Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that energy is the main battlefield for green transformation and "dual carbon" efforts, advocating for the expansion of green electricity applications and ensuring that new electricity demand is primarily met by renewable energy sources [1][2] - The central economic work conference has identified "adhering to 'dual carbon' leadership and promoting comprehensive green transformation" as a key task for economic work in the coming year [1] - Key subjects and focus industries include coal and oil, which are the main energy consumers and carbon emitters, with a call for deep energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in these sectors [1] Group 2 - The meeting has outlined plans for the development of a national energy strategy, which aims to guide society in increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply and accelerating the construction of clean energy bases [2] - Continuous efforts will be made to combat pollution and optimize ecosystems, including comprehensive solid waste management and the implementation of a system for the harmless management of solid waste [2] - The initiative includes significant projects for the protection and restoration of important ecosystems, with a focus on major lakes and the integration of natural protected areas into a national park system [2]

截至11月底，山东省属企业资产总额达5.7万亿元；1—11月份，实现营业收入2.3万亿元、利润总额868.6亿元，各项主要经营指标稳居全国前列。 内容来源 | 国务院国资委网站 今年以来，山东省属国资国企系统坚定扛牢"走在前、挑大梁"使命担当，主动作为、奋力攻坚，推动各项工作取得新成效。截至11月底，山东省属企业资 产总额达5.7万亿元；1—11月份，实现营业收入2.3万亿元、利润总额868.6亿元，各项主要经营指标稳居全国前列。 聚焦发展提质，高质量稳增长持续推进。制定推动山东省属企业稳增长的10条措施，分类、分企业确定利润增长目标。强化重大项目投资牵引，加快推进 济枣高铁、渤中海上风电G场工程、永锋临港钢焦一体化等重大项目，1—11月份，山东省属企业完成固定资产投资1650亿元、同比增长20.7%。制定省属 控股上市公司高质量发展专项行动方案，推动企业加强市值管理，年内新增控股上市公司3家，省属控股上市公司总数提升至53户，上市公司总市值超1.2 万亿元，其中3户市值超千亿。 聚焦布局提档，国有资本功能持续放大。聚焦发展壮大新质生产力，出台推动省属企业加快发展战新产业和未来产业的若干政策，实施省属企业育新 ...

Consumption - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value of 2.9%[12] - Sales of "two new" products and real estate-related consumption continued to decline, with automotive consumption down 8.3% and home appliances down 19.4% year-on-year[12] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a gradual release of service consumption potential[14] Investment - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, marking three consecutive months of negative growth[23] - Real estate development investment fell by 31.4% year-on-year in November, a significant increase in the decline compared to the previous month's 23.2%[23] - Equipment purchase investment showed a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth[24] Trade - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, rebounding from a previous decline of 1.1%[32] - Exports to the EU saw a significant recovery with a growth rate of 14.8%, while exports to the US decreased by 28.6%[32] - Imports rose slightly by 1.9% year-on-year, with notable increases in the import of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment[34]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's technological innovation continues to thrive, with significant advancements in various fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, life sciences, and clean energy, contributing to high-quality development and improved living standards [1] Group 1: Fundamental Research - China has achieved new heights in fundamental scientific research, with multiple results breaking international records and filling gaps in various fields [2] - The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) has successfully measured two key parameters of neutrino oscillation with a precision 1.5 to 1.8 times better than previous international standards [2] - A team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has created five types of two-dimensional metals with single-atom thickness, marking a significant breakthrough in material science [3] - As of August 2025, China leads the world with 2,342 hot papers, accounting for 53.2% of the global total, and ranks second in highly cited papers [3] Group 2: Cutting-edge Technologies - In quantum computing, the "Zuchongzhi 3" prototype has been developed, featuring 105 readable qubits and achieving speeds surpassing the fastest supercomputers [4] - The AI model DeepSeek-R1 has been released, achieving performance comparable to top global models with fewer computational resources, marking a shift in AI development strategies [4] - The number of AI companies in China has exceeded 5,300, representing 15% of the global total, establishing a comprehensive industrial system [4] Group 3: Robotics and Aerospace - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly emerging, with significant public demonstrations showcasing advancements in embodied intelligence [5][6] - The Tianwen-2 probe has been successfully launched, marking China's first asteroid sampling and comet flyby mission, filling a technological gap in small celestial body exploration [6] - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment has achieved a world record of 1 million degrees Celsius for 1,066 seconds, validating the feasibility of steady-state operation for fusion reactors [6] Group 4: Life Sciences and Resource Utilization - In life sciences, breakthroughs in pest control and cancer treatment have been made, promoting green and precise pest management and developing new strategies for nasopharyngeal cancer immunotherapy [8] - The South-to-North Water Diversion Project