1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", suggesting a lack of clear driving forces and an expected period of mainly oscillatory movement [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester market is experiencing a situation where fundamentals and sentiment are in resonance, leading to a decline in the chemical sector, with polyester following suit. Various factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and others are influencing the market, and overall, the market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Some ports are responding to sanctions, causing disruptions in China's crude oil imports. The optimization demand for oil products may be better than the chemical demand. For the PTA segment, the domestic PTA device supply has slightly contracted, the PTA basis has stabilized, and the PX device operating rate has been stable. However, due to sentiment disruptions, costs have weakened, and polyester is expected to decline accordingly [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester has remained at around 90%. The inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, with the main increase in polyester load concentrated in the bottle - chip variety, and the weaving - end load has remained stable [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased by 50,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up during the holiday [4]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is very loose [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha has reached $220, and the PTA processing fee has remained at around 200 yuan, with a slight expansion [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a moderately low level. After the domestic maintenance season ended, the reforming device has gradually recovered, but attention should be paid to the disruptions to the PX raw material supply caused by the current sanctions [4]. - **Macro Policy**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched a legal investigation into Qualcomm for suspected violations of the Anti - Monopoly Law due to its failure to legally report the concentration of business operators in its acquisition of Autotalks [4]. - **Investment View**: There are no obvious driving forces, and the market is expected to mainly oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - The market anticipates an oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an estimated surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day. In the first quarter of 2026, as OPEC+ increases production, the surplus is expected to further increase to 2.3 million barrels per day. China has been increasing its SPR strategic reserves, adding to the global additional demand for crude oil. Most of the current crude oil increments come from the Middle East, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [24]. - The US government shutdown may affect gasoline demand during the off - season. North American refineries are operating at high loads. As winter approaches and the North American RVP changes, the increasing demand for butane blending may make it difficult to maintain gasoline profits. The change in North American cracking spreads may affect Asian gasoline cracking spreads, and the cracking spreads in major global regions may weaken [50]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's new device, the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons has increased. The profit from selective disproportionation has declined. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, and the operating rate of PX has significantly recovered [33][63]. - The price of pure benzene is suppressing the disproportionation profit. The supply of MX is expected to increase starting in October, and the future domestic xylene capacity addition will continue at a high rate. In 2026, a total of 1.7 million tons of xylene devices from several companies are waiting to be commissioned [63]. - The processing fee of PTA has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. The downstream load of polyester has remained above 90%, indicating optimistic market demand. Mainstream PTA factories have planned to reduce production, and the PTA operating rate may further improve, but it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [70]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price has been weakly operating. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China is still at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are limited, the overseas import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and the commissioning of domestic new devices has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has recovered, and the device load has increased [77][83]. - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation impacts [85]. - **Polyester**: Polyester has continued to maintain a high load, and the production of polyester has increased while the downstream has entered the off - season [91][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - For each sector, some varieties are selected to give option strategies and suggestions, and option strategy reports are compiled based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions for each option variety [8]. - Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - For different energy - chemical option varieties, data on the latest price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of the underlying contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2512 is 449, with a price change of - 20 and a price change rate of - 4.27% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point. Data on volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change for different option varieties are provided [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. Data on the underlying contract, at - the - money exercise price, pressure point, pressure point deviation, support point, support point deviation, maximum call open interest, and maximum put open interest for different option varieties are given [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility, are provided for different option varieties [6]. 3.5 Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The OPEC+ started a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day in October, and the market is worried about long - term oversupply. The market shows a weak trend. Suggested strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: The PDH device maintenance situation is stable, but the profit is declining. The market shows an oversold rebound with pressure. Suggested strategies are similar to those of crude oil [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port inventory has increased, and the market shows a weak trend. Suggested strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply load has increased slightly, and the market is weak. