Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling 1.28% to close at 25,760.73 points, and a total trading volume of 164.36 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 1.68% to 9,028.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.58% to 5,534.92 points [1] - The market is shifting focus from external factors to internal policies, particularly looking forward to the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Techtronic Industries (00669) led blue-chip stocks with a 3.15% increase, closing at 94.9 HKD, contributing 6.66 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - WH Group (00288) rose by 1.8% to 8.47 HKD, contributing 1.97 points, while China Life (02628) fell 3.59% to 26.32 HKD, dragging down the index by 11.43 points [2] - Alibaba (09988) decreased by 2.178% to 153.6 HKD, contributing a loss of 51.47 points to the index [2] Sector Performance - Precious metals and copper-aluminum sectors rose against the market trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The automotive sector continued to decline, with companies like XPeng Motors (09868) and GAC Group (02238) reporting significant drops in stock prices [4] - UBS expressed caution regarding the automotive industry's short-term outlook due to weakening market demand [4] Cryptocurrency Sector - Cryptocurrency-related stocks saw gains, with companies like Boyaa Interactive (00434) rising by 5.19% [4] - Bitcoin approached 94,000 USD, marking a two-week high, influenced by rising expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - Vanguard Group's decision to allow trading of cryptocurrency ETFs on its platform indicates a significant shift in stance towards cryptocurrencies [4] New Listings and Notable Stocks - New listings included LeMo Technology (02539), which surged 36.25% to 54.5 HKD, and Jinyan High-Quality Materials (02693), which rose 2.19% to 7.46 HKD [5] - Longpan Technology (02465) saw a significant increase of 12.21% to 16.54 HKD following a long-term procurement agreement worth approximately 4.5 to 5.5 billion CNY [6] - China Pacific Insurance (02328) fell 4% to 17.04 HKD amid rumors regarding the status of its executives [7]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling 1.28% to close at 25,760.73 points, marking a loss of 334.32 points. The total trading volume was 164.36 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 1.68% to 9,028.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.58% to 5,534.92 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Techtronic Industries (00669) led the blue-chip stocks, rising 3.15% to 94.9 HKD, contributing 6.66 points to the Hang Seng Index. Citigroup initiated a 30-day positive catalyst observation for the company [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included WH Group (00288) up 1.8% to 8.47 HKD, while China Life (02628) fell 3.59% to 26.32 HKD, dragging the index down by 11.43 points [2] Sector Highlights - Precious metals and copper-aluminum sectors saw gains amid rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Bitcoin reached a two-week high, boosting some cryptocurrency stocks [3] - The automotive sector continued to decline, with companies like XPeng Motors (09868) down 4.25% and GAC Group (02238) down 2.35%, reflecting weak market demand [4] Cryptocurrency Stocks - Several cryptocurrency-related stocks rose, including Boyaa Interactive (00434) up 5.19% and New Horizon Health (01611) up 2.3%, driven by increasing Bitcoin prices and a shift in institutional attitudes towards cryptocurrency [4] New Listings - Two new stocks debuted, with Lemo Technology (02539) surging 36.25% to 54.5 HKD, and Jinyan Kaolin New Materials (02693) rising 2.19% to 7.46 HKD. Lemo Technology is ranked first in the Chinese massage service market by transaction volume [5][6] Notable Corporate Announcements - Longpan Technology (02465) saw a significant increase of 12.21% to 16.54 HKD after announcing a long-term procurement agreement with Sunwoda for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, expected to generate sales of approximately 4.5 to 5.5 billion CNY [7] - China Pacific Insurance (02328) continued to decline, down 4% to 17.04 HKD, amid rumors regarding the status of its executives [9]

12月3日早盘，沪指窄幅震荡整理，创业板指冲高回落；港股走势疲弱，恒生指数、恒生科技指数盘中 均跌超1%。 具体来看，沪指盘中围绕3900点窄幅震荡，深证成指、创业板指震荡回落，北证50指数相对强势。截至 午间收盘，沪指微跌0.09%报3894.22点，深证成指跌0.19%，创业板指跌0.5%，北证50指数涨0.59%， 沪深北三市合计成交10756亿元。 银河证券认为，2025年美国加征关税、中国反制措施及其他资源国矿产资源管制等政策下的供应链扰 动、美联储降息周期中的流动性宽松，使有色金属价格与行业业绩增速持续提升，确立了有色金属行业 进入新一轮上行周期。2026年上述逻辑有望继续推动有色金属商品价格上涨与提升有色金属企业的盈利 能力，延续有色金属行业的景气上行行情。 培育钻石概念爆发 培育钻石概念盘中大幅走高，截至午间收盘，四方达涨近15%，惠丰钻石涨超10%；黄河旋风涨超9%， 盘中一度涨停；力量钻石涨超5%，国机精工涨超2%。 场内超3500股飘绿，地产、半导体、酿酒等板块疲弱；有色板块逆市拉升，华阳新材、鑫科材料涨停； 煤炭板块上扬，大有能源、安泰集团、新大洲A涨停；培育钻石概念活跃，四方达、惠丰 ...

