1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump mentioned that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, and the US would talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran was progressing "very smoothly", but the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities [8][17][27][28][30][34]. - The Fed's Powell mentioned on the first day of the congressional hearing that he did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut, which might lead to an earlier expectation of a domestic interest - rate cut [9]. - For the stock index futures, the bullish pattern continues. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong to support the index, and then may rise and fall after full fermentation. In the trend, a bullish view is maintained, and the more certain way for long - position investors is to reverse and advance layout when there are disturbances such as geopolitical factors [9][10]. - The over - capacity of offset printing paper is intensifying, and it will be in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year. The price of double - offset paper is still bottom - seeking, and if Chenming restarts production, the paper price pressure may increase. There may be seasonal restocking and consumption improvement from September to November. Overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain. The strategy is to short the processing profit after the futures are listed (long pulp, short double - offset paper) [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by the cease - fire of geopolitical conflicts, and silver continues to rush higher. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][20]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1 [13][22][24]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level shock. Alumina rebounds slightly, and aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][25][27]. - Zinc: It is in range adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][28]. - Lead: It runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][30]. - Tin: It has a tight - reality and weak - expectation situation, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][32][35]. - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel - ore end is loose, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. Stainless steel has a marginal weakening in supply and demand, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][37][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The contradiction of warehouse receipts still exists, and the oscillating trend continues, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and it is in a short - term shock. Polysilicon continues with the idea of short - allocation on rallies. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [13][44][46]. - Iron Ore: The expectation fluctuates, and it oscillates in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [13][49][51]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 1 [13][52][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment is released, and they oscillate strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][55][57]. - Steam Coal: The demand still needs to be released, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][59][62]. - Others: Various products such as rubber, asphalt, and plastics have different trends such as oscillating strongly, weakly oscillating, and short - term oscillating [13]. 3.2 Market News and Data - **Precious Metals**: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant macro and industry news [17]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as the start of a new copper smelter and production cuts by a Japanese company [22]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy: A large amount of data on prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences are provided, along with comprehensive news [25]. - Zinc: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of zinc futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [28]. - Lead: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [30]. - Tin: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of tin futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel are provided, along with macro and industry news such as production resumptions and suspensions in the nickel industry [37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate Lithium: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, warehouse receipts, and relevant industrial chain data of carbonate lithium are provided, along with macro and industry news [41]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with macro and industry news [44]. - Iron Ore: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as steel inventory changes and production data [49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided, along with price and position - holding information [55]. - Steam Coal: The trading situation, prices, and position - holding information of steam coal are provided, along with domestic and foreign price quotes [60].