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy for directionality, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The commercial inventory has increased, and the market is weak. Suggested strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Inventory has decreased, and the market shows a weak consolidation. Suggested strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The market start - up rate is 75.61%, and the supply support is insufficient. The market is weak. Suggested strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The start - up rate has decreased, and inventory has increased. The market shows a downward trend with pressure. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy for directionality and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has increased, and the market shows a low - level weak consolidation. Suggested strategies include a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - The supply utilization rate has increased, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased. The market shows a low - level weak consolidation. Suggested strategies include a bearish spread strategy for directionality, a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

Core Insights - China is the world's second-largest goods import market, presenting significant opportunities for global trade [1] - In the first three quarters, the decline in prices of some major commodities affected import growth, but the quantity index of imports increased by 0.6% year-on-year [1] - Import volumes of crude oil and metal ores rose by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, while the import value of food, tobacco, and cultural products grew by 10.2% and 9.4% [1] - The removal of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector led to a 1.1% increase in imports from foreign-invested enterprises [1] Import Growth and Market Expansion - China is actively expanding its import market, having added 135 new agricultural and food products from 50 countries and regions in the first three quarters [1] - A 100% zero-tariff policy on products from the least developed countries with which China has diplomatic relations resulted in a 9.7% increase in imports from these nations [1] - China is promoting economic partnership agreements, implementing a 100% zero-tariff policy for products from 53 African countries [1] Upcoming Events and Innovations - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held in Shanghai next month, serving as a platform for showcasing new products and facilitating entry for multinational companies into the Chinese market [1] - Innovative products, including family companion robots and advanced technology items, will debut at the expo [1] - Customs will enhance clearance measures and innovate regulatory models to help global enterprises access China's vast market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as trade frictions, government shutdowns, and central bank policies, showing complex and volatile trends. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external impacts [10][14][15] - In the face of uncertainties such as trade conflicts and policy changes, investors need to closely monitor market dynamics, pay attention to key events and data, and make investment decisions based on risk - return assessments [14][15][40] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The US stock market experienced a "Black Friday" due to factors such as intensified trade war risks and the continuous shutdown of the US federal government. China implemented export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth related items and countermeasures against US restrictions on the shipbuilding industry. The US added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "Entity List" [10] - Multiple brokerages adjusted the margin conversion ratios of some stocks. The US Federal Reserve officials showed a dovish attitude towards interest rate cuts. The US consumer confidence index declined slightly, and the inflation expectation decreased slightly. The retail sales of the Chinese passenger car market increased in September, with a significant increase in new energy vehicles [11][12] 2. Macro Finance 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Pay attention to the trading volume of broad - based ETFs, the value of long - term options, and the reverse arbitrage trend of stock index futures. A - shares fell on Friday, and the night - session was affected by trade expectations. The market is concerned about the impact of trade conflicts again, and there may be short - term fluctuations if the 100% tariff is implemented [14] 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Adopt an oscillating approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The capital market is balanced and loose, and the bond market is expected to oscillate. Be cautious of short - term fluctuations caused by trade conflicts [15] 3. Black 3.1 Iron and Steel and Ore - From a macro perspective, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions is negative for the market. The peak season is approaching, but the real demand for steel products has limited improvement, and the market may oscillate or have an off - peak peak season. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. Steel mills' profits are at a low level, and raw material costs are oscillating [17] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply is gradually recovering, and the market focus returns to the supply - demand side. The supply of coking coal may face resistance in the medium - term, and the short - term demand support is weak [19] 3.3 Ferroalloys - Manganese silicon is expected to have a weak consolidation. The inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port has increased, and the weekly output of manganese silicon in Yunnan may decrease in the future. The market may open lower on Monday, and it is recommended to partially close short positions if the decline exceeds 3% [19][20] 3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, adopt a short - selling approach when the price is high; for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. The soda ash industry has a supply - demand contradiction, and the glass industry needs to pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and downstream procurement [21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 4.1 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long if the situation eases after a significant decline. For alumina, it is recommended to short - sell when the price is high as the supply is excessive [23] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate. The supply is increasing, and the short - term inventory reduction supports the price. The impact of Sino - US trade relations on short - term prices needs attention [24] 4.3 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a range - bound oscillation. The key factors for supply - demand are the resumption progress of large manufacturers in Xinjiang and the production suspension plan of downstream polysilicon manufacturers [25][26] 4.4 Polysilicon - The spot price is firm, and the decline space of polysilicon futures is limited. Pay attention to policy progress and adopt a wait - and - see approach [27] 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Cotton - Adopt a short - selling approach when the price is high. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as trade tariffs and the US government shutdown, and the supply is increasing [29] 5.2 Sugar - Adopt a short - selling approach. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus, and the domestic sugar market is under pressure from supply and inventory [31] 5.3 Eggs - It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. The supply - demand of eggs is loose, and the spot price is weak. The futures price is expected to repair the valuation, and the bottom - fishing needs to be cautious [33] 5.4 Apples - Apples are expected to oscillate. The listing of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed due to rain. The acquisition prices in different regions vary, and the impact of continuous rainfall on apple quality needs attention [35] 5.5 Corn - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. The new corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure [36] 5.6 Jujubes - The short - term market may be strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. The market price is stable, and the opening price is expected to be high [37] 5.7 Pigs - It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - term contracts. The supply - demand pattern after the double festivals is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price is expected to continue to be weak [38] 6. Energy and Chemicals 6.1 Crude Oil - It is recommended to hold existing short positions. The supply of crude oil is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price is gradually moving down. The price may be affected by the Sino - US tariff war and may have a short - term rebound [40] 6.2 Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil will follow the oil price. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [41] 6.3 Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is relatively weak [42] 6.4 Rubber - Rubber may continue to decline due to sentiment, but it is necessary to be cautious when chasing short positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [43] 6.5 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory is high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the port de - stocking process [44] 6.6 Caustic Soda - The price of caustic soda may be weak due to the Sino - US tariff war. The spot and futures markets show different trends affected by various factors [45] 6.7 Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil price. The current is the seasonal demand peak, and the inventory reduction speed in October needs attention [46] 6.8 Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is expected to oscillate. The supply may be excessive, but the low valuation provides support. It is recommended to go long or sell put options near the production cost [47] 6.9 Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to decline in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase short positions if there is a large gap - down opening [48] 6.10 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It is recommended to maintain a short - selling view in the long term. The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [50] 6.11 Pulp - The pulp market is under pressure, but there is support. It is recommended to observe port de - stocking and spot transactions and consider going long in the 01 contract if the spot price is stable [51] 6.12 Logs - Logs are expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, and it is recommended to go long lightly if the spot price holds firm and downstream orders improve [52] 6.13 Urea - The price of urea is expected to be weak. It is recommended to close short positions at an appropriate time [53] 6.14 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber may continue to decline due to sentiment, but it is necessary to be cautious when chasing short positions. The supply of raw materials is stable, and the short - term support comes from device maintenance [54]

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which is expected to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, particularly in the context of a complex external environment and weakening global economic growth [7][22] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a focus on domestic growth stabilization policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [5][21] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a slight adjustment post-holiday, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.51%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49% [3][14] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the active ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.26% [3][14] - The report notes a mixed performance in various asset classes, with coal futures rising by 2.42% and iron ore futures declining by 0.38% [3][14] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [5][15] - The allocation to commodities is maintained at a standard level, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [5][15] Economic Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0% [21][22] - Consumer spending during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in both goods and services consumption [21][22] Industry-Specific Developments - The report highlights the government's support for consumption through the issuance of special bonds totaling 690 billion yuan to promote the replacement of old consumer goods [22][23] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging trade-ins, with a notable increase in sales anticipated [35][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is "Weak" [1][5] 2. Report's Core View - Due to systemic risks, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan/barrel last Friday, and it may continue this trend on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - Short - term view: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak [1] - Medium - term view: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is weak and volatile [1][5] - Intraday view: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2512 contract is a decline [1][5] Driving Factors - Geopolitical and economic factors: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, causing the peripheral financial markets to weaken. The US government is in a shutdown due to the lack of consensus between the two parties. These factors contribute to systemic risks [5] - Supply factors: Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - Geopolitical situation: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing. The "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has diminished [5]

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Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

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