Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, leading to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans and a significant tightening of the ending stocks. The prices of soybean meal futures are supported by the cost of imports. For palm oil, the increase in production and exports in Malaysia, along with concerns about Indonesia's production and policy, will cause short - term oscillations in the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with their price changes, price differences, and price - to - price difference ratios. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8526, with a price increase of 10 and a price increase rate of 0.12%. The current value of the Y9 - 1 spread was 32, compared to a previous value of 28 [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price increase rates of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, and others are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4473, with a price increase of 135 and a price increase rate of 3.11% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices, price increase rates, spot basis, and spot price differences of domestic products like soybean oil, palm oil, and others are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8730, with a price increase rate of 0.00%, and the spot basis is 204 [1] - **Import and Profit**: The current and previous values of import profit for varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, and others are provided. For example, the current import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195, compared to a previous value of - 204 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - **Crop Inspection**: ProFarmer's crop inspection estimates that the corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 will be 185.69 bushels, and the average number of soybean pods in Ohio will be 1287.28, showing an increase compared to 2024 [2] - **Protein Meal**: The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans from 43.35 billion bushels to 42.92 billion bushels. The export estimate of U.S. soybeans has been further reduced to 17.05 billion bushels, and the ending stocks of U.S. soybean futures in the 25/26 season have decreased to 2.9 billion bushels [2] - **Oils**: According to high - frequency data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 0.88% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 34.5%. Indonesia's policies and actions have also affected the palm oil market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Follow macro trends and undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Soybean: Weak atmosphere in the soybean sector, adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Corn: Run weakly [2][15] - Sugar: The import volume in July increased significantly year-on-year [2][18] - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton [2][23] - Eggs: Weak long - term expectations [2][29] - Live pigs: Wait for the spot market verification at the end of the month [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][37] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.57% and a night - session decrease of 1.06%. Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.07% and a night - session decrease of 1.99%. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to stay above 4300 ringgit [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.44% and a night - session decrease of 1.04%. DCE soybean 2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.25% and a night - session decrease of 0.81%. CBOT soybeans 11 closed down 0.70% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good soybean yield potential and long - position profit - taking. Private exporters reported selling 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 1.10% and a night - session decrease of 0.27%. C2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.60% and a night - session decrease of 0.23%. The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.3 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5661 yuan/ton. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.18% and a flat night - session. ICE cotton 12 closed down 0.46%. Cotton spot trading was average, and the cotton yarn market showed a slight recovery [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509 closed down 4.27%, and Egg 2601 closed down 1.64%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 485, a decrease from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts increased year - on - year. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [33]. - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms increased in August, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support level of LH2509 is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.02%, and PK511 had a decrease of 0.38%. New peanuts in some areas are gradually being listed, with limited supply [37][38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on August 19, with all major contracts closing lower [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 0.77%, closing at 1033.25 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures decreased by 0.86%, ending at 403.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures dropped by 0.81%, closing at 520.75 cents per bushel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Strongly [1][5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating Weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Strongly [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term, oils and fats are likely to continue strong due to factors like increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil减产 season [1][5]. - The protein meal market may shift from a structure of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weak and far - term strong. The futures price is expected to strengthen gradually [6]. - Corn prices may face short - term uncertainty due to old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [7][8]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the industry [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to good macro sentiment and short - term fundamental support [13]. - Synthetic rubber prices may oscillate strongly in the short term as butadiene prices are likely to rise slightly [14]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and within the 5,600 - 5,900 yuan range in the short term [17]. - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate, with the main 11 - contract running in the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. - Log prices are expected to run within the 790 - 840 range, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, US soybeans and soybean oil rose due to technical buying. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend yesterday, with palm oil strong and soybean oil oscillating weakly [1][5]. - **Macro Environment**: The market has a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell [1][5]. - **Industrial Factors**: USDA's August report expects a record - high US soybean yield. US soybean exports face uncertainties due to Sino - US trade relations. US biodiesel demand for soybean oil is expected to increase, but this year's demand is down year - on - year. Palm oil is in the production season, with an expected high output in August. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, but imports from other regions may increase [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: US soybean good - quality rate is 68%. