大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-25原油早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2604： 1.基本面：一位白宫官员表示，美国周二开始征收新的10%全球临时进口关税，但特朗普政府正努力将税率 提高至15%；美国总统特朗普的发言人表示，特朗普对伊朗的首选方案始终是外交手段，但必要时他愿意动 用致命武力；上周伊朗原油和凝析油的装船量跃升至近2700万桶，即约378万桶/日，几乎是近期约1,000万 桶的周平均水平的三倍；英国周二对俄罗斯近300个目标实施制裁，其中包括俄罗斯石油管道运输公司。英 国称这是自俄乌冲突升级以来规模最大的制裁措施；中性 2.基差：2月24日，阿曼原油现货价为70.64美元/ ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注贸易问题。宏观方面，国务院常务会议部署做好春节假期后政府工作，要求着力抓好重点任务落 实，支持地方和企业积极探索打造新增长点。会议研究推进银发经济和养老服务发展有关工作，指出要 进一步释放银发消费需求，发挥消费补贴等政策牵引作用，推动普惠养老服务供给提质扩面。经文化和 旅游部数据中心测算，春节假日9天，全国国内出游5.96亿人次，较2025年春节假日8天增加0.95亿人 次；国内出游总花费8034.83亿元，较2025年春节假日8天增加1264.81亿元，假日游客人数和花费均创历 史新高。海外方面，美国正式开始征收10%全球关税，白宫正在准备把税率提高到15%的正式命令。美 国白宫就伊朗问题表示，特朗普总统的首选方案永远是外交手段，但必要时也愿意使用致命武力。 指数收涨。现货市场，A股三大指数收红，上证指数涨0.87%收于4117.41点，创业板指涨0.99%。行业 方面，板块指数涨多跌少，石油石化、建筑材料、基础化工、有色金属行业领涨，传媒、计算机、商贸 零售行业跌幅居前。成交小幅放量，当日沪深两 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 美国联邦最高法院裁定特朗普政府无权援引《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA) 开征关税，而特朗普政府在取消 IEPPA 关税的同时宣布开征 122 条款临时关税且 威胁加征更多关税，国际贸易形势的混乱势必带来更多避险需求并抑制经济增长 前景，加上美伊冲突一触即发且俄乌谈判毫无进展，来自宏观市场和地缘政治的 避险需求推动伦敦黄金企稳回升至 5150 美元/盎司上方。我们判断贵金属中长期 上涨驱动力不变，贵金属板块已有从 1 月底暴跌中恢复的迹象，建议投资者继续 持偏多思路参与交易；但波动性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：由于供应充足且需求疲软，亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构进一步走弱。此前，380CST高硫燃料油现货价 差在截至2月20日的一周内触及近11个月高点后，已连续第三个交易日下跌；得益于壳牌对3月装船的船货持续强 劲的出价，新加坡含硫0.5%船用燃料油的现货价差为升水1.88美元/吨。数据显示，目前现货升水是自1月29日以 来的最高水平；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油412.82美元/吨，基差为-19元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为489.45美元/吨，基差为-28元 /吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油2月11日当周库存为2637.9万桶，增加85万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空 6、预期：目前高硫燃料油市场供应充足，而下游船用燃料需求没能提供太多支撑，给市场结构带来压力，隔夜 地缘担忧暂无加重迹象，油价震荡调整运行，燃油窄幅震荡。FU2605：2890-2940区间运行，LU2605：3450-3490 区间运行 近期多空分析 利多： 2026-0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-25甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：从供应来看，国内甲醇装置整体开工仍处于相对高位，伊朗地区甲醇装置开工偏低，进口到港量存在收缩 预期，沿海地区供应压力有限，但内地企业供应仍较为充裕；从需求来看，沿海部分烯烃装置仍处停车状态，下游季节 性需求疲软，节后终端需求难以快速修复，整体刚需表现偏弱；另外库存是影响甲醇市场走势的关键因素，内地企业在 节前通过预售排库转移部分库存压力，但下游接货后消化缓慢，节后采购需求仍显弱势，沿海地区则因进口缩量支撑， 库存去库缓慢但仍维持相对高位。目前甲醇市场缺乏明确驱动，内地受制于供需偏松格局，价格上行乏力，而沿海受 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半，早盘冲高后横向波动略有回落，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 涨 0.20%，10 年期 T2603 涨 0.02%，5 年期 TF2606 涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2603 涨 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 5260 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 14524 亿元逆回 购到期，当日净回笼 9264 亿元。2 月 LPR 连续第九个月持稳：1 年期 LPR 报 3%，上 次为 3%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上次为 3.5%。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅上行，DR001 全天加 权平均为 1. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：恐慌情绪降温，金价冲高回落；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指 收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.38个基点报4.031%； 美元指数涨0.17%报97.90，离岸人民币对美元升值报6.8798；COMEX黄金期货跌 1.25%报5160.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国总统特朗普发表国情咨文演讲、欧元区1月CPI终值、美联储 委员密集讲话。关税风波担忧情绪降温，金价冲高回落。沪金溢价扩大为4.7元/ 克。避险情绪有所降温，关税风波市场反应疲软，金价震荡。 2 ...

