2025 年 07 月 06 日 "反内卷"政策下，能源及材料投 资机会梳理 看好 ——新材料与投资品产业链点评 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵文琪 (8621)23297818× zhaowq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.4 times, positioned at the historical 77th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.3 times, at the historical 58th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 28.9 times, at the historical 48th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 32.4 times, at the historical 14th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 38.7 times, at the historical 50th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 50.9 times, at the historical 67th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 136.3 times, at the historical 97th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.2 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 6th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, spot prices continue to decline while multi-crystalline silicon futures prices rise by 5.4% due to "anti-involution" policy expectations [2] - The price of silicon wafers decreased by 1.5%, while battery cell prices fell by 3.7% [2] - Lithium prices show mixed trends, with lithium carbonate rising by 2.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate falling by 0.3% [2] Real Estate Chain - In the steel sector, rebar prices increased by 1.3%, and iron ore prices rose by 2.3% [3] - The cement price index decreased by 0.8% due to seasonal demand weakness [3] - Glass prices saw a short-term emotional rebound, with a 1.5% increase in spot prices [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 4.3%, driven by reduced output plans from leading enterprises [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.01% [3] - Corn prices rose by 0.6%, while soybean prices remained stable [3] Technology TMT - Domestic smartphone shipments saw a year-on-year decline of 2.8% from January to May 2025, with leading brands focusing on the high-end market [3] Cyclical Industries - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 1.8%, closing at $68.51 per barrel [3] - The coal price at Qinhuangdao Port rose by 0.5% due to seasonal demand improvements [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 5.6%, indicating a decrease in shipping rates [3]

Group 1: Impact of "Anti-Inner-Loop" Policy on the Market - The "Anti-Inner-Loop" policy has gained significant attention from the central government, particularly in industries facing overcapacity, as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1, 2025 [2][11] - Following the policy announcement, sectors such as photovoltaic and cement have taken measures to reduce production and optimize industry structure, leading to a strong market response with noticeable capital inflow [2][11] - The policy aims to enhance supply structure, stabilize market expectations, and improve overall industry efficiency and competitiveness [11][12] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The current market is in a volatile phase, with investment hotspots concentrated in technology, military industry, and state-owned enterprises, benefiting from stable policies and capital inflow from U.S. markets [5][16] - The technology sector is expected to be a key focus in July, supported by reduced policy uncertainty and domestic planning emphasizing technology [16][17] - The military sector is anticipated to perform well due to increased defense budgets and upcoming high-profile military events [17] - State-owned enterprises and public utilities are seen as having good allocation value in the third quarter, given the weakening internal dynamics of real estate and strict regulatory measures [18] Group 3: Market Overview and Trends - The market has shown a trend of oscillating upward, with major indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 rising by 1.22%, 1.54%, and 0.59% respectively [8][21] - The steel, banking, and building materials sectors have led the market, indicating a recovery in activity levels [21][23] - The average turnover rate for the entire market has increased, reflecting a rise in trading activity [27][28]

傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 07 月 05 日 去产能是慢变量，去产量是快变量 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/06/30-25/07/05) 相关研究 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 一、反内卷需要区分"去资本开支""去产能""去产量"。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一 周 回 顾 展 望 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 反内卷政策加码，唤醒了市场对 2016-17 年的供给侧的记忆。我们认为，2016-17 年供 给侧改革经验，可以拆解成三个核心要素：一是"去产能"，包括淘汰落后产能，也包 括抑制新增资本开支，使得远期产能形成下降。"去产能"的影响是长期的，2022 年之 前以煤炭为代表的周期品盈利 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to maximize the exposure of the target factor in the portfolio while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures relative to the benchmark index[60][61] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The objective function is to maximize the portfolio's exposure to the target factor $ \text{Max} \quad w^{\prime} X_{\text{target}} $ 2. Constraints include: - Industry neutrality: $ (w - w_b)^{\prime} X_{\text{inad}} = 0 $ - Style neutrality: $ (w - w_b)^{\prime} X_{\text{Beta}} = 0 $ - Weight deviation limit: $ |w - w_b| \leq 1\% $ - No short selling: $ w \geq 0 $ - Full investment: $ w^{\prime} B = 1 $ and $ w^{\prime} 1 = 1 $ 3. Factors are neutralized to remove correlations with industry and style factors (e.g., size, valuation, growth) 4. Factor directions are adjusted to be positive before optimization[60][62][63] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances factor exposure maximization with risk control, ensuring alignment with the benchmark index[63] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor (BP) **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the valuation level of stocks based on book-to-price ratio[14][15] **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{BP} = \frac{\text{Shareholders' Equity}}{\text{Market Capitalization}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in capturing undervalued stocks, particularly in defensive market environments[14][15] - **Factor Name**: Growth Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the growth potential of stocks based on sales and earnings growth rates[14][15] **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Growth Factor} = \frac{\text{SGRO} + \text{EGRO}}{2} $ - $ \text{SGRO} $: Regression slope