1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 26, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis for power coal on March 25, 2026, was - 45.4 yuan/ton, showing an increase compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities are provided from March 19 to March 25, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 25 was 345.10 yuan/ton [9] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 25 was - 130 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 775 yuan/ton [12] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 25 was 2944 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Black Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on March 25 was 88.0 yuan/ton [22] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month (10) vs 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) vs 5 - month for螺纹钢, iron ore, etc., are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 was - 50.0 yuan/ton [21] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are given. For example, the 螺/矿 ratio on March 25 was 3.85 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on March 25 was - 90 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on March 25, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (71.23) [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans (bean one and bean two), soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of bean one on March 25 was - 29 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of bean one was - 36 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as 豆一/玉米, 豆油/豆粕, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are provided. For example, the 豆一/玉米 ratio on March 25 was 1.94 [40] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 25 was 87.47 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 21.2 [51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply, with a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as inflation expectations and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - Different sectors in the market show various trends. For example, in the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply - demand relationships and price trends for different products; in the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors like the Middle - East situation and supply - demand balance; in the financial market, A - share markets have certain investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain [11][15][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, among chemical products, methanol had the largest increase of 1.942% (from 3,089.00 to 3,149.00), and benzene had the largest decrease of 1.217% (from 10,105.00 to 9,982.00) [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **Middle - East Situation**: The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the conflict has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries [6]. - **Fed's Decision**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a more conservative approach to future interest rate cuts, reflecting a cautious stance in the face of multiple risks [7]. - **China - US Relations**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China [8]. - **Land Policy**: China is conducting a second - round pilot project to extend land contracts for another 30 years, emphasizing the protection of collective ownership and the prevention of "non - agricultural" and "non - grain" use of land [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under short - term supply pressure, but the international market has a tightening supply expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of long - term contracts at low prices, with a support level of 5400 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 5450 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak - oscillating trend. The supply pressure may increase in the short term, and the support level is in the range of 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The peanut price is in a high - level oscillation. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with a resistance level around 8200 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The pig price is declining. The supply is sufficient, and the market is pessimistic. It is advisable to reduce short positions [11][13]. - **Egg**: The egg price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is sufficient, but there is also support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct intraday operations [13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to conduct intraday range operations [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a strong - oscillating trend. The supply is slightly affected by the import quota, and the demand is improving. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level around 15300 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is rising, and there is an expectation of increased exports. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - term contract correction [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is stable with a slight increase, and the first - round price increase of coke has not been responded to by steel mills. The price is in an oscillating adjustment [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is recovering, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with a resistance level in the 4220 - 4230 area and a support level of 4180 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue high - level consolidation in the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are rising due to factors such as the tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's interest - rate cut signal. They are in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to risks [15][17]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are following the market correction. It is recommended to wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply of alumina is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips and be vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market's supply - demand structure is improving, but the steel price is slightly under pressure in the short term and is expected to have a small - scale oscillating adjustment [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are strong, mainly due to the energy premium caused by the geopolitical conflict. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips, but be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has broken through the previous high. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on price corrections, with a resistance level of 161500 yuan and a support level of 158000 yuan [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 25, A - share indexes rose, and different stock index options showed different trends in volume and open interest. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can take corresponding strategies according to price changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: On March 25, the three major indexes oscillated and rose. The A - share market has investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain. It is advisable to control positions and participate in the rebound [19][22].