总部位于英国伦敦的能源研究所（Energy Institute）最新发布的年度世界能源统计报告显示，去年全球 能源行业的二氧化碳排放量连续第四年创下历史新高。报告显示，去年是有记录以来最热的一年，全球 气温首次比工业化前时代高出1.5摄氏度，即使可再生能源达到历史新高，化石燃料的使用量仍持续上 升。 (央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor relations management is essential for listed companies to convey core value and stabilize market expectations, serving as a cornerstone for the stable operation of capital markets [2] Group 1: Performance and Strength - The 150 awarded companies have a total market capitalization of 11.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.70% of all A-shares, with over 30 companies having a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan [3] - In Q1 2025, these companies achieved a total revenue of 2.77 trillion yuan and a net profit of 227.89 billion yuan, representing 16.42% and 15.27% of all A-shares respectively [3] - The average revenue per company is 1.847 billion yuan, and the average profit is 151.9 million yuan, both nearly six times the average of all A-shares [3] Group 2: Profitability - The median return on equity (ROE) for these companies in Q1 is 3%, which is about 2 percentage points higher than the overall A-share market [4] - Companies like Kweichow Moutai and Dongpeng Beverage have maintained ROE above 30% for several years, while Wuliangye has consistently been above 20% [4] Group 3: Growth Potential - Two-thirds of the 150 companies reported year-on-year net profit growth in Q1, with the chemical, energy, and mining sectors showing significant revenue increases [5] - Companies such as Jinshi Resources and Shandong Gold saw revenue growth exceeding 50%, driven by the rise of AI-related companies like Guangxun Technology and Haiguang Information [5] Group 4: Market Value Management - In 2024, the awarded companies announced a total dividend of 392.81 billion yuan, accounting for 16.80% of all A-share dividends, with an average dividend of 2.62 billion yuan per company [7] - 96 of the awarded companies engaged in stock buybacks totaling 17.66 billion yuan, with nearly one-third of these companies repurchasing over 100 million yuan in stock [8] - The average stock price increase for these companies in 2024 was 19.30%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by nearly 7 percentage points [8] Group 5: Information Disclosure and Investor Engagement - 118 of the 150 companies received an "A" rating for information disclosure, representing 78.70% of the total, with 78 companies maintaining this rating for three consecutive years [9] - The average response rate to investor inquiries among these companies is 99.10%, with nearly 80% achieving a 100% response rate [10] - On average, each company received 4.7 institutional research visits, significantly higher than the A-share average of 2.5 visits [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of private investment as a barometer for the vitality of the private economy, highlighting recent initiatives in Henan Province to promote private investment through policy support and project promotion [1] Group 1: Investment Growth and Structure - In the first five months of this year, private investment in Henan Province increased by 9.7% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 9.7 percentage points and the provincial investment growth rate by 3.1 percentage points, accounting for approximately 60% of the province's fixed asset investment [1] - The investment structure is continuously optimizing, with significant growth in sectors such as electronic information, equipment manufacturing, and new energy vehicles, all maintaining growth rates above 20% [1] Group 2: Project Promotion - A total of 75 major projects with a total investment of 33 billion yuan have been publicly promoted to private capital, focusing on key areas such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, new infrastructure, urban construction, manufacturing, warehousing and logistics, agriculture, and social undertakings [1][2] - Specific projects include 4 transportation projects with a total investment of 2.7 billion yuan, 16 urban construction projects totaling 6.6 billion yuan, 25 manufacturing projects with an investment of 12.8 billion yuan, and 8 warehousing and logistics projects amounting to 4.4 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Characteristics of Promoted Projects - The promoted projects align with policy directions, with local governments prioritizing resource allocation and providing support for funding and land use [3] - The government is leading the promotion, encouraging private capital participation through various flexible methods such as controlling stakes and forming joint ventures [3] - The investment scale of the projects is moderate, with 46 projects in the 100 million to 500 million yuan range, 15 projects between 500 million and 1 billion yuan, and 7 projects exceeding 1 billion yuan, catering to various types of private investment entities [3] Group 4: Policy Support and Future Directions - The article outlines that the government is committed to breaking down barriers to private investment and establishing a regular mechanism for promoting projects to private capital [4] - There is a strong emphasis on enhancing support services and ensuring the efficient implementation of private investment projects, aiming to contribute significantly to the high-quality economic development of the province [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting private investment by optimizing the business environment and reducing barriers, with a focus on new infrastructure and emerging industries, leading to a significant increase in private investment confidence [1][6][10]. Group 1: Investment Projects and Amounts - As of June 25, over 10 trillion yuan in projects are being promoted to private capital, with more than 3,200 quality projects recommended by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [1][6]. - The total number of projects being promoted has reached 11,752, with a total investment amount of 10.15 trillion yuan [6]. - Local governments are also introducing supportive policies to attract private capital, with specific project lists being established in provinces like Tianjin and Hubei [6][7]. Group 2: Focus on Emerging Industries - The current project recommendations include key sectors such as transportation, energy, and new infrastructure, as well as emerging industries like artificial intelligence and low-altitude economy [4][10]. - Private investment is increasingly directed towards new projects, with significant interest in new infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and quantum information [10]. Group 3: Policy Support