Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a new digital RMB framework and the continuation of proactive fiscal policies in 2026, aimed at enhancing financial support for economic growth [9][5]. Group 1: Digital RMB Framework - The new digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will officially be implemented on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The People's Bank of China has validated the feasibility and reliability of the digital RMB through over six years of research and four years of pilot programs, establishing a dual-layer operational structure involving the central bank and commercial financial institutions [10]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding the fiscal expenditure envelope to ensure necessary spending [5][12]. - Key measures include optimizing the government bond tool mix, enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds, and improving the structure of expenditures to support key areas [12]. Group 3: Cross-Border Financing - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notification to facilitate domestic enterprises in raising funds efficiently in overseas financial markets, including unifying foreign currency fund management policies and simplifying management procedures [10][11]. - The notification aims to reduce cross-border financing costs and enhance financial flexibility for enterprises, promoting the internationalization of the RMB [11]. Group 4: Real Estate Policy - Beijing has adjusted its real estate policies to relax purchasing restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children, allowing them to buy additional properties under certain conditions [15]. - This policy aligns with the central government's economic directives and aims to stimulate real estate market activity [15]. Group 5: Market Measures - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, with an estimated total reduction exceeding 1.9 billion yuan, aimed at lowering costs for listed companies and investors [16]. - These measures are intended to enhance market liquidity and support the real economy by reducing transaction costs [16][17]. Group 6: Currency Exchange Rate - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed the 7 yuan mark against the US dollar, reflecting a combination of external pressures easing and internal economic resilience [18]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the US dollar, particularly in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [18].

智通财经APP获悉，对冲日元兑美元汇率风险的需求正在上升，这或许是日本利率上行开始影响套利交易的第一个信号。在日本央行12月加息并 暗示未来仍可能进一步收紧货币政策之后，日本利率已升至数十年来高位——日本五年期国债收益率升至约1.5%，这是2008年以来未曾见过的水 平。尽管名义利率已经上升，但盈亏平衡通胀预期也同步上行，这意味着日本的实际利率仍然处于深度负值区间。 远期利率 五年期日元远期利率目前仍处于关键水平，暗示突破可能迫在眉睫。如果隔夜利率之间的利差持续收窄，可能会对远期利率施加更大压力，促使 其进一步压缩。 总体而言，要使日本的实际利率转为正值，五年期名义利率需要升至约2.5%以上，这一水平相当于假设的盈亏平衡通胀率，也是当前名义利率与 实际利率之间的差值。这意味着，如果日本央行最终目标是将利率推升至正区间，日本五年期利率在未来几个月可能仍需要显著上行。 更高的日本五年期利率将意味着美日利差将明显收窄，除非美国利率与日本利率同步上升、甚至上升得更快。但鉴于市场预计美联储将在2026年 降息，美国利率上行速度快于日本的可能性似乎并不大。 最终，这一趋势是否持续，很大程度上取决于日元能否相对美元走强。尽 ...

