Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of each year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with significant gains in 2015 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index up 4.6%) and notable declines in 2023 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index down 1.5%) [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They recommend monitoring sectors like battery, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and chemical products for investment opportunities [8][9]. - The article suggests a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while avoiding frequent trading to minimize costs and risks [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [6][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in the beauty and personal care sector during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with significant sales growth across various platforms [4][28]. - The overall retail sales growth in October 2025 was 2.9%, surpassing market expectations, with notable increases in gold and jewelry sales, while categories like automotive and home appliances saw declines [3][24]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of specific companies, such as Proya and Marubi, which achieved substantial sales growth during the Double Eleven event [4][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of November 10-14, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of 4.06%, 2.28%, and 3.75% respectively, ranking 3rd, 12th, and 4th among 31 primary industries [15][17]. Key Industry Data and News - In October 2025, retail sales grew by 2.9%, with jewelry sales increasing by 37.6%. In contrast, retail sales for home appliances and automotive categories declined by 14.6% and 6.6% respectively [3][24]. - The total retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 reached 41.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.28% [24]. Key Company Announcements - Marubi plans to issue H shares and apply for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and competitiveness [36]. - The founder of Yonghui Supermarket intends to reduce his shareholding, potentially affecting the company's stock performance [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, and Chaohongji, which are positioned well within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [6][37].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, experiencing fluctuations throughout the week[1] - The average daily trading volume remained stable above 20 trillion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector, particularly social services, agricultural products, and commercial trade, showed significant recovery in trading activity[1] - The healthcare and consumer staples sectors led the weekly gains, with excess returns of 3.78% and 3.38% respectively[26] Investment Style Trends - Small-cap stocks demonstrated sustained activity, while growth stocks generally experienced declines[5] - Institutional heavyweights across various indices saw weekly adjustments, with the fund overlap index down by 1.76%[20] Market Sentiment - The micro-cap stock index's trading heat continued to recover, indicating improved market sentiment[5] - The overall risk appetite in the market remains balanced and defensive, reflecting cautious investor behavior[1] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes that historical data does not guarantee future performance, highlighting the potential for market volatility due to macroeconomic changes[34]

证券研究报告 | 商贸零售 | | --- | 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 15 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 10 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，海南离岛免税新政 11 月 1 日 起正式实施 ——新消费行业周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.14） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 10 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%。10 月 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%，扣除食品和 能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续第 6 个月扩大，整体表现超预期。其 中，扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动，服务价格上涨 0.8%， 涨幅比上月扩大 0.2pct，增速亮眼，飞机票和宾馆住宿价格分别上涨 8.9%和 2.8%； 医疗服务和家政服务价格分别上涨 2.4%和 2.3%。 海南离岛免税新政 11 月 1 日起正式实施，周度免税数据高增。海口海关 11 月 8 日 公布数据，11 月 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.60 CNY [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance remains stable, and it is expected to continue driving growth through further optimization of digital capabilities and deepening diverse customer needs [2]. - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 11.116 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.74%. However, the company demonstrated resilience in the market [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 194 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 10.25% [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 38.312 billion CNY in 2023 to 57.441 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 18.5%, 12.3%, 8.8%, 12.5%, and 9.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 548 million CNY in 2023 to 1.116 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth in 2024 and 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.97 CNY in 2023 to 1.97 CNY in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 10.745 billion CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 17.02 to 22.80 CNY [6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 12.62 CNY and a price-to-book ratio of 1.5 [7]. Profitability Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 2.5% by 2027, reflecting a slight decrease from previous years [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from non-recurring gains related to the transfer of equity in Beijing Urban Huangsi Commercial Co., which will impact the financials positively in 2025 [11][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in enhancing the recruitment process, which is anticipated to significantly improve operational efficiency [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index around the 4000-point mark have led to increased adjustments in stock ratings by brokerages, with a total of 23 stocks upgraded and 40 downgraded since the end of October. The electronic sector saw the highest number of upgrades, while consumer and pharmaceutical sectors experienced significant divergence in ratings [1]. Group 1: Stock Rating Adjustments - A total of 23 stocks have had their ratings upgraded by brokerages, while 40 stocks have been downgraded [1]. - The electronic sector had the most stocks with upgraded ratings, indicating strong institutional interest [1]. - Significant rating divergence was observed in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, suggesting varied outlooks among analysts [1]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages have begun releasing their investment strategies for 2026, with a generally positive outlook for A-shares in the coming year [1]. - CITIC Securities noted that the Chinese capital market is gradually transitioning to a mature market, predicting a "slow bull" market with lower volatility during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.27% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 61.67 billion shares and a transaction value of 893.