Core Viewpoint - Three squirrels (300783.SZ) has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong after its revenue returned to over 10 billion RMB, aiming to strengthen its position in the snack market through global supply chain enhancement, channel expansion, digital capability improvement, and strategic investments [1][2]. Company Overview - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels has grown from a single nut product to the largest Chinese snack company, with revenue increasing from 924 million RMB in 2014 to 10.17 billion RMB in 2019, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.2% [2]. - The company faced a decline in revenue from 2020 to 2023, dropping to 7.115 billion RMB due to rising customer acquisition costs and challenges in offline expansion [2][3]. - In 2024, Three Squirrels' revenue rebounded to 10.622 billion RMB, marking a historical high, with a net profit of 408 million RMB [2][3]. Market Position - As of 2024, Three Squirrels ranks as the fourth largest snack company in China, with a retail revenue of 13.98 billion RMB and a market share of 3.2% [4][6]. - The company has the fastest CAGR among the top five snack companies in China, at 18.86% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. Industry Trends - The Chinese snack market is projected to grow from 1.0816 trillion RMB in 2019 to 1.344 trillion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.4% [7]. - Consumer demand is shifting towards healthier, personalized snacks, with increasing interest in low-sugar, low-fat, and high-protein options [11]. Competitive Landscape - The snack market is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 5.9% of the total market share, necessitating strong brand influence and product competitiveness for success [12]. - Three Squirrels has implemented a "high-end cost-performance" strategy to enhance product competitiveness and market share, but faces challenges in balancing cost control and pricing strategies [12][13]. Product and Pricing Strategy - In 2024, the average selling prices of core products such as nuts and baked goods decreased significantly, which may compress profit margins if low pricing is maintained [13]. - The company is exploring multi-brand and new product categories to diversify risks and identify new growth points, although some brands are still in the incubation stage [15]. Future Outlook - The IPO is a critical decision for Three Squirrels, presenting both opportunities and challenges. The company must effectively utilize the raised funds to address strategic, channel, and product innovation issues to enhance brand competitiveness and market adaptability [15].

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels is preparing for a listing in Hong Kong after its successful IPO in A-shares in July 2019, driven by its strong brand presence and significant revenue from snack sales exceeding 10 billion yuan annually [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded by Zhang Liaoyuan, Three Squirrels capitalized on the e-commerce boom starting in 2012, focusing on leisure snacks and leveraging platforms like Taobao and JD.com for rapid growth [4]. - The company has expanded its product offerings beyond nuts to include baked goods, meat products, and various snack combinations, with over 1,000 SKUs under brands like "Three Squirrels" and "Little Deer Blue" [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - After experiencing a revenue decline for three consecutive years starting in 2020, the company has rebounded, achieving revenue and net profit growth for five consecutive quarters as of Q3 2023 [5]. - Revenue increased from 7.293 billion yuan and net profit of 129 million yuan in 2022 to 10.622 billion yuan and 407 million yuan in 2024, marking a significant recovery [9]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Three Squirrels aims to enhance its market position by adopting a "high-end cost performance" strategy and restructuring its entire value chain to optimize costs [5]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its supply chain and expand its offline retail presence, with plans to invest up to 360 million yuan in acquiring control of several food companies [8][9]. Group 4: Industry Context - The snack food market in China is poised for growth, with Zhang predicting that a Chinese company could emerge as a global leader in the snack industry [10]. - A wave of consumer companies, including Three Squirrels, is heading to the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a favorable environment for listings and capital raising in the sector [12][14].

