来源：郁言债市 行情回顾：震荡，蓄势 1月19-23日，类权益市场震荡上涨。分行业来看，上游资源转债与高端制造表现出色。转债估值方面，偏债型转债估值有所回落，偏股型转债估值继续拉 伸。截至1月23日，转债百元溢价率为41.12%，处于2020年以来100%分位数的水平。 策略：正股持续强势，转债估值定价锚进一步淡化 市场持续强势，使得可转债ETF再迎资金流入。开年以来，随着转债市场的持续强势及年末考核压力的结束，大量FOMO资金重新涌入转债市场，进一步 推升转债估值。 转债估值定价锚进一步淡化。随着正股行情继续高涨&转债估值持续拉伸，绝对价格120元以下转债接近消失，130元以下转债也大量减少。偏债型品种估 值定价锚主要为纯债溢价率，除2024年信用风波区间阶段性受到挑战之外，基本能发挥参考作用。但低价转债占比已经明显减少，除临期偏债转债外，纯 债溢价率的实际意义明显下降。 与此同时，高价偏股型转债估值定价锚主要为转股溢价率。如今弹性转债估值动辄30%以上，进攻性强的转债估值甚至逼近40%。一方面，通过转债估值 水平来反推转债强赎意愿的可行性进一步降低，另一方面，如果要参与个券行情，只能淡化转债估值，更多从正 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates a significant structural differentiation in the market, with small and mid-cap stocks performing better than large-cap stocks, suggesting a continued spring rally [4][6] - The net outflow from broad-based ETFs is not a sign of market exit but rather a healthy adjustment, indicating that investors are reallocating towards more flexible non-broad-based ETFs [5][6] - The report highlights that the average daily trading volume is crucial for triggering style switches between small and large caps, with a historical tendency for small caps to outperform during periods of increased trading volume [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The report suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on the market, emphasizing a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, with specific recommendations for sectors such as AI hardware, military, media, and renewable energy [7] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the PPI and the benefits of cyclical sectors in the context of anti-involution trends, recommending investments in sectors like chemicals, power, and machinery [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - SpaceX's second-generation Starlink system is expected to launch in 2027, significantly enhancing internet service capacity and creating investment opportunities in the related supply chain [16][18] - The report notes that the tea beverage sector is experiencing strong growth, with companies like Luckin Coffee expanding rapidly, indicating a robust consumer trend in the food and beverage industry [22][23] - The agricultural sector is facing supply pressures, particularly in pork prices, with current prices at 12.92 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase but potential downward pressure post-holiday [28][29] Group 4: Financial Sector Developments - The report highlights a notable increase in the issuance of equity funds, with a 56% year-on-year growth in new fund shares, indicating a positive trend for the financial IT and brokerage sectors [49][50] - It mentions that the public fund performance benchmark guidelines have been established, which will enhance the performance assessment and compensation management systems within the industry [50]

详解五大产业发展 ◎记者 陈玥 银河基金权益投资团队 芒格曾说，在有鱼的地方钓鱼。开年以来，权益市场结构性行情突出，主题轮动中，如何看待产业发展 机遇？对此，银河基金权益投资团队就相关的产业趋势与上海证券报记者作了分享。 医药：小荷才露尖尖角 年初以来，脑机接口横空出世，成为2026年第一个热门主题。被问及该行业发展趋势，银河医药混合基 金经理方伟颇有发言权。 "去年底我们关注到科研服务（即CRO，医药研发外包）及医疗设备与器械可能具备发展潜力。"方伟对 上海证券报记者说。 脑机接口是昙花一现还是具有广阔发展空间？方伟表示，从全年的维度来看，国内在无创和有创脑机接 口技术支付体系逐渐清晰，单价和数量均可量化。长期来看，脑机接口是医疗器械行业中一个比较细分 但具有发展潜力的方向，期待其未来应用场景更加丰富。 放眼整个医药板块，方伟认为：一方面，去年的创新药估值已有所修复；另一方面，今年随着一些可预 期的催化事件落地，关注其他医药子板块的估值是否有望逐步提升。 对于化工板块，金烨认为化工品价格指数处于历史低位，"当前市场一方面是观望'反内卷'政策的作 用，另一方面，若PPI同比转正，化工品价格至关重要。因此，市场 ...

