| Million | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月05日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ななな | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | ☆☆☆ | PTA | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | ななな | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | な女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚 ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/5 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/30 2025/12/31 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 436. 1 | 432. 2 | -3.90 | 成交情况: PTA:期货休市,业者观望为主,现货市场暂未闻成交 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1974.8 | 1969.2 | -5.66 | 。南美某国原油物流受阻,利好原油市场,但华东55 | | | | | | | 万吨聚酯工厂开始检修,预估PTA市场将处于成本支撑 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 6231 | 1.6270 | 0. 0038 | 与需求下降的多空消息博弈之中。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 894 | 894 | 0 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 359 | 364 | ...

能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2602 | 432 | -6 | -1.46 | 5.20 | -1.41 | 2.96 | -0.08 | | 液化气 | PG2602 | 4,132 | 40 | 0.98 | 8.66 | 1.37 | 5.94 | -0.32 | | 甲醇 | MA2602 | 2,207 | 21 | 0.96 | 13.53 | 3.48 | 4.46 | -0.95 | | 乙二醇 | EG2602 | 3,649 | -57 ...

交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 1月4日 | 12月31日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): F海 | 15250 | 15250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 | 15250 | -355 | 15605 | 4395.77% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | 14700 | -905 | 15605 | 1724.31% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 51.00 | 50.85 | 0.15 | 0.29% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.20 | 54.70 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 原料:市场主流价:海南 | 13100 | 13000 | 100 | 0.77% | 元/吨 | | 月间价差 | | | | | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 短纤（PF） 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 观点小结 01 01 CONTENTS 2 02 本周短纤观点：上下游矛盾延续，高位震荡，关注聚酯减产幅度 供应 工厂开工提升至98.5%，后续部分工厂开始计划节前停工，目前集中在1月底附近。 需求 内需终端订单走弱，纱线、织造、坯布环节继续降负，后续需求预期较弱部分下游可能考虑1月中旬提前放假。原料大幅拉涨过程中终端补库 增加，但大多是在上周末附近低位促销时补库，周内面临持续大涨的价格，产销总体偏弱。越到下游跟涨越是艰难。短纤名义去库，实物库存 累库，静态库存 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本驱动偏强 供应 国产供应端福佳大化100万吨装置重启，印度GAIL采购中东PX货源，为3-4月开车做准备。国内PX开工在88%。 需求 PTA国产装置方面，盘面05合约加工费上涨至300+元/吨，略显偏高，新凤鸣1期250万吨、中泰化学120万吨装置重启，开工率预计回升，未 来关注逸盛新材料360万吨检修计划，总体开工率维持在71%左右。 观点 成本支撑偏强，正套持有。1月3日，美国对委内瑞拉展开空袭并成功抓获总统马杜拉，市场预计该地原油出口短期或下滑30-60万桶/日，油价 在此背景下短线预计冲高，对PX形成估值上的支撑。 估值 PXN357美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差149美金/吨（-8），美国PX-MX价147美金/吨（+14），山东PX- MX价1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber: In the short term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium term, it is weak. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual output of short fiber increases, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued to hold [7]. - Bottle chips: It shows a volatile and weak trend. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual supply in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The futures margin is on the low side [8][96]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operating rate has increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mainly around the end of January [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Some downstream factories may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. The short fiber is nominally destocking, but the physical inventory is accumulating. The short - fiber inventory index has risen to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [7]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Observe long spreads at low prices and intervene when the valuation is reasonable. 3) Continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [8]. Upstream Viewpoint Summary No relevant information provided. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, also neutral [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operations have resumed, and new devices are being put into production. Overall operations may decline from late January [9]. - Demand: Downstream operations have increased month - on - month. The average operation rate of beverage factories has recovered to around 70%. The operation rates of the edible oil and sheet sectors have also increased month - on - month. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 55 - 60 tons. Factories are destocking, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days [9]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads (for contracts after March). 3) No cross - variety strategy [9]. Base and Calendar Spread - The price has回调 from a high level, the base has significantly recovered, the near - term calendar spread is still affected by deliverable products, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [21]. Spot Price and Important Spreads - The price has been rising continuously, and the trading sentiment is fair. The average weekly quotation is 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [24]. - Compared with PVC, the substitution drive is low; compared with PP and other general plastics, the cost - effectiveness is prominent, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2168 tons (CCF caliber). After the new device of Fuhai is put into production, the production capacity base will rise to 2198 tons. The bottle - chip load this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [32]. Raw Materials - PTA load is low, and the processing fee has slightly recovered; ethylene glycol load has rebounded to a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating [33][39]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip processing fee is passively compressed, and the spot processing fee is around 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is around 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. Inventory - The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is neutral, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days. According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 323 tons, and in December it is 344 tons [49]. Device Changes - Some devices are under maintenance, and some new devices have been put into production. Pay attention to the progress of new device implementation [55][56]. Demand - The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation of beverage enterprises has slightly recovered, the edible oil factory operation is at a medium - to - low level, and the demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [59][60][61]. Global Trade Flow of Bottle Chips - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. China's main bottle - chip export trade flows include China - Southeast Asia - South Asia, China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe, etc. [73]. Export Situation of Bottle Chips - In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 65.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 708.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [80]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Bottle Chips - There is a trend of inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is moderate [88]. Textile and Apparel Industry Retail - In November 2025, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [132]. Export - In November 2025, the export of textile and apparel decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 17491.9 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [140][144].

