1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, with political uncertainties rising in Europe and Japan and the dollar strengthening. The Fed may slow down the pace of interest - rate cuts from December to the first quarter of next year. Domestically, the bond market is in an overall volatile state. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the situation of government bond supply are key factors affecting the bond market. In November, bond trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Directory PART1: Overseas Fed Interest - Rate Cut Dispute, Domestic Bond Market Overall Volatile 1.1 Overseas - In October, the US government shutdown, lack of macro data, and resurgence of trade frictions led to low - level volatility of US bond yields. Political uncertainties in Europe and Japan increased, causing the dollar index to rebound, and the euro and yen to depreciate against the dollar. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the December policy decision. It is expected that from December to the first quarter of next year, inflation transmission may strengthen, and the Fed may slow down the interest - rate cut pace [7][10] 1.2 Domestic - **Fundamentals and Bond Market**: High - frequency data shows that the fundamental data in October still needs improvement, and the capital market remains generally loose. The bond market declined in an overall volatile manner, mainly due to the Sino - US tariff game and the central bank's announcement to restart treasury bond trading [2][17] - **Institutional Behavior** - **Leverage Ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio fluctuated at a low level [19] - **Allocation Disk**: Large banks continued to buy short - term treasury bonds, while insurance companies reduced their allocation of ultra - long - term bonds [21][23] - **Trading Disk**: Rural commercial banks continued to reduce duration, while funds increased duration and added credit bonds [26] - **Wealth Management**: The scale and bond - allocation strength of wealth management products were better than seasonal trends, mainly increasing the allocation of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [34][35] PART2: How to Understand the Central Bank's Restart of Treasury Bond Trading? 2.1 Three Backgrounds for the Central Bank to Restart Treasury Bond Trading - It is an implementation of the requirements of the Fourth Plenary Session to ensure the annual stable - growth target. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has risen by about 30BP this year, and the current interest - rate level is within the range mentioned by regulators. As of the end of October, the combined scale of outright reverse repos and MLF is at a historically high level, so the central bank needs to inject long - term liquidity [38] 2.2 Market Pricing of the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading in 2024 - In 2024, against the backdrop of a bull market, the central bank bought short - term bonds and sold long - term bonds. The market was mainly concerned about the impact of regulatory bond sales on the bull market, resulting in a deeper inversion of short - term and funding interest rates and upward fluctuations in long - term yields [41] 2.3 Current Situation of Large Banks - Since June this year, large banks have significantly increased their secondary - market purchases of treasury bonds, with net purchases of short - term treasury bonds within 3 years reaching about 1.3 trillion yuan. The scale of purchases of 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds by large banks expanded in August - September, totaling 163.3 billion yuan. The downward space for short - term yields may be less than last year [45] 2.4 Points to Note - In the medium term, treasury bond trading is a long - term liquidity injection tool with the function of adjusting the yield curve. The differences between the central bank's bond - buying and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are reflected in four aspects: liquidity improvement, monetary - policy space, impact on banks, and impact on the bond market. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the scale and maturity distribution of the central bank's bond - buying, changes in funding interest rates and inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and whether there will be further overall loosening [48] PART3: Bond Market Strategy 3.1 Trading Strategy in November - In November, trading should be based on a volatile and bullish mindset, paying attention to fundamental data and stock market changes. After the official release of the new regulations on public - fund fees, the downward trend may be smoother. Bullish factors include the pending implementation of the central bank's bond - buying and the possibility of another interest - rate cut this year. Bearish factors include the expected high supply of government bonds from November to December and the uncertainty of the new regulations on public - fund fees [4][52] 3.2 Structural Opportunities - Further attention can be paid to the