Market Overview - In September, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a volatile pattern, with domestic economic recovery showing uneven momentum and real estate chain drag persisting[5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut led to short-term market fluctuations, while sectors like batteries and semiconductors outperformed due to policy expectations and price rebounds[5] Investment Focus - The focus for October is on "technology growth," with A-shares confirming a tech narrative and Hong Kong stocks advancing in both technology and non-ferrous metals[5] - Key events include the unveiling of Xiaopeng's fifth-generation humanoid robot on October 24 and new drug progress announcements from Chinese pharmaceutical companies at the ESMO conference in mid-October[5] Policy and Economic Outlook - October is a critical policy layout window, with the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan," leading to rising capital market expectations[5] - The market anticipates another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in October, which could benefit the Hong Kong market due to its linked exchange rate system[5] Key Investment Themes - **Technology Growth and High-End Manufacturing**: Emphasis on digital economy, aerospace information, and high-end equipment, with recommendations to focus on satellite internet and AI[5] - **Resource Cycle Optimization**: Global inventory cycles are bottoming out, with industrial metals like copper and cobalt expected to see price increases driven by demand from new energy[5] - **Structural Recovery in Consumption**: Anticipated strong consumption data during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with a focus on high-quality segments like medical consumption and travel chains[5] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, commercialization outcomes falling short of expectations, and delays in product development and market entry[5]

Group 1 - Since September, brokerages have actively conducted research ratings on individual stocks, providing decision-making references for investors and indicating directions for future layouts [1] - In September, brokerages raised ratings for a total of 40 stocks, including Boss Electric, Zhou Dasheng, and Yanzhou Coal, which were upgraded from "Recommended" to "Strongly Recommended" [1] - A total of 1518 stocks received "Buy" ratings from brokerages, with BYD receiving the highest number of 18 "Buy" ratings from different brokerages [1] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical and biological industry had the highest number of stocks receiving "Buy" ratings, totaling 165, followed by the electronics industry with 154 stocks [2] - Brokerages expanded their research coverage, initiating coverage on 504 stocks, with Tengya Precision receiving ratings from four brokerages, including a "Strongly Recommended" rating from China Merchants Securities [2] - The chief economist of Samoyed Cloud Technology Group stated that brokerages' deep research and timely rating updates provide valuable information for investors, helping them to effectively avoid risks and seize opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.58% and closing at a daily high, marking four consecutive days of gains [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Tianqi Lithium and Duofluoride, both hitting the daily limit up, while other companies like Juhua Co., Jinfa Technology, and New Energy Technology saw significant increases of over 6% [1] - Recent positive developments in the solid-state battery sector, including a government plan to accelerate the application of solid-state battery materials, are expected to boost market demand [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have outperformed expectations [4] - Analysts suggest focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [4] - The demand side is stabilizing as the impact of U.S. tariffs diminishes, while supply-side improvements are expected due to the exit of European chemical capacity and domestic policies aimed at eliminating outdated production [4] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks, providing exposure to leading companies in various chemical sectors [5] - The ETF offers a more efficient way to invest in the chemical sector, allowing investors to capture opportunities across different sub-industries [5] - As of September 26, the price-to-book ratio of the underlying index for the Chemical ETF is at 2.26, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the glyphosate industry due to its price increase and potential growth from innovative drugs [5]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.95% in the fourth week of September, lagging behind the Shanghai A-share index, which rose by 0.21% [2][13]. - The dynamic PE of the chemical sector is 28.52 times, which is higher than the average PE of 23.89 times since 2015 [2][13]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, recommending Jiangshan Chemical for benefiting from glyphosate price increases and Wanhu Chemical and Baofeng Energy as industry leaders likely to benefit from the chemical sector's recovery [5]. Industry Performance - In the fourth week of September, 13 sub-industries in the chemical sector rose while 19 fell. The top five gaining sub-industries were: - Viscose (+6.42%) - Explosives (+4.05%) - Other chemical products (+3.96%) - Other fibers (+3.06%) - Polyester (+2.89%) - The top five declining sub-industries were: - SW Oil Trade (-12.17%) - SW Tires (-6.60%) - SW Oil Processing (-2.54%) - SW Polyurethane (-2.04%) - SW Chlor-alkali (-0.05%) [3][17]. Chemical Prices and Spreads - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: - Methyl acrylate (+8.03%) - Dichloropropane (+6.15%) - PTA (+4.51%) - Isobutyl acrylate (+4.32%) - PX (CFR China) (+3.64%) - The top five products with the largest price declines were: - Liquid chlorine (-51.01%) - Tetrachloroethylene (-4.91%) - Neopentyl glycol (-4.88%) - Methyl chloride (-4.76%) - Organic silicon DMC (-4.35%) [4][21]. Inventory Changes - The report notes significant inventory changes for key products: - Polyester chips (-10.17%) - Ethylene glycol (+7.77%) - Monoammonium phosphate (+7.49%) - Polyester filament (-5.86%) - Propylene oxide (+5.30%) [5][63].