and Legislative Framework - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law on May 20 has provided strong signals to support private investment in major national strategies and projects [9]. - The NDRC is establishing a special coordination mechanism to promote private capital participation in project construction and enhance support for land use, environmental assessments, and financing [4][8]. Group 4: Trends in Private Investment - Private investment in traditional industries is also experiencing a transformation, with a notable increase in industrial technological upgrades, particularly in sectors like steel and building materials [10]. - Data shows that from January to May, private investment remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in non-real estate private investment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the impact of high tariffs on consumer goods and the potential for Japanese companies to explore opportunities in the US market while mitigating risks by diversifying their supply chains [1][4]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - Despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, the current rates remain significantly higher than before the Trump administration, with the US imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% under a 90-day agreement [2][4]. - The actual tariff rate for the US on Chinese goods is approximately 51.3%, while China's effective tariff rate on US goods is around 37.5%, indicating a mutual escalation of tariffs that negatively impacts both economies [4][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The high tariffs have led to shortages of consumer goods in the US, contributing to rising prices and empty shelves, while US exports have decreased significantly, with a reported 30% drop in export volumes at the Port of Los Angeles [5][6]. - The temporary nature of the tariff suspension creates uncertainty for businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, which struggle to plan for the future amid fluctuating trade policies [5][6]. Japan's Trade Dynamics - Japan's trade has been affected by global economic cycles, with exports experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, leading to a trade deficit in recent months [9][10]. - Japan's export structure is heavily reliant on high-value products such as automobiles and semiconductors, while its imports are primarily raw materials and energy, making it vulnerable to global price changes [9][10]. Japan-US Trade Negotiations - The US has imposed a 10% base tariff on all Japanese goods, with specific tariffs of 25% on automobiles and parts, which are critical to Japan's economy [14][15]. - Japan is actively seeking the removal of these tariffs, emphasizing the importance of the automotive sector in its export economy, which constituted 28.3% of total exports to the US in 2024 [14][15]. Recent Trends and Challenges - Japan's exports to the US have seen a decline, with a 1.8% drop reported in April 2025, marking the first decrease in four months, primarily driven by reduced automobile exports [17]. - The strengthening of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar have further complicated Japan's export competitiveness, contributing to the trade imbalance [17][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the simultaneous decline of gold and the US dollar due to a decrease in safe-haven demand, influenced by geopolitical events and market reactions to statements from President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][5][12] - On Tuesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3368.34, reaching a high of $3370.56 and a low of $3295.29, closing at $3323.74, down $44.45 or 1.32% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 98.38 points, with a high of 98.40 and a low of 97.69, closing at 97.96, down 420 points or 0.43% [3] Group 2 - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6747.72 points, with a high of 6776.92 and a low of 6604.47, closing at 6703.65, down 46.85 points or 0.69% [4] - The article notes that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent ceasefire has led to a significant drop in gold prices, suggesting an overreaction in market sentiment [5][12] - Trump's comments on oil prices and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had a notable impact on market dynamics, with Powell's statements influencing expectations around interest rate changes [12][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the unusual market behavior where both the dollar and commodity prices, including oil, are declining simultaneously, which is typically rare and indicates a potential economic downturn [5][17] - The relationship between the dollar and commodity markets is analyzed, suggesting that if the dollar enters a macro depreciation trend, commodity prices may not follow the same downward trajectory [16][19] - The article concludes that the current economic environment does not show clear signs of a financial crisis, and the macro bullish structure of commodity markets remains intact despite recent fluctuations [19]