opportunities of the central bank's potential purchases of treasury bonds within 5 years, the spread - compression opportunities of ultra - long - term treasury bonds, and the opportunities of credit - bond investment with medium - short duration and credit - risk sinking, especially urban investment bonds and financial bonds [4][55]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is expected to consolidate in a lower trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 per ounce due to concerns over the uncertain outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts and buying demand [1] - After this consolidation phase, the average gold price may reach above $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are declining due to expectations of oversupply, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 when demand typically weakens [2] - The oil market may face a significant oversupply situation next year unless there are supply disruptions caused by sanctions [2] Group 3: Euro and Pound Analysis - The euro is expected to rebound supported by a strong economic fundamental in the Eurozone, with forecasts suggesting EUR/USD could rise to 1.20 in Q4 2023 and 1.26 by Q3 2026 [3] - The British pound may weaken further if the Bank of England cuts rates in December, with expectations for EUR/GBP to rise to 0.89 in Q1 2026 and 0.90 in Q2 2026 [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the easing cycle may have ended, with inflation risks remaining high [5] - The cash rate is likely to stay at 3.6% as inflation levels pose challenges to previous narratives of slowing inflation [5] Group 5: Domestic Market Insights - The resumption of government bond trading in October is not expected to affect the anticipated reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [6] - The current environment supports the resumption of bond trading, which may enhance long-term liquidity for banks [6] Group 6: Dollar Index and Economic Projections - The dollar index has surpassed 100, but the current movement is viewed as a rebound rather than the start of a new appreciation cycle [7] - The market is pricing in a greater likelihood of no rate cuts in December, which could lead to significant adjustments in future policy expectations [7] Group 7: Gold Tax Policy Impact - The new gold tax policy is expected to influence the behavior of three types of market participants, encouraging on-exchange trading and potentially increasing costs for downstream businesses [8] - The policy clarifies the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, impacting how transactions are reported [8] Group 8: Copper Market Dynamics - A downward trend in supply is emerging, with major copper mining companies expected to see a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production by Q3 2025 [9] - The combination of raw material shortages and stable demand may lead to a significant supply gap in the global refined copper market, with LME copper prices projected to exceed $10,000 per ton [9]

周三，全球股市遭遇抛售潮，市场避险情绪升温，推动债券价格走高。美国国债全期限品种均上涨，推 动基准10年期美债收益率跌至一周低点。此前，科技股估值高企引发的担忧已冲击全球股指。澳大利亚 和新西兰同期国债收益率同样下跌，日本同期国债收益率也小幅走低。 随着科技股高估值引发的担忧冲击全球股指，被誉为全球最安全资产的美国国债前景已成为市场关注焦 点。摩根士丹利的泰德·皮克、高盛集团的戴维·所罗门等华尔街高管均警告股市可能进一步下跌，策略 师们正思考规模达73万亿美元的债券市场是否有进一步上涨的空间。 星展银行(DBS Bank)认为，若股市继续下跌，美国10年期国债收益率可能从当前的约4.07%降至3.8%;道 明证券(TD Securities)则预测，到2026年末，该基准收益率将跌至3.50%。 分析师马克·克兰菲尔德写道，"宏观交易员正趁还能兑现时了结获利头寸，以弥补人工智能相关股票主 题快速退潮带来的损失，且这种情况可能还会持续。" 道明证券高级利率策略师普拉尚特·纽纳哈表示："企业高管对估值和资本支出的警告已引发关注。再加 上美国政府停摆、数据疲软以及流动性稀薄，这些因素共同构成了避险模式延续的条件—— ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed the operation of government bond trading tools, marking a significant shift in monetary policy aimed at stabilizing the bond market and ensuring smooth transmission of monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - In November, the PBOC achieved a net liquidity injection of 20 billion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and 400 billion yuan through reverse repos [1]. - The resumption of government bond trading is a strategic move to enhance liquidity management and improve the effectiveness of the government bond yield curve [1]. - The PBOC had previously suspended government bond trading in early 2023 due to market imbalances and accumulated risks, but after nearly 10 months, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen to around 1.8% [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions reflect a dual objective of maintaining liquidity and stabilizing market expectations, with the relatively low net purchase of 20 billion yuan indicating a cautious approach [2]. - The PBOC plans to conduct a fixed quantity, interest rate tendering, and multi-price bidding for a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation, which is expected to be a continuation of previous operations [2]. - Future monetary policy may involve a combination of MLF, reverse repos, and government bond trading to maintain a balance between risk prevention and expectation stabilization, with an overall stable liquidity environment anticipated [2].

Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1][2] - In October 2025, the central bank's liquidity injection included a net investment of 200 billion yuan in government bonds, 4 billion yuan in reverse repos, and 2 billion yuan in medium-term lending facilities [2] Stock Market and New Accounts - In October 2025, A-share new accounts totaled 2.3099 million, a decrease of 21.36% from September and a 66.26% drop year-on-year [2] Commodity Futures and Trading Fees - Starting November 10, 2025, trading fees for aluminum alloy futures and printing paper futures will be adjusted to 0.0005 of the transaction amount, with no fees for intraday closing positions [3] Automotive Industry - In October 2025, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.61 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 7% [2] Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals - The negotiation for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List has concluded, with a new drug list set to be released in December 2025 and implemented on January 1, 2026 [5] - The global innovative drug market is projected to grow from $1.1 trillion in 2024 to $1.5 trillion by 2030, with significant market opportunities for Chinese innovative drugs [5] Technology and Electronics - Nintendo has raised its sales forecast for the Switch 2 to 19 million units by March 2026, reflecting strong market demand [6] - The consumer electronics industry is expected to grow, driven by AI technology and stable demand in various regions [6] Investment and Financing - In the fourth quarter of 2025, equity ETFs have attracted over 100 billion yuan in net subscriptions, indicating strong investor interest [10]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce responded to ASML's announcement of halting wafer supply to ASML (China), which disrupts the global semiconductor supply chain, stating that the Dutch side should bear full responsibility [2] - The State Council announced the holiday schedule for 2026, including New Year's Day, Spring Festival, Labor Day, and National Day [2] Group 2 - President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, emphasizing the need to expand mutual investment and explore cooperation in traditional and emerging sectors such as AI and green development [3] - The Central Financial Office's head met with Goldman Sachs' CEO, discussing the importance of implementing agreements to stabilize China-US economic relations [3] - The People's Bank of China reported a net injection of 20 billion yuan in government bonds, indicating a restoration of liquidity measures [3] - China's service trade import and export totaled 59,362.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [3] Group 3 - The Vice Chairman of the CSRC announced plans for more open measures to enhance the efficiency of overseas listings and support the inclusion of various financial instruments in Hong Kong's stock market [4] - Public fund performance benchmarks have been categorized to encourage equity investment, with a focus on high-recognition stock indices [4] - A-shares experienced a decline with over 3,600 stocks falling, while local stocks in Fujian surged [4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.79%, with significant declines in sectors like AI and renewable energy [4] Group 4 - In October, A-share new account openings dropped by 66% year-on-year, while the total for the first ten months increased by 11% [5] - Southbound funds have significantly increased their positions in the Hong Kong market, with a record net inflow of over 1.27 trillion HKD this year [5] - Major foreign institutions have conducted research on 309 A-share companies, focusing on high-growth sectors [5] Group 5 - Brokerages are optimistic about the Hong Kong market in 2026, with expectations of improved fundamentals driving further growth [6] - The STAR Market has seen over 590 companies listed, raising over 900 billion yuan, with significant revenue growth reported [6] - Leap Motor denied rumors of being acquired by FAW Group, clarifying that the reports were false [6] Group 6 - The recent negotiations for the 2025 drug catalog concluded, with significant price reductions discussed for innovative drugs [9] - Five departments issued guidelines to promote the application of AI in healthcare across various sectors [9] - In October, China's wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.61 million units, marking a 16% year-on-year increase [9] Group 7 - The storage supply shortage continues, with several companies receiving additional orders and planning price increases [10] - BlackRock's CEO discussed the future of finance involving digital assets and blockchain technology at an investment summit [11] Group 8 - Tesla's CEO faces opposition regarding his compensation plan from major shareholders, raising concerns about his future with the company [12] - Ele.me is rebranding to "Taobao Flash Purchase," transitioning from a standalone delivery platform to an instant retail service [12] - XPeng Motors is restarting its Robotaxi project in anticipation of L4 vehicle production next year [12] Group 9 - Starbucks announced a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to jointly operate its retail business in China, valuing the joint venture at approximately 4 billion USD [13] Group 10 - The US government shutdown has reached its 35th day, tying the record for the longest shutdown in history [14] - Japan's government is prioritizing investments in strategic sectors, including AI and semiconductors [14] - South Korea's budget for 2026 is set to increase by 8.1%, with significant allocations for AI transformation [15]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months, indicating a loose monetary policy approach [2] - On the same day, the PBOC conducted a 1,175 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4,753 billion yuan in reverse repos [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a "long-short combination" liquidity management strategy, aiming to stabilize market liquidity expectations while providing support for year-end liquidity management [2] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open market treasury transactions, indicating a gradual restoration of treasury transactions as a regular liquidity adjustment tool [2] - The PBOC's Deputy Governor Lu Lei emphasized the importance of adjusting policy support based on domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary policy tools [2] - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the liquidity gap is expected to narrow to around 100 billion yuan in November, with low volatility in funding rates anticipated due to the PBOC's recent resumption of treasury transactions [3] Group 3 - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted the need to optimize the basic currency issuance mechanism and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates in a recent article [3] - The focus is on enhancing the role of policy interest rates and narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor to improve the transmission of monetary policy to market rates [3]

Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - The financial market experienced an unusual reaction in late October, with gold prices rising despite positive trade developments between China and the U.S. [1][3] - Gold prices surged over 3% within three trading days following the trade announcement, breaking the $2900 per ounce mark, contrary to traditional expectations [3][5] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to its role as a warning signal regarding potential risks in the monetary credit system, rather than just geopolitical tensions [5][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced an unexpected early termination of its balance sheet reduction, moving the date from January 2026 to December 2025, indicating rising liquidity pressures in the market [9][11] - The reduction in bank reserves, which fell to $2.93 trillion in October, approached the Fed's lower threshold of $2.5-3 trillion, prompting the decision to halt the balance sheet reduction [11][13] - The Fed's actions reflect lessons learned from past financial crises, aiming to prevent a repeat of liquidity issues experienced in 2019 [13][15] Group 3: Financial System Vulnerabilities - The tightening liquidity environment has exposed vulnerabilities within the financial system, with rising non-performing loan rates among regional banks [15][17] - The U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of short-term debt to cover fiscal deficits has further strained bank reserves, contributing to a cycle of rising financing costs and reduced risk tolerance among smaller banks [17][19] - The Fed's strategy to shift funds from mortgage-backed securities to short-term Treasury bonds aims to enhance the stability of the financial system while preparing for potential future liquidity needs [19][21] Group 4: Global Market Implications - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction has provided relief to emerging markets, with a decrease in the dollar index and a narrowing of dollar bond spreads [21][23] - However, commodity markets have shown mixed reactions, with gold prices rising due to ongoing demand for currency credit hedging, while oil and industrial metals remain under pressure from weak global economic recovery expectations [21][25] - The ongoing adjustments in monetary policy and market dynamics suggest a need for investors to focus on long-term trends amidst short-term volatility [25]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed the operation of buying and selling government bonds, which is expected to support the real economy and stabilize market expectations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - As of November 4, 2023, the PBOC reported a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open market government bond transactions, indicating the resumption of operations that were paused since January [1][4]. - The PBOC's liquidity tools include various instruments, with a notable net injection of 200 billion yuan in government bonds, while other tools like the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) saw a net injection of 2000 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Signals - The current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.8%, and the overall bond market is performing well, which supports the decision to resume bond transactions [4]. - The resumption of government bond transactions is seen as a signal to stabilize economic growth, particularly for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [4]. Group 3: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 5, the PBOC will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a three-month term, maintaining liquidity in the banking system [5]. - The continuation of reverse repo operations is aimed at injecting medium-term liquidity into the market, with expectations of further operations in November [5].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a shift in the bond market from headwinds to tailwinds, with a continued bullish outlook for November [1] - In 2025, the bond market is expected to rely heavily on increased allocations from bank proprietary trading, with a total bond market balance increasing by 16.4 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [2] - Government bonds accounted for a significant portion of this increase, with an increment of 11.4 trillion yuan, while financial bonds increased by 3.0 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the growth rate of bond investments by banks has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1% for the four major banks and 17.5% for smaller banks as of September [2] - The report notes that the demand for credit remains weak, leading banks to focus on bond investments as a primary driver for asset scale expansion [2] - The report anticipates that conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be in place, supported by a decline in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks [2] Group 3 - Non-bank institutions are reported to have low bond positions and shorter durations, with a potential increase in bond market sentiment as the central bank resumes government bond trading [2] - The report suggests that there is potential for significant allocation of credit bonds by wealth management products, estimating a potential increase of several trillion yuan [2] - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield may return to around 1.65% by the end of the year, with a bullish outlook for the bond market continuing into November [2][3]