Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner due to factors such as limited production cuts in some steel mills in Tangshan, a short - term production - limit period, and a decline in demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [1]. - **Iron Ore**: With an increase in global iron ore shipments and a slight fluctuation in hot - metal output, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Considering the slow resumption of coal mines and the high - level operation of hot - metal output, the coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: As some coke enterprises have received production - limit notices and steel prices are weakly volatile, the coke futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, although there is still some rigid demand support [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: Given the continuous increase in silicomanganese production, low demand from steel mills, and a change in market sentiment, the silicomanganese futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: With continuous growth in ferrosilicon production, weak demand, and limited fundamental driving forces, the ferrosilicon futures price is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Closing Price | Price Change | Trading Volume | Position Change | Spot Price | Supply - Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3132 yuan/ton (2510 contract) | +6 yuan/ton, +0.19% | - | -85,300 lots | Tangshan billet: 3020 yuan/ton; Hangzhou rebar: 3230 yuan/ton | Production decreased, social inventory increased, factory inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased slightly | Volatile and weak | | Iron Ore | 769 yuan/ton (i2601 contract) | -2 yuan/ton, -0.26% | 290,000 lots | -9,000 lots | PB powder: 767 yuan/ton; PB lump: 915 yuan/ton; Carajás fines: 878 yuan/ton; Super Special fines: 648 yuan/ton | Global shipments increased, and hot - metal output fluctuated slightly | Volatile consolidation | | Coking Coal | 1162.5 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -32 yuan/ton, -2.68% | - | -15,151 lots | Lvliang raw coal: 518 yuan/ton; Mongolian coal: decreased | Slow resumption of coal mines, high - level operation of hot - metal output | Volatile | | Coke | 1678 yuan/ton (2601 contract) | -30.5 yuan/ton, -1.79% | - | +644 lots | Rizhao port: 1470 yuan/ton | Production enthusiasm of coke enterprises increased, some received production - limit notices | Volatile | | Silicomanganese | 5836 yuan/ton (main contract) | -2.24% | - | +19,417 lots to 282,100 lots | 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton | Production increased continuously, steel mills' demand was low | Volatile and weak | | Ferrosilicon | 5622 yuan/ton (main contract) | -1.75% | - | -4976 lots to 228,100 lots | 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton | Production increased, supply - demand was in a game | Volatile and weak | [1][3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts for various black commodities over different periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends between different contracts for various black commodities [28][32][34][36][37][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trends such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - **Log**: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - **PTA**: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - **Soybean No.1**: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - **Corn**: Will operate weakly. - **Sugar**: Will be strong with fluctuations. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - **Egg**: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - **Live Pig**: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - **Peanut**: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive worry. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and if economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.15 - 7.23 in the short - term, with the area below 7.20 likely to be the main operating range. The US dollar index may remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting further guidance from the Jackson Hole Meeting [4]. - For stock indices, short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is expected to hover near the pressure line for some time. It is advisable to hold positions and use options for hedging [7]. - For treasury bonds, the bond market is still moving in tandem with the stock market, and the trading sentiment is weak. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can make small - scale purchases [8]. - For container shipping, the EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [11]. Summary by Directory Macro - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1793 on the previous trading day, up 27 basis points. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk [3]. Stock Indices - Yesterday, stock indices rose with reduced volume, and small and medium - cap stocks were relatively strong. Overnight, US stocks continued to fall, and the US dollar index declined. Foreign capital may continue to flow into A - shares, but risk appetite may decline [7]. Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher and then fluctuated, and weakened in the afternoon due to the stock market hitting a new high. The central bank announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [8]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European line) futures prices first oscillated slightly downward and then rebounded. Some new sailings of MSK had slightly higher spot cabin quotes [9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved, and it is advisable to buy on dips [14]. - For copper, it may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to oscillate; for alumina, it may oscillate weakly; for cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to oscillate. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum can be considered for arbitrage [19]. - For zinc, it is mainly expected to oscillate in the short - term [22]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they declined due to the impact of the broader market. They are affected by macro factors and the fundamentals of the industry [23]. - For tin, it is mainly expected to oscillate [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the price may rebound temporarily and then enter a weakening channel. In the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month futures contracts on rallies [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly in the future [28]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to high overseas inventory [30]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The CME "FedWatch" data showed the probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions in September, October, and December. It is advisable to buy on dips for gold and silver [12][13][14]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index declined slightly on Wednesday. First Quantum's Kansanshi copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly increase copper production [16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The US expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800. Alumina is in a state of oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is advisable to consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The main contracts of nickel and stainless steel declined. Spot prices and inventory data are provided, and the market is affected by the broader market and industry fundamentals [23]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index declined slightly on Wednesday. In July, China's refined tin imports increased and exports decreased. The delay in Myanmar's tin mine resumption has supported tin prices [24]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures main contract limit - downed. The lithium ore market sentiment slowed down, and the lithium salt market shipments increased. The price may rebound temporarily and then weaken [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The government held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were weak due to a significant increase in LME inventory. The supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected to oscillate [30]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For steel products, the short - term market has stopped falling and stabilized, but the fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate with reduced volatility, and its price may be stronger than that of steel products in the short - term [37]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and investors should pay attention to risk prevention [40]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is a possibility of a shift from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation [42]. