Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index decreased by 0.65%, closing at 97.808, as stock market strength reduced liquidity demand for the dollar [3] - Gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3397.09 per ounce, up 1.39% [3][7] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.48%, closing at $65.68 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.31%, closing at $68.38 per barrel [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68%, closing at 24994.14 points, with a peak of 25010.90 points, the highest since February 2022 [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.72%, reaching a new high for the year, with a total trading volume of 1.7 trillion yuan [6] Group 3: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, large technology and financial stocks drove the index higher, while sectors like wind power, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant gains [5] - In the A-share market, infrastructure, cement, and hydropower sectors experienced a collective surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

Infrastructure Rating and Current State - The American Society of Civil Engineers rated U.S. infrastructure a C in March, the highest rating in nearly 30 years, with rain and flood management receiving a D [2][3] - Approximately 39% of major roads are in poor or fair condition, and nearly half of bridges are in fair condition, with about 7% having structural deficiencies [2][3] Recent Flooding and Legal Actions - Severe flooding in Texas and other states has highlighted infrastructure issues, leading to a lawsuit against the Trump administration for halting disaster prevention funding [3] - The lawsuit claims the termination of the "Resilient Infrastructure and Communities" program has negatively impacted disaster preparedness [3] Political and Funding Challenges - The U.S. faces structural challenges in infrastructure funding, with federal spending often crowding out state and private investments, leading to a reduction in overall investment effectiveness [6] - Political disputes, particularly between parties, hinder large-scale infrastructure projects, as seen with the California high-speed rail project facing funding cuts [7] Long-term Planning and International Commitments - The U.S. has made international infrastructure commitments but lacks stable long-term planning and execution, as demonstrated by the termination of the "Power Africa" initiative [8] - The G7's infrastructure initiative aims to raise $600 billion by 2027 but lacks clarity and progress reports [8] Private Sector Involvement and Challenges - The reliance on private sector investment for infrastructure projects is complicated by high costs and low interest from U.S. firms, particularly in less developed regions like West Africa [11] - The Trump administration's focus on private sector-led projects in Africa is seen as politically motivated rather than a genuine commitment to infrastructure development [11]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high, indicating a strong market performance despite some sectors like liquor and banking holding back the index [1][3] - The market is experiencing rapid sector rotation, with materials, chemicals, and coal stocks rising, reflecting a focus on infrastructure and cyclical concepts [1][3] - The current market sentiment is mixed, with many investors feeling uncertain, yet the index continues to show upward momentum without signs of peaking [3][5] Market Performance - The number of stocks rising today reached 4,000, with 129 hitting the daily limit up [1] - Trading volume has surged to 1.7 trillion, indicating a robust market environment [1] - The index is approaching the 3,600-point mark, with potential for further acceleration if sectors like liquor and banking gain momentum [3] Sector Analysis - The infrastructure sector is expected to be a key focus moving forward, especially in the context of expanding domestic demand [5] - There is an expectation of a recovery in the real estate sector, although belief in this recovery is not universally held [5] - The market is characterized by a lack of clear direction among investors, leading to a reliance on holding existing positions rather than making new investments [5] Investor Sentiment - Many investors are feeling anxious, whether they are missing out on gains or fearing a market downturn [3] - The current market environment suggests that patience is required, as the index is likely to continue its upward trajectory [3][5] - There is a call for investors to trust in the market's inherent rhythms and not succumb to pessimism [7]

