Core Viewpoint - 华夏基金（香港） is positioning itself as a differentiated Chinese financial institution, focusing on innovative financial products and capitalizing on emerging market opportunities, particularly in the offshore RMB bond market [1][3][7]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Innovation - 华夏基金（香港） has adopted a forward-looking approach, launching several innovative products, including the first RMB-denominated public fund in Hong Kong, which targets investment-grade bonds [3][7]. - The company has successfully launched the largest offshore RMB money market ETF globally, with a scale of 4.97 billion RMB, demonstrating its ability to identify and capitalize on market trends [3][4]. - The firm has also introduced the first pure Hong Kong stock biotechnology ETF, which has gained significant traction among both domestic and international investors [4][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Growth Potential - 甘添, CEO of 华夏基金（香港）, predicts explosive growth in the offshore RMB bond market over the next three to five years, with the offshore RMB fund pool expected to reach approximately 5 trillion RMB by 2030 [1][7]. - The point bond market has seen substantial growth, with its scale increasing from 254 billion RMB in 2020 to nearly 1 trillion RMB currently, driven by attractive yields compared to domestic bonds [8][9]. - The company anticipates that the increasing participation of domestic institutions in the offshore RMB market will be fueled by favorable policies and the growing appeal of point bonds [9][10]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is actively supporting the internationalization of the RMB, which is expected to enhance the development of the offshore RMB market and create a stable liquidity supply channel [7][9]. - Recent policy changes, such as the relaxation of cross-border investment channels, are expected to facilitate domestic investors' access to offshore RMB assets, further boosting market growth [9][10]. - The shift in the Hong Kong stock market's pricing power, with increasing domestic investment, indicates a changing landscape where local investors are becoming more influential [10][11].

【导读】国债等利息收入增值税恢复征收，券商首席最新解读 中国基金报记者 晨曦 事关债券利息征税，新政策来了！ 8 月 1 日，财政部、税务总局联合发布 《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》 。 公告显示，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债 券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。此次政策调整采用 " 新老划断 " 原则，对 8 月 8 日前已发行的相关债券利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 本周五公告发出后， 10 年国债收益率短期上行后明显下行，收盘时 10 年国债和 30 年国债 均下行了 1 个 BP 。这意味着部分投资者考虑到后续新发债券面临的税收压力，更愿意持有 当前国债，市场买盘力量不弱。 恢复征税，将对债券市场及投资者将产生哪些影响？后续还有哪些要点值得关注？基金君整 理了多名券商首席观点解读如下 —— 税收优惠政策的使命已完成 可缓和财政收支压力 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园 认为，此次恢复征收国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增 值税，主要有两点原因：一是当前债券投资已颇具规模， " 资产荒 " 背景下，国债、地方债 等安全资产已经具 ...

如何理解国债恢复增值税？ 分析师：严伶怡 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 联系人：苏鸿婷 Email：suht@zts.com.cn 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 1、《政治局会议后，债市或修复》 2025-07-30 2、《经济读数尚可，债市数据交易 进行中》2025-07-15 盘后修复》2025-07-15 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 08 月 02 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 昨日财政部、税务总局公布，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新 发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在该日期之 前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发行的部 分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 我们认为以最直接的思路去理解，对债券市场加征税收，本质上对市场并不算利好。 存量债券的收益没有增加，而新增债券的收益下降，那么最终大概率更多是以新券利 率补偿式上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Southbound Connect is an important exploration of China's financial market interconnection. Banks' proprietary trading is the most important investor under the current mechanism and is expected to expand. The annual quota for Southbound Connect is RMB 50 billion equivalent, and investors can choose either multi - level direct connection custody or domestic custody and clearing banks to hold their bond assets, with strict cross - border capital supervision. - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of the Hong Kong bond market exceeded USD 900 billion. It includes the offshore RMB bond market, the Hong Kong dollar bond market, and the Asian G3 currency bond market. G3 currency bonds, especially US dollar bonds issued by Chinese - funded institutions, are an important part of the Hong Kong market. - In the future, with the expansion of the scope of institutions, Southbound Connect will become an important starting point for domestic institutions' overseas bond investment. It is recommended to actively seize overseas opportunities and carefully manage exchange - rate risks [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Financial Market Opening and the Birth of Bond "Southbound Connect" - China's capital market opening process can be divided into three stages: "early opening attempts - expansion of cross - border investment channels - capital market interconnection". Bond "Southbound Connect" is an important exploration in the interconnection stage. - In 2016, the concept of Bond Connect was first proposed. In 2017, Northbound Connect was officially launched, and in 2021, Southbound Connect was launched. Since 2025, regulators have repeatedly mentioned Southbound Connect, clarifying that investors will be expanded to four types of non - bank institutions: securities firms, funds, insurance, and wealth management [4]. 