12月3日，港股指数低开低走，截止午盘，恒生指数跌0.97%报25842.77点，恒生科技指数跌1.3%报 5550.92点，国企指数跌1.26%报9067.4点，红筹指数跌0.64%报4250.67点。 盘面上，科技股集体弱势拖累大市走低，阿里巴巴跌1.97%，腾讯控股跌1.05%，京东集团跌0.26%，小 米集团跌0.79%，网易跌3.3%，美团跌0.67%，快手跌1.67%，哔哩哔哩跌2.7%；有色金属股活跃，中国 铝业涨超5%；汽车股走弱，小鹏汽车跌超3%；生物医药板块普跌，药明合联跌超3%；今日两只新股上 市，乐摩科技涨超56%，金岩高岭新材涨超1%。 企业新闻 中国东方集团(00581.HK)：斥资约5200万元收购江苏神通375.35万股股份。 黑芝麻智能(02533.HK)：拟斥资约4亿-5.5亿元获取珠海亿智电子科技有限公司多数股权，预期收购事项 将于2026年第一季度完成。 国富氢能(02582.HK)：完成配售485.8万股，净筹约1.97亿港元，约60%用于中国及海外氢能项目的融资 投资及合作。 中国秦发(00866.HK)：非全资附属SDE与浙江能源亚太订立供煤协议，将提供15万公吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market presents a complex and diverse situation, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by macro - economic policies, geopolitical factors, and seasonal changes. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures are under pressure and the bond market is affected by the central bank's policies; in the agricultural products market, different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as production capacity, cost, and market sentiment all play important roles in determining prices. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Pressure is evident, and the market will remain volatile in the short term without further positive stimuli [18][19]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions when prices rise, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. Bond Futures - Core view: The central bank's bond purchase scale is lower than expected, and the bond market trend in the short term may be more dominated by investor behavior [22][23]. - Strategy: Take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: International soybean pressure is still obvious, and domestic supply has uncertainties. It is expected to be mainly in a shock operation [26]. - Strategy: Use the strategy of selling a wide - straddle option [26]. Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are bottoming out, and domestic prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [30][31]. - Strategy: Consider building long positions at low levels in the short term, and sell put options at low levels [31]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core view: The shock market continues, with palm oil inventory expected to decrease gradually but still at a relatively high level, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil showing different trends [35]. - Strategy: Adopt the low - buying and high - selling strategy in the short term [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The price of American corn is expected to be strong in the short term, and the price of domestic corn is also strong [38]. - Strategy: Go short on 01 corn at high levels, wait for the callback of 05 and 07 corn, and narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [38]. Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to decline [42]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy and sell a wide - straddle option [43]. Peanuts - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new peanut quality is lower than last year, and the supply of oil peanuts is loose [45]. - Strategy: Go short on 01 peanuts at high levels, wait and see for 05 peanuts, conduct a 15 - contract reverse spread, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 option [46]. Eggs - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The short - term destocking speed is expected to be slow, and the near - month contract is expected to oscillate within a range [49]. - Strategy: Consider building long positions in the far - month contract at low levels [50]. Apples - Core view: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. The apple production has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [54]. - Strategy: Exit and wait and see due to the high price of the 1 - month contract and the approaching delivery risk [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - Strategy: The US cotton is expected to oscillate within a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [58]. Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: They are operating at the bottom and oscillating. The previous decline has priced in some negative factors, and there is a demand for winter storage in the later stage [61]. - Strategy: Try to go long on the far - month contract at low levels [61]. Iron Ore - Core view: It should be treated with a short - selling mindset at high levels. The supply is loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic steel is declining [64]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high levels [65]. Steel - Core view: The steel price is oscillating within a range, and the cost provides support. The black sector is affected by the contract change, and the supply - demand relationship and cost factors jointly affect the price [66]. - Strategy: Maintain an oscillating strategy, conduct the spread trading of hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio, and wait and see for options [67]. Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost drives a short - term rebound, but the demand suppresses the rebound height. The supply of silicon iron and manganese silicon is decreasing, and the cost is rising, but the demand recovery is difficult to last [68][69]. - Strategy: The short - term rebound is driven by cost, and sell a virtual - value straddle option combination [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Trump's hint about the Fed chairperson boosts market sentiment, and silver is leading the rise. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts in December further supports the precious metals [72]. - Strategy: Hold long positions in gold based on the 5 - day moving average, and consider entering the market for silver cautiously at low levels based on the 5 - day moving average. Buy virtual - value call options [72][73]. Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Driven by the macro - economy, they are operating strongly. The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts is strong, but pay attention to the callback risk [75]. - Strategy: Go long on platinum at low levels, be cautious about the callback risk caused by the spread between domestic and foreign markets, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium spread trading, and buy virtual - value call options [75]. Copper - Core view: The overall center of gravity is moving up. The supply of copper ore is still tight in 2026, and the market expects the US to continue to import copper [78]. - Strategy: Take partial profit on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and then buy back on the callback [79]. Alumina - Core view: There is no substantial production reduction, and the price is running weakly. The spot trading is scarce, and it is difficult to promote substantial production reduction [82]. - Strategy: The price is running weakly, and wait and see for spread trading and options [83]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, but the fundamentals provide obvious support. The supply is in a deficit, and the demand has new growth points [86]. - Strategy: The price is oscillating strongly, and consider going long on the callback in the medium term [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: It is oscillating strongly with the aluminum price. The macro - environment improves, but the fundamentals are affected by raw material shortages and uneven demand [91]. - Strategy: Oscillate at a high level with the aluminum price, and wait and see for spread trading and options [91]. Zinc - Core view: It is oscillating in a wide range. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease in December, and the consumption is entering the off - season [93][94]. - Strategy: Settle the previous profitable long positions and wait and see [94]. Lead - Core view: It is oscillating within a range. The cost of secondary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory has decreased [96][97]. - Strategy: Try to go long lightly at low levels and be vigilant about macro - factors [97]. Nickel - Core view: The supply will increase and the demand will decrease in December, so maintain a short - selling position. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to recover [98]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy and sell virtual - value call options [99]. Stainless Steel - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, waiting for macro - economic stimuli [100]. - Strategy: No specific strategy is provided in the text.