has delivered over 80 billion cubic meters of water, benefiting 185 million people and addressing groundwater over-extraction issues [9] - China's high-speed rail technology has set new records, with the CR450 train achieving a single-column speed of 453 km/h, leading the world in rail technology [9] Group 5: Global Collaboration - China is leading global renewable energy development, with solar and wind power surpassing fossil fuels in new electricity generation [10] - Major scientific projects like the Jiangmen Neutrino Experiment are open to global collaboration, attracting top scientists to tackle significant scientific challenges [10] - China is sharing technological advancements in public health and agriculture, contributing to global governance improvements [11]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·计算机 计算机行业深度报告 关注地方国企资本运作——国企改革和地方 增收的交汇点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 王紫敬 执业证书：S0600521080005 021-60199781 wangzj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/12/30 2025/4/30 2025/8/29 2025/12/28 计算机 沪深300 相关研究 《梳理 SpaceX 的 A 股供应商》 2025-12-29 《商业航天 还有哪 些事件 值得期 待？》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 土地财政规模承压，盘活存量资产。地方财政收入来源一共"四本账"， 其中国有土地使用权出让收入一直是地方财政收入的重要来源，而 2022 年以来，土地财政收入规模承压，因此 2022 年开始，国家和地方都陆 续出台了各项政策和措施提升土地使用权出让以外的财政收入，路径 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the continuous price differentiation in the upstream industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. Upstream prices show a trend of divergence, with some rising and some falling, while the mid - stream and downstream industries have their own development characteristics such as low - level operation in some mid - stream industries and recovery in some downstream industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, including deepening fair competition governance, breaking administrative monopolies, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, promoting the development quality of business entities, and strengthening the regular supervision of the platform economy [1] - **Service Industry**: The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented from January 1, 2026, with 935 items of goods subject to import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates, and new national sub - items added. Also, regulations on the deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses for certain industries have been announced [2] Industry Overview - **Upstream**: In the chemical industry, PTA prices are rising; in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper prices are rising; in the energy industry, LNG prices are falling [3] - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product start - up rates are at a low level, power plant coal consumption is increasing, and asphalt start - up is in the off - season [4] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up, and the number of domestic flights is increasing [4] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On December 29, the spot prices of corn, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork increased year - on - year, while the spot price of eggs decreased [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot price of线材 increased year - on - year, while the spot prices of rebar and iron ore decreased slightly [37] - **Non - metals**: On December 29, the spot price of natural rubber increased year - on - year, while the spot price of glass and the China Plastic City price index decreased [37] - **Energy**: On December 29, the spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased slightly year - on - year, while the spot price of liquefied natural gas and coal price decreased [37] - **Chemical Industry**: On December 29, the spot price of PTA increased year - on - year, while the spot price of polyethylene decreased [37] - **Real Estate**: On December 29, the cement price index and the building materials composite index decreased slightly year - on - year, and the concrete price index remained unchanged [37]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals market has become the focal point of the commodities sector, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and geopolitical risk, with gold prices reaching an all-time high [2] - Silver's performance has been particularly remarkable, with a monthly increase marking the highest since 1979 and a weekly rise of 16.08% [2] - UBS warns that the current price surge is largely driven by sentiment and technical momentum rather than solid industry fundamentals, indicating potential risks of price corrections as market sentiment normalizes [2] Group 2: Energy and Industrial Metals - The energy market shows mixed performance, with crude oil prices fluctuating around $58 per barrel, supported by U.S. actions against Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but limited by ample global supply [3] - UBS notes that the U.S. government prefers to manage inflation through low oil prices, establishing an "invisible floor" for oil prices around $50 [3] - Industrial metals maintain high prices due to optimistic market sentiment regarding Chinese economic support policies and strong demand for metals like copper and aluminum in green energy infrastructure [3] Group 3: Agriculture and Livestock - The agricultural market faces challenges from South American weather and geopolitical risks, with corn and soybean prices initially boosted by Chinese demand but later pressured by