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the collaboration between the Shenyin Wanguo Public Welfare Foundation and the Xuhui District government to enhance support for rural revitalization and targeted assistance efforts [2] - The Xuhui District government shared successful experiences in providing assistance to regions like Kashgar in Xinjiang and the Bingtuan Caohua project area, focusing on the establishment of support mechanisms and project implementation [2] - The foundation highlighted its recent initiatives in regions such as Makeyti County in Kashgar and Huining County in Gansu, showcasing achievements in industrial, ecological, and educational assistance projects [2] Group 2 - The Shenyin Wanguo Public Welfare Foundation was established in July 2022, initiated by Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co., Ltd., Hongyuan Futures Co., Ltd., and Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd., with oversight from the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau [5] - The foundation's current focus includes supporting underprivileged individuals and families, conducting assistance services, and engaging in other public welfare projects [5] - The foundation adheres to the core values of "pragmatism and innovation" and aims to contribute to sustainable social development while actively participating in rural revitalization efforts [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As Iran's attitude hardens, the gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. However, market sentiment has significantly improved. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace talks is high, but the sentiment has eased, leading to a volatile trend in gold and silver prices [4][5] - The ongoing escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and rising expectations of interest rate hikes have caused gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro level [10][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The price of gold first rose and then fell as Iran's attitude hardened. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 2.30% to $4503.30 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price first rose and then fell. COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $71.44 per ounce [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.27, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3 kilograms to 1067463 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net long position increased, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is - 51, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 10171 kilograms to 376094 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net long position increased, which is bullish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 is held; the 14th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization is held, and the Minister of Commerce will attend - 17:00: European Central Bank Vice - President de Guindos and Governing Council member Muller speak, and the Norwegian Central Bank announces its interest rate decision - 17:30: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks - 20:30: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of March 21 is released - 00:00 the next day: Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Rogers speaks, and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor speaks in New York, USA - 00:30 the next day: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Greene speaks in Berlin - 03:00 the next day: The Mexican Central Bank announces its interest rate decision - 04:00 the next day: Federal Reserve Governor Cook talks about financial stability - 06:30 the next day: Federal Reserve Governor Milan talks about the balance sheet [16] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The gold price is affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, oil prices, interest rate hike expectations, and mid - term elections. The macro - level support still exists, but the price has continued to give back gains due to high oil prices and interest rate hike expectations [10] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is also affected by the US - Iran conflict, oil prices, and interest rate hike expectations. In addition, the photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game are also factors [15] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.87% to 159328, the short positions decreased by 0.82% to 43816, and the net long position decreased by 3.63% to 115512 [40] - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.84% to 250241, the short positions decreased by 3.03% to 238173, and the net long position increased by 1.22% to 12068 [43] - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position remained flat, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly [45][47] - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [49][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the TACO landed this week, the short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, but there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The current game pattern of fighting and talking has limited the upper limit of the full - scale escalation of the conflict, and the ground war is still in a vague state. The extreme pressure situation will continue in the short - term. The secondary inflation risk brought by the oil price shock is reversing the global liquidity expectation. The Fed's policy path has shifted from the initial interest - rate cut convergence to tightening divergence. The domestic A - shares are in the risk - release stage of peripheral risk transmission in the short - term, and the core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack [2]. - In the short - term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to follow the US dollar index for synchronous fluctuations, and there is no clear directional trend. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark [3]. - The short - term trend of the stock index is expected to be volatile, and the trading power of treasury bonds is insufficient. For the shipping index (European line) futures, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term [5][6][10]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are also in a wide - range fluctuation state [13][15]. - In the aluminum market, the core contradiction lies in the game between the "overseas supply contraction expectation" and the "domestic high - inventory reality". Copper's pressure level has moved up, zinc is mainly volatile, nickel - stainless steel is strong, tin's trend conversion is uncertain, and lead's overall trend is consistent with the sector [20][23][25][27][28][29]. - For oilseeds, hold the reverse spread between months. For oils and fats, the short - term trend is weak following the crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation [30][31]. - For energy and oil and gas, it is too early to trade the end of the conflict in the short - term. For fuel oil, wait patiently for short - selling opportunities, and for asphalt, wait for short - selling opportunities at the absolute price [35][36][38]. - For precious metals, maintain a strategic long - term bullish view, and regard the callback as an opportunity