Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing an adjustment phase, with a shift from growth to value style, influenced by various short-term disturbances, differing from previous cycles [1][5][7] - A historical review from 2009 shows seven significant phases of style switching in the A-share market, indicating that such transitions are closely related to changes in fundamentals and economic cycles [5][6][7] - The current style switch is primarily driven by short-term factors such as external tariff concerns and profit-taking in the technology sector, rather than fundamental changes in the growth-value dynamic [7][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the current value style dominance is characterized by two scenarios: upward market adjustments during economic improvements or downward adjustments due to rapid economic declines [6][7] - Historical data indicates that significant style switches often coincide with economic turning points or major policy adjustments, with the probability of switching increasing when the relative difference in ROE between value and growth indices widens [6][7][15] - The report anticipates that the ongoing trade tensions may lead to increased volatility, but the long-term "slow bull" trend remains intact, with specific investment directions suggested in both growth and value sectors [8][15]

近期，兼具稳健与收益弹性的"固收+"基金又成市场热点，多家大型基金公司推出"固收+"新产品，且加 大了对老产品的持营力度。 与此同时，"固收+"基金业绩分化，出现了同赛道不同命的现象。近一年以来，多只"固收+"基金回报率 超20%，但首尾回报率差异巨大，超过40个百分点。同样是"固收+"基金，为何有的产品大赚，而垫底 产品却亏成"固收-"？ 绩优产品重仓科技股与可转债 数据显示，截至10月16日，近一年以来，共79只混合债券型一级基金、混合债券型二级基金取得了20% 以上的回报率。整体来看，"固收+"产品取得了不错的回报，混合债券型一级基金的回报率中位数为 3.18%，混合债券型二级基金的回报率中位数为6.02%。 □本报记者 张舒琳 与"+"策略成关键变量 尽管绝大部分"固收+"基金取得了不错的正回报，但仍有少量产品做成了"固收-"，例如，近一年以来， 格林聚鑫增强、明亚稳利3个月持有、诺德增强收益等混合债券型二级基金回报均为负。上述3只基金均 为规模不足4000万元的迷你债基，其中，格林聚鑫增强、明亚稳利3个月持有仅持有债券仓位，持仓多 以利率债为主。诺德增强收益虽有一定股票仓位，但多只重仓股贡献了负收益 ...

策略周报 中国资产的"黄金时代" 策略周末谈（1019） 核心结论 1、冰火转换时刻将至：中国资产重启"黄金时代" 2018 年中国进入工业化成熟期，制造业全球竞争优势积累大量国民财富，驱动 居民消费升级，宁组合/茅指数等制造/消费类资产开启"核心资产牛"。2022-2024 年美联储加息导致跨境资本和国民财富外流，梗阻"核心资产牛"。当前美联储 重启降息，跨境资本和国民财富将加速回流，中国制造/消费类资产将重启"黄 金时代"。本周 A 股风格切换，或预示着制造/消费"冰火转换"时刻将至。 2、中国资产"黄金时代"的基础：制造业出口竞争优势 过去几年制造业高度"内卷"反而能夯实其全球竞争优势，扛住 2025 年关税冲 击，继续积累国民财富。制造业对外净出口规模扩张，带来人民币汇率长期升值。 当前美联储重启降息，也将强化人民币升值趋势，驱动大量的跨境资本+国民财 富回流，中国居民的消费能力和消费意愿将会修复。在制造业强劲的出口竞争优 势"保驾护航"下，中国优质的制造/消费类资产的"冰火转换"时刻将至。 3、中国资产"黄金时代"的路径：A 股盈利和现金流修复 A 股盈利底部修复阶段往往对应着出口扩张和消费升级。（ ...

