Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered an upward platform period, with investor sentiment leaning towards risk aversion before the holiday, but a potential recovery in trading willingness post-holiday due to reduced macro uncertainties [1] Market Analysis - The market is expected to experience a period of low-volume fluctuations as the positive feedback from capital continues and the fundamentals improve [1] - After the holiday, there is a window for policy and performance layout as investor trading willingness is likely to recover [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to make slight adjustments to their positions, focusing on low-position sectors such as Hong Kong technology, domestic computing power, and robotics [1] - In the context of "anti-involution," attention should also be given to leading companies in chemicals, batteries, and mass consumer goods [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global stock markets, driven by valuation attractiveness and structural changes in the economy [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy of the fund manager focuses on growth style, with a balanced approach that does not exceed 25% in any single industry, emphasizing valuation and a bottom-up investment approach [2][3] - The manager's investment philosophy includes three main characteristics: a growth-oriented style, balanced investment across sectors, and a focus on valuation [2][3] Stock Selection Framework - The stock selection framework is based on three dimensions: competitive barriers, market conditions, and valuation [3][4] - Competitive barriers are prioritized, focusing on business models and corporate culture, with an emphasis on differentiation and scale effects [3] - Market conditions are particularly important for TMT companies, while valuation is assessed using a five-year implied return to evaluate cost-effectiveness [4] Market Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with a focus on technology sectors such as 3D stacking, semiconductor manufacturing, and cloud computing [4] - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from economic stabilization and a potential influx of foreign capital due to the U.S. interest rate cuts [5][6] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on identifying companies with clear alpha characteristics rather than merely chasing beta trends, particularly in the context of small-cap stocks in the Hong Kong market [6] - The manager emphasizes the importance of free cash flow and believes that the valuation of leading companies in the Hong Kong market presents strong cost-effectiveness [5][6] Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector has entered a long-term reversal phase, with significant growth potential as leading companies achieve breakeven and improve self-sustainability [6][7] - The investment strategy in the innovation drug sector is shifting towards leading companies, with a focus on business development and commercialization stages [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment among retail investors is cautious ahead of the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, while institutional investors remain optimistic about future market trends [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Retail investors are advised to hold cash due to cautious trading sentiment [1] - Institutional investors are optimistic about the market outlook despite retail caution [1] Group 2: Market Movements - A significant divergence in market behavior was noted on September 18, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - The market experienced a rise of 800 to 900 points before the rate cut, leading to expectations of a downward correction [1] - Despite high selling pressure, the index was not significantly impacted by bearish forces, indicating strong support from bullish investors [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has shown clear divergence in performance, with not all stocks moving in tandem during market fluctuations [1] - The technology sector is expected to see a rebound, particularly in areas such as robotics computing and upstream suppliers of Nvidia, while energy storage and wind power are anticipated to rise [1] - A bullish trend is expected in the next two trading days, with a focus on positive market movements [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the TMT sector, particularly focusing on the revaluation of Hong Kong technology companies and the expected growth in AI applications [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing revaluation of Hong Kong technology companies, driven by significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, particularly by leading firms like Alibaba [2][3]. - There is a strong belief in the growth potential of the AI computing domestic chain and the sustained demand from the overseas chain, with various sectors such as AI chips, servers, and optical modules expected to experience high growth [3][6]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in the fruit supply chain, particularly in AI hardware innovation, driven by collaborations with companies like OpenAI and the strong product performance from Apple [4][6]. - The PCB industry is viewed positively due to the rising demand for high-end products driven by AI computing, while the storage industry is expected to recover with price increases anticipated in Q4 [6][7]. - The gaming industry is also noted for its growth potential, with record revenues and a growing user base, indicating a favorable investment environment [8]. Summary by Sections AI and Cloud Infrastructure - The report discusses Alibaba's ambitious AI infrastructure plan, which includes a significant investment of 380 billion yuan over three years, aiming to enhance its AI capabilities and cloud services [2]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications is expected to create a new high-certainty growth cycle for cloud services and AI infrastructure [2][7]. AI Computing Chain - The domestic AI computing chain is expected to see growth across various sectors, including AI chips and servers, with specific companies recommended for investment [3]. - The overseas AI computing chain is also highlighted, with recommendations for companies involved in optical modules and AI servers [3]. Fruit Supply Chain - Companies involved in the fruit supply chain are expected to benefit from AI hardware innovations, particularly those collaborating with major tech firms [4]. PCB and Storage Industries - The PCB industry is projected to benefit from the high demand for advanced products due to AI computing, with specific companies identified as potential beneficiaries [6]. - The storage industry is entering a recovery phase, with price increases expected and significant growth opportunities identified for enterprise-level storage solutions [6]. Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is experiencing robust growth, with record revenues and a large user base, suggesting continued investment opportunities [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend after the National Day holiday, with a focus on the TMT sector for investment opportunities [1][3] - In September, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with most indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index, while the Shanghai 50 Index experienced the largest decline [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a volatile upward trend in September, influenced by external interest rate cuts and improved domestic risk appetite, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% [2] Group 2 - The report suggests that historical trends indicate a positive market performance following the National Day holiday, with reasonable valuations supporting the expected upward movement [3] - The TMT sector is highlighted as having significant catalysts for growth, including ongoing industry trends and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [3][4] - The report recommends a "barbell" investment strategy focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield stocks, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, utilities, and banking [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities suggests that the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend after the National Day holiday, supported by historical performance patterns and reasonable market valuations [1] Market Performance - Historically, the A-share market tends to perform well after the National Day holiday as trading activity picks up [1] - The current market valuation is considered reasonable, with no significant overextension observed [1] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector as a key investment direction [1] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from several catalysts, including ongoing industrial trends and the potential onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle [1] - Recent trends indicate that the TMT sector has already shown relative strength, suggesting that this momentum may continue in the future [1]