Report Summary - **Report Title**: 20251203 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] - **Analyst**: Li Ye [4] - **从业资格号**: F0285557 [4] - **交易咨询号**: Z0002369 [4] - **Email**: liye@sywgqh.com.cn [4] - **Phone**: 021 - 50586241 [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Night session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point, and although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in the copper mine lead to a global supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output and downstream demand [2] - **Zinc**: Night session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output and downstream demand [2] Data Summary | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 88,870 | 65 | 11,145 | 69.18 | 159,425 | 0 | | Aluminum | 21,600 | - 60 | 2,864 | - 30.13 | 537,900 | - 1,150 | | Zinc | 22,385 | 85 | 3,056 | 250.98 | 52,025 | 275 | | Nickel | 116,730 | - 2,870 | 14,740 | - 194.81 | 254,364 | - 396 | | Lead | 17,055 | - 55 | 1,994 | - 42.45 | 260,875 | - 2,300 | | Tin | 304,060 | 7,330 | 38,840 | 92.00 | 3,160 | 0 | [2]

今日沪铜高开高走，日内偏强，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 数据持续疲软，最新数值为 48.2，不仅低于前值 48.7，弱于市场预期的 48.6。全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流 事故停产后，计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏 紧预期将有缓解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复 产，12 月铜国内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼 厂依靠副产品及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买 兴下降，铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的 减少。综合来看，降息预期基本在盘面充分反映兑现，后续支撑乏力，中国铜冶炼厂采 购联合体（CSPT）表示，其成员已达成减产共识，计划在 2026 年减产 10% 以上，刺激铜 价上涨，消息面支撑有限，铜价上方空间不足。 【冠通期货研究报告】 冶炼端消息拉涨行情 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 2 日 【行情分析】 资料来源：同花 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment this year, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers a layout opportunity for the index's further rise next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, improving the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on various commodities Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent market adjustment provides a layout opportunity for the index's rise next year. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the discount structure of index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side provides support, so the price is running strongly [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment is positive, leading to a price rebound [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line. Attention should be paid to the change in ore prices [1] - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the macro - sentiment is improving. The reduction in processing fees in December led to a production cut of over 30,000 tons, improving the fundamentals and supporting the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term but faces upward pressure [1] - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. The nickel price has rebounded after position reduction. In the short term, it may oscillate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, primary nickel remains in an oversupply situation [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. The raw material price has stopped falling. In the short term, it is oscillating. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling at high levels for hedging [1] - **Tin**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is improving. Due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, the price is rising. However, considering the demand pressure, be cautious when chasing high. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels during the callback [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Affected by the silver squeeze and the high probability of a December interest - rate cut, the price may run strongly [1] - **Silver**: The squeeze sentiment is fermenting, and the price is rising strongly. It is bullish in the short term, but be vigilant against high volatility [1] - **Platinum**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price still has a premium over the foreign market, so the volatility may be relatively large [1] - **Palladium**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price is higher than the foreign market. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The medium - term long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: The northwest production capacity is resuming, and the southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and the terminal installation is increasing marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule decreased in November, and there was a joint production cut in the organic silicon industry. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production and increasing production. The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum [1] Building Materials and Steel - **Rebar**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. Do not chase high for unilateral trading, and appropriate participation in spot - futures positions is recommended [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the macro - drive in December provides rebound momentum, and basis positive - arbitrage positions can be rolled and participated in. Do not chase high for unilateral trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, take a short - term view for unilateral trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash - out the short - hedging positions [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and fluctuates strongly. Soda ash follows glass, but the upward price resistance is relatively large [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1] - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supplement of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. Consider short - selling opportunities [1] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no drive". In the future, pay attention to the central No. 1 document's tone on direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak season [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has changed from shortage to surplus, and the raw sugar price is under pressure. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased compared with the same period last year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be under pressure and follow the raw sugar [1] - **Grain and Oil Crops**: The short - term replenishment demand of downstream low - inventory cannot be met in time due to logistics and weather factors, resulting in a phased supply - demand mismatch. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the South American weather. