Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 7.0 percentage points compared to October[2] - The decline in exports to the US was 28.6%, widening by 3.4 percentage points from October[4] - Exports of integrated circuits and automobiles surged by 34.2% and 53.0% respectively, contributing significantly to the overall export growth[3] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value, with a 0.9 percentage point acceleration from October[7] - Imports of crude oil decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in import prices by 11.1%[8] - The decline in imports from the US was 19.1%, but this was a smaller drop compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization[9] Market Dynamics - The overall export growth was supported by a shift towards diversified markets, with significant increases in exports to the EU and "Belt and Road" economies, which grew by 14.8% and 10.5% respectively[5] - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to the flexibility and strong pressure resistance of private enterprises, especially in the context of declining US market demand[6] - Future export growth may face challenges due to elevated year-on-year baselines and potential global trade slowdowns, with December exports possibly nearing zero growth[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

Group 1: Policy Evolution - The anti-involution policy has undergone multiple iterations, with the central economic work conference in late 2023 first identifying "overcapacity in certain industries" at the national policy level[1] - In 2024, the focus was on industry self-discipline, but most sectors failed to balance supply and demand[1] - From July 2025, governance shifted to a three-dimensional collaboration of "administrative guidance + legal delineation + industry self-discipline," marking a new policy phase[1] Group 2: Capacity Reduction and Price Control - The current anti-involution strategy centers on capacity reduction, with price control as a supplementary measure[1] - The polysilicon sector is expected to clear 1.5 to 2.23 million tons of outdated capacity through energy consumption constraints and market acquisitions[1] - The cement industry has revised its capacity from 1.8 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons and is piloting online production monitoring[1] Group 3: Industry-Specific Measures - Energy-intensive industries like polysilicon and electrolytic aluminum are using energy consumption as a key metric, with 800,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity set to exit by the end of 2026 if not upgraded[1] - Heavy pollution industries such as cement and coking are facing strict environmental constraints, leading to the clearance of tens of millions of tons of capacity[1] - Resource-based industries like lithium and rare earths are tightening compliance with property rights, resulting in a 10% reduction in lithium mica capacity[1] Group 4: Market Performance - From November 29 to December 6, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.28%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.88%, and the S&P 500 by 0.32%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 0.69 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.46%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.04%[2] Group 5: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest crude oil inventory stands at 44.355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - Copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,000 tons to 620,000 tons[3] - The latest week saw a decrease of 530 contracts in long positions for the U.S. dollar, while short positions increased by 229 contracts[3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 5, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.1 times and PB at 1.8 times, positioned at the historical 77% and 39% percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 PE is at 11.9 times and PB at 1.3 times, at the historical 63% and 42% percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 PE is at 14 times and PB at 1.5 times, at the historical 62% and 32% percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 PE is at 32.4 times and PB at 2.2 times, at the historical 60% and 43% percentiles [2] - The CSI 1000 PE is at 46.5 times and PB at 2.4 times, at the historical 66% and 44% percentiles [2] - The National Index 2000 PE is at 59.5 times and PB at 2.6 times, at the historical 76% and 60% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index PE is at 39.8 times and PB at 5.1 times, at the historical 32% and 57% percentiles [2] - The Sci-Tech 50 PE is at 149.6 times and PB at 5.9 times, at the historical 95% and 62% percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index/CSI 300 PE is at 2.8 times and PB at 3.5 times, at the historical 20% and 57% percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices continue to show weakness, with upstream polysilicon futures down 1.6% and spot prices stable [3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel saw increases of 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, while lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3.0% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 1.8%, while iron ore prices fell by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.4%, and glass prices showed mixed trends with a 0.7% increase in spot prices [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices decreased by 0.8% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.06% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales in November 2025 increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up by 9.1% [3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales in October 2025 grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with global semiconductor sales up by 27.2% [3] Cyclical Industries - The copper price increased by 4.4%, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.1% to $63.86 per barrel [3]

