Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that United Parcel Service (UPS) will report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.9%, with revenues expected to reach $20.85 billion, down 4.4% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.5%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts of their initial forecasts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior regarding the stock, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts forecast 'Revenue- Supply Chain Solutions' to be $2.78 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 16.4% [5]. - The 'Revenue- International Package' is expected to be $4.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 2.9% year-over-year [5]. - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- U.S. Domestic Package' stands at $13.83 billion, showing a decline of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter [5]. Key Metrics - 'Revenue- International Package- Cargo and other' is projected to be $164.91 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.2% [6]. - The 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Total' is expected to be $20.58, down from $21.42 in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Export' is estimated at 1.60 million, slightly up from 1.58 million a year ago [7]. - 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Domestic' is projected to remain at 1.49 million, consistent with the previous year's figure [7]. - 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Ground' is expected to reach $11.47, compared to $10.92 a year ago [8]. - The 'Average revenue per piece - U.S. Domestic Package - Total' is projected at $13.15, up from $12.35 in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Domestic' is expected to be $8.02, slightly down from $8.10 a year ago [9]. - The 'Average revenue per piece - International Package - Export' is projected at $32.34, down from $33.90 in the same quarter last year [9]. - The average prediction for 'Average daily package volume - International Package - Total' is 3.09 million, compared to 3.07 million in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, UPS shares have returned +4.2%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +5.7% [11]. - UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent collaboration between Zhengzhou Public Transport Group and Henan Shunfeng Express has sparked public interest, although the actual implementation of a "daytime passenger transport and nighttime cargo transport" model has not yet commenced [2][5]. Group 1: Company Collaboration - Zhengzhou Public Transport and Henan Shunfeng have signed a strategic cooperation agreement, focusing primarily on expanding the scope and content of property leasing rather than immediate transportation collaboration [2][3]. - The public transport company currently maintains a clear separation between passenger and cargo services, with no current plans to mix these operations [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhengzhou Public Transport's bus operation revenue accounted for 62.97% of its main business income, with a gross margin of -604.1%, while property leasing contributed 10.19% with a gross margin of 87.42% [2]. - The low fare structure of Zhengzhou Public Transport, with a flat rate of one yuan regardless of distance, reflects its strong public service orientation [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - National public transport passenger volumes have been declining, with figures dropping from 691.76 billion in 2019 to an estimated 380.5 billion in 2023, indicating a need for public transport companies to optimize resource utilization [3]. - The integration of public transport and logistics services, such as the "bus + express delivery" model, is being explored in various cities to alleviate operational challenges and enhance efficiency [4][5]. Group 4: Policy and Implementation Challenges - Successful implementation of the "bus + express delivery" model requires a supportive policy environment, as seen in cities like Nanjing, where pilot projects align with regulatory changes [5]. - Challenges such as route design and vehicle scheduling must be addressed to maximize the economic and social benefits of this integration [5].