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: Increased by 1.77% with a transaction value of 8.62 billion yuan, led by Sinopec Oilfield Service, which rose by 10.21% [1] - Banking: Increased by 1.52% with a transaction value of 15.41 billion yuan, led by Agricultural Bank of China, which rose by 2.89% [1] - Home Appliances: Increased by 1.01% with a transaction value of 14.36 billion yuan, led by Beiyikang, which rose by 10.78% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - Communication: Decreased by 1.33% with a transaction value of 34.89 billion yuan, led by Yongding Co., which fell by 5.45% [2] - Electric Power Equipment: Decreased by 1.25% with a transaction value of 148.46 billion yuan, led by Canadian Solar, which fell by 13.92% [2] - National Defense and Military Industry: Decreased by 0.92% with a transaction value of 16.72 billion yuan, led by Triangle Defense, which fell by 7.34% [2] Stock Performance - A total of 1,864 stocks rose, with 49 hitting the daily limit, while 3,394 stocks fell, with 2 hitting the lower limit [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the IPO activities in Jiangsu province for October 2025, indicating a stable trend with 9 new A-share companies listed, similar to previous months [1][10]. Group 1: IPO Overview - In October 2025, Jiangsu saw the listing of 1 new company, Changjiang Energy Materials, on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a fundraising amount of 1.84 billion [2][10]. - For the first ten months of 2025, Jiangsu ranked first among provinces with 21 new A-share companies, surpassing Guangdong by 4 companies [10][17]. - The total fundraising amount for Jiangsu's IPOs in the first ten months reached 129.27 billion, placing it third nationally [17][29]. Group 2: City-wise IPO Distribution - Suzhou led the province with 7 new A-share companies in the first ten months, followed by Wuxi and Changzhou with 3 each [10][17]. - The distribution of new A-share companies by city in October 2025 shows that Jiangsu's cities are actively participating in the IPO market, with various cities contributing to the overall count [5][10]. Group 3: Fundraising Analysis - The total fundraising for Jiangsu's IPOs in October was relatively low at 1.84 billion, indicating a need for more robust fundraising activities [17]. - Suzhou's total fundraising amount for the first ten months was 57.48 billion, maintaining its position as the top city in Jiangsu for IPO fundraising [17][13]. Group 4: Sector and Board Distribution - The newly listed companies in Jiangsu for the first ten months were distributed across four boards, with the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) having the highest number at 7 companies [17][11]. - The breakdown of the newly listed companies by board shows a diverse participation across different sectors, reflecting the province's economic landscape [11][17]. Group 5: IPO Pipeline and Support - As of the end of October, there were 301 companies in the IPO application queue nationwide, with Jiangsu having 51, ranking third in the country [29]. - Jiangsu also leads in the number of companies undergoing IPO guidance, with 243 firms, indicating a strong support system for potential IPO candidates [29][26].

（文章来源：新华财经） 社会服务方向，2025年服务业消费整体呈现分化复苏，宏观经济、财富效应、业态竞争、政策引导是核 心影响变量。展望2026年，需求端，K型复苏趋势预期依旧，同时泛中端消费龙头低基数效应显现，出 海需求从试点探索走向规模化复制。供给端，常态化供给创新保障情绪价值溢价，政策引导起到积极助 推作用，Al赋能效率提升和成本优化。推荐三条主线：一是景气回升中需求弹性斜率较高的博彩公司和 现制饮品头部品牌；二是休闲出行中的优质标的；三是顺周期板块中经营稳健、具备成长性的龙头。 新华财经上海11月12日电中信证券消费产业首席分析师姜娅发表观点称，复盘过去三十年四轮牛市行情 中的消费表现可见，消费往往在经济基本面开始回暖时表现，自身的盈利弹性决定其上涨的持续性和弹 性。由于当前宏观环境仍然偏弱，消费景气的自身修复预计仍需时间，短期消费整体beta性机会可关注 财政刺激类政策的可能性。同时，基于当前产业观察，2026年建议重点关注财富效应传导、供给端优化 推动的经营拐点机会。而长期配置再次强调重视消费结构的变化，在新产品/品类（情绪和健康两大高 确定性需求）、新技术（AI+和生物技术）、新渠道（性价比需求 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.39% to 4002.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.40% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.01 trillion RMB, with over 2700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the retail and real estate sectors led the gains, while the communication and electronics sectors lagged [2][8] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 1.18% and the Nasdaq down by 0.25% [2][8] Important News - The People's Bank of China reported a reasonable growth in financial totals, with the social financing scale stock and M2 money supply growing by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [3][9] - The U.S. announced a suspension of export control rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, affecting companies on the U.S. export control "entity list" [3][9] A-Share Market Performance - The overall net profit of A-share companies in Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 6%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [10][12] - The revenue of all A-share companies in Q3 2025 increased by 1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth [10][12] - The small-cap stocks demonstrated strong performance, with the ChiNext Index and Northbound A-shares showing revenue growth exceeding 10% [11][12] Sector Analysis - In the automotive sector, the fund's heavy positions decreased, transitioning from overweight to underweight, with total market value dropping by 15.41% quarter-on-quarter [14][15] - The mechanical equipment sector maintained a low allocation level, with total market value increasing by 38.94% quarter-on-quarter [22][23] - The electric power equipment sector saw a significant increase in fund holdings, with total market value rising by 58.76% quarter-on-quarter [25][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the technology growth sector, particularly in AI and related industries, as they continue to show high growth potential [13][29] - In the automotive sector, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with strong brand and market advantages, especially those expanding into overseas markets [17][29] - For the electric power equipment sector, the report highlights the importance of grid upgrades and new energy storage solutions as key investment opportunities [32][29]