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, steel product prices stopped falling and rebounded. Coal mines are resuming production, and Tangshan's production restriction intensity has increased. The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing [32][33]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market was generally weak, but rebounded in the afternoon. Steel production has been suppressed, and the iron ore price may oscillate [35][37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal's static supply - demand is in a tight balance, and coke's supply has perturbation factors. The market may fluctuate with sentiment, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventories [38][40]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [41]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the overnight market rose slightly, but it will continue to adjust weakly in the short - term. The medium - term risk of a downward break is increasing [44]. - For LPG, the fundamentals remain loose, and the market is affected by news. It is in a state of oscillation [46]. - For PX - PTA, it is advisable to buy on dips to expand the processing margin. In the medium - term, PTA's low processing margin will drive changes [48]. - For MEG, it is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost. In the long - term, the performance of the polyester peak season needs to be observed [51]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near future, and future attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [53]. - For PE, the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [55]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene may oscillate in the short - term, and for styrene, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [56][58]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force of domestic FU is downward [60]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [61]. - For asphalt, the unilateral price is weakly retracting, and the peak season shows no excessive performance. Future attention should be paid to specific measures for the asphalt industry chain [62]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, RU2601 is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see for the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage and buy on dips to expand the price difference between light and dark rubber [67]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [69]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [70]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance, and future attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [71]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, crude oil futures prices rose. The EIA report showed a significant decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory. Geopolitical factors are weakening the support for crude oil [43][44]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The market is affected by news [45][46]. PX - PTA - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. PX supply may increase, and PTA's processing margin is at a low level. The downstream demand is expected to improve [47][48]. MEG - MEG prices rose. The supply - demand is in a fragile balance, and it is expected to remain strong in the short - term [49][51]. PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. PE - PE prices rose. The supply may decrease in September, and the demand is in the process of recovery from the off - season to the peak season [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and it may oscillate in the short - term. Styrene's supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand surplus is decreasing [56][58]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is weak. The export has eased, the feed demand is strengthening, and the power generation demand is weakening [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was low in July, and the demand was weak. The short - term cracking spread has stabilized, and it is advisable to wait and see [61]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are weakening. The supply is stable, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortage. The cost pressure is expected to ease [62]. Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded. The import is increasing steadily, and the inventory pressure is high. The demand is facing challenges, and the cost support is strong [64][67]. Urea - Urea prices rose. The export may boost the price, but the agricultural demand is weakening. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [68][69]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices fell. The supply remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to cost factors [70]. Glass - Glass prices fell. The supply is stable, the demand is in a weak balance, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment changes [71].

2025年08月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪冷淡，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪冷淡，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 铁矿石趋势强度：1 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 21 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏尚未显著回调，支撑仍存 | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 8 月 16 日电，据央视新闻，当地时间 8 月 15 日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【黑色板块超跌，近期或迎反弹上涨行情】8月20日消息，从工业品价格变化看，"反内卷"交易逻辑分 三阶段。一是反内卷预期推升价格快涨；二是情绪降温致价格回调；三是反内卷措施落实、基本面好转 使价格再涨。 当前市场处第二阶段，从情绪高涨到平复再回落。因未看到供给侧收缩落实，暂无具体 措施释放，情绪回落难免。 近日，工信部等六部门联合召开光伏产业会议，聚焦反内卷，今明两天探 讨细节。光伏行业有动作，焦煤等回调的"反内卷"品种将被唤醒。 钢材出口韧性延续、钢厂盈利保 持、钢铁产业基本面变化有限，加上9月美联储降息预期，8月21 - 23日杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会中美联 储主席讲话是关键。黑色板块整体低估值预计上修，超跌后或反弹。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of both volume and price decline. The new production - restriction policy is looser, and there are fewer topics for speculation in the industry. The domestic policy may enter a vacuum period, and the market sentiment is cooling. The impact of pre - parade production restrictions on the total amount is not significant, and attention should be paid to possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment [2]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has significant emotional fluctuations. Although the anti - involution policy provides long - term support, the current high inventory still has a de - stocking pressure. The steelmaking bids are generally positive, and the industry average profit has been greatly repaired [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the seventh round of price hikes. The futures and spot markets are both weak. The market has entered an adjustment phase and is expected to be volatile and weak [5]. - The iron ore market is in an adjustment phase. The future supply increase expectation and large - scale project capacity - release expectation will suppress the price increase. However, the support of the anti - involution policy and possible policy impacts in the steel sector may bring upward opportunities after the adjustment [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Market Performance**: On August 19, the far - month and near - month contract prices of steel futures generally declined. The RB2601 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3403 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The spot market had a decline in both volume and price, and the market sentiment was poor [1][2]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The