水泥玻璃反内卷：过去与未来 20250702 摘要 浮法玻璃市场供需基本面稳定，日熔量维持在 15.5 万至 15.8 万吨之间， 未见明显去库或去产能。期货价格贴水现货，市场预期供给侧变化，但 短期内无强力政策催化，需经历长期亏损才能实现市场化出清。 国内光伏玻璃价格已跌至极端亏损状态，拥有海外基地的头部企业盈利 表现相对较好。国内市场主要通过减产来匹配组件装机量下滑，缓解库 存压力。 利状况。 水泥协会公开发声背后的推动力是什么？ 水泥协会公开发声背后是工信部对整个水泥行业限制超产政策的不满意，并希 望进一步推动该政策。这表明工信部希望通过更高层次的协调和执行力度来确 保企业遵守限制超产规定，以改善供需格局和提高盈利能力。 近期水泥行业的主要变化是什么？ 近期水泥行业发生了几个重要变化。首先，水泥协会在 7 月 1 日左右重新发布 了限制超产的政策，并公开传达了相关会议精神。这表明工信部对水泥行业限 制超产政策的不满意，并进一步推动该政策。去年 12 月开始实施的限制超产 政策是一个内部文件，今年作为试点年，企业需要统计自己的实际产能并找指 标补齐不足。预计到 2026 年彻底解决这个问题。 限制超产政策 ...

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.62% to 24,221.41 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.64% to 5,269.11 points, and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.54% to 8,724.9 points [1][2]. Steel Sector - The steel sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Chongqing Steel's stock reaching a peak increase of 135.56% before closing with a 91.11% rise at HKD 1.72 per share. Other companies like Ansteel and China Oriental Group also saw increases of over 10% [5][7]. - A rumor regarding production limits in Tangshan from July 4 to July 15, with a potential reduction in daily output by 30%, has drawn market attention. Current production data indicates a utilization rate of 83%, which could drop to 70% under the new limits [7]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks performed well, with Shandong Gold rising over 5%. Other companies such as Zijin Mining and China National Gold also experienced gains [8][10]. - Macau's gaming revenue for June reached MOP 210.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, driven by events like concerts [11]. Solar Sector - The solar sector showed strong performance, with companies like Fuyao Glass increasing by over 11%. A collective decision by major solar glass manufacturers to reduce production by 30% is expected to address supply-demand imbalances [12]. Chip and Military Sectors - The chip sector faced declines, with Shanghai Fudan dropping over 4%, and other companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC also experiencing losses [13][14]. - The military sector also saw declines, with China Shipbuilding Defense falling over 4% [15]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC suggest that the macro environment for Hong Kong stocks is characterized by abundant liquidity and structural highlights, leading to index fluctuations. UBS forecasts continued net inflows from mainland investors, with significant buying activity noted earlier in the year [16].

【导读】 港股高开低走，钢铁板块午后拉升，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片股、军工 股下挫 见习记者 储是 7月2日为港股下半年第一个交易日。 今日，港股高开低走，窄幅震荡。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨0.62%，报收于24221.41点；恒 生科技指数下跌0.64%，报收于5269.11点；国企指数上涨0.54%，报收于8724.9点。 盘面上，大型科网股普遍走高，钢铁板块午后猛拉，黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强，芯片 股、军工股下挫。 大型科技股多数走高 此外，弘业期货H股跌超13%，A股跌停两连板，累计下跌超19%。 黄金股、博彩股和光伏股走强 今日，山东黄金涨超5%，潼关黄金、紫金矿业、招金矿业、中国黄金国际等纷纷上涨。 涨跌不一 京东集团涨0.08%，小米集团涨0.33%，美团涨0.56%；阿里巴巴跌0.36%，腾讯控股跌 0.3%，网易跌1.33%，快手跌2.76%，哔哩哔哩跌2.21%。 钢铁板块午后拉升 重庆钢铁股份盘中突破130% 午后，港股钢铁板块持续拉升。重庆钢铁股份盘中涨幅一度扩大至135.56%。截至收盘，涨 幅回落至91.11%，报1.72港元/股。该公司A股也于午后快速拉升并封住涨停。此外 ...

今天，A股板块快速轮动， 盘面呈现明显共振特点，一是股期共振，二是A股顺周期板块之间共振。 A股市场和商品市场紧密联动，成为今天盘面一大特点。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 创业板 | | --- | --- | | 3454.79 | 10412.63 2123.72 | | -2.96 -0.09% - - 63.66 -0.61% - - 24.20 -1.13% | | | 跌3284 涨1945 > | | 商品市场上， 多晶硅、玻璃期货领涨， 多晶硅涨停，玻璃涨超6%， 工业硅、硅铁等品种跟涨。A股市 场上，光伏、玻璃、钢铁等板块大涨。 重庆钢铁（601005）放量大涨，8分钟内拉升涨停。重庆钢铁股份（H股）涨幅更为明显，盘中一度涨 超130%，收盘涨幅为91.11%。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%， 全市场 成交额约1.41万亿元。 | 涨幅跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日増减仓 | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 6.48% | | | 工业硅2509 | 8210 | 4.79% | | 持仓量 | 氧化 ...