FICC周报 | 2025-10-19 高位板块调整，权重托底大盘 市场分析 中美高层通话。宏观方面，北京时间10月18日上午，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、 美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方围绕落实今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就双 边经贸关系中的重要问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的交流，同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。海外方面，特 朗普访谈中承认以高关税威胁中国的策略不可持续，并可能会冲击美国经济。此前，特朗普也曾在社交媒体平台 上发帖表示，美国"无意伤害中国"，暗示愿在一定条件下缓和紧张局势。目前特朗普已签署行政令，自11月1日起 对进口中型和重型卡车及零部件征收25%的新关税。还称还将对进口客车征收10%的关税。 股指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数本周调整，上证指数收盘跌1.47%收于3839.76点，创业板指跌5.71%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，银行、煤炭行业涨幅超4%，电子、传媒、汽车、通信行业跌幅居前。日均成交额约为2.3 万亿元。央行行长潘功胜在出席G20财长和央行行长会议时表示，将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用多种 货币政策工具，保证流动 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a style switch, with the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 indices declining by 0.24%, 2.22%, and 5.17% respectively this week[3] - The banking and coal sectors led the gains, while the TMT sectors, including electronics and media, saw the largest declines[5] Precious Metals - Since September, precious metal prices have surged, with the London spot gold price reaching a new high of $4,378 on October 17, and silver nearing $53[5] - Gold and silver prices increased by 27.3% and 30.5% respectively since the end of August, although they saw a slight decline of 1.3% and 3.9% on the last trading day[5] Economic Indicators - The core CPI in September rose by 1% year-on-year, with core goods CPI expected to reach 1.5%, the highest since 2021[5] - M1 growth rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 7.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 trillion yuan, surpassing the five-year average by nearly 1 trillion yuan[5] Trade and Export - September exports saw a significant increase due to a low base, with Africa and ASEAN being key support regions for China's high export levels[5] - The gap between China's exports to the U.S. and U.S. imports from China widened, with a difference of $57.6 billion from January to July, a 19.7% increase from the previous year[22] Government Debt and Policy - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to alleviate fiscal pressure, with an estimated economic boost of around 0.3 percentage points from policy financial tools and debt limits[16] - The local government debt limit is projected to be 1.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with the possibility of utilizing national debt limits as well[16]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - As of October 18, 2025, 117 listed companies have disclosed their Q3 earnings forecasts, the lowest in the past five years. About 84% of them announced positive news, similar to 2024. Most companies issued pre - increase announcements (60% of all forecasts). Only 10 convertible bond companies disclosed Q3 earnings forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery industries had more positive news. The non - ferrous metals and media industries showed significant improvement compared to 2024. Seven non - ferrous metal companies announced pre - increase, and 2 announced turnaround; 1 media company announced turnaround and 1 pre - increase [2][8]. - Four convertible bond listed companies, Luxshare, Limin, Bojun, and Downtow, reported positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years. Luxshare expects a 20% - 25% net profit increase in Q3, Limin may see a year - on - year net profit increase of over 600%, Bojun expects a 50% - 80% net profit increase, and Downtow's Q3 profit may increase by over 30% [2][13][14]. - The market style may be switching, and geopolitical uncertainties increase market volatility. The risk appetite in the convertible bond market may have declined. Selecting high - quality convertible bonds during the earnings season may be a key strategy, especially those with consistently excellent performance [2][14]. Summaries by Directory 1. Q3 Earnings Forecasts: How to View the Convertible Bond Market - The number of listed companies disclosing Q3 earnings forecasts in 2025 is the lowest in the past five years, with a similar structure to 2024. The proportion of companies with positive news is about 84%, the same as in 2024. In the convertible bond market, only 10 companies disclosed forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery are industries with more positive news. Non - ferrous metals and media industries improved significantly compared to 2024. 15 companies mentioned AI contributions in their earnings forecasts, with 14 reporting positive results and most planning to increase AI investment [2][8][11]. - Four convertible bond listed companies had positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years, with specific reasons for profit growth provided for each company [2][13][14]. 2. One - Week Market Performance - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.47% for the week; the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 474.22, down 2.35% for the week. The top - three rising industries in the stock market were banks (+4.99%), coal (+4.27%), and food and beverages (+0.85%), while electronics (-7.10%), media (-6.28%), and automobiles (-6.24%) declined [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 45 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 11%. The top - five and bottom - five in terms of price changes are listed. 266 convertible bonds' conversion premium rates increased, accounting for 64%, and the top - five and bottom - five in terms of valuation changes are also listed [17]. 3. Major Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reductions - Nanjing Pharmaceutical announced a convertible bond reduction this week. A table shows the convertible bonds with high major shareholder holding ratios and their reduction status [25][26][27]. 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - The primary - market approval process remains fast. Zhongqi Co., Ltd. (1.039 billion yuan), Mankun Technology (760 million yuan), and Huatong Cable (800 million yuan) have board proposals. Haitian Co., Ltd. (801 million yuan) has passed the shareholders' meeting, and Tianzhun Technology (872 million yuan) has received CSRC approval [27][28]. 5. Private EB Project Updates There were no progress updates on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: Large - Scale High - Rating Bonds Prevailed This Week - Using month - end rebalancing for back - testing and excluding bonds rated below A - and those with announced forced redemptions, large - scale high - rating convertible bonds prevailed this week. High - rating bonds had a 2.63pct excess return over low - rating bonds, large - scale bonds had a 1.89pct excess return over small - scale bonds, and equity - biased bonds had a - 8.24pct excess return over debt - biased bonds [29]. 7. One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Convertible Bond Valuations Declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate declined. As of the last trading day of the week, it closed at 29.31%, down 0.29% from the previous week, at the 86.5% historical percentile in the past six months and 93.6% in the past year. The median full - scope conversion premium rate increased by 0.78pct to 28.61%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) increased by 1.69pct to 41.46% [40]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium rate closed at 10.58%, down 1.12pct from the previous week, at the 80.6% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium rate closed at 10.78%, down 1.43pct from the previous week, at the 71.4% historical percentile in the past six months [40]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of the week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the bond floor, and 2 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.2%, 0%, and 6.7% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively. The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 3.97%, 5.84pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield; the median YTM of AA - to AA+ debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.48%, 3.59pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [44]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium rate remained flat. After excluding factors such as bond nature and remaining term, it was at the 84.3% historical percentile in the past six months and 68.9% since 2018. Considering only the bond floor, it was at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 34.8% since 2018 [56].

