1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro - policy aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline in December 2025, and the government debt growth rate is also expected to continue to fall. - The economic situation on the asset side is weak, with the physical quantity data in October weaker than that in September. It is necessary to focus on when the economy will stabilize and pick up. - The stock - bond ratio is in an interval - shock state, currently with risk - preference at the upper limit of the interval and trending downward later. The stock - bond ratio is in favor of bonds, and the equity style is in favor of value [17][19][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.7%, the same as the previous value, and it is expected to drop to around 8.5% in December. The government debt growth rate was 13.1% at the end of November, and is expected to fall to around 12.5% in December. The capital market was basically stable last week, mainly due to the renewal of 750 billion special treasury bonds on the 12th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence [17][18]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 298.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned net decrease of 510.2 billion yuan. It is planned that the government bonds will have a net decrease of 119.2 billion yuan next week [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital trading volume and price increased on a weekly average basis, and the term spread was stable. The one - year treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.39% on the weekend. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds was stable at 45 basis points. The yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in October was weaker than that in September. The annual real economic growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and currently the liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited [6][20]. - **Overseas Situation**: China and the US are in a state of equal - power competition. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. It is necessary to focus on whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel [6][21]. - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market was stable, with stocks and bonds rising slightly, and the equity style shifting to growth - dominance. The bond yields at both long - and short - ends declined slightly, and the stock - bond ratio was in favor of bonds [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendation**: It is recommended to allocate long - term bonds and value - type equity assets. This week, it is recommended to allocate the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares fell on heavy volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment had the largest increases, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing had the largest declines [30]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 12, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, communication, machinery, and computers, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and coal. The trading volume of the whole A - shares rebounded this week, with the trading volume of some industries increasing and that of some industries decreasing [31][34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery, and comprehensive increased the most, while that of coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, insurance, etc. [37][38]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, the demand is declining marginally, with the global manufacturing PMI falling and the export growth rates of some countries fluctuating. Domestically, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends [42]. - **Public Offering Market Review**: In the second week of December, most active public - offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 12, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds increased slightly compared with that in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio is only slightly in favor of equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. A recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][65].

(本文来自第一财经) 按申万一级行业来看，本周（12月8日至12月12日）五个交易日内，银行、钢铁、交通运输、房地产行 业获得主力资金青睐，其中，银行行业获主力净流入15.47亿元。电子、计算机、通信、医药生物、国 防军工等板块遭净流出额居前。其中电子板块遭抛售近180亿元。 个股方面，本周东山精密获净流入15.08亿元居首，周涨幅达21.02%。胜宏科技、比亚迪主力净流入分 别为13.79亿元、12.17亿元。净流出方面，中兴通讯、阳光电源、天孚通信分别遭抛售53.17亿元、47.21 亿元、38.43亿元。 ...

会议强调，要深刻汲取近期国内事故教训，扎实开展高层建筑重大火灾风险隐患排查整治，纵深推 进冬春消防安全排查整治"百日攻坚"行动，全力抓好消防安全治理。要深入开展今冬明春安全生产大检 查，层层压实安全生产责任措施，有力有效防风险、除隐患、遏事故。要抓好危化品、矿山、交通运 输、建筑施工、海上安全等重点行业领域安全防范，扎实推进冷库、城镇燃气、建筑保温材料等"一件 事"全链条整治，坚决防范遏制较大及以上事故发生。要抓紧抓实森林草原防灭火工作，严格火源管 控，强化隐患排查，科学高效安全应对突发火情，以实际行动守护人民群众生命财产安全。（记者 杨 成） 12月12日，全省安全生产和森林草原防灭火视频会议召开，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于安全生 产的重要指示批示精神，认真落实省委、省政府决策部署，研判分析形势任务，对今冬明春安全生产和 森林草原防灭火工作进行安排部署。省委常委、常务副省长张海波出席会议并讲话，副省长温暖主持会 议。 ...

人民财讯12月13日电，近日，交通运输部召开党组会，会议强调，要严格落实冬季恶劣天气主动防御措 施，加强气象会商研判，督促地方及时预警响应，对重点点位提前采取管控措施，强化值班值守和监测 调度。要进一步压紧压实安全生产责任，加强重点领域重大危险源管控，认真谋划部署春运春节重大风 险隐患排查整治行动，全力确保行业安全生产形势稳定。 ...

"自2023年启动新一轮国企改革深化提升行动以来，我们以'一年谋划、两年攻坚、三年收官'的战 略定力，推动139项改革任务靶向突破。"泰州市国资委相关负责人表示，从司库体系"数智赋能"到招商 机制"精准破局"，从产业布局"优化升级"到民生服务"提质增效"，国有资本正为城市高质量发展注入强 劲动力。 "以前企业资金分散在8500多个银行账户，监管难、调度慢，现在通过司库系统，资金归集效率提 升80%，内部调剂更精准高效。"泰州市交通产业集团财务负责人介绍，借助这套系统，集团已归集资 金251亿元，办理内部贷款150笔，累计节约融资成本超2亿元。目前，司库系统创新"国资侧+企业侧"双 系统模式，实现银行账户实时监管，银企直连覆盖率超95%。通过系统贷款预警功能，某国企提前调度 资金规避了亿元逾期风险。这一改革亮点不仅斩获2025中国司库建设司南奖"地方机构司库建设标杆"， 更成为泰州优化国资配置的生动注脚。 除司库系统外，市国资委以"数智赋能"优化国企融资环境，上线了泰州市国有企业融资交易服务平 台。该平台与司库系统实现功能贯通，优化了融资计划管理、融资交易管理、债务监测预警和资金动态 管理等功能，构建资金来源可 ...

