Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight recovery, increasing by approximately 0.30% during the Asian session on September 19, breaking a two-day decline [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce on September 17, but faced selling pressure following optimistic labor market data, leading to profit-taking and a shift towards the dollar [1][3] - Analysts noted that profit-taking was driven by a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy changes, with expectations of rate cuts tempered by Chairman Powell's comments indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the initiation of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have struggled to find upward momentum, remaining above $3600 per ounce [3] - The market's risk-averse sentiment persists, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year limiting the downside for gold [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance around $3670, with support at approximately $3630, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of recovery following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which has further pressured gold prices [4] - Positive initial jobless claims data from the U.S. has also contributed to downward pressure on gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is operating smoothly, with active trading and a balanced supply and demand situation as of August 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Activity - In August, non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, conducted cross-border receipts and payments totaling $1.3 trillion, representing an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments have increased, indicating steady development in cross-border trade and investment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - In August, there was a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $3.2 billion, with a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1] - The net inflow of funds from merchandise trade remained stable, while foreign investment showed a net purchase of domestic stocks and bonds [1] - Service trade and investment income saw a seasonal decline in net outflow [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Overall, the current foreign exchange market in China is characterized by active trading, a basic balance in supply and demand, and stable market expectations [1]

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index showed a rebound after hitting a low, with a high of 97.047 and a low of 96.188, closing at 97.003 [1] - The index faced pressure after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut but surged again following comments from Powell, indicating potential for further increases [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at 97.80 for the weekly and 97.60 for the daily, with support at 96.80-90 for the four-hour timeframe [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline, with a high of 3707.3 and a low of 3646.03, closing at 3659.79 [3] - The market showed weakness after breaking the four-hour support at 3674, indicating a bearish trend [3] - Key support levels to watch are 3610-3613 for the daily and 3674 for the four-hour timeframe, with a focus on the price's ability to hold above these levels [4] Group 3: Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair also saw a decline, with a low of 1.1807 and a high of 1.1918, closing at 1.1811 [6] - The market remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve's decisions, with key support at 1.1730 for the daily timeframe [6] - Resistance levels are noted at 1.1830-40 for the four-hour timeframe, with a focus on potential pullbacks to the daily support [6] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data and events to watch include Switzerland's trade balance, the UK central bank's interest rate decision, and US jobless claims [8] - Other important indicators include the Eurozone's current account and the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index [8]

Report Information - Report Title: "Large Class Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: September 17, 2025 - Author: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, etc. were 4.029, 4.638, 3.488 respectively. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.010, and the yearly change was 0.319 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. were 3.560, 3.960, 2.000 respectively. There were also different changes in different time - spans [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - Exchange Rates and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.297, and there were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change was -0.37%, and the yearly change was -5.40% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - Index Values and Changes: On September 16, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6606.760, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 45757.900, etc. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was -0.13%, and the yearly change was 22.16% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Index Changes: The latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were presented. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was 0.04%, and the yearly change was 4.72% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3861.87, 4523.34, 2947.82 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, and others were 14.09, 11.80, 34.32 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Risk Premium - Risk Premium and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 and German DAX were -0.39 and 2.50 respectively, with环比 changes [4]. Fund Flows - Fund Flow Values: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -305.93 [4]. Trading Volumes - Trading Volumes and Changes: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 23414.02, 6137.28, etc., with环比 changes [4]. Main Contract Basis and Premium/Discount - Basis and Premium/Discount: The basis and percentage of premium/discount of IF, IH, IC were given. For example, the basis of IF was -6.54, and the percentage was -0.14% [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.000, 105.795, 107.680, 105.680 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. Fund Interest Rates - Interest Rates and Daily Changes: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M interest rates were 1.4778%, 1.4998%, 1.5530% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [5]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 3651.10, 42.26, 1399.00, 1218.00, 63.30, and 10119.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 38.00 [2] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.36, 1.18, 1.36, 147.42, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 16411.68, 1231.26, and 1283.61 respectively, with changes of 0.00, - 12.22, and 0.00 [3] - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 976.81 and 15059.74 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 0.00 [3] - The latest deferred - fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 2 and 1 respectively, with changes of 1.00 and 0.00 [3]