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3559.79 points, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 11007.49 points, up 0.86% [1] - The market saw significant trading volume, with the Shanghai index and ChiNext reaching new highs for the year [1] - Infrastructure stocks surged, particularly in cement and building materials, while agricultural banks and cross-border payment sectors faced adjustments [1] Policy and Economic Drivers - Positive news such as the commencement of "super projects" and intensified "anti-involution" policies bolstered market confidence [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, is forthcoming [1][6] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to support structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated production capacity [6] Investment Strategy - The market is witnessing a shift in investor sentiment, with a marginal turn in capital allocation as doubts about "deflation trades" arise [1] - The traditional barbell strategy of large-cap value and small-cap growth is facing challenges, with large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext index showing significant valuation advantages [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF (588360) [2] Sector Performance - The construction materials ETF (159745) saw a strong performance, closing at a limit-up after a significant net subscription of nearly 700 million shares [4] - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost demand for steel, cement, and other construction materials [4] - The cyclical sectors, including construction materials, infrastructure, and steel, are anticipated to benefit directly from the implementation of "super projects" [9] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market conditions resemble those of 2015, where proactive policies may break the negative feedback loop between PPI and CPI, positively impacting economic expectations [7] - The valuation logic for cyclical sectors is shifting from "weak expectations - weak reality" to "strong expectations - weak reality," indicating a clearer bottoming out [9] - The technology sector in the Hong Kong market is also showing strength, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up 25.01%, outperforming many broad-based indices [3]

【导读】万亿级水电项目点燃水泥、基建行情 中国基金报记者格林 7月21日，港股高位震荡，三大指数集体收涨。其中，恒生指数涨0.68%，报24994.14点，盘中一度突破 25000点；恒生科技指数涨0.84%，报5585.5点；恒生中国企业指数涨0.6%，报9040.2点。全日大市成交 额为2630.12亿港元，较前一交易日有所放量，南向资金净买入额为70.51亿港元。 瑞银发表报告表示，国家市场监督管理总局日前召集美团、饿了么和京东等外卖平台，敦促整改激进促 销行为，期望推动餐饮行业理性竞争及健康可持续发展。该机构指出，监管行动有助提振市场短期情 绪。平台会更注重策略，例如改为发放阶梯式折扣券、提高最低消费门槛、扩大补贴范围至轻食及小吃 等，减轻餐饮业压力，并提振行业需求。 7月21日，恒生行业指数中，原材料业上涨3.4%，能源业上涨2.9%，地产建筑业上涨1.7%。热门个股方 面，美团-W上涨2.75%，美的集团上涨2.12%，京东集团-SW上涨2.11%。 万亿元级利好点燃水泥、基建板块 据新华社报道，7月19日上午，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式在西藏自治区林芝市举行。雅鲁藏布 江下游水电工程位于西藏 ...

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 5.8% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative industrial added value for the first half of 2025 was 6.4%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[3] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.0%, significantly higher than the 3.5% for the entire year of 2024[3] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted retail sales, with related products seeing over 20% growth in sales[14] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2025 grew by 2.8%, down from 3.7% previously, with a full-year growth target of around 4.2%[3] - Infrastructure investment showed stable growth, while real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 11.2% in the first half[21] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to negatively impact exports in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a shift from positive to negative growth in exports[5] - The government is likely to implement more proactive fiscal policies, including increased spending and interest rate cuts, to counteract external pressures[7] - GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 4.7% in the second half, ensuring an annual target of approximately 5.0% is met[7]

7月21日，大盘延续此前涨势。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.72%报3559.79，创年内新高，深成指涨0.86%报11007.49，创业板指涨0.87%报2296.88，北证50指数 涨2.38%报1443.89. 沪深京三市成交额17271亿元，较上日放量1339亿元。全市场超4000只个股上涨，超110只个股涨停。 板块方面，受消息面影响，西藏、水利板块全线爆发，中国能建、中国电建、保利联合、西藏天路、高争民爆等多股一字涨停。水泥、基建等方向也发力补 涨，青松建化、中交设计、上峰水泥、天山股份、狮头股份、中铁工业、成都路桥等逾30股涨停。 特高压概念午后跟上大部队涨势，安靠智电收获20%，国电南自、许继电气、中国西电相继封板，平高电气、保变电气冲击涨停。 稀土板块强势不改，盛和资源涨停，华宏科技7天6板，北方稀土再度近150亿大成交下涨超6%。国资央企与西藏自治区签署75个产业项目投资协议，总投资 额达3175亿元，重点投向绿色矿产等西藏急需领域。工信部表示将实施有色金属等行业稳增长工作方案，完善支持新型工业化的金融政策。 宇树机器人开启上市辅导，产业链进一步加速，长盛轴承触及20cm，景兴纸业、金发科技、卧 ...