for medium - and long - term long - position layout [42][44]. - For pulp - offset paper, pulp can be traded in the range or wait and see in the short - term, and offset printing paper can try the high - short strategy. For pure benzene - styrene, they are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term. For LPG, it is in a neutral and volatile state, and the positive spread strategy can be adopted at low prices. For PP - propylene and plastics, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For rubber, synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range fluctuation, and natural rubber is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [46][48][51][54][56][62][63]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass is restricted by supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory [66][67]. - For black products, the short - term furnace charge is strong and volatile, driving the rebound of steel prices, but the rebound height is limited. Iron ore is event - driven, coking coal follows the energy expectation, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support [70][71][73][74]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, sell the call options of the main hog contract, cotton runs in the range, sugar is expected to be volatile in the short - term, sell the call options of the main egg contract, apples are in high - level adjustment, peanuts can be lightly short - sold, red dates are in a low - level volatile bottom - building state, and logs can be traded in the range [76][78][80][82][89][91][94][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The pricing of the global central bank's tightening transaction is approaching saturation. The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and the secondary inflation risk brought by the oil price shock is reversing the global liquidity expectation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate follows the US dollar index for synchronous fluctuations. Export enterprises can lock in forward foreign exchange settlement in batches at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark [3]. - **Stock Index**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is difficult to form a trend - like rise [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The trading power is insufficient, and the short - term grid operation idea can be maintained [6]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short - term, and the market focus is shifting from geopolitical risk premium to supply - demand fundamentals [7][8][9][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals is still stable [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the core contradiction is the imbalance between supply and demand [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The core contradiction lies in the game between the "overseas supply contraction expectation" and the "domestic high - inventory reality", and the internal and external markets show a differentiated and volatile pattern [17][18][19][20]. - **Copper**: The pressure level has moved up, and investors can consider selling options to protect existing positions [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It is mainly volatile, and interval operation can be tried [24][25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday trend is strong, and the new Indonesian policy may support the price [26][27]. - **Tin**: The trend conversion is uncertain, and it should be regarded as volatile in the short - term [28]. - **Lead**: The overall trend is consistent with the sector, and it is mainly volatile with interval operation [29]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: Hold the reverse spread between months. Pay attention to the Brazilian shipment and port clearance progress [30]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is weak following the crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiation [31]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: It is too early to trade the end of the conflict in the short - term, as there are differences in the conditions between the US and Iran [33][34][35]. - **Fuel Oil**: Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities, and the medium - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is still in a tight - balance state [36]. - **Asphalt**: The cracking may be strong, and wait for short - selling opportunities at the absolute price. Pay attention to position control [38]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a weak and volatile state. Maintain a strategic long - term bullish view and pay attention to position control [40][41][42]. - **Gold & Silver**: They maintain a volatile state. Maintain a strategic long - term bullish view, and the short - term rebound may be limited [43][44]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp can be traded in the range or wait and see in the short - term, and offset printing paper can try the high - short strategy [46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply reduction caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [47][48]. - **LPG**: It is in a neutral and volatile state, and the positive spread strategy can be adopted at low prices. Pay attention to the US - Iran negotiation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz [49][50][51]. - **PP - Propylene**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the short - term supply reduction provides fundamental support [52][53][54]. - **Plastics**: It is in a short - term weak and volatile state, and the short - term supply is expected to remain at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - **Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range fluctuation, and natural rubber is expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. Different strategies can be adopted for different types of rubber [57][62][63][64]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass is restricted by supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory [65][66][67]. Black Products - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term furnace charge is strong and volatile, driving the rebound of steel prices, but the rebound height is limited [68][69][70]. - **Iron Ore**: It is event - driven, with a "near - strong and far - weak" fundamental characteristic [71]. - **Coking Coal**: It follows the energy supply expectation and fluctuates widely, and its price is difficult to rise independently from the fundamentals [72][73]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They have cost support, and attention should be paid to the impact of the hurricane on the manganese ore production area [73][74]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The price is in a low - level volatile state, and sell the call options of the main contract [76]. - **Cotton**: It runs in the range. Pay attention to the USDA's new - year planting intention report and the downstream demand [77][78]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, considering the geopolitical situation and market sentiment [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a wide - range volatile state, and sell the call options of the main contract [81][82]. - **Apples**: They are in high - level adjustment, and the 05 contract is strongly supported in the short - term [89][90]. - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to continue to correct, and light short - selling can be considered [91][92][93]. - **Red Dates**: They are in a low - level volatile bottom - building state, and the price is under pressure due to the loose supply and demand [94]. - **Logs**: The price of 3 - meter timber has risen, and the futures price has bottom support. It can be traded in the range [95][96].