期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货饲料周报 关注下周的U S D A报告 豆菜粕短期或宽幅震荡 20260111 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 ◆ 在南美新作丰产的预期下，预计豆菜粕短期或宽幅震荡为主。关注下周一晚将公布的USDA报告。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 美豆方面，暂无可炒作的题材。 ◆ 南美方面，南美巴西主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New Year commodity options have collectively seen an increase in volatility and trading volume. Some varieties in the chemical sector are about to expire, such as short - fiber, methanol, soda ash, glass, bottle chips, caustic soda, propylene, PTA, and sugar 03 series option contracts will expire on Tuesday, while crude oil near - month option contracts will expire on Wednesday. Most implied volatilities are at high levels, and attention should be paid to the risk of rapid time - value erosion [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 9,363,712.6, up 2.45% from last week; the open interest was 8,928,161, up 0.16% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and black products increased, while the trading volume of precious metals decreased, and the trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy products increased significantly [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the flat - volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile data of various commodity options, such as the flat - volatility of corn options being 11.83% and the 60 - day quantile being 93.33% [15]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Various Commodity Options - For each type of commodity option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details the closing prices, price changes, remaining trading days, trading volumes (including call, put, and total), trading volume PCR, open interests (including call, put, and total), open interest PCR, flat - volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main and secondary contracts and all contracts [16][17][18]...[76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - Palm oil is currently in the upper range of the bottom - side oscillation. After the MPOB report next week, there may be a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, but it lacks upward driving force. Long - term direction is unclear, and short - term operations are recommended. Potential driving forces are expected in February - March and April - May [5][8]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - The outlook for South American soybeans is positive, and the US soybeans are expected to stabilize in an oscillatory manner in January. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the domestic spot market's driving force for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation [7][8]. 2.3 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - For soybean meal and soybean No.1, price fluctuations next week are mainly determined by the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; if neutral, it will continue to oscillate at a low level. For soybean No.1, in addition to the USDA report, domestic reserve sales should also be monitored [25]. 2.4 Corn - The corn market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Although there is some selling pressure from farmers before the Spring Festival, the price correction range is limited [38][43]. 2.5 Sugar - Internationally, the sugar market is in a weak - expectation pattern, and New York raw sugar is in a low - level range - bound operation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak basis, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [64][89]. 2.6 Cotton - ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new driving forces, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand and new - year production. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [90][91][106]. 2.7 Live Pigs - Spot prices of live pigs are expected to be weakly oscillatory, and the LH2603 futures contract is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The support level is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 12,000 yuan/ton [110][111]. 2.8 Peanuts - The peanut market is in an oscillatory operation. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling by oil mills, and after the festival, there may be selling pressure [126][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil's 05 contract rose 0.81% last week, and soybean oil's 05 contract rose 1.63%. Palm oil was supported by production cuts and good export data, while soybean oil had limited upward drive due to lack of South American weather speculation [4]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory may exceed 3 million tons, suppressing the rebound of the oil sector. After the MPOB report, there may be a short - term reaction of negative news being digested. For soybean oil, the good prospects of South American soybeans put pressure on US soybeans, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as low purchases in the first quarter and state - reserve auctions [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean prices fluctuated with a slight upward shift. Domestic soybean meal prices were strongly oscillatory, and soybean No.1 prices rose. Factors such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans, import soybean auctions, and market sentiment affected the prices [19][20]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are mainly affected by the USDA report. For soybean No.1, domestic reserve sales also need attention [25]. 3.3 Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, the national average corn price rose slightly last week. In the futures market, the price also increased, and the basis weakened [38][39]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose. Wheat prices fell, and import corn auctions restarted. Corn starch inventory increased, and the corn market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish before the Spring Festival [40][43]. 3.4 Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the US dollar index rose, and New York raw sugar prices increased. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi rose, and Zhengzhou sugar prices also increased. The net long position of funds decreased [62][63]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, the sugar market is in a weak - expectation pattern, and New York raw sugar is in a low - level range - bound operation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a weak basis, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [64][89]. 3.5 Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton and domestic cotton futures and spot prices first rose and then fell. ICE cotton was affected by Chinese cotton prices and other factors, and domestic cotton was affected by market sentiment and fundamentals [90][91][94]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the US cotton export data was mixed, and the situations in other cotton - producing and consuming countries varied. Domestically, cotton prices fluctuated, and the trading volume improved slightly. The yarn and fabric markets had price increases but limited transactions [95][100][101]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices of live pigs were strongly oscillatory, and futures prices were oscillatory. Supply was tight due to slow group - farm sales and strong reluctance to sell by individual farmers. Demand entered a loss - making phase after New Year's Day [108][109]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices of live pigs are expected to be weakly oscillatory. The supply is expected to increase continuously until March 2026, and the demand is in a vacuum period in the middle of January. The LH2603 futures contract is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [110][111]. 3.7 Peanuts - **Market Review**: In the spot market, peanut prices were stable with a slight decline. In the futures market, prices fell last week. The supply was sufficient, and the demand from food enterprises and oil mills was limited [126]. - **Market Outlook**: The peanut market is in an oscillatory operation. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling by oil mills, and after the festival, there may be selling pressure [127].

