Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the futures trends of various black - series commodities, indicating that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations; logs will fluctuate repeatedly. The cost provides bottom support for silicon iron and manganese silicon, while the expectations for coke and coking coal are volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 771.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the position increased by 9,848 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped by 4.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) rose by 1.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); the trading volume was 854,671 hands, and the position decreased by 35,070 hands. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%); the trading volume was 487,804 hands, and the position increased by 16,084 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spreads also changed accordingly [8]. - **News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 16, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.45 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.36 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 18.59 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 6.29 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 18.46 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 73.74 million tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 24.58 million tons, and the total increased by 139.96 million tons. In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% decrease month - on - month, and imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% increase month - on - month [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost provides bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron 2511, the closing price was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2601, it was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2511, the closing price was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2601, it was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: On October 17, the prices of different grades of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions were reported. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of silicon manganese showed different changes. An Inner Mongolia silicon iron plant carried out maintenance on two furnaces, with one recently restarted and the other expected to restart around the 25th. Steel mills such as Jinshenglan and Hegang had price adjustments and procurement volume changes for silicon iron and silicon manganese. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in ports decreased [12][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][17][18] - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2601, the previous day's closing price was 1,179 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.5%); for coke J2601, it was 1,676 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.2%). Spot prices and various spreads also changed [18]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [19] Logs - **Trend**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][20] - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [22]

Core Viewpoint - Yimen Yuanchuan Trading Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1.2 million RMB, focusing on the recycling of renewable resources and related sales activities [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of Yimen Yuanchuan Trading Co., Ltd. is Ma Xueyong [1] - The company’s registered capital is 1.2 million RMB [1] - The business scope includes licensed projects such as recycling of renewable resources (excluding production waste metals) [1] - General projects include sales of renewable resources, coal and its products, timber, metal ores, processing of renewable resources, timber processing, handling and transportation, and earth and stone engineering construction [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - **News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - **Fundamentals**: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][6]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situations and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight回调 [2][7]. - Silicon iron is likely to have wide - range fluctuations as the quotes in the main production areas are loosening [2][11]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with the downward movement of manganese ore port quotes [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are subject to repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to experience repeated fluctuations [2][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 782.0 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan or 2.80%. The previous day's position was 499,799 hands, an increase of 14,460 hands. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,061 yuan/ton and 3,241 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.81% and 0.70%. Spot prices in major regions decreased. There were also changes in basis and spreads [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed that the daily output of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventory increased by 8.2% compared with the previous ten - day period. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.4% month - on - month. The weekly data on October 8 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and some manganese ore decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 13, the quotes of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed, and the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased. The manganese ore market is affected by macro - sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm, and the proportion of US - built or - operated ships in imported manganese ore ships is relatively small [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 0.7%. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, with some small fluctuations in the week - on - week and day - on - day comparisons [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situation and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight correction [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are likely to have wide - range oscillations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal will have weak oscillations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][14]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures price (12601) closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.19%. Spot prices of various imported ores decreased by 2 yuan/ton, while some domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased. Spot prices in major regions also declined. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff. In August 2025, China's steel exports decreased slightly, while imports increased. According to the October 8th weekly data, steel production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and there were changes in various spreads [10]. - **News**: On October 13th, the prices of silicon iron 72 in some regions decreased. Hebei Steel's 10 - month silicon iron and manganese silicon tenders decreased in quantity. Yunnan Kunsteel's silicon iron purchase price decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals decreased, while most coke prices remained unchanged. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - **News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs, stating that corresponding measures would be taken if the US persists [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while some had slight changes [17]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - **Trend strength**: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - **Macro and industry news**: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - **Trend strength**: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - **Macro and industry news**: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - **Trend strength**: -1 [18]

Trade Relations - The meeting between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on trade issues, with Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs on Canada, which he believes Canada will accept willingly [1][2] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada, valued at $900 billion, is under significant strain due to ongoing tariff disputes [3] - Canada’s exports to the U.S. have dropped to their lowest level since 2021, while imports have returned to 2022 levels, indicating a decline in trade activity [4] Tariffs and Economic Impact - U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber are severely impacting key Canadian industries, leading to job losses and a slowdown in business investment [4] - Trump increased tariffs on non-compliant goods under the USMCA from 25% to 35%, exacerbating the trade conflict [4] - Carney's government has attempted to ease tensions by canceling most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, focusing only on sectors still affected by U.S. tariffs [4] Future Agreements and Cooperation - Carney aims to negotiate a short-term agreement to lower or eliminate certain industry tariffs, with a focus on collaboration in various sectors [4] - The Canadian government is also preparing for the 2026 review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, indicating a long-term strategy for trade relations [4] - In response to U.S. criticisms regarding defense spending, Canada has committed to reaching NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP this year, with plans to increase it to 5% by 2035 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. and Canada are making significant progress towards a trade agreement, although specific timelines and negotiation paths remain unclear [1][2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney emphasized that Canada is the largest source of foreign investment in the U.S. and projected that investments could increase to $1 trillion over the next five years if a favorable agreement is reached [2] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada is currently valued at $900 billion, with ongoing tensions due to tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canadian steel, aluminum, and automotive products [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. has raised tariffs on goods not meeting USMCA standards from 25% to 35%, contributing to a decline in Canadian manufacturing investment and economic contraction in the second quarter [2] - Discussions also included the review mechanism for the USMCA set for 2026, with Trump indicating a willingness to renegotiate the trilateral agreement or pursue bilateral trade agreements that favor the U.S. [2] - Carney's recent visit to Mexico aimed to strengthen trilateral cooperation, particularly in critical mineral resources, highlighting the importance of a robust North American supply chain [2]

Core Insights - The WTO has revised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 upwards to 2.4%, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports before tariff hikes, and strong trade growth in other regions [1][5] - However, the forecast for 2026 has been significantly downgraded to 0.5%, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][5] Group 1: Trade Growth Drivers - In the first half of 2025, global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year, with a 6% increase in current dollar terms following a 2% growth in 2024 [4] - Key drivers of this growth include early North American imports, favorable macroeconomic conditions such as deflation and supportive fiscal policies, and robust growth in emerging markets [4] - AI-related products, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, contributed nearly half of the overall trade growth, with a year-on-year value increase of 20% [4] Group 2: Trade Forecast Adjustments - The WTO anticipates that global merchandise trade growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and further to 0.5% in 2026, reflecting the impact of higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainties [5] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is set at 2.7%, with a slight decrease to 2.6% in 2026 [5] - The WTO emphasizes that the main downside risks to this forecast include the spread of trade restrictions and policy uncertainties across more economies and sectors [5] Group 3: Regional Trade Performance - Asia and Africa are expected to achieve the fastest export growth in 2025, while North America is projected to experience a decline [6] - By 2026, export performance in North America and Europe is expected to improve, although all regions are anticipated to see a decline in import performance [6] Group 4: Impact on Services Trade - The WTO has downgraded its forecast for global commercial services trade due to indirect impacts from tariffs, with transportation and tourism sectors expected to see reduced growth rates [7] - The expected growth rate for transportation services in 2025 is 2.5%, down from 4.5% in 2024, while tourism is projected to grow by 3.1%, a decrease from 11% the previous year [7] - Digital services are expected to show slightly stronger growth, with a forecast of 6.1% compared to 5.7% in 2024 [7]