Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins is reshaping the global financial landscape in the digital age, reflecting a dual tension between market credit and state credit, and leading to a new equilibrium in monetary functions and governance [1][2][10]. Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins represent a compromise between market and state credit, allowing for the issuance of "quasi-currency" under regulatory frameworks in places like the US and Hong Kong [11]. - The evolution of stablecoins has transitioned from algorithmic stability and collateralized assets to a mainstream model anchored by fiat currencies, indicating a reliance on state credit for stability [10][11]. Group 2: Impact on Global Financial System - Stablecoins may lead to a redefinition of monetary functions, pushing sovereign currencies to reassess their roles and promoting a "functional division" in the global monetary system [12]. - The distribution of financial power could shift, with the potential emergence of a multi-currency system comprising "sovereign currencies + scenario-based stablecoins," challenging the dominance of a single currency [13]. - Stablecoins signify a transformation in the relationship between state, market, and technology, suggesting that monetary power is no longer solely state-controlled but is influenced by technological intermediaries [14]. Group 3: US Interest in Stablecoins - The US's enthusiasm for stablecoins is closely tied to maintaining the dollar's dominance, as stablecoins can convert market credit into monetary power, especially in light of rising national debt [15][16]. - The use of short-term US Treasury bonds as collateral for stablecoins could alleviate liquidity pressures on US debt, reinforcing the dollar's global status [15]. - The US is positioning itself to dominate the "metaverse currency" landscape, with stablecoins potentially becoming the universal currency in digital economies, thereby extending dollar hegemony into the digital realm [18]. Group 4: China's Strategic Response - China should develop a stablecoin strategy that aligns with its economic context, focusing on supply chain advantages and ensuring that stablecoins serve the real economy [19][20]. - Collaboration between stablecoins and the digital yuan is essential, with both aiming to enhance the integration of digital and real economies [20]. - A strategy of "innovation-led + inclusive collaboration" is recommended for developing a stablecoin ecosystem that balances risk and efficiency while leveraging China's manufacturing strengths [21].

Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The depreciation of the US dollar has reached a three-year low, raising concerns about the stability of the US economy and potentially shrinking American savings [1] - The dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% this year, while the euro has risen to its highest level in nearly four years [1] - The decline in the dollar's value may benefit domestic companies exporting US goods, but it will increase costs for American international travel and imported goods [1] Group 2 - Factors influencing the dollar's value include demand from central banks and financial institutions, as well as the overall fiscal condition of the US, including inflation rates, trade relations, and debt [2] - Economists warn of a potential economic recession or slowdown in the US, leading investors to reduce their investments in American assets [2] - The dollar's depreciation was anticipated regardless of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, as indicated by experts [2] Group 3 - Trump's policies, particularly the comprehensive tariff policy, are seen as accelerating the dollar's depreciation [3] - The decline in the dollar's exchange rate will increase international travel costs for Americans and raise prices for imported goods [3] - Companies exporting US goods may gain a competitive advantage due to the lower prices of American products and services in foreign markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index experienced a decline of 0.55%, closing at 97.8976 points, following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in late 2025, leading to a sharp downward trend in the market [1] Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index traded within a range of 98.276 to 97.707 points throughout the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.60%, ending at 1200.93 points, with a trading range of 1207.36 to 1199.16 points [1]

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Market Overview - Spot gold fell by 1.27% on Friday, closing at $3309.47 per ounce, marking a near three-week low; COMEX gold futures dropped 1.31% to $3331.00 per ounce [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May exceeded expectations with an increase of 139,000 jobs, compared to the forecast of 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, diminishing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Market expectations for a September rate cut decreased from 88% to 60%, leading to a stronger dollar and rising 10-year Treasury yields, which suppressed gold's safe-haven demand [1] Gold Market Dynamics - On Monday, gold exhibited a downward trend, following several consecutive red candlesticks after an initial green candlestick, indicating a prevailing selling pressure [2] - The opening price was $3312.23, with a peak at $3321.16, reflecting a gradual decline in price [2] Currency Market Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) showed some volatility on Friday, opening at 98.74, and remained in a fluctuating state, having previously touched a near 32-day low [4] - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data for further direction on the dollar's trajectory [4] Employment Data - The ADP report for May revealed an increase of 275,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 180,000, indicating robust demand for labor, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors [5] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The final value of the Eurozone's May Services PMI was revised down to 53.2 from an initial 53.5, indicating a slowdown in growth despite remaining above the neutral level of 50 [6] - Weak new order growth and declining business confidence in Germany (PMI at 52.1) and France (PMI at 53.7) raise concerns about the overall economic recovery in the Eurozone [6] Federal Reserve Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported moderate economic growth in the U.S. from mid-April to late May, with easing labor market tightness and stable consumer spending, although manufacturing activities face challenges [7] - Overall price pressures are easing, with most regions reporting a slowdown in cost increases [7]