Market Overview - US stock market continued to rise on December 5, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and positive US-China trade signals, with all three major indices closing higher [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.31% to 23,578.13 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.19% to close at 6,870.40 points, marking four consecutive days of gains for the S&P 500 [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major US technology stocks mostly rose, with the US Tech Giants Index increasing by 0.20%. Facebook saw a nearly 2% rise, Google over 1%, Microsoft up 0.48%, Amazon up 0.18%, and Tesla up 0.1% [2] - Despite declines in Apple and Nvidia by 0.68% and 0.53% respectively, the overall performance of technology stocks remained strong [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.29%, with notable individual stock performances including Baidu up nearly 6%, Xiaomi over 2%, Meituan nearly 2%, and Xpeng, iQIYI, and TAL Education all up over 2% [3] - Dingdong Maicai led the gains among Chinese stocks with an increase of over 11% [3] Mergers and Acquisitions - Netflix announced its agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for approximately $72 billion [4] - SoftBank is reportedly in talks to acquire AI infrastructure investment company DigitalBridge [4] - Albemarle, the world's largest lithium producer, saw a 5% increase in stock price after UBS upgraded its rating from "neutral" to "buy" and raised the target price from $107 to $185 per share [4] Commodity Market Movements - Gold prices experienced volatility, closing at $4,197.4 per ounce, down 0.26%, after initially rising over 1% [5] - Silver prices, after reaching a historical high, ultimately closed up 2.07% [5] - In the oil market, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery rose by 0.69% to $60.08 per barrel, while Brent crude for February delivery increased by 0.49% to $63.75 per barrel, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks [5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced pressure, with Bitcoin dropping below $89,000, down 3.59% in a single day, and major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana also experiencing declines of over 3% [8] US-China Trade Relations - Positive signals emerged from US-China trade relations, with discussions between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Yellen focusing on practical cooperation and addressing mutual concerns in the economic field [9] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Market attention is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with the core PCE price index for September at 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut next week [10] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is at 87%, according to CME's FedWatch tool [10]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of tin, which fell by 0.28%. Copper and zinc both increased by over 2%, with copper rising by 2.19% to a record high of 92,910 CNY/ton, and zinc rising by 2.04% to 23,305 CNY/ton, marking a new high since April 3, 2025 [1] - Aluminum rose by 1.29%, reaching a new high of 22,395 CNY/ton after nine consecutive increases, while other metals saw gains of less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals also saw a general increase, with copper leading at a 1.93% rise to 11,705 USD/ton, continuing to set a new historical high [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:04, COMEX gold rose by 0.28% and COMEX silver increased by 2.27%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold rose by 0.36% and Shanghai silver by 0.45% [2] Macro Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a total of 35.5 billion CNY in central investments for the year, aimed at creating over 1.1 million jobs for low-income individuals [5] - The central bank conducted a 1,398 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion CNY for the day [5] Energy Market - Both domestic oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down by 0.18% and Brent down by 0.08%. However, WTI is expected to record a nearly 2% increase for the week, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

黄金方面：近期美联储降息的预期有所升温，美元维持偏弱运行。一方面是美国总统极有可能在近期宣布新一任美联储主席， 甚至暗示哈赛特就是主席人选；另一方面，日本央行极有可能在12月加息，美元弱势将限制金价跌幅。 本文出自百利好 转载请注明 原油方面：原油价格近期恐将延续震荡调整。从地缘政治方面看，俄乌谈判出现反复，甚至仍然有陷入僵局的风险；同时委内 瑞拉极有可能爆发实质性冲突，这将对油价形成支撑。 不过原油供给过剩的风险依旧存在，当前原油库存水平有所升高，即使欧佩克明年第一季度暂停减产，但其产量仍然维持在较 高水平；美国的产量也在历史新高附近；从需求端看，美国近期公布的经济数据偏弱势，恐将对需求不利，供给过剩的担忧依 旧限制油价上行空间。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情收较长下影线K线，显示下方有一定的支撑。指标上看，行情站上20日均线，后续存在进一 步走高的机会。日内关注上方61美元一线压力，下方关注58.50美元一线支撑。 铜方面：日线上，近期铜价较为强势，整体维持偏强运行。指标上看，20日均线和62日均线形成金叉，后续行情延续强势将是 大概率事件。日内关注行情回调测试下方5.23美元一线支撑情况。 日经22 ...