3.2 Analysis of the Bond Southbound Connect System - Participants in Southbound Connect include market - makers and investors. Banks' proprietary trading is the most important investor under the current mechanism. The trading service variety is initially spot bond trading, and the investable bonds are all bond types issued overseas and traded in the Hong Kong bond market. - The annual quota for Southbound Connect is RMB 50 billion equivalent, and the daily quota is RMB 20 billion equivalent. Domestic investors participate in Southbound Connect transactions through the request - for - quote method. - Southbound Connect adopts the nominee holder system. Investors can choose to hold their bond assets through multi - level direct connection custody or domestic custody and clearing banks, with strict cross - border capital supervision. The expansion of Southbound Connect is beneficial for optimizing the investor structure [5]. 3.3 Introduction to the Hong Kong Bond Market - Classified by currency, the Hong Kong bond market includes the offshore RMB bond market, the Hong Kong dollar bond market, and the Asian G3 currency bond market. The Hong Kong dollar bond market has grown steadily in recent years; the offshore RMB bond market expanded significantly in 2024; the issuance scale of the G3 currency bond market rebounded in 2024, with Chinese - funded issuers being the main ones. - Classified by issuer, the Hong Kong bond market can be divided into (quasi -) sovereign bonds and corporate bonds. The former includes Hong Kong government bonds, bonds issued by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, bonds issued by mainland (quasi -) sovereign institutions, and bonds issued by overseas (quasi -) sovereign institutions. The latter includes bonds issued by recognized institutions, public institutions, and private institutions [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the first half of 2025, China's bond market continued to strengthen its direct financing function, focusing on "improving quality and efficiency, serving the real economy." It launched the "Technology Board" of the bond market, increased targeted support for key areas such as technological innovation and private enterprises, strengthened requirements for issuance, trading, and valuation, promoted market standardization, and further advanced opening - up to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign bond markets [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Areas: The "Technology Board" of the Bond Market Sets Sail, and Policy "Combinations" Inject New Development Momentum - **Policy for Technological Innovation**: Policies in the technological innovation field were intensively introduced. The "Technology Board" of the bond market was officially launched, supporting three types of entities to issue technological innovation bonds. The issuance scale of technological innovation bonds reached about 1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 86%. The risk - sharing tools and ETFs for technological innovation bonds made positive progress [4][6][11]. - **Support for Consumption and Sports Industries**: The bond market increased support for the consumption and sports industries. In the sports industry, relevant departments issued a guiding opinion to support sports enterprises in issuing bonds. In the consumption field, policies were introduced to support enterprises in service consumption areas to issue bonds [12][14]. 2. Weak Links: Policies Intensify to Release Positive Signals, and the Financing Situation of Private Enterprises Remains to Be Continuously Observed - **Policy Attention**: The central government deployed efforts to solve the financing problems of private enterprises. The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was officially implemented, emphasizing support for private enterprises to obtain direct financing through bonds [15][16][18]. - **Financing Situation**: Although the bond financing of private enterprises improved marginally, overall, it still faced constraints such as insufficient demand and high costs. The improvement of private enterprise bond financing requires time [21][22]. 3. Basic Systems: Adhere to the Main Line of Standardized System Construction and Promote the High - Quality Development of the Bond Market - **System Rule Optimization**: The bond market optimized rules for issuance, trading, and valuation. For example, it reduced bond trading and settlement fees, revised company bond review guidelines, and optimized bond valuation guidelines [25][26][27]. - **Risk Management**: It standardized debt - restructuring bond replacement business and improved the institutional framework of credit risk mitigation tools to enhance the flexibility of product creation [28][29]. 