new production - restriction policy is looser, and the domestic policy may enter a vacuum period. The pre - parade production restrictions have little impact on the total amount, and the short - process power - valley profit is good, which is beneficial to the recovery of the operating rate [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply and demand of building materials were both weak, with a large decline in apparent demand. The plate market improved month - on - month, but the overall demand was in the seasonal off - season, increasing concerns about insufficient demand [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Unilaterally, pay attention to the support of the electric - arc furnace power - valley cost; in the short - term, pay attention to whether there is a stable trend when the price retraces. For arbitrage, do long the 01 volume - screw spread in the band. There are some profit - taking opportunities for the basis [7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - **Market Performance**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have declined with the downward adjustment of the black sector [3]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The anti - involution policy provides long - term support. The steel mills' profits are repaired, and the supply of alloy plants continues to increase, with inventory mainly being destocked [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Stop loss on long positions and wait and see [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The steel mills have not responded to the seventh - round price hikes of coke. The spot market sentiment is average, and the futures market is weak. The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined on August 19, with the J2605 contract closing at 1802 yuan/ton, down 1.02%, and the JM2605 contract closing at 1230 yuan/ton, down 2.73% [1][5]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The safety inspection in the main production areas has little impact on the market. The market is concerned about the imbalance between the supply and demand of steel, and the demand problem has come into the spotlight as the market enters the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the market to be volatile and weak [7]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The black sector is in a volatile trend, and the iron ore market is in an adjustment phase. The iron ore price is affected by the supply increase expectation and large - scale project capacity - release expectation [6]. - **Policy and Industry Environment**: The anti - involution policy continues, and possible future policies in the steel sector may have a greater impact on the iron ore market [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [7].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on August 20, 2025. It provides short - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, production changes, and market sentiment [1][3] Summary by Section Research View - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, with the 2510 contract closing at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. Rebar has been accumulating inventory above the seasonal norm, and weak credit and investment data in July have weakened the supply - demand fundamentals. Some Tangshan steel mills received short - term production restriction notices, but production decline was limited. Meanwhile, some enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region received work - stoppage notices, further reducing demand. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price dropped to 768 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume rose. Iron ore demand, measured by hot metal production, fluctuated slightly at 240.66 tons. Both port and steel mill inventories increased. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1194.5 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. Some domestic mines resumed production, and downstream procurement slowed. However, hot metal production remained high, and coking enterprises' profits improved, leading to high production enthusiasm. The short - term outlook is for a volatile trend [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price increased, with the 2601 contract closing at 1708.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. Coking enterprises' production profits continued to improve, and they were highly motivated to produce. Steel mills' demand for coke remained stable, but low steel prices squeezed steel mill profits, making some downstream parties cautious about coke price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 2.92%. The overall black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Production increased due to improved profits, while demand remained low, and cost support was weak. The short - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price also weakened, with the main contract closing at 5678 yuan/ton, down 3.53%. The black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Downstream production restriction expectations limited demand, while supply increased significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range volatile [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their daily changes [4] - **Profit and Price Ratios**: It also presents data on rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various price ratios such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., along with their daily changes [4] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes historical price charts of the main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows historical basis charts for these commodities, which help analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides historical inter - period contract spread charts for different commodities, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract periods [26][28] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: It includes charts of inter - commodity contract spreads such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][42] - **Rebar Profits**: The report presents historical profit charts for rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, to analyze rebar's profitability [45][47] Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend and strategy outlooks for multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views are as follows: - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite has not significantly declined, and support remains [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is biased towards fundamentals, with weak and volatile trends [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.13%). The open interest increased by 674 to 449,577 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose by 2.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton, while PB fines (61.5%) dropped by 2.0 yuan/ton to 768.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (- 1.48%), with a trading volume of 1,121,791 lots and an open interest of 1,608,694 lots, a decrease of 1,199 lots. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%), with a trading volume of 380,711 lots and an open interest of 1,184,978 lots, a decrease of 17,753 lots. Spot prices generally declined [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month). Other macro and industry data are also provided [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for rebar is - 1 (weak), and for hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2509, the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 44,328 lots and an open interest of 41,200 lots. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5,842 yuan/ton, down 184 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 193,093 lots and an open interest of 114,885 lots. Spot prices also declined [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, the price ranges of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal (JM2601), the closing price was 1,194.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a trading volume of 1,364,959 lots and an open interest of 713,865 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots. For coke (J2601), the closing price was 1,708.