Core Insights - The article presents a forecast for the financial market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of adjusting investment strategies in light of ongoing market trends and economic conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Emphasis on the unprecedented low interest rate environment and the importance of quality equity investments [3][4]. - Investors are advised to avoid the temptation of quick profits and to extend their investment horizons [5]. - The article highlights the cyclical nature of markets, suggesting that after a prolonged bull market, a period of consolidation or correction is likely [5]. Group 2: Key Trends for 2026 - The end of the global interest rate reduction cycle is anticipated, with varying impacts on stocks, bonds, and currencies [8][20]. - De-globalization remains a dominant trend, with fiscal policies being a common response to this phenomenon [9][30]. - The A-share market is expected to focus on relative value within asset classes, with a significant wave of fixed income products emerging [10][38]. - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to show increasing valuation advantages [11][60]. - The financial industry is expected to experience accelerated differentiation and consolidation [12][68]. - The wealth management sector is entering a new era of diversified asset allocation [13][71]. - The AI sector is entering a phase of significant differentiation, with a focus on who can build effective ecosystems [14][81]. - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to continue, impacting investment strategies [15][90]. - A new era of outbound investment for Chinese companies is emerging, driven by global supply chain restructuring [16][94]. - Two significant trends are identified: accelerated asset securitization by local governments and societal K-shaped economic divergence [17][101]. Group 3: Market Implications - The anticipated end of the interest rate reduction cycle suggests that the valuation uplift from declining rates will slow, making profit-driven sectors more critical [26][25]. - The article discusses the expected impacts on various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and bonds, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in investment positions [27][28][29]. - The A-share market is seen as a critical area for investment, with a focus on its relative value compared to other asset classes [43][48]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the core role of the stock market in economic development and its potential as a wealth reservoir [49][50].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In November, the total profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was -13.1%, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points from the previous value, marking two consecutive months of decline[10] - The cumulative profit growth rate for industrial enterprises from January to November was 0.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous value[10] - The average recovery period for accounts receivable increased to 70.4 days in November, up 3.7 days year-on-year, indicating a decline in asset turnover efficiency[15] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Dynamics - The operating revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises from January to November was 1.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[11] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.29%, down 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, with a profit growth rate of -2.04%[12] - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 85.5 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.19%[12] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The profit growth rate for the raw materials manufacturing sector was 16.6% from January to November, contributing 2.0 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[16] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 10.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the average industrial profit growth rate[19] - The aerospace and intelligent consumer equipment sectors showed notable profit increases, with profits in the semiconductor equipment sector rising by 97.2%[19] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Focus - The economic fundamentals are showing signs of a phase of slowdown, with expectations of continued marginal profit decline in industrial enterprises[20] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is shifting towards stimulating investment and managing low inflation, as indicated by recent policy discussions[20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | USD | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [26] 2. Core Views of the Report - Christmas holiday led to thin trading in overseas markets, but risk appetite moderately rebounded. US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, and the employment market remained resilient. In China, short-term macro negatives were limited, and the Beijing real estate policy boosted the market [5]. - Global equity markets generally rose, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. The USD index weakened, while the RMB appreciated. Global commodity markets were strong, especially precious metals and non-ferrous metals [7][8][10][24]. - US stocks are expected to oscillate higher due to strong Q3 GDP and positive year - end seasonality. A - shares are likely to have a positive and oscillating trend, supported by the Beijing real estate policy. Treasuries are expected to strengthen, with long - term bonds likely to outperform short - term ones [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Overseas: Christmas trading was thin, but risk preference rose. US Q3 GDP far exceeded expectations, driven by consumer spending. The employment market remained resilient, and the political pressure on the Fed increased. The market was optimistic about future liquidity, and the metal sector rose sharply [5]. - Domestic: Short - term macro negatives were limited. The Beijing real estate policy boosted the market, and various hot topics performed well. The stock market is expected to oscillate positively [5]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Global equity markets generally rose. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.51%, etc. