有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 变化 -5 - ...

◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 9 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.13%至 78910 元/吨。关 税对铜价影响再度提升，中美元首通话也带来利多预期，铜价偏强，振 幅扩大。基本面上，国内硫酸市场多区域上行趋势明显，炼厂生产得以 维持，精铜产量依然保持高位，但供应端的扰动及极低的 TC 依然对铜价 有潜在支撑。目前铜社会库存低位企稳，市场消费呈现下滑趋势，炼厂 则考虑安排出口。市场高升水、高月差在铜价上涨之后有所转弱。整体 来看，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，基本面的支撑相较此前有所减弱，铜价 上行空间将受到限制。但基于目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存， 下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期或仍维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 9 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.20%至 20025 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内亚矿端扰动尚 未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到 7 月份才 能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 135 万 吨至 9065 万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少 2 ...

中国 5 月通胀数据基本符合预期 我国国内物价水平偏低的问题仍在持续，出口和进口走弱的压 力均开始凸显。基本面依然利多债市。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-10 宏观策略（国债期货） 日度报告——综合晨报 中美经贸磋商机制会议在英国伦敦举行 综 从 5 月外贸数据看，即便联合声明已达成，但中美经贸往来却无 明显改善，反映美国政策的不确定性已经从中期角度改变了企 业的基准预期。持续跟踪中美会谈的结果。 合 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 晨 亚马逊还考虑在美国宾州投资另外 100 亿美元 报 市场等待中美贸易协商进展，科技板块延续涨势，三大股指波 动降低，涨跌不一。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 全国主要地区菜油库存统计 国内豆棕油累库，等待 MPOB 数据发布。 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 华东市场炼焦煤偏弱运行 短期来看，当前双焦基本面并没有发生质的变化，短期仍按反 弹对待，但宏观环境变化，因此需关注整体工业品带来的变化， 谨慎追多，建议观望为主 能源化工（原油） 中国 5 月原油进口量环比下降 油价反弹，美伊谈判进展不明朗支撑油价。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

宏观氛围回暖，铜强铝弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 6 月 9 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 铜：宏观氛围回暖，资金关注度上升，铜价震荡上行 上周铜价震荡上行，周四铜价增仓上行明显，主力期价一度站上 7.9 万关口。我们认为铜价的拉升一方面是中美关系趋于缓和，宏观 氛围回暖；另一方面是金融属性导致的补涨，从估值角度，无论是金 铜比还是金银比都处于历史高位。产业层面，节后电解铜社库小幅上 升，7-8 月差持续收窄，给予期价一定压力。整体来看，宏观利好铜 价，产业端进入淡季后市场对其消费预期较差，叠加库存边际上升， 使铜价承压。短期 ...

"当前我国铜产业链呈现'原料进口紧缺、冶炼内卷严重、加工生存困难'的窘境。" 今年以来，铜价呈现"过山车"行情，其中沪铜期货主力合约创出阶段性新高后陡坡下行，有所反弹后维 持震荡行情。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达分析称，未来一个月，铜价预计将在7.5万至8.3万元/吨区间波动，铜价高位 偏强震荡为主，整体抗跌性强，中长期来看铜价重心异涨难跌，关注全球政治经贸及供应链调整等潜在 风险。 从铜产业链的情况来看，顾冯达认为，当前我国铜产业链呈现"原料进口紧缺、冶炼内卷严重、加工生 存困难"的窘境。2025年中国铜企转型的核心特征可概括为产业转型升级、风险管理常态化。 金田股份（601609.SH）高级副总裁郑敦对第一财经记者称，该公司近几年两条腿走路，一方面在传统 赛道中，不断提高技术，推动产业往高端方向发展，另一方面在国家支持和鼓励的战略新兴赛道加大布 局力度，这部分的业务占比大幅上升。同时，为降低铜价带来的风险，根据订单和生产需求进行套期保 值。 季先飞也称，现在整个铜产业链从冶炼到终端消费，都处于压低利润的状态，冶炼方面若按照加工费来 计算，已经处于亏损状态，铜材加工企业的利润也较低，终端企业也不断往前端压价格 ...

数据显示，6月9日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22590.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（21910.00元/吨）升 水680.00元/吨。 （6月9日）今日全国锌价格一览 表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 型 | | | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22640元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | | 吨 | | | | | 火炬 0#锌 | 22850元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/金华 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 红鹭 0#锌 | 22700元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/温州 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 飞龙 0#锌 | 22700元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/台州 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22600元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市 | | | 吨 | ...

编号：2025-08 投 资 者 关 系 活 动类别 ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他 参 与 单 位 名 称 及人员姓名 国泰海通 宁紫微；华安证券 黄玺 洪慧 罗鑫； 西安清善 欧阳昕 郭亚辉。 时间 2025 年 6 月 9 日 地点 公司会议室 上 市 公 司 接 待 人员姓名 宝武镁业董秘吴剑飞 宝武镁业证代 杜丽蓉 投 资 者 关 系 活 动 主 要 内 容 介 绍 问：请介绍一下宝武镁业？ 答：宝武镁业科技股份有限公司前身为南京云海特种金属股 份有限公司，成立于 1993 年，2007 年在深交所上市，公司经过 三十多年的发展，成为了集矿业开采、有色金属冶炼和回收加工 为一体的高新技术企业，主营业务为镁、铝合金材料的生产及深 加工、销售业务，主要产品包括镁合金、镁合金压铸件、铝合金、 铝挤压微空调扁管、铝挤压汽车结构件、中间合金以及金属锶等。 产品主要应用于汽车、电动自行车轻量化、消费电子及建筑等领 域。公司拥有"白云石开采-原镁冶炼-镁合金熔炼-镁合金精密铸 造、变形加工-镁合金再生回收"完整产业链，全产业链优化公司 产品成本 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解镍 | 123400 | 123100 | 300 | 0.24% | 7C/HT | | 1#多川镇 | 124500 | 124200 | 300 | 0.24% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2450 | 2450 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 122300 | 122100 | 200 | 0.16% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 250 | 350 | -100 | -- | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -182 | -189 | 7 | -3.68% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3595 | -3563 | -32 | 0.90% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国数据喜忧参半，中国央行连续 7 个月增持黄金，市场关注中美谈判、俄罗 | | | 高位震荡 | 斯报复以及本周美国通胀数据。短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再 | | | | 次集中爆发。长期全球尚在秩序重塑途中，黄金战略配置价值高。【765-790】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 因为白银弹性大，黄金高位调整情况之下，资金关注白银的补涨行情，白银冲 破此前震荡区间，冲击历史新高，风险偏好上升，白银继续上冲需要多方力量 | | | | 配合，背靠区间上沿等待做多。【8700-9000】 | | 铜 | 高位盘整 | 美国非农数据超预期，美元指数反弹，前期宏观利好已经兑现，短期铜多单止盈兑 | | | | 现，警惕铜高位回落风险，卖出套保把握逢高布局机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜 | | | | 关注区间【77900，79200】 | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 国内宏观政策窗口期，锌供应产能高位释放，需求淡季来临和钢材拖累，锌低 | | | | 位震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢 ...