Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with both sides achieving a principled consensus on addressing economic concerns and enhancing cooperation [2][3] - China emphasized the mutual benefits of the economic relationship, stating that trade wars yield no winners and expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve differences [2] - The US side reported positive outcomes from the meeting, aiming to stabilize bilateral economic relations and implement the consensus reached [3] Group 2 - The China Automobile Industry Association reported that from January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 10.9% [4] - New energy vehicle production and sales during the same period were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 45.2% and 44%, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% of total new car sales [4] Group 3 - The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and 17 other departments issued measures to support the overseas expansion of the gaming industry, including increased financial support [5] - Companies such as Silver Wheel Co. plan to establish joint ventures to enter the intelligent robot parts market, while Tian Ci Materials intends to build an integrated production base for electrolytes and raw materials in Morocco [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and loose expectations, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in tin prices [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,530 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.69% [1] - The current trading performance in the spot market is relatively quiet, with only a few participants maintaining essential purchases due to strong observation sentiment from downstream [1] Group 2 - Tin ore supply remains tight, which is constraining production at smelting plants, with the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi reaching 53.86% as of last Friday [1] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in Yunnan has continued to decline, with the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate remaining at historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting plants [1] - Some smelting enterprises have already halted production for maintenance, while others are gradually reducing output to cope with the current tight supply of raw materials [1] Group 3 - Thailand has decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting June 4, which is expected to impact the monthly import of tin ore into China by 500-1,000 metal tons [2] - The ban on transportation is likely to exacerbate raw material supply concerns, although market sentiment may experience a short-term boost [2] - The demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors is slowing down, and the high prices are leading to reduced purchasing from downstream, indicating that tin prices may maintain a trend of rebound followed by consolidation [2]

Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead: Not clearly defined [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and provides trading suggestions for each metal based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper gave back its gains and closed lower. Short - term LME copper inventory outflow accelerated, with logistics shifting to the US, and the silver price increase drove the copper price. However, domestic consumption is entering the off - season. Short - term traders should consider stopping losses above 79,500 yuan and pay attention to the fluctuations of US copper [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with the spot premium in East China at 70 yuan. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 27,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday, while that of aluminum rods remained unchanged. The aluminum market maintains a low - inventory situation, but demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported consumption. Shanghai aluminum is temporarily oscillating, with resistance at 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum may narrow in the off - season. Alumina has a large supply elasticity after profit recovery, with domestic operating capacity exceeding 90 million tons. The futures are weak due to oversupply, and it is advisable to short on rallies. The Guinea ore price is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi, and it is not advisable to short the futures due to a large discount [3] Zinc - SMM's research shows that smelter output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption is pre - exported and in the traditional off - season, so demand remains weak. The average price of SMM 0 zinc decreased by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and the spot premium to the near - month contract decreased to 50 yuan/ton. The main Shanghai zinc contract fell 1.27%, with the weighted position increasing by 7,878 lots to 285,000 lots and the settled funds reaching 5.567 billion yuan. The short - covering strength slowed down. Considering the support from the smelting cost, short positions opened at high levels should consider taking partial profits around 21,500 yuan/ton, and the overall view is to short on rallies [4] Lead - The price of lead batteries remains high. Under environmental inspections, some secondary lead smelters reduced production, supporting the slow increase of the lead price. The average price of SMM 1 lead increased by 100 yuan to 16,625 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 195 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The refined - scrap spread is 25 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises purchase cautiously, and the spot trading is light. The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined significantly, and the market trading was light. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, that of imported nickel is 100 yuan, and that of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. Due to continuous rainfall in the Philippines, the loading progress of nickel mines was delayed. The price of NPI stopped falling, but domestic NPI smelters are still in a loss. The inventory of nickel iron increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons. Wait for opportunities to short Shanghai nickel [7] Tin - Shanghai tin turned down in the late trading. The spot tin price is 264,800 yuan, with a spot premium of 990 yuan to the delivery - month contract. The MA60 moving average of domestic and international tin prices is the objective boundary of the price trend. Due to supply factors, the tin price rebounded quickly after the decline. When Shanghai tin rebounds close to the previous level above 265,000 yuan, some short positions should be reduced or rolled over to the far - month contract [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The total market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 57,000 tons, and the inventory in the intermediate link increased by 500 tons. The downstream restocking and upstream destocking did not continue, but the sentiment of traders in the intermediate link became more positive, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continued. The latest price of Australian ore is $607.5, and the decline rate slowed down. The mid - stream production increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures slowed down, and the position indicates risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the short - selling momentum weakened. It is advisable to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures increased with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,415 yuan/ton, and the market trading volume declined. On the supply side, the weekly increase is mainly driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang. The production schedules of downstream polysilicon and silicone in June are expected to increase month - on - month, but there may still be a slight inventory build - up in June. The short - term price is driven by technical rebounds and macro - mood fluctuations. It is difficult to determine the end of the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of the M20 moving average. The overall trend is still bearish [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined with a reduction in positions, and the oscillation center continued to move down. After the PV 531 policy node, the short - term distributed demand declined, and centralized projects are mainly in a wait - and - see state. After component enterprises raised prices, it was difficult to follow up with transactions. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in June continued to shrink, while the polysilicon production schedule increased slightly. The inventory pressure of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and leading enterprises have the expectation of lower production costs after capacity replacement. Technically and from the perspective of macro - mood transmission, polysilicon futures may oscillate weakly in the short term [11]