| 原油产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | | | | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 12月4日 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent 63.26 | | 62.67 | 0.59 | 0.94% | | | WTI 59.67 | | 58.95 | 0.72 | 1.22% | 美元/桶 | | SC 451.30 | | 449.30 | 2.00 | 0.45% | 元/神 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.04 | 6.56% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 22.00% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | -1.50 | -1.30 | -0.20 | 15.38% | 元/神 | | Brent-WTI | 3.59 | 3.72 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly. Therefore, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - **Methanol**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced due to port back - flow and trans - shipment, but the subsequent port pressure remains due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of port olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. - **Urea**: The market continues to fluctuate higher. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have improved short - term demand, and the overall supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is expected to build a bottom in a fluctuating manner, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is weakly falling. The flood in the main rubber - producing areas of Thailand is receding, and the subsequent bullish factors are decreasing. The inventory of exchange RU is low, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It temporarily follows macro - fluctuations. A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [11][13][14]. - **PVC**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a low level, and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, but the supply is high, and the demand is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. In the face of a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [14][16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still ample, and the styrene inventory in ports is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18][19]. - **Polyethylene**: OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may have bottomed out the oil price. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21][22]. - **Polypropylene**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and an expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [23][25]. - **PX**: The PX load remains high, while the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans and a low load. The PTA processing fee is under pressure, and PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [25][26]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to be stable due to the gradual repair of processing fees, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December due to large - scale accidental maintenance, and the import volume will slightly decrease, so the inventory accumulation rate at ports may slow down. However, in the medium - term, the supply is expected to be high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 3.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.73% increase, at 452.60 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.57 million barrels to 427.50 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; SPR replenished by 0.25 million barrels to 411.67 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 4.52 million barrels to 214.42 million barrels, a 2.15% increase; diesel inventories increased by 2.06 million barrels to 114.29 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 22.89 million barrels, a 0.09% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.61 million barrels to 43.95 million barrels, a 1.41% increase [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10, the price in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 15 yuan to 2113 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 1. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 96 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended for a single - side strategy [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 1688 yuan, the basis was + 2, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 57 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell weakly. The flood in Thailand's main rubber - producing areas receded, and the exchange RU inventory was low. The fundamentals had little driving force and temporarily followed macro - fluctuations. The tire factory operating rate was weak. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a 2.3 - ton increase, a 2.1% increase [11][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral view is taken, and a wait - and - see or short - term fast - in - and - fast - out strategy is recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is also suggested [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 41 yuan to 4500 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 yuan/ton (down 40), the basis was - 40 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 282 (down 9). The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.2%, a 1.4% increase; the calcium carbide method was 83.6%, a 2.3% increase; the ethylene method was 72.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, a 0.4% increase. The factory inventory was 32.3 tons (+ 0.7), and the social inventory was 104.3 tons (+ 1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price increased, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased, with the basis strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a 1.66% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.59 tons to 16.42 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, a 0.10% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, a 1.70% increase; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a 1.52% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6776 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6820 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 16 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a 0.05% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.93 tons to 45.4 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.33 tons to 4.71 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.11% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6359 yuan/ton, a 27 - yuan decrease, the spot price was 6410 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decrease, and the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a 0.8% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.75 tons to 54.63 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.29 tons to 20.05 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 6.53 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a 0.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was 417 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan narrowing [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 2 yuan to 6870 yuan, the PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 845 dollars, and the basis was - 17 yuan (- 61). The 1 - 3 spread was - 36 yuan (unchanged). The PX load in China was 88.3%, a 1.2% decrease; the Asian load was 78.7%, a 1% decrease. The Sinochem Quanzhou plant was under maintenance, and the overseas South Korea GS 550,000 - ton plant reduced its load. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. In November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 390,000 tons, a 35,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a 48,000 - ton month - on - month increase [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 6 yuan to 4724 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 10 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 32 yuan (+ 3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan (- 4). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 28 was 2.173 million tons, a 58,000 - ton decrease. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan to 171 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 194 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 4 yuan to 3826 yuan, the East China spot price decreased by 18 yuan to 3822 yuan, the basis was - 7 yuan (- 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 94 yuan (+ 10). The ethylene glycol load was 72.9%, a 0.2% decrease, of which the syngas - based load was 72.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene - based load was 73.1%, a 0.6% decrease. The downstream load was 91.6%, a 0.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 161,000 tons, and the East China departure on December 3 was 600 tons. The port inventory was 753,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [29].