Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [1][40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to maintain their current interest rates, while the decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are uncertain [1][40]. - The China-US trade issue remains a key focus. Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [1][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. One - Week Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of October 24th, 16:30, the US dollar index appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The offshore yuan, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the British pound depreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore yuan appreciated slightly against the US dollar [3]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and the policy showed characteristics of inheritance and innovation [3]. - The achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][13]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is highly consistent with the "14th Five - Year Plan" in core goals and adds three innovative directions in implementation paths [8][14]. - The four core views of the "15th Five - Year Plan" are stable growth, enhanced security, innovation promotion, and domestic demand expansion [9][15]. - In general, the "15th Five - Year Plan" pays more attention to systematicness, integrity, and synergy, with a policy logic shift from "development priority" to "balanced development and security," from "factor - driven" to "innovation - driven," and from "external demand - driven" to "domestic demand - driven" [10][16]. - Key word analysis shows that in the "15th Five - Year Plan," "high - quality development" is deepened from concept to practice, "scientific and technological self - reliance" is elevated in strategic status, "security" is emphasized as a "security barrier," "consumption" and "investment" strengthen the domestic demand - driven strategy, and "finance" shifts from system construction to embedded support [17][21][22][23][24]. 1.2 Weekly Review of the US Dollar Against the Chinese Yuan Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan remained stable, with a fluctuation range of 7.115 - 7.129. The appreciation - oriented central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and stable domestic macro - economic data jointly promoted the stable operation of the exchange rate [36]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was mostly in sync with the US dollar index. The US dollar index rebounded in the first half of last week due to the US government shutdown and the expected fiscal expansion policy in Japan [36][37]. 1.3 Market Outlook - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts are uncertain [40]. - Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [40]. 2. Observation of the Chinese Yuan Market 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0928, depreciating 21 basis points from the previous Friday. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of yuan depreciation expectation) [42]. 2.2 Investor Expectation and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectation**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with cross - border capital flows active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand relatively balanced. Although there was a small net outflow of cross - border funds in September, it turned into an inflow in October [49]. - **Overseas Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the spread between the offshore and on - shore yuan showed that overseas investors' sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation had declined [53]. - **Professional Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the closing price of the 1 - year NDF of the US dollar against the offshore yuan declined slightly. The short - term market sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the medium - term appreciation sentiment increased [55]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided [60][61]. - **Singapore Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided, as well as a comparison of the basis with the Hong Kong Exchange [63][64][66]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Various economic data such as GDP, industrial added value, and consumer price index were released. The "15th Five - Year Plan" goals were put forward, and policies in multiple fields such as agriculture, foreign exchange, and real estate were announced [69][70]. - **US**: Economic data such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index were released. There were also events such as the termination of trade negotiations with Canada and the impact of the government shutdown on inflation data [71][72]. - **UK**: The Bank of England started stress - testing the private credit market, and inflation data was released, leading traders to increase bets on interest rate cuts [73]. - **Eurozone**: Data showed that the net financial situation of EU member states deteriorated, and the PMI data of the eurozone improved [74]. - **Japan**: A new prime minister was elected, and economic measures and inflation data were announced [75]. - **Others**: South Korea issued foreign exchange stabilization bonds, and the global payment share of the yuan increased [76]. 3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Speeches Summary - Speeches from central banks in China, the United States, Japan, etc., were involved, including topics such as APEC meetings, interest rate policies, and exchange rate expectations [77][78][79]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A list of important data and events to be announced this week in different regions, including China, the United States, Canada, Japan, etc., is provided, along with their importance, previous values, and expected values [81]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Graphs showing the trends of exchange rates of major countries such as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Korean won, etc., are presented [83][85][86]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Graphs showing the trends of major asset classes such as London gold, VIX, Brent crude oil, etc., are presented [104][105][106]. 4.3 Funding Situation - Graphs showing central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are presented [114][116]. 4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Graphs showing the trends of the China - US interest rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield are presented [118][119]. 4.5 Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Index - A graph showing the trends of three major Chinese yuan exchange rate indexes is presented [122]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Graphs showing the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures are presented [124][126].