该基金紧密跟踪中证全指原材料指数，旨在反映A股市场原材料行业代表性公司的整体表现。中证全指 原材料指数精准聚焦"反内卷"赛道，覆盖有色金属、基础化工、钢铁、建材等7个核心板块，"反内 卷"含量超90%。前十大权重股包括紫金矿业、万华化学等各细分行业龙头。指数样本每半年调整一 次，采用自由流通市值加权，为投资者提供了跟踪原材料板块的投资工具。 截至9月26日，该指数当前市净率仅为2.04倍，低于中证细分化工产业主题指数、中证申万有色金属指 数等其他同类指数，契合周期行业"买在低估值"的逻辑。 信达证券分析指出，第一，"反内卷"有望推动产能过剩下行拐点出现；第二，随着产能过剩化解进程加 快，PPI也有望迎来上行拐点。不过需要注意的是，"反内卷"过程中可能出现制造业增长动能阶段性衰 减的情况，要同时实现稳增长目标，还需同步配套需求侧政策工具。若能辅以有效的扩大需求举措，本 轮"反内卷"政策的持续落地有望为资本市场带来牛市支撑。 华泰证券研报称，PPI同比及工业企业利润有望延续修复态势。今年8月工业企业盈利同比较7月的-1.5% 大幅上行至20.4%，或主要受到去年同期低基数的提振，其中营收同比增速较7月的1.1%温 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continued to rise on September 29, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching an intraday high of 1.49% and closing up 1.36% [1] - Key stocks leading the surge included fluorine chemicals, lithium batteries, and modified plastics, with notable gains from companies like Duofu Duo and Tianci Materials, which rose over 9% and 6% respectively [1][3] - A significant breakthrough in lithium battery technology was reported by Tsinghua University, achieving an energy density of 604Wh/kg, nearly three times that of existing commercial batteries, which could drive innovation in electric vehicles and energy storage systems [2][3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.26, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some areas like lubricants have exceeded expectations [4] - Analysts suggest that the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector are improving due to the end of tariff impacts and the exit of European chemical capacity, alongside domestic policies aimed at eliminating outdated production [4][5]

Group 1 - The basic chemical industry is showing a clear rebound trend, with fundamental risks largely cleared [1] - By the first half of 2025, the basic chemical industry has entered a phase of negative capital expenditure, with construction projects down 15% year-on-year, alleviating supply-side pressure [1] - Benefiting from fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the steady advancement of "two new" policies and "anti-involution" policies, demand is expected to increase, optimizing the supply-demand structure and continuously opening up profit margins in the chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The valuation of multiple varieties in the bulk commodity sector is at historical lows, providing a high safety margin and potential for high elasticity [1] - New materials and technologies are key development directions, with room for improvement in product penetration rates and domestic substitution, supported by industry demand and policies, leading to improved profitability and further valuation enhancement [1] - Green and environmentally friendly new technologies, such as chemical recycling of waste plastics, are supported by policies and are set to be a development direction for the coming years, with multiple catalysts including carbon taxes, legislation on recycled plastics, and the maturation of industrial technologies [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (000813), which selects listed company securities from chemical raw materials, fertilizers, agricultural chemicals, and specialty chemicals to reflect the overall performance of high-growth and technologically advanced chemical enterprises [1]

