checkup industry, with over 600 branches and a leading position in the number of annual health checkups [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.826 billion yuan, 12.099 billion yuan, and 13.098 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 326 million yuan, 617 million yuan, and 813 million yuan [8]. Group 4: Banking - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077.SH) is expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with projected net profit growth rates of 5.72%, 5.99%, and 6.53% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) has shown resilience with a return to profit growth in 2024, maintaining a leading position in the industry [10]. Group 5: Carbon Market and Construction - The national carbon market is expanding, with significant implications for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, as companies adapt to new carbon pricing mechanisms [11]. - Key players in these sectors, such as Baosteel and China Aluminum, are expected to benefit from the transition to greener production methods [11]. Group 6: Coal Industry - China Shenhua Energy (H) has seen an increase in long-term investment interest, with a recent stake acquisition by Swiss Life Insurance, reflecting a reevaluation of the coal sector's value [14][15]. - The company has a low debt ratio of 23.4% and plans to distribute 44.9 billion yuan in cash dividends in 2024, indicating strong cash flow and dividend capacity [15][16]. Group 7: Chemicals and Materials - Sanwei Chemical (002469.SZ) reported a significant acceleration in Q4 performance, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99%, making it an attractive investment [21]. - China Jushi (600176.SH) achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, with a strong performance in Q4, indicating resilience in the fiberglass market [22][23]. Group 8: Consumer Goods - Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) reported stable growth with a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, driven by strong brand value and product innovation [30]. - The company is expected to see net profits grow by 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0% from 2025 to 2027, maintaining its market leadership [30]. Group 9: Textile and Apparel - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 37%, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency [31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growth potential in the technology sector, particularly driven by advancements in AI and robotics, which are expected to enhance investment opportunities in the industry [4] - The report highlights the significant growth in the connector market due to the rapid development of humanoid robots, indicating a strong demand for related products [5] - The financial performance of various companies is analyzed, with specific attention to revenue changes and profit margins, showcasing the overall market trends [6][7][9][10][11] Group 2 - For Huazhong Steel, the report notes a continuous increase in the proportion of specialty steel, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [6] - China Aircraft Leasing reported stable revenue growth and record aircraft transactions, with a significant increase in shareholder profit [7] - China Jushi's quarterly profits are showing a steady recovery, benefiting from improved industry conditions and price increases in fiberglass products [9] - China Coal Energy managed to offset coal price declines through cost reduction, maintaining stable profitability in non-coal businesses [10] - NIO's short-term fundamentals are under pressure, with a notable increase in total revenue but an expanded net loss, indicating challenges ahead [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.984 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 7.36% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.892 billion RMB, down 59.90% year-on-year [1] - The report indicates that the company’s performance exceeded the mid-point of prior forecasts [1] - The company is expected to see a recovery in net profit with projections of 1.562 billion RMB, 2.016 billion RMB, and 2.319 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Segment Analysis Fiberglass - The fiberglass segment achieved sales of 136,000 tons in 2024, with revenue of 7.74 billion RMB and a net profit contribution of 0.37 billion RMB [2] - The average selling price per ton for fiberglass was 5,692 RMB, a decrease of 247 RMB year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 573 RMB to 4,686 RMB [2] Wind Power Blades - The wind power blade segment sold 24 GW in 2024, generating revenue of 8.57 billion RMB and a net profit of 0.318 billion RMB [3] - The average price per GW was 3.57 billion RMB, down 0.82 billion RMB year-on-year, with a unit cost of 3.09 billion RMB [3] Lithium Membranes - The lithium membrane segment sold 1.9 billion square meters in 2024, achieving revenue of 1.47 billion RMB and a net profit of 0.044 billion RMB [3] - The selling price per square meter was 0.77 RMB, a decrease of 0.64 RMB year-on-year [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Beike-W, highlighting its long-term positive trend despite short-term performance fluctuations [9][10][12]. Core Insights - Beike-W achieved record highs in revenue and market share in the brokerage sector, with a total transaction volume (GTV) of 3.35 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [10][11]. - The company’s revenue reached 93.5 billion yuan in 2024, up 20.2% year-on-year, with a significant increase of 54.1% in Q4 [10][11]. - The brokerage business's market share reached a historical high of 31% in the existing housing market, with a transaction volume of 2.25 trillion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Beike-W's 2024 net income was 4.06 billion yuan, down 30.9% year-on-year, primarily due to declining gross margins in the brokerage business [10][11]. - The company plans to return value to shareholders through a stock buyback of 716 million USD and a cash dividend of 400 million USD, representing 5% of the market capitalization at the end of 2024 [10][12]. Business Segments - The home decoration and rental segments showed strong growth, with revenues increasing by 36% and 135% year-on-year, respectively [12][13]. - The company’s home decoration GTV reached 16.9 billion yuan, up 27.3% year-on-year, while rental services managed over 430,000 properties, significantly up from 210,000 the previous year [12][13]. Market Position and Strategy - Beike-W is focused on enhancing its platform capabilities and expanding its business scope through data-driven customer insights, aiming for a more comprehensive service offering [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position and the potential for future growth in home decoration and rental services, which are expected to become significant revenue streams [10][12].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 低估值的消费细分龙头具有较高胜率 2025 年 03 月 17 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/3/18 2024/7/16 2024/11/13 2025/3/13 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《政策刺激力度符合预期》 2025-03-10 《建筑业 PMI 低位大幅反弹》 2025-03-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.3.10–2025.3.14，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 1.18%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 行业旺季渐行渐近，关注提价背后投资机会 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）下游需求逐步恢复，叠加行业自律错峰生 产执行落地，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥，塔牌集团等受益。（2） 风险逐步出清，推荐经营韧性超强的兔宝宝等；二手房交易数据 持续亮眼，叠加扩内需，促消费，推荐具备α属性的消费建材标的 三棵树、伟星新材等。（3）政府工作报告再提低空，推荐华设集 团、设计总院；深城交、苏交科、隧道股份等受益。（4）国家重 大工程雅鲁项目主体工程有望进入开工期，推荐重点工程中岩大 地。（5）推荐松井股份，汽车涂料国产替代需求旺盛，公司有望 放量；以机器人为代表的新型涂料潜在需求大。 ►第 11 周（03/09-03/15）新房交易逐步回温，二手房热度不 减。（1）30 城大中城市商品房交易数据：今年第 11 周，国内 30 大中城市商品房成交面积（新房）165.26 万㎡，同比+2%，环比 +14%；累计交易面积 1733.17 万㎡，同比+11%；从交 ...