Group 1 - The stock market crash on October 24, 1929, marked a significant turning point in financial history, with the New York Stock Exchange experiencing a record trading volume of 12.9 million shares [1] - Prior to the crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had surged by 500% over nine years, leading to rampant speculation and high leverage through margin trading, with customer loan balances reaching $15 billion, double the federal budget [3] - Major financial institutions attempted a rescue operation by pooling $240 million to stabilize the market, but this effort was largely ineffective as stock prices continued to plummet [4] Group 2 - The crisis had global repercussions, with wheat futures in Chicago dropping 40% and the London Stock Exchange's FTSE index falling 12%, highlighting the interconnectedness and fragility of the international financial system [6] - The aftermath of the crash led to the bankruptcy of over 9,000 banks in the U.S. and a surge in global unemployment to 30 million, marking the end of an economic era as noted by economist John Maynard Keynes [6] - The crisis prompted significant financial reforms, including the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which established the FDIC and separated commercial and investment banking, reshaping modern financial regulation [8]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices experienced a significant drop, with gold and silver hitting their largest single-day declines since 2013 and 2021 respectively, influenced by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold prices fell by 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013, while spot silver prices dropped by 8.7%, the largest since 2021 [1]. - COMEX gold futures decreased by 5.28%, and COMEX silver futures fell by 7.67% [1]. - As of the latest update, COMEX gold futures closed down 4.94% at $4144.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed down 6.37% at $48.11 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The drop in precious metals prices lacks a clear catalyst, indicating that investor enthusiasm has not reached excessive levels, suggesting a rational boundary for gold price increases [2]. - The expectation of a U.S. government shutdown resolution and easing trade tensions may lead to a consolidation phase for gold prices in the coming weeks, with Citibank setting a target price of $4000 per ounce for the next 1-3 months [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the economy during the government shutdown and the potential end of quantitative tightening have bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The ongoing trend of central banks, including China, increasing their gold reserves supports the market, with China having added gold for 11 consecutive months [2][3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The current trading in the gold market revolves around expectations of monetary policy easing and diversification of asset allocation [4]. - Despite high gold prices suppressing some consumer demand, investment demand has surged, with global gold ETFs seeing a return of funds [4]. - Analysts suggest maintaining a bullish outlook on gold prices in the long term, while cautioning against chasing high prices in the short term due to potential technical corrections [5].

Core Viewpoint - International precious metal prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling below the $4,300 mark and spot silver dropping over 5% to below $50 per ounce for the first time since October 10 [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold declined over 2% during the day, currently priced at $4,256.82 per ounce [2][3]. - Spot silver fell over 5%, currently at $50.268 per ounce, after reaching a historical high of $54.49 per ounce on October 17 [2][5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - HSBC's recent report indicates that gold remains supported by strong investor sentiment and ongoing diversification by official institutions, predicting a continuation of the upward trend in gold prices until 2026 [5]. - Longcheng Futures' analysis highlights a threefold driving force for gold's upward trend: macroeconomic easing expectations, risk aversion sentiment, and capital inflows, while cautioning against potential technical corrections due to profit-taking [5].

Group 1 - HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 per ounce, expecting it to reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Despite record gold prices, physical gold demand in Asia remains strong, with India's premiums hitting a ten-year high before the festival season [1] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that gold prices could potentially reach $5,000 per ounce and may even touch $10,000 per ounce under current market conditions [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the U.S. economy and job market are facing recession risks due to government shutdowns, which may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The ongoing fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries like Europe and Japan is expected to reshape a new asset pricing system, favoring commodities like precious metals [3] - Short-term uncertainties from Trump's policies and U.S.-China tensions may affect the pace of gold price increases, with market volatility anticipated before the APEC meeting in late October [3]