Group 1: Core Perspectives on Euro Internationalization - The Euro has not significantly increased its global role despite being the second-largest currency since its inception in 1999, with its share in international currency usage remaining around 19%, still far behind the US dollar [1][2][3] - The Euro was created primarily for European integration rather than to compete with the dollar, and its internationalization lacks sufficient "hard" support compared to the dollar's backing from the US's economic, political, and military strength [3][4] - The Eurozone's economic performance has lagged behind the US and emerging economies since the 2009 Eurozone crisis, with its share of global GDP declining from 20% to 15% by 2023, which limits the Euro's global influence [4][6] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities for Euro - The Euro's potential rise is hindered by the need for enhanced military strength and strategic autonomy, as reliance on US military power undermines trust in the Euro as a global currency [7][12] - The current international monetary environment presents opportunities for the Euro, as the dollar's dominance is being challenged by US economic policies and a decline in global trust towards the dollar [9][10][11] - To capitalize on these opportunities, the Eurozone must improve its economic vitality, enhance capital market attractiveness, and achieve political consensus among member states to elevate the Euro's international status [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent rise of the Euro as a global currency, contrasting it with the declining dominance of the US dollar, largely attributed to the erratic policies of former President Trump [1][3][6]. Group 1: Euro's Rise - The Euro has reached a near eight-year high against the US dollar, surpassing the 1.14 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 9% [1]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a strategic opportunity as the dollar's credibility diminishes, allowing the Euro to potentially take on a more significant role in the global financial system [6][8]. - The European Free Trade Association has signed 31 agreements covering 75 countries, with an annual trade volume exceeding 2 trillion Euros, establishing the Euro as a stable currency for trade [6]. Group 2: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar index has dropped by 9% since January 20, marking the worst performance for a new president in the first hundred days since 1973 [3]. - The US national debt has surged from $27.7 trillion in 2020 to $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, consuming nearly one-fifth of federal revenue [4]. - Trump's political interference with the Federal Reserve has undermined the dollar's institutional credibility, leading to a loss of its status as a global safe-haven asset [3][4]. Group 3: Global Shift in Currency Preferences - International capital flows are increasingly favoring the Euro, with European equity funds seeing a net inflow of $34.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $19.8 billion for the US [8]. - The share of the dollar in global reserves has decreased from over 70% to 58%, while the Euro, Chinese Yuan, and gold are emerging as key alternatives [8]. - Countries like Russia, Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia are accelerating efforts to establish non-dollar payment systems, indicating a historical peak in the desire to "de-dollarize" the global economy [8].

Group 1 - International gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3300 per ounce, currently reported at $3304.68 per ounce, with a decline of 1.13% [1] - The highest price reached was $3349.78 per ounce, while the lowest was $3292.38 per ounce during the trading session [1] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that if member governments strengthen the financial and security framework of the Eurozone, the euro could become a viable alternative to the dollar, benefiting the Eurozone significantly [2] - Lagarde emphasized the need for a deeper and more liquid capital market, stronger legal foundations, and military strength to support the euro's increased role [2] - Investors, particularly official ones, are seeking geopolitical guarantees and are inclined to invest in regions that are reliable security partners [2] Group 3 - Analyst Christian Borjon Valencia noted that the bullish trend for gold remains intact, with potential testing of last week's high of $3365 per ounce [3] - If gold prices break above $3365, the next targets would be $3400, followed by the May 7 high of $3438 and the historical high of $3500 per ounce [3] - On the bearish side, if gold prices fall below $3300, a decline to the May 20 low of $3204 and then to the 50-day simple moving average of $3199 is expected [3]