Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation continues to disrupt oil prices, with the geopolitical premium of crude oil fluctuating due to factors related to Russia and Iran. The market should focus on the progress of US - Iran negotiations and India's purchase of Russian oil [2][8]. - Most energy - chemical products have phased support at the expectation level. For example, the cost of asphalt is expected to increase during the reconstruction of heavy - quality raw materials, and pure benzene and styrene are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy - chemical sector is to treat it with a volatile mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 11.08 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Geopolitical tensions, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and the approach of Iranian armed vessels to a US - flagged oil tanker, have led to an increase in geopolitical concerns. The US reducing tariffs on India in exchange for India stopping the purchase of Russian oil poses a threat to Russian oil supply in the later period. The outlook is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. The asphalt futures price is affected by the weakening of crude oil and the expected increase in the supply of distal raw materials due to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared with other products. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As the US - Iran negotiations progress, the fuel oil futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. Geopolitical cooling expectations have driven down the fuel oil futures price. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The situation in Iran also has an impact on fuel oil exports and power - generation demand. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term growth of Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak - volatile trend of crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, its current valuation is low. The outlook is volatile, and it will follow the movement of crude oil [12]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will have a short - term volatile adjustment. After the sharp decline in international oil prices, the impact of the cost side weakens. The fundamentals of PX have limited changes, and factors such as short - covering and the approach of the maintenance season support PX. The outlook is that the short - term price will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [14]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The price fluctuates at a low level, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment. After the sharp decline in upstream costs, the decline has slowed down. PTA mainly follows the movement of upstream costs. The spot basis has slightly recovered, and the polyester production reduction has increased, leading to an expected inventory accumulation in the near - term. The outlook is that it will maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term [14]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Although the current situation is weak, there is still an expectation of improvement, and it shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Recent market changes include a sharp decline in international oil prices, some replenishment demand from downstream before the Spring Festival, and the widening price difference between styrene and pure benzene. The high - inventory situation may limit the increase, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [14][16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. The price of styrene shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. The price is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices and the expected weakening of supply - demand. However, due to export support, the height of seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to be reduced, and the profit compression is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile and upward - biased, with inventory reduction expected to resume in March [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The near - term arrival volume is relatively large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large near - term arrival volume, inventory has been accumulating. Although there is an expectation of a decrease in arrival volume from mid - February, and the polyester demand support is insufficient, the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The outlook is that the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment [20][21]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream polyester raw materials. As the market approaches the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and the short - fiber price maintains a weak - volatile trend. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream, and the support for processing fees will increase [24][25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations. Upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, and polyester bottle chips follow the upstream adjustment. The trading atmosphere has declined slightly, and the market is in a situation of having prices but no transactions. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees will increase [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Overseas disturbances have eased, and some Iranian devices have restarted. Methanol is stable with a downward - biased trend. The spot price in Taicang has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the restart of Iranian devices have increased the expected import volume, putting downward pressure on the futures price. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: New orders are difficult to follow up, and urea shows a volatile adjustment. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is not active, and the price is in a stalemate. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing performance and production enterprise order digestion [29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The upstream production has increased slightly, and the price has fallen back and then fluctuated. The decline in oil prices, the weakening of the overall commodity sentiment, the limited follow - up of spot prices after the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the plastic price. However, there is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Some refinery maintenance has resumed, and PP has fallen back and then fluctuated. Similar to LLDPE, factors such as the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the commodity market sentiment, the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the PP price. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It follows the commodity sentiment and fluctuates. The PDH maintenance still provides some support. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream rigid demand has recovered. The short - term powder profit fluctuates slightly, and the demand support in the off - season is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: There are strong expectations but low valuations, and the pre - holiday rebound should be cautious. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the commodity market sentiment. The "rush for exports" of PVC supports the demand, and inventory has been reduced. However, the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, showing an overall volatile trend [35]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The upstream losses have increased, and it is advisable to wait and see. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the market sentiment. The decline in the price of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the losses of chlor - alkali enterprises. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream will reduce production to relieve the oversupply. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and the upstream production reduction risk has increased [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and complete content for each variety is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, 20 - commodity index, and industrial product index on February 3, 2026, are 2374.28 (- 1.93%), 2707.14 (- 2.40%), and 2290.30 (- 0.97%) respectively [284]. - **Energy Index**: On February 3, 2026, the energy index was 1116.03, with a daily decline of 3.91%, a 5 - day decline of 4.36%, a 1 - month increase of 2.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.71% [286].