文｜摩根商研所 近日，溜溜果园集团股份有限公司向港交所递交了招股书。 也许这名字对很多消费者来说有些陌生，但要说这就是那个"没事就吃溜溜梅"的母公司，很多人就清楚了。毕竟其大单品"溜溜梅"可谓家喻户晓，即使没吃 过也见过那魔性的广告。 从溜溜果园的招股书来看，此次赴港IPO可谓准备充足，但客观来说，"梅"开二度的溜溜果园，依然充满挑战。 营收虽好，旧疾仍在 先看财务数据，这三年来溜溜果园的营收情况十分不错。 根据招股书数据显示，在2022年、2023年及2024年，溜溜果园的总收入分别为11.74亿元、13.22亿元及16.16亿元。 同期的净利润则为分别0.68亿元、0.99亿元和1.48亿元。 不过在拆解过后会发现，净利润中还有着有政府补助的影子，近年来溜溜果园政府补贴一路从1950万元上升至2024年的3380万元，占净利润比例达22.8%。 虽然营收与净利润在稳步上升，但毛利率却从2023年的40.1%下降至2024年的36%。 其中，营收占比最大的梅干类零食2022年到2024年的毛利分别为3.21亿、3.16亿和3.12亿元，毛利率分别为39.6%、37.7%和32.1%，西梅类毛利也较为乏力， ...

Industry Overview - The market size of China's snack food industry reached 933 billion yuan in 2024, with a per capita annual consumption of 662.5 yuan, significantly lower than developed countries like the US (7578.7 yuan), UK (6543.9 yuan), and Japan (3524.6 yuan), indicating substantial growth potential [1] - The market is expected to grow to 1.14 trillion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% [1] Company Performance - Many listed companies in the snack sector have reported declines in both revenue and net profit in the past year, including major players like Liangpinpuzi, Juewei Food, and Zhou Hei Ya [3] - The "three giants" of marinated snacks have seen a reduction of over 5,000 stores due to declining performance, with Zhou Hei Ya reducing its stores by 785 to 3,031, and Huang Shang Huang by 837 to 3,660 [3] Leading Companies - Weidong Meiwai emerged as the "profit king" among snack companies, achieving a net profit of 1.068 billion yuan in the last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.37%, and revenue of 6.266 billion yuan, up 28.6% [5] - Three Squirrels is the only company to surpass 10 billion yuan in revenue, reporting 10.622 billion yuan, a 49.3% increase, and a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [7] - The company has expanded its product range significantly and plans to enter the bulk snack market through acquisitions [7] Financial Summary of Major Snack Companies - Three Squirrels: Revenue 106.22 billion yuan, Net Profit 4.08 billion yuan [8] - Liangpinpuzi: Revenue 71.59 billion yuan, Net Profit 0.46 billion yuan [8] - Juewei Food: Revenue 62.57 billion yuan, Net Profit 2.12 billion yuan [8] - Weidong Meiwai: Revenue 62.66 billion yuan, Net Profit 1.068 billion yuan [8] - Other companies like Salted Fish and Good Idea also reported varied performance, with some experiencing significant declines [8]

Group 1: A+H Listing Expansion - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a surge in listing applications, with 14 companies submitting applications between April 25 and 28, including industry leaders seeking A+H listings [1] - Three Squirrels aims to become the first A+H snack brand, reporting a projected revenue of 10.622 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2024, with 70% of revenue coming from online channels [2] - JA Solar has submitted its application for an A+H listing, reporting a projected revenue of 70.121 billion yuan for 2024, but facing a net loss of 4.656 billion yuan due to asset impairment losses [3][4] - Seres has successfully turned a profit in 2024, with a revenue of 1.45176 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.946 billion yuan, driven by increased sales of electric vehicles [5][6] Group 2: Companies Transitioning to Hong Kong - Rebio Biotech has submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previously attempting to list on the A-share market, reporting a net loss of 437.3 million yuan in 2023 [8][9] - Daji Group, which focuses on innovative radiation surgery solutions, has also shifted its listing application to Hong Kong after previously applying for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [10][11] - Hongyeji has submitted its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previously attempting to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, reporting revenues of approximately 1.228 billion yuan in 2022 [12]

Core Insights - The company "Laiyifen," known as the "first snack stock," has experienced its largest decline in performance since its listing, with a 15.25% drop in revenue for 2024, totaling 3.37 billion yuan, and a net loss of 75.26 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][4][14] - In the first quarter of 2025, Laiyifen reported a revenue of 1.048 billion yuan, down 1.