Group 1 - The global soybean market is experiencing a new round of competition, with US soybean futures fluctuating around 1050 cents per bushel [1] - Analysts indicate that the recent stabilization of US soybean prices is supported by purchases from Chinese enterprises, but the focus is shifting to weather conditions in South America's main production areas as 2026 approaches [1][2] - Current favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina have led institutions to raise production forecasts, creating a strong expectation of high yields, which, combined with a lack of new bullish drivers in the US market, suggests that the upward momentum for US soybean prices is not solid [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic soybean meal inventories are currently high, but improved macro sentiment and a pause in state reserves sales before the Spring Festival may support a potential increase in soybean meal futures prices [1] - The supply dynamics for the first quarter indicate that domestic port soybean inventories are expected to decline rapidly in January and February, but effective imports from soybean auctions are likely to fill supply gaps, preventing widespread soybean shortages before the Spring Festival [1][2] - The market is closely monitoring the supply situation before the arrival of new Brazilian soybeans, with uncertainties regarding the harvest and shipping schedule, as well as a potential supply shortage due to a 20 to 25-day customs clearance period [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, if there are no significant changes in weather conditions in South America's main production areas, US soybean prices are expected to lack upward momentum [3] - If Brazil achieves a production level of 180 million tons, the global soybean cost center will significantly decline, potentially leading to a market dynamic characterized by weakness externally and strength internally [3] - The combination of insufficient arrival volumes in the first quarter and tight supply expectations is supporting the recent strength in soybean meal prices, with market volatility expected to increase significantly from late March to early April as the progress of new Brazilian crops and actual arrival volumes will determine whether supply gaps can be effectively filled [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on January 9, with significant declines in sugar and cocoa futures, while cotton futures saw a slight increase [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - Sugar futures fell by 0.53%, closing at 14.89 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a substantial drop of 12.59%, ending at $5,312 per ton [1] - Coffee futures decreased by 4.38%, closing at 356.05 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures saw a marginal increase of 0.03%, closing at 64.48 cents per pound [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil price is expected to be strong in the future due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and potential export tariff hikes in Indonesia [1][2]. - The cotton price adjustment space is limited as the expected reduction in planting area strengthens supply contraction expectations and downstream demand is resilient [1][5]. - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract is rising steadily. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December, and concerns about Indonesian supply are rising. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 8600 - 8620 [2]. Two - Meal (Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal) - The rapeseed meal main 2605 contract continues to fall due to possible improvement in China - Canada economic and trade relations and weak demand in the aquaculture off - season. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to go short on resistance levels. The soybean meal is supported by strong spot prices and rigid demand from breeding enterprises, and the 2605 contract's market may fluctuate [3]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract is still adjusting to digest long - profit taking pressure. The expected reduction in planting area in Xinjiang strengthens supply contraction, and downstream demand is strong. The main trend of the upward movement remains unchanged. The strategy is to go long after the price stabilizes on dips [5]. Live Pigs - The live pig main 2603 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner. The出栏 pressure in January has decreased, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is in an upward trend. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 11715 - 11750 [7]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main 2605 contract is rising in an oscillatory manner, supported by the expected consumption recovery at the end of the year. Sugar production in Guangxi has decreased year - on - year, and demand is expected to pick up. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long with light positions [10]. Eggs - The egg main 2603 contract is rising steadily, boosted by the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The production capacity is gradually decreasing, and market trading is active. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to go long on dips with light positions, with support at 3010 - 3030 [11][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Agricultural Product Warehouse Receipt Data** - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Changes**: The report presents the warehouse receipt quantities of various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, corn, cotton, live pigs, and sugar, along with their week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes. For example, the latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean meal is 25,410.0 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 3%, a month - on - month increase of 6.6%, and a year - on - year increase of 26% [6]. - **Overall Aggregate**: The total warehouse receipt quantity (in hands) is 105,581.0, showing a week - on - week decrease of 2%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%, and a year - on - year decrease of 39% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures oscillated and closed higher this week, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is entering the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support its price. In China, the corn purchase in the Northeast has exceeded half, reserve and imported corn supplies are increasing, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. Feed and deep - processing enterprises' inventories are rising, and low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price. However, the driving force for continuous increase needs further observation, so it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was at a high level, indicating supply pressure. But some downstream customers are repurchasing corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, so it's necessary to pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. Affected by the rise in corn price, starch prices followed suit, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but good exports support the price. In China, as of December 29, 1.17 billion tons of corn had been purchased in the Northeast. After New Year's Day, reserve and imported corn supplies increased, farmers were reluctant to sell, deep - processing enterprises' inventories rose, and feed enterprises maintained rigid procurement. Low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price, but the driving force for continuous increase needs observation [6]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. High inventory means supply pressure, but some downstream customers are turning back to corn starch due to tapioca starch price increase. Pay attention to pre - Spring Festival stocking [8]. 2. Qixian Shichang Qingkuang (Futures and Spot Market Situation) Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 1,049,843 lots, up 40,582 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 197,160 lots, up 1,671 lots from last week [14]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 146,474, compared with - 168,889 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 40,680, compared with - 31,610 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,555 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,477 lots [26]. Spot Price and Basis - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 88 yuan/ton [31]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 165 yuan/ton [35]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 43 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 272 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [48]. Substitute Spread - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2511.44 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 160.07 yuan/ton. In the second week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 626 yuan/ton, narrowing 35 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Chan Ye Qingkuang (Industrial Chain Situation) Corn Supply Side - As of January 2, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, up 93,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 294,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, down 75,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 593,000 tons, down 74,000 tons week - on - week [45]. - As of January 8, the overall corn selling progress was 48%, up 4% from last week and 3% from the same period last year. Different provinces showed varying progress [57]. - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) from the same period last year and 200,000 tons from the previous month [61]. - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, up 0.18 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [65]. Demand Side - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, up 9.86 million (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million, down 450,000 (1.12%) month - on - month [69]. - As of January 2, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 48.35 yuan/head [73]. - As of January 8, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 510 yuan/ton in Henan, - 826 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 289 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [78]. Corn Starch Supply Side - As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.54 million tons, with an increase of 1.32% [82]. - From January 1 - 7, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, down 3,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 324,800 tons, down 2,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, down 0.49% from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 2,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14% [86]. 4. Qiquan Shichang Fenxi (Option Market Analysis) - As of January 9, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated and rose, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 12.23%, up 0.91% from 11.32% last week. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [89].

