Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the characteristics of the consumption peak season are beginning to emerge, with strong fundamental support for energy metal prices [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in downstream demand [1] - Market activity has significantly improved, with previously circulating low-priced goods being rapidly consumed [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Prices for rare earths and cobalt are steadily increasing [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming consumption peak season in September and October is expected to boost downstream demand and significantly revive market activity [1] - The rapid digestion of previously circulating low-priced goods has led to a steady increase in prices for rare earths and cobalt, while lithium carbonate prices have surged due to supply disruptions in Jiangxi [1] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have been rising continuously as major manufacturers intensify bidding and some magnetic material companies extend production schedules to mid-October [1] Group 2 - Cobalt imports saw a significant decline in June, and current smelter operating rates are continuously being adjusted downwards, with some production cuts anticipated [1] - It is expected that cobalt prices will receive strong support towards the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4 due to low raw material inventory levels at smelters [1] - Lithium prices are likely to rise due to upstream mine production cuts and a strong expectation of increased downstream demand, making price declines difficult [1]

Market Overview - The energy metals sector experienced a decline of 0.65% on August 21, with Yongshan Lithium leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3771.1, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11919.76, down 0.06% [1] Individual Stock Performance - The following stocks showed notable performance: - Boqian New Materials (605376) closed at 48.05, up 3.29% with a trading volume of 169,800 shares and a turnover of 807 million [1] - Shengton Mining (600711) closed at 7.83, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 1,096,800 shares and a turnover of 867 million [1] - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) closed at 65.45, up 0.48% with a trading volume of 121,800 shares and a turnover of 806 million [1] - Yongxing Materials (002756) closed at 34.98, up 0.20% with a trading volume of 109,500 shares and a turnover of 382 million [1] - Other notable declines included: - Tibet Mining (000762) down 0.93% to 22.32 with a turnover of 445 million [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) down 1.09% to 38.17 with a turnover of 1.082 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 638 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 334 million [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Boqian New Materials had a net inflow of 80.61 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 76.23 million from retail investors [3] - Yongshan Lithium experienced a net outflow of 16.75 million from institutional investors, with a net inflow of 13.29 million from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Rongjie Co. (002192) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) also faced significant net outflows from institutional investors [3]

（文章来源：第一财经） 中国银河证券认为，2025年7月以来，反内卷板块涉及的大宗商品价格多数上涨，直接驱动板块指数行 情。7月1日-8月15日，沪深300指数上涨6.76%，而钢铁、水泥、玻璃玻纤、工程机械、光伏设备、能源 金属、工业金属等均涨超10%；此外，装修建材、电池也跑赢沪深300指数。在交易拥挤度方面，受反 内卷政策影响，2025年7月中上旬，煤炭、钢铁、水泥、玻璃玻纤、装修建材、建筑装饰、工程机械、 光伏设备、电池等板块成交额占全A指数成交额比例显著提升。但7月下旬以来，上述板块成交额占比 陆续冲高回落。此外，短期内，随着一系列旨在缓解行业内卷的政策密集出台，市场对相关板块的业绩 改善预期迅速升温，大量资金涌入，交投活跃度快速攀升，反内卷板块估值明显提升。中长期来看，反 内卷政策通过提高毛利率、产能利用率促进业绩改善，提升相关板块中长期投资价值。 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongmin Resources is reported at 40.77 yuan, down 0.86 yuan or 2.07% from the previous trading day [1] - The stock reached a high of 42.45 yuan and a low of 40.62 yuan during the trading session, with a volatility of 4.40% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 311,241 hands, with a total transaction amount of 1.282 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Zhongmin Resources specializes in the exploration and development of mineral resources, focusing on non-ferrous metals such as lithium and cesium [1] - The company is registered in Beijing and operates within the energy metals industry [1] Group 3 - On August 20, Zhongmin Resources experienced a rapid decline, with a drop of over 2% within five minutes, reaching a price of 41.55 yuan at 10:03 AM, with a transaction amount of 369 million yuan at that time [1] - The net outflow of main funds for the day was 13.41 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 81.92 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Tibet Mining as of August 20, 2025, is 22.53 yuan, down 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day's closing price, representing a decline of 0.31% [1] - The company operates in the energy metals sector, primarily engaged in the mining and sales of chrome ore and lithium concentrate [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 134 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.91%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 15.305 million yuan, compared to a profit of 111 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in both product sales and prices [1] - On August 20, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 22.4779 million yuan, accounting for 0.19% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow reached 122 million yuan, representing 1.04% of the circulating market value [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for precious metals due to higher-than-expected U.S. PPI data, with expectations for continued growth in gold prices driven by potential Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar [5]. - Industrial metal prices show mixed trends, with a notable infrastructure project in Tibet expected to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term growth in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, and recommends specific stocks such as Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 1.28% decline in Shanghai gold prices during the week, while maintaining a bullish outlook on gold due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel showed varied changes, with copper increasing by 0.8% and nickel decreasing by 1.0% [27]. - The report mentions a significant infrastructure project in Tibet with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to enhance demand for industrial metals [5]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased, reflecting a growing demand driven by manufacturing recovery expectations [5][29]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices rose, with attention on the growth of energy metal demand [5][35]. 