1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies, and "Qiushi" emphasized that real - estate policies should not adopt a piecemeal approach. The continuous introduction of real - estate policies further supports demand, and the pace of subsequent policy introduction may accelerate. Although the new construction of the real - estate chain still faces multiple pressures, the industry bottom is approaching as the base gradually decreases. Sales data (new + second - hand houses) remains the leading indicator for driving the sector's valuation [3][7]. - Anti - involution is the main line for cyclical products. In the new field, attention should be paid to electronic cloth, clean rooms, and commercial aerospace. For the cement and glass industries, the effective reduction of supply is the key point to observe in the next stage. The glass fiber sector has relatively good profitability, and there is a possibility of a staged price increase. In the new field, the high - growth of the AI supply chain in 26H1 is the most certain direction, and the semiconductor/storage capital expenditure at home and abroad drives the performance and valuation of the clean - room sector. The theme investment in commercial aerospace is constantly catalyzed [4][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Anti - involution is the Main Line for Cyclical Products, and Attention is Paid to Electronic Cloth, Clean Rooms, and Commercial Aerospace in the New Field - **Real - estate Policy**: On December 24, 2025, Beijing optimized real - estate policies, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing households to purchase houses, supporting the housing needs of multi - child families, optimizing personal housing credit policies, and adjusting the project approval method for real - estate development. On January 1, 2026, "Qiushi" proposed that policies should be sufficient at one time to avoid a game between the market and policies [3][7]. - **Cyclical Products**: For the cement and glass industries, with demand declining, the effective reduction of supply is crucial. Currently, the average profitability of the cement and float glass industries has fallen below the break - even line. The cold - repair reduction of glass production capacity in Q1 will determine the price recovery space of float glass from March to April. The glass fiber sector has relatively good profitability, with stable demand growth and potential for staged price increases [4][8]. - **New Fields**: The high - growth of the AI supply chain in 26H1 is the most certain direction. Special electronic cloth has high demand elasticity and limited short - term supply, so its price is elastic. The increasing semiconductor/storage capital expenditure at home and abroad drives the performance and valuation of the clean - room sector. The theme investment in commercial aerospace is constantly catalyzed [4][8]. 3.2 Profit Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies The report provides the profit forecast, valuation, and investment ratings of 28 companies from 2024 to 2027, including Punaite, China Jushi, and Conch Cement. Most of the investment ratings are "Buy" or "Increase", and all ratings remain unchanged [10]. 3.3 Weekly Market Review - **Industry Index**: The construction index, building materials index, etc. had different changes. The construction index decreased by 1.4%, and the building materials index decreased by 0.6% [13]. - **Sub - sectors of Construction**: The building decoration II index increased by 9.33%, and the garden engineering index increased by 1.92%, while some sub - sectors had negative growth [15]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs**: The report provides the weekly, monthly, and annual - to - date price changes of 70 infrastructure public REITs. The average weekly decline was 0.47%, and the average annual - to - date increase was 9.29% [23][24][25]. 3.4 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real - estate Data**: It includes the cumulative year - on - year changes in real - estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas, land transaction data, real - estate transaction data, social financing data, and infrastructure investment growth rates [28][37][47]. - **New Contracts of Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises**: The report shows the quarterly new contract amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q3 [73]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It shows the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new and replacement special bonds from 2022 to 2025 [75][77]. 3.5 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Building Materials Data**: It includes the price trends, cost - profit differences, inventory, and other data of cement, float glass, photovoltaic glass, glass fiber, carbon fiber, magnesium sand, alumina, and other building materials [83][90][98]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, HDPE, etc. [137][138]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes the price trends of acrylic acid, titanium dioxide, and the rental rate of high - altitude machines, asphalt average start - up rate, etc. [144][147].

