【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。春节期间建材需求基本停滞，螺纹表需降至冰点，产量维持低位，累库幅度低于往年同期。热卷需求同步 回落，产量相对平稳，库存继续累积。由于钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，铁水产量维持相对低位。从下游行业看，地产 投资降幅继续扩大，春节期间新房销售欠佳，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。在上 海楼市政策进一步优化、两会钢厂限产预期等利好因素支撑下，盘面止跌反弹，持续性有待观察，关注市场风向变化。 【铁矿】 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年02月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054 ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪锌唯一下跌，跌幅达0.04%。沪锡以7.62%的涨幅领涨，沪镍 涨2.32%。其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨0.77%，铸造铝主连涨1.25%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨3.4%，工业硅主连涨0.3%，多晶硅主连跌0.76%。欧线集运主连跌4.76%报 1278.6。 黑色系方面集体飘红，且涨幅均在1%以上，铁矿涨1.42%，不锈钢涨1.24%，螺纹钢涨1.72%，热卷涨 1.19%。双焦方面，焦煤、焦炭均涨2.32%。 外盘方面，截至15:04分，外盘基本金属普涨，伦锡以5.27%的涨幅领涨外盘基本金属，伦镍涨1%。其 余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 【上海市住房城乡建设管理委等五部门印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》 】据上海 住房城乡建设管理公众号消息：为更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发 展，2月25日，市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中心等五 部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2026年2月26 日起施行。一、进一步调减住房 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：春节后首个交易日，螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3027 元/吨，较上 | 偏弱运行 | | | 一交易收盘价格下跌 28 元/吨，跌幅为 0.92%，持仓增加 9.21 万手。现货市场仍基本处于休市局面，局部 | | | | 报价下跌，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 20 元/吨至 2880 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 | | | | 3150 元/吨。据我的钢铁数据，春节周螺纹产量环比增加 1.22 万吨至 170.38 万吨，农历同比下降 7.29 万 | | | | 吨；热卷周产量环比增加 2.05 万吨至 309.81 万吨，农历同比下降 13.62 万吨。春节周螺纹总库存环比增 | | | | 加 129.22 万吨至 716.04 万吨，农历同比增加 62.91 万吨，库存累积幅度偏中性；热卷总库存环比增加 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月24日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證件 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | な女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续下挫。春节期间建材需求基本停滞，螺纹表需降至冰点，产量维持低位，累库幅度低于往年同期。热卷需求同步 回落，产量相对平稳，库存继续累积。由于钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，铁水产量维持相对低位。从下游行业看，地产 投资降幅继续扩大，春节期间新房销售欠佳，基建、制造业投 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silicon manganese is not clearly rated, and silicon iron is marked with unclear symbols [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, and the market sentiment is sluggish, with the disk under short-term pressure. The supply of iron ore is in excess, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. Coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate widely, and silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are affected by oversupply and the "anti-involution" concept [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The disk continued to decline today. During the Spring Festival, the demand for building materials basically stagnated, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped to zero, and the inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. The demand for hot-rolled coil also declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Due to poor steel mill profits and insufficient downstream acceptance capacity, the molten iron production remained at a relatively low level. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is poor, and the market sentiment is sluggish, with the disk under short-term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The disk fell today. The global shipment increased significantly month-on-month, and the domestic port inventory is at a historical high, with heavy concerns about oversupply. The molten iron production increased slightly at a low level before the festival, and it is expected to continue the resumption trend after the festival, with certain restocking needs. Overall, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in iron ore demand, but the pressure of oversupply is relatively greater, and the disk price is still under pressure [3] Coke - The price continued to decline during the day. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season, the steel profit level is average, and the price pressure on raw materials is still strong. The coke disk has a premium, and the coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. It is likely to fluctuate widely [4] Coking Coal - The price continued to decline during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,333 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the spot auction transactions are inversely proportional to the disk fluctuations. Affected by the relatively volatile disk price, the transaction price mainly decreased slightly, and the terminal inventory increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly, and the production end inventory increased slightly. The winter storage demand is coming to an end. Overall, it is likely to fluctuate widely [6] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of Ghana's ban on the export of unprocessed manganese ore. The spot manganese ore transaction price increased slightly, and the disk entered a non-arbitrage space, with relatively limited downward space. The manganese ore port inventory may start to slowly increase, and the mine shipment increased month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price concession space may be relatively limited. The demand-side molten iron production remains at a seasonal low level. The weekly silicon manganese production increased slightly, and there is hardly any significant downward driving force. The silicon manganese inventory increased slightly, and the price is affected by oversupply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept [7] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated during the day. The power cost in some production areas has indeed decreased, the semi-coke price remained flat, and the main production areas are still mainly in losses, but the profit in the Inner Mongolia production area has turned positive. The demand-side molten iron production remains at a low level in the off-season. The export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The silicon iron supply changed little, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price is affected by oversupply and the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept [8]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of lead, which fell by 0.18%. Nickel led the gains with a rise of 1.3%, while other metals saw increases of less than 1% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 10.56% near the close, while polysilicon dropped by 4.03% and industrial silicon rose by 0.54% [1] - In the black metal sector, most commodities declined, with stainless steel increasing by 1.84%, while iron ore fell by 1.79% and rebar and hot-rolled coil both saw declines of around 0.8% [1] - Internationally, base metals were also up, with tin leading at 3.78%, followed by nickel at 2.4% and copper at 1.38% [1] - Precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold down by 0.68% and COMEX silver up by 1.68%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold rose by 3.52% and Shanghai silver surged by 12.84% [1][2] Macro Environment - The Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in an export control list to safeguard national security, prohibiting exports of dual-use items to these entities [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 9.264 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [6] - The US dollar index rose by 0.07% to 97.8, with reports indicating potential new tariffs on several industries by the US government under the guise of national security [7] - Oil prices increased slightly, with WTI up by 0.66% and Brent up by 0.65%, as the market assesses the negotiation landscape between the US and Iran [8]