消息面 华东一套年产50万吨聚酯瓶片装置1月初因故计划检修10-15天。 12月31日，郑商所瓶片期货仓单664张，环比上个交易日减少15张。 机构观点 截至2025年12月31日，国内华东水瓶片年均价5936.52元/吨，出口777.99美元/吨FOB上海港，分别较去年下跌12.01%和11.09%。 新世纪期货： 原料高位震荡，叠加节前最后一个工作日，业内入市心态不佳。供需僵持状态下，聚酯瓶片市场或区间盘整运行。 瑞达期货（002961）： 俄乌和谈未出现实质性进展，国际原油上涨，影响聚酯走势。供应方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量33.36万吨，较上期持平，产能利用率73.05%，较上期 持平。中国聚酯行业周度平均产能利用率87.19%，较上周+0.29%。出口方面，11月中国聚酯瓶片出口53.30万吨，较上月增加0.99万吨，或 +1.90%。2025年1-11月累计出口量586.52万吨，较去年同期增加63.64万吨，涨幅12.17%。短期瓶片开工率持平，当前生产毛利-178左右，利润亏 损加剧，短期瓶片价格预计跟随原料价格波动，主力合约上方关注6250附近压力，下方关注5900附近支撑。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion. Demand remains robust, with high domestic PTA operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread also supports aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, maintaining high PTA consumption, increasing market willingness for domestic products, and rapidly strengthening the basis. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. In the context of the commodity market's enthusiastic sentiment, PTA prices are significantly boosted [2] - Overseas ethylene glycol (MEG) plant maintenance plans are increasing, with two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, scheduled to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian MEG plants starting planned maintenance. The inventory at East China MEG ports remains at 750,000 tons. Against the backdrop of continuously falling coal prices, MEG prices struggle to gain effective support. With the successive commissioning of new plants, market supply pressure continues to increase. The return of coal - based MEG plants exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and MEG prices may receive support under the carbon neutrality background [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 434.8 yuan/barrel on December 29, 2025, to 436.1 yuan/barrel on December 30, 2025, an increase of 1.3 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1962.3 yuan/ton to 1974.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.55 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6210 to 1.6231, an increase of 0.0021; CFR China PX increased from 891 to 894, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread increased from 349 to 359, an increase of 11; PTA main futures price rose from 5122 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 5065 yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; spot processing fee rose from 334.1 yuan/ton to 352.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.9 yuan/ton; disk processing fee rose from 391.1 yuan/ton to 396.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton; main basis rose from (63) to (50), an increase of 13; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 114,648 to 107,482, a decrease of 7,166 [2] - **MEG**: MEG main futures price rose from 3817 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (145.22) yuan/ton to (139.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 6.2 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 3687 yuan/ton to 3694 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; main basis remained at - 140 [2] - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 86.28%; PTA operating rate remained at 74.63%; MEG operating rate remained at 61.76%; polyester load remained at 88.81% [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; POY cash - flow decreased from (246) to (303), a decrease of 57; FDY150D/96F decreased from 6810 yuan/ton to 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; FDY cash - flow decreased from (506) to (588), a decrease of 82; DTY150D/48F decreased from 7760 yuan/ton to 7745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; DTY cash - flow decreased from (256) to (303), a decrease of 47; long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 41%, an increase of 1%; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 154 to 142, a decrease of 12; short - fiber sales rate increased from 52% to 54%, an increase of 2%; semi - bright chip increased from 5755 yuan/ton to 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash - flow decreased from (161) to (188), a decrease of 27; chip sales rate increased from 51% to 81%, an increase of 30% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest restarted after shutting down early last week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].