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.44 million yuan, a significant decline of 79.72% [1][4] - Compared to peers like Wancheng Group and Three Squirrels, Laiyifen's revenue and profit growth rates are significantly lagging, despite maintaining a high gross margin of 40% [1][4][14] Revenue and Profit Decline - Laiyifen's main business revenue fell by 16.52% to 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.81%, down 1.94 percentage points from the previous year [4][6] - The company has seen a continuous decline in revenue since its listing, with 2023 marking the first revenue drop post-IPO, recording 3.977 billion yuan, a 9.25% decrease [4][14] Regional Performance - In East China, Laiyifen's revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, down 14.96%, with a gross margin of 40.76%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points [5][6] - North China saw a slight revenue increase of 3.63%, while South China experienced a significant decline of 22.46% [6] Product Performance - All product categories, including nuts, meat products, and candies, reported revenue declines, with the largest drop in meat products and aquatic products [6][7] - The revenue from nuts and beans was 756.86 million yuan, down 8.11%, while meat products generated 985.54 million yuan, down 17.82% [7] Sales Model Analysis - Retail revenue from stores decreased by 21.39% to 2.02 billion yuan, while e-commerce revenue saw the largest decline of 35.54% [8][9] - The company closed 600 stores in 2024, including 425 direct-operated and 175 franchised stores, indicating a strategic shift in its retail approach [10][11] Market Position and Competition - Laiyifen's market position has weakened compared to competitors, with significant revenue growth reported by Wancheng Group (323.29 billion yuan, up 247.86%) and Three Squirrels (106.22 billion yuan, up 49.3%) [13][14] - The company has opted not to engage in price wars, maintaining a high gross margin compared to competitors, which has led to criticism regarding its pricing strategy [16] Employee and Shareholder Dynamics - The company has reduced its workforce by 39.23% since 2021, with 4,590 employees reported in 2024 [17] - Shareholder issues persist, with the controlling shareholder facing penalties for illegal share reductions, raising concerns about governance [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the integration of high-quality agricultural products with differentiated snack food companies, highlighting the efforts of Liangpinpuzi to explore a new development model that combines leisure snacks with specialty agricultural products [1][5]. Group 1: Company Developments - Liangpinpuzi's new chairman, Cheng Hong, aims to lead the company in exploring the integration of leisure snacks and specialty agricultural products, leveraging her background in agricultural public brand research [1][5]. - On April 28, Liangpinpuzi announced a partnership with seven counties in Hubei, including Zhiqu and Honghu, during the "Taste of China Good Ingredients" event [1][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 7.159 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.02%, and a net profit of -46 million yuan, indicating a shift to losses compared to the previous year [5]. Group 2: Agricultural Development - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" document emphasizes the importance of high-quality agricultural development and the need to tap into rural specialty resources [4]. - The event highlighted the significance of quality control in agricultural products, with Honghu's government emphasizing a comprehensive quality supervision system from farm to table [7]. - The brand value of Honghu lotus root has shown significant market premiums, with an average premium of about 17% in the general market and up to 30% in high-end channels like JD and Hema [7]. Group 3: Market Strategy - Cheng Hong stated that the key to breaking the market barriers for specialty agricultural products lies in the deep integration of regional public brands and the inherent advantages of the origin [8]. - The company aims to enhance consumer trust through standardized quality control, allowing high-quality products to showcase the value of good raw materials in the market [8].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Three Squirrels has successfully turned around its business, achieving significant revenue growth and is now seeking a dual listing on the A+H stock markets to further its strategic goals [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, surpassing its previous peak of 10.173 billion yuan in 2019 [2]. - The net profit for 2024 was 408 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 85.51% [2]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue for four consecutive years from 2019 to 2023, dropping from over 10 billion yuan to 7.1 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Goals - Three Squirrels aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2026, necessitating substantial investment in a comprehensive multi-channel strategy [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its global brand recognition and supply chain capabilities through the planned IPO [2]. Market Position and Competition - The snack food industry is witnessing intense competition, particularly in the offline market, which is considered the main battleground [1][4]. - Three Squirrels is shifting its strategy to increase its offline presence, particularly through hard discount supermarket models, which are seen as crucial for market penetration [1][5]. Offline Expansion Efforts - In 2024, Three Squirrels announced plans to acquire control of snack brand "Ai Ling Shi" and hard discount supermarket brand "Ai Zhe Kou" for up to 2.6 billion