2. Market Data - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.62%, with specific segments like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant increases [36]. 3. Key Events of the Week - The report discusses the potential for significant Fed rate cuts as suggested by market strategist David Zervos, following the release of U.S. PPI data that exceeded market expectations [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved record-high operating performance in the first half of the year, with revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, up 23.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company continues to strengthen its overseas layout and enhance its integrated advantages, with significant projects underway in Indonesia and Africa [2][16]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 22.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 46.0%, reflecting its strong position in the lithium battery materials industry [3][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.459 billion yuan, up 27.04% year-on-year and 16.51% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 1.618 billion yuan, down 41.45% year-on-year [14]. Product Sales - The company’s cobalt product shipment was approximately 20,800 tons, down 9.89% year-on-year due to tight raw material supply. Nickel product shipments were approximately 139,400 tons, up 83.91% year-on-year, which was a key driver for Q2 performance [12][16]. - The shipment of ternary precursor materials was about 42,100 tons, showing a decline due to the company’s strategy to reduce low-margin product shipments. However, the shipment of ternary cathode materials increased by 17.68% year-on-year [12][16]. Overseas Expansion - The company has initiated the construction of a 120,000-ton nickel metal project in Indonesia in collaboration with Vale and Ford, and is progressing with a 60,000-ton project [2][16]. - In Africa, the Arcadia lithium mine project has increased its resource reserves from 1.5 million tons to 2.45 million tons, with a planned 50,000-ton lithium sulfate project expected to be completed by the end of the year [2][16]. Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 74.439 billion yuan, 81.159 billion yuan, and 89.137 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.067 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 8.294 billion yuan [3][19]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 3.57 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 4.87 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][19].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "slow bull" phase, driven by the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for incremental capital inflows, despite concerns about valuation risks in hard technology sectors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" phase, characterized by a dynamic environment where rapid price increases in Q3 could lead to increased volatility in Q4 unless strong signals prompt a significant upward revision of profit expectations [1][7]. - Incremental capital inflows are expected from various sources, including insurance asset management, bank wealth management, household savings, and foreign investments, indicating substantial potential for market growth [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor and hard technology sectors are under scrutiny for potential valuation risks, but the focus should be on whether actual industry progress aligns with market expectations [2][12]. - The energy metals sector is highlighted as a significant opportunity, particularly under the "anti-involution" policy, which may stabilize supply-demand dynamics and enhance industry valuations [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment in the Sci-Tech Board and ChiNext is recommended, as both indices represent emerging growth sectors with attractive valuations below historical averages [3][8]. - Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of high-flying stocks and to maintain a disciplined approach by setting reasonable profit targets and stop-loss levels [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on opportunities in light rare earths and lithium battery materials [4][6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 9.61% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking first among 31 primary industries [12]. - The price of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade, domestic) rose by 15.91% in the last two weeks, indicating strong demand in the market [55]. - The report highlights a significant capital inflow into the rare earth sector, with leading stocks showing strong performance [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.8.04-2025.8.15) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 9.61%, with metal new materials leading at 15.04% and industrial metals at 11.41% [12]. - Other sectors such as small metals, energy metals, and precious metals also saw substantial increases [12]. Precious Metals - As of August 15, COMEX gold closed at $3,381.70 per ounce, down 1.00% over two weeks, while COMEX silver rose by 2.47% to $38.02 per ounce [19][24]. - The report suggests a stable long-term outlook for gold due to global central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainties [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,621.0 per ton, up 0.90% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 10.77% [28]. - The report indicates a positive long-term demand outlook for copper driven by green energy investments [28]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 4.12% to 202,000 CNY per ton, while tin prices showed mixed trends [35]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for tungsten due to supply constraints and increased industrial usage [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index rose by 3.16% to 211.58, with light rare earths leading the price increases [47]. - The report notes a strong market sentiment for light rare earths driven by demand in the magnetic materials sector [48]. Energy Metals - As of August 15, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 263,500 CNY per ton, down 2.04% over two weeks, while sulfuric acid cobalt saw a 2.46% increase [52]. - The report highlights the significant year-to-date increase in cobalt prices, indicating strong market dynamics [52]. Lithium - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid-range power type) rose by 5.05% to 34,300 CNY per ton, reflecting ongoing demand in the battery sector [55]. - The report underscores the robust growth in lithium prices, driven by the electric vehicle market [55].