| | | | | | | | 半色 会 康 好 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/24 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | | | | | (元/吨) ...

肃北工业发展势头劲 【跑好"第一棒" 力促"开门红"】 "目前每天产量稳定在2400吨，达到设计指标的80%，1月预计能完成6万吨产量，一季度朝着20.2万吨 的目标全力冲。"运营改善部主任李洪明介绍，技改升级让企业在首季攻坚中更有底气、更有冲劲。 作为工业经济的"压舱石"，煤炭产业同样势头正劲、干劲十足。在德丰矿业吐鲁东露天煤矿采矿区，大 型挖掘机挥舞铁臂精准作业，重型运输车穿梭往来、忙而有序。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，肃北县锚定工业主导的发展方向，有色金属、黑色金属、煤炭等核心产业 拧成一股绳、齐头并进，全力打响一季度生产攻坚的"第一枪"。 责任编辑：杨晨雨 新甘肃·甘肃日报记者 董文龙 通讯员 董新龙 机器轰鸣声此起彼伏，浮选槽内矿浆翻滚，工人们在生产线上忙碌……走进肃北县霍勒扎德盖北东矿业 选厂，扑面而来的是争分夺秒的紧迫感，涌动的是实干快干的热潮。 "我们提前排好了春节期间的班次，备足各类物料，确保节日期间生产不断档、产能不掉线。"公司常务 副总经理马斌语气坚定。北东矿业作为肃北县有色金属产业的"排头兵"，这条高速运转的生产线，正是 肃北工业经济加速快跑的生动写照。 技术升级正成为黑色金属领 ...

2020-2026年1月下旬线材（Φ8—10mm，HPB300）市场价格变动统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国超微细电子线材行业市场行情动态及投资潜力研究报 告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据，黑色金属类别下的线材（Φ8—10mm，HPB300）2026年1月下旬市场价格 为3370.8元/吨，同比下滑4.74%，环比下滑0.8%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2022年1月下旬达到最大 值，有4896.5元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a clear structural differentiation, with precious metals leading the market, while non-ferrous and new energy metals also performed well. The year 2026 is expected to see a moderate economic recovery and a more accommodative liquidity environment, with investment strategies focusing on selecting sectors and controlling pace as key to success [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to recover moderately in 2026, with an upward trend in the global manufacturing cycle and a stable domestic economy despite differentiation. Inflation and corporate profits are likely to rise moderately [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lower global short-term rates, further enhancing the upward potential of the global manufacturing cycle [3]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The core feature of the capital market in 2026 will be a multi-dimensional "K" type differentiation, characterized by strong external factors versus weak internal factors, old versus new economy, AI versus non-AI, and supply bottlenecks versus supply elasticity [3][4]. - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are anticipated to be the main asset allocation varieties in 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The allocation value of precious metals continues to rise, making them one of the main varieties for 2026. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. strategic shift towards Europe and South America are expected to enhance gold's safe-haven and allocation value [4]. - The growth in gold ETFs, particularly in European countries, reflects the increasing allocation value of gold [4]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The pricing logic of non-ferrous metals is undergoing reconstruction, with a likely upward trend in price centers in 2026. Demand from sectors such as new energy, data centers, and infrastructure investment is driving this change, while traditional real estate demand is declining [4]. - Major countries, led by the U.S. and China, are focusing on resource and key mineral reserves, which will significantly alter short-term supply-demand balance and drive non-ferrous metal prices higher [4]. Group 5: Black and Energy Chemical Sectors - The black metal sector is expected to present limited investment opportunities in 2026, with a tendency towards oscillation due to significant supply elasticity in the industrial chain [5]. - The energy chemical sector offers opportunities primarily in the stock market, with a focus on left-side interventions as capacity cycles peak. The polyester industry is noted for its relatively better fundamentals [5]. Group 6: Geopolitical Factors - Despite an overall optimistic outlook for the commodity market in 2026, a single upward trend is unlikely. Geopolitical disturbances are identified as a key factor influencing market rhythm, with a pattern of "seasonal price increases and actual declines" expected to continue [6][7]. - Geopolitical conflicts may create short-term panic, leading to indiscriminate declines in asset valuations, but these are not expected to evolve into systemic risks. Investors are encouraged to seek out undervalued assets during these periods [7].