Market Overview - In September, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, with most major A-share indices showing an upward trend, particularly the ChiNext Index, while the SSE 50 Index experienced the largest decline [4] - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by the overseas interest rate cuts and improved domestic risk appetite, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 12.4% [4] A-share Insights - The market is expected to continue its upward trend after the National Day holiday, supported by historical trends of increased trading activity post-holiday and reasonable market valuations [5] - The TMT sector is recommended as a key focus for investment, driven by liquidity and various catalysts such as ongoing industrial trends and the commencement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [5] Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to support a continued upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market, which has strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations [6] - A "barbell" strategy is suggested for investment, focusing on sectors like self-controllable technology, high-end manufacturing, and high-dividend low-volatility stocks such as telecommunications and utilities [6]

Core Insights - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) has experienced a significant bullish trend in its stock performance, effectively managing uncertainties and overcoming challenges related to a partnership with Novo Nordisk [1] Company Performance - The company has shown resilience in navigating market fluctuations and has successfully maintained momentum despite external pressures [1]

Market Overview - As of September 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,853.30 points, a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the end of August. The major indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext indices experiencing significant gains while the Shanghai 50 index saw a minor decline [3][13]. - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, rose by 4.2% from January to August [10][48]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue improving, with significant long-term funds holding approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3][26]. - The net reduction in major shareholders' holdings in September was 456.82 billion yuan, while the total amount of A-share unlocks was about 3,179.75 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous month [26][30]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market from September 1 to 25 was 24,545.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.36% increase from the previous month [30]. Valuation Levels - As of September 25, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the STAR 50 index is at a historical high of 99.85% [41][44]. - The valuation of various industries shows that sectors like commerce, telecommunications, electronics, and media have PE ratios exceeding the historical 50% percentile, indicating strong market performance [46]. Policy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with the government implementing measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand. Recent policies include a focus on enhancing service consumption and improving financial support [48][49]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, aiming to maintain liquidity and facilitate economic recovery [20][48].

Exchange Rate Projections - Under the baseline scenario, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to approach 7.0 by the end of the year[1] - In an optimistic scenario, with extraordinary counter-cyclical policies, the new equilibrium for USD/CNY could be around 6.7[1] Monetary Policy Implications - A potential interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points (BP) by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Q4 may not delay RMB appreciation but could intensify it[1] - The current market does not fully anticipate a rate cut, meaning the existing exchange rate does not factor in this possibility[1] Economic Context - The recent RMB appreciation is not driven by strong economic fundamentals but rather by expectations and a self-fulfilling cycle of currency appreciation[1][10] - The Chinese government's debt cost is currently lower than economic growth rates, supporting fiscal expansion and the exchange rate[1] Investment Insights - RMB appreciation is expected to benefit Chinese stocks, with historical data showing that a 1% appreciation typically leads to a 2.73% increase in A-shares and a 4.52% increase in Hong Kong stocks[6] - The current RMB appreciation cycle has seen A-shares rise by an average of 8.31% and Hong Kong stocks by 10.52% since April 8, 2025[6] Risks and Considerations - Risks include misinterpretation of policy, unexpected monetary policy actions, and potential increases in U.S. tariffs[50]