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 26, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today due to the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices, the transition of the external crude oil market to a volatile state, neutral inventory levels, and the recovery of downstream demand [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - The official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation led to a short - term weakening of external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have made enterprises hesitant about restocking. The packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand due to price increases, and the pipe industry has low operating rates and orders. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8400 (-550), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -315, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 64.4 tons (+2.1), which is bearish [4] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] Main Positions - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectations - The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations [6] - Bearish factors: geopolitical factors [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - The official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation led to a short - term weakening of external crude oil, shifting from an uptrend to a volatile state. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic woven products has increased, but low production profits have reduced enterprises' willingness to start production. The operating rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8900 (-350), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -75, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 50.0 tons (-9.7), which is bullish [7] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] Main Positions - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectations - The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today [7] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations [8] - Bearish factors: geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 8400 (-550) - 05 contract price: 8715 (-203) - Basis: -315 (-347) - Warehouse receipt: 4652 (-14) - PE comprehensive factory inventory: 64.4 (+2.1) - PE social inventory: 60.7 (-1.2) [9] PP - Spot delivery product price: 8900 (-350) - 05 contract price: 8975 (-139) - Basis: -75 (-211) - Warehouse receipt: 13293 (-2434) - PP comprehensive factory inventory: 50.0 (-9.7) - PP social inventory: 28.5 (-2.2) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the documents [1][2][3] 2. Report Core Views Futures Index Spread Report - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various futures index spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios. [1] Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report - Displays the latest data on basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of Treasury bond futures such as TS, TF, T, and TL, along with their changes and percentiles since listing. [2] Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - Shows the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions. It also provides short - and medium - term investment views on precious metals. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Index Spread - **IF**: The latest E period - spot spread is - 87.47, with a change of - 1.14 from the previous day, and a 1 - year percentile of 1.20%. Various cross - period spreads are also presented, such as the next - month - to - current - month spread of - 17.80, with a change of 4.60 and a 1 - year percentile of 29.50%. [1] - **IH**: The H period - spot spread is - 29.53, down 9.28 from the previous day, and the 1 - year percentile is 3.60%. Different cross - period spreads are given, like the next - month - to - current - month spread of - 1.00, with a change of 4.60 and a 1 - year percentile of 59.00%. [1] - **IC**: The IC period - spot spread is - 237.67, a decrease of 49.89 from the previous day, and the 1 - year percentile is 0.80%. Multiple cross - period spreads are shown, for example, the next - month - to - current - month spread of - 63.80, with a change of 16.20 and a 1 - year percentile of 22.20%. [1] - **IM**: The IM period - spot spread is - 273.78, down 60.12 from the previous day, and the 1 - year percentile is 5.00%. Cross - period spreads are also included, such as the next - month - to - current - month spread of 47.10, with a change of 20.10 and a 1 - year percentile of - 55.60. [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 are 1.7119, with a change of 0.0141, and a 1 - year percentile of 82.30%. [1] Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.1768, up 0.0388 from the previous day, with a listing - since percentile of 8.80%. TF basis is 1.1019, up 0.0989, and the percentile is 25.70%. T basis is 1.1709, up 0.0144, and the percentile is 39.30%. TL basis is 0.6769, down 0.0236, and the percentile is 13.10%. [2] - **Cross - period Spreads**: For example, in TS, the current - quarter - to - next - quarter spread is - 0.0060, up 0.0060, and the percentile is 24.90%. [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: TS - TF is - 3.4150, up 0.0220, and the percentile is 17.80%. [2] Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2606 contract closed at 1013.96 yuan/gram on March 25, up 36.68 yuan or 3.75% from March 24. AG2606 contract closed at 18111 yuan/kilogram, up 1026 yuan or 6.01%. [3] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 4503.30, up 28.40 or 0.63%. COMEX silver remained unchanged at 71.45. [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 4505.31, up 33.29 or 0.74%. London silver was at 71.18, down 0.10 or - 0.14%. [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is 0.48, down 0.23, and the 1 - year percentile is 46.10%. [3] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 63.03, up 0.40 or 0.63%. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.33%, down 0.06 or - 1.4%. Dollar index is 99.63, up 0.40 or 0.41%. [3] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained unchanged at 106743. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 70802 to 31945633. [3] - **Investment Views**: In the short - term, gold may fall again. Buy call options around 4400 - 4450 dollars. Silver may rise if the US - Iran war eases, or fall back to 60 - 65 dollars if the situation escalates. Platinum fluctuates between 1850 - 2000 dollars, and palladium between 1450 - 1600 dollars. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Under the superposition of multiple positive factors, the methanol market is expected to maintain a strong short - term operation. Inland methanol is expected to remain firm, and the port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. The follow - up needs to focus on whether the US will withdraw troops from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. Once there are signs of the end of the war, the driving logic will change rapidly. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Methanol 2605: Fundamentally, with multiple positive factors, the short - term methanol market may maintain a strong operation. The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, but the olefin demand has increased significantly, and the futures have risen sharply, leading to an increase in buying sentiment, faster inventory removal of upstream methanol, and a tightening of import arrivals, with a rapid reduction in port inventory. The port market is expected to be strong this week. The current methanol has shown a leading trend in the chemical market. The follow - up needs to focus on the US withdrawal from the Middle East and the sustainability of MTO profits. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. As of March 19, 2026, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports decreased, and the tradable supply in coastal areas also decreased. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net long, and it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 oscillating between 3050 - 3200 yuan/ton [5] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long factors**: Some devices have stopped or reduced loads, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin; the methanol start - up in Iran is at a low level, and methanol imports are expected to continue to shrink in February; the methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced inventory, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6] - **Short factors**: The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries gradually stop for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port have stopped, significantly weakening the local demand; most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has weakened [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 688 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 379 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 3195 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 3089 yuan/ton. The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan is - 44 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 106 yuan/ton. The national weighted average start - up rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The inventory in East China ports is 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons from last week, and the inventory in South China ports is 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons from last week [8] - **Domestic methanol spot price**: The weekly decline in Jiangsu is 3.18%, Lunan remains unchanged, Hebei increases by 11.68%, Inner Mongolia increases by 1.72%, and Fujian decreases by 3.44% [9] - **Methanol basis**: The weekly decline in spot is 3.18%, the weekly decline in futures is 2.92%, and the weekly change in the basis is - 7 [11] - **Methanol production profit by process**: The weekly change in coal - based production profit is - 5, natural gas - based remains at - 40, and coke - oven gas - based increases by 557 [19] - **Domestic methanol enterprise load**: The national methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week, and the load in the northwest is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from last week [21] - **External methanol price and spread**: CFR China decreases by 7.79% this week, CFR Southeast Asia increases by 7.25%, and the spread decreases by 72 [24] - **Methanol import spread**: The weekly decline in spot is 0.16%, the weekly decline in import cost is 7.64%, and the import spread increases by 164 [27] - **Traditional downstream product prices of methanol**: Formaldehyde remains unchanged, dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and acetic acid increases by 12.12% [28] - **Production profit and load of traditional downstream products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreases by 127, the load increases by 0.01%; the production profit of dimethyl ether decreases by 405, the load increases by 1.45%; the production profit of acetic acid increases by 455, the load decreases by 1.29%; the production profit of MTO increases by 320, the load decreases by 2.27% [32][35][40][45] - **Methanol port inventory**: The inventory in East China ports is 51.07 tons, a decrease of 3.73 tons from last week, and the inventory in South China ports is 31.60 tons, a decrease of 1.66 tons from last week [47] - **Methanol warehouse receipts and effective forecasts**: The warehouse receipts decrease by 12.26%, and the effective forecasts increase by 231.29% [51] - **Methanol balance sheet**: It shows the production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand difference of methanol from November 2022 to October 2024 [53] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol device maintenance**: Multiple enterprises in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and corresponding production losses [54] - **Foreign methanol device operation**: Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or running stably, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [55] - **Olefin device operation**: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast regions are in normal operation, some are in maintenance, and some have uncertain restart times [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Glass production profit has been slightly restored, cold repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level; downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the drag of the real estate industry, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period; the overall situation is bearish. The cost side has increased, and it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that although the macro - sentiment boosts and glass supply is low, downstream deep - processing factory orders are weak and glass factory inventory is high, so it is expected that glass will mainly have a wide - range fluctuating operation [4]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1057 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.66%; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board is 960 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.41%; the main basis is - 97 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.00% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 960 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - Glass production profit is at a low level, and production has declined [3]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 207, with an operating rate of 70.41%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period; the daily melting volume is 145,800 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low in the same period [16][18]. Fundamental - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [22]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 74.436 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][37]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [38].