yuan [5]. - The company's offline sales revenue grew by 48.62% in 2024, although the revenue share from offline sales has remained relatively stable over the past three years [5]. Industry Trends - The hard discount supermarket sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Ming Ming Hen Mang and Wan Chen Group already established in the market [5][6]. - The rise of hard discount supermarkets is prompting traditional retailers to adapt, with some shifting towards cost-effective models [6]. Supply Chain Focus - Three Squirrels plans to use funds from its IPO to strengthen its supply chain, including the establishment of new production lines at key bases [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the snack wholesale industry [11] Core Insights - The snack wholesale industry is entering a 2.0 era, characterized by rapid expansion and a shift towards a full-category discount model as brands adapt to market saturation [4][9] - The industry has seen significant growth, with over 40,000 stores expected by the end of 2024, driven by a consumer trend favoring cost-effective options [8][45] - The transition to a full-category discount model is essential for brands to enhance profitability and customer experience, with supply chain optimization being a critical factor [10][53] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese snack food industry exceeds 1 trillion yuan, with a low concentration due to diverse consumer preferences [7] - The evolution of the industry has been closely tied to changes in retail channels, moving from traditional retail to e-commerce and now to snack wholesale [7][23] Market Dynamics - The snack wholesale sector has experienced rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% to 16% from 2022 to 2024, as consumers seek value for money [19][20] - The emergence of brands like "Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming" reflects the competitive landscape, with a focus on low prices and a wide range of products [8][9] Transition to Full-Category Model - As the snack wholesale market matures, brands are exploring full-category discount formats to maintain growth and profitability [9][53] - The success of this transition relies heavily on effective supply chain management and product selection [10][53] Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a dual oligopoly formation with "Snack Busy" and "Wanchen" leading the charge, controlling a significant share of the market [45][47] - The report highlights the importance of strategic mergers and acquisitions in enhancing brand influence and operational efficiency [47][50] Future Outlook - The snack wholesale industry is projected to continue its expansion, with an estimated 45,000 stores by 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [45][46] - The focus on supply chain efficiency and customer-centric strategies will be pivotal in navigating the competitive landscape [10][53]

Core Viewpoint - Company Squirrel is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) while reporting strong revenue growth for 2024, but faces challenges in maintaining net profit growth and declining average selling prices for its main products [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Company Squirrel achieved revenue of approximately 10.62 billion yuan and net profit of about 407 million yuan, marking increases from previous years [3]. - The company's revenue from short video platforms grew significantly, contributing 26.35 million yuan in 2024, which accounted for 24.8% of total revenue [3]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit decline of 22.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 239 million yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Product Pricing and Sales - The average selling prices of the company's five main product categories (nuts, baked goods, meat products, dried fruits, and snacks) decreased in 2024 [6][7]. - Specifically, the average selling price of nuts fell from 4.82 million yuan/ton in 2023 to 4.37 million yuan/ton in 2024, despite nuts contributing over 50% of total revenue [6][7]. - The sales revenue breakdown for 2024 showed that nuts generated approximately 5.37 billion yuan, while other categories also experienced price declines [6][7]. Group 3: Management and Dividends - Company Squirrel's executives received significant salary increases, with the chairman's salary rising from approximately 3.14 million yuan in 2022 to 3.81 million yuan in 2024 [8][9]. - In contrast, the company's dividend payout for 2024 was relatively low, with a proposed cash dividend of 1.25 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of only 0.38% [9][10]. - The company has faced criticism for its low dividend policy, which may impact investor sentiment and company valuation [10][11]. Group 4: Consumer Complaints - Company Squirrel has received numerous consumer complaints regarding product quality, including issues with food safety and product discrepancies, totaling 4,377 complaints on the Black Cat Complaints App [11][12].