of past 5 years' annual sales divided by average sales - $ \text{EGRO} $: Regression slope of past 5 years' annual earnings divided by average earnings[14][15] **Factor Evaluation**: Useful in identifying high-growth stocks, though performance may vary across market cycles[14][15] - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements[14][15] **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Beta} = \text{Regression Coefficient of Stock Returns on Market Returns} $ - Regression uses 252 trading days with a half-life of 63 days[14][15] **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in capturing market risk preferences, with low-beta stocks outperforming in risk-averse environments[14][15] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor (RSTR) **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong relative strength over a specific period[14][15] **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{RSTR} = \text{Cumulative Returns over 504 Days (Excluding Last 21 Days)} $ - Returns are weighted using a half-life of 126 days[14][15] **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in trending markets but may underperform during reversals[14][15] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Valuation Factor (BP)**: - Recent 1-week long-short return: 1.90% - Recent 1-month long-short return: -0.58%[17] - **Growth Factor**: - Recent 1-week long-short return: -0.79% - Recent 1-month long-short return: -0.99%[17] - **Beta Factor**: - Recent 1-week long-short return: -2.89% - Recent 1-month long-short return: 5.63%[17] - **Momentum Factor (RSTR)**: - Recent 1-week long-short return: -1.03% - Recent 1-month long-short return: -2.31%[17] --- Index Enhancement Portfolio Backtesting Results - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: - 1-week excess return: 0.63% - 1-month excess return: 2.22% - 1-year excess return: 2.43%[57][58] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: - 1-week excess return: 0.10% - 1-month excess return: -1.25% - 1-year excess return: -2.90%[57][58] - **CSI 800 Enhanced Portfolio**: - 1-week excess return: 0.70% - 1-month excess return: 1.47% - 1-year excess return: 1.03%[57][58] - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio**: - 1-week excess return: 0.16% - 1-month excess return: 0.21% - 1-year excess return: 12.99%[57][58] - **CSI 300 ESG Enhanced Portfolio**: - 1-week excess return: 0.36% - 1-month excess return: 2.64% - 1-year excess return: 7.88%[57][58]

Key Points - The article summarizes important announcements from various listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on July 4, providing insights for investors [2] Group 1: Major Corporate Actions - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation's absorption and merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Group has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, pending further regulatory approvals [3] - Aerospace Hongtu's controlling shareholder's action party plans to transfer 5.1% of the company's shares to a private equity fund at a price of 19 yuan per share, totaling 253 million yuan [4] - Guotou Zhonglu plans to acquire 100% of China Electronic Engineering Design Institute through a share issuance, with the transaction price yet to be determined [5] - Haitai Development intends to transfer 100% of its subsidiary's equity for 90.6595 million yuan, aiming to optimize its asset structure [6] - Gensun Bio plans to invest approximately 150 million yuan to build an intelligent production and R&D base, expected to be completed by 2028 [7] - Xinhua Insurance intends to invest 11.25 billion yuan to subscribe to a private equity fund, which has a total size of 22.5 billion yuan [8] - Huaming Equipment has raised its share repurchase fund limit from 200 million yuan to 250 million yuan [9] - Aotewei's controlling shareholders plan to transfer 4.99% of the company's shares through a pricing inquiry [10] - Jianke Institute plans to publicly transfer 40% of its stake in Hubei Jiansheng Engineering Technology Consulting Co., Ltd. [11] - Aerospace Electronics plans to increase capital in its subsidiary to enhance its capabilities in unmanned systems [12] Group 2: Financial Performance - Jin Xin Nong reported a 1.23% year-on-year decline in pig sales revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 763 million yuan [14] - Tianbang Food's June pig sales revenue decreased by 4.01% month-on-month, with a total of 4.143 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [15] - GAC Group's June automobile sales fell by 8.22% year-on-year, with a total of 755,300 vehicles sold in the first half of 2025, down 12.48% [16] - Pulite expects a net profit increase of 38.88% to 66.65% for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in modified materials and new energy businesses [18] - Zhuye Group anticipates a net profit increase of 50.97% to 75.23% for the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising precious metal prices [19] - Xindong Lian Ke expects a net profit increase of 144.46% to 199.37% for the first half of 2025, supported by sufficient orders and revenue growth [20] - Zhongce Rubber forecasts a net profit decrease of 6.3% to 11.81% for the first half of 2025, due to a one-time gain in the previous year [21] - *ST Sihua expects a net loss of 11 million to 17 million yuan for the first half of 2025, despite significant sales order growth [22] - Sankeshu anticipates a net profit increase of 80.94% to 119.04% for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in retail business and improved gross margins [23] Group 3: Major Contracts and Shareholding Changes - Hongsheng Huayuan's subsidiary is expected to win a bid for a project worth approximately 1.127 billion yuan from the Southern Power Grid [25] - Times New Materials signed contracts worth approximately 2.711 billion yuan for wind turbine blade sales in the second quarter of 2025 [26] - Guojian Group's controlling shareholder reduced its holdings of convertible bonds by 900,000 units, accounting for 11.25% of the total issuance [27] - Yue Wanniang's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 6% through various trading methods [28] - Maipu Medical's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 665,100 shares, representing 0.9999% of the total shares [29] - Jiulian Technology's directors and senior management plan to reduce their holdings by up to 2.61% of the total shares [30] - *ST Huawang's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.76% through trading methods [32]