投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜日内回落 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价冲高，今日震荡回落，持仓量持续上升。上周五以来， 铜价开始增仓上行，我们认为是短期宏观氛围回暖推动了铜价上 行。产业层面，消费进入淡季，社库去化放缓，基差月差持续收 窄。技术层面，短线期价在 5 月高点有一定压力，冲高回落，可持续 关注该位置多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价偏弱震荡，主力期价跌破 2 万关口，持仓量小幅上升。 近期宏观氛围回暖。产业层面，上游电解铝厂利润较高，盘面套保压 力较大，给予铝价压力；下游需求较 ...

Group 1 - The core event is the signing of the Indonesia Guangqing Nickel-Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Project by Guangxin Group, marking a significant milestone in deepening cooperation with ASEAN in the industrial chain [1][3] - Guangxin Group is a wholly state-owned enterprise of the Guangdong provincial government, focusing on manufacturing, capital investment, and market-oriented operations, ranking 414th in the Fortune Global 500 in 2024 [1] - The group has increased its international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 36%, and ASEAN being a primary market, contributing 54.2 billion yuan, which is 86.3% of its overseas revenue [1][2] Group 2 - The Indonesia Guangqing project, initiated in 2014, is a key Belt and Road Initiative project with a total investment of 1.031 billion USD, generating approximately 35 billion USD in revenue since its inception [2] - Guangxin Group is expanding its manufacturing and supply chain projects in ASEAN, including investments in aluminum, steel, and textile industries across Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia [2] - The new nickel-cobalt project has a total investment of about 2 billion USD, expected to start trial production by the end of 2026, with an anticipated annual profit of 2 billion yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price may rebound in the short - term due to the continuous tight supply of waste batteries, the expanding losses of secondary lead smelters, and the high uncertainty of their production, but the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainties need to be further observed [1] - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the inventory is relatively low, the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase, and the zinc price has broken through the 22,000 yuan/ton mark. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,525.00 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,765.00 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,988.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.71%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.43, down 0.79% [1] Supply and Demand - The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the production of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries, limited supply of recyclers, and high reluctance to sell. The demand is weak as it is in the off - season [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 53,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from June 3 and more than 500 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The lead price may rebound in the short - term, but attention should be paid to cost support and macro - uncertainties [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,520.00 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,910.00 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [1] - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,654.00 US dollars/ton, down 0.32%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.26, down 1.81% [1] Supply and Demand - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while the demand is in the off - season. Although the start - up rate of some downstream sectors has rebounded, the overall demand is still weak, and it is expected to decline this week considering environmental inspections [1] Inventory - As of June 9, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from June 3 and 2,400 tons from June 5 [1] Investment Strategy - The zinc market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy is still recommended, but the decline may slow down due to potential improvement in downstream purchases [1]

| | 20250610申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 幅波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

