Market Overview - Major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region experienced collective gains, with the A-share market rebounding significantly, as the Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1% and the ChiNext Index increased by more than 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.25 trillion yuan, a decrease of 202.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,700 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - The AI application sector saw a continuous surge, with over twenty constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Liou Co., which achieved six consecutive limit-ups in nine days [3] - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with stocks like Yaxin Integration hitting their historical highs [3] - Precious metals stocks collectively strengthened, with companies like Xianglu Tungsten and Hunan Silver seeing significant gains [5][6] Individual Stock Highlights - Huaxia Happiness (600340.SH) faced a sharp decline, hitting the daily limit down with a closing price of 1.96 yuan, marking a new low since early April 2025. The company projected a net loss of 16 billion to 24 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - Precious metals prices surged, with spot silver reaching a historical high of 90 USD, leading to a total market capitalization exceeding 5 trillion USD, surpassing Nvidia to become the second-largest asset globally [7][10] Notable Announcements - Kweichow Moutai made a significant announcement, regaining price dominance after eight years [10] - A leading company secured a 120 billion yuan order for lithium iron phosphate, prompting rapid inquiries from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [10]

| 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨1.03%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，短期铜价更 | | | 多受市场情绪影响。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.86%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。 | | | 建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | (美元/吨） | （ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides detailed insights into the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the market conditions. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices continue to show a strong performance. Short - term prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and hold the previously recommended call options [2]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The transaction of coking coal in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with futures. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and beans are under pressure. The domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high, and the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [4]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices rose first and then fell. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined with the indices, and the basis of the main contracts continued to rise [5][6]. - **News**: The Ministry of Commerce proposed to continue imposing anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Overseas, the US prosecutor's office launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the US December CPI was in line with expectations [6][7]. - **Funding**: On January 13, the A - share market trading volume reached a new high, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 3424 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH with a relatively weak previous increase. For small - and - medium - cap indices, use bull spreads and pay attention to risk prevention [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and long - term bonds performed better. The yield of major interest - rate bonds fluctuated [8]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted a 3586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on January 13, with a net injection of 3424 billion yuan. However, the money market tightened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's subsequent actions [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a volatile market in the short term, lacking a trend. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the fiscal deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The prices of precious metals showed a differentiated trend, with silver leading the rise [10][11][12]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the medium - long term. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above the 20 - day moving average, hold long positions in silver above 75 US dollars, and buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average [12][13]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index rose, and the SCFI composite index fell slightly. The spot price of shipping is gradually entering a downward cycle [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The futures price of the main contract declined, and the spot price will continue to put downward pressure on the futures [15]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and the downstream operating rate is weak. The medium - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term is affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a wide - range shock. The supply is rigid, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is at a high level and fluctuating widely. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to build long positions [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost drives the price up, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 can be considered [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The price center has moved up, and the spot transaction is average. The supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is inhibited. It is recommended to focus on the support at 23,800 and go long on dips in the long term [30][33]. - **Tin**: The price continues to be strong. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [33][37]. - **Nickel**: The news reaction is gradually digested, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [37][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is fluctuating narrowly. The cost and demand are in a game. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with a reference range of 13,400 - 14,200 [40][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment is strong, and the price continues to rise. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see [44][46]. - **Polysilicon**: The long positions have reduced their positions, and the price has further declined. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the subsequent production reduction and demand recovery [47][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is mainly fluctuating. The supply and demand are both weak in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the production reduction and the change in polysilicon production [50][51]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in January, with a reference range of 3050 - 3250 for rebar and 3200 - 3350 for hot - rolled coils [52][53][54]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to operate within the range [55][56]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [57][61]. - **Coke**: After the fourth - round price cut at the beginning of the year, the price has stabilized. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][67]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5500 [68][69]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The external price of manganese ore has generally risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5800 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The USDA report data is bearish, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [73][75]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the demand has declined. It is expected to be in a volatile and bearish pattern in January [76][77]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the downstream has rigid demand for stocking. The price is expected to be supported, but the increase is limited by policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy implementation [78][80]. - **Sugar**: The Unica production data is bullish, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report is slightly bullish, and the domestic cotton price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term price may enter an adjustment period [84][85]. - **Eggs**: The terminal inventory has increased, and the market trading has slowed down. The futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [88]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil has risen first and then fallen, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by various factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of different oils [89][91][92]. - **Red Dates**: The spot price is supported, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to short on rallies [94]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures price is rising. The short - term price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory, but the long - term price is affected by consumption. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [95][96]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase under high valuation, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is expected to be low - bought in the medium term [97][98]. - **PTA**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the pre - holiday driving force is limited. It is recommended to follow the raw material price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short term and be low - bought in the medium term [99][100]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and shrink the processing fee on rallies [101]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand will both decrease in January. The absolute price and processing fee will follow the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [102][103]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 on rallies, and sell out - of - the - money call options on EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies [105]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but the price is still under pressure due to high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [106]. - **Styrene**: It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited under high valuation and weak expectation. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee on rallies [107][108]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [109][110]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance has increased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to hold the position with an expanding PDH profit [110]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see [110][111]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the spot transaction is light. The price is expected to be stable and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream procurement volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [111][112]. - **PVC**: The export factor amplifies the price fluctuation, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions in the short term [113][114]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the downstream is cautious about high - priced purchases. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to the production resumption rhythm and downstream demand [116][117]. - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion [118][120]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair and restocking maintain the price strength. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion and supply - demand balance [118][121]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw material price is high, and the rubber price is fluctuating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the raw material output in Thailand [121][123]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is firm, but the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The BR2603 is expected to run in the range of 11,800 - 12,500. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - level disturbances [124][126].

