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策略周报(20260119-20260123)-20260126
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2026-01-26 11:50
Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.5137% to 1.5360%, a rise of 2.23 basis points; DR007 rose from 1.4430% to 1.4935%, an increase of 5.05 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 2.82 basis points [9] - The net outflow of funds this week was 250.36 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 167.59 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was -184.25 billion yuan, while fund demand was 66.12 billion yuan [13] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index saw gains, with the building materials sector leading at a weekly increase of 9.18%. Other sectors like petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel also experienced slight increases. The banking and telecommunications sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.69% and 1.68% respectively [18] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices increased, with cyclical and growth styles leading at 4.64% and 1.81% respectively. The financial style was the only one to decline, down by 1.50%. Growth style accounted for 58.15% of the average daily trading volume, making it the most active sector [3]
新华解码丨发展绿色生产力 零碳工厂怎么建?
Xin Hua She· 2026-01-26 11:46
新华社北京1月26日电 题:发展绿色生产力 零碳工厂怎么建? 新华社记者周圆 "指导意见优先选择脱碳需求迫切、能源消费以电力为主、脱碳难度相对较小的行业先行探索,待 条件成熟后再向碳排放量强度高、脱碳难度大的行业逐步推进。"潘小海说,因业施策、分阶段梯度培 育,充分考虑了行业发展特点、碳排放特征、脱碳技术难度及成本效益等方面的因素,有利于积极稳妥 推进工业领域实现"双碳"目标。 零碳工厂建设是一项系统工程。指导意见聚焦科学算碳、源头减碳、过程脱碳、协同降碳、智能控 碳、碳抵销和信息披露等方面,系统布局了零碳工厂的建设路径,构建起全过程全链条降碳体系。 首先要解决"怎么算得清、说得准"的问题。中国电子技术标准化研究院副院长陈大纪介绍,指导意 见明确健全碳排放核算管理体系,实现科学算碳,把核算边界、计量核算、信息报告等关键环节规范起 来,形成真实、可比、可核查的数据基础,为减排路径选择、过程管控和成效评估提供依据。 零碳工厂"怎么减"是建设成败的关键。陈大纪说,指导意见聚焦关键环节,在源头减碳、过程脱碳 作出一系列安排,如鼓励有条件的工厂建设工业绿色微电网、协同推进能效提升与工艺流程脱碳、提高 通用设备能效水平等 ...
2026年总量与政策年度展望:风至势起,进而有为
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-26 11:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a systematic reshaping of macro governance paradigms through "three rebalances," aiming to establish a new starting point for high-quality development in 2026, which is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The report identifies the main contradiction in the economy as "strong supply and weak demand," highlighting the necessity for policies to focus on expanding domestic demand while addressing structural issues [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy framework for 2026 is expected to prioritize internal demand, reform, and innovation, aiming for high-quality development while balancing external and internal factors [3] Group 2 - In 2025, the economic operation showed a steady improvement supported by proactive macro policies, with industrial production demonstrating resilience and a shift towards high-tech industries [2][12] - The report notes that the external demand has been stronger than internal demand, with exports playing a significant role in supporting economic stability [3][33] - The investment landscape remains challenging, particularly in real estate, while manufacturing investment is buoyed by equipment renewal policies [2][3] Group 3 - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests a moderate GDP growth target of around 5%, with growth driven by improvements in domestic demand and supply efficiency [4] - Price indicators are expected to show a mild upward trend, with PPI likely to recover due to improved supply-demand dynamics and global manufacturing inventory cycles [4][33] - The market dynamics are shifting from liquidity-driven growth to profit-driven growth, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector, which is expected to see significant profit recovery [4][33]
工信部、生态环境部等五部委联合下发零碳工厂建设指导意见!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 11:10
(来源:湖南省可再生能源学会) 1月19日,工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、生态环境部、国务院国资委、国家能源局公布《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》。 根据文件,零碳工厂建设是指通过技术创新、结构调整和管理优化等减排措施,实现厂区内二氧化碳排放的持续降低、逐步趋向于近零的过程。 文件指出,实施分阶段梯度培育,优先选择脱碳需求迫切、能源消费以电力为主、脱碳难度相对较小的行业先行探索,逐步完善相关规划设计、能源供 应、工艺技术、管理运营和商业模式,待条件成熟后再向碳排放量强度高、脱碳难度大的行业逐步推进。 2026年起,遴选一批零碳工厂,做好标杆引领。 到2027年,在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域,培育建设一批零碳工厂,初步构建涵盖能源供应、技术研发、标准制 定、金融支持等的零碳工厂建设产业生态,有效适应国际贸易规则,增强产业低碳竞争优势。 到2030年,将零碳工厂建设逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域,探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径,推广零碳工厂设计、融 资、改造、管理等综合服务模式和系统解决方案,大幅提升产品全生命周期和全产业链管理能力,实现工厂碳排放 ...