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1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar spot prices have slightly recovered due to concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi's sugar production. Globally, sugar is in a supply - surplus situation. The SR2605 contract is recommended to hold positions, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400 [4]. - **Pulp**: Pulp supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but overseas producer inventory is at a two - year high. The upward space for pulp is limited, and it is supported by the increase in delivery costs after the reduction of Russian needle pulp warehouse receipts. The 2605 contract has resistance at 5700 - 5800 and support at 5400 - 5450 [4][5]. - **Offset Paper**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the offset paper spot market remained stable. The increase in paper mill inventory and the large fluctuation of raw material pulp prices limit the upward space of the offset paper futures. The 2605 contract has support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4300 - 4500 [6][7]. - **Cotton**: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but the marginal negative impact is decreasing. In China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year and a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. The 05 contract is expected to have a rising center of gravity, but there may be a short - term adjustment [9]. - **Apples**: The apple 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and rising purchase prices. However, due to concerns about consumption, the upward momentum has slowed. It is expected to remain in a high - range [11]. - **Jujubes**: Jujube spot prices are stable, and futures prices have rebounded. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the new - jujube production reduction expectation has cooled down. The 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000, and investors can consider a reverse spread strategy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with support at 8800 - 8900 and resistance at 10000 - 10200; for Jujube 2605, it is recommended to buy on dips, with support at 8700 - 9000 and resistance at 9500 - 9800 [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 5180 - 5200 and resistance at 5350 - 5400; for Pulp 2605, it is recommended to be long in the range, with support at 5300 - 5400 and resistance at 5600 - 5800; for Offset Paper 2605, it is recommended to wait and see, with support at 3900 - 4000 and resistance at 4200 - 4300; for Cotton 2605, it is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 13500 - 13600 and resistance at 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In November 2025, fresh apple exports increased by 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased compared to the pre - New Year's Day level. The spot price in the producing area was stable, and the sales volume increased, while the low - quality goods in the sales area were weak [22][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 4, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 1.57% month - on - month and increased by 38.34% year - on - year. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the arrival in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales season [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production decreased. In China, the number of sugar mills in Yunnan and Guangdong has increased, and Inner Mongolia's sugar production is expected to increase [24][25]. - **Pulp Market**: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, the price of BHK pulp in Asia increased by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. - **Offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset paper increased, and the social demand was weak. The start - up rate increased due to publication orders [30]. - **Cotton Market**: In December, Brazil's cotton exports reached a record high, and Vietnam's cotton imports increased. As of January 5, 2026, the cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Bonded Area decreased year - on - year. The Xinjiang Cotton Planting Industry Chain Conference will be held on January 9 [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2605, Jujube 2605, Sugar 2605, Pulp 2605, and Cotton 2605 all decreased on the day, with declines of - 0.54%, - 0.82%, - 0.04%, - 1.64%, and - 1.96% respectively [32]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of apples remained unchanged month - on - month and increased year - on - year; jujubes decreased month - on - month and year - on - year; sugar remained unchanged month - on - month and decreased year - on - year; pulp remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; offset paper remained unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year; cotton increased month - on - month and year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [54]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: The current value is 1080, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 and a year - on - year increase of 1568. It is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread: The current value is 55, with a month - on - month increase of 90 and a year - on - year decrease of 535. It is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 11, with a month - on - month increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 137. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: The current value is - 190, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 40. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 2263 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 888. - Sugar: 6005 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 8358. - Pulp: 135,506 warehouse receipts, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 202,275. - Cotton: 7189 warehouse receipts, with a month - on - month increase of 140 and a year - on - year increase of 2847 [93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text information is provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [97].