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has declined. CFTC's net short position in US soybeans has decreased. US soybeans are expected to oscillate around 1,050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The market recognizes near - term inventory pressure and far - term supply gaps. Some oil mills will conduct maintenance or reduce operating rates, and forward - purchase contracts are popular among downstream. The market should watch for Sino - US relations and hog industry impacts on demand [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Price Information**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2,300 yuan/ton, and the domestic average corn price is 2,375 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually released, and demand is weak due to low profits in the livestock and deep - processing industries. Policy - related imports have a lower transaction rate. There may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, and new crop supply is expected to be abundant [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **Price Information**: On August 18, the price of Henan's live hogs (outer ternary) was 13.59 yuan/kg, and the futures closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply is increasing, and mid - term supply is expected to rise due to high sow capacity. Long - term supply may decrease due to anti - involution policies. Demand shows a stable pork - to - hog price ratio and an expanding premium for fat hogs. The industry has a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Price Information**: Qingdao Bonded Area's RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, and Thailand's raw material prices have declined [10][12]. - **Market Logic**: Rubber prices rose last Friday due to rumors of state reserves release and then adjusted. Seasonal factors and various rumors support price increases. Short - term supply may decrease, and demand is stable [13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Price Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has declined, and butadiene prices have shown a mixed trend [14]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures followed the overall commodity market's decline. The market is influenced by natural rubber sentiment and butadiene supply shortages. Butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Cotton's 09 contract closed at 13,830 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 14,125 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Logic**: Positive factors include the extension of the suspension of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, a reduction in the US cotton output forecast, low domestic commercial inventories, and improved downstream demand. However, new - crop production is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the futures at 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Sugar's 09 contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 5,672 yuan/ton [17]. - **Market Logic**: The market has revised down the forecast of Brazil's sugar production in the new season, which has adjusted the global sugar surplus expectation. The domestic market has limited downside space but faces supply pressure from imports [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **Price Information**: Shandong's coniferous pulp prices have shown a mixed trend [18]. - **Market Logic**: The pulp market has both positive and negative factors. Broad - leaf pulp has short - term rebound momentum, but long - term supply and demand are still a concern. The futures are expected to oscillate within the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Logic**: The market is trading based on the product's fundamentals. Positive factors include increased cost - side valuation and improved port arrival pressure. Negative factors include weak demand, undigested warehouse receipts, and new warehouse receipt registrations. The market is expected to run within the 790 - 840 range [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are under pressure due to ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and high expectations of a new corn harvest, and the weak trend is expected to continue [1][2] - Egg prices are also declining as egg - laying hen inventory is high, new production is increasing, and cold - storage eggs are continuously hitting the market, and the weak trend is likely to persist [1][4] - Palm oil prices are rising due to strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas [5][7] - Soybean oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with short - term supply increase and long - term supply shortage expectations [8][10] - Hog prices are rebounding from a low level, with supply being relatively loose and demand showing signs of mild recovery [11] - Cotton prices are in high - level consolidation, with factors such as declining commercial inventory and weak downstream demand [13] - Jujube prices are fluctuating at a high level, with concerns about production and expectations of improved downstream consumption [16] - Sugar prices are fluctuating at a high level, with supply - side pressure from increasing imports and improved domestic market trading [19] - Soybean meal prices are rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter [20][22] - Apple prices are adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas [23] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Corn prices are falling continuously because of ample supply, and the weak trend is expected to continue; egg prices are also in a downward trend due to high supply pressure [1] 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn is falling continuously to new lows because of ample supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, strong substitution advantage of wheat, and approaching new corn listing. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 2150, and the resistance level is 2180 [2] (2) Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs is falling under supply pressure, with high egg - laying hen inventory, increasing new production, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3050, and the resistance level is 3080 [4] (3) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil is rising, boosted by strong exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about subsequent supply in production areas. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 9508, and the resistance level is 9736 [7] (4) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil is fluctuating at a high level, with short - term supply increase due to concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and long - term supply shortage expectations. Technically, it is in an upward trend, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8500, and the resistance level is 8580 [8][10] (5) Hog - The main 2511 contract of hogs is rebounding from a low level. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is showing mild recovery. Technically, the main downward trend is still in place, and a short - position reduction strategy is recommended. The support level is 13800, and the resistance level is 14950 [11] (6) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton is in high - level consolidation, with declining commercial inventory, less imported cotton, and weak downstream demand. Technically, it is recommended to close long positions. The support level is 14050, and the resistance level is 14200 [13] (7) Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujubes is fluctuating at a high level. There are concerns about production decline, and downstream consumption is expected to improve. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 11435, and the resistance level is 11825 [16] (8) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar is fluctuating at a high level. Domestic market trading is improving, but import volume is increasing, putting pressure on the supply side. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 5647, and the resistance level is 5700 [19] (9) Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal is rising, supported by uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and expectations of less imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Technically, it is strong, and a light - long position strategy is recommended. The support level is 3154, and the resistance level is 3190 [20][22] (10) Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples is adjusting at a high level, with low inventory and different situations in different production areas. Technically, the upward trend remains, and a long - position holding strategy is recommended. The support level is 8108, and the resistance level is 8250 [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market factors affecting each product, offering investment suggestions based on short - and long - term outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans had a 44,521 - ton auction, with 27,733 tons sold at an average price of 4,145 yuan/ton. Market supply increased marginally, while demand was weak. The price gap with imported soybeans is shrinking. US crop inspections showed increased pod numbers in some states. Weather, policies, and imported soybeans should be monitored [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. Future weather may challenge new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed boosted meal prices. 8 - 10 month soybean arrivals are expected to be around 10 million tons. Supply is sufficient this year, but there are uncertainties in the far - month. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections showed positive results for soybeans. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is negative. The price difference between Malaysian and Indonesian crude palm oil is weakening. Long - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures had a weak rebound. Chinese companies may import Australian rapeseed, with new crops expected to arrive at the end of the year. The market is expected to rebound in the short - term, and new import trends should be watched [6] Corn - As of August 19, China's CGSCA had 15 imported corn auctions, with a low total成交 rate of 36.38%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Short - term spot prices are strengthening, but mid - term prices are expected to decline due to high supply. Policy may support prices at a certain level. A sell - on - rallies hedging strategy is recommended [8] Eggs - Egg futures are accelerating downward. Spot prices are weak, and over - capacity is a long - term issue. Mid - term, prices may continue to fall to reduce capacity. Short - term, profit - taking risks should be watched [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is mainly affected by cost increases, but there are many uncertainties in the market. The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate. The rapeseed meal market has significant price fluctuations, and the supply shortage still provides some support for the price. In the medium - term, the rapeseed meal market will have relatively obvious positive factors. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are to buy low for single - side trading, expand the MRM05 spread for arbitrage, and buy call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - The US soybean futures continued to be strong, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a phased adjustment. The upward trend of rapeseed meal futures slowed down. The month - to - month spread of soybean meal declined significantly, while that of rapeseed meal strengthened but still fluctuated. The near - month spread of rapeseed meal showed a restorative upward trend, and the far - month spread reflected concerns about future supply [4]. - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3161, 2844, and 3113 respectively, with changes of +6, - 3, and +13. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2604, 2505, and 2678 respectively, with changes of +14, +1, and - 10 [4]. - In terms of basis, for soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao, the current basis was - 50, - 190, - 170, and - 140 respectively, with changes of +30, - 10, - 10, and +10. For rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi, the current basis was - 38, - 38, and - 48 respectively, with changes of +40, 0, and 0 [4]. - Regarding the month - to - month spread, for soybean meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 269, - 48, and 317 respectively, with changes of - 16, +7, and +9. For rapeseed meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 173, 74, and 99 respectively, with changes of +11, - 24, and +13 [4]. - The cross - variety spreads: the current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 were 557 and 435 respectively, compared with 565 and 412 yesterday. The oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.697, compared with 2.699 yesterday. The current spot spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean meal - sunflower meal, and rapeseed meal - sunflower meal were 377, 473, and 116 respectively, with changes of - 51, - 7, and +4 [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - In the US, the old - crop soybean balance sheet is clearly positive. Exports are basically completed, and the crush volume is also increased, resulting in a certain decrease in the ending stocks. For new - crop soybeans, although the yield per unit is increased, the supply is tightened due to a large reduction in the planting area. The cumulative exports of new - crop soybeans are still slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio is expected to have limited positive effects. If more positive factors emerge, the US soybean futures may continue to be strong [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybeans are in a situation of relatively loose supply and demand. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The total ending stocks or exports may increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is relatively slow, and there is still price pressure. However, the relatively high price of Brazilian soybeans is due to the optimistic outlook for future exports [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is still obvious. It is expected that the soybean crush volume in major producing areas will increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the imports of major soybean meal importing countries only increase slightly. The soybean - related market still faces pressure, and the price center is expected to decline [5]. - In China, the domestic soybean meal spot market is still loose. The oil refinery operating rate remains high, the supply is sufficient, and the提货量 also increases. The inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume increases, mainly in basis trading. There are increasing concerns about the tight supply in the far - month. As of August 15, the actual soybean crush volume of oil refineries was 2.339 million tons, the operating rate was 65.75%, the soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons (4.24%) from last week and a decrease of 243,500 tons (3.