场内近3300股飘绿，医药板块回落，海辰药业跌约10%，荣昌生物跌超8%；券商、保险板块走弱；钢铁 板块午后爆发，盛德鑫泰涨17%，重庆钢铁、柳钢股份、首钢股份均涨停；海洋经济概念崛起，克莱特、 深水海纳等涨停；光伏产业链股拉升，秀强股份、大烨智能、通威股份、亚玛顿等均涨停。 港股方面，金山软件跌近10%，理想汽车、华虹半导体跌约3%；重庆钢铁股份午后狂拉，收盘涨超 90%，盘中一度暴涨超130%。 减限产消息扰动，钢铁、光伏概念爆发。 2日，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指、科创50指数等跌超1%；港股震荡回落，恒生科技指数翻绿。 具体来看，沪指、上证50指数在银行等板块的带动下表现坚挺，创业板指、科创50指数等均走弱。截至收 盘，沪指微跌0.09%报3454.79点，深证成指跌0.61%报10412.63点，创业板指跌1.13%报2123.72点， 科创50指数、北证50指数均跌超1%；沪深北三市合计成交14053亿元，较此前一日减少逾900亿元。 港股方面，重庆钢铁股份涨超90%，盘中一度暴涨超130%；鞍钢股份涨近13%。 消息面上，唐山环保减限产力度加大，市场流传唐山市场7月4日—15日的减排限产措施的消 ...

一、行情回顾 市场全天缩量调整，创业板指跌超1%。海洋经济概念逆势大涨，神开股份、巨力索具、东方海洋等近20股涨停。光伏板块集体反弹，通威股份、欧晶科 技、赛伍技术等十余股封板。钢铁板块午后拉升，柳钢股份、重庆钢铁、首钢股份涨停。下跌方面，军工股集体调整，北方长龙等跌超10%。个股跌多涨 少，沪深京三市超3200股飘绿，今日成交1.41万亿。 二、当日热点 1.海洋经济 海洋经济板块今日大涨，吉鑫科技3连板，东方海洋、神开股份、巨力索具等多股涨停。 据新华社7月1日报道，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平7月1日上午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究海洋 经济高质量发展等问题。会议指出，要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经济；要提高海洋科技自主创新能力，强化 海洋战略科技力量，培育发展海洋科技领军企业和专精特新中小企业；推动海上风电规范有序建设，发展现代化远洋捕捞，发展海洋生物医药、生物制品， 推动海运业高质量发展；要加强海湾经济发展规划研究，有序推进沿海港口群优化整合等。 | 股票名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in high-priced stocks, while the deep-sea technology sector shows strong performance with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - A total of 60 stocks reached the daily limit up, with 12 stocks in a continuous rise, and 8 of them achieving three consecutive limit ups, reflecting a progression rate of 53.33% for limit-up stocks [1] - The overall market saw more than 3200 stocks decline, with notable drops in popular stocks such as Changcheng Military Industry, which fell over 7%, and several others hitting the limit down [1] Group 2 - The deep-sea technology sector was particularly strong, with stocks like Kelaite and Shenshui Haina hitting the daily limit up, and others like Daye Intelligent and Guolian Aquatic rising by 20% [1] - The photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend, led by the photovoltaic glass sub-sector, with stocks such as Yamaton and Yaopi Glass also reaching the daily limit up [1][2] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Chengbang Co. achieving a five consecutive limit up but experiencing significant fluctuations during trading [1]

Group 1 - The central government has set the tone for eliminating backward production capacity, leading to a significant increase in commodity prices, with polysilicon contracts hitting the limit up and rising nearly 7% [1] - Polysilicon has formed a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, attracting macro funds for increased allocation [1][7] - The main contract for polysilicon has surged, breaking through the 35,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative rebound of over 14% from the bottom [3] Group 2 - Recent price increases in polysilicon are attributed to three main factors: 1. Growing expectations for policy changes aimed at clearing out "involution" competition, with references to the 2015 supply-side reform [5] 2. A significant price drop of about 20% from approximately 38,500 yuan/ton to around 30,400 yuan/ton, leading to a price correction as it fell below some manufacturers' production costs [6] 3. Rising industrial silicon prices, which support the production costs of polysilicon [7] Group 3 - The glass industry has seen a price increase of over 6%, with the main contract currently around 1,048 yuan/ton, as major photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10] - This reduction is expected to lead to a rapid decline in domestic photovoltaic glass supply, improving the supply-demand imbalance in the industry [10] - The photovoltaic industry is a key focus for the government's efforts to address "involution" competition, with clear policy directions anticipated to improve the overall industry profitability by 2025 [10]

交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月2日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 现货价格及基差 | を业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 技资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011 1292号 2025年7月2日 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 6月30日 | 品相 | 7月1日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 8200 | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8450 | 50 | 0.59% | | | 440 | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 420 | 20 | 4.76% | | | 8800 | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | 8800 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | -30 | 基差(SI4210基准) | -60 | | -30 | -100.00% | | | 8000 | 新疆99硅 | | 7900 | 100 | 1.27% | | | 740 | 基 ...