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose 3.1%, etc. MSCI indices also rose, with emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [7][8]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The USD index weakened by 0.69% to 98. The RMB appreciated by 0.46% against the USD, reaching below 7.01. Other major currencies also showed different trends, with some appreciating and some depreciating [10][11]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global 10 - year government bond yields fluctuated narrowly. In developed countries, US bond yields fell 2bp to 4.14%, while Japanese bond yields rose 2bp. In emerging markets, Chinese bond yields rose 1bp to 1.84% [14][15]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market was strong, with the spot market oscillating at a high level and the futures index rebounding. Energy prices were weak, while the metal sector was strong. Gold and silver rose significantly, with silver rising over 18% [20][24]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is rated as oscillating. Overseas silver short - squeeze trading is nearing the end, increasing the risk of a decline and dragging down gold. The actual interest rate slightly rose, the USD index oscillated, and the RMB appreciated. The internal - external price difference of gold increased without a one - sided trend. The speculative position data of Comex gold futures was lagging, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly increased. The silver price short - squeeze may be ending, and attention should be paid to the decline risk [26][32][38]. 3.3.2 USD - The USD is rated as bearish. Although the US GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, it will not change the interest - rate cut rhythm, so the USD is expected to continue to decline [26]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are rated as oscillating. The Q3 GDP data supported market risk preference, and the market volatility decreased. The year - end seasonality of US stocks is strong, and they are expected to oscillate higher [26][43][50]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are rated as oscillating. Short - term macro negatives are limited, and the Beijing real estate policy boosts the market. The market is expected to have a positive and oscillating trend, and long positions in stock indices can be held [26][51][54]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are rated as oscillating. With fewer trading days next week, institutional behavior will be more stable, and the weak manufacturing PMI may drive the bond market to strengthen. Long - term bonds are expected to outperform short - term ones [26][60]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - GDPNow model estimates Q4 growth at 2.97%, and the red - book retail sales increased by 7.2% year - on - year. Oil prices were weak, and inflation expectations fell. Unemployment benefit claims remained high, and the employment market continued to cool but remained resilient [76]. - Bank reserves were 2.93 trillion, TGA account balance rose to 861.4 billion, and overnight reverse repurchase scale rose to 20.03 billion. High - yield corporate bond credit spreads slightly declined, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations cooled slightly. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January rose to 82.3%, and 2 interest - rate cuts are expected in 2026 [83]. - November's non - farm data was mixed. New employment was better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. CPI and core inflation decreased, and the pressure on core inflation further eased [86]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - Beijing issued real - estate policies to stimulate demand, but the policy strength is still weak, and the support for housing prices is limited [87]. - In November, economic indicators showed a weakening trend in total volume, with a supply - strong and demand - weak structure. Investment and social retail sales declined, while industrial production was relatively stable [97]. - In November, credit data continued to be weak, and private - sector financing willingness was low. Government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while non - standard and corporate bonds supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. M1 and M2 growth rates declined [99]. - In November, CPI and PPI showed a K - shaped divergence. CPI was in line with expectations and trended upward, while PPI was weaker than expected. Food prices supported CPI, while tourism, oil prices, and rent dragged it down. PPI was suppressed by "anti - involution" and input factors [108]. - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, while imports increased by 1.9%, slightly lower than expectations. In the future, exports are expected to remain resilient [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, expand fiscal spending, and optimize the government bond tool portfolio [2][14]. - The profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises from January to November has slowed down, but the growth trend since August continues, and new kinetic energy industries are growing rapidly [2][14]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals have risen collectively, with many varieties hitting new highs, while the price of palladium futures has fallen [3]. - The Baltic countries' natural gas reserves are extremely low, which may lead to supply problems during the cold season [9]. - The acquisition of autumn grains this year is at a record - high level, and the grain output has increased, mainly driven by the increase in corn production [10]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile by the end of the year, and the direction of the market depends on policies and supply [21][22]. - The A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities, and the cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [33][35]. Summary by Directory Macro Data Quick View - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, the new social financing scale was 24885.00 billion yuan, compared with 8161.00 billion yuan in the previous month and 23288.