farmer sell-offs [4] - A significant warning is that soybean export volumes have decreased by nearly one-third year-on-year, which may impact planting decisions for 2026 [4] - In contrast, corn exports have surged by 30% year-on-year, becoming a highlight in the grain market, while the livestock sector remains robust for cattle but faces downward pressure in the pork market due to increased supply [4] Group 4: Market Outlook for 2026 - As the new year approaches, market liquidity is expected to remain low, amplifying the impact of any sudden news on prices [5] - The current commodities market is at a critical juncture, with precious metals experiencing strong momentum but facing valuation challenges, while energy and agricultural markets seek new pricing logic amid policy interventions and climate variability [5] - For 2026, a return to fundamentals may replace the current sentiment-driven trading, becoming the main theme in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies focusing on promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] Export Performance - China's export performance in 2025 was better than expected, with nominal exports increasing by 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB in the first 11 months. After adjusting for price factors, actual export growth was 7.9% in USD and 9.0% in RMB [4][5] - The strong external demand contributed significantly to China's economic growth, with net exports boosting GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 29.0% of the cumulative GDP growth [4] - The expected growth rate for China's exports in 2026 is projected at 3.4% in USD terms, supported by stable US-China tariffs and China's cost advantages [9][28][30] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly in 2026, from around 1% growth in 2025 to approximately 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [31][46] - The decline in manufacturing investment in 2025 was attributed to "strong supply and weak demand" and trade friction, but the outlook for 2026 suggests a recovery due to improved export expectations and continued policy support [36][46] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken in 2026, with a projected decline in commodity housing sales area of about 5% and a narrowing of the decline in real estate investment to around -11% [55][58] - The real estate sector's recovery will depend on improved consumer confidence and the successful resolution of credit risks among property developers [56][57] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [64] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a funding scale at least equal to the 300 billion RMB allocated in 2025 [66][68] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 8% growth in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [64]

Core Insights - In 2025, China has made significant advancements in various fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, life sciences, and clean energy, contributing to high-quality development and improving the quality of life for its citizens [4][9]. Group 1: Basic Research Achievements - China has achieved new heights in basic scientific research, with multiple results breaking international records and filling gaps in various fields [5]. - As of August 2025, China produced 2,342 hot papers, accounting for 53.2% of the global total, maintaining the top position worldwide [8]. Group 2: Breakthroughs in Frontier Technologies - In quantum computing, the "Zuchongzhi 3" superconducting quantum computing prototype was released, outperforming the fastest supercomputers in processing quantum random circuit sampling [9]. - The AI model DeepSeek-R1 was launched, achieving performance comparable to top global models with fewer computational resources, marking a shift in AI development strategies [9]. Group 3: Innovations in Robotics and Aerospace - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly emerging, with significant achievements showcased during major public events, highlighting China's capabilities in this sector [10]. - The Tianwen-2 probe was successfully launched, marking China's first asteroid sampling and comet flyby mission, filling a technological gap in small celestial body exploration [10]. Group 4: Energy and Communication Advances - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment achieved a world record of 1 million degrees Celsius for 1,066 seconds, validating the feasibility of controlled nuclear fusion energy [11]. - A new adaptive full-bandwidth high-speed communication chip was developed, capable of data transmission rates exceeding 120 Gbps, laying the hardware foundation for 6G technology [12]. Group 5: Enhancements in Quality of Life - In life sciences, breakthroughs in pest control and cancer treatment strategies have been developed, promoting green and precise pest management and improving cancer treatment protocols [13]. - Major engineering projects like the South-to-North Water Diversion have benefited millions, addressing water scarcity issues in northern China [14]. Group 6: Global Collaboration and Contributions - China has led global renewable energy growth, with solar and wind power surpassing fossil fuels in new electricity generation, contributing to climate change mitigation efforts [15]. - The DeepSeek model has been made available globally, demonstrating China's commitment to sharing technological advancements and solutions for public health and agricultural safety [15].