Market Overview - The last trading day before the Spring Festival on February 13 saw a significant decline in trading volume, dropping below 2 trillion yuan, with 3,829 stocks closing lower [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.26% to 4,082.07 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.57% to 3,275.96 points [4] Sector Performance - Resource and technology stocks led the decline, with significant drops in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals, all falling over 3% [8] - Natural gas, gold concepts, and rare earth permanent magnets were among the hardest-hit resource stocks [5][8] Trading Dynamics - The market exhibited typical defensive adjustment characteristics, with increased caution among investors as they prepared for the holiday [3][12] - The trading volume decreased significantly, with only three stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in daily trading volume [5][11] Investment Sentiment - Analysts noted that the market is currently in a phase of stock selection and defensive positioning, with a focus on technology growth and policy-supported sectors [11][14] - There is an expectation for increased market activity post-holiday, contingent on external market conditions remaining stable [3][13] Future Outlook - Historical data suggests that the A-share market tends to perform better after the Spring Festival, with potential for upward movement if trading volume rebounds [13][14] - Key sectors to watch include technology, AI, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from ongoing trends and policy support [14][15]

原油年内首次出现两周连跌，交易员权衡OPEC+可能扩大供应的前景、美国与伊朗的核谈判进展以及 近期整体市场的疲软。铝价下跌，之前有报道称美国可能计划缩减部分钢铝关税。金价走高，交易员在 数据显示通胀温和后加大对美联储降息的押注，一些投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入黄金。 原油：WTI年内首次两周连跌 交易员权衡伊朗局势及OPEC+增产前景 原油年内首次出现两周连跌，交易员权衡OPEC+可能扩大供应的前景、美国与伊朗的核谈判进展以及 近期整体市场的疲软。 WTI本周下跌1%， 周五收盘基本持平。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国已向中东增派一艘航空母 舰，以防未能与伊朗达成核协议。"如果我们没有达成协议，我们就需要它，" 特朗普在白宫表示。他 还补充称，他认为谈判最终会取得成功。交易员一直密切关注华盛顿和德黑兰之间紧张局势是否升温， 因为这可能对来自中东的供应构成威胁。 早些时候，油价下跌，与会代表称，OPEC+成员认为有空间在4月恢复增产，因其认为有关供应过剩的 担忧被夸大。与会代表称，该组织尚未承诺采取任何行动方针，也尚未在3月1日会议前启动正式讨论。 原油期货市场连续第二周下跌，终结2026年初以来的连涨势 ...

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. fell from 2.7% to 2.4% in January, marking the lowest level since May 2025, while the core CPI decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, aligning with market expectations [1] - Following the CPI data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped below 97, and U.S. stock index futures experienced a mild rebound, with spot gold rising over 1% and silver increasing nearly 5% [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 3.4%, the lowest since October of the previous year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver have experienced significant fluctuations in the current precious metals market, with gold's year-to-date increase shrinking from 25% to 15%, while silver's rise has decreased from over 50% to around 7% [4] - The divergence in performance between gold and silver is attributed to their differing investment attributes, with gold being a prominent safe-haven asset and silver having a higher industrial demand component, leading to greater price volatility during market adjustments [4][5] - The gold-silver ratio, an important indicator of the relative strength of precious metals, has risen from below 50 at the beginning of the year to 65, suggesting increased market risk aversion and a preference for gold over silver [5]