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month [1]. - In November 2025, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The 2026 fiscal work will focus on six key tasks, including boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas, and promoting employment [2][14]. - From January to November, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, but the profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [2][14]. - On December 26, 30 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose, with platinum futures hitting the daily limit, and palladium futures falling [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for platinum and palladium futures during the New Year's Day holiday [3]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, and the silver price may continue to rise [4]. Metals - The price of silver has risen sharply, with the international spot silver price breaking through $82 per ounce [5]. - Gold, silver, and platinum prices hit new highs on December 26, supported by geopolitical risks and a weak dollar [5]. - The price of gold jewelry has exceeded 1400 yuan, and the gold recycling market has shown a "polarized" situation [5]. - Several lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have announced production shutdowns for maintenance due to equipment maintenance and cost pressures [6]. - The CME will raise the margin requirements for gold, silver, and lithium futures after the close on December 29 [6]. - The price of silver has increased by 175% this year, and there are concerns about its impact on industrial development and potential price corrections [6]. - As of December 26, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.27% to 1071.13 tons [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's state - owned copper company and a lithium giant will merge their subsidiaries to develop lithium in the Atacama Salt Flats [8]. Energy and Chemicals - As of December 28, Xinjiang Oilfield's carbon dioxide injection exceeded 1 million tons, marking a key step in the large - scale application of CCUS technology [9]. - The natural gas reserves in the Baltic countries are extremely low, which may cause supply problems during the cold season [9]. Agricultural Products - As of now, the purchase of autumn grains has exceeded 200 million tons, 32 million tons more than the same period last year [10]. - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion catties, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, mainly driven by corn production [10]. - The South American soybean growing area has received good rainfall, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. The production of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 25 decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, and exports increased by 1.6% month - on - month [11]. - The prices of rice and eggs in Japan have reached record highs [11]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market [12]. - On December 26, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders, with a total winning amount of 210 billion yuan [12]. - On December 26, the central bank conducted 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [12]. Important News - The 2026 National Two Sessions will be held in March, and the review of the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft is on the agenda of the National People's Congress [13][15]. - The National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a new version of the Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [15]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", aiming to maintain financial stability and create a suitable monetary and financial environment [17]. - The central bank will pay close attention to the real estate market and promote its stable and healthy development [18]. - The China National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects in key areas [18]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has launched the full - island customs closure operation, and relevant policies have achieved initial results [18]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration will promote cross - border corporate currency integration funds pool business nationwide [19]. - Hong Kong's economy is expected to maintain a good momentum in 2026 [19]. - The issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds this year has reached 2.26 trillion yuan [19]. - The first industrial plant REITs project in the inter - institutional market has been listed [19]. - Vanke's second 3.7 billion yuan bond extension plan has not been approved [20]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market has warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and treasury bond futures rising [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while industrial and financial bonds generally fell [22]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.04%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.23% [22]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and short - term Shibor rates mostly rose [23]. - Most bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - silver repurchase fixed - rate bonds fell [23][24]. - Most US Treasury yields fell, except for the 30 - year yield [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0085, down 19 points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.12%, and major non - US currencies showed mixed performance [26]. Research Report Highlights - In 2025, the bond market was a typical "sideways market", and investors faced challenges in a low - interest - rate environment [27]. - The steel industry may see continued improvement in supply and demand in 2026, and steel bond investment should focus on central and state - owned enterprises [27]. - Since mid - November, long - term bonds, especially ultra - long - term bonds, have been significantly adjusted, possibly due to banks' end - of - year duration constraints [28]. - The risk of systemic default of weak - region urban investment bonds in 2027 is limited, but there are valuation and liquidity risks [29]. - The issuance scale and duration of government bonds have increased this year, and the supply pressure on long - term bonds will remain high in 2026 [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the RMB may appreciate moderately in 2026, but one - sided bets should be avoided [29]. - Ultra - long - term bonds have certain allocation value in the long run [30]. Today's Reminders - On December 29, 210 bonds will be listed, 61 bonds will be issued, and 459 bonds will pay principal and interest [31][32]. Stock Market News - In the last three trading days of 2025, the A - share market is expected to be a volatile market with structural opportunities [33]. - In 2025, there were 528 double - digit stocks in the A - share market, mainly AI and merger - concept stocks [33]. - As of December 26, the highest return of public active equity funds reached 236.88%, and 72 funds had returns exceeding 100% [34]. - The A - share private placement market has recovered in 2025, with public and private funds investing over 41 billion yuan and achieving high floating profit ratios [34]. - Since 2025, the enthusiasm of A - share companies to list in Hong Kong has increased, and the "A + H" dual - listing model has seen explosive growth [35]. - The cycle sector, especially non - ferrous metals, has strong growth momentum in 2025 and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [35].