中国 5 月通胀数据基本符合预期 我国国内物价水平偏低的问题仍在持续，出口和进口走弱的压 力均开始凸显。基本面依然利多债市。 宏观策略（股指期货） 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-10 宏观策略（国债期货） 日度报告——综合晨报 中美经贸磋商机制会议在英国伦敦举行 综 从 5 月外贸数据看，即便联合声明已达成，但中美经贸往来却无 明显改善，反映美国政策的不确定性已经从中期角度改变了企 业的基准预期。持续跟踪中美会谈的结果。 合 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 晨 亚马逊还考虑在美国宾州投资另外 100 亿美元 报 市场等待中美贸易协商进展，科技板块延续涨势，三大股指波 动降低，涨跌不一。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 全国主要地区菜油库存统计 国内豆棕油累库，等待 MPOB 数据发布。 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 华东市场炼焦煤偏弱运行 短期来看，当前双焦基本面并没有发生质的变化，短期仍按反 弹对待，但宏观环境变化，因此需关注整体工业品带来的变化， 谨慎追多，建议观望为主 能源化工（原油） 中国 5 月原油进口量环比下降 油价反弹，美伊谈判进展不明朗支撑油价。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The macro - atmosphere has warmed up, and capital attention has increased. Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price once reaching the 79,000 - yuan mark on Thursday. The rise is due to the easing of Sino - US relations and financial attribute - driven catch - up growth. However, after the holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the spread between July and August contracts continued to narrow, pressuring the futures price. In the short term, the warming macro - atmosphere will drive copper prices to fluctuate upwards. Looking ahead to June, there are signs of a recovery in the macro - level [3][60]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - atmosphere has warmed up, but capital attention has decreased. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated around the 20,000 - yuan mark with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. Trump's statement on May 30 to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% may increase market tariff expectations and is bearish for aluminum prices in the long - term globally. In the short - and medium - term, the continuous increase in bauxite port inventory at the industrial upstream, good downstream demand, continuous depletion of electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and low downstream initial inventory support aluminum prices. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [4][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump expressed respect for President Xi, and both sides recognized the importance of Sino - US relations. The Geneva economic and trade talks were successful. - The Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and will hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price once reaching the 79,000 - yuan mark on Thursday. Various price - related charts such as copper futures price trends, copper's Shanghai - London ratio, and others are presented [3][10][11]. - **Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, indicating a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, reflecting an expected tightness in the domestic ore end [24]. - **Slowing Electrolytic Copper De - stocking**: The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory [28][29]. - **Downstream Initial Demand**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including data on refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated around the 20,000 - yuan mark, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. Multiple price - related charts such as aluminum price trends, aluminum's Shanghai - London ratio, and others are provided [4][33][34]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: The port inventory of bauxite has been continuously increasing, and the price trend of alumina is also shown [45][46][49]. - **Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory show a trend of change, indicating seasonal de - stocking [50][51]. - **Downstream Initial Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fee and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: In the short term, the warming macro - atmosphere will drive copper prices to fluctuate upwards. In June, there are signs of a macro - level recovery. However, the industrial end is in the off - season, with poor consumption expectations and rising inventory, which will put pressure on copper prices [3][60]. - **Aluminum**: The futures price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the long - term, Trump's tariff increase statement is bearish for aluminum prices globally, but in the short - and medium - term, the increase in upstream bauxite inventory, good downstream demand, and low downstream inventory support aluminum prices. If the domestic macro - situation continues to improve, aluminum prices will show a stronger volatile trend [4][60].