长安基金王浩聿：以产业周期视角迎接AI投资浪潮 ◎记者 赵明超 历经苹果产业链崛起、5G爆发及新能源浪潮等多轮产业周期，长安宏观策略混合基金经理王浩聿直 言，"水大才能鱼多"。他沉淀出一套"锚定趋势、验证业绩、敬畏估值"的核心框架。当人工智能成为席 卷全球的科技浪潮时，王浩聿表示这是"20年一遇的大机会"，需要沉下心做好研究与跟踪，才能把握好 这次投资机会。 聚焦产业发展趋势 在担任基金经理前，王浩聿在科技行业深耕多年，覆盖电子、传媒、通信、计算机、机器人等领域，也 逐渐形成了一套完整的投资框架，即从产业发展趋势入手，聚焦行业竞争格局，精选优质公司，通过对 订单和业绩的持续跟踪，结合市场走势和估值水平，对仓位进行灵活调整。 "任何产业趋势背后都有核心驱动力。以苹果产业链为例，很多人在研究苹果产业链时，可能会聚焦供 应链公司的订单业绩情况，但就本质而言，这些其实是产业趋势发展的结果。真正关键的是研究苹果公 司自身的发展逻辑，比如它如何规划产品线、未来手机的创新方向在哪里、TWS耳机为何能实现爆发 式增长、AI手机应该如何设计等，这才是产业链研究的核心。"王浩聿表示。 在锚定方向后，王浩聿会从竞争格局、订单及业绩 ...

来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 本周A股交易热度回升，强势行情延续，成交量重回3万亿以上。这显示市场内生信心与承接力较强， 且伴随着国内资产荒与人民币升值预期等背景下，增量资金不断流入。 结构上看，中小盘与主题投资依然是春季行情活跃方向，但从本周行业表现看，和去年底今年初行情不 同的是，市场结构也出现了一些变化，地产链、资源品及涨价链都有扩散表现，显示中低风险偏好增量 资金也在流入，同时，值得讨论和注意的有： 1）近期出现了一些扩内需政策的表态信号，而市场反应显示其预期政策有一定加码概率。地产价格、 基建投资和服务消费是扩内需的重要抓手，而这些方向中的龙头公司重估机会可能是中低风险偏好增量 资金的关注重点。 2）周期股扩散演绎也显示市场对于再通胀的信心上升。市场不但是从有色扩散到了化工，建材乃至钢 铁煤炭也都有所表现，显示市场对于今年PPI回升趋势的信心强烈，但消费股反应依然偏弱，今年的扩 内需与反内卷政策进度力度以及上中下游盈利结构的变化值得关注。 3）通信25Q4机构持仓占比较Q3进一步提升，属于一致预期较强方向，但市场处于牛市扩散期，资金认 为AI应用等产业机会增加，而前期筹码集中方向市场研究深度则相对到位， ...

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China achieved a record profit of 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, recovering from a cumulative loss of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [1][2] - Despite a loss of approximately 110 billion yuan in Q4 2025, the overall annual performance marked a significant recovery for the industry [2][3] Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of 1,097.65 billion yuan, ending a streak of seven consecutive profitable quarters [2][3] - Equity funds were the hardest hit, with a combined loss of 1,306.91 billion yuan in Q4, while mixed funds lost 499.56 billion yuan [3][4] - For the entire year, equity funds still managed to generate a profit of 1.99 trillion yuan, despite the Q4 downturn [4] Product Categories - QDII funds and FOF funds also faced losses in Q4, amounting to 710.47 billion yuan and 2.12 billion yuan respectively, but ended the year with profits of 1,125.22 billion yuan and 186.38 billion yuan [4] - Fixed-income products, including bond and money market funds, contributed significantly to profits, with bond funds earning 580.81 billion yuan and money market funds 443.13 billion yuan [4] Fund Company Performance - Among 167 fund companies, 108 reported positive profits, with over 60% achieving profitability [5] - Notable performers included Guotou Ruijin Fund, which led the industry with a profit of 72.82 billion yuan [5] Stock Holdings Adjustments - Public funds increased their holdings in 83 new stocks by the end of Q4 2025, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [7] - Ningde Times remained the top holding stock, despite a reduction of 1,993 million shares, while Zhongji Xuchuang became the most held stock among active funds [10][11] Sector Focus - The communication sector, particularly in optical modules, saw increased institutional investment, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Technology becoming top holdings [10] - The top three sectors for public fund investments were electronics, power equipment, and communication, with significant capital allocated to these areas [13]

