【棉花市场消息速递】 国际棉花咨询委员会（ICAC）的预测显示，全球棉花贸易量稳定在970万吨。全球2025/26年度棉花产 量预计将达到2590万吨，小幅超过预计的消费量2560万吨。 北京时间8月8日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报66.42美分/磅，现报每 吨66.31美分/磅，跌幅0.08%，盘中最高触及66.45美分/磅，最低下探66.30美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 8月7日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 66.89 67.44 66.38 66.44 -0.69% 据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新数据，截至8月1日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单50228手， 环比减少2640手；未点价买入订单105129手，环比增加3301手。 8月7日，郑商所棉花期货仓单8677张，环比上个交易日减少135张。 ...

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Domestic Market - Zhengzhou cotton futures adjusted with position reduction and contract switching. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low - basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales were at CF09 + 1500 and above, picked up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) in North and South Xinjiang was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' supply was reported around 1550 - 1750, picked up in the inland [7]. - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a drop of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning mills were still limiting production. Due to losses in cotton yarn, the price - concession was not large, and the decline in Xinjiang spinning mills was relatively larger. The spot market for all - cotton grey cloth continued to have insufficient transactions. The sampling orders of fabric mills were less than the same period of previous years, and there were few actual orders, mostly for rigid demand. It was expected that the factory production would remain sluggish in early August, and fabric mills would still produce conventional varieties, with improvement expected to start in mid - August [7]. International Market - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period of the previous year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period of the previous year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period of the previous year), and the lint - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period of the previous year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained a range - bound shock [8]. Overall Market Outlook - There was still more than a month until the new cotton was listed. The market expected the opening price would not be higher than 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to a lint processing cost of around 13,500 yuan/ton. The downstream industry was still weak, and the finished - product inventory of fabric mills was still high, but there was an increase in local sampling orders, and the marginal deterioration of the downstream slowed down. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market stabilized with shocks. The near - month contracts were under pressure as they were approaching delivery and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports totaled 170.741 billion US dollars (169.680 billion US dollars in the same period of the previous year), a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 11.604 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.162 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][17][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown slight increases, with the current price reported at 67.01 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.13% rise [1] - On August 6, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.16 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.90 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.27% [2] - The average import price of cotton on August 6 was 74.66 cents per pound, which is an increase of 0.47 cents per pound compared to August 5 [2] Group 2 - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton was reported at 15,195 yuan per ton, which is an increase of 15 yuan per ton compared to August 5 [2] - The average price for 3128 cotton delivered to factories was 15,122 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 40 yuan per ton [2] - The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,812, which is a decrease of 99 receipts compared to the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from increased production, and Dalian palm oil futures are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. - Crude oil pressure and bearish CBOT soybeans affect vegetable oil prices. Domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to improved demand [1]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are expected to find strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downside space for domestic soybean meal is limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strength of oils may limit the rise of meal [3]. Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are slightly down but may bottom - out. The short - term outlook is not optimistic, and the 09 contract faces pressure. The 01 contract is affected by policies, and caution is needed regarding hedging funds [6]. Corn Industry - The corn market is weak in the short - term, with prices fluctuating. New - season corn may face supply pressure, and the market valuation may decline [8]. Sugar Industry - International raw sugar prices are expected to have difficulty breaking previous lows but are generally bearish. The domestic sugar market has weak demand, and a bearish trend is expected [13]. Cotton Industry - The supply - side pressure of cotton has marginally eased, but the downstream industry is still weak. Consider reducing positions in the 09 contract and holding short positions in far - month contracts [14]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is expected to increase in August, while demand will enter the peak season. However, due to large supply pressure, a bearish trading strategy is recommended [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,580 yuan, up 1.18%. The Y2509 futures price is 8,406 yuan, up 0.74%. The basis is 136 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8,900 yuan, down 0.56%. The P2509 futures price is 9,064 yuan, down 1.04%. The basis is - 164 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 9,700 yuan, up 0.21%. The O1509 futures price is 9,562 yuan, down 0.55%. The basis is 138 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [1]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, down 0.68%. The M2509 futures price is 3,026 yuan, up 0.10%. The basis is - 106 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,690 yuan, up 1.89%. The RM2509 futures price is 2,745 yuan, up 0.77%. The basis is - 55 yuan, and the inventory is unchanged [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4,118 yuan, up 0.05%. The basis is - 158 yuan, and the inventory is down 0.42% [3]. Pig Industry - Spot prices in various regions have slightly declined. The sample point slaughter volume decreased by 0.51%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 29.46% [6]. Corn Industry - The corn 2509 futures price is 2,259 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis is 61 yuan, down 14.08%. The 9 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, up 18.18% [8]. - The corn starch 2509 futures price is 2,662 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 48 yuan, down 14.29% [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar 2601 futures price is 5,628 yuan, down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.04 cents/pound, down 0.31%. The basis in Nanning is 317 yuan, down 4.80% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, sales increased by 23.07%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [13]. Cotton Industry - The cotton 2509 futures price is 13,690 yuan, up 0.26%. The ICE US cotton主力 is 66.92 cents/pound, down 0.36%. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1,393 yuan, down 2.31% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 10.2%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, and imports decreased by 25% [14]. Egg Industry - The egg 09 contract is 3,378 yuan/500KG, up 1.44%. The egg 10 contract is 3,285 yuan/500KG, up 1.01%. The basis is - 371 yuan/500KG, down 24.51% [17]. - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, a 0.52% increase [17].

Report Information - **Report Date**: August 7, 2025 [2] - **Industry**: Cotton [1] - **Research Analysts**: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing position reduction, contract switching, and oscillatory adjustments. The spot cotton price has increased slightly, while the cotton yarn market price continues to decline, and the cotton fabric market remains sluggish. The international cotton market maintains a range - bound oscillation, and the domestic cotton has a high yield expectation, but the downstream industry is weak. After the short - term release of pessimistic sentiment, the market stabilizes, and the near - term contracts are under pressure [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a state of position reduction, contract switching, and oscillatory adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market price continues to decline by about 300 yuan/ton, with many inland spinning mills still limiting production. The cotton fabric market has insufficient transactions, and the factory production is expected to be sluggish in early August and improve in mid - August. The domestic cotton sown area has increased year - on - year, and there is still an expectation of a high yield. However, the downstream industry is weak, and the near - term contracts are under pressure [7][8] - **International Market**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, remaining stable from the previous week and higher than the same period last year. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slower, and the external market maintains a range - bound oscillation. [8] 3.2. Industry News - As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvest progress in Brazil is 29.7%, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvest is slower due to the impact of rain during the planting stage in Mato Grosso. However, the cotton growth is good, and the listing is expected to accelerate after the completion of corn and wheat harvests [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, but no specific data analysis is provided [15][19][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a strong fluctuation in cotton futures prices, with the current price at 66.53 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - As of July 31, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton reached 30,127,638 bales, totaling 6,803,087 tons, which is an increase of 18.79% year-on-year [1] - The inspection volume for Xinjiang cotton reached 6,432,548 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.22% [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2023, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week-on-week, totaling 335,400 tons [2] - In Shandong province, the inventory at Qingdao and Jinan ports dropped by 5.90% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.64% [2] - The Indian Cotton Association forecasts that the cotton arrival volume on July 31, 2025, will be approximately 9,500 bales, or 1,615 tons [2]