Core Insights - The China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) is the world's first national-level exhibition focused on supply chains, showcasing various industries and emphasizing the core value of "linking the world and co-creating the future" [1] Group 1: Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The Chain Expo serves as a high-end platform for global enterprises to collaborate, aiming to create a more open, efficient, and sustainable supply chain ecosystem [2] - YTO Express's chairman highlighted the Expo's role in enhancing connectivity among upstream and downstream enterprises, promoting a "win-win chain" [2] - Sinopec showcased its commitment to clean energy supply chains, focusing on natural gas, hydrogen, and other sustainable energy sources, and signed cooperation agreements with nearly 50 companies in the hydrogen sector [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Numerous companies presented cutting-edge technologies and smart solutions at the Expo, demonstrating innovation in the supply chain sector [3] - Ninebot showcased 10 models of short-distance transportation and service robots, emphasizing its full industry chain layout in smart mobility [3] - Inner Mongolia Jishuo Technology introduced a leading "rumen capsule" technology for real-time livestock health monitoring, breaking foreign monopolies and enhancing domestic livestock farming [3] Group 3: Infrastructure and Equipment - China Communications Construction Group displayed major infrastructure projects, including Asia's largest self-propelled dredging vessel, enhancing global industrial chain collaboration [4] Group 4: Cross-Industry Synergy - CITIC Group presented its comprehensive service capabilities across various sectors, aiming to be a "bridge linking the world" [5] - China Resources Group showcased its strategic layout in health, green agriculture, and clean energy, with over 270,000 supply chain enterprises participating in its procurement activities [5] Group 5: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - Tsingtao Brewery emphasized the importance of global supply chain connectivity, leveraging smart cold chain logistics for product freshness [6] - APP (Asia Pulp & Paper) highlighted its role in cross-border industrial chains and ecological innovation, aiming to deepen international cooperation in the supply chain [6] Group 6: Future Outlook - The Chain Expo has evolved into a significant platform for global industrial chain cooperation, promoting a shift from product competition to collaborative ecosystem building [7] - Participating companies believe the Expo enhances technological matchmaking and market expansion, contributing to the resilience and sustainability of global supply chains [7]

Group 1: Key Insights on Macro Economy - The "urban renewal" is highlighted as a significant focus for future urban work, with infrastructure and real estate investment expected to be boosted [5][6] - The central urban work conference emphasized transitioning urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality and efficiency [5][6] - The meeting underscored the importance of "innovation" as a key theme, aiming to stimulate high-tech industry investment through urban renewal initiatives [7] Group 2: Insights on Intelligent Driving Industry - Intelligent driving is positioned as a leading application of physical AI, with the potential to drive investment opportunities across the industry chain [8][10] - The report identifies a shift in competitive focus among domestic automakers from merely increasing the number of operational cities to achieving nationwide functionality of intelligent driving features [9][10] - The technological paradigm shift towards data-driven and knowledge-driven approaches is enhancing the generalization performance of intelligent driving systems, paving the way for faster deployment of high-level intelligent driving [9] Group 3: Insights on Defense and Aerospace Industry - The company, 菲利华, is positioning its quartz fiber electronic cloth as a core material for M9 PCBs in the computing era, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [12][13] - The semiconductor and optical materials sectors are expected to gain from the increasing demand for high-purity, high-temperature resistant quartz products, with the global semiconductor quartz product market projected to grow from $3.226 billion in 2024 to $7.321 billion by 2031 [13] - 菲利华 is actively expanding its production capacity in the quartz fiber electronic cloth market, aiming to capture early advantages in this emerging sector [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].