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for unilateral trading and the spot basis [1] - **Paper Pulp**: There have been cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new warehouse receipts recently. The recovery of the demand side remains to be verified, and it is oscillating in the short term [1] - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but it has been priced in the market. The profit - loss ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline in the market is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The recent spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for catch - up work during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is relatively high [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material cost provides strong support, the basis between futures and spot is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] - **BR Rubber**: The support of butadiene price is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation to the market. The supply price of mainstream butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, but rubber factories still have profits and strong processing willingness. The high - inventory and loose fundamentals still suppress the upward price movement, but the current synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound range [1] - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase is slowing down, the US's action expectation on Venezuela is wavering. The domestic PTA manufacturers' export prospects have improved, boosting the PX procurement sentiment [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. The coal price is falling, and the domestic cost support for ethylene glycol continues to weaken. The domestic device commissioning expectation strongly suppresses the rise of ethylene glycol [1] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of PTA has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has also strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has decreased, and the cost support for styrene has weakened [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from the anti - internal - roll and the cost side [1] - **Propylene**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is at a high level, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the high - level propylene monomer provides strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, the supply will increase, the demand will weaken, and the orders are not good [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants in Guangxi have started to deliver goods, and some alumina plants have delayed production. The delivery rhythm has slowed down. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls. There is a pressure of inventory accumulation in Shandong caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of a squeeze [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of loose fundamentals. CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The ethylene device of Maoming Petrochemical in South China is planned to be overhauled, and there is an expectation of an increase in civilian supply from now to January. The combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a supplementary decline. Pay attention to the rise of the near - month price affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

| 库存与仓单 | | 镍 锡 | 254364 3160 | | -0. 16 0. 00 | 244506 2780 | | 3.87 12.03 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 500 | | | | | 库存指标 | | 期货库存 | 変化 (%) | | 仓車 | | 变化 (%) | | | | | | | 铜 | 97930 | | -11.46 | 31495 | | -10. 64 | | | | | | | 锌 | 95916 | | -4. 42 | 65778 | | -2. 72 | | | | | | SHFE (吨) | 铝 | 115277 | | -6. 82 | 66833 | | -0. 15 | -1000 | | | | | | 镍 | 40782 | | 2. 48 | 32722 | | -1.76 | | | | | | | 锡 | ୧356 | | 2. 09 | 6290 | | 0. 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each sector has its own market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks. Overall, different sectors are expected to show different trends such as upward, downward, or sideways movements, and specific investment strategies are recommended for each sector [2][9][46]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%. The four major stock index futures contracts also recovered, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired. The market was influenced by domestic economic data and overseas news. Short - term operations suggest light - selling December put options and building long - spread positions on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds mostly declined. The market was affected by factors such as capital conditions, PMI data, and rumors of new regulations on fund redemption fees. Short - term operations suggest waiting for incremental information to choose a direction and focusing on certain strategies for futures - cash operations [6][8]. Precious Metals - The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, the Japanese central bank hinted at a possible interest rate hike, and there were positive signals for the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. Gold and platinum - palladium prices were relatively stable, while silver showed strong performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Specific strategies are recommended for different precious metals [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - As of December 1, the SCFIS European Line Index and the US West Route Index both declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different trends. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, but the spot market was weak. Short - term operations suggest a downward trend [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices rose again due to concerns about supply shortages. The spot price increased, and the discount of the premium decreased. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand showed strong resilience. In the short - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price was stable with a slight decline in some regions. The supply was abundant, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price increased, and the market showed a positive feedback in the domestic fundamentals. The downstream procurement willingness increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21400 - 22000 yuan/ton [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum was tight. The demand showed resilience, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The spot price increased, and the supply was expected to decrease. The demand showed a structural improvement, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton [26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased, and the supply of tin ore was tight. The demand in South China showed resilience, while that in East China was weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and a strategy of holding existing long positions and buying on dips is recommended [29][33]. - **Nickel**: The spot price increased slightly, and the production was expected to decrease slightly but still remained at a high level. The demand showed different trends in different sectors, and the inventory was at a high level. The short - term price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price was stable, and the supply pressure remained high. The demand was weak, and the inventory showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be in a weak - sideways trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [36][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price increased, and the supply continued to increase. The demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [40][43]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price was stable, and the supply was expected to be in excess in December. The demand weakened, and the inventory increased. The futures price may face pressure, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money put options is recommended [43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. The demand was not optimistic, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [46][47]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price strengthened, and the cost and profit situation improved slightly. The supply decreased seasonally, and the demand showed different trends in different structures. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and strategies such as long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage are recommended [46][48][50]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the supply and demand situation changed. The supply increased in some aspects and decreased in others, and the demand was supported. The inventory showed different trends. The price is expected to be in a strong - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 750 - 820 [51][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures price rebounded from the bottom. The supply was affected by factors such as mine shutdowns, and the demand was affected by the decline in iron - water production. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a sideways - rebound trend, and an arbitrage strategy of short - term and long - term contracts is recommended [53][55]. - **Coke**: The spot price was reduced, and the futures price rebounded from the bottom. The supply increased due to the improvement of coking profits, and the demand was affected by the decline in iron - water production. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a sideways - rebound trend, and an arbitrage strategy of short - term and long - term contracts is recommended [56][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was zero. The market lacked clear guidance, and the price is expected to be in a sideways trend [60][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price rebounded, and the profit of pig - raising decreased. The supply and demand were basically balanced in the short - term, and the price is expected to be in a weak - sideways trend. A strategy of holding short - term and long - term spread positions is recommended [62][63]. - **Corn**: The spot price showed different trends in different regions, and the supply was slightly tight. The demand showed different characteristics in different sectors. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply [64][65]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price was bearish, and the domestic sugar price was in a bottom - sideways trend. The supply in Brazil increased, and the new sugar in Guangxi entered the market. The price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend [66]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was in a bottom - sideways trend, and the domestic cotton price was in a range - sideways trend. The US cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton faced hedging pressure but also had support. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong - sideways trend [68][69]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the supply decreased. The demand showed different trends in different links. The price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend [70][71]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of soybean oil and palm oil rose, influenced by factors such as overseas market trends and supply - demand conditions. The price of palm oil is expected to be in a sideways - downward trend, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be affected by factors such as bio - fuel policies and Chinese procurement [72][73]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price in the production area weakened, and the supply pressure was significant. The demand was not improved significantly. The price is expected to be in a low - level weak - sideways trend [75][76]. - **Apples**: The spot price in the production area was stable, and the trading was slow. The demand for stored apples was general. The price is expected to be in a slow - trading state [77]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The spot price rose, and the profit increased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased. The price is expected to be strongly supported in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [77][79]. - **PTA**: The spot price increased, and the profit situation improved. The supply and demand situation changed, with the supply increasing and the demand having certain support. The price is expected to be in a high - level sideways trend, and a positive - spread strategy for different contracts is recommended [80][82]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price increased, and the profit decreased. The supply remained high, and the demand weakened seasonally. The price is expected to be supported in the short - term, but the processing fee is expected to be compressed [83][84]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot price increased, and the profit decreased. The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the cost and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [85][86]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot price was stable, and the supply and demand situation was loose. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 3800 - 4000 [87]. - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price was in a range - sideways trend, and the supply was expected to be loose. The demand was supported limitedly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [88][89]. - **Styrene**: The spot price was stable, and the supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. The upward driving force was insufficient. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 6300 - 6600 [90][91]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price changed little, and the supply increased while the demand decreased slightly. The inventory showed different trends. The price is expected to be in a sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 6700 - 7000 [92]. - **PP**: The spot price showed different trends in different regions, and the supply and demand both increased. The inventory increased slightly, but the pressure was relieved by unexpected shutdowns. The price is expected to have limited downward space, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [93]. - **Methanol**: The spot price strengthened, and the supply and demand situation changed. The supply increased in some areas and decreased in others, and the demand was supported by factors such as winter fuel demand. A specific strategy for MTO contracts is recommended [93][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand were under pressure. The price is expected to be in a weak - downward trend [94][95]. - **PVC**: The spot price was in a stalemate, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The price is expected to be in a bottom - weakening trend [96][97]. - **Soda Ash**: The production increased after a decline, and the price was in a sideways trend. The supply and demand situation changed, and the price is expected to be in a bottom - sideways trend. A strategy of waiting for rebounds and short - selling is recommended [98][99]. - **Glass**: The production and sales decreased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The supply and demand situation changed, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [98][100]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price of overseas raw materials fell, and the supply increased seasonally. The demand was weak in some aspects. The price is expected to be in a range - sideways trend, and the operating range is expected to be 15000 - 15500 [100][103]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand were not strongly supported. The cost was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [103][106].