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.4%), with a trading volume of 26,198 lots and an open interest of 38,416 lots, a decrease of 129 lots. Spot prices showed mixed trends [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market anticipates the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in global risk - aversion sentiment. The market awaits the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest - rate policy clues, with the US dollar remaining volatile and global risk appetite rising. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations are strengthening, and the short - term uncertainty of tariff risks has decreased, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position strategy. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious watching strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces global risk - aversion, and the market awaits US interest - rate policy clues. Domestically, economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced [2]. - **Asset Performance and Strategies**: The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term (cautious long - position). Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level (cautious watching). Black commodities are expected to correct (cautious watching), non - ferrous metals to oscillate (cautious watching), energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly (cautious watching), and precious metals to oscillate at a high level (cautious watching) [2]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, military, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals and Policy**: China's economic data in July was weak. Policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced. The short - term upward macro - driving force is weakening, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. A short - term cautious long - position strategy is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals declined slightly on Tuesday. The probability of a September interest - rate cut fell below 90%, and inflation data showed resistance to the decline in inflation. - **Outlook**: The long - term positive logic remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points [4]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. - **Fundamentals**: Demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and high - temperature and rainy weather restricts building material demand. Supply is showing signs of reduction, and a short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Steel profits are high, but iron - making water production may decline due to approaching events. Supply is increasing, and port inventory is rising. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Performance**: Spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Manufacturers' production enthusiasm is high, and production capacity is increasing. A short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [6]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main soda ash contract was weak on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern persists, and the upside space is limited [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The main glass contract was weak on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits are decreasing. The price has declined recently [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Market Performance**: The US economy is slowing down, and copper demand is expected to weaken. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may not remain strong in the long run as supply is relatively sufficient and demand is weakening [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices declined on Tuesday, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic social inventory is rising, and the medium - term upside space is limited. The short - term oscillation trend is expected, but the rebound foundation is weakening [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased this week. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high - tariff risks, production resumption expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main lithium carbonate contract declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: There is a short - term positive impact on supply, and the industry profit is improving. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main industrial silicon contract declined on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range as black commodities weaken and polysilicon oscillates [11]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main polysilicon contract declined on Tuesday. - **Fundamentals**: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and the industry is promoting self - regulation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices declined slightly as the market assesses the prospects of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the long term [14]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The asphalt price is following the decline of crude oil, and the spot market is weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern as inventory reduction is limited [14]. PX - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price decline led to a correction in the energy - chemical sector. PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and wait for changes in PTA plants [14]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Pakistan's anti - dumping on PTA exports has a limited impact. Downstream demand has rebounded slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply is limited, and demand is rising slightly. The price is supported but the upside space is restricted [15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Port inventory has decreased slightly, and downstream demand has rebounded. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it will maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly. - **Outlook**: It may continue to be short - sold in the medium term, waiting for further improvement in terminal orders [15]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: There is a regional differentiation, with the inland strong and the port weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [16][17]. PP - **Market Performance**: Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is rising slightly. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season restocking [17]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing signs of improvement. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. The market is waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop tour. - **Field Conditions**: The number of soybean pods in some states is higher than average, and moist soil may promote growth [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has eased. - **Supply Situation**: Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but the purchase of Australian rapeseed may diversify supply sources [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed oil port inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has high - inventory pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: Rapeseed oil supply is expected to shrink, and soybean oil's supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter [19]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: International crude oil and Chicago soybean oil prices declined, which will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil production has a small increase, and exports have improved significantly. However, the inverted price difference may affect future demand [19]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Northeast corn prices are weak, and the market is inactive. - **Supply Outlook**: New corn will be listed in August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. Corn futures are weak [20]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The spot pig price is weak, and the supply is increasing. - **Outlook**: The price decline has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term [20][21].