Group 1 - The core message of the articles highlights the commitment of Dongfang Yuhong, a Chinese building materials company, to address the issue of leakage in old residential buildings, which affects 30% of such structures in China, through a long-term public welfare initiative [1][3] - Since 2006, Dongfang Yuhong has been actively involved in a public welfare campaign titled "Serving the Public, Rejecting Leakage," which has evolved over 19 years into a professional team providing training and certification for engineers to combat regional leakage issues [1][3] - The company has provided free repairs to nearly 600 special households and conducted 140,000 free consultations, emphasizing that leakage is a social issue rather than merely a technical one [3] Group 2 - Dongfang Yuhong's commitment to sustainability is evident through its investments in green production technologies, such as RTO rotary smoke treatment equipment and rooftop photovoltaic power stations, which have contributed to its AA-level ESG rating, the highest recognition in the building materials industry [3][5] - The company has demonstrated that addressing social pain points can serve as a foundation for innovation, leading to the natural growth of commercial value [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has regained upward momentum in July, supported by a low interest rate environment and a recovery in risk appetite, with expectations for incremental policies to potentially break the current sideways trend [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - After breaking through the March high, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations but continued to trend upwards, reaching recent highs [1]. - The market's risk appetite has improved, with sectors like non-bank financials, media, and military industry showing signs of recovery [1]. - The upcoming policy window in July is expected to further support the market's gradual upward trajectory [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The market is likely to see a thematic event-driven approach in July, with a high probability of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [2]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2]. 2. Robotics, with a trend towards domestic production and integration into daily life, particularly in humanoid and functional robots [2]. 3. Semiconductor localization, emphasizing semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. Military industry, with expectations for order recovery and signs of bottoming out in Q1 reports across various sub-sectors [2]. 5. Innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a continued upward trend, with electronic and other high-elasticity sectors leading the gains [3]. - Despite some fluctuations, the overall market confidence has strengthened, with over 3,200 stocks rising, indicating a positive earning effect [3]. - Leading sectors included electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like coal, transportation, and banking faced declines [3].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 26 products experiencing price increases, 20 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in late June 2025 compared to mid-June 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary medium plates decreased by 1.0%, while seamless steel pipes remained unchanged [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.2%, while aluminum ingots remained stable [4]. - Chemical products displayed varied trends, with sulfuric acid increasing by 1.7% and caustic soda decreasing by 5.3% [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - The petroleum and natural gas sector saw significant price increases, with gasoline (95 National VI) rising by 3.6% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) increasing by 0.6% [4]. - In the coal category, prices for anthracite coal decreased by 4.8%, while ordinary mixed coal saw a slight increase of 1.5% [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with corn prices increasing by 1.3% and cotton prices rising by 1.0%, while soybean prices decreased slightly by 0.1% [5]. - The price of urea remained stable, while the price of compound fertilizer decreased by 1.1% [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2,000 wholesalers and dealers, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the market [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, as well as inquiries via phone and electronic communication [9].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation of a special action plan by multiple government departments in China to accelerate the development of digital and intelligent supply chains using technologies like AI, IoT, and blockchain [1] Group 1: Digital Supply Chain Development - The action plan aims to enhance capabilities such as demand forecasting, intelligent decision-making, risk perception, and self-repairing within supply chains [1] - A case study collection was published by the Ministry of Commerce, showcasing how digital supply chains connect the entire production to consumption process [1] Group 2: Case Studies in Supply Chain Innovation - In the ceramic tile industry, a digital supply chain platform integrates multiple raw material suppliers, ensuring stable supply and standardization of raw materials, which improves production quality [3] - The platform also facilitates easier access to financing for small and medium-sized building material companies by connecting them with banks and financial service providers [3] - In the fresh produce sector, a big data center utilizes weather forecasts to optimize cold chain logistics, significantly improving transportation efficiency [4] - The introduction of drones for last-mile delivery is being explored to enhance logistics in challenging areas [4] Group 3: Intelligent Manufacturing in Apparel - The "smart tailor" technology allows for rapid and precise body measurements, transforming traditional tailoring into a data-driven process [5] - The system can generate multiple fitting patterns based on individual body characteristics, ensuring personalized clothing production [6] - The integration of intelligent supply chains enables the industrialization of personalized clothing, making it scalable and replicable [6]