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5362.85 | | 52 周最高 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《地产政策托底需求，关注反内卷落地 情况》 - 2025.12.29 建材行业报告 （2025.12.27-2026.01.04） 地产政策持续落地，关注建材龙头估值修复机遇 发布时间：2026-01-05 投资要点 上周财政部、国家税务总局于 2025 年 12 月 30 日联合发布《关 于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人销售住房的增值税征 收细则，个人将购买不足 2 年的住房对外销售的，按照 3%的征收率全 额缴纳增值税，个人将购买 2 年以上（含 2 年）的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税。此次政策能够有效减轻房东经济压力，也使得房屋出售 的成本快速下降、促进市场流通。 地产政策持续释放，一方面托底需求，另一方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share real estate sector is experiencing a significant short-term rally, driven by strong market sentiment and supportive policies, leading to increased trading activity and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate sector has shown notable short-term gains, with leading stocks like New China Group hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market leadership [1]. - Other key stocks such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, and Xinda Real Estate also saw synchronized gains, highlighting a pronounced profit effect across the sector [1]. - Trading volumes for individual stocks in the sector have generally increased compared to the previous trading day, reflecting a positive market response to favorable policies [1]. Group 2: Policy Support - Multiple authoritative policies have been implemented since January, injecting strong momentum into the real estate industry [1]. - A new tax policy on personal home sales will reduce transaction costs for second-hand homes, enhancing market liquidity and indirectly benefiting the new home market [1]. - An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, advocating for comprehensive policy measures to meet diverse housing needs and promote market stability [2]. Group 3: Industry Benefits - The recovery of the real estate sector is expected to benefit various upstream and downstream industries [3]. - The home furnishing and decoration industry will see increased demand due to heightened real estate transaction activity, particularly in renovation and customization segments [3]. - The building materials industry will benefit from increased demand for materials like cement and glass, driven by project initiation and construction activities [3]. - The property management sector will expand as new home deliveries and increased occupancy rates from second-hand transactions create more opportunities for service revenue growth [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth logic of companies as they scale from millions to billions and beyond, emphasizing the importance of strategic development at each stage of growth [1][3][25]. Group 1: Growth Stages - Companies can achieve different levels of revenue growth: from millions to billions, and then to trillions, by following a structured growth strategy [1][3]. - The growth process is described as a logical progression, where companies must navigate through various stages: individual products, product lines, categories, platforms, and ecosystems [1][3][25]. Group 2: Case Studies - Weixing Kele successfully transitioned from zero to one hundred million by focusing on product innovation and channel penetration, particularly in the waterproof coating market [4][9]. - Shanyuan Technology leveraged a unique product, the "mining lamp black box," to achieve significant revenue growth by addressing safety concerns in mining operations [10][11]. - Mars Man, a latecomer in the integrated stove industry, rapidly grew its revenue by expanding product categories and enhancing channel strategies [13]. - Supor transitioned from a small cookware company to a leading brand by effectively utilizing distribution channels and expanding its product range [16][17]. - Anta transformed its business model by focusing on operational efficiency and strategic store management, leading to substantial revenue growth [19][20]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of channel development as a critical factor for achieving initial revenue milestones [9][12]. - Companies must focus on product and brand positioning while ensuring that operational strategies are aligned with market needs [6][12]. - The transition from product-level growth to category-level growth requires a clear understanding of how to structure product lines effectively [15][18]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - Companies like COFCO and China State Construction have successfully implemented ecosystem strategies to achieve trillion-level revenues by integrating various business units and enhancing brand visibility [25][26]. - The article highlights the necessity of creating a unified brand strategy that aligns with the overall business objectives to facilitate sustainable growth [25][26].