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle in September, which typically puts downward pressure on the dollar[4] - The dollar index has completed a significant correction, with the market pricing in the Fed's policy path adequately[6] - The dollar's strength is increasingly influenced by the relative performance of other major currencies rather than solely by the U.S. economy[6] Group 2: Eurozone and Pound Sterling Challenges - Eurozone economic data, such as the August composite PMI at 51, indicates insufficient growth momentum, limiting the euro's upward potential[6][7] - The UK faces fiscal policy uncertainty, with the Chancellor's budget announcement set for November 26, leading to market speculation and pressure on the pound[7] - The relative weakness of other currencies, including the euro and pound, supports the dollar's stability even in a loosening cycle[7] Group 3: Renminbi Stability - The renminbi index has shown a high correlation with the dollar index over the past two years, maintaining relative stability during dollar corrections[9][11] - China's economic policy is shifting towards growth stabilization and structural optimization, contributing to the renminbi's resilience[11] - The renminbi is positioned to act as a stabilizing anchor in the Asian currency system amid global currency fluctuations[11]

Dollar Index - The dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday, with a high of 97.679 and a low of 97.246, closing at 97.326 [1] - Weekly analysis indicates that the price is currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.80; a close above this level is needed for a bullish outlook [1] - Daily resistance is at 97.70, and the price must stabilize above this level for potential upward movement; otherwise, it remains under pressure [1] - The four-hour resistance is between 97.40-50, and the price is currently viewed as bearish unless it breaks above this range [1] Gold - Gold prices generally increased on Monday, reaching a high of 3685.43 and a low of 3626.42, closing at 3678.72 [3] - Monthly analysis shows a bullish trend, with 3000 as a critical long-term support level; prices above this level are considered bullish [4] - Weekly analysis indicates that the price has broken key resistance and is making new historical highs, with a critical support level at 3415 [4] - Daily support is at 3578, and the four-hour support is between 3657-3658, with a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [4][6] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1715 and a high of 1.1774, closing at 1.1760 [6] - Monthly analysis indicates a bullish outlook as long as the price remains above 1.1060; the weekly support level is at 1.1690 [6] - Daily resistance is at 1.1710, and the price is expected to remain bullish above this level; four-hour support is between 1.1740-50 [6] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and Canadian CPI, which may impact market sentiment [8][9]