Core Insights - The sixth China International Digital Economy Expo has commenced, focusing on the theme of "Innovative Paths and Practices in Industrial Digital Finance" [1] - The event aims to explore the integration of digital finance with industrial digitalization, leveraging technological advancements to empower financial institutions in their digital transformation [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The seminar is organized by the China International Digital Economy Expo Committee and features participation from various sectors including government, financial institutions, listed companies, technology firms, and academic institutions [1][2] - Over 150 professionals attended the seminar, including representatives from local governments, financial institutions, and universities [2] Group 2: Keynote Speakers and Themes - Notable speakers included experts from various financial and academic backgrounds, discussing topics such as the integration of digital finance and the digital economy, the role of AI in financial services, and the importance of financial reform [5][6][7] - The discussions highlighted the need for financial institutions to adapt to the digital economy and the importance of AI in enhancing operational efficiency [5][6] Group 3: Project Launch and Goals - The "Hebei Digital Financial Industrial Park" project was announced, with a total investment of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, covering over 80 acres and aiming to create a center for financial empowerment in Shijiazhuang [8] - The project is expected to contribute significantly to the development of digital finance in Hebei and support regional economic innovation [8][9] Group 4: Future Directions - The seminar concluded with discussions on the need for a robust data element market and risk prevention mechanisms to support the development of digital finance [9] - The event emphasized the importance of collaboration among various sectors to enhance the integration of finance and industry, aiming for more precise risk pricing and efficient resource allocation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The intense financial confrontation between China and the U.S. necessitates strategic planning to "reset and replace" the vast dollar assets held by China, including foreign exchange reserves and other hidden dollar assets [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Management - China must take necessary actions to strategically and systematically reset and replace its dollar assets to ensure financial security and enhance its influence in the global financial system [3][4]. - The goal is not to aggressively "liquidate" dollar assets but to optimize asset structure and hedge risks through sophisticated designs, transforming potential risks into solid leverage for future negotiations [3][4]. Group 2: Gold as a Strategic Anchor - The strategic value of gold needs to be reassessed, especially as the credibility of the dollar is increasingly questioned; gold's ultimate currency attributes are returning [4][6]. - China aims to establish a new international gold flow and credit center by encouraging countries to purchase gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and store it in Hong Kong, challenging the long-standing dominance of London and New York in global gold pricing and custody [4][7]. Group 3: Renminbi Expansion in Commodity Settlements - To reduce dependence on the dollar, China must expand the use of the renminbi in commodity settlements, particularly in oil, gas, and agricultural products [8][10]. - The strategy involves systematic promotion of renminbi settlements in diverse trade, leveraging China's position as the largest importer to negotiate long-term contracts priced in renminbi [10][11]. Group 4: Debt Replacement Strategy - A "renminbi debt replacement for dollar debt" plan is proposed to assist countries facing high dollar debt pressures, positioning China as a stabilizing force in regional finance [16][19]. - This plan allows countries to convert their dollar debts into renminbi debts, providing them with a lifeline while simultaneously promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [19][21]. Group 5: Comprehensive Strategic Framework - The three proposed strategies—gold collateral systems, expanding renminbi settlements, and debt replacement—form a cohesive strategic framework aimed at enhancing China's financial security and international influence [22][24]. - The timing is critical for proactive planning and implementation to secure a favorable position in the evolving global financial landscape [24].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been rising significantly, with London gold prices reaching $4208.757 per ounce as of October 16, 2025, marking a year-to-date increase of 61% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - London gold has consistently remained above the $4000 per ounce mark, with a notable increase since August due to strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [3][6]. - The scale of gold ETFs has rapidly expanded, with 14 commodity gold ETFs collectively nearing 200 billion yuan, reflecting a net inflow of 73.8 billion yuan from January to October 16, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Banking Sector Response - Major commercial banks, including Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, have raised the minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products to manage investor risk amid rising gold prices [2][5]. - The minimum purchase amount for Bank of China’s gold accumulation products was increased from 850 yuan to 950 yuan, while ICBC raised its minimum from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan [2]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in inquiries and trading activity in gold accumulation products, as traditional investment options yield lower returns, prompting a shift in asset allocation towards gold [4]. - Investors are increasingly attracted to gold accumulation due to its flexible investment thresholds and risk smoothing features, especially in a volatile market [3][4]. Group 4: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the potential devaluation of the US dollar, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and other precious metals [6][7]. - The expectation of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve has also contributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold prices [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with potential targets of $4300 per ounce if the Federal Reserve opts for further rate cuts [8]. - The ongoing high demand for gold from central banks and the geopolitical landscape are expected to support gold prices in the medium term [7][8].