Group 1 - The central government's new policy document aims to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing targeted assistance, and ensuring stable income growth for farmers [1] - The document outlines six key areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, advancing rural construction tailored to local conditions, strengthening institutional innovation, and enhancing the Party's leadership over agricultural work [1] Group 2 - Precious metals experienced a rebound influenced by two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which boosted the dollar index, and a significant short-term increase in precious metals prices, particularly silver, leading to profit-taking and increased market volatility [2][20] - The long-term support factors for gold remain intact, and it is expected to return to a steady upward trend after market adjustments, while silver prices are anticipated to remain under pressure in the short term [21] Group 3 - The crude oil market saw a 1.78% increase, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving U.S. military actions against Iranian drones and concerns over increased Venezuelan oil exports exacerbating supply surplus fears [3][15] - The domestic retail prices for refined oil have increased, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [10] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with significant fluctuations in the military and banking sectors, while the overall market outlook for February remains positive due to seasonal trends and policy support [4][12] - The financing balance decreased by 6.009 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [12] Group 5 - The international shipping index for European routes increased by 5.22%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on spot freight rates leading up to the holiday season [34]

Market Overview - On February 3, the market began to recover as it digested the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's leadership change, with gold prices rising over 5% to above $4,900 per ounce and silver prices increasing over 9% to above $86 per ounce[1] - Major indices in the Asia-Pacific region saw significant gains, with the Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI rising by 3.92% and 6.84%, respectively[1] - Domestic stock indices also rebounded, with the CSI 300, CSI 2000, and STAR Market Composite Index increasing by 1.18%, 2.83%, and 2.44% respectively[1] Trading Activity - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 2.57 trillion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan compared to the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.07%[1] - Net inflow of southbound funds was 952 million HKD, with Tencent Holdings seeing a net inflow of 1.955 billion HKD, while SMIC and Alibaba experienced net outflows of 1.577 billion HKD and 1.198 billion HKD, respectively[1] Sector Performance - After a significant drop, individual stocks generally rebounded, particularly in the real estate and liquor sectors, which were active at the market open[2] - The ChiNext Index opened high but briefly turned negative before the thematic market gained momentum, with sectors like commercial aerospace, AI applications, semiconductor equipment, and space photovoltaics seeing substantial increases[2] - The non-ferrous metals sector also rebounded significantly, supported by the recovery in equity markets and stabilization in precious metal prices[2] Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a focus on low-position recovery and thematic speculation, with high-end liquor and core real estate stocks showing resilience[3] - The outflow of funds from stock ETFs has slowed significantly, with net outflows of 16.2 billion yuan and 23.8 billion yuan on February 2 and 3, respectively, compared to nearly 100 billion yuan in mid-January[3] - The market's risk appetite appears to be increasing, as indicated by the North Securities 50 Index's rise of over 3%[2] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The central bank's actions, including a 800 billion yuan reverse repo and a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan, have provided substantial support to the market[5] - The sentiment in the commodity market stabilized after extreme fluctuations, with significant differentiation among various commodities[8] - The gold implied volatility has decreased from a historical high of 46.02 to 37.38, indicating that market sentiment is still adjusting but remains elevated[9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in shock, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 16,180 yuan/ton. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.25% to 16,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. After the short - term bearish sentiment was vented, Shanghai rubber futures stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening downward, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,269 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,239 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly closed down 1.83% to 2,247 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. As the bearish atmosphere intensifies, methanol futures may maintain a weak - volatile trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening downward, and significantly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 453.9 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 446.4 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price significantly closed down 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East weakens and the Fed's hawkish expectations strengthen, the crude oil premium has significantly retreated, and the short - term oil price has started to correct [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons or 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons with a growth rate of 3.34%, and the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons with a growth rate of 0.82%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points. As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 10.22%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year. The domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 200 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 229,500 tons. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1, and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.628 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points. As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 18,190 contracts, and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. As of January 27, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,191 contracts, and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | - 280 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | 2,247 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 449.4 yuan/barrel | +0.4 yuan/barrel | - 16.4 yuan/barrel | - 1.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month spreads, inventory, capacity utilization rate, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][28][40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market and commodity market experienced a surge followed by a decline, with significant emotional amplification observed. The resource sector became the main focus of the market, leading to increased trading volume, but a subsequent profit-taking wave caused a sharp drop in precious and base metals, impacting the equity market as well [1][8][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with resource sectors like non-ferrous metals and gold taking over as the short-term market leaders. However, the market is cautioned against high-level risks due to the lack of performance support in low-performing sectors like liquor and real estate [2][12][11] - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending a focus on sectors that have undergone sufficient corrections, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and communications for the offensive side, while defensive opportunities may be found in dividend-paying sectors like banks [4][13] Group 2 - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, driven by expectations of increased liquidity and a shift of funds seeking safety from the equity market's volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the short term, although long-term challenges remain due to competition for capital from the commodity and equity markets [5][36] - The commodity market is under pressure after a period of rapid growth, with significant corrections observed in precious metals and other commodities. The report warns of potential volatility in the short term but notes that long-term demand for gold and industrial metals remains strong due to technological advancements [6][45][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dual innovation narrative in the equity market, as it is expected to drive future growth amid ongoing liquidity support and a global easing cycle [12][11][13]

Gold Market - Recent sharp decline in gold prices triggered by Trump's appointment of Walsh as the next Fed Chair, but this is only a superficial reason. The main cause of the price drop is the previous irrational surge and profit-taking demands leading to significant correction pressure [1] - The fundamental drivers of the gold bull market remain unchanged. Regardless of who leads the Fed, the necessity for monetary easing persists due to the massive U.S. government debt, indicating that easing will continue to dominate market transactions [1] - The independence of the Fed will face serious challenges from Trump, which could significantly undermine the credibility of the dollar, making further dollar depreciation likely [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the factors driving the gold bull market have not changed, and the bull market remains promising, although short-term bearish influences have not been completely eliminated, indicating potential short-term price correction risks [1] Oil Market - U.S. manufacturing has returned to expansion territory for the first time in a year, with the ISM manufacturing index rising to 52.6, the highest level since August 2022, which is expected to improve oil demand [4] - Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are easing, with Iran's president initiating nuclear negotiations and both sides potentially holding high-level meetings soon, reducing market expectations for military conflict [4] - The consensus is that there is an oversupply in the oil market, which will limit the potential for price increases. However, recent improvements on both supply and demand sides suggest a greater chance for oil prices to fluctuate upwards [4] - Technically, the oil market shows a short-term weakness with recent price declines, but it remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating that excessive bearish sentiment may not be warranted until a significant drop below this average occurs [4] Dollar Index - After a period of decline, the dollar index has rebounded recently, primarily due to the new Fed Chair exceeding market expectations [5] - The dollar index is expected to continue its rebound, supported by improved U.S. manufacturing data, which suggests resilience in the economy, and the lack of increased expectations for Fed rate cuts following Walsh's appointment [5] - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March is 8.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 91.1% [5] Technical Analysis - For gold, the daily chart indicates a downward movement with a bearish candle, signaling potential risks for further price declines [2] - The 4-hour chart shows some stabilization in the current correction, with a short-term risk of further rebounds, focusing on the resistance level around $4992 [3] - In the oil market, the daily chart reflects a recent decline and bearish candle, suggesting short-term weakness, while the price remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating caution against excessive bearish outlooks [4] - The dollar index's daily chart shows a rebound after a doji candlestick, with potential for continued upward movement, while attention should be paid to the resistance level around $98 [6]