4. Opening - up: The Bond Connect Has Made Positive Progress, and Upgraded Measures May Accelerate the Opening - up Process - **Free - Trade Offshore Bonds**: There are expectations for the restart of free - trade offshore bonds, emphasizing the "two - ends - abroad" principle to support domestic enterprises' overseas financing and attract foreign investment [33]. - **Bond Connect Optimization**: The Bond Connect reached its eighth anniversary. The scope of "South - bound Connect" investors was expanded to non - banking institutions, and relevant mechanisms were optimized to promote the interconnection of domestic and foreign markets [34][37]. - **Bond Allocation Value**: China's bonds have good allocation value. Against the backdrop of Sino - US tariff frictions, they may attract more long - term allocation funds, and the bond market's opening - up level is expected to continue to deepen [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of offshore sustainable dim sum bonds by Mengniu Dairy has reignited market interest in the offshore RMB bond market, highlighting its significance in expanding financing channels for domestic and foreign enterprises and enhancing the international status of the RMB [1][3]. Dim Sum Bond Market Overview - As of July 28, over 700 dim sum bonds have been issued this year, with a total issuance scale exceeding 500 billion RMB, although both the number and scale have decreased compared to the same period last year [1][2]. - The dim sum bond market has seen a significant increase in issuance volume and scale since 2022, with 2023 projected to reach 1,468 bonds and a scale of 925.11 billion RMB, and 2024 expected to further increase to 2,062 bonds and 1,205.52 billion RMB [5]. Factors Driving Growth - The rapid expansion of the dim sum bond market is attributed to several factors, including the rising costs of issuing US dollar bonds due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, leading domestic issuers to shift towards dim sum bonds for financing [7]. - The tightening of domestic city investment bond approvals has also created new financing channels through dim sum bonds, while the declining risk-free interest rates in China have made dim sum bonds more attractive compared to US dollar bonds [7][9]. Impact on RMB Internationalization - Dim sum bonds not only provide diversified financing options for domestic and Hong Kong enterprises but also significantly enhance the international status and influence of the RMB [9][10]. - The main issuers of dim sum bonds include city investment companies and financial institutions, with a notable increase in issuance from city investment companies in recent years [9]. Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - There is a growing demand from domestic investors for high-yield assets, alongside increased international interest in RMB-denominated assets, making offshore RMB bonds appealing to both domestic and foreign investors [12][13]. - The potential for further expansion in the dim sum bond market is supported by the expectation of a weakening US dollar and the continued attractiveness of RMB assets, which may lead to lower financing costs in the offshore market [13].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7325% and the 30-year yield at 1.9475%, both at year-high levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable change in market risk appetite is the core driver putting pressure on the bond market, with the stock market breaking key levels and the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3600 points, showing a weekly increase of 1.67% [2][3] - Commodity prices have surged, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 7% and polysilicon prices hitting new highs, which diminishes the relative attractiveness of bond assets [2][3] Group 2: Liquidity and Institutional Behavior - The liquidity situation has worsened since mid-July, with significant fluctuations in funding rates and the central bank's operations showing a net withdrawal of funds, leading to a spike in the 10-year treasury yield [2][4] - Institutional investors are accelerating withdrawals from the bond market, with redemption pressures on bond funds increasing significantly, and the net subscription index for public bond funds remaining negative since July 21, reaching a record single-day redemption of 29.2 on July 24 [4][5] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the future trajectory of the bond market, with some institutions cautious about the potential for further rate increases, while others believe yields are still at historical lows and may rise due to stable economic growth and improving inflation [5] - The current adjustment in the bond market is viewed as manageable, with the 10-year treasury yield rising approximately 7 basis points, which is still within a controllable range compared to historical adjustments [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjustment may have some short - term repair due to emerging positives, but in the long run, the probability of interest rates breaking through the lows is small, and the interest rate center is expected to fluctuate and rise [2][8]. - The bond market short - term adjustment is in place, with possible over - decline repair, but the downward amplitude may be limited, and heavy - position participation is not recommended. Strategies suggest being cautious in duration, reducing annual return expectations, and seizing short - term trading opportunities [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Adjustment Situation - This week, the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of