天津北方网讯：12月12日，气温骤降，但在津云中央厨房和津云抖音直播间里却"热气腾腾"。13时30分 至21时30分，一场海河MCN主播联动30位品牌老总的"直播盛宴"在津云抖音直播间里以走播和坐播的 形式持续开播8小时，激活津城消费新活力，展现天津老字号的独特魅力，让广大网友在"嗨购"中解锁 消费新体验！ 由市委宣传部、市委网信办指导，市商务局、海河传媒中心主办，津云新媒体集团、海河MCN承办， 市工业和信息化局、市文化和旅游局、市国资委、市农业农村委支持的第三届天津电商节"双12"专场 以"'总'有好价——'双12'嗨购节"为主题，不仅带来了68个品牌、337款精选产品，更有多款新品在天津 电商节面向国内外市场集中首发，"老总天团"现场互动、带来专属福利价格等丰富内容，为消费者呈现 了一场兼具"天津特色"与"创新活力"的年终购物狂欢。 津牌好物开场 多款新品在天津电商节首发 13时30分，直播准时开始。首环节"津牌好物 '卫'你而来"中，天津海鸥表业集团公司党委副书记施婷婷 率先登场带来了与海河MCN的新品联名盲盒。 天津海河乳品有限公司党委书记、董事长邹旸首次面向市场发布了毛绒绒系列的暖手袋及书包挂件。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 12月12日，交通运输部召开党组会和部务会，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究部署贯彻落实工 作。会议强调，要坚持内需主导，统筹交通基础设施新建、更新和数智化改造，加快贯通国家综合立体 交通网主骨架，扩大交通运输有效投资。要坚持创新驱动，深入实施"人工智能+交通运输"行动，培育 发展交通运输领域新质生产力。要坚持改革攻坚，推进重大改革任务落实，加快建设统一开放的交通运 输市场。要坚持对外开放，完善立体互联互通网络布局，健全多元化、韧性强的国际运输通道体系。要 坚持协调发展，推进跨区域跨流域大通道建设，促进城乡融合和区域联动。要坚持"双碳"引领，全面推 进交通运输领域美丽中国建设，推动交通运输全面绿色转型。要坚持民生为大，全力办好交通为民实 事，不断提高交通运输服务保障民生能力。要坚持守牢底线，扎实做好交通运输安全生产、防灾减灾等 工作，强化灾害天气主动防御，更好保障交通运输新就业群体合法权益。 ...

人民财讯12月12日电，12月12日，交通运输部召开党组会和部务会，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神， 研究部署贯彻落实工作。会议强调，要坚持内需主导，统筹交通基础设施新建、更新和数智化改造，加 快贯通国家综合立体交通网主骨架，扩大交通运输有效投资。要坚持创新驱动，深入实施"人工智能 +交通运输"行动，培育发展交通运输领域新质生产力。要坚持改革攻坚，推进重大改革任务落实，加 快建设统一开放的交通运输市场。要坚持对外开放，完善立体互联互通网络布局，健全多元化、韧性强 的国际运输通道体系。要坚持协调发展，推进跨区域跨流域大通道建设，促进城乡融合和区域联动。 ...

决定书显示，9月23日，长城人寿增持新天绿能股票100万股，增持后合计持有新天绿能股票21040万 股，占新天绿能总股本的5.0027%。9月24日，长城人寿公司披露《简式权益变动报告书》，披露上述 交易行为。 河北证监局指出，长城人寿在持有新天绿能股份达到5%时，未停止买卖新天绿能股份，违反《证券 法》第三十六条第二款、第六十三条第一款规定。 据券商中国记者查询，其中，第六十三条第一款规定为：通过证券交易所的证券交易，投资者持有或者 通过协议、其他安排与他人共同持有一个上市公司已发行的有表决权股份达到百分之五时，应当在该事 实发生之日起三日内，向国务院证券监督管理机构、证券交易所作出书面报告，通知该上市公司，并予 公告，在上述期限内不得再行买卖该上市公司的股票，但国务院证券监督管理机构规定的情形除外。 简单理解，这一规定即，当对一家上市公司持股达到5%时，应该在三日内停止交易相关股票，并向有 关方进行报告和信息披露。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 近日，被称做"险资举牌先锋"的长城人寿，因一个"低级错误"——持股达到5%而未停止交易，被出具 警示函。 针对这一较少见到的案例，券商中国记者 ...

2025 年 12 月 12 日 金 融 工 程 "焕新"与"优选"：自由现金流指数调样在即， 关注 ETF 长期配置与事件机遇 投资要点： 自由现金流的市场表现与优势 究 报 告 紧密跟踪下获取了可观的超额收益，整体流动性良好：自 2025 年 6 月 6 日上市以来累计收益率达 19.11%，相较于中证现金流基 准指数的 16.05%，127 个交易日实现 3.06%的区间累计超额收益， 年化超额达到 7.06%，相对指数创造了较为可观且稳健的超额收 益。在跟踪精度方面，基金日均绝对跟踪误差仅 0.02%，12 月以 来产品日均成交额接近 1 亿元，流动性良好。基金经理赵建忠先 生目前在管产品 13 只，在管规模 63.88 亿元，管理经验丰富。 风险提示 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.co ...