Market Overview - A significant decline occurred in the market, with over 4,600 stocks dropping and a median decline of 2.41%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48%, marking one of the largest declines since April 7 of the previous year [1]. Precious Metals - The market for gold and silver saw substantial drops, with gold stocks hitting the limit down and silver LOFs also experiencing limit down. Trading volumes for these assets plummeted, with gold stocks seeing a decrease from 1.5-2 billion to under 700 million in transactions [2]. - The recent rise in gold and silver prices was attributed to geopolitical risks and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, involving countries like Venezuela and Iran [4]. Institutional Actions - Several institutions have begun to reduce their holdings in U.S. dollar assets due to concerns over the unpredictability of the U.S. government and rising national debt. Notable actions include: - The Alekta Pension Fund in Sweden reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by approximately 70-80 billion Swedish Krona. - Danish pension funds are also divesting from U.S. Treasuries, with one fund planning to sell 1 million USD by the end of the month [6]. Market Reactions - Recent market adjustments were influenced by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which stabilized the dollar and suppressed gold prices. Additionally, signals of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributed to market fluctuations [7]. - The current market phase is characterized by a downward adjustment, with expectations of stabilization in the following trading days [8]. Long-term Perspectives - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving central banks to increase their gold reserves, indicating a lack of turning point in asset diversification strategies [13]. - The strategy for gold stocks has shifted, with current prices being favorable for re-entering grid strategies, although caution is advised [13]. Arbitrage Strategies - The silver LOF has seen a halt in arbitrage opportunities, with the last transactions being cleared before the recent downturn. The oil LOF also faced similar challenges, resulting in minor losses for arbitrage attempts [14]. - The oil LOF market has been volatile, with previous experiences leading to skepticism about profitability in arbitrage strategies [15]. Conclusion - Despite recent losses, the potential for future arbitrage remains, with a focus on identifying high-probability success strategies in the market [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear - stated core view in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Performance - **Precious Metals and Commodities**: London gold's latest price is 4714.75 with a change of - 267.10; London silver's change is noted as 127 (unit unclear); London platinum is at 2300.00 with a change of - 492.00; London lithium is 1820.00 with a change of - 286.00; WTI crude oil is 62.14 with a change of - 3.07; LME copper is 12507.50 with a change of - 768.50 [1] - **Currencies and Bonds**: The latest dollar index is 97.61 with a change of 0.50; euro - to - dollar is 1.18 with a change of - 0.01; pound - to - dollar is 1.37 with a change of - 0.00; dollar - to - yen is 155.60 with a change of 0.83 [1] Trading Data - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: COMEX silver inventory is 12618.61 with a change of - 5.88;上期所白银库存is 462.62 with a change of 7.55; gold ETF持仓is 1087.10 with no change;白银ETF持仓is 16546.59 with a change of 1023.23;上金所自银库存is 506.49 with no change [1] Precious Metals Ratios - **Gold - related Ratios**: There are graphs showing gold - crude oil ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - platinum ratio, and platinum - aluminum ratio over different time periods from 2016 - 2025 [1] - **Other Ratios**: COMEX - London spread and import profit ratios for gold and silver are presented in graphical forms [1] Other Graphs - **US Treasury Rates and Spreads**: Graphs show the relationship between US Treasury yields (including 10 - year TIPS), Treasury spreads, and London spot gold prices from 2016 - 2026 [4] - **ETF Holdings and Inventories**: Graphs display the changes in COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories, as well as gold and silver ETF holdings from 2016 - 2026 [4] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Positions and Deliveries**: Graphs show the positions and deliveries of gold and silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 2016 - 2025 [4] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fees**: Graphs present the payment directions of gold and silver deferred fees at the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 2017 - 2025 [4] - **COMEX Non - commercial Long Positions**: Graph shows the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold and silver from 1986 - 2024 [4]