2025年6月26日至27日，国家能源局与浙江省人民政府将在浙江省宁波市联合举办上海合作组织能源部 长会议及配套活动。大会以"创新融合，能动未来"为主题，旨在充分利用主席国契机，凝聚各方共识， 推动上合组织框架下能源合作向更高质量、更深层次发展！ （来源：中国电力报） ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 以伊冲突缓和，聚酯产业链大幅回落 市场要闻与数据 6月24日，PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约分别下跌4.57%4.17%、3.03%、3.69%、3.82%，主要原因是伊朗和以色列 停战下原油大跌，截至收盘时原油主力合约SC2508跌幅达到9%(跌停)。 周末美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，伊朗对美国的回击力度有限仅仅袭击了卡塔尔一个空的美军基地且在袭击前提前通 知美国随后，周二特朗普宣布伊以两国停火，战争将快速结束。局势显著缓和后，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油 溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带动能源板块整体下跌。 同时，伊朗的石化装置正在逐步重启中，周一隆众资讯消息称，伊朗因战争因素停车的一套EG装置正在重启，据 悉伊朗境内其他乙二醇装置近期也将陆续重启。PX装置暂没有消息，但若停战，预计也会陆续重启，市场担忧情 绪明显缓解。聚酯产业链期货产品也将重新回归基本面交易，关注前期原料高价下的聚酯减产计划在原料下跌后 还能否兑现；另外PX基本面依然偏紧但市场商谈氛围已有所回落。后期宏观方面7月还有OPEC+会议:关税延期时 限到期等需要关注，地缘端也需要关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for US stocks is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the prospects of fiscal and monetary policies are gradually becoming clear. Although Trump's policies have had less - than - expected impacts, they have changed the market trading logic. The stagflation risk persists, and the path to a soft - landing through interest rate cuts has become more complicated. The high valuation of US stocks is being challenged [1][19]. - Corporate earnings are expected to weaken, but the growth rate remains resilient. The market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, but it is still estimated that the annual earnings growth rate can reach 9%. The valuation expansion space is limited due to high macro - environment uncertainty [2][69]. - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure, with the downside risk higher than the upside risk. However, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner in the second half of the year. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and seize the opportunity to allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks [3][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 US Stock Market Review: Macro - Policy Games Increase Market Volatility - In early 2025, after Trump took office, the market traded around his policy paths. In the first quarter, the focus was on reducing government spending, which initially worried the market about a potential recession. However, the actual reduction was far less than expected. Since April, the threat of reciprocal tariffs has affected market sentiment, but the market recovered quickly as tariff negotiations eased [14]. - Although Trump's policies had less - than - expected implementation, they changed the market trading logic. The emergence of DeepSeek weakened the US's technological monopoly, shaking the "American Exceptionalism" and challenging the high valuation of US stocks [19] 3.2 2025H2 US Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 The US Economy Shows Stagflation Characteristics - The US economy is likely to experience mild stagflation in the second half of the year, with the economy continuing to decline and inflation rising. The stock market has not fully priced in the economic downturn [20]. - Hard economic data has not deteriorated significantly, but soft data has been under pressure. Trade policy uncertainties have increased short - term fluctuations in soft data, leading to deviations in private - sector investment and consumption behavior. Consumer and business confidence have been affected, and the "import - rush" effect has overdrafted future consumption and investment capabilities [23]. - Consumer confidence and inflation expectations have fluctuated with trade policies. Although consumer spending has not declined significantly, the growth rate of durable - goods consumption has slowed down after the "import - rush" effect faded. The employment market is gradually weakening, and corporate investment and inventory growth are expected to decline [25][34][43] 3.2.2 The Prospects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies are Gradually Becoming Clear - The effective tariff rate in the US has declined but remains at a high level. After the expiration of the tariff suspension in July, the tariff policy will become clearer. Whether the tariff is extended or implemented, it will help reduce market uncertainty [56]. - The US fiscal policy is still in an expansionary phase. The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to increase the deficit in the next decade. The US government's debt - ceiling issue may lead to an increase in bond supply in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [58][59][60]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in the third quarter, waiting to assess the impact of macro - policies on inflation and growth. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the rate - cut trading will be more complicated in the second half of the year due to rising inflation [64] 3.3 2025H2 Outlook for US Stock Indexes 3.3.1 Corporate Earnings Expectations Weaken, but Growth Rate Remains Resilient - Affected by the macro - environment, the earnings growth rate of US stocks has reversed its upward trend. The market expects the earnings growth rate to fall to single - digit levels in the next three quarters. However, the performance of corporate earnings in the first quarter was acceptable [67]. - The technology, communication services, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors have maintained an EPS growth rate of over 10%. The technology sector is still the main driver of net profit growth. Although the market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, EPS has maintained an upward trend, providing support for the stock index [69] 3.3.2 Valuation Space is Limited and Difficult to Expand Significantly - Since the beginning of the year, the valuation levels of the three major stock indexes have moved away from historical extremes. However, due to high macro - environment uncertainty, the valuation is unlikely to expand significantly. The static valuation is expected to range between 22 and 26 times [70] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure from tariff negotiations, fiscal policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and increased bond supply. The downside risk is higher than the upside risk. - In the second half of the year, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks. In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 is expected to be supported around 5100; in a neutral scenario, it will operate around 6050; and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 6400 [3][72][73]