Group 1: Concerns about Federal Reserve Independence - UBS suggests that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to a more hawkish stance in monetary policy [1] - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to continue making data-driven decisions despite the pressure from the criminal investigation against Chairman Powell [1][2] - Rabobank indicates that increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve could result in higher volatility for the dollar in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Rabobank warns that the investigation into Powell could reignite "sell-America" trades, posing significant downside risks for the dollar [2] - ABN Amro suggests that the investigation may delay any potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as officials may adopt a more hawkish stance to defend the institution [2] - The Swiss franc has become a favored safe-haven currency amid concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts and Trends - State Street Global Advisors reports a greater than 30% probability that spot gold will exceed $5,000 per ounce this year, driven by geopolitical dynamics and Federal Reserve policies [2] - Fitch Ratings anticipates a moderate recovery of the Japanese yen from historical lows by 2026, despite ongoing challenges in the labor market [4] - Zhongjin Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by approximately 50 basis points in 2026 due to weak employment data [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market trends: Accelerated upward movement on Monday, with all major contracts rising. The market sentiment was high, and the trading volume reached a record high [20][21]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to go long on IC/IM on dips, conduct IM/IC 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market trends: Rebounded as expected on Monday, but the upward space may be limited. The market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but there are still unfavorable factors [23][24]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to take partial profits on previous long positions on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market trends: Supply pressure is evident, and the market is likely to decline. The USDA reports are bearish [26][27]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Market trends: International sugar prices fluctuated and closed lower, while domestic sugar prices are in a range - bound pattern. Cost provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [29][30][31]. - Trading strategies: Expect international sugar prices to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. For domestic sugar, consider low - buying and high - selling within the range, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market trends: The USDA report is bearish. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, geopolitics, and bio - diesel factors, showing a volatile pattern [33][34]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term volatility to increase, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market trends: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot market is strong. The US corn report is bearish, and the domestic market has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - Trading strategies: Consider a long - term bullish approach for CBOT March corn after it stabilizes, try short - selling for March corn, widen the spread between May corn and starch on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [39]. Live Hogs - Market trends: Supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. The overall inventory is high [40][42]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a short - selling approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [42]. Peanuts - Market trends: Spot prices are stable, and the market is bottom - oscillating. Import volume has decreased, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high [43][44]. - Trading strategies: Go long on May peanuts on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell PK603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. Eggs - Market trends: Demand has improved, and egg prices are stable with a slight increase. The short - term supply pressure has eased [46][47]. - Trading strategies: Expect the February contract to oscillate in the short - term, consider going long on the May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Market trends: Cold - storage inventory is low, and apple prices are firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is expected to be good [50][51]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the May contract, go short on the October contract on rallies, conduct long May and short October arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market trends: Sales progress is fast, and cotton prices are oscillating. The USDA data shows a positive supply - demand situation, and the market has bullish factors [54][55]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term range - bound movement for US cotton, stay on the sidelines for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - Market trends: Steel inventory is accumulating, and prices are oscillating. The black sector was weak at night, and the demand is affected by seasonality [57]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the hot - rolled coal ratio on rallies, hold short positions on the hot - rolled rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market trends: Prices are fluctuating significantly, and the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The fundamentals have not changed significantly [59][60]. - Trading strategies: Take partial profits on long positions gradually, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - Market trends: Market expectations are volatile, and ore prices are bearish at high levels. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [62][63]. - Trading strategies: Go short on iron ore at high levels with a light position, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Market trends: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have different characteristics [64][65]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market trends: Geopolitics and policy games are intertwined, and prices are highly volatile at high levels. The market is affected by multiple factors [67][68]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold near the previous high at the end of December and Shanghai silver near the previous high on January 7th, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - Market trends: The precious - metal market continues, and prices are at high levels. The fundamentals of platinum are better than those of palladium [72][73]. - Trading strategies: Go long on platinum on dips, be cautious when going long on palladium before the "232 investigation" result is announced, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [73][74]. Copper - Market trends: Short - term fluctuations are increasing, but the upward trend remains. The market is affected by supply - demand and financial factors [75][76]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions entered at 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - Market trends: Commodity sentiment and fundamentals are in conflict, and price fluctuations are increasing. The supply is abundant [79]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market trends: The market is strong. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the global supply - demand is supportive [80][81]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [81]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market trends: The market is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the cost provides support [82]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82]. Zinc - Market trends: Pay attention to the impact of capital. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak [84][85]. - Trading strategies: Go short on zinc at high levels with a light position, beware of upward price movement driven by long - side capital, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. Lead - Market trends: Hold long positions and raise the stop - loss level. The supply is limited, and the demand has resilience [88][89]. - Trading strategies: Hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [90]. Nickel - Market trends: The financial attribute is strengthening, and a low - buying approach is recommended. The market is affected by geopolitics and inflation expectations [93]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [94]. Stainless Steel - Market trends: The price follows nickel. The inventory is decreasing, but the capital inflow is limited [95][96]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market trends: Short - term strength, medium - term short - selling on rallies. The demand is weakening, and the supply is slightly in surplus [97]. - Trading strategies: Go short on industrial silicon on rallies in the medium - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - Market trends: Export tax - rebate cancellation and factory production cuts lead to short - term stabilization. The market is affected by policies and production cuts [98][99]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious when participating in futures trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Market trends: Optimistic sentiment drives the price up. The demand is better than expected, and the supply is tight [100]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions at low levels, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use protective strategies for options [102]. Tin - Market trends: Beware of selling pressure caused by a change in macro - sentiment, and the supply shortage has not reversed. The market is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors [102][103]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious of short - term volatility, stay on the sidelines for options [104]. Shipping Container Shipping - Market trends: The Maersk Denver passed through the Red Sea, and Trump imposed secondary tariffs on Iran. The spot freight rate has reached a high point, and the demand is at a high level [105]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the June - October calendar spread on dips [106]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics drives the price up. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [107][108]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the Iranian situation, go long on the domestic gasoline - diesel spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [108]. Asphalt - Market trends: Venezuelan oil is expected to be compliant, and there is a game in cost changes. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season [110][112]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [112]. Fuel Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand [113][117]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, beware of geopolitical risks, hold the FU59 calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Natural Gas - Market trends: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is bottom - seeking. The market is affected by weather and supply - demand [119][120]. - Trading strategies: Hold short positions in TTF and JKM, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [121]. LPG - Market trends: Strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is affected by supply - demand and import costs [122][124]. - Trading strategies: Pay attention to the Iranian situation, be bearish on long - term far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [124]. PX&PTA - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitics [125][126]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, conduct calendar spread arbitrage for PX&PTA March and May contracts, and stay on the sidelines for options [127]. BZ&EB - Market trends: Pure benzene is expected to decrease in supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. The market is affected by supply - demand and exports [128]. - Trading strategies: Look for short - selling opportunities for pure benzene at high levels, short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [129]. Ethylene Glycol - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and the price upside is limited. The market is affected by supply - demand [130][131]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend [131]. Short - Fiber - Market trends: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. The market is affected by supply - demand and production cuts [132][133]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [135][136]. Bottle Chips - Market trends: Some maintenance plans are announced. The market is affected by supply - demand and maintenance [136][137]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [138]. Propylene - Market trends: Downstream factories are actively purchasing. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [138][139][140]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140]. Plastic PP - Market trends: The market is strong. The market is affected by supply - demand and policies [141]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, set a stop - loss at 6600 points, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 6450 points, sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract, and set a stop - loss at 51.0 points [143]. Caustic Soda - Market trends: Commodity sentiment has improved. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [144]. - Trading strategies: Expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [145][146]. PVC - Market trends: The market is oscillating. The market is affected by supply - demand and export policies [147]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines [148]. Soda Ash - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation this week. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [149][151]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on far - month contracts at high levels [151]. Glass - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [153][155]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation this week, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [155]. Methanol - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international production, and geopolitics [156]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread, and sell put options on pull - backs [157]. Urea - Market trends: High - level oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international bidding, and policies [159]. - Trading strategies: Go short on urea with a light position, and hedging enterprises can look for hedging opportunities [160]. Pulp - Market trends: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. The market is affected by supply - demand [161][163]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [164]. Logs - Market trends: The spot price has rebounded slightly. Pay attention to the delivery in Chongqing and Yantai. The market is affected by supply - demand [165][168]. - Trading strategies: Aggressive investors can go long with a small position, pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [168]. Offset Printing Paper - Market trends: High inventory restricts the implementation of price - increase letters for cultural paper. The market is affected by supply - demand [169][170]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [170]. Natural Rubber - Market trends: The bonded - area inventory is accumulating, but the

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro & RMB Exchange Rate**: The criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell reveals the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy space is narrowing and its independence is being eroded, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by both external and internal factors, and it is an early signal of global capital's re - allocation. The future trends of the Powell event and the RMB will be intertwined [1][2]. - **Equity Index**: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. However, the sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed resilience on Monday. Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. - **New Energy (Carbonate Lithium)**: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. - **New Energy (Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon)**: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum Industry Chain)**: For aluminum, the medium - to long - term price is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. For alumina, the medium - term trend is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - **Oils & Fats (Oilseeds)**: The external soybean market is expected to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market will be near - term strong and long - term weak. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the progress of Australian rapeseed crushing and China - Canada negotiations [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Palm Oil)**: Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term within the sector [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Soybean Oil)**: The global soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the supply increment from reserve sales [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Rapeseed Oil)**: The global rapeseed supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the results of the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China [24]. - **Energy & Oil & Gas (Fuel Oil)**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight due to sanctions, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is improving, and its upward drive is limited [27][28]. - **Energy & Oil & Gas (Asphalt)**: The asphalt market is affected by cost fluctuations. The winter storage policy provides some support, and it is recommended to pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack long - allocation opportunities [29]. - **Precious Metals (Platinum & Palladium)**: Platinum and palladium are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to long - term. However, short - term risks of correction should be noted due to index parameter adjustments [30][31]. - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and use dips as opportunities to add long positions [32][33]. - **Chemicals (Pulp - Offset Paper)**: The pulp futures price fell as expected, and the current market is slightly bearish. The offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies in the short - term [34][35]. - **Chemicals (LPG)**: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is relatively tight, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of PDH plants [35][36]. - **Chemicals (PTA - PX)**: The PTA - PX supply - demand structure has improved, but the upward drive of PTA is weakened by downstream negative feedback. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. It is not recommended to chase high prices [36][37][39]. - **Chemicals (MEG - Bottle Chips)**: The demand for ethylene glycol is under negative feedback, and the supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse without macro - policy support. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40][41]. - **Chemicals (Methanol)**: The geopolitical logic in the methanol market continues. Although the MTO shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, shorting is not recommended [41][42]. - **Chemicals (PP)**: The PP market is expected to show a pattern of supply and demand reduction. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of plant maintenance [43][44]. - **Chemicals (PE)**: The PE market is shifting to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and its upward space is limited [45][46]. - **Chemicals (Pure Benzene - Styrene)**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation in the short - term and follows the strength of styrene. Styrene is running strongly, but caution should be exercised when chasing high prices [47][48][50]. - **Chemicals (Rubber)**: Natural rubber is under supply pressure, and synthetic rubber is affected by cost and demand factors. Rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [50][52][53]. - **Chemicals (Urea)**: The price of urea is expected to rise in the 05 contract, but a short - term correction may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions [54][55]. - **Chemicals (Soda Ash & Caustic Soda)**: Soda ash is facing over - supply expectations, and glass has high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely with weak fundamental drivers [55][57][58]. - **Chemicals (Propylene)**: Propylene prices are mainly affected by cost. The supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost changes [58][59]. - **Black Metals (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Rebar demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply of steel products is increasing. However, the downside space is limited due to support from raw materials. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [60][61]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The iron ore price is deviating from its fundamentals. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase high prices [61][62]. - **Black Metals (Coking Coal & Coke)**: Some coking enterprises have initiated a price increase. The supply of coking coal and coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. However, the macro - sentiment is the key factor affecting the price [63][64]. - **Black Metals (Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese)**: The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is under pressure, but they are supported by cost. They are expected to oscillate at the bottom after a correction [64]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Hogs)**: The hog market is in a situation of both decreasing supply and demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly with limited upside [65][66]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Cotton)**: The price of cotton has risen, but there are risks of short - term correction due to factors such as squeezed spinning profits and the price advantage of imported yarns [67][68]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Sugar)**: The sugar price is oscillating under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [68][69]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Eggs)**: The egg price is rising during the pre - holiday peak season and is expected to remain strong until the Spring Festival [70]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Apples)**: The apple futures price is under pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [74][75]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Jujubes)**: The jujube price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term and will be under pressure in the long - term due to loose supply - demand [76]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Logs)**: The spot price of some log specifications has increased, but the futures market is dull. The inventory may have reached a turning point, and the upside of the price is limited [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Exchange Rate - **Market Information**: Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran; the Fed's investigation of Powell has caused market turmoil; Trump may interview a BlackRock executive for the Fed chair position [1]. - **Core Logic**: The criminal investigation of Powell reflects the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy independence is being challenged, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The RMB's appreciation is driven by both external and internal factors [1][2]. - **Exchange Rate Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose in the previous trading day, and the RMB central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [1]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Review**: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. The futures index also showed different trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Fed chair [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. 3.3 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond market showed resilience on Monday, with most bond prices rising. The money market tightened slightly, and the yield of some bonds declined [5]. - **Important Information**: Relevant departments announced plans to focus on technological research and development in certain fields during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Market Review**: The container shipping futures on European routes rose across the board on the previous trading day, with near - term contracts performing strongly. The spot index also increased significantly [7][8]. - **Market Information**: The market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected PV cargo rush, the resumption of shipping by Maersk, and the approaching Spring Festival [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. 3.5 New Energy 3.5.1 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the trading volume decreased. The inventory of carbonate lithium futures increased [13]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well, with prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and cathode materials rising [13]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. 3.5.2 Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The trading volume and inventory of both also changed [14]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the industrial silicon and PV industries performed generally. The prices of some products remained stable, while others increased slightly [14][15]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The futures prices of copper in different markets rose. The basis and the ratio of Shanghai and London copper also changed [16]. - **Industry Information**: The inventory of copper in different exchanges showed different trends, and the spot price of copper increased. Morgan Stanley changed its forecast for the Fed's interest rate policy [16][17]. - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The futures prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory of each also changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, Trump's tariff decision and the change in the PV export tax policy may affect the price. For alumina, it is affected by the performance of related varieties and is in an over - supply situation. For cast aluminum alloy, it follows the trend of aluminum and has certain support [19][20]. - **Market Outlook**: The medium - to long - term price of aluminum is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. 3.6.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of zinc rose. The trading volume and inventory also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of zinc is relatively loose in the long - term, but the short - term supply is affected by the tightness of raw materials. The demand is weak, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [20][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. 3.6.4 Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of tin rose strongly. The trading volume and inventory also changed [21]. - **Market Outlook**: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.6.5 Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of lead oscillated narrowly. The spot price also remained stable [22]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of lead is affected by the tightness of raw materials, and the demand is weak. The inventory situation is different at home and abroad [22]. - **Market Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. 3.7 Oils & Fats 3.7.1 Oilseeds - **Market Review**: The report data of oilseeds were bearish, and the domestic粕类 is expected to open lower. The market will be near - term strong and long - term weak [24]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For imported soybeans, the supply pressure from Brazil in the second quarter of

格隆汇1月12日丨湖南白银(002716.SZ)公布，2025年12月9日起，湖南白银股份有限公司对铅冶炼系统 及配套环保、安全装置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造，预计停产改造时间约为27天，详见公司于 2025年12月9日披露的《关于公司年度计划检修的公告》（公告编号：2025-090）。检修期间，公司对 生产系统进行了全面检修、升级改造，为后续安全、连续、高效生产奠定了坚实基础。截至本公告披露 日，公司已完成全部检修计划，并于2026年1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...

湖南白银（002716）(002716.SZ)发布公告，2025年12月9日起，公司对铅冶炼系统及配套环保、安全装 置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造，预计停产改造时间约为27天。截至本公告披露日，公司已完成全 部检修计划，并于2026年1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...

智通财经APP讯，湖南白银(002716.SZ)发布公告，2025年12月9日起，公司对铅冶炼系统及配套环保、 安全装置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造，预计停产改造时间约为27天。截至本公告披露日，公司已 完成全部检修计划，并于2026年1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...