今早一觉醒来，黄金又"涨疯了" 再创历史新高 现货黄金周四早盘升破4220美元/盎司，连续4个交易日创下新高，本周累涨200美元。 | COMEX重等 | | --- | | GC00Y延 | | 4241 2 今开 4225.1 最高 4248.0 最低 4214.5 | | 3484 0.94% 396 冠手 44496 持仓 37.38万 日增 | | 重多 结算 昨结 4201.6 | | 鱼客户 分时 王日 圓K 月к | | 均价:4233.9 最新:4241.2 39.6 0.94% | | 4248.01 1.10% 卖1 4241.2 | | 买1 4241.0 13 分时成交 | | 22:32 4241.5↑ 22:32 4241.5 | | 22:32 4241.61 | | 22:33 4241.7↑ 4201:6- | | 22:33 4241.7 | | 22:33 4241.81 | | 22:33 4241.91 | | 22:33 4241.74 | | 22:33 4241.54 | | 22:33 4241.44 | | 4241.4 4 400 == VV 4155. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is in the process of recovery, with the narrowing of the decline in CPI and PPI, and the improvement of export growth. However, the effective demand is still the core problem, and there may be incremental policies in the future to promote the stable recovery of prices [1]. - The impact of the current Sino - US trade friction on the foreign exchange market is expected to be weaker than that in April. The short - term outlook for Sino - US trade talks is not optimistic, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress is relatively high [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, with limited rebound space due to factors such as weak trading volume and the differentiation of leading industries [4]. - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The impact of recent data on the bond market is neutral to positive, and short - term trading should be based on a volatile mindset [5]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may continue to fluctuate or slightly rise in the short term, but there is a risk of a decline from the high point [7]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium and long term, but with increased short - term volatility. Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper has a spot premium, and aluminum is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [8][10][12]. - In the black market, steel products may need to cut production to relieve pressure, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure. Coal and coke prices are affected by downstream steel demand, and ferroalloys face challenges to cost support due to weak downstream demand [21][22][26]. - Crude oil is expected to remain weak, and LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro events, and methanol is also affected by macro trading and supply - demand factors [27][28][32]. - In the agricultural product market, for pigs, it is recommended to sell short at high prices, and for oilseeds, they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Oils may stop falling and stabilize [52][53][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. Overseas, the US government shutdown and trade policies also had an impact on the market [1]. - **Core Logic**: Although the National Day holiday had a good performance in personnel flow, there were contradictions in the consumption end. The subsequent economic recovery needs to focus on the residents' demand side. Policies are being promoted in an orderly manner, and there may be incremental policies. The export growth in September was supported by low - base effects and demand from emerging economies, and the anti - involution policy promoted the recovery of the price index [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1239 at 16:30 on the previous trading day, up 172 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: The current Sino - US trade friction is expected to have a weaker impact on the foreign exchange market than in April. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index rebounded on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased to 5033.75 billion yuan, and the futures contracts all rose with reduced volume [3]. - **Core Logic**: The rebound of the stock index was in line with the wide - range fluctuation expectation. Although the risk - aversion sentiment eased, the trading volume decreased significantly, and the rebound space was limited. The stock market was less sensitive to economic data and more focused on Sino - US trade relations and policy expectations [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down on Wednesday. The yield of spot bonds fluctuated during the day and slightly increased at the end of the day [4]. - **Core Logic**: The stock - bond relationship showed a seesaw effect. The recent data had a neutral to positive impact on the bond market, and the short - term trading of treasury bond futures should be based on a volatile mindset [5]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices were generally volatile. Except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts increased [5]. - **Core Logic**: The rise in futures prices was mainly due to the stable quotes of Maersk at the end of October and the price increase notice of Hapag - Lloyd. However, due to the unstable geopolitical and tariff issues, there was a risk of a decline from the high point [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to be strong. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4224.9 per ounce, up 1.48%, and silver 2512 contract closed at $52.525 per ounce, up 3.76% [8]. - **Core Logic**: The medium - and long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations are large. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [10]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overseas copper market fell in the second half of the night. Comex copper closed at $4.966 per pound, down 0.97%, and LME copper closed at $10576 per ton, down 0.02% [10]. - **Core Logic**: The spot market had a premium, and the futures price showed a Back structure. The 84000 level support was effectively broken, and the upper pressure level was at 86000 [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20910 yuan per ton, down 0.10%, and LME aluminum closed at $2744.5 per ton, up 0.18% [11]. - **Core Logic**: The release of the Fed's Beige Book increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum with certain support [12]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22015 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [13]. - **Core Logic**: The overnight opening of zinc prices was lower, possibly due to the stop of inventory reduction in LME. The domestic zinc market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the short - term price may face downward pressure [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121180 yuan per ton, up 0.08%, and the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan per ton, down 0.24% [13]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term downward driving force has weakened. The new energy sector is in the peak season, and the demand for downstream procurement is high. However, the price of nickel iron is weak, and the stainless steel market is also affected by factors such as profit pressure and demand [14]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 281,700 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [14]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of tin remain