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 930 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on December 26, resulting in a net injection of 368 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 562 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - A total of 622.7 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, with significant amounts maturing on specific days [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintains a stable and slightly loose funding condition, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing and remaining below 1.26%, while the D R007 increased by about 4 basis points due to year-end factors [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.66% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, unchanged from the previous day [6] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.36%, the 10-year by 0.10%, the 5-year by 0.05%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [10] Fiscal Policy Developments - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds [11] - A new guideline was issued to strengthen the role of government financing guarantee systems in supporting employment and entrepreneurship, particularly for labor-intensive small and micro enterprises [11] Financial Sector Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets of financial institutions in China reached 531.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with the banking sector's assets at 474.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% [11] Investment Fund Initiatives - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, with regional funds established in key areas to attract diverse investments and support innovative enterprises in strategic emerging industries [12] Global Economic Insights - Japan's government approved a preliminary budget for FY 2026, with total general account expenditures reaching 122.3092 trillion yen, marking a historical high due to rising costs and increased tax revenues [14]

Core Viewpoint - The "Sanya Financial International Forum and the Fifth Sanya Wealth Management Conference" emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach to build a financial hub in Sanya, leveraging international experiences from cities like Hong Kong, Dubai, and Singapore [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Infrastructure - Sanya's financial assets are approximately 20 trillion yuan, primarily dominated by traditional banking institutions [3][5]. - The establishment of a modern financial hub requires robust infrastructure, including data centers, disaster recovery centers, anti-money laundering systems, and credit systems [5][6]. - The development of professional intermediary services, such as accounting and legal services, is essential for a thriving financial environment [6][8]. Group 2: Capital Support - Recommendations for capital support include deepening the "Dual Q" (QDLP/QFII) mechanism to enhance wealth management channels [3][6]. - Optimizing EF accounts to facilitate limited onshore and offshore RMB transactions is crucial [7]. - Utilizing Hong Kong's financing market for bond issuance and syndicate loans in sectors like deep-sea, aerospace, and agriculture is advised [7][8]. Group 3: Human Capital - The need to break geographical and age restrictions in talent acquisition is highlighted, suggesting flexible hiring methods such as remote consulting and short-term project collaborations [7][8]. - The importance of a motivating mechanism to enhance workforce productivity is emphasized [8]. Group 4: Policy Framework - Transitioning from a "dual 15%" tax advantage to a stable, transparent, and predictable regulatory framework is recommended [8][9]. - Enhancing international commercial arbitration in Sanya is also suggested to improve the policy environment [8]. Group 5: Industry Development - Sanya's financial sector should align with the broader industrial development strategy, focusing on five key areas: agriculture, marine economy, aerospace, digital economy, and green economy [8][9]. - The integration of financial services with these industries is essential for sustainable growth [9]. Group 6: International Experience - Successful financial hubs like Dubai, Luxembourg, and Singapore provide valuable lessons in regulatory frameworks, infrastructure development, and industry integration [10][11]. - Sanya is encouraged to adopt bold institutional innovations and learn from the experiences of these international examples to accelerate its financial hub development [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.05bp to 1.8355% from 1.835% last Friday. The yield fluctuated during the week due to various factors such as LPR expectations, government bond issuance concerns, and policy news [1][11]. - Five factors affect the super - reserve ratio. In January 2026, foreign exchange funds are expected to decrease by about 63 billion yuan; the central bank is expected to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through various means and there is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut; fiscal deposits are expected to increase by about 62 billion yuan; M0 is expected to increase by about 78 billion yuan; and required deposit reserves are expected to increase by about 50 billion yuan. The liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, which can be adjusted through open - market operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts [15][16][21]. - In the bond market, institutions may pay more attention to institutional behavior. It is expected that the allocation power of banks and insurance will strengthen at the beginning of next year, and interest rates may decline [21]. 2.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - Spot gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and it is expected to continue to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate once exceeded 7. The long - term RMB value is systematically undervalued, but in the medium - term, the role of macro - policies in the transition from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [22][23]. - US economic data shows that inflation pressure is easing, economic expansion momentum is weakening, the labor market is stable, and the Fed is in a "data - dependent" mode. It is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, but if economic data weakens, it may resume gradual interest rate cuts from January to April [23][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Liquidity in January 2026 - **Weekly review**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated during the week. The reasons included LPR non - adjustment, concerns about government bond issuance, and policy news [12]. - **Weekly thinking**: Analyze the five factors affecting the super - reserve ratio and predict the liquidity situation in January 2026. The overall liquidity gap is about 190 billion yuan, and the central bank may use various means to maintain liquidity [15][16][21]. 