- The report introduces a timing system model based on the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index. The model's construction involves calculating the difference between the two moving averages, with the short-term average currently above the long-term average. The formula for the distance is expressed as: $ Distance = \frac{Short\ Term\ MA - Long\ Term\ MA}{Long\ Term\ MA} $ where Short Term MA represents the 20-day moving average and Long Term MA represents the 120-day moving average. The current distance is 12.26%, down from 12.89% last week, and remains significantly above the threshold of 3%[2][11][17] - The report evaluates the timing system model as effective in identifying market trends, noting that the recent shift from an upward trend to a volatile trend is captured by the model. The model's core observation focuses on changes in risk appetite during volatile periods[2][11][17] - The report highlights the "TWO BETA" model for industry allocation, which recommends focusing on technology sectors, including domestic computing power and the Hang Seng Internet sector. The model emphasizes policy-driven sectors such as photovoltaics and chemicals, alongside dividend assets[3][12][17] - The report suggests using a position management model to adjust stock allocation based on the WIND All A Index. The model recommends a 60% allocation for absolute return products, considering the index's PE at the 85th percentile and PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium valuation level[3][12][17] - The timing system model's backtesting results show that the current WIND All A Index trend line is at 6264 points, while the closing price is 6108 points, significantly below the trend line. The market's profitability effect indicator has turned negative for the first time in six months, signaling a potential end to the upward trend[2][11][17]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to multiple uncertainties, including escalating trade tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4]. Market Volatility - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to 28.99, the highest level since April, indicating increased market anxiety [2][4]. - Investors are buying options that profit when VIX rises to 47.5 and 50, reflecting a growing concern about market volatility [6]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by high valuations, necessitates caution regarding new risk triggers [6][7]. Trade Tensions - The resurgence of trade tensions is identified as a primary factor contributing to market volatility, with President Trump indicating that proposed additional tariffs are "unsustainable" [7]. - The Trump administration is reportedly adjusting its tariff policies, including granting exemptions for numerous products amid ongoing trade negotiations [7]. Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown is affecting various federal departments, leading to potential economic implications [7]. - The shutdown has halted the release of official economic data, making upcoming corporate earnings reports critical for assessing the health of the US economy [8]. Federal Reserve Meetings - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a payment innovation meeting on October 21, focusing on topics such as stablecoins and the integration of traditional and decentralized finance [10]. - Market expectations indicate a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with a 94% chance of cumulative cuts by December [10][11]. Upcoming Earnings Reports - Major companies, including Tesla and Netflix, are set to release earnings reports, which will provide insights into corporate profitability amid the current economic climate [8].

Economic Data - China will release key economic indicators including GDP, real estate investment, and retail sales on October 20, with expectations of a slight decline in GDP growth rate for Q3 [7][8] - The expected year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment is -12.9% [3] - The industrial added value for September is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] Events - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23 in Beijing [9] - The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 18th meeting will take place from October 24 to 28 in Beijing [9] - The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21 to discuss stablecoins, AI, and tokenization [9] Industry Conferences - The China Solid-State Battery Conference will be held from October 22 to 24 in Hefei, with participation from companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech [12] - The Low Altitude Economy Innovation Application and Standardization Promotion Conference is scheduled for October 24 in Beijing [12] - The 2025 Satellite Application Conference will take place from October 25 to 27 in Beijing [12] - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to hold a technology day on October 24, potentially unveiling a robot [13] Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings include Tesla, IBM, Intel, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble, with a focus on Tesla's Full Self-Driving progress and Intel's AI chip orders [14][15] - In China, companies like CATL, iFlytek, China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom will also release their latest earnings reports [16] - CATL's solid-state battery technology roadmap may trigger a reevaluation of the value in the new energy industry if clear mass production signals are released [16]

据Wind数据，截至10月16日，近一年来，共79只混合债券型一级基金、混合债券型二级基金取得20% 以上的回报率。混合债券型一级基金的收益率中位数为3.18%，混合债券型二级基金的收益率中位数为 6.02%。 其中，收益率超过20%的"固收+"基金大多重仓可转债，且叠加较高权益仓位，积极布局科技股。 混合债券型二级基金中，近一年来收益率最高的是华商丰利增强定开债，达到39.48%，该基金截至上 半年末股票仓位约18.93%，是一只"股性"大于"债性"的"固收+"基金。尽管其对单个股票的配置仓位相 对较低，个股持仓分散，但在个股的选择上却十分具有进攻性，其前十大重仓股中有不少弹性较强、今 年以来涨幅可观的个股，如多只券商、商业航天、AI算力股，包括光模块板块中的新易盛、中际旭 创，此外对天孚通信等多只通信股均有少量配置。在债券仓位部分，该基金以可转债配置为主，仅配有 少量国债。 近一年来收益率超37%的华宝增强收益债券，同样是分散股票配置，截至二季度末共配置55只股票，以 进攻性较强的科技股为主，且多为不足百亿元的中小盘股，既包揽了电子行业热门股，如中际旭创、新 易盛、歌尔股份等，还包括今年强势上涨的传媒、计 ...