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 Commodity Outlook - Research Team: Guolian Minsheng Securities Forward-looking Research Team - Report Date: February 13, 2026 [1] Investment Recommendations - Industrial metals: Due to the demand from the electric vehicle, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic sectors, and the long - term insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaching the limit, copper and aluminum are recommended for their potentially positive fundamentals [3]. - Minor metals: Benefiting from China's macro - regulation and supervision of strategic minerals and the supply being restricted by mining quotas, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are recommended [3]. - Precious metals: With their defensive properties, the prices of silver and platinum are expected to enter an upward cycle, so they are recommended [3]. Core Views - The factors influencing commodity prices are divided into short - to - medium - term disturbances, cyclical factors, and trend/structural forces. Capital expenditure in the next 3 - 5 years will affect commodity supply and pricing [3]. Summary by Section 1. Commodity Price Drivers 1.1 Medium - to - Long - Term Influencing Factors: Capital Expenditure Cycle - Copper prices follow the marginal cost pricing principle, while oil prices do not fully conform. The oil price center may have a 5 - year cycle [12][14][15]. 1.2 Short - to - Medium - Term Disturbing Factors: Geopolitics and Supply - Side Restrictions - Commodity price fluctuations caused by geopolitics and supply - side restrictions usually correct within half a year to a year. The flexibility of US shale oil production can offset the impact of OPEC's production changes on oil prices to some extent, and OPEC+ production agreements affect oil prices within 6 months [23]. 1.3 Impact of Technological Progress - The impact of electric vehicle technology on oil demand is slower than on lithium carbonate demand. The new nickel production process has led to a large release of nickel ore capacity, and nickel prices have not outperformed inflation. US natural gas prices have underperformed inflation due to technological progress, and agricultural technological progress has significantly affected agricultural product prices [24][29][34][38]. 2. Traditional Energy: "Stable with Changes", Reshaping the Supply - Demand Structure 2.1 Oil Market - Global oil and gas upstream investment has been increasing since 2020, but it may not return to the high level of 2014 - 2015. OPEC's production recovery may be limited by remaining capacity. Trump's impact on US oil production may be limited. Global oil consumption is increasing, with China and India being the main contributors. The oil market may be in an oversupply situation in 2025 - 2026 [45][51][63][82][87]. 2.2 Natural Gas Market - Asian natural gas demand is stable, and China's dependence on imported LNG has weakened in 2025. US LNG project capacity is expected to grow rapidly, while Europe faces greater LNG import demand [91][98][104][112]. 2.3 Coal Market - Coal remains an important "ballast stone" in the power system. Global coal consumption growth is slowing, and supply is relatively stable. China's coal market is expected to operate stably under the policy of increasing supply and ensuring stable prices [120][126][132]. 3. Steel Industry: Weak Demand, Excess Capacity - Construction steel demand is in a low - growth state, and China's steel exports may be restricted by trade policies. Iron ore supply is expected to be loose, and the coking coal market supply - demand gap is narrowing, with prices fluctuating [134][139][149][159]. 4. Industrial Metals: Improving Supply - Demand Structure, Positive Fundamentals 4.1 Copper - Copper demand is facing a shift in growth drivers, with new energy sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and photovoltaics becoming important demand sources. However, copper exploration investment has been low, and the growth of ore - end resources has been suppressed. The slowdown of recycled copper smelting and the decline of processing fees may support copper prices [165][172][178][192]. 4.2 Aluminum - China's bauxite supply is tight, and imports account for a large proportion, with potential overseas supply disruptions. Global electrolytic aluminum production growth is slowing, and China's production is restricted by the capacity ceiling, which may support aluminum prices [199][208][219]. 4.3 Rare Earths - China's rare earth mining and smelting quota growth has slowed down, and the increase in overseas supply is limited [224]. 4.4 Antimony - The demand for antimony in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to increase, but domestic antimony mine production growth is limited, and global supply is tightening [230][235]. 4.5 Tungsten - The downstream demand for tungsten is expected to improve with the recovery of the manufacturing industry. However, domestic tungsten mine production growth may slow down, while overseas supply may increase [240][246]. 5. Precious Metals: Entering an Upward Cycle - Silver and platinum - group metals may continue to be in a shortage situation. The industrial demand for silver, especially in the photovoltaic sector, is strong, while the demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive industry may decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration [252][257]. 6. Agricultural Products: Climate Change Challenges, Regional Market Differentiation 6.1 Soybeans - The global soybean supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose. China's soybean consumption may decline, the US renewable fuel production has decreased, and trade policies may affect the soybean trade pattern. North American and South American soybean production has different trends, and China's soybean import volume may decrease [264][269][273][278][294]. 6.2 Corn - Global corn supply is tightening, with inventory decreasing. China's corn consumption is growing steadily, the US corn production has decreased but exports have increased significantly, Brazil's corn production has different trends, and its domestic ethanol production restricts exports [299][300][309][315][320]. 6.3 Wheat - The global wheat market is in a tight - balance state. China and India's imports may increase, Russia and the EU's supply has decreased due to bad weather, while North America and Australia's wheat production has been positively affected by the weather. The supply of major exporting countries is tight, and prices are stabilizing [321][331][332][339][340].