Core Insights - The new housing policy in Hainan, effective from January 1, 2026, allows for affordable housing at 60% of the market price, with the ability to sell after five years and full ownership after fifteen years, significantly benefiting homebuyers and attracting capital investment [1][3] Group 1: Policy Highlights - The affordable housing price is set at no more than 60% of the previous year's average market price in the respective city or county, with prices in Sanya as low as 12,800 yuan per square meter, over 50% cheaper than market rates [3] - Homebuyers can apply to sell their property after five years or purchase government equity, providing flexibility and preventing asset lock-in [3] - The policy covers a wide range of applicants, including local residents, introduced talent, and non-residents with two years of residence and social security contributions [3] - The focus is on practical housing types, primarily under 100 square meters, with larger units available for families with multiple children, and increased public housing loan limits [3] - By the end of 2025, Hainan has initiated over 110,000 affordable housing units, with more than 50,000 allocated and an additional 60,000 in inventory or under construction, meeting the demand for first-time buyers [3] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The policy mandates that infrastructure development must accompany affordable housing projects, with plans to build 250,000 units during the 14th Five-Year Plan, ensuring that transportation and public services are developed in tandem [4] - Transportation upgrades include enhancing rural roads and urban networks, with 100 kilometers of new village roads and improvements to irrigation facilities [4] - Each affordable housing area will include essential services such as schools, clinics, and community centers, aiming for a 90% compliance rate for township health clinics [4] - Urban renewal efforts will also be implemented, improving old neighborhoods and revitalizing existing land, as seen in Haikou's integration of affordable housing with urban renewal [4] Group 3: Consumer Market Expansion - The affordable housing initiative is expected to stimulate a significant increase in consumer spending, with estimates suggesting that furnishing a 100 square meter home could cost between 100,000 to 150,000 yuan, contributing to a multi-trillion yuan market [4] - Major consumer goods such as home renovations, appliances, and furniture are anticipated to see increased demand, with Hainan's public housing loans reaching 8.688 billion yuan in 2025, driving home improvement projects [4] - The influx of residents in affordable housing areas will create demand for community businesses, including supermarkets and restaurants, accelerating the development of local commercial ecosystems [4] - Service sectors such as education, healthcare, and tourism are expected to experience growth due to increased population, enhancing Hainan's wellness and tourism industries [5] Group 4: Agricultural Opportunities - The population growth from affordable housing is projected to open new avenues for Hainan's agriculture, enhancing both local supply and external sales [5] - To support the increased population, Hainan plans to maintain 4.07 million acres of grain planting and establish 150,000 acres of vegetable bases, promoting local food security [5] - The initiative includes branding efforts for Hainan's agricultural products, with plans to develop 35 new agricultural brands and improve logistics for nationwide distribution [5] - Technological advancements in agriculture will be supported through platforms like "Southern Breeding Silicon Valley," focusing on high-quality crop breeding and efficiency improvements [5] Group 5: Technological Integration - The construction of affordable housing will emphasize smart building practices, with a target of 80% of new constructions being prefabricated by 2025, promoting green building technologies [6] - Digital services will be enhanced, including zero-material approvals for public housing loans and rapid processing for rental withdrawals, increasing the demand for digital governance and smart community solutions [6] - Collaboration with technology firms will drive the integration of smart security, green energy, and intelligent property management into affordable housing projects, fostering growth in AI and IoT sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent revision and release of the "Management Measures for Green Product Certification and Labeling" by the State Administration for Market Regulation, marking a significant shift towards comprehensive regulation of green product certification in China [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new measures represent the first systematic and unified standard for green product certification activities in China [1] - The approach focuses on "unified product catalog, unified evaluation standards, unified certification rules, and unified product labeling" to ensure comprehensive oversight of the entire green product certification process [1] Group 2: Implementation Details - The management measures clarify the classification and grading management of the certification system, defining the applicable scenarios for both full and partial certifications [1] - Specific regulations regarding certification implementation, certificate management, labeling usage, and supervisory responsibilities have been detailed, providing clear guidance for all parties involved [1] Group 3: Current Statistics - As of now, the green product certification catalog includes 122 types of products closely related to consumers, such as electronics, furniture, building materials, express packaging, and textiles [1] - Nearly 40,000 effective certification certificates have been issued, involving over 8,000 certified enterprises [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market and investment strategies for 2026, focusing on various asset classes and sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Style and Sentiment** - In January 2026, the growth value dimension maintains a preference for value style but slightly leans towards growth style. Investor sentiment favors value style, while market momentum shows a slight advantage for growth style [3][4][5] 