Group 1 - Starbucks has launched "self-study rooms" in several stores in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, allowing customers to study without fees, time limits, or reservations, and providing free power outlets and water [1][2] - The company is granting more autonomy to its Chinese team, as evidenced by recent price reductions on key products and collaborations with popular brands, indicating a shift towards more flexible operations [2][4] - Starbucks China reported a revenue of $739.7 million (approximately 5.317 billion RMB) for the latest fiscal quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, while same-store sales remained flat [4][5] Group 2 - The increase in customers using the self-study rooms may impact the overall customer experience at Starbucks, which is a consideration for the company [3] - Comparatively, Luckin Coffee reported a revenue growth of 41.2% to 8.87 billion RMB in the first quarter, highlighting competitive pressures on Starbucks [5] - There are ongoing rumors regarding the potential sale of Starbucks' stake in China, with speculation that the company may retain 30% of its shares while distributing the rest among multiple buyers [5][6]

Core Insights - China has achieved significant milestones in transportation infrastructure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, establishing the world's largest high-speed rail network, highway network, and express delivery network [1][3][4] - The comprehensive transportation system has made remarkable progress, with 17 key indicators related to transportation infrastructure construction, six of which have been completed ahead of schedule for 2024 [3][4] Transportation Infrastructure - The "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network has been completed at 81.5%, with operational mileage reaching 48,000 kilometers, accounting for over 70% of the world's total high-speed rail mileage [4] - The national highway mileage has reached 191,000 kilometers, covering 99% of cities with populations over 200,000 [4] - Urban rail transit operational mileage is approximately 11,000 kilometers, ranking first globally, while urban public transport lines total 1.75 million kilometers [4] Passenger Travel Trends - Daily self-driving trips average about 130 million, representing over 70% of cross-regional travel [7] - Daily rail passenger volume is projected to reach 3.272 billion in 2024, accounting for 75.9% of total railway passenger volume [7] - The civil aviation sector serves over 2 million passengers daily, with 40 airports handling more than 10 million passengers annually [7][8] Express Delivery Sector - China has maintained the world's largest express delivery volume for 11 consecutive years, with an average of over 500 million packages collected daily [9] - The express delivery business revenue is expected to grow from 1.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 1.7 trillion yuan by 2024, with an annual growth rate of 11.3% [9] - The volume of express deliveries is projected to increase from approximately 83 billion packages in 2020 to 175 billion packages by 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate of around 20% [9] Logistics and Supply Chain - The logistics sector is enhancing efficiency through AI and automation, with the highest daily collection volume reaching 729 million packages [9][10] - The railway sector is expected to transport over 250 billion tons of goods during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an increase of 50 billion tons compared to the previous plan [10] - Cold chain logistics and new supply chain models are being developed to support the distribution of high-quality agricultural products and e-commerce [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the Southeast Asian e-commerce market, highlighting TikTok Shop as an industry dark horse and J&T Express as a key player in logistics [2][7]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market continues to show robust growth, with a projected total transaction value (GMV) of $128.4 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%. Indonesia remains the largest market, contributing $56.5 billion, which accounts for 44% of the region's total GMV [8][11]. - TikTok Shop is rapidly expanding, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 39% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 235% from 2021 to 2024. In 2024, TikTok Shop's GMV reached $22.6 billion, capturing a market share of 17.6% [11][18]. - J&T Express is positioned as a leading third-party logistics provider, benefiting from its partnership with TikTok Shop, particularly in Indonesia, where it holds a significant market share [23][24]. Summary by Sections Market Size - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is expected to reach a GMV of $128.4 billion in 2024, with Indonesia contributing $56.5 billion, followed by Thailand and Malaysia with growth rates of 21.7% and 19.5%, respectively [8][11]. Competitive Landscape - Shopee remains the market leader with a GMV of $66.8 billion and a 52% market share. TikTok Shop's rapid growth has narrowed the gap, while Lazada maintains a stable position with a GMV of $18 billion and a 14% market share [11][18]. Logistics Sector - J&T Express has demonstrated competitive pricing, with its average price per shipment decreasing from $0.87 in H1 2023 to $0.67 by H2 2024, leading to a market share increase of 3.2 percentage points to 28.6% [29][30].