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons (1.12%) from last week and a decrease of 481,800 tons (32.2%) year - on - year [7]. - The demand for rapeseed meal in China has gradually weakened recently. The operating rate of oil refineries has decreased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the supply pressure remains. Although there are uncertainties in the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also weakening. As of the week of August 15, the rapeseed crush volume of major coastal oil refineries was 44,800 tons, and the operating rate this week was 11.94%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomics - The negotiation between China and the US in London has been completed, but the market lacks clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. There are still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market stabilizes, macro - disturbances decrease. Since China still has a high demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short - term, especially in the absence of macro - guidance [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures fluctuate mainly because the cost is significantly increased. The current price of US soybeans does not fully reflect the positive factors, and the situation in the monthly supply - demand report is more affected by the exports of US new - crop soybeans, which is also closely related to the domestic soybean meal supply. Therefore, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [9]. - The rapeseed meal market has significantly enlarged price fluctuations. After a large - scale adjustment in the past few days, the price shows some support after the decline. The market generally pays attention to the import of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - term, the positive factors for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. In the future, the rapeseed meal market may need to limit the demand through a lower price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - The month - to - month spread of soybean meal still faces downward pressure, while that of rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, especially for the far - month spread [9].

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.68% at 2177 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - ProFarmer's crop survey predicts Ohio's corn yield for 2025 at 185.69 bushels per acre, up from 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024. South Dakota's corn yield is expected to be 174.18 bushels per acre in 2025, compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024 [2] - The USDA's export inspection report shows that as of the week ending August 14, 2025, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,050,715 tons, at the lower end of expectations, down 31% from the previous week and down 14% year-on-year [2] - In the third week of August 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 3.1264 million tons of corn, compared to 6.0632 million tons in August last year. The average daily shipment was 284,200 tons, an increase of 3.13% from 275,600 tons per day last August [2] Institutional Views - Zhengxin Futures indicates that strong exports support a rebound in U.S. corn prices, while domestic reserve purchases bolster wheat prices. However, short-term corn supply remains stable, and market bearish sentiment persists, suggesting a weak performance for corn in the short term. In the medium to long term, as the new corn harvest approaches, selling pressure from traders is expected to increase, leading to an overall weak trend for corn [3] - Zhongyuan Futures notes a "double weakness" in fundamentals: on one hand, the USDA report continues to exert a bearish effect, maintaining a high good-to-excellent rate of 72% for U.S. corn, which suppresses import costs; on the other hand, the domestic state reserve's corn auction has a low transaction rate of only 18%, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Current prices have broken below the previous range of 2180-2200, suggesting that existing short positions should be held, and new positions should focus on shorting at resistance levels around 2185, while being cautious of potential drops before the new corn season in September [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Report Core Views - The cotton market has limited upward momentum and will likely continue to fluctuate. Although the global supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tighter one, there are doubts about the supply reduction, and the downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [1][2] - The sugar market will mainly follow the trend of raw sugar. In the short - term, it will be range - bound due to domestic spot pressure, but there may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter [4][6] - The pulp market has no obvious improvement in fundamentals and lacks positive drivers. It is expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short term [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,082 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a decrease of 5.117 million mu, and the harvest area was 44.65 million mu, a decrease of 7.928 million mu, with an abandonment rate of 20.7%, up 6.3 percentage points [1] - India's 2023/24 cotton production was expected to be 5.72 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons (+3.4%), and imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 tons (-13.1%). The ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons (+29.8%) [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending inventory made the supply - demand pattern tighter, but the lack of abnormal weather in the US cotton - growing areas and other major producing countries led to doubts about the tight pattern, and ICE cotton fluctuated [2] - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton in July, low expected imports in the third quarter, and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas supported cotton prices in the short term. However, weak downstream demand limited the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but potential regulatory policies and the lack of long - term upward drivers limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar to meet domestic demand and stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian bi - weekly report showed a slight decrease in sugarcane crushing and sugar production but a record - high sugar - making ratio, leading to a decline in raw sugar futures. However, concerns about sugarcane quality and downward revisions of Brazilian production estimates limited the decline [5][6] - In the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales, high import profits, and large - scale arrival of imported sugar increased spot pressure. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new crushing season may lead to a rally in the fourth quarter [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on changes in Brazilian production estimates [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] - The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with individual price adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, especially for hardwood pulp. With the commissioning of domestic pulp production capacity in the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to decline. However, slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8] - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and a traditional off - season in the domestic market led to weak demand. Low effective terminal demand, low paper mill operating rates, and over - capacity in the paper industry limited demand improvement [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. With no obvious improvement in the pulp market fundamentals, prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [9]