Industry Policy and Environment - As of February 12, the spot gold price in New York fell by 3.26%, while silver experienced a decline of 10.89%. Analysts suggest that the drop in U.S. tech stocks prompted some investors to sell precious metals to cover liquidity, exacerbated by algorithmic trading, which collectively pressured international precious metal prices and negatively impacted the A-share gold sector [2]. Company Fundamentals - According to the Q3 2025 report, the gold production of Shanjin International decreased by 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4% in Q3. Some institutions indicate that the drop in production has a marginal impact on profits. Despite the company's excellent cost control, the production shortfall may weaken investor confidence in short-term performance [3]. Capital and Technical Aspects - On February 13, Shanjin International experienced a net outflow of 291 million yuan in main funds, continuing a trend of net outflows over several days. Technical indicators show that the stock price is below the 20-day moving average, and the MACD histogram is in negative territory, indicating significant short-term pressure [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant demand for silver in the market, driven by both physical investment and industrial needs, leading to a historical premium in silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] - The recent surge in silver premiums is attributed to a supply crisis and depletion of deliverable materials, with analysts indicating that unless smelters increase production significantly during the upcoming holiday, the tightness in supply is likely to persist [3] - The current silver futures trading shows a slight upward trend, with prices fluctuating around 20,600.00 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [1] Group 2 - The silver inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade, exacerbating the scarcity of physical silver and leading to increased costs for industrial procurement [3] - There is a dual engine of demand: strong physical investment demand, particularly from the Shenzhen market, and concentrated industrial purchases for solar panel production, as manufacturers rush to complete orders before the April 1 export tax rebate deadline [3] - The trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased to a four-year low, suggesting that investors are reducing positions ahead of the holiday, which may lead to lower volatility in the short term [3][4]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively declined on the last trading day of the lunar year, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26% to below 4100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.57% [3] - However, for the entire year, major indices saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 25.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 38.84%, and the ChiNext Index up by 58.73% [4] Industry Highlights Military Equipment Sector - The military equipment sector showed resilience, with stocks like Andavere hitting a 20% limit up, and other companies such as Aviation Power and Yaxing Anchor Chain also reaching their limit up [6] - Recent developments include the successful first flight of China's first electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, led by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation [8] - Analysts suggest that the increasing complexity of the international environment necessitates advanced military equipment, indicating a long-term positive outlook for the military industry [9] AI Sector - Despite a downturn in the Hong Kong market, several AI concept stocks surged, with Zhizhu rising over 140% this week [10][11] - The launch of new AI models coinciding with the Lunar New Year is expected to attract significant consumer interest, marking a competitive "Spring Festival release season" [13] - The global AI agent market is rapidly expanding, with notable projects like OpenClaw gaining traction, indicating a shift towards more capable execution-type AI [13] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector experienced a sharp decline, with significant drops in gold and silver prices, attributed to geopolitical factors and market volatility [15][16] - Recent reports indicate that algorithmic trading may have exacerbated the sell-off in precious metals, with profit-taking and margin calls contributing to the downturn [18]

Market Overview - On the last trading day of the Year of the Snake, all three major A-share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.26%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28%, and ChiNext Index down 1.57% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 19,989 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,618 billion yuan from the previous day, with 1,537 stocks rising and 3,824 stocks falling [1][2] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,082.07, down 51.95 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,100.19, down 182.81 points [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1,809.18, down 6.97 points [2] - The total A-share market saw a decline of 1.13% in the Wande All A Index, with the ChiNext Index down 1.57% [2] Sector Performance - Aerospace and military industry, film and television, and semiconductor equipment sectors saw the largest gains, while precious metals and shipping sectors experienced significant declines [1][3] - The semiconductor equipment index rose by 1.65%, with stocks like Fuchuang Precision surging by 11% [4] - The aerospace and military index increased by 1.3%, with stocks such as Andavil and Aviation Power hitting the daily limit [5] - The precious metals index fell over 4%, with Zijin Mining dropping nearly 5% [6] Annual Performance Summary - The A-share market concluded the Year of the Snake with all major indices showing positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 25.58%, Shenzhen Component Index up 38.84%, and ChiNext Index leading with a 58.73% increase [6][7] - Nearly 4,700 stocks rose throughout the year, with 779 stocks doubling in price and over 100 stocks increasing by more than 200% [7] - The average daily trading volume surged to 1.89 trillion yuan, a nearly 70% increase compared to the previous year, with days exceeding 2 trillion yuan accounting for 35% of trading days [6][7]

Gold and silver prices rose as U.S. Treasury bond yields fell after December retail sales growth stalled, signaling a softening economy ahead of key jobs data.Gold's wild price swings in recent weeks are increasingly being linked to speculative trading in China by some analysts, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributing the heightened volatility to "unruly" Chinese activity.Gold prices jumped to a record high of $5,594 per ounce on Jan. 29 only to plummet nearly 10% the next day in its sharpest ...

来源：陕西都市快报 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌1.34%，纳指跌2.03%，标普500指数跌1.57%，大型科技股普跌，苹果 跌5%。利弗莫尔中概股龙头指数收跌2.64%，热门中概股普跌。 WTI原油期货价格收跌2.77%，报62.84美元/桶。布伦特原油期货价格收跌2.71%，报67.52美元/桶。 贵金属重挫，COMEX黄金期货收跌3.08%，报4941.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收跌10.62%，报 75.01美元/盎司。 OpenAI发布首款基于半导体初创公司Cerebras Systems芯片的人工智能模型GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark。 来源：陕西日报 智通财经 编辑：高磊 美国上周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，预估为22.4万人，前值为23.1万人。 人工智能初创企业Anthropic完成300亿美元融资，投后估值达3800亿美元。 ...