Core Insights - The article presents a comprehensive market monitoring dashboard covering multiple asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, providing traders with indicators for trend, reversal, volatility, and overbought/oversold conditions [1]. Asset Classification - The assets are categorized into four main classes: Equity, FX, Commodities, and Crypto, each with specific indicators for analysis [2]. Key Assets and Recent Changes - Key assets to focus on include: - **Equity**: SP500_US and Nasdaq100_US are highlighted for their significant volatility and potential for trend continuation or reversal [1]. - **China Stocks**: CSI300_China and SSE_China are noted for their low valuations and potential rebound, albeit with high volatility [1]. - **Forex**: USDJPY and USDCNY are emphasized due to significant central bank policy differences, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are suitable for macro hedging [1]. - **Commodities**: Gold and CrudeWTI are driven by safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, while CopperHG and Soybean are sensitive to economic cycles and Chinese demand [1]. - **Cryptocurrency**: BTCUSD and ETHUSD are recognized for their high volatility and suitability for swing trading [1]. Potential Trading Opportunities - Trading opportunities are identified based on specific numerical indicators, such as extreme Sigma values indicating potential rebounds or trend continuations [3]. Suggested Operational Framework - Strategies include: - **Rebound Opportunities**: Identifying assets with low Sigma values and reversal signals for potential rebounds [4]. - **Trend Continuation**: Following assets where EMA20 is above EMA100, indicating an upward trend [4]. - **Volatility Strategies**: Utilizing high VolRank and rising ATR% for options strategies or breakout trades [4]. Risk Considerations - Risks include: - **Overbought Risks**: High Sigma values indicating potential short-term overheating [4]. - **Trend Reversal Risks**: Signals indicating potential reversals, especially with high deviation [4]. - **Liquidity/Volatility Risks**: Extreme market conditions requiring position control [4]. Multi-Asset Comparison and Risk Management - Emphasis on comparing assets within the same category and using multiple indicators for comprehensive analysis [4]. - Risk management is prioritized, with all trades requiring stop-loss measures based on volatility and drawdown metrics [4]. - The technical analysis should be complemented with macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical events [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US inflation pressure persists, and the US dollar is expected to continue its downward trend. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed takes a hawkish stance, the market may face a correction. The ECB kept its policy unchanged in September and entered a data - dependent wait - and - see phase [1][2] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields increased. The yield of US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 14.7, the spot commodity index fluctuated, and Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index in China rose 1.52%, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose 3.82%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 4.07%. The US inflation has stickiness, and the employment market is weakening. The market is waiting for the Fed's September interest rate meeting. If the Fed is hawkish, the market may correct. China's August import and export data were below expectations, and inflation recovery is slow [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields increased, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 4.06%. The market's concern about inflation eased after the US August PPI was lower than expected, but the rebound of CPI limited the downward space of US Treasury bond yields. Eurozone government bond yields mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed trends. China's 10 - year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, and the bond market remained under pressure [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.22% to 97.55, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.02%, the euro rose 0.14%, the pound rose 0.34%, the Swiss franc rose 0.18%, while the yen fell 0.17%, and the Canadian dollar and the Korean won depreciated. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Thai baht, and peso appreciated by more than 1% [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.6% to $3643 per ounce, reaching a new high. However, it may face short - term correction risks. Brent crude oil rose 3.8% to $67.6 per barrel, but its long - term upward trend may not be sustainable. The spot commodity index fluctuated [28][29][30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US inflation met expectations. The CPI rebounded as expected, and the PPI was lower than expected. Inflation may face further upward pressure in the short term, and the labor market may be weaker than it seems [31][33] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Next week, there will be interest rate meetings of the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, as well as the release of important economic data such as China's August social retail and industrial growth, and the US August retail sales [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on September 12, 2025, by the macro team of the research center [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bond Yields**: Yields showed various changes across different economies. For example, the US 10 - year yield on September 11, 2025, was 4.022, with a latest change of - 0.025, a one - week change of - 0.140, a one - month change of - 0.264, and a one - year change of 0.190 [3] - **2 - year Government Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year yield on September 11, 2025, was 3.540, with a latest change of 0.050, a one - week change of - 0.120, a one - month change of - 0.070, and a one - year change of - 0.370 [3] 2.2 Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The USD/Brazilian Real exchange rate on September 11, 2025, was 5.389, with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 1.06%, a one - month change of - 0.52%, and a one - year change of - 4.52% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate on September 11, 2025, was 7.119, with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of - 0.32%, a one - month change of - 0.88%, and a one - year change of - 0.04% [3] 2.3 Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index on September 11, 2025, was 6587.470, with a latest change of 0.85%, a one - week change of 1.31%, a one - month change of 1.84%, and a one - year change of 19.15% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: The Hang Seng Index on September 11, 2025, was 26086.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a one - week change of 4.10%, a one - month change of 2.22%, and a one - year change of 47.79% [3] 2.4 Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index on September 11, 2025, was 3529.910, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of 1.28%, a one - month change of 2.09%, and a one - year change of 5.49% [3][4] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - The closing price of the A - share index was 3875.31, with a change of 1.65% [5] 3.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.18, with a环比 change of 0.24 [5] 3.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.37, with a环比 change of 0.00 [5] 3.4 Fund Flows - The latest value of fund flows into A - shares was 1342.66, and the 5 - day average was 30.55 [5] 4. Government Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 government bond futures was 107.880, with a change of - 0.31% [6] 5. Other Stock Indices - The Malaysian index on September 11, 2025, was 1582.850, with a latest change of - 0.50%, a one - week change of 0.30% [9]