Transportation and Commuting - Approximately 1 billion people use rail transit for efficient commuting daily, another 1 billion use buses, and 1 billion use taxis and ride-hailing services for door-to-door travel, reflecting the urban transportation capacity and resilience [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, around 350 million people traveled by air, making China the country with the largest aviation population globally, currently at 470 million [2] Passenger Transport Statistics - Last year, civil aviation passenger transport volume exceeded 700 million, with expectations to surpass 770 million this year [3] - In the first half of this year, the national railway sent a total of 2.24 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, setting a historical record for the same period [5] High-Speed Rail and Infrastructure - The operational mileage of urban rail transit reached approximately 11,000 kilometers, ranking first in the world, while urban bus routes totaled 1.75 million kilometers, increasing by 48.5% and 18.3% respectively compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4] - There are currently 20 high-speed rail lines operating at speeds of 350 km/h, covering about 7,000 kilometers, with daily passenger volume reaching new highs, including over 23 million on May 1 [6] Transportation Network Development - China has built the world's largest high-speed rail network, expressway network, and postal express network [7] - High-speed rail operational mileage accounts for over 70% of the world's total, and expressways cover 99% of cities with populations over 200,000 [8] Rural and Postal Services - By the end of 2024, the total mileage of rural roads is expected to reach 4.64 million kilometers, establishing a basic rural transportation network [8] - The postal industry has established over 500,000 service outlets, with express delivery volume ranking first globally for 11 consecutive years, averaging over 500 million parcels collected daily [9] Revenue and Growth in Express Delivery - Postal industry revenue increased from 1.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 1.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 11.3% [10] - Express delivery volume grew from approximately 83 billion parcels in 2020 to 175 billion parcels in 2024, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 20%, achieving a peak daily collection of 729 million parcels [10]

Core Insights - FedEx views China as a core part of its development strategy, citing the country's robust economic growth and potential for market expansion as key opportunities for the company [2][7] - The Chinese supply chain is undergoing significant changes, with advancements in digital transformation and the integration of artificial intelligence, enhancing the resilience and value of the supply chain [3][4] Group 1: Market Potential and Supply Chain Changes - China is recognized for its complete industrial chain, deep division of labor, and efficient collaboration, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment [4] - The Chinese supply chain is evolving with a focus on high-value ecosystems, driven by digital transformation and AI integration [3][4] - In 2024, China's manufacturing scale is projected to remain the largest globally for the 15th consecutive year, highlighting its critical role in the global supply chain [2] Group 2: Investment Plans and Strategic Focus - FedEx plans to enhance its routes from China to Europe, capitalizing on the growing trade between China and the EU, which saw imports and exports reach 2.82 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [6] - The company aims to upgrade its network in the Asia-Pacific region to support increasing transportation demands between China and Southeast Asia, following the completion of the RCEP 3.0 negotiations [6] - FedEx is focusing on empowering the supply chain in key areas such as cross-border e-commerce and heavy freight transportation, providing solutions for B2B and B2C exports and imports [6] Group 3: Sustainability Initiatives - FedEx is actively implementing green initiatives in China, with 20% of its delivery fleet now electric vehicles, and aims for global carbon neutrality by 2040 [8][10] - The company has received LEED Gold certification for its Shanghai headquarters, showcasing its commitment to sustainable infrastructure [8] - FedEx is also providing tools to help clients track their carbon emissions, supporting their sustainability goals [8][10] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities in Green Logistics - The logistics industry's transition to green practices is becoming essential due to regulatory and market demands, with the Chinese government promoting green logistics development as part of its broader economic strategy [9][10] - The need for logistics companies to invest in sustainable practices, including infrastructure upgrades and low-carbon technologies, is critical for reducing carbon emissions [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows significant divergence in June data, with a focus on the industry's anti-involution process [3] - The express logistics market is expanding, supported by the national strategy to boost domestic demand, with a year-on-year growth of 15.8% in express delivery volume in June 2025 [5] - The performance of major express companies varies, with SF Express maintaining a business volume growth rate of over 30%, while other companies like YTO Express and Yunda Express show slower growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with total revenue of 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% [5][24] - Major express companies' performance in June: YTO Express (2.627 billion pieces, +19.34%), Yunda Express (2.173 billion pieces, +7.41%), SF Express (1.460 billion pieces, +31.77%) [4][28] - The market share for these companies is 15.6% for YTO, 12.9% for both Yunda and Shentong, and 8.7% for SF Express [4] Air Transportation - The air travel sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in passenger transport volume in June 2025 [52] - Major airlines are projected to improve their performance in Q2 2025 due to better supply-demand dynamics and lower oil prices [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is anticipated to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and a favorable economic environment, with a focus on crude oil transportation [16] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 27.8% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the bulk shipping market [11][68] - Container throughput at Chinese ports showed a slight increase in cargo volume but a decrease in container throughput [81] Road and Rail - In June 2025, road freight volume increased by 2.86% year-on-year, while rail freight volume rose by 7.36% [45] - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with a slight increase in freight truck traffic [14] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International and Debon Logistics are expected to benefit from strategic transformations and improved profitability [15]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Airline Industry**: White Cloud Airport, Hainan Airlines, China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Huaxia Airlines - **Shipping Industry**: Jinjiang Shipping, Antong Holdings - **Express Logistics Industry**: Jitu Express, SF Express, Shentong, Yunda, YTO Express - **Chemical Industry**: TDI market, high-speed resin market, various sub-industries - **Steel Industry**: General steel market performance and outlook - **Coal Industry**: Current market conditions and challenges Core Points and Arguments Airline Industry Performance - White Cloud Airport reported a Q2 profit of 450 million yuan, with net profit excluding non-recurring items at 290 million yuan, stable compared to Q1 [3] - Hainan Airlines expects a mid-term profit of 45 to 65 million yuan, despite a slight loss in Q2 [3] - China National Aviation anticipates a mid-term net profit increase of 78% to 90%, driven by fleet expansion and lower fuel prices [3] - Huaxia Airlines showed strong performance with a Q2 profit of approximately 160 million yuan, exceeding expectations [3] Shipping Industry Growth - Jinjiang Shipping's net profit for H1 is expected to be between 780 million to 810 million yuan, a significant increase of 146% to 155% due to rising demand in Southeast Asia [4] - Antong Holdings reported a net profit of 490 million to 540 million yuan, with a growth of 218% to 250% attributed to adjustments in shipping capacity [4] Express Logistics Sector Highlights - Jitu Express saw a 66% increase in package volume in Southeast Asia and a 14.7% increase in China, benefiting from strong TikTok e-commerce growth [5] - SF Express reported a 32% growth in business volume in June, with Shentong surpassing Yunda in revenue for the first time since 2020 [5] Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry’s operating rate fell to 71.9%, the lowest in history, with significant implications for older production facilities [8] - TDI market supply has contracted significantly, leading to rapid price increases, though sustainability of these price hikes is uncertain [12] - High-speed resin market demand remains strong, with companies like Shengjun Group expected to see a 50% increase in sales [13] Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry is experiencing the lowest production and inventory levels historically, with a potential recovery driven by government policies [15] - Major steel companies have seen a 20% increase in stock prices, with expectations of further profit growth in the coming months [15] Coal Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Coal companies reported mixed results, with some facing significant declines while others, like Baotai Long, turned losses into profits [18] - The coal market is currently in a destocking phase, with rising demand from electricity and chemical sectors [19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The launch of the official direct sales platform by Hanglv Zongheng APP aims to enhance ticket sales efficiency for airlines, potentially reducing reliance on OTA platforms [6] - The government’s redefinition of old equipment standards in the petrochemical industry may significantly impact sectors with high old capacity ratios [9] - The chemical sector is expected to face downward pressure in Q3, but certain products like refrigerants and high-speed resins are projected to perform well [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's supply-side reforms are expected to benefit major oil companies and private refining enterprises [20][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in business volume and revenue, with June revenue reaching 26.254 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and express logistics business volume at 1.46 billion tickets, up 31.77% year-on-year [2][3] - The company has successfully transformed into a comprehensive logistics leader, with new business segments achieving market-leading positions and contributing to revenue and profit improvements [6][7] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company reported a business volume increase of 31.20% year-on-year and revenue growth of 12.41% [3] - The company’s business volume has been accelerating since 2025, significantly outpacing industry growth rates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for the company in 2025 is projected to be 315.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 11.91 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [8] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2025 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2025 [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 14.26 billion in 2026 and 16.85 billion in 2027, representing growth rates of 19.7% and 18.2% respectively [7][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 29.33 in 2023 to 20.28 in 2025, indicating potential value appreciation [8]