中仑新材最新股东户数17362户，环比下降16.32%，筹码集中以来股价下跌5.27%，累计换手率为 78.74%。 进一步统计，有60只创业板股筹码呈连续集中的态势，相比之前各期，股东户数连续减少3期以上，股 东户数最多已连降8期。 哈焊华通最新股东户数为17501户，连续减少8期，累计降幅为29.34%；*ST清研最新股东户数为3470 户，连续减少7期，累计降幅为35.16%；华润材料最新股东户数为22703户，连续减少7期，累计降幅为 12.26%。股东户数连降期间，从累计降幅看，金春股份、*ST清研、邵阳液压等股东户数降幅最多，累 计降幅分别为35.75%、35.16%、34.03%。 市场表现方面，最新一期筹码集中股9月11日以来平均下跌3.02%，涨幅居前的有倍杰特、杭州高新、 华自科技等，分别上涨31.77%、27.69%、23.14%。所属行业来看，筹码集中股中机械设备、基础化 工、计算机等行业最为集中，分别有29只、26只、22只个股上榜。 360只创业板股公布截至9月20日最新股东户数，环比上期，股东户数下降的有195只，降幅超过一成的 有22只。 资金面上，部分筹码集中股获杠杆资金青睐 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of rising international oil prices and the decline in prices of vitamins and nylon [2] - Key areas of focus for September include the effects of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Industry Dynamics - The basic chemical industry experienced a decline of 0.95% in the week of September 22-28, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries [9] - The oil and petrochemical industry saw a smaller decline of 0.12%, ranking 10th [9] - Among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 43 saw declines, and 32 remained stable [9] - The average price of 34% of products increased month-on-month, while 52% decreased [9] - The report notes significant fluctuations in the prices of various chemicals, with liquid ammonia and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid showing notable price increases [9] Price Trends - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures closing at $65.72 per barrel, a weekly increase of 4.85%, and Brent crude at $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% [9] - The report indicates a potential for oil prices to remain high due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ interventions, despite pressures from tariff policies and increased production [9] - The report also notes a decline in vitamin prices due to weak downstream demand, with vitamin A and E prices dropping significantly compared to last year [9][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the oil and gas sector, particularly those with stable dividend policies and strong performance in the upstream capital expenditure [12] - It recommends monitoring developments in new materials, especially in electronic materials and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to see significant growth [12] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology firms in the semiconductor and electronic materials sectors [12]

Group 1 - As of September 28, 154 public fund institutions participated in A-share market research activities, covering 28 industries and involving 605 listed companies with a total of 4,275 research instances [1] - From September 1 to 28, 70 listed companies saw stock price increases exceeding 20%, with 19 companies experiencing gains over 40%. The mechanical equipment sector stood out, with World achieving a remarkable increase of 113.77%, attracting attention from 30 public fund institutions [3] - During the same period, 44 listed companies were researched by public fund institutions at least 20 times, with Crystal Machine Electric leading with 81 instances of research [3] Group 2 - The research activities of public fund institutions were primarily concentrated in 18 industries, with the mechanical equipment sector being the most focused, involving 90 listed companies. Key companies included Huichuan Technology, Zoomlion, and Jepter [4] - The electronics sector ranked second, with 83 listed companies and a total of 702 research instances, highlighting companies like Shenzhen South Circuit, Jingchen Co., and Juguang Technology as focal points [4] - Other industries with high research activity included electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [4]