3.1.2 US Economic Data and Fed Policy - **Gold and exchange rate**: Gold prices are expected to continue to rise. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is affected by fiscal deficit and fiscal monetization [22][23]. - **US economic data**: The December PMI initial values were lower than expected, the November CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the labor participation rate was stable. The Fed's policy is focused on "liquidity guarantee and prudent policy balance" [23][24][26]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - market operations**: From December 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 6.52 billion yuan [38]. - **Interest rates**: Various interest rates such as money market rates, bond yields, and futures prices are presented in figures and tables, showing their trends and changes [39][40][42] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity prices**: Steel prices declined, and LME non - ferrous metal futures prices increased. The prices of other commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also had corresponding changes [59][61]. - **Financial market data**: Data on various financial market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and exchange rates in the US and other countries are presented [71][73][76] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 6 local bonds were issued with an amount of 2.037 billion yuan, a repayment of 5.211 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 3.174 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by Shenzhen, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia [85][87]. - No local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 2.199521 trillion yuan of such bonds have been issued [90]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.6 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 362.073 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. The top three active trading provinces were Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 15Y [101]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan The issuance plan of Beijing from December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, is presented in a figure [106]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 211 credit bonds were issued with a total issuance of 254.432 billion yuan, a total repayment of 213.649 billion yuan, and a net financing of 40.783 billion yuan, which decreased by 16.672 billion yuan compared with last week [108]. - Specifically, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 261 million yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 4.1044 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing had a net financing of - 4.4152 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 8.0004 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 719 million yuan, corporate bonds had 1.5045 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 292 million yuan [109][112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates and their changes of various bond types such as short - term financing, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds are presented in a table [119]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume data of credit bonds in different ratings and types are presented in a table, with a total trading volume of 626.442 billion yuan [120]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yield to maturity and its changes of various bonds such as government - backed development bonds, short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds are presented in tables [120][121][122] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [124][125][128] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened, and their changes are presented in tables and figures [135][137][139] 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type are presented in a table, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [143][144] 3.4.8 Issuer Rating Changes The issuer rating or outlook improvement information of two companies, Wenzhou Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Guangxi Energy Group Co., Ltd., is presented in a table [146]

Core Insights - The core focus of the news is the rapid expansion of the technology innovation bond market in China, which has seen significant growth since its launch in May 2023, with a total issuance of 2.26 trillion yuan by December 26, 2023 [1][6]. Market Growth - The issuance scale of technology innovation bonds reached 2.26 trillion yuan, covering over 2,000 bonds, marking a substantial year-on-year increase and providing strong financial support for technology innovation enterprises [1][6]. - Since the launch of the "technology board" in May, the issuance scale has exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan in just seven months, significantly surpassing the total issuance for the previous year [2][7]. - The issuance cost remains low, with over 40% of the bonds having interest rates below 2%, and most bonds issued at rates below 3%, which is advantageous compared to similar credit bonds [2][7]. Policy Support - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have introduced several measures to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, enhancing the product system and support mechanisms [2][7]. - The strong policy backing has injected significant momentum into the market, leading to a surge in demand and subscription rates for these bonds [2][7]. Issuer Diversity - The range of issuers for technology innovation bonds has expanded to include technology enterprises, financial institutions, and private equity firms, covering multiple industries [4][9]. - As of December 26, the interbank market's issuance scale surpassed 1 trillion yuan, with commercial banks contributing around 300 billion yuan, indicating a notable growth in smaller banks' participation [10]. Future Outlook - The technology innovation bond market is expected to continue expanding, driven by increasing financing needs in the technology sector and ongoing policy reforms aimed at enhancing the bond market's support for innovation [5][10].