王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 2025年社零首破50万亿， 关注细分赛道机会 平安证券研究所 大消费团队 证券分析师： 胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 2026年1月25日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周观点 资料来源：wind，平安证券研究所 大消费行业周观点：本周市场有所降温，万得全A成交额为13.99万亿元（上周为17.33万亿），沪深300下跌0.62%，上证指数和万得全A分 别上涨0.84%和1.81%，主要受建材、石油石化、钢铁、有色、基础化工等板块上涨驱动，大消费板块多数跑赢 ...

日前，由香港"壳王"陈国强控股的德祥地产(00199.HK)发布公告，宣布启动新一轮股份增发，引入香港立法会议员吴杰庄为新股东，同时战略股东瑞凯集团 (Reynold Lemkins)通过特别授权大幅增持。 德祥地产此次公告集中披露三项关键交易：根据一般授权向独立第三方吴杰庄配售新股1150万股；根据特别授权向瑞凯集团定向增发1.3亿股新股，以及1.8 亿股非上市认股权证。新股价格为每股1.14港元，较上轮配售溢价62.86%，设有锁定期至2026年12月21日。认股权证的行使期为6个月，初始行权价为每股 1.704港元，较前一交易日收盘价溢价20%。若相关权证完全行权，瑞凯集团潜在持股比例将达30.90%，合计投入4.7亿港元，此举或将触发港股全面要约收 购红线。此次募资主要投向传统地产业务Web3转型与资产数字化(RWA)布局。 此次增持并非偶然，而是瑞凯集团精心布局的关键一步。回溯2025年11月，德祥地产曾向瑞凯集团增发1.008亿股新股，募资7056万港元，使瑞凯持股比例 达10%且认购股份设有12个月禁售期，另一方面，瑞凯集团主席刘浩然加入德祥地产董事会，这在当时被市场解读为瑞凯集团"分步控股"的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook, focusing on long-term opportunities in cyclical industries [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of an increase in the Wande All A Index over the following month, with an average expected gain of 3.18% [24][31]. - The report emphasizes the strong upward momentum in cyclical industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, driven by global macro events [24][25]. - Short-term investments in thematic sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and space photovoltaics have shown significant rebounds, although caution is advised due to potential volatility from rapid price increases [25][27]. Fund Size Statistics - In the period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, the top three increasing equity ETF types were: thematic index ETFs (59.135 billion), industry index ETFs (7.975 billion), and cross-border industry index ETFs (5.346 billion) [9][10]. - The top three increasing equity ETF products were: power grid equipment ETF (7.326 billion), chemical ETF (5.717 billion), and sci-tech chip ETF (3.953 billion) [10][14]. - The top three increasing equity ETF tracking indices were: segmented chemical index (9.829 billion), power grid equipment thematic index (7.326 billion), and SSH gold stock index (5.251 billion) [18][20]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market in January 2026, with a focus on the micro-cap index and the CSI 500 leading the market [24][25]. - Long-term recommendations include a focus on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, with silver prices surpassing the psychological level of 100, indicating potential for further increases [24][25]. - The report anticipates a market characterized by oscillating upward trends, recommending a growth-oriented ETF allocation [67][68].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 数禾减值系一次性非经常影响，不影响公司分红能力 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 事件: 公司于 1 月 23 日公告拟以人民币 7.91 亿元的对价完全退出数禾科技投 资项目，对"长期股权投资-数禾"计提减值 21.53 亿元；该资产账面价值为 29.44 亿元、可回收金额为 7.91 亿元。公司已与交易各方签署《框架协议》并收到首 付款人民币 4.04 亿元；公司确认已从数禾退出，数禾不再是公司的联营公司。 ❑ 风险提示：海外扩张不及预期风险、竞争风险、广告主投放不及预期风险。 | 财务数据与估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 11904 | 12262 | 13036 | 13576 | 14090 | | 同比增长 | 26% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5792 | 6041 | ...