晨会纪要 2026 第（32）期 发布日期：2026-02-25 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,108.50 | 1,101.50 | 7.0 | 0.635 | | | 焦炭 | 1,646.50 | 1,634.50 | 12.0 | 0.734 | | | 天然橡胶 | 17,180.00 | 17,030.00 | 150.0 | 0.881 | | | 20号胶 | 13,930.00 | 13,795.00 | 135.0 | 0.979 | | | 塑料 | 6,826.00 | 6,820.00 | 6.0 | 0.088 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,747.00 ...

日期 2026 年 2 月 25 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 行业 锌期货日报 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 24480 | 24630 | 24680 | 23355 | 380 | 1.57 | 5735 | 55 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | 2420 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The precious metals market is volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver should be carefully participated in. The copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Alumina prices may have potential upward drivers. Lead is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and zinc should be traded within a range. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips. For the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see, with radical investors considering short - term long positions in some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends and trading strategies. In the energy and chemical industry, different products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations [1][2][3][5][6][8]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold and silver prices fell in the night session yesterday. Gold fell by 5142 dollars/ounce, and silver fell by 1.24% to 87 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and inflation - related statements were made by Fed officials. Domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventory changes occurred in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious in participating in the silver market [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices strengthened significantly in the night session yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Trump's plan to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals may intensify concerns. The demand shows certain characteristics such as spot premiums and post - festival inventory accumulation [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, US tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose, but there may be upward drivers, and the upward space depends on the marginal change of the supply - demand pattern [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On February 24, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24625 yuan/ton and 16670 yuan/ton respectively, with different price changes compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For lead, the processing fee at the mine end is low, production decreased in February, and demand is limited. For zinc, the processing fee is also low, production decreased seasonally, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short lead on rallies and trade zinc within the range of 23500 - 25500 yuan/ton [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 164,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.52% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of lithium - related products increased. Supply decreased in February, and demand also decreased seasonally. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to concerns about lithium ore export blockades and good expectations for material production in March [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices strengthened significantly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and there are concerns about Indonesian policies. The demand shows strong premiums and increased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar 2605 closed at 3030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The demand for building materials is weak, but supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and exports are high. There is significant inventory accumulation during the festival [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in rebar 2605. The reference range for RB05 is 3000 - 3060 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed at 743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. Port inventory is high, and there are structural contradictions [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 735 - 765 [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal 2605 closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in coking coal 2605. The reference range for JM05 is 1080 - 1140 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean crushing is strong, and export concerns are alleviated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market is also volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and most spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low, but downstream is in a loss state [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the Spring Festival, deep - processing enterprises in North China will replenish inventory, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is in the late stage of seasonal production reduction, and the demand decreased in February [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of late - stage seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations is weakened. An inverse hedging strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to subsequent production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5252 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase is completed, and the focus is on Brazil's new - season production expectations. Domestically, the supply is more relaxed, and the inventory will reach a high level after March [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and closed flat. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose to a recent high [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Globally, the cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% in 26/27, and consumption and exports are expected to increase. In the US, imports from India increased. Domestically, the rising ICE cotton price helps the domestic cotton price strengthen [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and some spot prices increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices weakened across the board [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. The supply is strong and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival, and both futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6640 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as there is no new device put into operation in the first half of the year, and some existing devices reduce production or stop. The import window is closed, and the demand is weak currently but will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate strongly, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran incident [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4963, an increase of 0.6% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory, with large supply and low demand as downstream factories have not resumed work. The real estate market is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is 933 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China is 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. The supply of PTA is at a medium level, and the polyester factory load is at a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is not large, and the profit of polyester products has improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the view of long - term allocation of PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1061, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass inventory increased during the holiday, and the price is stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream is not yet in operation, and the price is affected by macro - expectations [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to buy 09 and sell 01 for a positive spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6620 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases as new device put - into - operation decreases and some devices stop unexpectedly. The demand is low currently as downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate. The upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran incident. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction is still large, and it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3648 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 86 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as some devices are transferred or under maintenance. The import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China has increased to 900,000 tons, and the polyester load is seasonally low. The overall inventory pressure is not large [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Inventory accumulation is expected, and de - stocking may start in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices have been fluctuating recently as the market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation on the 26th. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about 10 dollars/barrel [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure due to EU policies, but the loading volume remains stable. The short - term core factor is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the production capacity of some countries is continuously released [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current trading core is the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [10]. Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rose significantly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 7700 yuan/ton, and the overseas price is stable with a slight increase. The import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate strongly due to inventory accumulation and marginal improvement in supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Styrene will fluctuate as the inventory is normal, the basis is strong, and the supply increases while the demand decreases [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1184, an increase of 1.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is weak as there is a production - reduction expectation for photovoltaic glass and float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply increases and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10].