分析人士:顺周期板块“后劲”更足
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-26 07:51
Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a phase of oscillation and adjustment after an initial strong upward trend, with active trading but increased regulatory measures to temper speculation [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the market's future direction will depend on the strength of economic recovery and improvements in corporate earnings [1][4] - The current regulatory stance aims to prevent excessive market growth that could lead to bubble risks, promoting a high-quality "slow bull" market instead [1][2] Group 2 - Despite some technology stocks reaching historical high valuations, the overall valuation of A-shares remains at a neutral level, with the total A-share index P/E ratio at 23.5, lower than the S&P 500's 30.0 and Nasdaq's 42.0 [2] - Recent market trends show that small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks, driven by economic recovery and liquidity conditions favoring growth sectors aligned with national strategies [2][3] - The influx of liquidity from relaxed monetary policies and increased household deposits is expected to support the stock market, with a significant portion of deposits potentially shifting to higher-yielding financial products [3] Group 3 - The market is currently characterized by strong liquidity drivers, while the economic fundamentals are still stabilizing, indicating that improvements in corporate earnings and market style rotation are contingent on further domestic demand policies and clearer economic signals [4]
连续3日“吸金”,港股通央企红利ETF天弘(159281)盘中获净申购2200万份,标的指数股息率近6%
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2026-01-26 06:52
Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.2%, while the Central Enterprises Dividend Index rose by 1.08% [1] - Among the constituents of the Central Enterprises Dividend Index, China Merchants Energy surged over 6%, China Railway increased by over 5%, and China National Offshore Oil, China National Building Material, and China Shenhua all rose by over 4% [1] - The Tianhong Central Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) recorded a trading volume exceeding 63 million yuan, with a net subscription of 22 million shares during the session [1] Group 2 - CICC indicated that the dividend sector presents phase-specific and structural opportunities amid increasing external uncertainties or a pullback in growth styles, highlighting a "seesaw" effect between dividend and technology growth styles [2] - Demand for capital allocation is expected to support the dividend sector, including the shift of long-term funds from insurance and bank wealth management towards equity assets, as well as the transition of household deposits to dividend assets [2] - The overall dividend payout ratio in the A-share market has increased to 45%, providing fundamental support for the dividend style, alongside continuous encouragement from capital market policies for dividend-oriented strategies [2]
——金属周期品高频数据周报(2026.1.19-2026.1.25):取向硅钢价格创2018年以来新低水平-20260126
EBSCN· 2026-01-26 06:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of oriented silicon steel has reached its lowest level since 2018, indicating potential market challenges [2] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a historical high, with the London gold spot price at $4,981 per ounce, reflecting strong demand [11] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained in the medium to long term, which could lead to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is at 50.27, up 6.62% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, down 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The current London gold price is $4,981 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate in January is expected to be at its highest level for the same period in five years [20] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week [39] - The report notes that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,300 yuan per ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [76] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 74.56%, up 1.12 percentage points [2] - The report indicates that the price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,130 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.54% increase [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 543,000 yuan per ton, up 6.37% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.62%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 7.71% [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, up 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,208.75 points, down 0.09% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.90%, up 0.20 percentage points [3]
春季行情仍在途,注意总体赚钱效应已逼近高位