equities and commodities, and the yield of each maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 6.72BP to 1.73% compared with July 18, and the 30Y Treasury yield reached 1.97%, with the 10Y - 1Y spread widening [5]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market Funding Aspect - The central bank began large - scale injections at the end of the month, showing an obvious attitude of care. On Thursday, the suddenly tightened funding became the "last straw" for the bond market, but on Friday, the central bank's operations led to a rapid shift to a loose funding situation, with a net injection of 8018 billion yuan [2][8]. Asset - Liability Aspect - The reduction of the insurance预定利率 is a short - term positive for the bond market, but it also has two - sided effects. It may lead to a reduction in the adjustment range of the bond market, but it may also cause a loss of insurance liability - side funds [2][10]. Institutional Behavior Aspect - Insurance has changed from a stable configuration strategy to a trading mindset. The weekly average net purchase scale in July decreased to 44.8 billion yuan, lower than that from February to March [2][15]. - During the bond market's weak adjustment this week, the main selling forces were funds and securities companies, while rural commercial banks increased their positions. Funds further reduced their duration, and the 10 - day average of the net purchase duration of funds has dropped to a relatively low historical quantile level [16]. Key Psychological Point and Technical Analysis - 1.75% is a key psychological point in the market, and the probability of a short - term rapid break to 1.80% is low [22]. - Technically, the bearish force has increased marginally, but short - term technical indicators show over - decline rebound signals. There may be over - decline trading opportunities next week, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level [23]. Long - Term Impact of Re - inflation Trading - The re - inflation trading caused by anti - involution is still in the initial stage, so its impact on the bond market is limited [24][27].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market is driven by a strong rebound in commodity prices, which has led to a rise in market risk appetite and a corresponding increase in stock prices [3][7]. - The current commodity price rebound is characterized as a "lagging pricing" response to the previous mild expansion of the credit cycle, rather than the start of a new macroeconomic cycle [4][10]. - The report suggests that the market environment in the second half of the year may resemble that of 2019 and 2022, with a mild expansion of the credit cycle followed by a potential decline in social financing momentum [5][25]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the recent commodity price increases are more of a "catch-up" effect due to previous underpricing in relation to the credit cycle recovery, rather than an indication of a new macroeconomic expansion [11][18]. - It is noted that the leading commodities in the recent price surge were those that had previously underperformed, indicating a tendency towards "oversold recovery" [14][17]. - The analysis highlights that the current credit cycle is nearing its peak, and any adjustments in the bond market are expected to be less severe than those observed in the first half of the year [6][30].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Shandong Branch is actively promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds to support the financing needs of technology enterprises and enhance the province's financial ecosystem for innovation [1][4]. Group 1: Technology Innovation Bonds - As of now, 17 enterprises and institutions have successfully issued technology innovation bonds totaling 22.7 billion yuan in the interbank market, positioning Shandong among the top provinces in terms of issuance scale [1][5]. - The technology innovation bonds cover a wide range of issuers, including state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, equity investment institutions, and financial institutions, thereby supporting various sectors such as electronic information, new energy, new materials, high-end chemicals, and biomedicine [5][6]. - The bonds feature long maturities and low interest rates, with some institutions issuing bonds with terms of 5 to 10 years and a minimum issuance interest rate of 1.63%, while the weighted average interest rate is only 2% [5][6]. Group 2: Innovative Measures and Support - The issuance of technology innovation bonds includes several innovative aspects, such as flexible issuance methods, diverse funding uses, and rich credit enhancement measures to better match the financing needs of technology enterprises [4][6]. - The People's Bank has established risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds to support private enterprises and equity investment institutions, aiming to reduce issuance costs and improve success rates [4][6]. - Future efforts will focus on enhancing the promotion of technology innovation bonds, exploring better mechanisms for central-local credit enhancement, and striving for more entities to issue these bonds to optimize the innovation ecosystem in Shandong [6].