2. **Asset Allocation** - The outlook for domestic stock assets is relatively positive, with a neutral stance on commodities and a cautious approach towards bonds. The macroeconomic indicators suggest a cautious view on stocks and commodities, while being neutral on bonds [3][5][8] 3. **Industry Rotation Model** - The current state is characterized by rapid rotation, with December's model showing a 0.7% underperformance against the benchmark. Recommended sectors for January 2026 include banking, building materials, computers, comprehensive finance, and coal [3][5] 4. **Quantitative Strategy Performance** - The aggressive growth strategy, particularly the growth trend resonance stock selection strategy, achieved a 46.4% annual return, outperforming by 13 percentage points. The small-cap mining strategy yielded the highest returns at 86% [6][9] 5. **Market Conditions and Strategy Implications** - The current market is experiencing high differentiation, which typically benefits value and dividend strategies. January is noted for the dense disclosure of annual reports, presenting potential investment opportunities if earnings forecasts exceed expectations [9] 6. **Machine Learning and Derivative Models** - The quantitative strategy team has developed various models based on reinforcement learning and deep learning, achieving stable performance. The option timing model has a high success rate, with the sentiment indicator yielding a cumulative return of 37.47% since its launch [10] 7. **Technical Analysis and Market Signals** - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with four bearish and one bullish signal among major indices, suggesting potential resistance in the current market [8] 8. **Sector Recommendations** - The recommended sectors for January 2026 include banking, building materials, computers, comprehensive finance, and coal, with a shift away from previously favored sectors like non-ferrous metals [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The quantitative strategy team is actively engaging clients with subscription services for their sentiment indicators, indicating a focus on client engagement and market responsiveness [10]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026年,周期怎么看 20260104 摘要 Q&A 目前建筑建材行业的整体情况如何?有哪些值得关注的投资机会? 从目前跟踪的企业经营情况来看,建筑建材行业订单总体保持相对充分,但资金 仍是制约企业产值释放的核心因素。尽管国家启动了一些重大项目,但相对于庞 大的基础建设存量,这些投资难以带来显著成长性。因此,对于传统基建领域, 我们推荐高股息、低估值序列的公司,如中国建筑、四川路桥、隧道股份和中材 国际等。这些公司核心竞争力较强,经营稳定,分红股息率较高。 此外,一些 争 狗 - 传统基建领域推荐高股息、低估值公司,如中国建筑、四川路桥等,因其 . 核心竞争力强、经营稳定。同时,关注积极转型新科技、新产业的中小企 业,如正东设计、华阳国际等,可能迎来突破。 消费建材领域,头部公司市占率提升,经营趋稳健,建议左侧布局已证明 ● 核心竞争力的公司,如东方雨虹、兔宝宝等。关注 AI 产业链兴起需求增 加的高端产品公司,如中国巨石、中材科技。 2025 年元旦假期跨区域人流增长,海南离岛免税销售额同比大增 129%, . 客单价增长 43%。预计 2025年 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the construction materials industry, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing market challenges [2][3] - Key companies like China Jushi and China National Materials have initiated stock incentive plans, indicating confidence in long-term growth [6][21] Group 1: Stock Incentives and Market Management - China Jushi announced a stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant up to 34.52 million shares (approximately 0.86% of total shares), with performance targets set for net profit growth [6][17] - China National Materials also introduced a stock option plan, aiming to grant 15.4 million options (about 0.92% of total shares), with ambitious profit growth targets [6][18] - An article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for improved management of real estate market expectations, suggesting that timely policy measures could stabilize the market [22][23] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals Tracking - The construction materials sector is experiencing a downturn, with leading companies showing early signs of revenue and profit recovery [34] - In the cement sector, national prices fell by 0.3% week-on-week, with an average price of 353 RMB/ton as of January 2, 2026 [6][35] - The glass market is mixed, with float glass prices showing slight declines, while photovoltaic glass remains stable [6][39] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The report highlights that the construction materials industry is at a historical valuation low, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [6][34] - Key companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China Jushi are noted for their strong market positions and potential for profit recovery [6][35][36] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 [7]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 31, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.6x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 81st and 42nd historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.8x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 63rd and 43rd percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14.2x and a PB of 1.5x, at the 65th and 39th percentiles [2] - The CSI 500 Index shows a PE of 33.8x and a PB of 2.3x, at the 64th and 51st percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.8x and a PB of 5.5x, at the 35th and 63rd percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 161.1x and a PB of 6.1x, at the 97th and 66th percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, prices for silicon wafers increased by 10.8%, while battery cell prices rose by 11.8% [2] - The price of lithium carbonate increased by 0.9%, and lithium hydroxide rose by 8.4% [2] Technology TMT - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 2.2%, and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index rose by 5.1% [3] - The DXI Index (DRAM output value) increased by 7.2%, driven by strong demand for high-performance products related to AI [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.1%, while the price of cement decreased by 0.3% [3] - The national cement price index showed a decline of 0.3% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 10.4%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 1.4% [3] - The price of Moutai liquor decreased by 3.5% to 1505 yuan [3] Cycle - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 2.4%, closing at $60.8 per barrel [3] - The price of LME copper increased by 2.7%, while LME aluminum rose by 2.2% [3]