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-26 05:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market is experiencing a spring rally, characterized by a recovery in market confidence and a focus on sectors that are not heavily weighted in broad-based ETFs, particularly in consumer and real estate chains [2][3][4][10] - The liquidity environment is a key driver of the current spring rally, supported by new insurance premiums entering the market and the return of overseas funds due to the appreciation of the RMB [4][7] - The market is expected to see a structural bull market with alternating phases of upward and sideways movements, with the current phase transitioning from the second to the third upward segment [6][12][14] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with strong earnings forecasts, particularly in AI hardware, batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials [5][9][11] - The focus on "technology + resource products" is emphasized, with sectors such as semiconductors, AI, new energy, and chemicals being highlighted for their growth potential [7][9] - The market is advised to pay attention to the performance of cyclical stocks and the impact of regulatory policies on market dynamics, particularly in the context of the anticipated earnings reports from listed companies [10][12][13]
南方基金:持续大涨!黄金突破4990美元!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-26 05:21
上周市场整体走高,但各大指数表现分化。其中中证500、科创50等指数涨幅领跑,沪深300、上证50却小幅走低。 中信行业板块方面:建材、石油石化、钢铁指数涨幅居前;银行、通信、食品饮料指数跌幅居前。 | | | 估值水平 (PE TTM) | 周涨跌幅 | 近一李度 涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股主要 | 中证500 | 39. 06 | 4. 34% | 18. 35% | 15.06% | | | 中证1000 | 51.81 | 2. 89% | 14.17% | 11. 53% | | | 科创50 | 180. 18 | 2. 62% | 6. 26% | 15. 59% | | | 深证成指 | 33. 62 | 1. 11% | 8. 66% | 6. 76% | | | 上证综指 | 17.13 | 0. 84% | 4. 70% | 4.22% | | 证券指数 | 创业板指 | 43. 64 | -0. 34% | 5.61% | 4. 57% | | | 科创创业50 | 59. 10 | 0. 54% | 3. 49 ...
零碳工厂:工业领域落实“双碳”目标的关键抓手
中国能源报· 2026-01-26 04:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on the Construction of Zero Carbon Factories" by five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, marking a significant step in promoting zero carbon factory construction as a national strategic action aimed at achieving carbon neutrality in the industrial sector [1][3]. Summary by Sections Zero Carbon Factory Definition and Goals - A zero carbon factory prioritizes the use of green electricity and energy-saving modifications to reduce carbon emissions, aiming for net-zero emissions through carbon offsetting via green trading [1]. - The construction of zero carbon factories is set to be included in government work reports by 2025, indicating its elevation from industry exploration to a national strategy [1]. Key Tasks and Industry Focus - The "Guiding Opinions" outline three clear aspects: construction objects, goals, and pathways, focusing on key industries such as automotive, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, which together account for over 65% of the industrial added value and approximately 50% of total carbon emissions in China [3][4]. Development Goals and Phased Approach - The document sets clear, phased development goals, emphasizing the need to establish low-carbon competitive advantages in sensitive international trade sectors by 2027, particularly in automotive and electronics [4]. - By 2030, the focus will shift to consolidating low-carbon achievements in foundational materials and consumer goods, promoting collaborative carbon reduction across supply chains [4]. Construction Pathways and Mechanisms - The "Guiding Opinions" propose a comprehensive lifecycle approach to carbon reduction, including scientific carbon accounting, source reduction, process reduction, consumption carbon fixation, intelligent carbon control, and efficient carbon management [5]. - It emphasizes the need for differentiated deployment of tasks among various stakeholders, including local authorities, enterprises, industry associations, and research institutions, to create a multi-faceted governance structure for zero carbon factory construction [5]. Four Guiding Principles - The article outlines four guiding principles for zero carbon factory construction: 1. **Prudent Development**: Tailoring strategies to industry characteristics and ensuring steady carbon reduction without compromising economic growth [7]. 2. **Systematic Advancement**: Integrating energy optimization, resource recycling, and supply chain collaboration into a comprehensive carbon reduction strategy [8]. 3. **Soft and Hard Integration**: Combining physical measures with robust carbon management systems to enhance overall carbon management capabilities [9]. 4. **International Leadership**: Establishing standards and databases that reflect China's characteristics and actively participating in international standard-setting [9]. Recommendations for Stakeholders - Local authorities are advised to implement science-based policies that consider regional industrial characteristics and avoid sacrificing normal operations for short-term emission reductions [12]. - Enterprises should focus on enhancing their green competitiveness by aligning with ESG disclosure requirements and establishing effective carbon management systems [12]. - Research institutions are encouraged to innovate standards and frameworks that support zero carbon factory construction, ensuring alignment with international practices [13]. Conclusion - The "Guiding Opinions" serve as a clear action guide and institutional framework, marking a solid step towards zero carbon development in China's industry, with the potential to set a global benchmark for industrial green transformation [13].