unchanged, and it is still regarded as a long - term bullish product. The support level at 278,000 yuan is stable [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 72,720 yuan per ton on Tuesday, up 0.06% [16]. - **Core Logic**: The market demand is good, and the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts may support the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8570 yuan per ton on Wednesday, up 0.59%, and the main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 50,865 yuan per ton, up 1.75% [17]. - **Core Logic**: With the arrival of the dry season, the production reduction of industrial silicon enterprises may increase, and the price may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is in a game between news and fundamentals, and the market is expected to focus on relevant events such as the "October platform establishment" and "November warehouse receipt cancellation" [18][19]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,110 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [19]. - **Core Logic**: The lead price fluctuated narrowly. The supply is affected by the high silver price, and the demand is expected to have potential in the Southeast Asian market. The inventory may accumulate in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a certain downward possibility [19][20]. Black Market - **Steel Products**: The steel market continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of steel mills continued to shrink. It may be necessary to cut production to relieve pressure, and the overall market is expected to be under pressure [21]. - **Iron Ore**: Under the premise of weak steel demand and high inventory, the iron ore price has no basis for a trend - upward. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, and remain in a range - bound oscillation [22][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated, and the coal - coke inventory structure is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies limit the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter, and the winter storage this year is expected to support the price [25]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand persists. The cost support is facing challenges, and there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term [26]. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel [27]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand factors. The current supply - demand fundamentals are unfavorable, and the price is expected to remain weak [28]. LPG - **Market Review**: The LPG2511 contract closed at 4138 (+11), and the LPG2512 contract closed at 4019 (+39) [28]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic LPG fundamentals have little change. The profit - shrinking drive still exists, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [29]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: The PX supply is expected to increase in October, and the PTA load has decreased. The polyester demand has a seasonal improvement, but the overall impact on the price is limited [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA trend is mainly driven by macro - factors and oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation, and consider expanding the processing fee of TA01 below 280 [32]. MEG - Bottle Chips - **Market Review**: The inventory of East China ports has increased, and the supply of some devices has changed [32]. - **Core Logic**: The MEG fundamentals have a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The price is expected to move in the range of 3850 - 4250, and it can consider selling put options on eg2601 - P - 3850 when there is an over - decline [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol 01 contract closed at 2298 on Wednesday [35]. - **Core Logic**: The methanol market is affected by macro - trading and supply - demand factors. The 01 contract has high supply and high demand, but the inventory pressure has not been resolved. It is recommended to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [36]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6595 (-7) [36]. - **Core Logic**: The PP supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is following the cost - end decline, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [38]. PE - **Market Review**: The plastic 2601 contract closed at 6910 (-8) [39]. - **Core Logic**: The PE supply is increasing, and the demand recovery is slow. The inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5579 (-18), and the EB2511 contract closed at 6540 (-4) [42]. - **Core Logic**: The pure benzene supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak, with a difficult - to - change inventory - accumulation pattern. The styrene supply is tightening in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side operation [42][43]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The FU01 contract closed at 2683 yuan per ton [43]. - **Core Logic**: The fuel oil supply is tightening, and the demand is stable. The crack spread has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the crack spread [43][44]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: The BU11 contract closed at 3250 yuan per ton [44]. - **Core Logic**: The asphalt supply is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. The cost is expected to decline, and the price may have a short - term upward opportunity during the demand peak season [45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure in the long - term is high, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is stable, and the price is limited by high inventory but has cost support [46]. - **Glass**: The inventory is high, the production and sales are average, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is waiting for industrial policy guidance [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market is oscillating weakly, and there is an expectation of non - aluminum replenishment in the future, but it needs to be observed [48]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The sp2601 contract closed at 5164 (-6) [48]. - **Core Logic**: The pulp market sentiment is weak, affected by factors such as the decline in the price of foreign - sourced softwood pulp, high port inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. Logs - **Market Review**: The lg2511 contract closed at 793 (5.5) [50]. - **Core Logic**: As the delivery approaches, the long - position receiving willingness is insufficient, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse spread position [50]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. Pay attention to the farmers' replenishment behavior and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [52]. - **Oilseeds**: The internal market is expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by Sino - US trade relations and the supply and demand of soybeans [53]. - **Oils**: The export of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the internal market may stop falling and stabilize [54].